Hrkn to .. The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Finding an optimal asset allocation

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 14:01:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that the S&P 500 has just set a new all-time high, with the UK getting close too. Despite the war in in the Middle East, markets must believe that they've seen it all before and that the war won't last long. But there are longer-term issues to address if not, including the status of the dollar, supply chain issues and national security, with a move from Just In Time to Just In Case. This year the best performer has been Latin America while the UK has beaten the US. If you want dependable stodge and think the emphasis will continue to be on commodities and raw materials, then both areas look sensible. Russ also discusses Japan. Investors need to think about their sectoral and geographical mix as well as valuation. This can go a long way towards helping you find an optimal asset allocation.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Billington Holdings & Devolver Digital

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:42:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers of Edison Group highlights Billington Holdings, a steel specialist with a market cap of £50m which makes frames for large buildings. Listed on AIM, it restructured and consolidated operations last year, increasing capacity. Recently it has won a raft of new contracts. The company focusses on training its own staff, has a strong balance sheet with zero debt and will report results in a couple of weeks. Chloe Wong looks at Devolver Digital, an indie games publisher of third party and in-house video games. Its full-year results were encouraging in a flat gaming market. Indie games are expected to perform strongly and the company, which has made significant operational improvements since its 2021 IPO, is well positioned and at a significant discount to fair value. More information is available on the Edison website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The one-year anniversary of Liberation Day

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 14:34:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell marks the first anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The overall impact hasn't been as great as feared at the time, with tariffs settling around 10-13%. Since then, the dollar has gone down, US equities have underperformed and US bond yields have generally gone up. The concept of the US being the only game in town has been reassessed, while supply chain management and national security in all its ramifications have come to the fore. In all this, the UK isn't the worst place to be invested in, thanks to the heavy emphasis on oils, mining and staples, which do well in times of uncertainy. The UK isn't immune if there's a worldwide recession but it does offer some balance and ballast.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: P Z Cussons & Shepherd Neame

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 15:27:00 -0000

Chloe Wong of Edison Group discusses P Z Cussons, best known in the UK for brands like Imperial Leather and Carex. But this 140-year-old firm has a large international portfolo of consumer goods. Recently it has been concentrating its activities and geographical areas while reducing the number of brands. It has also increased its emphasis on marketing. With a 5% yield, it's a dependable stock in troubled times. Shepherd Neame is another heritage brand, having been brewing since 1698. As well as beers like Spitfire and Bishop's Finger, it is a hotel and pub company with a tenanted estate. Again it's the sort of company investors like when things are turbulent. Although cost and wage inflation is affecting the sector, this is manageable. 85% of its estate is freehold and the NAV is £182m against a market cap of £82m. With a yield over 5% it is looking attractively priced. More information on both companies is available on the Edison website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why are banking shares doing so badly?

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 15:01:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that in the past five years, banks have been the second best UK performers after Aerospace & Defence. The five in the FTSE are forecast to generate almost a quarter of its profits for 2026 and pay out a fifth of its dividends. This year, though, the banks are in the middle of the pack and down for the year. They certainly earned their run, making record profits when, half a decade ago, you could barely give them away. But the valuations now aren't as compelling as they were, buybacks are being withdrawn, US and European banks have been weak and there are worries about exposure to private equity. As a result, markets are not taking any chances and investors must balance valuation and returns against potential risks.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Greggs & Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 15:50:00 -0000

Liam O'Byrne of Edison looks at Greggs, the leading on-the-go food retailer, which has a £1.75bn market cap. Their full-year results showed operating profits dimming a little although like-for-like sales and market share were up, despite a gently-declining market. The company expands in such an efficient way that it is reasonable to be optimistic about the company's future.

Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust, managed by Baillie Gifford, specialises in businesses that have significant disruptive potential at the frontier of technological innovation. Space X accounts for 16.6% of assets. Facing prolonged activist pressure, they've announced a tender offer which Liam explains. It is an example, though, of a broader issue facing investment trusts sitting at a discount. But it does at least encourage boards to be more responsive to the interests of shareholders.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to war in the Gulf

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 08:29:00 -0000

Russ Mould says that investors can't ignore what is happening in the Gulf, which has seen a jump in volatility and sharp declines in some of the investments that been doing best but which had little downside protection. Despite this, the broader US market is roughly where it was a week before. Oil is up by a fifth, but that is still much less than during other Middle Eastern crises. For investors, though, the important thing is not to panic. If you had good reasons for your investments before, then be patient, seek diversification and value and avoid leveraged situations. Energy stocks like BP and Shell account for 10% of the FTSE by market cap and the market is saying the oil price is about right. Oil service companies could be worth a thought if the conflict lasts longer than expected but the only one the UK has left now is Hunting.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: BP and Wheaton Precious Metals

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 16:18:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers of Edison says that BP is going through a strategic reset. Its full year results show a strong underlying performance. There's a big divestment programme under way. Buybacks have been suspended to strengthen the balance sheet while Capex has been trimmed as the company refocusses on what it does best.

Wheaton Precious Metals is a $70 billion company and yet it only has 44 employees. It's the world's largest precious metals streaming company. It doesn't mine anything but finances mining companies up front in return for a share of the revenue. Their margins have exploded as precious metals prices have risen. They have signed a new deal with BHP which is the single most valuable streaming transaction ever. They are the highest-growth name in the streaming space.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Has the AI software shakeout gone too far?

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 15:54:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that AI interest has switched from looking for winners to searching for potential losers. But it's been indiscriminate and has included quality software services and data analytic companies. They have a walled garden of data, sticky customers, high margins, predictable cash flows and consistent dividend growth. In fact, their share prices peaked last year, probably because they were on very high ratings compared to the market and thus had a small margin of safety. The question now is, when are the doubts priced in? What multiple would you be prepared to pay, given that the market is on a 13.5 PE and that they mostly have proprietary data which can't be scraped by AI?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: HG Capital Trust & Patria Private Equity Trust

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 14:39:00 -0000

Liam O'Byrne of Edison Group highlights HG Capital Trust, a £2bn private equity investment trust in the FTSE 250 which specialises in unquoted software companies in Europe and North America. It was recently hit by the widespread worries about AI's effect on software businesses but in fact most SMEs don't have the ability or confidence to develop their own in-house software and, as a result, HGT's shares have recovered somewhat. However, they are still at a 17% discount to NAV whereas normally there's little or no discount. With AI complicating things so much, it makes sense to get exposure to the sector through good fund managers. Patria Private Equity Trust is an £850m investment trust which concentrates on lower and mid-market companies and is at a 28% discount to NAV. It anticipates a strong rebound in 2026 with many investments ripe for realisation. It aims to exit half of its top 10 holdings this year.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The wild ride for gold and silver

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 15:10:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the precious metals meltdown and the ongoing volatility, with silver diving from $122 to $72. He reminds us, though, that both gold and silver are still up 9-10% in a month. Russ runs through the things that might have caused the collapse, including Trump's appointment to the Fed chair, that things had gone too far too fast, that leveraged positions were flushed out and the changes in Comex's margin requirements. But what has changed apart from the price? Nothing, really, so bears and bulls of precious metals are still likely to feel as they did before the past week. It's notable that miners have been nowhere near as volatile as the metals and we are about to see results from some of the majors. Will this be an opportunity? How indeed do you value gold and silver? Russ compares them to other commodities.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Foxtons & Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 16:44:00 -0000

Liam O'Byrne of Edison Group says that leading London estate agency Foxtons are at the crossroads of an exciting new chapter. They have set a much more optimistic growth target and are expanding beyond the London area, which could be the precursor to a wider rollout. They have a very rich historical database which is being leveraged with AI to outpace the opposition. He also highlights Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust which tries to identify exceptional businesses, both private and public. They were an early backer of SpaceX which is heading for a potentially record-breaking IPO later this year, yet they're at a discount to net asset value. They focus on disruptive companies which are hard to value but have significant potential upside.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Investing in the age of Trump

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 14:52:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell asks what lessons we can draw from Donald Trump’s speech at Davos, an event Russ would normally ignore. We know Trump likes to deal and to keep the US stock market happy and running hot. We can probably expect market volatility and there are indications that it makes sense not being too over-exposed to US equities. Investors keen to protect themselves should opt for shares that aren’t so highly-priced, which applies to lots of UK stocks. American shares are now such a high proportion of the world stock market that it makes sense to diversify away. The FTSE All-World ex-US index has broken out to a new all-time high. Once you go above a previous peak, momentum can be very strong. The UK has had 3 or 4 bids already this year including one for a FTSE100 company. You can still make a valuation case for the UK.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Greggs & BP

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 14:46:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that Greggs' shares are off almost 40% over the past couple of years. Like other fast food companies, weight loss jabs are having an effet on their business. But the recent Q4 update confirmed that the company will meet their profit expectations and the management team has a great track record of executing growth. Although they could simply farm their estate, further growth is worth pursuing and the price fall gives investors an entry opportunity. BP was the second best-performing oil major last year and now has a clear strategy of returning to its roots which appears to be bearing fruit. The numbers are encouraging and it should make new ground this year.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Trump's interest in Venezuela

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 14:55:00 -0000

Musing on President Trump's interest in Venezuela, Russ Mould of A J Bell believes that second-guessing geopolitics is brutally difficult, although he can see why defence stocks are back in vogue. While Venezuela's oil has been much discussed, the United States doesn't really need more oil, thanks to shale. However, China does, which might make the country seem more interesting to Trump. However, there are plenty of other commodities there too. In the markets, gold, silver and now copper are at new highs. The latter has plenty of practical applications, including being needed for EVs. But it takes 10 years to bring a mine onstream. It's interesting that the commodity indices have remained so depressed despite these gains, but the indices are weighed down heavily by oil and gas. If markets are right to expect decent economic growth, then it's not a bad environment for commodities and cyclicals.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Reflections on 2026 and what might lie ahead?

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 12:00:00 -0000

The big stories of 2025 – Trump and AI – are likely to feature heavily in 2026, says Fergus Caheny of Evelyn Partners. Will the eye-watering expenditure we have seen produce enough profitability to justify the high ratings? He does not feel prices are yet in bubble territory but thinks the baton will change to concentrate on those companies that supply this year's AI winners. With the American mid-term elections coming up, investors will also be keen to know who will be the new Chair of the Federal Reserve. The UK economy has had a chequered year but, while UK markets offer some benefits, investors should look to diversify not just among sectors, but geographically too. Fergus believes that growth in India and the Asian subcontinent will become a big theme.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: 5 investment themes for 2026

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 17:12:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell comments that, given the headwinds buffetting markets in 2025, you would hardly expect it to have been such a fantastic year for assets. He suggests 5 topics for investors to consider in 2026: interest rates; AI; commodities; small caps; and cash returns. Monetary and fiscal policy (except taxes in the UK) was generally stimulative and looks likely to continue. We have little direct involvement in AI so, if it blows up, the UK will be less affected than other markets. Miners and oils have been great performers this year but the profit upgrades we're now seeing are mostly because of metal miners. Small caps have been nowhere to be seen. Why? It is not healthy if the small and medium-sized companies that employ 90% of workers are struggling. UK investors have seen over £180bn returned to them in 2025. That's over a 6% return on the All-Share Index, which should continue to support UK shares if things continue as they are.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A steady gilts yield helps equities

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 15:42:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that Rachel Reeves' Budget was delivered with an eye on the bond markets. Fortunately for her, the 10-year gilt has been steady since, even if it is higher than when Labour took over and has moved in a different direction to BoE interest rates. All equity investors have an interest in gilt yields, whether they know it or not. Russ reckons this year could be the UK's best performance since 2009. Derided as being dull for being heavy with banks, miners and emerging markets, those have all been good performers, while the once-popular dividend compounders have seen only 1 in the top 20 risers. They got ahead of a sensible value.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: BP & Games Workshop

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 15:27:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers of Edison discusses BP, which has changed strategy to give an emphasis to shareholder return, increasing investment in oil & gas by 20% while reducing transition investment by 70%. The company will be focussing on cost reductions and efficiency, strengthening its balance sheet and reducing net debt.

Neil Shah of Edison returns to the topic of Games Workshop, which he has mentioned here before on more than one occasion. This one-time small company has now entered the FTSE and the shares are up 40% this year. It's an exceptionally well-run business and its Warhammer figurines will become even better known when the Amazon TV series approaches production. It has a very progressive dividend and, while it is on a PE of 30, it is a niche business that should keep growing at pace.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to the Budget & Baker Steel Resources Trust

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 15:38:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group says markets were relieved that the Budget did nothing to undermine confidence. Banks reacted positively, as did Rank, along with wealth managers and financial services, as it will be increasingly punitive to save or invest outside a tax wrapper. High end housebuilders suffered and the tax increases won't help the consumer sector. For somebody looking for exposure to precious and strategic metals, Neil highlights the closed-end Baker Steel Resources Trust. It has increased net asset value 40% in a year. It trades on a 35% discount, as do many in the sector, but Neil feels over the long term this should narrow. Info on Edison website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Anomalies in capex sector spending

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 15:01:00 -0000

In the wake of Nvidia's 3rd quarter results, Russ Mould of A J Bell says that all capital expenditure booms come to an end because of over-investment. It is too soon to say how this one will turn out. He is intrigued, though, that AI tech needs energy and mined metals and yet capex in those sectors is very low. With AI, we need to see some return on the money invested. If it turns out to be the productivity boom we've been looking for, then people's perceptions towards mining and energy should change, although in both those fields it takes some time for capex to bear fruit.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The healthcare sector & Rockwood Strategic

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 15:36:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that the heathcare sector has had a torrid time recently but that many of the risks that caused the rerating are vanishing. Positives include demographics, innovation and the patent cliff, which is increasing M&A activity. He mentions some good specialist investment trusts worth considering.

