And as they Order the Disorder, the duo experiment with a quick fire round where they discuss: What might actually happen on US-Iran negotiations, Trump’s tanking approval ratings, his constant firing of staff, Virginia Redistricting, and what that means for this year’s Congressional midterms.

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Write us to get your question answered at Disordershow@gmail.com

Producer: George McDonagh

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Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases, exclusive access to live events AND A GUARENTEE WE ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS, visit disordershow.com/club

Watch Jane’s Iran series here https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLsRO_Izf4VcJkN3vlpbFdTYnx0lpZyPus

Listen to Jason on The Bunker discuss Orban’s defeat and its implications for US and EU politics here https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/populism-will-eat-itself-how-orb%C3%A1ns-defeat-changes-the-game/id1496246490?i=1000761547591&l=ml

Listen to Jason on BBC Scotland talk about the Assassination attempt on Trump at the WHCA: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002vm42

Watch Jason recapitulate the Disorder Paradigm on a sister show Democrats v Dictators:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJekUfZ6wg

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In 2026, April 21 is Israel’s Independence Day. These are tough times for the Jewish State in international public opinion. By all accounts it has made mistakes, violated international law, committed war crimes. But it has also been defending itself against an unprecedented multipronged assault.  Other states don’t risk losing their international legitimacy because they have bad or immoral leadership.

Support among Americans and Europeans for Israel is down and even young diasporic Jews report increasingly negative appraisals of Israel.  To investigate the situation in the Middle East, the position of Jews in Britain, and the rise of anti-semitic attacks on Britain’s Jewish community, I am joined by returning Champion Phil Rosenberg. He is the President of the Board of Deputies of British Jews.  Phil is a former Labour councilor for West Hampstead and previously Director of the Faiths Forum for London.

In today’s episode, we wish to use this commemorative day to look at a few deeper questions:  How is Antisemitism surging globally and why? How does  Antisemitism manifest itself in the UK and Australia and how it is fascinating how differently it portrays from anti-Americanism? What is Zionism? Is it relevant in today’s world? Is it part of an orderly world or is it a Disordering ideal? What is the Role of international entities and Diasporic Jews in supporting Israel’s right to defend itself while criticizing certain policies? 

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

A Partial list of the North London Arson Attacks: https://x.com/philr_r/status/2045605612072132860?s=46&t=cw4unVonh1qJ-YBPzgIl2Q

Origen Story on the Meaning of Zionism : https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/zionism-part-1/id1624704966?i=1000618863154

Call Me Back Pod.. Analysts find in the Iran-Israel-America War confirmation of their pre-existing political beliefs: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-continuation-of-war-by-other-means-with-tal-becker/id1539292794?i=1000761725136 

Iran directed arson attacks in Australia and ‘fanned the flames’ of antisemitism, country’s spy chief says: https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2025%2Faug%2F26%2Firan-directed-arson-attacks-in-australia-spy-chief-says-ntwnfb&data=05%7C02%7C%7C605a5ea26d9b48554e2408de9d6ca385%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C639121287069184737%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=1wSJ%2BxaXICsYlRBvsu2Rbd4MJ08DRc%2BrqlbAIv%2Fv0HU%3D&reserved=0

The most recent Sunday morning April 19 attack: https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/attempted-arson-attack-at-kenton-united-synagogue-in-northwest-london-pfbikif1

And: https://x.com/philr_r/status/2045782024338768271?s=46&t=cw4unVonh1qJ-YBPzgIl2Q

What is the Board of Deputies: https://bod.org.uk/ 

Phil’s Bio: https://bod.org.uk/who-we-are/phil-rosenberg/ 

Phil’s Article: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/were-family-not-critical-friends-rosenberg-sets-out-boards-israel-stance/

History of Israel Independence Day: https://nationaltoday.com/israel-independence-day/

Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace

Patrick Wintour https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/donald-trump-tehran-war-mismanaged-posts-progress-peace 

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 To find out, we return to friend of the show and former Co-host Arthur Snell returns to Disorder to explore the themes of his new book, Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive it. The overall approach of the book showcases how the Enduring Disorder paradigm epitomizes the collective action challenges democracies face as they compete against each other and see-saw from one policy to another while dictatorships tend to think much more long term when it comes to how to prepare for the opportunities and challenges of climate change.

This investigation comes at a highly relevant time as the Iran War has made clear how the geopolitics of energy, electricity, AI Data centres, critical minerals, and climate change are the top table issues of our day. Arthur and Jason start off talking about the situation in the Straight of Hormuz and how developments there will affect the energy transition. They quickly pivot to a discussion of the geopolitics of the Arctic and Antarctic, especially the scramble for the Northwest Passage.  

Jason points out that China has been strategic about how to benefit from climate change, while Western nations have only notched tactical successes, but have not systematically prepared for the top table challenges that climate changes poses for humanity.

As they Order the Disorder, Arthur explores who the approach of Antarctic of international legal treaties could be expanded to other domains and how we could international, socialize, and demilitarize the geopolitics of climate change.

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For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Relentless sun and ruthless populists: how the climate crisis will change the next 20 years https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2026/mar/04/arthur-snell-interview-geopolitics-climate-crisis-book-elemental?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive it https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/arthur-snell/elemental-the-new-geography-of-climate-change-and-how-we-survive-it/9781035412945/

Listen and watch Jason explain ‘How will the Iran war reshape global supply chains?’  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZyAP5tFXo

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To discuss the latest, including the role of Europe and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be theoretically and practically opened by military force, Jason is joined by Michael Stephens, senior fellow at Global Nation and an associate fellow at RUSI. He ran to be an MP for the Tories in Putney; he speaks Hebrew and Arabic; and has decades of expertise in the Gulf States, Syria, and inside the UK government. Michael and Jason discuss the theological background to the Islamic Republic’s ideology, the positive role Britain can play, whether the mere existence of this conflict helps the Chinese exert more power globally, and what the Europeans could do to Order the Disorder if they wanted to.

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit disordershow.com/club

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Listen and watch Jason explain ‘How will the Iran war reshape global supply chains?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoZyAP5tFXo

Listen and watch Jason explain, ‘Why did Trump fire Pam Bondi?’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id8jarTtdFI

Want to learn more about Shi’i Islam and how it informs the Islamic Republic’s decision making, read Moojan Momen’s brilliant An Introduction to Shi’i Islam: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Introduction-Shii-Islam-History-Doctrines/dp/0300034997

To listen to our previous interview with Michael visit https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/Zjk5NzljMzItOGNkNS0xMWYwLWFiNGEtMDNjMjExN2VkNWU3

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To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Give feedback on Disorder here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CX7JB3W 

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch 

Chatham House Prize | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/sudans-volunteer-led-aid-network-receives-2025-chatham-house-prize  

Donate to the Emergency Response Rooms - Donate | Support Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms — SUDAN MUTUAL AID COALITION — SUDAN MUTUAL AID COALITION - https://www.mutualaidsudan.org/donate 

Article that makes the case for the Iran war - https://apple.news/Ac9j4I-MHSFuj6tgL1zCiUA 

Senate foreign relations committee on the folly of waiving sanctions on Iran’s oil - https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/dem/release/shaheen-schumer-reedwarner-warren-statementon-trump-administrationdecision-to-ease-iran-oil-sanctions 

The Times on European leaders considering a scenario where the U.S. makes a deal with Russia and turns its back on Europe - https://apple.news/A-NCiRk_2QVCXwWoStWlppg 

U.K. Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy says U.K. must plan for a transition to greater European leadership of NATO - https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/111/national-security-strategy-joint-committee/news/212889/mps-and-lords-call-for-more-clarity-on-governments-plan-for-uk-national-security/ 

Frankly podcast on “What To Do As The World Falls Apart” which Jane found super interesting - and which highlighted the need to think now, in the current window of relative stability, about the institutions of the future, before the institutions of today actually fall apart (referenced in our discussion on NATO) - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-great-simplification-with-nate-hagens/id1604218333?i=1000756316022 

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To discuss, Jane Kinninmont is joined by Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations. They discuss the current role of UN peacekeepers, what they can and cannot do, and how they can find a role in a world where fewer peace agreements are being made.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Read more on UN Peacekeeping here: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/un-at-80-why-it-needs-to-reinvigorate-peacekeeping/ 

Read more on why UN Peacekeeping works here: 

https://cic.nyu.edu/resources/conflict-and-violence-prevention-works-how-do-we-sell-it-politically/ 

Jane adds:

The Institute for Economics and Peace has highlighted the long-term downward trend in funding for peacekeeping and peacebuilding around the world: 

“Between 2008 to 2024, peacekeeping and peacebuilding funding declined by 26 per cent, with peacebuilding falling 39 per cent (from $8.7 billion to $5.3 billion) and peacekeeping down to $5.8 billion”

As a result, “Despite a nearly unchanged number of missions over the past two decades (60 in 2008 vs 61 in 2024), the number of deployed peacekeeping personnel has halved – from 187,586 to 94,451 – largely due to funding shortfalls.”

Meanwhile the same institute estimates in its 2025 Global Peace Index that “The economic impact of violence is now US$19.97 trillion, or 11.6 per cent of global GDP, driven by rising military spending and conflict-related losses.”

In 2026, those costs are going to be way higher because of the enormous damage already being done to energy infrastructure in the Gulf and to global trade flows.

So part of the ordering solution needs to be spreading an understanding that cutting the funds for peacekeeping, peacebuilding and conflict prevention is quite literally a false economy.

This case is powerfully made in a great new article from NYU’s Centre on International Cooperation:

Few news headlines describe when a city’s homicide rate falls quietly over a decade, when a community at risk never quite tips into gang recruitment, when a potential terrorist is redirected by a counsellor rather than arrested by a counter-terrorism unit, or when a conflict is narrowly averted. Successful prevention is often invisible. And that is why it often keeps losing to the politics of urgency.”

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This week, Jason Pack and Mark Lobel discuss the big picture economic problems of the Iran war, including: America’s doomed insurance and military proposals to get oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, the collosal impact of continued closure on the global economy; the situation on America’s and Britain’s relationships with their Gulf allies; what rising oil prices and swelling Russian coffers means for Russia’s war on Ukraine; why China could be a surprise Orderer in this (if they chose to play the part); Starmer’s triangulating response to this crisis; and – as they Order the Disorder – the role Britain and Europe could play in mediating this conflict.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Listen: OIES Podcast – The US-Israeli War with Iran: Continuing Impacts on Oil Markets

 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2kLZsWi4x8d6LU7d1le91J?si=0tVfxYmdRRS7QYx7GhZNbQ&ct=1&t=1 

Nations Respond With Caution to Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Strait of Hormuz: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/world/middleeast/trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran-warships.html 

Is Trump having another Taj Mahal moment on our YouTube channel: 

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/V6HTwiNG_Ck

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We are trying to focus on solutions, to see what is working in Britain, and to chat through various amorphous topics, such as: ‘What is Strategy?’ and why does democracy have a communications problem.

In 2011, statistics show that 11 democracies suffered backsliding into autocracy. Today: that number is in the mid-40s. With Trump’s America at the peak of that shift, what can be done to reverse that trend? And better yet, what can be done to protect all democracies going forward? Can institutions be made in advance that could protect democratic backsliding before it happens?!?

To build on our recent episode with Graham Zellick on how democracy is protected in the UK, Jason is joined by Richard Symons. Richard is the founder of Compass & Co —a UK-based strategy and communications firm helping leaders with policy, corporate strategy, and clear messaging in complex environments. 

They discuss the pressing issue of democratic backsliding, what it means, what causes it, some innovative solutions being proposed, including in Wales, and as they Order the Disorder, they look at the need for a ‘right to facts’ type law, and why bold leadership is needed to maintain democracy.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on compass and Co https://www.compass-strat.com/ 

Read: The Revenge of Power: How Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Revenge-Power-Autocrats-Reinventing-Politics/dp/B096WDF625/ 

Read: Has Wales found the solution to Autocracy? https://justhinkin.substack.com/p/has-wales-found-the-solution-to-autocracy?r=3cs2wr 

Read: What's Really Driving America to In’soul'vency? https://justhinkin.substack.com/p/whos-driving-the-insoulvency?r=3cs2wr

Listen to our episode with Sir Geoff Mulgan to hear more about his Right to Truth idea: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/Y2Y1ZTFhOTAtZjJjNC0xMWYwLTljMTMtYzc5MjBhZmIxYTU0 

Listen to our episode with Elie Honig where similar issues are addressed in the US context and how the powerful are held to account via the Special Prosecutor system: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/NmU0ZGIzZTQtYjhhMS0xMWYwLTk0NWQtZWZlN2MwMWI1YWJm 

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But back to the matter at hand, Trump certainly knows how to dominate the news cycle but mostly he does so via means that illegal and impeachable in the United States. Why then are the powerful able to be held to account in the UK (e.g. Lord Mandelson and former Prince Andrew) but not in the USA? 

No one is above the law in Britain. TRULY. Not the Lords, not the Princes of the realm. And Parliamentarians don’t decide who is prosecuted and the Government can’t protect its friends. And this analysis isn’t BS. It is literally vouched for by the people who have designed and operated the current legal system.

With the arrest of Lord Mandelson and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Britons can TRULY say that their legal system does actually seriously investigate powerful people who have done something wrong and that the system is beyond partisan influence. 

What makes the British legal system work? And what are its vulnerabilities? Is it more fragile than we realise?

Today, Jason Pack is joined by Professor Graham Zellick, a distinguished public and constitutional lawyer, university leader and judge, to explore the UK’s rather remarkable constitution (or lack of). They look at the independence of bodies like the Crown Prosecution Service; how and why they are beyond political interference; and whether they need to be protected from a potential future Neo-populist leader. And as they Order the Disorder, they debate whether these bodies need to be strengthened yet further, or if Farage or an equivalent could dismantle them as quickly as Trump has done in the US. They explain that Britian has built into its ‘constitution’ a lot of the solutions already and that there is actually much that can be learned from it on the world stage.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Iran content as discussed in the intro to the episode:

Why the Iran war is congressionally illegal ‘Jason Pack debating Trump’s NSC Exec Dir on BBC 5 Live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ0rg-Dmw5M

But What if Iran Disintegrates Into Chaos? Great Espionage, Where's the Wisdom Now?

Jason Pack on the Mossad Files with Dan Raviv https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/but-what-if-iran-disintegrates-into-chaos-great-espionage/id1796257169?i=1000753187080 

The 2011 Libya No Fly Zone is the correct analogy for the 2026 aerial war against Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIbfFKJYLOo

#50 - Epstein, Iran, and Who Benefits When the World Burns Jason on Regilio v Everything.  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/50-epstein-iran-and-who-benefits-when-the-world-burns/id1834972973?i=1000752957478

For more on Graham visit https://www.academicspeakersbureau.com/speakers/graham-zellick 

Listen to our episode with Elie Honig where similar issues are addressed in the US context and how the powerful are held to account via the Special Prosecutor system: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/NmU0ZGIzZTQtYjhhMS0xMWYwLTk0NWQtZWZlN2MwMWI1YWJm 

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/world/europe/iran-london-spying-arrest-jewish-community.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

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So now, the entire Middle East is at war, Trump has practiced another regime decapitation operation without Congressional approval and Iran has rained down missiles across the Sunni Gulf and Israel killing civilians and targeting key infrastructure like airports and tourist hotels. 

Jane and Jason ask why, when and how? Is this whole thing just a disorderly distraction from Trump’s appearance in the Epstein files and his desire to give Pam Bondi cover for her ongoing coverup? Jason thinks that is the primary motivation. Jane and Jason agree that Trump is unlikely to have an end game and that regime change has never worked solely via airpower and that even with a popular uprising that may now emerge, the situation could resemble Libya, which hasn’t exactly had the greatest track record since Western airpower helped a popular uprising oust Qadhafi.

As Jane and Jason try to Order the Disorder, they talk about solutions and where Europe, the UN, and regional allies could try to steer the region towards a more peaceful outcome. Critically, they discuss the issue of the lack of depth (i.e. America and Israel running out of missile interceptors) and how the political and military realms may interact to provide solutions and offramps, especially if the Gulfis and Europeans mediate. Time to head to the Omani Embassy in Geneva… that is my favourite place to be.

To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

The C.I.A. Helped Pinpoint a Gathering of Iranian Leaders. Then Israel Struck:  https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/us/politics/cia-israel-ayatollah-compound.html 

At Least Eight Killed After Iranian Missile Hits Central Israeli City: 

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-01/ty-article/.premium/at-least-five-killed-after-iranian-missile-hits-central-israeli-city/0000019c-a962-d4dd-a9df-bbe250410000 

Few will mourn leader of ‘evil’ regime Ali Khamenei, says UK defence secretary: 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/01/uk-defence-secretary-john-healey-few-will-mourn-ali-khamenei-iran-us-israel

Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination

The U.S. and Israeli militaries are targeting Iran’s leaders—but that may only strengthen the state.: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-ayatollah-assassination-israel-us-war/?tpcc=must_read_email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%5BMust-Read%5D%20Obit%20Khamenei%20-%20022826&utm_term=iran_israel_conflict_interest_90day_emailopen 

Why are the US and Israel attacking Iran? What we know so far: 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-and-israel-attack-iran-what-we-know-so-far

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To join our Mega Orderers Club for ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on KeenOn go to https://www.keenon.tv/episodes/ 

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Podcasts mentioned:

Disorder Episode 167 — "Epstein Survivor Rina Oh on Getting Justice: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/MThlZTFkZjgtMGI4NS0xMWYxLWJkMWMtOGY0YjYzYzZiZGYw 

Disorder Episode 168 — "How Can Epstein's Victims Get Closure? with Civil Rights Attorney Lisa Bloom: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/M2M2NThlNjAtMGI4NS0xMWYxLWExOWItMDcxODNmNmQ5OTky 

Bobby Capucci's "Jeffrey Epstein: The Cover-Up Chronicles" — deep dives into the Epstein files: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Jeffrey-Epstein-The-Coverup-Chronicles/dp/B0DZPKRYFG 

Jewish Currents — left-wing Jewish treatment of Epstein's connections to Ehud Barak and the Mossad: https://jewishcurrents.org/on-jeffrey-epstein 

Peter Bale interview (Episode 2813) — discussed the Epstein media cover-up and Michael Wolff's attempts to interest mainstream media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUNxStxgdxg 

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In this episode, Jane and Jason are brimming with ideas, including: how to better police the role of British elites when they play the role of Butlers to the world of dark money and act as useful idiots in reputation laundering; how we could possibly learn from the Olympic spirit to create our very own Mega Ordering ‘diplomatic Olympics’; why Europe needs to step up and play the Ordering role; and how they – and other democracies globally – could set up their own ‘diplomatic board of peace’ to counter Trump’s largely farcical iteration.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, to get our bonus episode answering Jonathan Bull’s question about Jason’s elitism and political mobilization in America, as well as ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club, to get our bonus episode answering Jonathan Bull’s question, as well as ad free listening, early episode releases and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

LISTEN: Epstein and the Capitalist Conspiracy - Jewish Currents Podcast https://jewishcurrents.org/epstein-and-the-capitalist-conspiracy 

Something’s Rotten in the Norwegian Royal Family - Vanity Fair https://apple.news/A1A_GZVoYR1mIJeh5TYqXZQ 

Watch Jane about the Munich Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6SjrRsPpUQ&t=751s 

New law will 'criminalise lying' by senior ministers: https://x.com/skynews/status/2024746880656163082?s=46&t=Tbkgp9CYb-P2gQf2YVZ19g

Trump gathers members of Board of Peace for first meeting, with some U.S. allies wary – NPR  https://apple.news/AFjSdW9dCTu6SdN_niMDNHg

Who is at the Board of Peace Conference: https://x.com/mike_wagenheim/status/2024439124845895684?s=46&t=Tbkgp9CYb-P2gQf2YVZ19g 

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As Mark and Lisa Order the Disorder, she outlines what justice would look like for the Epstein victims and how we as a world can improve how we acheive justice for victims of grooming and sexual abuse. Lisa proposes the concrete step of advocating for a blanket ban on the statute of limitations for sexual abuse.  

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on Lisa and her work visit: https://thebloomfirm.com/lawyer/lisa-bloom/ 

READ: Chuck Schumer's Floor Remarks Introducing Virginia's Law To Help Provide Justice For Survivors Of Abuse

https://www.democrats.senate.gov/news/press-releases/leader-schumer-floor-remarks-introducing-virginias-law-to-help-provide-justice-for-survivors-of-abuse  

READ: Todd Blanche says review of Jeffrey Epstein sex-trafficking case ‘is over’

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/01/epstein-files-todd-blanche-deputy-ag 

READ: Epstein files reference 'nine-year-old victim' in disturbing unredacted emails seen by lawmakers

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/unredacted-epstein-files-girl-9-mention-emails-b1270395.html 

The theatrical play 'Here There are Blueberries' discussed on the show:

https://www.stratfordeast.com/whats-on/all-shows/here-there-are-blueberries 

READ: Melinda French Gates References a 'Reckoning as a Society' over Bill Gates Epstein Claims

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/celebrity/articles/melinda-french-gates-references-reckoning-180726489.html 

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch 

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 As the implications of the Epstein scandal grows ever larger and the whole affair presents terrifying perspectives from which to view our geopolitics over of the last two decades, we here at Disorder, would like to spend real time focusing on survivors, rather than just paying them lip service. Hence, we have two shows this week focusing on their stories.