He also feels that small caps might soon come into their own, with Budget changes possibly benefitting them. There is plenty of value there and Rockwood Strategic, with a concentrated portfolio of just 25 stocks, has a really good track record, aiming for a 15% annual RoR. It's worth looking at their well-designed website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The Budget & the importance of the 10-year gilt yield

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 10:59:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell and author of the Telegraph's Questor column wonders why the Chancellor gave a speech about giving a speech, comparing it to Hugh Dalton having to resign in 1947 for letting slip something in the Budget. But the Budget will be important for affecting the 10-year gilt yield, seen as the risk-free rate. Any other investments should be priced to provide higher returns. As examples, utilities are seen as bond proxies as there's little expected capital growth, whereas discounted cash flow models are used to price tech stocks. If the 10-year yield rises, it decreases the value of equities and vice versa. Investors should always bear in mind its importance.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Primary Health Properties & UK market prospects

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 14:47:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison group feels that Primary Health Properties, which does what it says on the tin, will benefit from the takeover of Assura. 80-90% of its income is backed by the government so the shares can be compared to gilts, except that the company will produce growth and rising dividends. It's on a prospective yield of 7.7%. He is also upbeat on the UK market. American investors are looking for value, yield and safety outside the US and, despite all the doom and gloom, there are positive signs in the UK. Neil thinks there will be a Santa rally this year.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Will there be a meltdown – or a meltup?

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 14:12:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that he is being bombarded with questions about whether there will be a market meltdown. On the negative side are government debt and interest bills which inhibit growth and might lead to a deflationary bust; soaring private debt; the private credit wobble; unbalanced markets; and high valuations. On the positive side the US economy might run hot as Trump wants; central banks might cut interest rates; and AI could produce an amazing productivity boom. Nervous investors should maintain a diversified portfolio and keep nothing that is giving you ulcers or sleepless nights.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Where now for gold?

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 13:17:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell considers what might happen to gold. How safe is it riding such a volatile bull? Gold, after all, generates no income. The price appears to be responding to a loss of central bank control, galloping debt and stubborn inflation, as well as central bank buying after US sanctions on Russia. The run may have gone far enough but investors who are interested should remember the importance of being diversified. Russ points out that silver and platinum are still very cheap relative to gold while oil is at relative multi-year lows. Mining stocks tend to lag the metal. Russ mentions a few but thinks broad mining ETFs could be more sensible.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Card Factory & Boku

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 13:53:00 -0000

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group highlights the cards, gifts and party essentials company Card Factory. Recent results show store revenue up 1.5% like for like. Costs have risen 4.4% but the company is mitigating this and is shifting focus online.

Mobile payment company Boku were made Company of the Year at the AIM Awards. They're a good example of how fintechs are growing. Boku, capitalised over £600m, are working with some very large international businesses. Revenue is up 27% like for like, they are delivering growth, improving profitability and have plenty of cash to keep investing. Edison believe there's a 60% upside. Notes for both companies are on the website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What gilt yields mean for equities

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 13:48:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell remarks on the Bank of England slowing down its gilt sales. The 10-year gilt, currently 4.7%, is seen as the risk-free rate against which other bonds are rated, the risks with them being inflation, interest rates, credit risk and liquidity. With equities, there's a mysterious turning point where institutions feel it's safer to be in gilts. After its rise, the UK market isn't as attractive as it was. The cash yield on the FTSE is a lttle north of 6%. 19 of its companies offer more than the risk-free rate. The old rule of thumb was that if it's double, as one company is, it's "too good to be true". Where do we go from here, though, with a moribund economy and the UK still adding to its debts?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Next's outlook for the economy & Springfield Properties

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:55:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group admires Next for its forward planning and economic predictions. Its latest report anticipates anaemic growth, depressed by poor job opportunities, excess government spending and regulation and a rising tax burden. Coming on top of news that fund managers are dumping UK equities at the fastest rate in 20 years, it feels like a turning of the tide. On a more optimistic note, he says that housebuilder Springfield Properties is pivoting its portfolio to build housing to take advantage of green-related construction in the north of Scotland and feels that there's a long way to go.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Doctor Copper

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 14:43:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell returns to the topic of mining, particularly copper, in the wake of the link-up of Anglo American and Teck Resources. Copper is a great guide to the economic weather, with many industrial uses and being essential to electrification. Although nobody seems to be discussing it, Teck was trading at a big discount and has many possible synergies with Anglo. Russ also discusses some of the many indicators he finds useful as a guide to what markets are thinking.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Futronic & BP

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:54:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers of Edison highlights Futronic, an AIM-listed UK technology company specialising in extremely-high-frequency radio solutions for space, defence and communications. They've recently seen a sharp increase in growth and new contracts with Space X now account for almost half their revenue. Although it has a high rating, this reflects the step change in Futronic's growth rate. He also discussed BP, which has shifted back to its roots, focussing on shareholder returns and reducing costs.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Miners and commodities

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 13:53:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests that miners and commodities are looking interesting. Greek energy and commodity giant Metlen is about to join the FTSE 100 although only 20% of it is metals-related (the rest is in energy). But gold and silver have been on a tear, copper is up, as is iron ore,and yet commodities are still at a multi-year cyclical low. Investors need to be careful about investing in indvidual companies, given the problems just revealed at Hochshild. But exposure to a basket of mining and commodity companies could be sensible.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Edison Group's quarterly consumer report

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 14:18:00 -0000

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group takes Simon Rose through their quarterly Consumer Watch report. The second quarter was hit by shocks like US tariffs while the labour market in the UK softened. Consumer confidence was weak here, in Europe and in North America, though 12 of the UK's 16 subsectors outperformed the market. Among undervalued companies with earnings momentum identified by Edison are Card Factory, Curry's and Trainline. The full report is on the Edison Group website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Could Rolls-Royce top the FTSE?

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 13:40:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell is intrigued by Rolls-Royce's CEO saying his company is capable of being the largest in the FTSE. It's currently sixth. He also said he saw no need to moving the listing to the US as others have done, despite half its revenue coming from Stateside. Russ explains why US stocks are on almost double the UK rating and explains why switching the listing is not a free ticket to a higher multiple. But in any case, the era of big cap growth won't last for ever and investors may find better value elsewhere.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why the UK stock market is so buoyant

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 14:01:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains the impressive performance of the UK stock market, with the FTSE passing 9,000 for the first time. UK equities have outperformed those in the US this year despite the dollar having fallen 10%. As Russ has said regularly in this spot, unloved can mean undervalued and that appears to be the case. With regular M&A activity and buybacks, it's estimated the All-Share is on an effective 6.6% yield so a good deal of cash is coming back to investors. The economic picture in the UK may be dire, but don't forget that two-thirds of the FTSE's earnings come from overseas.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Metlen Update & Hercules

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 15:20:00 -0000

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group returns to the topic of Athens-listed energy & metals company Metlen. Expanding into the defence equipment supply chain, its stragegy remains capex-led and organically financed. Its arrival on the London market in August will be the biggest listing of the year and the £5bn company will qualify for entry to the FTSE, making it a unique and attractive new stock.

Finlay Mathers of Edison highlights a relatively small labour supply company listed on AIM. Hercules is worth £34m and recently made a big acquisition. Its revenues are rising, its margins stable and the market in areas like power transmission is growing. Although little known, the company is trying to increase the level of retail interest.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why the Fed and US bonds will be so vital during Trump's presidency

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 14:18:00 -0000

Fergus Caheny of Evelyn Partners says investors cannot ignore what is currently happening in the US, where Trump is unhappy with Jay Powell, the Chair of the Fed. It's a politically independent job with nine months to run and Trump cannot sack him. But there's talk of a shadow Fed chair which could challenge the incumbent. With growing unease at the growth of the US deficit, the bond markets are flashing amber at a time when more investors are turning to them as they offer better rates than for years. Bonds will be one of the most important stories over the next four years of Trump's presidency.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: BP & JP Morgan European Discovery Trust

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 14:51:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group feels BP is going through a transformation under a new management team although, like Rolls Royce, it will take time to gain traction. Reducing debt will make the company a less risky business but it is a key income provider with a progressive dividend policy and a secure income stream so its 6.5% yield is attractive.

J P Morgan European Discovery Trust is indicative of the greater confidence in European economies where interest rates have stabilised. The fund has pivoted away from sector bets to stock selection and has an impressive record of finding small companies that prove to be big winners.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Foxtons & Record plc

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 14:12:00 -0000

Chloe Wong Yun Shing of Edison Group looks at London estate agency Foxtons, which operates in lettings, sales and financial services. It has 6% of the market and expects to move beyond London through acquisitions. It is pivoting towards lettings, which will reduce cyclical volatility. Edison's analysts feel the shares are only half their fair value. Record plc is a specialist asset manager for institutions focussing on currency and derivative management. While full year results saw a drop in revenue and profits, assets under management remained solid at over $100m. It's a cash-generative business with no debt and a yield of 8% supports the shares.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to the Middle East conflict

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 09:01:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell, declaring himself no expert in geopolitics, is suprised that markets have not put a bigger risk premium on oil in the past few days. Clearly investors are hopeful that there is not going to be a major escalation. He discusses the rise in the gold price, up 46% in a year in dollar terms, pointing out how expensive it is historically compared to oil and various other commodities. Those investors who fear inflation will probably take a different view on how to structure their portfolios than those who are more worried about a slowdown, recession or even debt deflation.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Chemring & Avon Technologies

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 14:52:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers of Edison Group looks at two companies benefitting from increased spending on defence. After some problems last year, Chemring now has a £1.3bn record order book. The company mainly focusses on counter measures and its recent results were very positive. Avon Technologies specialises in military headgear and respiratory equipment. 50% of its revenue comes from the US Department of Defense. Although profitability had been under pressure following an acquisition, the company is seeing higher than expected growth and things look very satisfactory.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Financials and banks

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 12:22:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that financial stocks have been performing really well of late, partly because things have been boring for them, with nothing untoward happening, while the yield curve is working in their favour. Banks will benefit from supply chains being brought home. They're difficult for private investors to analyse and there's a risk of performance chasing but, if they generate double-digit returns, there could be more to go. Russ highlights the banks value investors might favour and those offering decent yields, especially the big banks, which are also engaged in buybacks.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Baillie Gifford investment conference

Thu, 29 May 2025 14:45:00 -0000

Chloe Wong Yun Shin of Edison Group highlights two of the Baillie Gifford funds that presented at the company's recent conference. The US Growth Trust's manager is still very excited about American companies. They are very volatile, so patience is crucial, but the fund remains a conviction investor, in it for the long term. The Schiehallion Fund specialises in later stage private businesses, particularly those capable of transformational growth. Ever more businesses are staying private longer. In the US 87% of companies with over $100m revenue are private. The Fund is aiming to list on the main UK market in the first quarter of 2026.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why silver could be of interest

Thu, 22 May 2025 14:45:00 -0000

Fixed interest investors, says Russ Mould of A J Bell, are concerned that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will add to the US's current $36 trillion debt pile, with debt interest already accounting for a fifth of the US tax take. Things that serve as hedges against inflation, stagflation or policy error, such as gold, are rising again. Is silver – challenging the $33-an-ounce level again – being unduly overlooked? A recent bid could mean many miners are undervalued, particularly given the conductive metal's many uses in the move to net zero and the fact that demand has outstripped supply for the last five years. As the price climbs, so the miners become more profitable and nervous investors may find silver worth considering.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How two tech funds view the AI revolution

Thu, 15 May 2025 14:00:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Capital discuss two tech funds heavily involved in AI. Polar Capital's successful Technology Fund has recently shifted massively into the field, with an 80-90% exposure to AI. Focussing on the middle section of the company life cycle, its managers say that AI is on an exponential curve, much like the development of early skyscrapers. Molten Ventures is a publicly-quoted VC fund concentrating on early stage AI, with exposure to R&D and startups. It has plenty of cash ready for seizing interesting opportunities. Both managers consider AI not to be a trend, but a fundamental shift in technology.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How tariffs and trade deals affect the market and companies

Thu, 08 May 2025 13:49:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that markets are hoping that trade deals might be in the offing to reduce the effect of President Trump's tariffs. It is too early to tell if this is a triumph of hope over expectation or if the UK will be one of the first companies to strike a deal with the US and reduce the effect of tariffs. Russ goes through some of the companies which have explained how they will be affected by American tariffs and which might benefit from the Indian trade deal.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Metlen & IP Group

Thu, 01 May 2025 14:01:00 -0000

Chloe Won Yung Shin of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye out for Metlen. It's a Greek energy and metals company with a €6bn market cap heading for a second listing in London later in the year, where it may join the FTSE100. It's Europe's only aluminium producer and has an increasing interest in producing critical metals.