In today’s episode, Mark Lobel talks to Asian-American artist Rina Oh about how she was groomed and drawn into Epstein’s network - and how he used grooming tactics to manipulate countless young women. She is writing a book in which she will soon ‘reveal all’ about the man she describes as a “raging paedophile”. Rina is incredibly brave to be speaking out and we applaud her and are honoured to be platforming her.

To finish the episode, as Mark and Rina Order the Disorder, Rina talks about what must happen next for justice to be done for hundreds of victims – specifically she describes how law enforcement should go after what’s left of his network. 

Donate to the fund for Carolyn Andriano’s memorial: https://www.gofundme.com/f/carolyn-andriano-memorial 

To immediately get part two of this series with Lisa Bloom – an attorney who represents several Epstein victims, join the Mega Orderers Club now: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Subscribe to Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on Rina and her work visit: http://rinaohepsteinfiles.com

For more on the US Virgin Island Mental Health Fund, read: https://www.usvimentalhealthfund.com/

Read: Bondi’s Incompetence Is the Latest Insult for Epstein’s Victims: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/14/opinion/bondi-epstein-justice.html

Read: Musk Offers To Pay Defense Fees Of Anyone Who ‘Speaks The Truth’ About Epstein And Is Sued: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2026/02/09/musk-offers-to-pay-defense-fees-of-anyone-who-speaks-the-truth-about-epstein-and-is-sued/

If you value this kind of content and want early release episodes, pls join the Mega Orderers Club: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch 

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This week, Jason and Jane look at the ongoing fallout from the Epstein files on British high politics and why we need more transparent and more courageous leaders. Plus: the duo investigate the rise of women in leadership roles within the UN, examine upcoming US negotiations on both Russia/Ukraine and Iran/Nuclear, present Jason’s observations about the depoliticisation of Trump’s America, and answer questions from members of our Mega Orderers Club. Finally, as they Order the Disorder, they imagine a world with new institutions that could actually track what diplomats (current and former) do with state secrets and their privileged access to power.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events (and the chance to ask your questions), visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Watch Jason discuss “Do the Epstein files spell the end for Sir Keir Starmer?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMgrUgOjGbk 

Statement from the Arms Control Association on New START and what the U.S. should do now: https://www.armscontrol.org/pressroom/2026-02/statement-end-new-start-requires-more-coherent-approach-trump-administration 

Global Women Leaders’ Voices report on women in multilateralism: https://www.gwlvoices.org/resources/wim-26 

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As we settle in to 2026, it feels like we are stuck in a permanent state of Disorder:  Trump’s power grabs around the world, the timidity of Starmerism, and the lack of future-focused collective solutions to the world’s most pressing issues like AI regulation and climate. But… could another world be possible? Could something like mega-ordering spread throughout the world? If so, how do we get there?

This week, in association with the New Books Network, Jason is joined by Sir Geoff Mulgan. Sir Geoff is one of the world’s leading thinkers on social change, innovation, and the future of democracy. He’s the founder of Demos, former head of the UK Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit, and the founding CEO of Nesta, the UK’s innovation agency. His latest book, ‘Another World Is Possible: How to Reignite Social and Political Imagination’ (Hurst), is a sweeping and provocative examination of how we might redesign our political and economic systems to meet the crises of the 21st century — and why doing so is both necessary and achievable.

Jason and Geoff discuss why our leaders need to spend more time on long term thinking, and how ‘collective intelligence’ can help us address the world’s most pressing global challenges. They discuss how bland centrists like Starmer are actually quite unrealistic in their realism. Plus: why we must regain trust in experts, the need for more engineers and scientists in leadership positions, and the role religion could play in bringing about Mega Ordering. And as they Order the Disorder, Mulgan explains why a public ‘Right to Truth’ is key to saving democracy.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Get Geoff’s book, ‘Another World Is Possible: How to Reignite Social and Political Imagination’:

 https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/another-world-is-possible 

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

Read Geoff writing on future generations: https://tial.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/TIAL-Future-Generations-Mulgan-Bennett.docx.pdf 

His pitch for rights to truth: https://www.geoffmulgan.com/blog/blog-post-title-two-p722w 

Follow Geoff’s substack: https://geoffmulgan.substack.com/publish/posts/published

Listen to George Monbiot on Disorder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ZjU5MmVjOTYtZmFhZC0xMWVmLWFiZWUtODNlZjQ0YWYwZTgz  

How Marco Rubio Went from “Little Marco” to Trump’s Foreign-Policy Enabler: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/01/19/marco-rubio-profile 

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

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In this episode of Disorder, hosted by Mark Lobel, the former head of NATO tells Disorder we should make the United Nations Secretary-General the "chairman" of the Security Council. Brazil’s former Ambassador to the United Nations says the role should be a single mandate term of six or seven years, "to retain the willingness to displease certain sources of power”.

Recorded at a special UNA-UK event, George Robertson and Ambassador Antonio Patriota reveal how Donald Trump’s disorderly approach is causing a major re-think of organisations and leadership in the world. Speaking in the same building that ushered in the United Nations General Assembly in 1946, exactly 80 years ago this month. 

The Brazilian Ambassador to the UK didn't hold back ... 

On Venezuela: 

“I feel very uncomfortable as a South American to witness an intervention that is a flagrant violation of international law.” 

On Nigel Farage joining climate talks: 

“I don’t think (he's) very eager to engage on this topic” 

On presenting the Nobel Peace Prize to Trump: 

“As a South American, I felt embarrassed by this gesture, because I don’t think it enhances anybody’s dignity to do that.” 

Plus - George Robertson tips a British politician as the next big thing ... and it’s not who you expect!

Stay news of a special live event with Disorder and the UNA-UK for mega orderers, and to join our Mega Orderers Club and come along, and get ad-free listening, early release episodes, and bonus content, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: ⁠https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch⁠ 

To join our Mega Orderers Club in honour of Greg, for ad free listening and early release episodes, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

UNA UK website www.una.org.uk

UN official article summarising the event - https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/01/1166783

Gordon Brown’s call to action for democracies to reinvigorate the international order, highlighting the Attorney General’s speech at the event - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/20/donald-trump-greenland-world-plan-leadership

Devex video interviews on Insta - https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/01/1166783

Sky News - 'Is the US attacking the UN's principles?' (Interview with the President of the General Assembly) https://news.sky.com/video/is-the-us-attacking-the-uns-principles-13495782 

The Guardian - 'Guterres warns of ‘powerful forces’ undermining ‘global cooperation.’’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/17/antonio-guterres-warns-forces-undermining-global-cooperation-un-80th-anniversary-secretary-general-multilateralism-international-law 

NPR - 'United Nations leaders bemoan global turmoil as the General Assembly turns 80.’ https://www.npr.org/2026/01/18/nx-s1-5678366/united-nations-general-assembly-80-london#:~:text=LONDON — Just over 80 years,the importance of international cooperation. 

Full speech by SG: https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1u/k1uo45t198

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This week, Jane and Jason analyse the endgame scenerios of Trump’s sabre rattling over Greenland and what the protests in Iran might lead to. They sketch opportunities for how the Europeans could step up and lead at this moment – if only they chose to. And as they Order the Disorder, Jane discusses Donald Trump's disregard for international law and how we could try to make International Law Great Again.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad-free listening, like the true Mega Orderer Greg Merriman, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club in honour of Greg, for ad free listening and early release episodes, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

How Marco Rubio Went from “Little Marco” to Trump’s Foreign-Policy Enabler: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/01/19/marco-rubio-profile 

For More on Greenland: https://x.com/ilvestoomas/status/2011593795373318648?s=46&t=Tbkgp9CYb-P2gQf2YVZ19g 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-greenland-risk-global-conflict/685616/ 

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To join our Mega Orderers Club, to get a full recording of the event including live listener questions, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To join our Mega Orderers Club, to get a full recording of the event including live listener questions, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Join Jane at her event, UNGA at 80: From 1946 to Our Future https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/unga-at-80-from-1946-to-our-future-tickets-1975305412663?aff=oddtdtcreator

For more on RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/ 

And Jonathan Eyal’s great work: https://www.rusi.org/people/eyal 

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To find out, Jason is joined this week by Matthew Ford, author of ‘War in the Smartphone Age: Conflict, Connectivity and the Crises at Our Fingertips’. Brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network, this episodes focuses on how technology, particularly smartphones and digital communication, has transformed military strategies and civilian involvement in conflicts. Jason and Matthew explore the topic looking at the case studies of: Hamas; the ongoing war in Ukraine; vulnerabilities in Britain and the West more generally; and the role of civilians in modern warfare. 

And as they Order the Disorder, they return to the oft-cited need for better information resilience and media literacy.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Join us at our live event in RUSI on January 8th: for details on the event https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-what-disorder-will-2026-bring.html 

Yet to attend the event you need to join the Mega-Orderer’s Club or the Pay For substack and RSVP through a special form available on either platform: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-podcast-live-with-jane-arthur 

Get Matthew’s book https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/war-in-the-smartphone-age/ 

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Join us at our live event in RUSI on January 8th: for details on the event https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-what-disorder-will-2026-bring.html 

Yet to attend the event you need to join the Mega-Orderer’s Club or the Pay For substack and RSVP through a special form available on either platform: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-podcast-live-with-jane-arthur 

For more on KeenOn visit: https://www.youtube.com/@KeenOnShow 

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As they Ordered the Disorder, they highlight the need for leadership and Jason returns to his desire for a collective grass roots ordering movement pushing for towards a better future, and why human connection will help us find Order in the new year. The show closes with some beautiful cantorial music giving us some hope for the New Year, while also reflecting our sorrow over what has happened in Sydney.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link (and get access to our January 8th event): https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Join us at our live event in RUSI on January 8th (Mega Orderer membership needed for attendance) https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-what-disorder-will-2026-bring.html 

Yet to attend the event you need to join the Mega-Orderer’s Club or the Pay For substack and RSVP through a special form available on either platform: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-podcast-live-with-jane-arthur 

To attend Jane’s UN event, visit https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/unga-at-80-from-1946-to-our-future-tickets-1975305412663?aff=oddtdtcreator 

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch 

Listen to Ep 155. Can Canada become the world’s mega orderers? With Marci Surkes https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/YzQ2ZDhjNzQtYzg4NS0xMWYwLWJhMDItMzNiNDI3MTVmMDBh 

Watch Jason on From Global War on Terror to the Global War on the Jews https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pY9KSoQDHc 

The show features our looking ahead to the New Year with the Hebrew song, ‘Ba Shana HaBa’ah’ song by Yoav Oved. You can check out more of his operatic cantorial singing here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OolsTq5ZNNw

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A nationwide celebration is underway. It’s Victory Day for Bangladesh’s 176 million people. Fifty-four years ago today -- December 16th, 1971 -- the former state of East Pakistan became the modern, independent nation of Bangladesh.

But few people are pleased with the trajectory Bangladesh is currently on. What’s been happening this past 15 months has shaken this country to its core. On August 5th, 2024 protests over government job quotas escalated into a wider anti-government movement, with a resulting violent crackdown leading to the ousting of the long-time ruler, Sheikh Hasina. She now faces the death penalty if she returns. Her whole political party, the Awami League, has been banned too.

Now the Muslim-majority state faces perhaps the most significant fork-in-the-road moment since its independence. The February 2026 election. Can the caretaker leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus pull it off? Will it be free and fair?  It is possible that stability and democracy will be restored. It is also possible that an Islamist takeover and the cancellation of Democracy will ensue.

To find out how the election could not only reshape contemporary Bangladesh’s political foundations but also South Asian stability, security cooperation and geopolitical rivalries, Disorder co-host Mark Lobel is joined by three experts on the ground in the country. 1- Debapriya Bhattacharya-- Economist, public policy analyst and Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Dhaka, Aasha Mehreen Amin -- joint editor at The Daily Star, and Iftekharuz Zaman -- Executive Director of Transparency International Bangladesh.

Although we don’t hear about it much in the Western press, investors and policymakers the world over certainly have their eyes peeled on South Asia’s second largest economy and what it decides to do next. We hope you the Orderers enjoy this exclusive journalistic content. 

If you like more deepdives like this and appreciate the effort we are putting in please:

PLEASE join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

[Join the pay for substack for the 8 Jan event]

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

You can get in touch with Mark, to host or speak at your event here: https://www.mark-lobel.com/getintouch 

Aasha's 'No Strings Attached' column: https://www.thedailystar.net/author/aasha-mehreen-amin 

National Survey of Bangladesh: https://www.iri.org/resources/national-survey-of-bangladesh-september-october-2025/ 

Citizen's Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh: https://bdplatform4sdgs.net/ 

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Join us at our live event in RUSI on January 8th https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-what-disorder-will-2026-bring.html (You need to join RUSI or the Mega Orderers Club or Paid for Substack to attend)

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To find out the answers to these questions and more, Jane - who has analysed and tracked the Iran file for two decades - quizzes an expert, author and friend, Dalia Dassa Kaye, whose new book ‘Enduring Hostility’ explores the history of U.S. policy towards Iran based on interviews with the most important DC insiders from rcent U.S. administrations.

Not many people realise it, but virtually every U.S. administration since Carter has tried diplomacy with Iran. They’ve also always tried various forms of pressure - especially sanctions - and at times threats of military attack. Why, then, do the U.S. and Iran keep circling around the negotiating table despite seeing each other as archenemies?

What happened to the JCPOA and will there be another nuclear deal? Or are we more likely to see another round of war between Iran and Israel?

Jane and Dalia explain it all here just before they both head to Qatar for a bunch of serious discussions about mediation efforts.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

Dalia Dassa Kaye - Enduring Hostility - https://www.sup.org/books/politics/enduring-hostility 

Dalia’s op-ed in the Economist - https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/11/28/dont-count-on-a-reset-in-us-iran-relations-writes-dalia-dassa-kaye 

And now to close out, an oldie but a goodie - Jane’s analysis for Chatham House when the JCPOA was signed, looking at the deal’s vulnerabilities and arguing a parallel diplomatic track was needed to address the regional tensions between Iran and its neighbours - https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/field/field_document/20150703IranGCCKinninmont.pdf 

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To find out, Jason is joined by Philip Coggan, award winning journalist and author of The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means For the World. This ep is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network. Philip and Jason explore how major historical lessons in economics (concerning specialization, efficiency, growth, the advantages of trade deficits, etc.) can all be unpacked from the ongoing economic consequences of Trump's tariffs. 

They draw upon the historical parallels of Trump's actions to try to understand the true motivations behind Trump’s tarriffs.  Is it all about misunderstanding the meaning of trade deficits, or all about manufacturing, or is it all about centralisation of power and political theatre. Listen to find out… Plus: the duo spoke right after the UK budget announcement and they tried to unpack the domestic implications of the recent UK budget and whether any of Reeve’s economic policies can actually Order the Disorder.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network visit: https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

Get Philip’s book The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump - https://profilebooks.com/work/the-economic-consequences-of-mr-trump/ 

Cockup instead of Conspiracy: How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/nov/26/how-rachel-reeves-budget-was-leaked-40-minutes-early 

Budget 2025: Key points at a glance-- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4w44w42j5o 

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Plus: the challenges Canada faces in diversifying its economy, and the implications of its historical reliance on the U.S.. And as they Order the Disorder, they focus on Canada's future role in global politics and the importance of unity within the country.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

For more on Marci and her work visit https://www.compassrosegroup.org/en/marci-surkes 

Listen to our previous episode with Marci: https://open.spotify.com/episode/50T7tW7IXc0wmgHBgH8HUK 

For more on Canada listen to Front Burner https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/front-burner/id1439621628 

Watch The Ontario anti-tariff ad which led Trump to end trade talks with Canada https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWQRuRIxMBI 

Read about Trump’s new tariffs on Canada https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2ljgrm78zo 

Read Canada narrowly approves Carney's first federal budget https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8531xvy26o

Watch The Panel: What Trump means for Canada https://substack.com/@paulwells/p-151283084 

Read 'Expect to see lots of borrowing of technique, borrowing of language,’ from U.S. progressives from Marci https://www.compassrosegroup.org/en/updates/2024/8/26/expect-to-see-lots-of-borrowing-of-technique-borrowing-of-language-from-us-progressives 

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We discuss the need for ‘equality’ among parties in negotiations, the role of the UK and international community in peace efforts, and what recognition of Palestinian statehood actually means for peace. Plus: changes in Israeli and Diasporic Jewish public opinion regarding a two-state solution, and as they Order the Disorder, Amb. Baruch puts forward a vision for a peaceful future in the Middle East and the role of international powers in achieving it. Jason pushes back on this vision of an Israel-Palestinian condominium as overly optimistic, but hopefully it makes for a great listen.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

NGO MONITOR—SHRINKING SPACE:   http://policyworkinggroup.org.il/ 

Listen to World Report https://open.spotify.com/show/5qaYz2SRxlPUszXZQWNl1U?utm_source=chatgpt.com 

For more on Ilan Baruch’s work: https://www.pascalboniface.com/2024/09/11/interview-two-israeli-diplomats-denounce-netanyahus-gaza-policy/ 

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To find out, Jason is joined again by returning cohost, Mark Lobel. They discuss the BBC’s next moves and whether Trump’s lawsuit actually has any merit. Plus: they dissect a tumultuous week for Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeve’s budgetary reversals, Wes Streeting’s ‘leadership challenge’ and what this all means for actuality of centrist leadership. And as they look to Order the Disorder, they discuss the issue of wealth inequality as today’s greatest global challenge, and why radical transparency and generosity might be what’s needed to fix it.

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Pls Join the Mega Orderers Club for ad-free listening and early release of the episodes, via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

For more on Mark Lobel visit https://www.mark-lobel.com/ 

Read Yuval Noah Harari: Only generosity can secure peace between Israelis and Palestinians https://www.ft.com/content/04078017-18b1-4c63-8521-198c69684255 

Read Zach Polanski The right can mock my teeth all it wants – it shows the Greens have struck a nerve https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/10/green-party-zack-polanski-struck-nerve-politics 

Read Upper East Side Moms Are Melting Down Over Mamdani - New York Magazine https://www.thecut.com/article/moms-of-the-upper-east-side-facebook-meltdown-mamdani.html 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To join our Mega Orderers Club, and get ad free listening, early episode releases, bonus content and exclusive access to live events, visit https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

For more on Democracy works visit: https://democracyworks.simplecast.com/ 

To listen to Jason on yet another podcast, try his appearance on Practical Stoicism talking about the completely different topic of backgammon and the importance of being disciplined and self aware: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/practical-stoicism/id1603004118?i=1000734643776

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In institutional design, the US justice system is more independent than its European counterparts. Even though the US President selects his Attorney General, a corrupt President can be dealt with not only via impeachment, but in Principal through independent special counsels pursing justice while avoiding potential conflicts of interest. And yet… from Hillary’s emails to Trump’s possible collusion with Russia and promotion of an insurrection, the Special Prosecutor system hasn't worked as it should. And now despite all those checks and balances, we have a weaponized justice, with a more political DOJ under Pam Bondi being used to pursue revenge against Trump’s enemies. 

How did we get to here? Why can’t the American system – designed with the most checks and balances -- work to hold power to account?

To find out, Jason is joined this week by Elie Honig, senior legal analyst for CNN and author of When You Come at the King: Inside DOJ's Pursuit of the President, from Nixon to Trump. This episode is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network. They discuss the legal details of Watergate, Hillary Clinton’s emailgate, the Mueller investigation, and Jan 6. As they order the disorder, Elie and Jason consider whether and how the system can be reformed, and the importance of courage and integrity within the justice system.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: ⁠https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/⁠

For more on our New Books Network partnership visit ⁠https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder⁠ 

Buy When You Come at the King: Inside DOJ's Pursuit of the President, from Nixon to Trump by Elie Honig ⁠https://www.amazon.co.uk/When-You-Come-King-President/dp/0063447363⁠ 

Read Why The Supreme Court Might Strike Down Trumps Tariffs ⁠https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-the-supreme-court-might-strike-down-trumps-tariffs.html⁠

Read The John Bolton Indictment Is Different ⁠https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/the-john-bolton-indictment-is-different/ar-AA1OESRh?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1⁠

Watch Elie Honig on the Lincoln Project ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSEytVs2Er4⁠ 

Read a review of Elie’s book at ⁠https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/elie-honig/when-you-come-at-the-king/⁠ 

Another take on Elie’s book ⁠https://historynerdsunited.com/2025/09/when-you-come-at-the-king-by-elie-honig-book-review/⁠ 

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In this listener questions episode, Jason and Jane discuss a range of issues from Israel-Gaza, to football hooliganism, to Kaliningrad (the Russian exclave), to the possibility of mega ordering institutions. They start by analysing the strategic importance of an alliance with Israel to the US by dissecting the Realist and Neo-conservative cases. Jane and Jason revisit the controversy of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans being banned from Birmingham by delving into the intersection of football and politics and the difference of fan culture in the US and UK. After the break, Jane and Jason tackle the questions: do sanctions on Russia go far enough? Could there be sanctions against the Kaliningrad exclave? Are we closer to nuclear war with Russia since the drone strikes? Why are we normalising Trump’s White House renovations? And as they Order the Disorder: we return as always to the need for a mega ordering club of democracies, how we decide on a common set of European values, and if the Ave Europe charity is on the right track.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/

Read the Ave Europa Charter: https://ave-europa.eu/charter/ 

Mearsheimer on ‘The Israel Lobby's Awesome Power’ https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-israel-lobbys-awesome-power

And push back against his thoughts: https://www.israelfactcheck.com/debunking-mearsheimer-walt-s-theories-on-israel-influence 

Some background on Kaliningrad: https://besacenter.org/kaliningrad-russias-exclave-in-europe/ 

Other perspectives on the rights of football fans and Maccabi hooliganism: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/21/police-intelligence-on-extreme-maccabi-fans-with-history-of-violence-led-to-villa-park-ban

Fighting for the rights of football fans

How a Cambridge researcher fought for the rights of football fans and won: https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/footballact2012 

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As Trump parades across the Middle East collecting adulation for his ‘eternal peace’ deal, Jane and Jason break down the realities and explain that what was achieved was merely a hostage release, prisoner swap, and ceasefire. With Phase 2 looming and infighting already starting in Gaza, they look at the role of the various international actors (like Qatar, Egypt, UK, US) in possibly creating technocratic governance of Gaza. Plus: Is now the time for an Iran peace deal and as the UN Charter turns 80, what might the future of the organisation be?