IP Group invests in intellectual property businesses, mainly in the UK. As a result of recent headwinds it is trading at over 70% discount to net asset value. But there are plenty of positives about the business. Both are discussed on Edison's website. https://www.edisongroup.com

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How to cope with volatile markets

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 13:46:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that when the US President doesn't know what's happening next, how can anybody else, particularly when the reasons given for imposing tariffs are so contradictory? Investing should be about sleeping well at night. If your investments are keeping you awake, perhaps you should make them safer. Think about asset allocation and whether America – and tech stocks – will lead the way in future. Have some spare cash in case you need it and you may be able to take advantage of volatile market dips. As Warren Buffett says, stock markets are there to enable the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rolls-Royce

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 14:47:00 -0000

FInlay Mathers of Edison Group discusses Rolls-Royce which, under new management, met all its turnaround targets two years early and confounded investors' attitudes towards its business, comprising civil aviation, aerospace and power systems. The shares are above the industry average but it's a fantastic business whose air business has a "power by the hour" model linking it to the upturn in global air travel, while its defence order book is up by 89%. The future may be bumpy, but the business is very sound.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Michelmarch Bricks and Smiths News

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 14:45:00 -0000

Chloe Won Yung Shin of Edison Group discusses Michelmarch Bricks' recent results. It makes 122m bricks and pavers a year, has a strong balance sheet and should benefit from the UK's structural shortage of housing. On a discount to its peers, it has 7% of the market with further upside potential. Andy Murphy, director of content for Industrials at Edison is intrigued by Smiths News. A regional distributor of newspapers and magazines, it is handling a declining market well, stripping costs back and diversifying by collecting dry waste from those shops it delivers to. It's a cash generative business that has long been ignored and undervalued and yields twice its PE.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Investment in the light of Reeves & tariffs

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 15:48:00 -0000

Russ Mould says that with the OBR lowering its growth and raising its inflation target, stagflation looks even more likely. The concept of "fiscal headroom", he says, is pure rhubarb but the bond market seemed content with what Rachel Reeves had to say, even though the UK's interest bill is higher than the defence budget. However, tariffs are going to complicate things. With the NASDAQ this year's worst market so far and Hong Kong the best, the mood music is changing. Investors must think about whether the environment for the next ten years is going to be different than the previous ten.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The shift from US markets to Europe & BAE Systems

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 14:54:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss the move by investors out of the US and into the UK and other European markets, as Trump's tariffs produce a downturn for the American economy and equities. The UK market is far cheaper, has less downside, and it doesn't take much money moving from the big seven US megacaps to stimulate change in European markets. Finlay also discusses BAE Systems which is up 25% in the past twelve months. As a beneficiary of increased defence spending and with an order backlog of £78bn, it has strong growth potential, especially in maritime and armoured vehicles.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What do US tariffs mean for the UK?

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:09:00 -0000

Everyone is asking what American tariffs mean for the UK, says Russ Mould of A J Bell. The UK isn't currently in the firing line, except for steel, but this may change next month because of VAT. 13% of global trade involves the US. For the UK, it totals £280bn, much less than with the EU. Trying to second guess what will happen is a fool's errand. Investors should go back to fundamentals. So far UK and European equities are not as volatile as in the US, partly because our markets are cheaper. American contacts claim that, unlike last time, Trump is less interested in the stock market than in the bond market, attempting to tackle America's bloated debt while keeping the treasury rate under control. Trump can't run for another term, but he might be concerned about his legacy.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Accsys Technologies & Greggs

Mon, 10 Mar 2025 11:43:00 -0000

Chloe Won Yung Shin and Neil Shah of Edison Group highlight Accsys Technologies after their recent investor day. The company uses its patented process to turn fast-growing sustainable softwoods into tough, long-lasting wood. It has overcome past cost overruns and changed management. Now underpromising and over-delivering, it has huge potential. In its preliminary results, Greggs revealed that it is having a tough time in the difficult consumer environment but it is expanding its evening trade and digital offering and performing well. The recent sharp fall in the share price means that it looks attractive on a historical basis.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: UK earnings season and corporate prospects

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 15:34:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that while the UK economy may look gloomy, it is not the stock market. With earnings season under way, 82 companies are doing better than expected, with 72 doing worse, so things look moderately positive. Remember of course, that the majority of FTSE company profits are earned overseas. With buybacks significantly ahead of last year, the cash yield is 4.5-5%. The UK is cheap compared to the US, on 28 times forward earnings. But they are more exposed to technology and, let's face it, the Americans are more ruthless and work harder. Russ also gives his views on whether the Government should be trying to get more people to invest.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Edison's ConsumerWatch report & BAT

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 14:52:00 -0000

Russell Pointon of Edison Group discusses their latest ConsumerWatch report. Despite weak consumer confidence and low economic growth, the sector did well at the end of 2024. Looking ahead, they expect progress from every sub-sector. Those likely to prove consistently strong are hotels, restaurants and leisure with 27 companies highlighted, among them Topps Tiles, Deliveroo, M&S, Next and Hollywood Bowl. The report is on the Edison website. Russell also discussed BAT, which has just had full-year results. They anticipate getting half their revenue in future from smokeless products. It's a company that is innovating and, as a result, better growth and profits are coming through.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Activist investors in BP and elsewhere

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 11:06:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at activist investors in the wake of Elliott's interest in BP, listing the many companies in similar positions. He explains the four principal things they are looking for and they only tend to get loud and aggressive if they feel they are being ignored. Any CEOs whose companies fit the criteria should be prepared for activist interest, particularly as the UK market is so cheap compared to the US. Private investors may benefit from activist investors, providing they are interested in the long-term health of the company concerned.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: IntelliAM & UK consumer trends

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 15:05:00 -0000

Finlay Mathers of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye on IntelliAM which uses AI software to provide solutions to target inefficiencies for companies in the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sector. Able significantly to reduce the time equipment lies idle, it is small but has really great growth potential.

He also looks at the way profit forecasts in the consumer sector are proving more resilient than their underperforming share prices would suggest. He discusses which sectors and companies are doing well and will continue to succeed.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The ramifications of Deep Seek for UK investors

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 15:50:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the disruption to US AI stocks caused by the arrival onto the scene of Deep Seek. If it indeed turns out to be cheaper to train and run, then it throws an enormous spanner in the wheels of the American tech stocks. It also shows just how incredibly volatile those highly-priced shares are. Russ recalls that after previous tech bubbles burst, those stocks went into the deep freeze for long periods. In the UK most of our silicon tech stocks have been taken over so we are less affected and perhaps the inherent value of the UK market will offer some protection.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Topps Tiles & 4imprint

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 14:46:00 -0000

Chloe Wong Yun Shing and Neil Shah of Edison Group discuss Topps Tiles which is defying the weak housing market and low consumer confidence and recently reported revenue growing again. This momentum is projected to continue, particularly if the acquisition of CTD Tiles goes ahead.

They also return to 4imprint, an American company making promotional products. With excellent management and strong customer retention, it continues to be a strong performer. Being listed in the UK gives investors a rating advantage. They are top of Edison's well-regarded Illuminator Portfolio, available on their website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The attraction of gilt-edged stocks

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 15:23:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that private investor interest in gilts has soared of late, now that they provide a good interest rate and are relatively risk-free, providing that they are held to maturity. They are reckoning, presumably, that inflation will not rise although some of the Budget measures have yet to have their effect, while oil and international food prices are currently rising. Russ points out that the weaker pound is a potential pressure valve for the UK, with UK assets more attractive to overseas buyers. He is concerned, though, that the primary purpose of the UK stock market, to raise capital for businesses, is of far less importance than the secondary, trading, function.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Bids eroding the London market and Saba Capital

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 15:27:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the latest bid for a UK company, Team Internet, which he discussed here recently as trading at a discount to its international peers. He points out that UK companies are vulnerable to takeover; the worry is that the UK market will keep shrinking, although he feels that value investing will return. With activist Saba Capital trying to replace the boards of 7 investment trusts, he feels that private investors must exercise their voting rights. Details are here on the AIC website. https://tinyurl.com/3ad9np9u.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What might 2025 hold?

Thu, 02 Jan 2025 16:15:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell reckons the most significant number of 2024 was 193, the number of global interest rate cuts. For the most part, markets got what they wanted last year. But at the end, bond yields were telling a different message, one which equity markets didn't believe. As for the UK market, yes it's shrinking in terms of listings but it is relatively cheap despite a decent yield, lots of buybacks and M&A activity. Looking at the top 10 performers is yet another sign that investors should always consider what is unloved and he reminds us that 2/3 of FTSE100 earnings come from overseas.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How did 2024 turn out and what to watch out for in 2025

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 15:22:00 -0000

Contrarian that he is, Russ Mould of A J Bell was surprised that 2024 turned out pretty much as consensus had it, though few predicted the surge in Bitcoin. Looking ahead to 2025, he wonders what might knock growth and inflation off the rails. He recommends keeping an eye on government debt (growing scarily), world trade flows and tariffs, the dollar (a trade surplus would starve the world of its reserve currency), oil and food prices (important for inflation) and the Magnificent Seven (now so large that they will affect so much else).

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A generational UK opportunity & 4imprint

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 16:15:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group highlights research claiming there may be a generational opportunity in the UK market, extremely cheap against other markets, particularly the US. The tide in sentiment may be turning and American investors are already looking to the UK to diversify and reduce downside risk. The company highlights 20 stocks in the report. https://tinyurl.com/56sj3h4u.

Neil also returns to 4imprint. It is US based, where the promotional products market is highly fragmented. Through marketing efficiency, they are growing market share.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A decline in UK listings is not entirely negative

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 09:47:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Bloomberg piece pointing out that 45 firms have left the UK market this year through mergers and acquisitions. But is it such a bad thing that almost £50bn has gone to investors or that UK assets are both cheap and desired? It's true that the number of companies quoted in the UK has halved in 30 years but the decline has been true in the US and Australia too. We have too few tech and growth companies and too much stodge but the real problems have come from cheap debt – making riskier shares less attractive – and unduly tightened reporting requirements, making listing more laborious.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Focusrite & Accsys Technologies

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 15:29:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses two companies he feels might be of interest to private investors. Focusrite, with a global market, has two divisions: content creation sells hardware and software while audio reproduction is driven by live music. Despite a torrid year or so they are investing in new product lines, have sound management and a good long-term record.

Accsys Technologies has a technique to give softwoods the durability of hardwood for sustainable construction. While demand is never an issue, they were hit by delays with production. They've started to open up the US market, however, and their first half results were really positive. Although still only at breakeven, they seem now to have things right and are a company on the turn.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Should we believe gilts or equities?

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 09:52:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that supposedly risk-free 10-year gilts and corresponding instruments have risen despite interest rate cuts from central banks. At the same time, equities have been generally strong. In the US, the 10-year Treasury is now equal to the earnings yield on the S&P 500. Investors might be taking the extra risk anticipating upside potential but it could be seen as an early warning sign. In the UK, the earnings yield is double the 10-year gilt yield, making the domestic market look cheap, explaining all the takeover activity.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Tesla and Dowlais Group

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 15:26:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that since the Trump victory, Tesla's shares have added $300 billion. The market is betting that US policy will be supportive of Elon Musk and his company, which could benefit from a more protectionist approach. Although the fundamentals are challenging (the PE is 90-100), it relatively cheap compared to some AI stocks.

In the UK, shares in Dowlais Group (spun out of GKN) rose on their trading update. As well as metallurgy, they are in the automotive components business and benefit from EVs as well as old-style vehicles. The forward PE is only 5 or so and the company should come increasingly into focus.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for markets under President Trump

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 10:10:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that US markets are strong in the wake of Trump's victory from a sense of relief that Harris didn't win. Trump wants to boost American growth, perhaps using tariffs, while at the same time wanting a weaker dollar. As the world's reserve currency, the strength of the dollar is of massive important. Russ discusses the Triffin Dilemma, which explains why the world needs a weak dollar and a continuing US trade deficit. Gold, he says, weaker on the stronger dollar, will be the ultimate tell.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to the Budget and who might benefit?

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 15:28:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at Rachel Reeves' Budget. In advance, many peole were withdrawing money from investments but, although the gilts market has seen yields rise, there's a general air of relief that it isn't more draconian. He feels things should normalise in the coming weeks and that, with the UK still forecast to grow, it's a good investment climate. Low-margin, high-workforce sectors like hospitality and retail might suffer but with declining interest rates, real estate and housebuilders could benefit, as could companies associated with increased government spending in health, social care and education.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are UK banks worth a look?

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 15:12:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the UK's main banks now that we're in the midst of results season. He points out that while the big five account for 11% of the FTSE's market cap, they produce 1/5 of pre-tax profits and 1/5 of total dividends. There remains a good deal of residual scepticism. They may yet be worth a look, despite the many possible adverse factors. Russ notes that cashbacks and dividends will see HSBC on a yield of almost 15% this year, with the others on 10-12%.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: London Tunnels & Card Factory

Thu, 17 Oct 2024 14:07:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group finds London Tunnels' project fascinating. Despite the name, they are listed on Euronext and aim to turn the network of tunnels under Holborn Underground into a major tourist attraction. Although intended as air raid shelters they became a home for MI6 and ended up being used by the GPO. Details of a forthcoming presentation are on the Edison Group website.

Card Factory is demonstrating that a combination of bricks and clicks could be more effective than a pure online operation. The company is expanding its product range, stores and its online business and is trading at a larger discount than it should be.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rising gilt yields & what they mean for equities

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 13:58:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the UK 10-year gilt yield rising over 4%, despite the Bank of England governor saying that interest rate cuts could happen more quickly. Why are equity markets both here and in the US more optimistic than fixed interest investors? In the UK we owe £2.5 trillion and have a £100 billion interest bill, so the government faces very difficult decisions. The only way to reduce the burgeoning debt/GDP ratio is through growth or inflation. It will probably be a combination of both and 2% may soon be the floor for the inflation rate rather than the ceiling. Russ discusses what this may mean for equities, with 28 of the FTSE100 companies yielding more than the 10-year gilt.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Greggs & Gresham House Energy Storage Fund

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 13:46:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group sees little to disappoint with Greggs' Q3 results. It remains a hugely efficient machine which is great at understanding consumer needs. Opening new stores aggressively in the wake of Covid and expanding into evening service, it remains attractively priced. He also looks at the collective investment vehicle Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. It has performed poorly of late. But the long term opportunity is great as we pivot to renewables, which need battery energy storage and it is an interesting opportunity as it is at a significant discount. More information is on the Edison Website. (https://www.edisongroup.com/research/rising-revenues-and-big-plans-for-the-future/34011/)

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US interest rates and UK market prospects

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 14:54:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point – rather high for the start of a cycle – and China's latest attempt at stimulus. In the UK, cyclical sectors are leading the way and the market benefits from being lower-rated and having more political stability, at least more than the US. The FTSE-350 also has an effective yield of 7.5%. Financial markets were not keen on Brexit but the pound is now almost back to pre-Brexit levels against the dollar, which will help suppress inflation, even if it crimps earnings and dividends.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: IP Group & Discoverie

Mon, 23 Sep 2024 10:11:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that tech-focussed, early-stage venture capital company IP Group is worth taking a look at. With a market cap of £460m, some of the businesses it invested in are now quoted and, while the interim results reflected a difficult period, things are now improving. With some facinating things in the portfolio, the long-duration investor IP is at a 56% discount to net asset value.