Finally, as they Order the Disorder, they discuss the need for progressive politicians to become better communicators.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

For an explainer on Iran latest, read Gaza Ceasefire Could Give Iran Another Chance at Negotiations with the US - https://www.stimson.org/2025/gaza-ceasefire-could-give-iran-another-chance-at-negotiations-with-the-us/ 

Watch Jane discussing what’s next for Middle East - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alTViSc3FJk 

Read UN says countries are willing to help fund Gaza's $70 bln reconstruction https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-says-states-willing-fund-gazas-70-bln-rebuild-2025-10-14/ 

Read Why Was the President of FIFA at the Gaza Summit? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/world/middleeast/gianni-infantino-fifa-trump.html 

Read What Gaza has been like since the ceasefire in Vox - https://apple.news/Ao4Xzg8yKT5-aVo-nm8769A 

Read BBC Expert Says The Israel-Palestine Conflict 'Will Continue' Despite Trump's Peace Plan - https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bbc-expert-says-the-israel-palestine-conflict-will-continue-despite-trumps-peace-plan_uk_68eb5d49e4b0abf20b6b0850?ncid=APPLENEWS00001  

Watch Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa interview with CBC https://share.google/Eik7y67VmISQHiegN 

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To discuss from a Palestinian perspective the fallout of October 7th, two years of the Gaza War, and the suffering of the Palestinians from occupation, displacement, cantonization, and bombardments, Jason is joined by Sam Bahour, a Palestinian-American entrepreneur based in Ramallah. There is much said in this episode that Jason does not agree with but rather than constantly arguing with the guest, Jason is committed to presenting different points of view and tried to err on the side of letting Sam speak so the listener can make up their own mind, especially when contrasting the narrative with the episode with Phil Rosenberg from last week.

Sam and Jason discuss the implications of the recently announced and implemented Trump’s ‘Eternal Peace’ which is really just a Gaza ceasefire in exchange for Israeli hostage releases, the realities of life in the West Bank under Israeli occupation, the economic challenges of reconstruction of Gaza and standing up Palestinian institutions, and the role of the international community states in those state building and reconstruction efforts. Jason and Sam disagree agreeably about the role of the international community and technocratic governments in Palestine and beyond, while Bahour emphasizes the need for Palestinian self-determination and leadership. 

And as Sam Orders the Disorder, he highlights how changing dynamics in U.S. support for Israel and Palestine could result in a different dynamic in the Middle East. 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/ 

For more of Sam’s writing visit https://epalestine.ps/sambahour/ 

To Check out our previous episode Commemorating October 7th Part 1: Phil Rosenberg, President of the Board of Deputies of British Jews click here: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep-146-commemorating-october-7th-part-1-phil-rosenberg/id1706818264?i=1000730501569 

Read Jason's piece Internationalize the Solution for Gaza and Iran https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/internationalize-the-solution-for

Read Gazans Are Finished With Hamas https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gazans-are-finished-with-hamas-commander-popular-forces-5d9a6345

Israel is backing a militia known for looting aid in Gaza https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/06/09/israel-is-backing-a-militia-known-for-looting-aid-in-gaza_6742148_4.html

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This timely episode was recorded before the horrors of the Manchester Yom Kippur Synagogue terrorist attack of October 2nd and the potential optimism of the Trump deal to end the Gaza War which is currently in limbo. This episode deals extensively with issues of antisemitism, humanitarian suffering in Gaza, and the potentialities of Middle East peace. As we mark 2 years since the horrific October 7th massacre in Israel -- and the disastrous regional wars and tragic humanitarian crisis in Gaza that have ensued in its wake-- we here at Disorder are producing a two-episode series dealing with the legacy of that fateful day: one from a British-Jewish perspective and one from a Palestinian-American perspective. 

To start with, we’re joined by Phil Rosenberg, President of The Board of Deputies of British Jews. Phil is the highest-ranking communal official representing the Jewish community to the UK government and media. Jason and Phil discuss the ongoing ramifications of the attacks on Jewish life in the UK, the rise of global antisemitism, and the role played by misinformation and conspiracy theories in manipulating public perception of Jews. Plus: is the UK's position on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict a help or a hinderance? And did the mass of Western states recognising a Palestinian state actually move the needle towards a two-state solution or has it just further entrenched the conflict?

Join us next week to hear our conversation with Sam Bahour, who will give the perspective from Ramallah. 

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm?sc_promo=DISORDER10

Read a report from Phil’s organisation on the Response to 7th October – how the UK Jewish community was impacted.

https://www.jpr.org.uk/reports/year-after-october-7-british-jewish-views-israel-antisemitism-and-jewish-life 

For more on Trump’s Gaza peace initiative: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/world/middleeast/trump-netanyahu-gaza-deal.html 

For more on The Board of Deputies of British Jews work to tackle antisemitism visit https://bod.org.uk/bod-news/commission-on-antisemitism/ 

For a legal and structural argument for why recognition of a Palestinian State will  not help make piece listen to this Call Me Back episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000727804529 

Listen to our previous episode with Joseph Uscinski on Conspiracy Theories and their hidden logic: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi 

Listen to our previous episode on extremism and Conspiracy Theories with Julia Ebner: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/MjJkNjlmZDItMDExZi0xMWYwLTg4MWUtZGZjZDhiYzFhNTEz

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When Trump stormed into UNGA last week, complained about escalators and tele prompters, and swung back out… the UN was faced with some questions. How do we navigate a world through Trump’s America? And what does it mean for the very future of the UN?

To find out, and reflect on UNGA as a whole, Jane is joined by Richard Gowan, the International Crisis Group's UN expert. They discuss Trump’s speech, Netanyahu’s appearance, and who will be the next UN Secretary General when elections take place?

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm?sc_promo=DISORDER10

Read Richard’s piece ‘Ten Challenges for the UN in 2025-2026’ https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/sb13-ten-challenges-un-2025-2026 

Read Richard in Foreign Policy on America’s Infuriating and Irreplaceable Role at the U.N. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/19/trump-washington-united-nations-unga-reform/ 

Read Calls grow for first female UN chief in 80 years https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/calls-grow-first-female-un-chief-80-years-2025-09-26/ 

Burmese academic Thant Myint-U on the legacy of his grandfather, former SG U Thant, and the need for the UN to reclaim its role in peace and security - https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2025-09/u-thant-helped-save-world-nuclear-war-1962-who-could-do-now 

Martin Griffiths, former UN humanitarian chief, on the UN at 80, including his thought on the Black Sea grain deal that Richard referenced - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/26/un-recover-courage-palestine-ukraine-sudan 

Listen to To Save Us From Hell, Mark Goldberg's podcast about the UN, focusing here on Trump's speech - https://www.globaldispatches.org/p/your-countries-are-going-to-hell-9f5

Watch Jane’s thoughts from New York https://www.youtube.com/shorts/iBppHmWp8Cc 

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Even a small amount from you on the lowest tier will go along way for us, so thank you so much for your generosity. 

Now to today’s episode, this week, we take listener questions and announce on air our new Mega Orderers Club, how it will work, and what perks we will offer. Jason and Jane discuss the need for local government to both ‘fix the potholes’ while tackling long term issues. Plus: Is free speech dead in America? Are we doing enough on climate change? And what role will the UK’s Green Party’s new leader Zack Polanski play in fighting Farage’s Neo-populism?

And as they try to end on a positive note – Jane feels inspired by her conversations about multilateralism, while Jason sees American culture as possessing reserves of strength and social cohesion, if only those can be drawn on for Order, tolerance, and acceptance.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Join the Mega Orderers Club via this link: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm?sc_promo=DISORDER10 

And For a legal and structural argument for why recognition of a Palestinian State will  not help make piece listen to this Call Me Back episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000727804529 

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on the Politics Guys visit - https://politicsguys.com/ 

Listen to their episode Is There Really Democracy in America? - https://politicsguys.com/is-there-really-democracy-in-america/ 

Hear Jason on the podcast - https://politicsguys.com/populism-power-and-the-enduring-global-disorder/ 

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Trump has chaotically imposed tariffs on the global economy-- replete with arbitrary numbers, 90-day pauses, and then different outcomes for similar countries. Many predicted this type of chaotic policymaking would tank the US stock markets, make the bond markets panic, and trigger a worldwide recession. Jason at least assumed UVXY would spike as volatility would soar. Yet US markets are hitting record highs. Even foreigners are still willing to buy US equities, albeit while hedging their dollar risk. What is going on here? Why do the Markets seem to love Trump? Why are markets addicted to low interest rates and cheap money? Why do markets want less regulation even though it can lead to crashes? Why don’t the markets react with Trump threatens Powell, Lisa Cook, and Fed Independence?

To find out, Jason is joined this week by Katie Martin, the Markets columnist at the Financial Times and host of the Unhedged Podcast. They discuss how Europe should respond to Trump’s craziness, why US Big tech stocks (and the data centre construction fad) are keeping the market afloat, the implications of big money continuously ploughing into AI without knowing if AI will really be profitable, and the shifting focus from public to private markets. Plus: Gilts vs Treasuries, the UK’s fiscal woes, and whether the Euro could replace the dollar as the world’s most important reserve currency. And to Order the Disorder, they discuss the formation of a new global body to tackle inequality globally.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Read Investors are frogs in a Trumpian pot by Katie https://on.ft.com/3K67eCm 

Read Time to give the euro a glow-up by Katie https://on.ft.com/4mhfWuP 

Read The bond doom-mongers have got at least one thing right https://on.ft.com/41TpXqT 

Check out Katie’s Unhedged podcast: https://www.ft.com/unhedged-podcast 

Watch How has Trump changed the global economy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwKt43ruWCo

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Rg9YCYehqQc

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Last week, Israel attacked Hamas leaders in Qatar. Did they hit them? Did they miss? Did Mossad advise against the IDF’s plan? There’s a lot of Disorder out there.

To discuss these issues as well as: his recent family vacation road trip across France, the politics of theme parks, how AI will transform advertising, and how Trump actually exudes a unique form of charisma  in person, Jason is joined by a new Mega Ordererer, Mark Lobel -- a BBC journalist and TV anchor with two decades experience covering business, technology, the Middle East, and more. 

In their free-flowing conversation, they discuss the implications of Trump's upcoming UK visit, Israel’s risky move in Qatar, how AI will completely change political communication, and the debt crisis in France.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on Mark’s Mega-Ordering Background: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/profiles/4t9w5sRNMnyfdT77k0Ym4v7/mark-lobel

and https://www.mark-lobel.com/bio 

For more on the Israeli attack on Qatar and how Mossad was against the IDF’s plan: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000725930815

For more on nationalist re-enactment theme parks in France: https://www.puydufou.com/france/en/must-see-france 

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Brits do generally see their country as one that can play a positive role in the world. But the recent years have lost that consensus with rival sloans: from Brexit and “Global Britain”, to the short-lived “tilt to the Indo-Pacific”, then the “NATO-first” approach of the strategic defence review. In short, recent British policy has been somewhat confused by the succession of different governments and foreign secretaries in the past few years. And as results British citizens do not feel current policy reflects their priorities.

Delving into the topic, the panel talk about opportunities for the U.K. to play a leading role in areas that it’s good at: rule of law, international finance and public health. These are the domains where there can be cross-party support rooted in a sense of Britain’s comparative advantages. We also discuss why Ukraine has - so far - been a unifying cause for Brits, with successive prime ministers committed to supporting the country’s independence with military assistance - in stark contrast to the US. And who else can Britain work with in a “global middle-power alliance” to “change the calculations of the rule-breakers that are currently upending the international order” (per the report), while also trying to persuade the US not to abandon that order wholesale? In one of the punchier moments of debate, Jason questions why migration is dominating the headlines and why no one right now in British politics seems to want to make the positive case for attracting the best talent from around the world.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links: 

Britain rules out backing for global defence bank - Reuters https://apple.news/AjpCOumOZTFaB9wBe7VJH1w 

Hassan Damluji, Michael Stephens and Anna Hope  - Rules Britannia: How a foreign policy guided by fair play can keep Britain safe and promote economic growth https://globalnation.world/publications/rules-britannia-how-a-foreign-policy-guided-by-fair-play-can-promote-economic-growth-and-keep-britain-safe/ 

Steve Bloomfield, International Editor of The Observer, Since when did the Foreign Office become a demotion? https://observer.co.uk/news/politics/article/since-when-did-the-foreign-office-become-a-demotio 

Was this a missed opportunity for Britain to lead on financing defence for democratic allies? Britain rules out backing global defence bank -

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/britain-rules-out-backing-global-defence-bank-2025-09-04/ 

Background on today’s angry debate about migration in Britain: The “Boriswave” – how the Conservative government that was elected to “get Brexit done” adopted policies that massively boosted migration (from outside the EU) - https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2025/02/the-boriswave-problem 

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Amidst this backdrop, we return to our investigation of Bangladesh as a microcosm of the Global Enduring Disorder. There, a year ago Sheikha Hasina was removed by student protests. Since then the Nobel Laurate Mohammad Younis has been presiding over a caretaker government, which has pledged it will hold elections in February 2026.

On today’s pod, we will explore how the IG (interim government) in Bangladesh has essentially done all the same things that it accused the previous government of doing- locking up journalists, being repressive, taking over the economy, favouring cronies, and shying away from democratic reforms. They have said the election will be Feb but many analysts we spoke to don’t believe them. We at the Disorder pod think it is equally our role to try to hold Bangladeshi politicians to account to honour their laws and commitments, just as we would do with Trump when he violates the constitution or tries to tamper with Federal Reserve Independence.  Being tough on developing world democracies is our sign of respect for them.

To help guide the mega orderers on this journey, Jason is joined by Taufiq Rahim. He is the author of Trump 2.5: A Primer and Middle East in Crisis & Conflict: A Primer, and he publishes longform essays on Geopolitico. Taufiq is a Senior Fellow for the Future Security Program at New America and a Research Fellow at the Mohammed bin Rashid School of Government.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links: 

Our previous episode on Bangladesh https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ZTJiYmNmYmEtN2IzOC0xMWVmLTkxNmMtMGI4YjI4NjI4ZThm?view=apps&sort=popularity 

Trump's Kashmir Conundrum - National Review https://apple.news/A1njysA98SYeo0r2UvWiqlw 

The China-Pakistan-India tussle over Bangladesh (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/bangladesh-may-have-ended-its-india-china-tightrope-game-but-it-must-continue-to-tread-carefully/)

The evolution of the US-India strategic partnership (https://www.cfr.org/article/will-trumps-india-tariffs-affect-critical-us-partnership) & https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/indias-diplomacy-dual-alignments-russia-and-us

For more on https://taufiqrahim.com/

Trump 2.5: A Primer -- https://trumpprimer.com/

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This week, Jane and Jason discuss the little-known field of ‘disaster risk’. They look at why we need global coordination for it to work properly, what treaties, and international bodies govern international disaster response, and what successful multilateral efforts in the space of ‘disaster risk’ can teach us about how to Order the Disorder in other domains.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

For more on the ASRA Conference organisers - https://www.asranetwork.org/

How to save the world report co-authored by Jane https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/report/how-to-save-the-world-influencing-policy-on-the-biggest-risks-to-humanity/

Florian Jehn on what helps societies and civilisations avoid major crises or collapse - https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/some-factors-that-could-help-societies

Lara Mani’s charity, the Global Volcanic Risk Alliance - https://www.globalvolcanoriskalliance.com/

Read Jason’s article on An Orderly World Championships of Backgammon: https://ukbgf.com/an-orderly-world-championships-of-backgammon/ 

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

And Join the paid substack to hear Jason’s story about Israelis behaving badly in Monaco and how it is a metaphor for their isolation globally and the resentment that that breeds.

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Listen to Jason on BBC Radio Five Live (from 45:40) https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002gzxy 

Read The Limits of Recognition - The Atlantic https://apple.news/AX2K3dnwnQBy2oE9J40g7Eg 

The New York declaration of the recent UN conference on a two-state solution in Israel Palestine https://press.un.org/en/2025/pal2250.doc.htm 

Read Russia and Ukraine must seek a proper framework for talks, says Juan Manuel Santos https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/07/25/russia-and-ukraine-must-seek-a-proper-framework-for-talks-says-juan-manuel-santos 

Read How to End the Russia-Ukraine War by Thomas Graham https://www.cfr.org/article/how-end-russia-ukraine-war 

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I argued that while Trump may be achieving tactical wins through short-term disruptions—from ending the Iran-Israel conflict to forcing favorable trade negotiations—this approach fundamentally undermines the strategic international coordination needed to address existential challenges like AI regulation, climate change, and systemic economic and military competition with China. Without coherent global governance structures, I predict, we're sleepwalking into a long-term disordered world where private tech giants wield more power than governments themselves. Trump’s high summer of disorder could degenerate into an apocalyptic winter of our collective discontent.

As we Ordered the Disorder, I advocated for a Missing "NATO for AI" arguing that we desperately need international coordination structures to govern AI development, data storage, and energy infrastructure. Without treaty-based cooperation among democracies, we're ceding control to either authoritarian regimes or unaccountable private companies.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Listen to Keen On America especially about how AI and Big Tech is reshaping today’s geopolitical fault lines: https://podcasts.apple.com/sa/podcast/ai-is-too-busy-to-take-your-job-the-electrifying/id1710656849?i=1000719075185 

Explore the Keen On Substack: https://substack.com/@keenon? 

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In this episode, Arthur Snell is joined by Matthew Savill, the Director of Military Sciences at RUSI. They focus on developments and trends in contemporary conflict and investigate new trends in the use of force in the mid-21st Century. The duo discuss Ukraine's rapid innovation in drone technology, the challenges NATO faces in integrating the newer forms of air power with its ground forces, Britain’s lack of preparedness at the Corp level, and the shifting dynamics of US commitment to NATO. 

And as they Order the Disorder, Matthew expresses a need for European countries to enhance their military capabilities and boost overall readiness – and the need to spend large amounts of money to achieve those objectives. This episode is truly a master class in the dynamics of modern warfare that many consumers of news will miss beyond the headlines.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

For more on our RUSI partnership visit: https://www.rusi.org/podcast-series/disorder-podcast 

Watch Is Trump losing MAGA over Epstein? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEiX7chStSY 

Watch Jason Pack play in the Final of the World Championship of Speedgammon:  https://youtu.be/Z8Nk_5V8RXM?si=NTUhPU-Z_ghhakne

Follow Arthur’s Behind the Lines Pod: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656 

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As part of our partnership with the New Books Network, Jason is joined this week by former MI-6 agent, Charles Beaumont. Charles is the pseudonym author of the bestselling spy thriller, ‘A Spy at War.’ He and Jason discuss the current scope of influence operations in the context of the Ukraine War. They discuss how Kyiv was a nest of spies at the start of that War and why the Russian intelligence agents got it all wrong when they thought that Kyiv was theirs for that taking. They also delve into the historical and contemporary roles of intelligence in shaping the politics of the post-Soviet space, the effectiveness of Western intelligence agencies, and the moral complexities of espionage. And as they Order the Disorder – they discuss the need for stronger soft power by Britain, and the idea for the UN to develop its own intelligence agency.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Buy A Spy at War - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Spy-War-Oxford-Ring-espionage/dp/1804364800 

Read Jason’s review of A Spy at War - https://www.thecipherbrief.com/book-review/when-espionage-meets-tiktok 

New Books Network - https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder

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Jason and Jane discuss why the Epstein scandal WILL genuinely hurt Trump with his conspiracy loving base, the complexities of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent, the multilateralism of any new Iran nuclear deal, the implications of blowback from Trump's conspiratorial scaremongering, and if the Russians have the ability to escalate the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or if they are ‘maxed out’. 

Plus we handle eloquent verbiage from very verbose mega-orderers’ questions: we revisit why neopopulists like Trump are thin skinned and can be hoist on the petards of the own rhetoric, cognitive biases affecting political decision-making, the role of psychology in diplomacy, the future of US-Canada relations and the tragic humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As Jane and Jason Order the Disorder, as always, they end emphasizing the need for innovative win-win solutions to these multifaceted challenges. As always pls write us at Disordershow@gmail.com and pls rate and review the pod giving us 5 stars... Thanks

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack for exclusive question from Suzette about the Druze in Syria and the historic resonances of Israel’s interventions on behalf of the Druze - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Jason on the Epstein Scandal and why it exposes Trump’s hypocrisy to his own supporters in ways that his other nefarious actions do not: https://metro.co.uk/2025/07/24/donald-trumps-epstein-files-problem-wont-go-away-will-next-23741815/ 

Good background on the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent - https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/uks-nuclear-deterrent-relies-us-support-there-are-no-other-easy-alternatives 

Letter to the Prime Minister calls for the UK to recognise Palestinian statehood - https://una.org.uk/letter-prime-minister-calls-uk-recognise-palestinian-statehood-4 

Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e 

Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/ 

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In this conversation, Jason Pack is joined by Marc Olsen – fellow Backgammon Grandmaster, former professional footballer, and the CEO and Founder of Backgammon Galaxy. Together they explore the multifaceted world of Backgammon. They unpack how it is a metaphor for life, decision-making, and the balance between order and disorder. 