Discoverie creates and sources electronic designs and components and has just moved into security. It's an attractive long-term business with high returns yet is at a 27% discount to its peers. More info is on the Edison website (https://www.edisongroup.com/).

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why so many gold miners are being bid for

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:12:00 -0000

In the wake of the AngloGold Ashanti bid for Centamin at 1.7x price/book value, Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why so many gold miners are being bid for. Russ points out that gold mining shares are at an all-time low compared to the gold price. And gold itself is no more expensive relative to equities than it was when Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. Combined with the fact that utiities are the top US performing sector, perhaps it indicates that, after 16 years of an extreme monetary exeriment, investors are expecting something nasty to crawl out of the woodwork.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rightmove & Barratt Developments

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 14:55:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group takes a look at two housing-related stocks. Rightmove has surged on talk of a bid. It's a jewel of a stock with something like 80% of the online estate agency market. This shows yet again how overseas investors consider the UK market undervalued. Neil believes Rightmove's model has amazing potential for AI.

He also discusses Barratt Developments, which has just produced a tough set of full year results with profits down 75%. However, the mood music for the future is much more positive and there's a bit of a turnaround. While there's uncertainty over what the Budget will bring, Labour's desire to ramp up housebuilding could see them well placed.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How do markets react to falling interest rates?

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 14:25:00 -0000

So far this year there have been 108 interest rate cuts worldwide. Russ Mould of A J Bell has crunched the numbers for 13 interest rate cycles and found that the All-Share Index averages a gain of 16.5% after 2 years from falling rates. However, with investors often anticipating cuts, markets are far more volatile for the first 3-6 months. Russ also considers whether very low rates are a good thing, pointing out that a quest for stability by central banks can ultimately lead to greater instability.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Foxtons & Topps Tiles

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 07:16:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison group looks at a couple of companies which will benefit from the cycle turning in response to declining interest rates. Both are related to the housing market. Estate agents Foxtons have a reasonably-new management team and their interim results show encouraging progress and seem reasonably valued. So too is Topps Tiles, which Neil has discussed on Share Radio before. They are expanding their commercial and online business and doing all the right things. There are notes on both companies on the Edison website: https://www.edisongroup.com.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The global diversified miners

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 14:31:00 -0000

Andrew Keen, head of resources at Edison Group, discusses the global diversified miners. Although known for volatility and economic exposure, they are, he says, effectively commodity portfolio managers, a proxy for commodity baskets. While it is difficult for most private clients to research individual commodities and mining stocks, it is not hard to understand the large companies. However, when considering the majors, he suggests that investors should do their own ESG assessment.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: BoE rate cut and share buybacks

Thu, 01 Aug 2024 14:15:00 -0000

Following the Bank of England's interest rate cut Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the positives and negatives of lower rates. He also talks about the strong flow of share buybacks in the UK, with almost £50bn announced so far this year. He explains why they aren't always a good idea and should be viewed on a case-by-case basis. Although private investors don't benefit directly, their equity stake in the company grows. With a total cash yield on the FTSE100 of 6.3% (even more with FTSE250), he feels the UK market is looking ever more attractive.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The consumer sector and Card Factory

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:44:00 -0000

Russell Pointon of Edison Group summarises the company's quarterly consumer report, which finds signs of better momentum in profit reports and, despite a tough macro background, sees consumer confidence increasing. Among companies that are lowly valued relative to their peers, Russell highlights Card Factory. Under relatively new management, it is extending its range beyond greetings cards into gifts and party goods and also moving into suitable overseas markets. Despite good growth prospects, its multiple is still in the high single digits and it has returned to paying dividends.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for global stocks and why Labour might revive sterling

Thu, 18 Jul 2024 14:49:00 -0000

Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at Evelyn Partners, looks at the outlook for global stocks, where it's been the AI theme that has driven markets, led by the six mega caps. But, unlike the dotcom bubble, there are real earnings here as these companies are generating big profits so the high ratings can be justified. We now need to see how AI will be utilised by businesses.

He also explains why sterling could be heading for a revival under Labour, helped by an improved relationship with the EU which, with the Ukraine situation, needs UK military intelligence and equipment. If the pound improves for the right reasons, it could drive up the currently low valuation of the UK stock market.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: AI and Geospatial/Spatial Technology

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 14:22:00 -0000

Dan Ridsdale, head of technology at Edison Group, looks at the state of play with AI, a structural growth trend, where only the companies on the hardware side stand at a premium. In looking at where the revenue from AI will come, investors need to consider what sort of companies will benefit from its use and which have the best relationships with the AI providers. He also discusses geospatial and spatial technology, an area in which the UK excels. As people are not paying this area of growth enough attention, shares in companies such as 1Spatial are not standing at a premium.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: YouGov & Diageo

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 14:10:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at YouGov whose shares have halved since a recent profit warning. Despite having 15 years of valuable data and with a sound core business, they were on a vulnerable high rating and investors will how need to reassess and reevaluate and it may be some time before the shares are less volatile. Diageo shares have fallen 30% or so this year, partly because of weakness in the Latin America region. It feels like an opportunity to buy into a quality business which can continue to grow market share in sector which has attractive prospects and the company is one with a fabulous record on dividend payouts.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The BoE, interest rates & the UK market

Mon, 24 Jun 2024 10:13:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell wasn't surprised that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee opted for no change in interest rates, though he was surprised that the vote was yet again 7-2. Services inflation is still too high, as is wage growth, for the Bank to be comfortable easing off. He notes that the UK stock market is now worth more than the French, one positive sign. He will be interested to see what the new government does when it comes to planned reforms and the UK market. Have we become too risk-averse?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Frontier Developments and Dialight

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 14:50:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses two turnaround situations. Video games company Frontier Developments suffered along with the entire sector but its new games are performing well, as is its back catalogue. It is now focusing on its core business and Neil feels it's one to put on the radar and watch. Dialight makes LEDs to be used in challenging environments and is well positioned for growth, with a new management team having a more pragmatic vision. It may also receive a large payout if it triumphs in ongoing legislation.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How might a new government affect the market?

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 14:46:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that markets have traditionally done better under the Conservatives, though they have had longer in power than Labour. While the size of majorities makes no discernible difference, what is important is the macro side and particularly inflation. Since 2019 the CPI is up 22% and the RPI 33%, with wages up by a quarter. He looks at how different sectors might be affected such as housebuilding, energy, rail, utilities, defence and retail.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Hargreaves Lansdown, the UK market & the consumer sector

Thu, 30 May 2024 14:26:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group thinks the bid for Hargreaves Lansdown is interesting, feeling its prospects and potential growth rate might surprise a sceptical market. He sees there being a change in sentiment around the UK market, feeling that the perception that it is undervalued is being more widely appreciated. He also discusses the consumer sector where, if you look under the bonnet and are willing to go against the grain, there are green shoots, particularly in areas like travel and leisure.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The General Election & interest rates

Thu, 23 May 2024 15:39:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the General Election call, pointing out that while CPI inflation has almost returned to target, other measures are considerably higher and CPI itself is 26% higher than when Boris Johnson was elected PM. He explains why the markets no longer believe rates will be cut soon and what this means for those shares that are effectively bond proxies, such as utilities. Ever the contrarian, he highlights REITs – a yield and asset play – where some people think there is value and where, perhaps, most of the bad news is already in the price.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: AO World and Renew Holdings

Fri, 17 May 2024 12:07:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the latest changes to his amazingly successful model portfolio The Illuminator. Although still of interest Rolls-Royce and Rightmove are ejected to make room for two newcomers. Online appliance retailer AO World has embarked on a turnaround and its guidance is optimistic, showing a great increase in profitability. Possessing a good balance sheet, they should earn a decent return for shareholders.

Renew Holdings is a boring, but worthwhile compounder. It's a market leader in its area of engineering and construction, a fragmented market place. It has a high level of recurring revenue, well-disciplined management and will benefit from UK infrastructure spending. More here: https://www.edisongroup.com/insight/the-illuminator-march-2024/

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why interest rates matter for markets

Thu, 09 May 2024 15:10:00 -0000

With the Bank of England's MPC displaying "studious inactivity", Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at why interest rates are so important to pricing in stock markets. Despite no change in rates, the UK market is now anticipating a cut soon helped by the Swedish Riksbank cutting its rates for the first time in 8 years, along with other European banks. Russ also looks at the types of shares that will benefit from falling rates – assuming investors are reading the runes correctly.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A J Bell & Epwin

Thu, 02 May 2024 15:25:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group highlights a couple of companies he thinks might interest private investors. Many will have dealt with broker A J Bell which Neil thinks is doing well, being the 2nd-biggest execution-only broker. They've grown market share by lowering their prices but, given the drive for people to take more control of their finances, he finds them relatively inexpensive. And, although hardly a sexy business, he likes Epwin, which largely makes products for building repair and maintenance, such as doors and windows. They are exceptionally well run and go from strength to strength, are on an undemanding valuation and yield almost 6%.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why the FTSE 100 hit a record high

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 12:34:00 -0000

After starting the year no higher than it was in 2018, Russ Mould tells Simon Rose why the FTSE 100-Share Index hit a record high. The best cure for low prices, he explains, is low prices. The currency is cheap for overseas investors thanks to Brexit, hence so much takeover activity, dividends are reasonably healthy and, with buybacks taken into account, the index is effectively yielding more than 7%. He suggests we might be moving into a period where the UK market, so long out of favour, might possess big advantages, though there are many "ifs" and "buts" about it.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Foxtons & the Seraphim Space Investment Trust

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 14:30:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the 1st quarter trading update from Foxton's which, wit a new management team, is undergoing a turnaround. It's a great brand, underpinned by good IT and data. It is a stable business (particularly lettings) with low risk on the downside which might have a great upside if press comments about it being sold are borne out. More esoteric is the Seraphim Space Investment Trust, which invests in companies exposed to the space industry, where the private sector is bringing down the cost of launching items into space. The price has risen, boosted to some extend by the prospect of increased defence spending. But the portfolio is maturing and profitability is coming through from many of its investments. It's a way to get exposure to space through a team of experts.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is it silver's turn to shine?

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 15:24:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why inflation – and the risk-free rate – are so important for pricing in markets. Expectations for interest-rate cuts being scaled back as inflation persists have helped gold reach record levels as investors look for stores of value. But Russ points out that silver has had less attention and is relatively cheap in comparison with gold. If there is a shift in the mood music, could it be silver's turn for a run?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The consumer sector & Topps Tiles

Thu, 04 Apr 2024 14:48:00 -0000

Russell Pointon of Edison Group talks to Simon Rose about the consumer sector where the M&A activity is confirming that a lot of companies are looking cheap. Best off are those companies able to pass on inflation, such as Gregg's. While things should get better this year, the sector isn't out of the woods yet. While this week's trading update from Topps Tiles saw reduced estimates, Russell is encouraged by the minor fall in the share price. Although the environment is currently tough, the shares look cheap and should rebound sharply as things improve. There are notes on them and the consumer sector on the Edison website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does copper's buoyancy mean?

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 15:03:00 -0000

Russ Mould, after explaining why cocoa has recently become more expensive than copper, thinks the buoyancy of "Doctor Copper" could suggest the global economy is in ruder health than many believe. If so, he wonders why central banks are so keen to cut interest rates. And if inflation rises, commodities could return to fashion. He points out that mining stocks have failed to keep pace with commodity prices but emphasises that private investors should always ensure that they are diversified and don't put all their (Easter) eggs in one basket.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Law Debenture & Team Internet

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 15:12:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group thinks investors should be looking ahead several months, when interest rates will be lower and companies doing better. He likes the look of investment trust Law Debenture, predominantly investing in UK equities, split between larger and small & midcap companies, which are even more undervalued. Their professional services business enhances the returns, as explained in a note on Edison's website. If you think the internet is here to stay, then he favours internet services company Team Internet, especially after their recent record results. On an undemanding valuation, it has now grown to the point where it is large enough to attract more institutional investors.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal investors: What does the wave of bids mean for UK equities?

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 15:37:00 -0000

Russ Mould looks at the bid activity in the UK market with an increased bid for Direct Line and the offer for Curry's being withdrawn. The forty-plus bids last year returned about 1.5% to investors, making a total yield with cashbacks and dividends of over 7%. Should investors look for stocks that might receive a bid or should they heed the words of Warren Buffett? And if so many predators see value in the UK stock market, why aren't international investors buying?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The British ISA, Spirent & Listed Private Equity companies

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 15:25:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group assesses the likely impact of the Chancellor's idea for British ISAs, believing they could stimulate the undervalued UK market. As the bids for Spirent and others show companies are being taken out relatively cheaply.