They discuss Marc's journey from professional football to becoming the CEO of Backgammon Galaxy, the conformism of Scandinavian society, and how a rebellious nature led Marc to discover Austrian school economics. Plus: the emotional aspects of learning through games, the relevance of game theory in the Enduring Disorder, and the unique features of Backgammon that make it a rich learning experience. And as they Order they Disorder – how Backgammon can foster empathy and social skills, and the potential of Backgammon as a tool for cross-cultural connection, especially in the Middle Eastern region.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

For more on Backgammon Galaxy visit - https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/ 

To watch the 2024 World Backgammon Championship Final commentated by Marc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d7-ky1bROk 

For a very fun video produced by Marc and featuring Jason about the World Backgammon Championship: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TebkgCNS7OI 

For Marc on the Gentleman Scofflaw podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-gentleman-scofflaw-podcast/id1216891117?i=1000650103880 

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In this episode, Jane and Jason discuss the intricacies and absurdities of Jason’s experience taking the Life in the UK test. Jason quizzes Jane on what he was made to learn about the supposed essentials of British life, with questions such as: what is a Welsh cake made from? Who won against the Vikings? And ‘what many of crosses compose the Union Flag? [sic]’ 

And on a serious note, they discuss the very special intellectual contribution of Scots to global civilization and –as they Order the Disorder – they talk about whether Britain can be a convening power – and a genuine Mega Orderer in the mid 21st century world.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Recipe for Welsh cakes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/welsh_cakes_16706 

Can YOU pass a UK citizenship test? Brits joke they 'better pack their bags' after struggling to answer the general knowledge questions:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-14849235/Can-YOU-pass-UK-citizenship-test-Brits-joke-better-pack-bags-struggling-answer-general-knowledge-questions.html 

More than half of the population are unable to pass the UK citizenship test - but how well would YOU do?  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13584185/more-than-half-of-the-population-are-unable-to-pass-the-uk-citizenship-test-but-how-well-would-you-do.html 

Wha’s like us? Damn few’ and they’re A’ deid: https://www.robbiemactours.co.uk/whas-like-us-damn-few-and-theyre-a-deid/  

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To find out, Jason is joined by Stephanie Williams – Former top United Nations mediator and a senior American diplomat. Stephanie served as the Special Adviser to the Secretary General on Libya, as well as acting UN SRSG/Special Envoy to Libya. She is the author of an excellent and highly detailed new book on international diplomacy, ‘Libya Since Qaddafi: Chaos and the Search for Peace’. As with Jason’s own book, Stephanie’s is with Hurst/OUP, by far the best publishers of cutting edge books on Libya. 

The duo delve into the effectiveness of the UN and the international community in addressing global conflicts, particularly focusing on Libya. Plus they tackle: the complexities of state building, the Disordering influence of Russia on the operations of the UN, the impact of US foreign policy on Libya, and why incoherence and coordination complexities within the West makes it nearly impossible to do diplomacy anymore.

And as they Order the Disorder, Jason and Stephanie propose genuine things Steve Witkoff and others can do to formulate a more unified approach to major issues of the day.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Get Stephanie Williams’ book, Libya Since Qaddafi: Chaos and the Search for Peace - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/libya-since-qaddafi/ 

Get Jason’s book Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/libya-and-the-global-enduring-disorder/ 

Watch Why Regime Change in Iran is Impossible - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlX5_mp1JWc

Listen back to Ep4. Who is leading the disorder? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9ebdc18174d18cb019d148053a98e287 

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In this episode of Disorder, Alex Hall Hall and Arthur Snell delve into the complexities of British diplomacy over the past year – offering a grade point for each area of British foreign policy. They assess the UK's relationships with the US and EU, the implications of NATO and defense strategies, their dealings with Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia and the government's response to the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. 

To close – and Order the Disorder – the pair express the need for a clearer vision in foreign policy, greater engagement with the Global South, and a clearer moral backbone from Starmer and co.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Read ‘Keir Starmer Has Missed His Chance to Make a Bold Break With the Past on Foreign Policy’ by Alex Hall Hall: https://bylinetimes.com/2025/06/27/labour-foreign-policy-report-card/ 

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Watch Why the UK should mediate between Trump, Bibi, and the Ayatollahs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXQb1oXFBh4

Watch Why Regime Change in Iran is Impossible - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlX5_mp1JWc

Read about Georgia’s struggle for democracy and slide into authoritarianism and how it mirrors our own in the USA: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/08/i-was-not-fierce-enough-georgian-activists-brutal-confession-as-democracy-collapses/

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Read about Georgia’s struggle for democracy and slide into authoritarianism and how it mirrors our own in the USA: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/08/i-was-not-fierce-enough-georgian-activists-brutal-confession-as-democracy-collapses/

Watch Why Regime Change in Iran is Impossible - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlX5_mp1JWc

Read ‘Donald Trump’s Los Angeles Military Deployment Is an Assault on American Democracy’ - https://bylinetimes.com/2025/06/10/donald-trump-los-angeles-military-deployment-assault-on-american-democracy/ 

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Arthur and Jason rally in violent unity for Mega Ordering -- whether you advocated for Obama’s ‘Iran Deal’ or supported Trump’s tearing it to shreds, whether you love Benjamin Netanyahu or think he is an evil genius, whether you supported Trump’s Beautiful Bunker Busting against Fordow or see it as an illegal and reckless gamble, all sane centrists must now advocate for Western unity in ending the wars in Gaza and Iran. The power balance of the Middle East has been fundamentally reconfigured. It is uniquely favourable for peace. As Arthur and Jason try to Order the Disorder, they discuss if the Europeans can help get us there and why Bibi appears hellbent on spoiling his own achievements.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Iran fires missiles at US base in Qatar, Trump calls for peace: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-weighs-retaliation-against-us-strikes-nuclear-sites-2025-06-23/

Watch How The Iran Israel War Could End - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fymBJbsBDfI 

Arthur’s excellent substack Time to learn about Iran's separatist movements: https://substack.com/home/post/p-166505834 

And our Substack, Were the Iranians forewarned? why are the markets so placid? What happens if Hormuz is closed? https://natoandtheged.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/166535764?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fhome 

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To discuss this – and the intricate relationship between human psychology and the politics of negotiations – Jason was joined on June 10 by Ken Dekleva. A former senior US Dept of State physician-diplomat, CEO of Blackwood Advisory Solutions LLC, and Author of The Russian Diplomat’s Wife.

Ken and Jason discuss the role of human psychology in Trump’s negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia, and Iran. Plus: they unpack the influence of Steve Witkoff within Trump’s inner circle, the complexities of negotiations in the Middle East – and whether Team Trump is likely to get any sort of deal with powers like Iran who wish to appear uncompromising. Listening to this discussion post Israeli Attack on Iran is actually super interesting as it shows the interplay btw negotiations and war in that region.

And as they Order the Disorder, they touch on the future of U.S.-China relations in the context of AI and global power dynamics, and the need for a strategic approach to negotiations.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Get Ken’s Book, The Russian Diplomat’s Wife - https://www.thecipherbrief.com/book-review/i-spy-a-love-story

Listen to our previous episode with Ken - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/94c9f3ec23902d3f606bffb43dc39928 

Watch Does NATO Have A Future? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ouF6cVUJjY 

Read profile of Steve Witkoff https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/05/steve-witkoff-putin-russia-ukraine-diplomat/682805/ 

Read Arthur Snells Substack on the Ukraine drone attack - https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/operation-spiders-web-opening-pandoras?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web 

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In this episode, Jason Pack and Jane Kinninmont recap the weekend’s events – exploring what role the key international actors like, Trump, the G7, or India can play in providing an off ramp. Jane and Jason discuss the contradictions in Trump’s stance, the role of the G7 and India as potential mediators, and the risks associated with a full regime change in Iran. Plus: could Israel actually lose this war or its population tire of being confined to bomb shelters at night? 

Then as they Order the Disorder, Jane and Jason provide their predictions on how it all might end. They disagree agreeably on whether Israel’s war aims of destroying the enrichment facility at Fardow now need to be achieved first or if it is possible to go back to the negotiating table directly.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Sohrab Ahmari - Iran’s Devastating Hubris - https://unherd.com/2025/06/irans-devastating-hubris/ 

Analysis for Ynet by Raz Zimmt who is one of Israel’s leading experts on Iran, at INSS - https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/rj6csjsqeg 

Richard Nephew: Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program? Foreign Affairs - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/can-israel-destroy-iran-nuclear-program 

An initiative by 21 Iranian and Israeli scholars, writers and artists calling for a ceasefire -

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1DmH16adeqbmc3FO1596QVYf0PnVYfr_TDG2pc2njobk/edit 

Israel-Iran War: 10 Dead, Around 200 Injured In Iranian Strikes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKsJQW4uWxY 

Will The U.S. Deal Iran its Final Blow - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000713035101

Explainer: what we know so far in the Israel-Iran conflict - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/16/israel-iran-conflict-what-we-know-so-far-explainer  

Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/16/markets-could-be-underpricing-risks-of-israel-iran-conflict.html 

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Jason explains: it is likely because surprise and going on the offensive are more beneficial now than they have been in the last century. The duo break down the big picture implications of how the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian nuclear planes and the ongoing Israeli strikes on Iran showcase how warfare has just rapidly changed from a period which favours static and prepared defense (the Cold War and Post-Cold War periods) to a period (The Enduring Disorder) in which warfare has changed to favours creative and imaginative offense. Our current military technology and intel (esp AI) will promote more instability and favour aggression over defense. Also the key thing to keep in mind is that the Israelis had prepared this attack for years and had actually delayed it and felt they needed to get it done before it was too late.