He also explains that it might profit investors to look at listed private equity companies, which typically generate 14% year on year but which are trading at big discounts to net assets. Edison have a report online on the sector and investors can join a forthcoming webinar.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Life and non-life insurance companies

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 15:13:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks ahead to the full year results of the UK's insurance companies. While a valid short cut could be to think of the life companies in particular as bond proxies, he explains more sophisticated ways of assessing them as investment prospects. He points out that the life companies have some very high yields, but investors must consider if these compensate for the risks and complexities. He also goes through the considerations to mull for the less high-yielding non-life companies.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rolls-Royce & Pan African Resources

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 18:21:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at Rolls-Royce in the wake of results showing record profitability and a massive turnaround in the business. It shows, he feels, the importance of leadership with CEO Tufan Erginbilgic able to explain clearly what is happening within a complex business, driving long-term profitability by focussing on the things that matter. He feels there is much further to go with the stock. He also highlights Pan African Resources with a new note on the Edison website. A South African precious metals miner, it is lowly valued compared to its peers and somewhat overlooked. Despite some political risk, it is going in the right direction.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The UK's banks

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 16:26:00 -0000

Are the banks cheap or are investors right to be wary? With results season upon us, Russ Mould of A J Bell points out how the sector has been underperforming, even though 2023 profits are forecast to be at an all-time high along with cash returns. It may be that investors feel 2023 will be as good as it gets and are wary of the economy's future. But for long-term investors who aren't particularly gloomy about the outlook, while the banks may be plodders, they do provide a decent yield.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Barratt Developments, Redrow & housebuilders

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 16:13:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the housebuilding sector in the light of Barratt's bid for Redrow, a deal the market has not looked favourably upon. There is a severe shortage of new housing but it is a difficult time for housebuilders, with difficulties over planning and environmental rules and higher interest rates, Neil feels that the sector is cyclical and that, over the long term, the fundamentals are attractive for investors.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Examining analysts' picks for 2023

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 17:14:00 -0000

After quickly discussing what he found most interesting about the MPC's decision to hold interest rates, Russ Mould looks at A J Bell's 10th annual examination of analysts' research. He reveals that they are more bullish than ever, with 62% recommending buys and just 7% sells. This, he feels, is reasonable, given the long-term underperformance of the FTSE 100 Index. Pointing out the most popular shares, he also digs into what lies behind an analyst's recommendations and why they're better off not simply following the herd.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: 4imprint & Telecom Plus

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:50:00 -0000

Neil Shah returns to the subject of 4imprint after their year-end update. This well-run company making marketing promotional goods in the US surprised on the upside. Efficient and responsible, they are at a discount to a sensible price. He also looks at Telecom Plus, trading as Utility Warehouse, which provides all your utilities in a single service, using economies of scale to get the best deal for their customers, some of whom become evangelists for the company. This well-positioned business with a good model for growth should continue to expand and has a stickier clientele than the comparison sites.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for 2024 and Gregg's

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 15:40:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group feels that the bond market has now normalised whch could help the equity market, where many companies have stabilised after a tough year, although he points out that the US market looks peaky. He admires the outstanding quarter year results from Gregg's. The business appears to be in the sweet spot where value is important to customers with a healthy balance sheet and a great management team. It pays a yield but there is still plenty of growth left, although the rating clearly anticipates this.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The governance checklist investors should use

Thu, 04 Jan 2024 17:16:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the stability – or lack of it – of FTSE CEOs compared to football managers, with the former averaging 5.4 years against just 1.5 years. More seriously, he discusses his governance checklist, a fascinating series of questions investors should ask themselves before committing themselves to buying any particular company's shares.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Themes to watch for 2024

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 17:16:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests the themes investors should watch out for in 2024. Equity markets seem optimistic while the gilts market – with an inverted yield curve – suggests a recession is likely and the commodity markets seem completely confused. Debt, however, is the biggest issue in the world, creating a headache for central banks. China, France and, soon, the US will all be using 20% of tax income for meeting interest costs. Scary enough in itself, if there's a recession, tax income will drop while welfare payments will soar. In summary, whatever has driven the markets in the past 10 years may not work for the 10 years, but there will always be opportunities.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Outperforming the FTSE 8 times & investing in AI

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 16:40:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses his model portfolio, The Illuminator which, sticking to certain parameters, has outperformed the FTSE 100 Index over 8 times since it started in 2008. He explains how it works, what's in it and reveals that, from January, it will be freely available to all. He also discusses an insightful interview with Polar Capital Technology Trust's Alastair Unwin. It reveals that the trust has pivoted to a 75% investment in AI and associated companies. Just 25 minutes long, investors can see it here: https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/delving-into-ai-with-polar-capitals-alastair-unwin/33029/

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The dividend outlook for the FTSE 100

Thu, 07 Dec 2023 15:30:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell has been crunching dividend numbers for the FTSE 100 index. Dividend forecasts for this year and next have fallen 10% over the past year and the jump in interest rates means that there is now more competition for investors' money. However, the market is expecting rate cuts and investors should remember that while fixed income is just that – fixed – companies can grow their dividends over time, with share prices adjusting as the dividends rise. Including extras such as buybacks (closed to private investors), the FTSE yields 6.9% and dividend cover is a decent 2.2 times. And while the market still seems undervalued, takeovers of UK companies (often smaller ones) by foreign buyers continue apace.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why the UK market is cheap and Natwest Bank

Thu, 30 Nov 2023 18:03:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group explains why the UK market is extremely cheap internationally, which is why we are seeing companies being bought out. He says that domestic investors should not give up hope. Given that many large UK companies have substantial foreign interests, you can get foreign exposure more cheaply, while investment trusts have further attractions.

As the Chancellor has said that the government's stake in NatWest will be sold down, Neil explains how to judge if it is worth buying into the bank when it happens.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Follow the fundamentals, not politicians or index changes

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 12:15:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says investors shouldn't get too excited by things like the Autumn Statement given that the government may change in less than a year, that if it was easy to pull a lever and energise the economy it would have been done by now and that the government and the Bank of England seem to be pulling in different directions. With changes imminent, he looks at the FTSE 100-Share Index. Who's in or out really doesn't make that much differnce and is far less important in the long-run than the fundamentals. Only 26 companies have survived over the index's 40-year history.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is the UK market too cheap and how M&S has transformed itself

Thu, 16 Nov 2023 15:44:44 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group says that the UK market continues to look cheap, noting that bid activity is picking up. He hopes that the Autumn Statement from the Chancellor will contain something like changes in the ISA rules to encourage greater investment in UK equities. He also looks at the way in which the transformation set in train at Marks & Spencer 4 or 5 years ago to create a more nimble business is now bearing fruit. He feels there's still some way to go.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Three years on from Pfizer Monday, what has changed?

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:15:03 -0000

Three years on from Pfizer Monday, when Pfizer and BioNTech announced a Covid vaccine, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at how different the investment world is now. Commodities have outperformed equities which have outperformed bonds, with Bitcoin doing best of all as investors search for a store of value that won't be affected by central banks. While both drugs companies' shares are lower than 3 years ago, the FTSE has outperformed the Nasdaq Composite. Are we now in a permanently different decade and have growth stocks had their day in favour of value?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The consumer sector and investing in Vietnam

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 16:14:19 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group tells SImon Rose of Edison's study into the consumer sector, which has been affected by the hit to consumer confidence. There's plenty of value in the sector and the report lists companies which have had upgrades but not seen share reactions. The changed environment is exposing those companies which have weak business models. He also highlights Vietnam Holdings, an investment trust which has outperformed the market in that dynamic economy. At some stage, Vietnam will cease to be considered a frontier market and valuations will change as a result. Both reports are on the Edison website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why are mining stocks so unloved?

Thu, 26 Oct 2023 15:55:49 -0000

Ever the contrarian, Russ Mould of A J Bell wonders why he is getting no questions at the moment about mining shares. They have underperformed growth stocks for a decade or so and it is true they are suffering cost input issues like so many other businesses. However, their balance sheets are pretty healthy, we still need the things they dig out of the ground and the renewables transition will exacerbate this. At some stage, they might come back into favour. However, unless investors have geological expertise, they might be best sticking with the majors.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The Middle East crisis & an investment trust to note

Thu, 19 Oct 2023 14:22:25 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the possible ramifications of the Middle East crisis which, if it continues, could mean higher oil prices, a less optimistic picture for inflation and a boost for safe havens, perhaps with tech stocks stuffering. He points out that it's a binary switch, with the opposite happening if the situation improves.

He also talks about the Abrdn UK Smaller Growth Trust. Despite a difficult year, the managers are sticking to their policy of holding quality stocks for the long term. It stands at a 14% discount to asset value and offers a 2.8% yield. There are more details in a note on the Edison website.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What do conflicts mean for markets?

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 15:56:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the effect conflicts have had on financial markets using the All-Share Index since it was instituted in 1962. While recognising that much else is more important, he concludes that, by and large, the reaction of markets is not long lasting. The big exception was 1973's Yom Kippur War which led to the 73-4 oil price shock. While events may not be directly comparable, with inflation heightened and debt at astronomic heights, we have to hope that the US economy does not hit the buffers. Russ's Nostrodamic view is that as governments can't afford deflation, interest rates will be pushed lower. Please note: Russ's inability to access broadband means that sound quality is variable in places.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How investors should view share buybacks

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 15:22:44 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses share buybacks. Long popular in the United States, he notes that they are currently down by a fifth YOY, pointing out that previous peaks coincided with market tops. In the UK, many of our biggest companies have engaged in buybacks, particularly in the financial field. With the FTSE yielding 3.9%, buybacks are adding another 2.3%. While private investors don't usually participate directly, their equity stake rises. Russ explains the ins and outs of share buybacks from a private investor's point of view.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: Inflation, interest rates, Team Internet & Baker Steel Resource Trust

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 14:55:57 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the fall in inflation and the MPC's decision to pause interest rate rises with Simon Rose. He points out that a lot of money is going into the bond market, which should be positive for equities and offers advice about how to position your porfolio in the current environment. He points to two companies investors might find interesting, Team Internet (formerly CentralNic) and Baker Steel Resource Trust.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: Are a rash of CEO departures a worrying sign?

Thu, 14 Sep 2023 13:24:26 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the high rate of departures of FTSE 100 CEOs and, indeed, CFOs. 18 CEOs are going this year, with another 4 already known to be departing in 2024. The figures for CFOs are 31 this year, with another 6 planned next. Such elevated numbers were also seen in 2000, 2007, 2013 and 2020, none of them years investors will look back on fondly. Russ also answers the obvious question, "What does a CEO actually do?"

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How to set about Investing

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 15:23:00 -0000

Welcome to a special episode of The Financial Outlook: the investment section of the Managing My Money course. What's the difference between saving and investment? It's all in the risk. We talk about shares, bonds and funds, and which perform best over the long term. The Managing My Money course has 16 sections in total, and is presented by Glen Goodman and Annie Weston. You can enjoy the whole course, produced in association with the Open University by registering via this link.

Plus, you'll find the slides that accompany this episode here.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: What is the underperformance of small caps telling us?

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 15:13:15 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that while stocks in tech, the US and Latin America have been doing well, markets everywhere have shunned small cap companies. He wonders why they aren't doing well in what is said to be a risk-on period. Having been trained in a bear market, it's making him feel cautious, even though the markets may think they're back in Goldilocks territory. However, he suggests some indicators worth keeping an eye on.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How to invest in AI & energy efficiency

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 23:00:00 -0000

With AI-chip maker Nvidia surprising the market, Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at ways investors who feel they've missed that particular boat can invest in AI. He singles out as possible AI beneficiaries credit reporter Experian, Ocado and Rightmove and he explains why. But he also looks at the importance of energy efficiency as we head towards Net Zero, highlighting SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust, which has gone from a premium to a substantial discount and has a substantial yield.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What's doing well this year on both sides of the Atlantic?

Thu, 17 Aug 2023 14:47:47 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell takes a look at what's been driving markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, it's largely been growth stocks with some element of travel as well. In the UK, it's largely been companies like Rolls-Royce, and Marks and Spencer, companies that had seemed very much out of favour at the turn of the year. Many of the best performers are consumer-led stocks, despite cost-of-living pressures. He feels that, in the UK, there's an element of vlue investing with companies like M&S rapidly reducing its debt position. The big question now is, how long can it last?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The problems of the media sector and 4Imprint

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 13:42:31 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the media sector. While consumers may welcome the end of the online cookie, in the UK only the movie and entertainment sectors are doing well, with most others struggling and hoping to see rising confidence among consumers. Neil, however, discusses one company that has and continues to do well. Based in the US but listed in London, 4Imprint does branded marketing for small businesses. An exceptional business, it's highly efficient, caring and has a tiny market share and, although highly rated, it's deserved.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal investors: Reaction to the BoE's latest interest rate rise

Thu, 03 Aug 2023 15:27:39 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about the Bank of England's latest interest rate rise, the 14th in a row, taking it to 5.25%. As he points out, two MPC members wanted to increase it to 5.5%. Laith looks at the BoE's latest inflation forecasts (which will be a relief to the PM) and discusses the ramifications of Fitch downgrading the United States' credit rating. Investors, he says, shouldn't get too caught up in all this but should stick to their knitting and keep a long-term view.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Energy Transition & How To Invest As We Head To Net Zero

Thu, 27 Jul 2023 14:43:20 -0000

Andrew Keen of Edison Group discusses energy transition. With the oil and gas companies in long-term structural decline, wind and solar will be the big growth areas while the materials needed are a fascinating area with not enough investment focus. He discusses the trends and some of the problems. However, he points out that it is a complex field and British investors are fortunate that investment trusts can offer a sensible route in, with the fund managers doing the hard work on research.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are markets overreacting to the inflation fall?

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 16:01:09 -0000

Danni Hewson of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about the market reaction to this week's fall in inflation, explaining why investors have seemed so euphoric. She discusses the sectors that have been hardest hit – and now are benefitting most – from inflation turning downwards, such as housebuilders, consumer-facing stocks and companies in the hospitality sector.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Encouraging funds to invest in UK equities

Thu, 13 Jul 2023 14:34:09 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses the Chancellor's Mansion House speech, particularly the attempt to encourage pension funds and insurance companies to invest in the UK. He gives a shocking example of BT's £37bn pension fund, investing just £100m in UK equities. Neil feels that regulation is forcing too much to go into fixed income and that encouraging but not mandating UK equity investment (including unlisted securities) could make a difference over time.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: Are private equity takeovers actually a good thing?

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 14:33:11 -0000

In the wake of the buyout of Lookers, Neil Shah of Edison Group considers whether the fact that the UK listed market is steadily being depleted is a bad thing or not? He feels that takeovers by trade buyers or private equity provide a possible exit for investors when the stock market might be underpricing companies and that, without it, investors – particularly in the small- and mid-cap areas – might not see value realised.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What do investors do in response to inflation & interest rates?

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 14:21:21 -0000

With the Bank of England raising interest rates to 5% and inflation not just remaining stubbornly high but perhaps becoming ingrained, Danni Hewson talks to Simon Rose about what the future holds. Housebuilders, retailers and the hospitality sector are saying consumers are resilient but all indicators point to a recession. Investors should be mindful of the changing economy and may need to rebalance their portfolios. With an election pending, how will the Government react to what is happening?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Finding companies who mirror the wonders of compound interest

Thu, 15 Jun 2023 15:08:00 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group explains to Simon Rose that, as Albert Einstein remarked, compound interest is the eighth Wonder of the World. He discusses two companies that exhibit the same characterics. Games Workshop, with its niche Warhammer figurines has international scalability and over the long term produces a sustained return on equity while DiscoverIE has transformed itself and is another self-sustaining business with free cash flow generation. Compared to their peers, both look to be at a discount and they could be good "buy and forget" investments.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Does oil present an investment opportunity?

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 14:42:42 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell, ever the contrarian, finds oil of interest because it is currently viewed so negatively. But he points out that, while supply is not growing, the world is still addicted to the stuff and that if demand keeps growing, it must have an effect on the price. For interested investors, he suggests sticking to the majors, a specialist fund or passive instrument, or a combination without going overboard. He also gives us advice from Benjamin Graham: The best investment returns are reaped by realists who buy from pessimists and sell to optimists.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market overview, Topps Tiles & Gregg's

Thu, 01 Jun 2023 13:57:04 -0000

Neil Shah of Edison Group talks to Simon Rose about the general state of the markets, where the US and UK are lagging Europe and parts of Asia. The UK is held back by an absence of decent growth while investors are nervous of a possible American recession, deflation and banking problems. In the UK, though, there are always going to be interesting companies able to react to difficult conditions and Neil highlights what is happening at Topps Tiles and Gregg's.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is it time to buy into Japan?

Thu, 25 May 2023 14:40:06 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the rise of the Japanese stock market, which has hit a 33-year-high. He points out that it is still a quarter below its all-time high, hit on the last day of 1989. After debt-fuelled craziness saw the land of the Imperial Palace worth more than all of California before a collapse, and with decades of QE since, foreign investors have long neglected the market. Japanese companies have become more shareholder-friendly than they used to be. Russ explains that it could be wisest for UK investors, if considering Japan, to use active or passive collective investments, rather than relying on individual shares.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Interest rates and share buybacks

Thu, 11 May 2023 14:52:00 -0000

After the Bank of England raise interest rates to their highest since 2008 Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that the last time inflation was in double digits, so were interest rates. At present, real interest rates are heavily negative. He also discusses share buybacks, illegal in the US until 1982. They're now being used heavily by FTSE100 companies and Russ discusses their pros and cons and whether they gerrymander figures. He also explains why Next is a company that does it right.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does US interest rate rise signify for UK rates?

Thu, 04 May 2023 14:02:14 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why the US Fed raised rates for the 10th time in 14 months to a 16-year-high, despite the turmoil in the American banking sector. It makes it all the more likely that the MPC will follow suit. Despite the American move, sterling is at an 11-month high against the dollar. She also looks at results from BP and Shell and discusses the major slide in oil prices.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Big tech must deliver to maintain momentum

Thu, 27 Apr 2023 15:00:42 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the importance of the American tech stocks, once the FANGs and now MAANAM. All suffered steep price falls last year but, of the $2.4tn rebound in the S&P 500, $1.6tn has come from these six. Russ points out that the better their share prices do, the less downside protection there is. Inflation and interest rates are also a consideration to their valuation. But with no correspondingly important UK tech stocks, they're vitally important to British investors through tracker or other investment vehicles, even if they might not realise it. If their momentum is to continue, their results must deliver.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: With inflation persisting, where are interest rates headed?

Thu, 20 Apr 2023 15:12:35 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor summarises the latest UK inflation and employment statistics. In the light of general inflation remaining above 10% and with the likes of food and drink considerably higher than that, what do economists think will happen with interest rates? Is a hike more likely now? Will the economy fall into a recession this year? And will the UK stock market's tear come to an end?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Gold and gold mining shares

Thu, 13 Apr 2023 14:35:33 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at gold, which recently went above $2,000 an ounce again. He asks how the metal, which produces no income, can be valued. Believing it is NOT an inflation hedge, he does think it can be a hedge against loss of faith in central bankers. Despite a round of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, while gold has risen 30% since 2020, gold shares, out of fashion, are only up 12%. While smaller and riskier than the giants, he wonders if some UK gold producers could be considered cheap.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What lessons should we learn from banking problems?

Thu, 30 Mar 2023 14:32:35 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell finds it curious that central bankers are not looking in the mirror, but blaming social media and older people for recent problems, given that an excess of cheap money is at the root of so much that has gone wong. He believes there will still be reckonings to come in some areas and that the chances of a recession in the US have increased. UK investors, though, should concentrate on value and ignore short-term static. Don't be influenced by the mistakes of others.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The BoE raises interest rates for the 11th time in a row

Thu, 23 Mar 2023 16:30:39 -0000

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The UK Budget & market nervousness over the banks

Thu, 16 Mar 2023 15:39:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A JBell thinks Jeremy Hunt delivering the Budget did his best with a weak hand. Essentially, there is no money when the national interest bill is £100bn. Market nervousness about contagion from SVB and Credit Suisse Russ puts down to money being cheap for far too long. It has meant that too many people have done risky, silly things. Nervous investors should remember the basics, sticking to disciplined companies with sound management. He also wonders if 5% is the new 17%.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Persimmon & the housebuilding sector

Thu, 02 Mar 2023 15:48:35 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the results of Persimmon, the latest company offering a paper yield higher than 10% that turned out to be illusory. That the share price didn't fall further on terrible results shows that the market was ahead of the game. Russ looks at the sector as a whole. Some builders are trading at a discount to book value and sentiment will turn at some stage. But housebuilders are likely to be volatile and potential investors will have to be very brave.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rolls-Royce, BAE, Heathrow, WPP & Rio Tinto

Thu, 23 Feb 2023 16:06:57 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why supermarkets are rationing some fruit and vegetables. She also looks at results from Rolls-Royce, the first under its new CEO, as well as from BAE Systems (increasing its dividend), Heathrow Airport, where business is picking up less quickly than hoped for, advertising giant WPP and miner Rio Tino, which has slashed its dividend.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Barclays, Standard Chartered & the banking sector

Thu, 16 Feb 2023 15:41:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell takes a look at the banking sector. He points out that there are many similarities in the results from Barclays and Standard Chartered, with both showing the highest profits and dividends for some time. However, the market has reacted very differently, with Barclays punished and Standard boosted. He also discusses why banks might be being criticised by MPs and others for still squeezing savers.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why has the FTSE100 been hitting record highs?

Thu, 09 Feb 2023 15:57:41 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose why, despite the general air of doom and gloom in the UK, the FTSE 100 index has been hitting record highs recently. She discusses recent results from Unilever, Shell & BP and points out the research suggesting that the UK might just manage to avoid a recession this year.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: BoE rate rise & market reaction to Rishi's 100 days

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 16:06:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the MPC's decision to increase rates to 4%, the highest since 2008. Is it doing the right thing? He has crunched the numbers to reveal that the All Share has risen 11.5% during Sunak's 100 days as PM, second only to the rise when Edward Heath entered Number Ten (15.4%) and slightly ahead of Tony Blair (10.1%).

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Tech sector news and prospects

Thu, 26 Jan 2023 16:57:28 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor updates Simon Rose on the latest news from the tech sector. Tesla's shares jumped on strong earnings, Microsoft had mixed results and Netflix performed better than expected. She discusses the figures and explains that, although 2022's woes for tech shares may have been overdone, investors in the sector in 2023 are still likely to be in for a bumpy ride.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: My Portfolio with Lord Lee — The long view (REPLAY)

Sat, 21 Jan 2023 16:39:00 -0000

Simon Rose takes a well-earned break this week, so we bring you his interview with Lord Lee, author of 'How to Make a Million Slowly', as recorded nearly six years ago. At that time, 1 February 2017, it had been an intriguing start to the year for investors with sterling hitting new lows, driving the stockmarket to a record high. Lord Lee cautioned that forecasting the future direction of markets is a tricky business but for investors who maintain a long term view, the importance of growing dividends and hard assets continues to stand out.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Did retailers have a happy Christmas?

Thu, 12 Jan 2023 17:25:35 -0000

Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor discusses how the festive season went for retailers with Simon Rose. Despite the gloomy picture of consumers reigning in spending, the picture emerging from the high street over the most important period of the year is much more positive, with the likes of Next, Sainsbury's, Marks and particularly JD Sports, doing well. What happens in the next few weeks on the interest rate and inflation front, however, will prove very important for the sector.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: 5 Key Trends for 2023

Thu, 05 Jan 2023 15:57:48 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of the 5 key trends he thinks investors should keep an eye on in 2023. The inverted yield curve in the US could indicate a recession. 2-year government bonds often lead monetary policy; will central banks stay tough? Commodity prices could have further to go if inflation is not conquered. And the semiconductor and transport sectors both serve as excellent leading indicators of economic activity.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The key themes shaping returns in 2022

Thu, 22 Dec 2022 15:54:54 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell takes Simon Rose through the key themes affecting investors in 2022. Oil, gas and inflation is the first though some forget the oil price has been flat. Interest rates finally moved higher. With the fed so hawkish, the dollar was incredibly strong, at least until the end of the year. It was a year in which cryptocurrencies crumbled and in which the seemingly unstoppable tech sector went into reverse gear.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to decisions by Fed, BoE and ECB

Thu, 15 Dec 2022 15:36:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor, despite being in a broken-down car in freezing weather, talked to Simon Rose about the latest interest-rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of England and the ECB. With growth weakening, all three tilted away from a more hawkish position. In the UK, the pound and banks were lower ahead of the MPC's announcement while housebuilders were stronger because interest rate rises might not be as great as they might have been.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The economics of football clubs

Thu, 08 Dec 2022 15:05:48 -0000

With the World Cup in full flow and Manchester United up for sale, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the economics of football clubs. Although Man United was worth $78m when it floated in 1991 and is, in theory, set to sell for upwards of $4bn, for investors of late it, and every other club, has proved a poor investment. Russ explains how modern football financing works, pointing out that, in good times, all the money seems to go to the talent.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What's behind perkier markets? Has Santa come early?

Thu, 01 Dec 2022 15:42:44 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the reasons behind the recent better performance for markets around the world and the recent losses for the dollar. Although the outlook for the UK economy looks fairly bleak at present, it feels – as far as markets are concerned – as if the Santa rally has come early this year.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: Has Real Estate bottomed?

Thu, 24 Nov 2022 15:51:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why interest rates are so important for property and why shares such as Real Estate Investment Trusts fall as the 10-year "risk free" gilt yield goes up. But many are on big discounts to net asset value (which may yet fall of course). Central banks are more worried about deflation than inflation, reckons Russ, and if interest rates are peaking, it may be worth keeping an eye on the sector, bearing in mind that there are many different types of REITS and lots carry a good deal of debt.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Markets and the Autumn Statement

Thu, 17 Nov 2022 16:23:48 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor takes Simon Rose through the main points of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement. Investors will want to take note of the changes to dividends and Capital Gains Tax. She points out that market reaction was fairly muted although the electricity companies' shares were incredibly volatile. As so often, these days, of course, much of what Jeremy Hunt had to say had already been well signposted in advance.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: Dividend traps and the investing Holy Grail

Thu, 10 Nov 2022 15:27:08 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the housebuilders, hit by inflation, mortgage problems and dwindling demand with some cutting dividends. Pointing out the dangers of double-digit yielding shares, he wonders if the sector might be worth looking at soon. Although investors often go for growth or income, the Holy Grail, he says is a company that grows its dividend consistently, which will then produce both outcomes. How to find them? Do your homework with proper research.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US & UK interest rate rises & the latest from Sainsbury's

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 14:41:50 -0000

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, updates Simon Rose on the latest 0.75% interest rate rises from the US Fed and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. As he explains, markets have reacted badly, more in response to the statements about the future, than to the rises themselves. He assesses Sainsbury's half-year numbers which show just how difficult times are for the supermarkets, with the discounters becoming ever more of a problem. Although the shares reacted positively, it is after a decline of around 30% over the last year.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Has normality returned to markets & are bonds worthwhile again?

Thu, 27 Oct 2022 14:35:22 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell tells Simon Rose that, to a large extent, normality has been restored to financial markets since Rishi Sunak becamse Prime Minister. Although the Autumn Statement has been delayed to November 17, the markets appear not be too concerned. Laith explains what the markets are expecting when the MPC meets next week and advises investors to keep an eye on bonds, which – although not beating inflation – are considerably more interesting than a year ago.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The new Chancellor and the markets & the prospect of a recession

Thu, 20 Oct 2022 13:20:09 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose how the markets have reacted to the new Chancellor and his fiscal strategy. She discusses the resilience of the bond markets now the Bank of England's emergency intervention has ended – for the time being at least. And she explains how she feels that a recession for the UK is now an inevitability.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Contrarian investing after 14 years of mispricing money unravels

Thu, 13 Oct 2022 14:29:39 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the housebuilding sector and wonders if, in a tidal wave of bearishness, this is an opportunity for contrarian investors. He suggests bond yield proxies such as REITs are worth looking at. There are many types and, though offices may not fill again, the likes of supermarkets and online warehouses won't vanish. What we're seeing in the markets, he says, is the result of money being mispriced for 14 years and the encouragement of leverage and unwitting encouragement of complexity.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What the cut in oil output could mean for global growth

Thu, 06 Oct 2022 15:29:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the rally in the oil price in the wake of Opec+ planning to cut oil output by 2 million barrels a day. While this may mean more misery for the motorist, it could benefit oil companies, despite Shell slumping after its pre-earnings announcement. But with many countries teetering on the edge of recession, could the higher oil price depress economies still further?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The tenure of company CEOs

Thu, 06 Oct 2022 15:28:34 -0000

With Ben van Beurden stepping down as CEO of Shell, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the tenure of senior chief executives. With 9 years at the helm, he's the 24th-longest serving FTSE100 boss, the average currently being 6 years. Perhaps it was just a good time to leave. Russ also looks at the growing list of companies showing signs of demand ebbing or cost pressures building – or both.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What should investors do in these markets?

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 14:53:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell is slightly puzzled by some of the market reaction to the UK mini-budget, given how little debt, relatively speaking, is being added to the whole, though realising how poorly it was presenting. He thinks investors should get rid of anything causing discomfort in their portfolios as that discomfort could get much greater. He offers advice on the sort of stocks investors should be holding and, for reasons of diversification, wonders if short-term bonds might be worthwhile. But if there's a big shakedown, he says, then bargains will appear.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Interest rate decisions from the Fed and the BoE

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 14:50:39 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses with Simon Rose the Fed's hiking of interest rates by 75 basis points, with indications they have further to go. The move strengthened the dollar still further. In the UK, the Bank of England opted for a 50 basis point rise, rather than 75 (the highest level since 2008), with the MPC split over the decision. With the pound continuing to weaken, she also discusses why former ratesetter Danny Blanchflower has said investors should short sterling.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Markets worry about central banks but should ignore politicians

Thu, 15 Sep 2022 15:25:48 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell says that, for the moment, markets are dancing to the central banks' tune, with the Fed talking tough and the Bank of England and European Central Bank following in their wake. He also explains why investors in it for the long term should not try to second-guess what politicians are going to do.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why Jackson Hole is vital this year

Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:38:55 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor tells Simon Rose why the Jackson Hole central bank symposium in Wyoming is so important this year and what we might expect Fed Chair Jay Powell to say. With the severity of inflation a major driver of markets, we can expect them to be jittery for some time. In the UK, the new price cap will have a big effect on the CPI numbers.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Inflation & Interest Rates, Retailers & Darktrace

Thu, 18 Aug 2022 14:26:00 -0000

Danni Hewson of A J Bell discusses the latest inflation numbers with Simon Rose (with reference to her early record collection) and what might yet happen with interest rates. While many retailers are under pressure, she points out that life is different for those at the luxury end of the market. She discusses the bid, finally, for Ted Baker and what is probably the start of a massive bidding war for cybersecurity company Darktrace. She points out how cheap the UK market is for American investors and explains why it is so difficult growing complicated tech firms within the UK.

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The Financial Outlook For Personal Investors: US inflation, UK GDP and political uncertainty

Thu, 11 Aug 2022 14:58:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why markets viewed the lastest US inflation numbers – softening to 8.5% – so positively. She discusses what might be expected from the UK's GDP figures. She explains why the current political uncertainty in the UK – with the two very different approaches espoused by the candidates – is making the country a difficult place to invest, suggesting that, for the time being, UK markets are in a holding pattern.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Biggest Interest Rate Hike In 27 Years

Thu, 04 Aug 2022 13:17:00 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell explains why there was muted market reaction to the Bank of England's MPC increasing interest rates to 1.75%, the biggest increase in 27 years. With MPC members voting 8-1 in favour of the increase, Laith thought the Bank's forecast of 13% CPI inflation this winter showed them to be yet again behind the curve. If Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest, Laith wondered if the MPC's remit – to keep inflation to 2% – might be under review.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market perkiness and UK company earnings

Thu, 28 Jul 2022 14:27:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about why markets have been so buoyant despite aggressive monetary tightening from the US Federal Reserve. UK markets are lagging ahead of next week's MPC decision but earnings from commodity companies like Shell and Centrica were buoyant. Not so the reaction to results from either Barclays Bank or challenger Metro. Drinks giant Diagio is weathering the inflationary environment well, showing a bit shift to low- and no-alcohol drinks while ITV pleased investors with how well it is doing.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: ECB rate hike, latest CPI & Carnival rights issue

Thu, 21 Jul 2022 14:28:52 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about the ECB rate hike, bigger than expected in an effort to tackle inflation. He points out that there are 19 different inflation rates to consider and wonders how one interest rate can satisfy the requirements of so many countries. Are they, and other central banks, increasing rates into a possible recession? He also looks at the cost-of-living indicators for the UK and the latest capital raising exercise from cruise ship operator Carnival, a company, he feels, which may suffer if discretionary spending is cut back.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What do the stats tell us about housing and the economy?

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 14:04:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the current state of the housing market in the light of Barratt Developments' earnings. While the RICS show that price rises are slowing, the imbalance of housing supply and demand may provide support while UK rents have hit a record high. The latest GDP numbers were stronger than expected while retail sales continue to suffer; those retailers depending on discretionary spending are suffering most heavily.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How are markets affected by mid-term PMs?

Thu, 07 Jul 2022 14:21:42 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses with Simon Rose how markets have reacted to the resignation of Boris Johnson as PM, reflecting that no PLC board could behave as some politicians have done. He has looked at what difference it makes to shares when the Prime Minister is changed mid-term, finding that it makes little difference in the short term. Over a longer period, the economy is likely to have more of an effect although government policy – interventionist or not? – may yet be important. One thing is sure, this uncertainty won't encourage the overseas investors on whom the UK is so dependent.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why are ESG funds underperforming?

Thu, 30 Jun 2022 14:41:00 -0000

Myron Jobson of Interactive Investor discusses ESG or ethical investing funds with Simon Rose. He explains that, because green-orientated companies tend to be relatively new, they have suffered from the general rotation from growth to value stocks. For obvious reasons, they are underweight in the energy and defence sectors which have done well of late. He points out, though, that ESG funds have outperformed over the longer-term and suggests that investors be patient and not panic.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The three phases of bear markets

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:31:00 -0000

With even commodities now being dragged down by recession worries and fears of demand destruction, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the three phases of bear markets. He believes we might be about to enter the second phase but that we are still some way off the worst. Investors should concentrate on the preservation of capital, avoiding undue risk and perhaps shedding investments they aren't too confident about.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The ECB and interest rates & oil prices

Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:32:19 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the latest from the ECB, hinting that it will increase rates by 25 basis points in July and ending its asset purchase programme. With the price of filling a tank now hitting £100, she discusses what it means not just for households but also businesses. Which can pass on rising costs? As well as oil and commodity companies, she suggests that it could be worth looking at the luxury brands; they seem fairly immune, as long as there's no recession.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How to invest when central bankers get it wrong

Thu, 02 Jun 2022 14:28:48 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses those central bankers, past and present, admitting their mistakes on inflation and demonstrating that they're as fallible as any of us. He points out that with markets rising for years, investors were lulled into a false sense of security. He thinks investors should now be concentrating on valuation of shares. With the bid for Countrywide, he thinks it could be worth looking at builders and perhaps also at banks, both sectors currently out of favour.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The Chancellor's cost-of-living measures

Thu, 26 May 2022 14:15:33 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses with Simon Rose Chancellor Rishi Sunak's measures to alleviate the effects of inflation on the more vulnerable members of the public. She comments on the U-turn over the oil producers' windfall tax; an Interactive Investor poll found people were concerned, not just about their own investments, but what it might mean for their pensions. The markets, however, appear to have priced the tax in in advance.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How far will central banks go before markets crack?

Thu, 19 May 2022 14:08:51 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about representatives of the US Federal Reserve talking up interest rates, while big American retailers like Walmart and Target have demonstrated the problems they are already facing as inflation rises. So far they don't seem to be passing on all the price rises they face, while stock appears to be piling up. For Russ, the question now is what central banks will do and how far they can go before markets break.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: UK GDP, market volatility & Apple losing its crown

Thu, 12 May 2022 14:21:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest UK GDP figures and the pound hitting a 2-year low. She discusses the sell-off in tech stocks around the world and the switch to value shares and those which provide decent dividend yields. She points out that Apple has lost its crown as the world's most valuable company to Saudi Aramco and takes a brief look at the plunge in crypto that debunks the idea Bitcoin might be an inflation hedge.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are the MPC right to raise interest rates?

Thu, 05 May 2022 15:09:40 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decision to raise interest rates to 1% with a statement dampening some expectations for future sharp rises. He asks if the MPC (and the Fed) have painted themselves into a corner and wonders whether more debt should have been the answer to a debt crisis. Indeed, can 9 people in a room, however smart and well-intentioned, really set the price of money? As always, he offers advice for investors about what lies ahead.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US GDP, Meta, Standard Chartered, Barclays & Unilever

Thu, 28 Apr 2022 14:27:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest US GDP numbers (-1.4% in the first quarter) and asks if the US is heading for a recession. She discusses the surge in Meta shares after its earnings topped estimates. Here banks Standard Chartered and Barclays both jumped after their latest numbers. And Unilever has announced another jump in its prices. Will it be able to pass on higher prices to its customers or lose sales as a result?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: 5 recession indicators for investors to follow easily

Thu, 21 Apr 2022 15:02:37 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of 5 free indicators that any investor can follow quickly and easily to help decide what is coming next. He explains the importance of the oil price, the Dow Transportation Index, the health of small companies, the copper price and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Russ's conclusion: stagflation looks the likeliest outcome and real assets and gold could be an investor's best friend.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Investing for an inflationary environment

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 14:24:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the latest inflation numbers, warning that further rises are now inevitable. She looks at the results of Tesco, Asos and Easyjet and how they are affected by so many costs soaring. She discusses how investors can navigate the inflationary environment, pointing out that with cash giving such a negligible return, it's not a time to be uninvested. Investors should think about sectors such as banks, oil & gas and commodities and about companies that are price-givers rather than price-takers.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are recession indicators flashing red?

Thu, 07 Apr 2022 15:27:22 -0000

While many nervously watch the US yield curve, which briefly reversed recently, Russ Mould of A J Bell thinks investors should also pay attention to transportation indicators such as the Dow Transportation Index. He believes the market is better at predicting recessions than economists. Explaining why the yield curve is important and why he thinks stagflation is on the cards, he believes investors should fight shy of bonds and growth stocks and lean towards raw materials and real assets.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does the Spring Statement mean for investors?

Thu, 24 Mar 2022 15:46:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, delves into the Spring Statement, assessing its significance and what the Chancellor is doing to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. While the markets seemed indifferent to the Statement, it is becoming clear that the days of a "floating all boats" market are over. With increased volatility, it is now very much a stockpicker's market.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why is a central banker like a porcupine in a balloon factory?

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 15:57:22 -0000

Perusing the latest statement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Russ Mould of A J Bell says that central bankers currently resemble porcupines in a balloon factory. For investors, trying to second-guess events is extremely difficult, if not impossible. So they should ensure they are sensibly diversified while trying to avoid heavily-indebted companies, particularly in cylical industries. If your portfolio is keeping you awake at night, says Russ, then you should change it.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: NASDAQ's bear market & Amazon's buyback

Thu, 10 Mar 2022 16:37:36 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the rally in the NASDAQ and warns that history shows that, even in bear markets, there can be substantial rallies. As he points out, all the problems for the growth stocks that caused the market to fall are still present. He also considers Amazon's buyback plan and stock split, the first time the company has returned cash to investors since its market debut in 1997. Discussing buybacks in general, happening a great deal in the UK at the moment, he cautions investors to see whether the board are also buying into the company.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The knock-on effects of Ukraine

Thu, 03 Mar 2022 16:25:03 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the knock-on effect on economies and markets of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much depends, he says, on whether things stabilise quickly or not. Of all post-war conflicts, he feels the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 could be the most relevant, with its extraordinary impact on energy prices. If there is no rapid solution, then central banks could find themselves battling stagflation with little in their armouries. Investors should aim for a diversified portolio with plenty of exposure to "real stuff", the antithesis of what's worked for the past ten years or more.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The market reaction to the invasion of Ukraine

Thu, 24 Feb 2022 17:32:28 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the startling market movements in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and why the FTSE is proving more resilient than some. With energy and safe havens in demand, how should investors react and position themselves, with the future so uncertain and events doing nothing to still recent volatility?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Inflation and its effect on savings & bonds

Thu, 17 Feb 2022 15:53:00 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell looks at the recent UK inflation numbers and wonders if the Bank of England is right to consider the rise transitory or not. It doesn't bode well for NS&I's new Green Savings Bond, he points out, particularly if savers expect interest rates to keep rising. He discusses whether QE has had an effect on inflation and what is happening in the bond market.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The US tech sector, interest rates & the Fed

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 17:39:00 -0000

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor assesses the fortunes of some US tech stocks in the news recently, including Peloton, Uber and Disney. With inflation unexpectedly rising again to a 40-year high, she considers what the Federal Reserve might be able to do with its demand-side tools, when many problems are on the supply side of the economy.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: BoE interest rise & Meta Platforms/Facebook

Sat, 05 Feb 2022 22:37:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the Bank of England's interest rate rise, noticing how much more hawkish the MPC has become, with 4 members wanting an even bigger hike. Although QE has been brought to an end, he wonders how far the bank can go before something breaks - and similarly the Fed. He also looks at the plunge in Meta Platforms/Facebook shares, wondering where future growth could come from for the company.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How should investors cope with highly volatile markets?

Sun, 30 Jan 2022 00:24:24 -0000

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, explains why markets are so highly volatile at present, producing the worst start to the year since the financial crisis as QE is about to give way to QT (Quantitative Tightening). She points out that investors should try not to get emotional but to review their portfolio. Indeed, if companies you considered attractive only recently are now much cheaper, perhaps it could prove a bargain-hunting opportunity.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The Rise of Impact and ESG Investing

Mon, 24 Jan 2022 00:15:32 -0000

Welcome to another panel session from the Sustain:Social Conference, featuring an all-star line-up of investment professionals: Stephen Porter of Scottish Widows, Nanne Tolsma of Satelligence, Kenneth Mackenzie of Target Fund Managers, Myron Jobson of Interactive Investors and Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What will 40-year-high inflation in the US mean for markets?

Sat, 15 Jan 2022 21:07:02 -0000

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, talks to Simon Rose about the likely effects of US inflation hitting 7%, a forty-year high. With the labour market there tight, as in the UK, she considers what the Federal Reserve's response is likely to be, given that the problems are caused more by the supply side of the economy, rather than the demand side. And what will this mean for markets and the sort of tech stocks that have been riding so high?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US markets' fright over Fed minutes

Sat, 08 Jan 2022 18:30:00 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell explains to Simon Rose why US markets have reacted so badly to the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting that they shrugged off last month. He marks the rise of Apple to become the world's first $3 trillion company. Back in the UK, he sees early signs of optimism for the retail sector over the holidays.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The case for investment trusts

Thu, 30 Dec 2021 09:00:00 -0000

Jonathan Davis, editor of the Investment Trusts Handbook, tells Simon Rose what makes investment trusts special and why investors should consider their merits. He explains the differences to other types of funds, including the premium and discount. He discusses the yields on alternative assets (including renewable energy and even music royalties) and how trusts can continue paying dividends even in bad years. The handbook, from Harriman House, is available in hardbook or free as an ebook (https://tinyurl.com/mt69fc24).

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A look back and a look ahead, Janus-like

Fri, 24 Dec 2021 21:28:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks back at 2021, with record highs in the US, India and France and the UK doing creditably and with a decent yield. Oil rose 40% year on year and may yet surprise in 2022 while government bonds were disappointing. Gold surprised by doing little, despite the return of inflation. Looking ahead, Russ believes commodities and real assets may be the safest things, although the actions of central banks will still determine the state of the markets.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Investing with rising inflation and interest rates

Sun, 19 Dec 2021 17:36:32 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell wonders if the Bank of England is behind the curve, raising interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%. CPI inflation is 5.1% with RPI the highest in 30 years. He gives an example of company already implementing double-digit price rises. If investors think inflation and interest rates are set to rise further, Russ offers advice. What's worked for the past decade and more may no longer be sensible in the future.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Will company payouts support the UK market?

Sun, 12 Dec 2021 15:42:49 -0000

As a 12th company in the Footsie this year announces a special dividend, Russ Mould of A J Bell calculates that these, taken together with cashbacks and regular dividends, have amounted to payouts of £105bn, putting the FTSE on around a 5% yield. With fewer IPOs and placings than usual and dividend cover approaching 2, he feels this ought to be supportive of the market, even if some investors might baulk at the oils, banks and miners that are the big players.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are we finally seeing the Taper Tantrum?

Sat, 04 Dec 2021 16:07:40 -0000

With markets roiled by the new Covid variant and the Fed Chairman admitting inflation may not be temporary after all, Russ Mould of A J Bell asks if we are finally seeing the Taper Tantrum central banks have been so nervous about. Quoting the US Misery Index and the Fear Index, he feels investors - to whom absolutely rather than relative return is most important – should not think that what has worked for 10 years will necessarily work in future. He has some suggestions for protecting private investors' portfolios.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Biden talking down the oil price & interest rates

Fri, 26 Nov 2021 12:56:45 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the shakeout in UK energy companies and casts his eye across the Atlantic where President Biden has been trying to talk down the oil price. Noting that price rises might have something to do with the $14 trillion pumped into the US economy since the pandemic began, he speculates on what will happen to the oil and gas price with new exploration so frowned up.

He also looks at the second interest rate rise in New Zealand and, with 91 rises around the world so far this year, he wonders whether the Fed, BoE and ECB can continue to hold out.

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The Financial Outlook: How serious is UK inflation, Shell's simplification & Britcoin

Mon, 22 Nov 2021 00:19:33 -0000

Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, asks if CPI rising to 4.2% indicates a return to rising prices or if it might prove relatively temporary. He looks at Shell's decision to ditch its dual-share class and commit to the UK. And he is intrigued by news that the Treasury and Bank of England are to consider a central bank digital currency, nicknamed Britcoin.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US inflation at a 30-year high & oil capex at a multi-year low

Sun, 14 Nov 2021 22:28:12 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks behind the 30-year-high numbers for US inflation. PI is 6.2% but the producer price index is 8.6% with intermediate producer prices up 25% and raw materials climbing 57% year on year.

While high energy prices are responsible for some of that, he also points out that the capital investment of the oil majors is, despite the high oil price, at around a 20-year low. He explains the reason behind this (is oil the new tobacco?) but wonders if oil should be written off as an investment just yet.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does the MPC's "studious inactivity" imply?

Sat, 06 Nov 2021 22:15:55 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's decision to take no action on interest rates. He wonders if their "studious inactivity" is likely to prove and that all the evidence of mounting inflationary pressure will indeed prove transient. Will we get the Goldilocks economy or has the horse already bolted through the open stable door? There must be a tipping point with interest rates in regard to equities, he says, but where will it be?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: the unabridged Budget speech.

Sat, 30 Oct 2021 22:08:00 -0000

If you missed Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivering his speech on 27 October, here's your chance to hear it. Plus, read our commentary on Monday 1 November for Share Radio's perspective, including our assessment of the contrast with the mid-70s, when public borrowing last hit stratospheric levels.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Inflation, interest rates and the Budget

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 09:41:55 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell discusses the slight fall in inflation last month to 3.1%, pointing out the distortions caused by the pandemic the year earlier. Markets are betting on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November, but is it likely to happen? Laith looks forward to next week's Budget, thinking investors may be hit by a hike in CGT. And he also highlights the first Bitcoin ETF launching in the US, giving Bitcoin further legitimacy.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Which "flation" are we heading for?

Sat, 16 Oct 2021 13:35:27 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, states the case for us heading into a period of inflation, deflation and stagflation. But which will it be? Cautioning that while it might be too early to tell for sure, investors should not expect more of what we've had for the past decade or so, Russ gives some guides to indicators investors should keep an eye on. He also reminds investors that it is always sensible to have some cash in hand - just in case.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rising gilt yields (and why it matters) & Tesco

Sun, 10 Oct 2021 17:02:35 -0000

Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, discusses the recent sharp rise in gilt yields, explaining why it's happening (rising oil and gas prices and a fear of inflation) and why it is important for everyone, not just those with an interest in fixed interest securities. He also looks at the recent results from Tesco, which pleasantly surprised the market, and explains what the retailer is doing right at a time when when of its competitors has been taken over.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are we heading for stagflation and what can investors do?

Fri, 01 Oct 2021 13:47:50 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the oil and gas crisis, which is affecting many countries, not just the UK. Central bankers are now showing belated signs of being concerned about inflation and possibly even stagflation. With shortages of microchips, fuel, CO2 and even Christmas turkeys, Russ offers advice to investors who may never have experienced a time of stagflation, last seen in the 1970s.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How serious is Evergrande and are the Fed about to taper?

Fri, 24 Sep 2021 21:17:19 -0000

Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, looks at the problems of Chinese property company Evergrande and considers what the financial ramifications are likely to be. With the Federal Reserve hinting that it might begin cutting its pandemic stimulus as early as November, he looks at the popularity of the UK government's first green gilt, which could have been sold ten times over, and the impending arrival of an NS&I green savings bond later this year.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The 50th anniversary of the demise of Bretton Woods

Fri, 17 Sep 2021 10:25:26 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, and a history buff, considers similarities between today's financial environment and the closing of the gold window by President Nixon in 1971, since when the dollar has lost 85% of its purchasing power. He explains why it might make sense to buy toys early for Christmas and why investors might want to pay attention to the level of margin debt in the United States (one of the frothy areas of the market), as it has just dipped for the first time since February 2020.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is the monetary punch bowl being withdrawn a little?

Fri, 10 Sep 2021 13:01:26 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the ECB announcement which includes a slowing down of the rate at which it purchases bonds. Although the Fed is pressing on regardless, there are many instances of other central banks tapping the brake pedal gently. Explaining the confiscatory nature of inflation, he says that investors who disagree with the BoE and Fed that inflation is transitory should shun bonds, keep some cash to hand and look at value stocks and companies with branded pricing power.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why investing in shares needs a much higher profile on TV and Radio

Sat, 04 Sep 2021 13:03:00 -0000

Lord John Lee has become a champion for people investing in the stock market over recent years: he's written three books on investing, he's a patron of ShareSoc, the society for individual shareholders in the United Kingdom, and he's now challenging Government, broadcasters and regulators to encourage a much higher profile for investing in shares on TV and radio. Gavin Oldham meets with John to discuss the background to his initiative and his proposals for change; and they go on to consider how customer share ownership can be expanded, how to encourage more active participation in shareholder voting, and how to improve financial education.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Sainsbury's & Supermarkets and Paypal & Cryptocurrencies

Thu, 26 Aug 2021 19:39:00 -0000

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at A J Bell, looks at the rumours of a bid for Sainsbury's. In the light of the bidding for rival supermarket chain Morrison's, he asks whether private investors should rethink their attitude towards the sector.

He also looks at a new service from Paypal allowing UK consumers to trade and hold cryptocurrencies. With a potential (not yet offered in Britain) to process crypto transactions between consumers, he wonders if such a transactional facility is any more than just a sales gimmick.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The bid for Morrison's and what it means for the market

Thu, 19 Aug 2021 16:01:07 -0000

Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the bid for Morrison's, explaining why it is attractive and pointing out how cheap the lacklustre UK market now looks for overseas investors. Although the FTSE 100 Share Index has been mostly immune, that's not the case with the 250. Is the UK now open for foreign takeovers and why are a growing number of companies shying away from listing on the stock market altogether?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is the BoE got right on inflation and calls for UK institutions to invest in infrastructure

Fri, 13 Aug 2021 10:24:00 -0000

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at A J Bell, explains why the Bank of England is not about to raise interest rates, despite its forecasts of inflation way about the 2% target. He warns that investors should make sure, however, that they are prepared for higher interest rates. And, in the light of the Prime Minister and Chancellor calling for the institutions to invest in long-term UK projects, he considers why that isn't already happening and what would need to change to make it tempting for them to do so.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Lessons to be learned from the results season

Fri, 06 Aug 2021 13:01:00 -0000

Russ Mould of A J Bell considers the results season, embracing companies that helped us get through Covid but are fading now and those companies that suffered and which are now speeding ahead. One almost universal constant, though, is the complaint about higher input costs and staff shortages. Whatever central bankers say, inflation is already here and have a big effect. Which companies are going to be least affected by it?

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The Financial Outlook for Persona Investors: Why the BofE might be right not to worry about inflation

Sun, 01 Aug 2021 16:05:47 -0000

Laith Khalaf of A J Bell looks at some of the reasons the Bank of England might be right not to concern itself unduly with inflation, with the effects of the oil price and rising wages set to work their way out of the system before long. However, with the call on inflation being so hard to make for certain, he suggests that investors should ensure their portfolios aren't unduly skewed towards a low-interest-rate environment, reckoning it important that they ensure they are balanced.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The prospect for UK banks.

Sat, 24 Jul 2021 11:08:32 -0000

Ahead of the banks' results, Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell asks if the markets are saying something is not quite right in the sector. With all banks trading below book value, are they screamingly cheap or is it the case that the underlying valuations will prove to be highly inaccurate. Investors' attitudes may depend on whether they are optimistic for the economy as a whole or fear the worst.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How to protect your portfolio against inflation's return

Sat, 17 Jul 2021 11:18:00 -0000

Have you seen what's happening to second-hand car prices? Tim Price, director of Price Value Partners, is convinced that inflation is returning and feels he has the most compelling investment opportunity of his entire life. He argues that investors should be inflation-proofing their portfolios and he discusses types of shares, sectors and countries that should fare better than others. He suggests value rather than growth stocks with an emphasis on companies extracting or highly-linked to commodities (at their cheapest in 60 years) while he favours Asia (though not China) and, in particular Vietnam and Japan. If the market falls out of bed, wise investors will have ensured they have available funds to take advantage of the fact that quality investments will be even cheaper than now.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why we shouldn't trust central bankers' views on inflation

Thu, 08 Jul 2021 18:23:00 -0000

For Tim Price, director of Price Value Partners, the only story in town at the moment is inflation. He places little trust in the view of central bankers that the inflation now being seen will be temporary. With the massive rise of government, corporate and consumer debt in so many countries, he considers the situation extremely dangerous and likely to worsen quickly. Although painting a pessimistic picture, he promises next week to suggest some positive moves worried investors can make to protect themselves.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Prospects for the UK market 5 years after the Brexit vote

Fri, 02 Jul 2021 21:38:00 -0000

Russ Mould looks at the performance of the UK market in the 5 years since the EU referendum vote, finding its performance poor against all major markets. He feels, however, that might be about to change with aggregate profit estimates being significantly increased in the past three months alone. He is particularly optimistic if growth and inflation surprise on the upside..

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The dilemma facing the Fed & Bank of England

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 20:43:00 -0000

Russ Mould looks at the rather limited policy options facing the US Federal Reserve and, for similar reasons, the Bank of England. With federal debt mushrooming in 40 years from $1 trilion to $28 trillion and inflation showing signs of returning, what are the Fed's options? Are they right to consider the spike in inflation temporary? What if they are wrong and we return to an inflationary environment after so long with minimal interest rates?

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are IPOs indicating the end of the boom?

Sat, 12 Jun 2021 13:29:00 -0000

Russ Mould, wonders if new floats can help investors determine when the market might turn. He quotes John Brooks writing, "If one fact is glaringly obvious in stock market history, it is that a new issues craze is the last stage of a dangerous boom". Although a few offers ought to warn investors that if it's such a brilliant idea, why are the original investors selling, he does not feel that the UK market is getting IPO-overheated.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Investment for Beginners

Sun, 04 Oct 2015 23:00:00 -0000

Why invest? Glen Goodman, with the assistance of Annie Weston, explains why investing makes sense and talks you through the merits of the stock market, in this tenth episode of Share Radio's 'Managing My Money' course. What's the difference between saving and investment? It's all in the risk. They discuss shares, bonds and funds, and which perform best over the long term.

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