Jason also predicts Iranians will have to asymmetrically retaliate... could be against US or Sunni Gulfi targets in the region (refineries/embassies) or Jewish/Israeli targets in Europe/the Globe. In short, we are entering a new phase of the Wars of Disorder.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

For the NYT’s coverage of kinetic developments and Overviews: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/12/world/israel-iran-us-nuclear 

For an excellent audio overview of what sites were attacked and why now-- Emergency Episode: ISRAEL AT WAR WITH IRAN - With Ronen Bergman: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000712721731

This attack has been long prepared: CIA analyst who leaked Israeli military plans gets three years in prison - The Washington Post https://apple.news/ABFn0haZjROuV8HqU_Ezsug

Why can’t we just have global order, and civility on the Tube: https://www.ft.com/content/cfb73bfe-fb42-4fd1-8b73-a125fd35e1a0?accessToken=zwAGN3LKTcoYkdPPtzv--0JP0dOLc6El_TXhoA.MEQCIG07rU5VCnoJ70yjPQ85Yr2K3YVq65g_R1jNE0NXa1dyAiBuosNEkyWwxJu499tazJwRojNLWZgq9iJmfvfLfBN5tQ&sharetype=gift&token=8dc84b36-5e95-4856-9c28-e6d884595132

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To find out, Arthur Snell speaks with Sten Rynning, professor and director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, and author of ‘NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance’. 

The duo discuss the origins and evolution of NATO, the significance of Article 5, NATO’s complex relationship with France, and the challenges faced during the Afghanistan mission. Plus: the contentious issue of NATO's eastward expansion in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, and the Alliance's role in maintaining Order in the Post-War era. And as they conclude the discussion, they explore the future of European security architecture, the importance of America's role in NATO, and – to Order the Disorder – the need for a cohesive European defense strategy.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Get Sten Rynning’s book, NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance - https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/nato-from-cold-war-to-ukraine-a-history-of-the-world-s-most-powerful-alliance-sten-rynning 

Watch The Paradox of the Anti-Semitic Boulder attack - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7zAO_5CtfE 

Listen to Arthur’s Behind The Lines Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656 

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Putin essentially told us he was going to invade Ukraine in his writings and statements. How is it then, that major leaders throughout the West could be caught off-guard and surprised when he did? There is actually a manifesto of the Russian deep state’s ideology – a collection of books called Project Russia. And yet almost no one has heard of it and it is not yet translated into English. It might be the clearest indicator of Putin’s ultimate goals.

To find out more, Jason is joined by Dave Troy, an investigative journalist covering the intersection of technology and democracy. He is currently the publisher and editor of America 2.0, a news site focused on the future of democracy. Dave also hosts the podcast Dave Troy Presents.

Jason and David discuss the continuity of Russian intelligence networks from the Soviet era to the present and the incompatibility of oligarchs and democracy. Plus: they unpack 'Project Russia'-- an ideological framework that outlines strategies for undermining Western democracy, the concept of Russian Cosmism, how these ideas intersect with Silicon Valley futurism, and are shaping the West in unexpected ways.

Finally, as they Order the Disorder, David suggests a new coalition of democracies united behind promoting Order and confronting the Deliberate Disorders.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Watch Does Germany need to embrace Nationalism? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIwVwI7mP5E

Watch Will German defence spending make Trump happy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVwZsukFK9g

Basic stuff on Project Russia and its origins:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Institute_for_Strategic_Studies

Visit America 2 News - https://america2.news

David’s Writing in the Washington Spectator https://washingtonspectator.org/category/wide-angle/

David Troy’s Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dave-troy-presents/id1610914569

Clarence Streit - Union Now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Now

https://dn790008.ca.archive.org/0/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.262135/2015.262135.Union-Now.pdf

Marlene Laruelle - Russian Nationalism:

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mono/10.4324/9780429426773/russian-nationalism-marlene-laruelle

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Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Check out our recent YouTube ‘The DC Jewish Museum shooting: The Disorderly illogic of it’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BaWtQ5bH-Q&t=2s 

Show Notes Links:

Broken Republik (English edition): https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/broken-republik-9781526679161/ 

Totally Kaputt (German edition): https://www.piper.de/buecher/totally-kaputt-isbn-978-3-492-07328-8 

Friedrich Merz is no unifier – he may deepen Germany’s divides (The Guardian): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/05/germany-unifier-chancellor-divide-friedrich-merz 

Germany’s identity crisis is 80 years in the making (Bloomberg):  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/germany-s-political-center-challenged-by-afd-russia-china-and-trump?sref=ttOZ5TVM

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Today, Jason Pack is joined by Robert Kaplan: a New York Times bestselling author whose famous books Balkan Ghosts, the Coming Anarchy, the Arabists, and The Revenge of Geography have been extremely influential in developing the concept of the Enduring Disorder. As part of our partnership with the New Books Network, we discuss his latest book, Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis.

Robert and Jason discuss the rise of populism, the impact of globalization, and the decline of institutions and leadership. Plus: the significance of constitutional monarchy and the current decline of the major global powers. And as they Order the Disorder – they look at how the failure of the neo-populists will hopefully lead to more trust in experts, and how the Weimar republic can teach us lessons.

Quote of the episode ‘The more abject the disorder, often the more extreme the tyranny to follow, and that brings us to Weimar’s last chapter’

Producer: George McDonagh

Disorder is also now part of the Evergreen Network! For more visit https://evergreenpodcasts.com/disorder

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links:

For more on the New Books Network visit https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

For more on Robert visit https://robertdkaplan.com/ 

Get Robert’s book, Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis https://www.amazon.com/Waste-Land-World-Permanent-Crisis-ebook/dp/B0D2W1B519/ 

Listen to Ep3. The Rise of the Neo-Populists https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c55bf63f1175d94d6a508eb72e8a84f 

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The trio started off tackling Sanctions: the role and use of Western Sanctions before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; how the use of sanctions has changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion, particularly on this side of the Atlantic; what does this mean for the rest of the world; and how this expansive use of sanctions is reordering global finance. 

And then moved on to the question of Markets…. and how they hold governments to account. Jason genuinely believes that the markets may be our last hope to save American democracy and that they can do what the supreme court and congress are supposed to do but cannot.  Finally, we couldn’t discuss finance and security without mentioning the Donald’s favourite word in the English language that word that he seems not to realize comes directly from Arabic, *Tariffs*.  We tried to unpack what really are tarriffs; how we know they didn’t work with Smoot Hawley; what does Donald Trump think tarriffs are.

The main take away of the discussion overall was: The failure of economic tools of coercion such as sanctions and tariffs to achieve their stated aims and the power of 'markets' to reassert order. 

It was a well attended live show with over 75 guests in RUSI’s beautiful library… pls come join us for the next one in the Autumn. And more importantly right now! Pls pls join our paid for substack to hear all the beautiful listener questions!

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work and to listen to the listener questions which are cut from this free episode - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links: 

We are trying to grow our YouTube channel. Pls check out this rather racy video and subscribe to the channel, Is Gary Lineker an Anti-Semite? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdi4vVGyCkM 

Relevant RUSI sanctions work can be found here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/projects/sanctions-and-illicit-finance-monitoring-and-analysis-network-sifmanet 

A recent article challenging the Russia maritime sanctions status quo can be found here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/tapped-out-it-time-revisit-oil-sanctions-russia 

A recent article arguing for action on the Russian central bank assets can be found here: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-central-bank-assets-ukraine/ 

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NOW TO THIS EPISODE:

In Trump’s first 100 days he has disordered almost everything: from freedom of speech on campus to global trade to affairs of war and peace. And yet, despite his threats to abandon Ukraine, and actual denials of provision of certain forms of intelligence and anti-aircraft equipment, the frontlines have largely held. In fact, it now appears that Trump lacks the ability to force Ukraine to make concessions that it doesn’t want to make, namely over Crimea. So, is there more Order and hope to be found in Ukraine than is immediately apparent?

To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Mark McNamee. Mark moved to Kyiv in October 2023 in order to start the Ukraine Business News (UBN) Network, with the mission to aid foreign investors in navigating the business environment of Ukraine and drive Ukraine’s economic recovery and reconstruction. He is also host of the podcast "History in the Making: The War in Ukraine”.

Mark and Jason discuss: the current state of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, with a particular focus on the resilience of Ukraine's economy, its innovative use of drone technology and how Ukraine could become a global leader in defense technology going forward. 

Plus: the implications of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal as truly game changing, the role of Europe in supporting Ukraine, and whether Ukraine's potential EU membership can offset lack of potential for it to become a NATO member. And as they look to Order the Disorder, Mark proposes the creation of a European Defense Tech Fund to support Ukraine's recovery and defense capabilities.

Producer: George McDonagh

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links: 

• Read this new report, just published by international human rights foundation Global Rights Compliance, exposing Russia’s disinformation campaign - https://globalrightscompliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Manufacturing-Impunity.pdf 
• Read more about the minerals deal https://www.politico.eu/article/us-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-parliament-minerals-deal-approved/ 
• Ukraine Business News - https://ubn.news
• UBN Network - https://ubn.network/ 
• Podcast History in the Making: The War in Ukraine - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/history-in-the-making-the-war-in-ukraine/id1752915858
• The Ukrainian Action Heroes Rehabilitation Program teaches Ukrainian veterans with PTSD to ski and provides psychological support:  You can support their work with Ukrainian veterans at: www.UkrainianAction.com
• Arthur Snell in conversation with Romeo Kokriatski: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ukraine-and-america-the-great-betrayal/id1704344656?i=1000706415200

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NOW TO THIS EPISODE: As Russia seeks a maximalist deal to secure its gains in Ukraine via negotiations with the Trump Administration, Putin is still trying to spread even more Disorder globally.  

Are the Russians, in fact, the top table Disorderer globally? And if so, why? What internal domestic politics are driving that Disorder? 

This week, Jason Pack is joined by Emily Ferris, a Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Studies department at RUSI, specialising in Russian domestic politics. Before joining RUSI in 2018, Emily worked at Control Risks - a London consultancy firm - as a Russian security and politics analyst, advising clients conducting business in Russia.  

Jason and Emily discuss the complexities of Russia's internal dynamics, its infrastructure conundrums, its role as a disordering power, and whether there is genuine domestic opposition within the country. 

Plus: Railways, Ports, Siberian governorships, Putin’s negotiation tactics with the Trump administration, Russia's territorial ambitions, and the ideological components driving its actions on the world stage. And as Emily and Jason close the conversation, they discuss the future of Russia post-Putin and – to Order the Disorder – Emily explains her view on importance of cultivating serious academic expertise in understanding domestic Russian affairs. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

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They discuss: is the American Dream Dead? Can you truly reinvent yourself in the US compared to Europe? And is there still hope for America going forward? 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

To get tickets to our RUSI event on 14th May visit: https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-ordering-the-global-financial-disorder.html  

Get the KeenOn podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/keen-on-america/id1448694012  

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NOW TO THIS EPISODE: Alex and Jason take listener questions that explore the chaotic political landscape shaped by Trump. Our brilliant Mega Orderers have asked about: What are Trump’s true goals and how aligned are they with Russia; where is this going to end; and how should functioning democracies respond?  

Bouncing off listeners’ ideas, Alex and Jason discuss: new forms of ‘spheres of influence’ imperialism; how Trumpian advisors, like the influencer Rasputin Laura Loomer, recycle Russian talking points;  could Canada, the UK, New Zealand and Australia work together to forge an alternative order? Is crypto just a vehicle for corruption? And how do you deal with switching from driving on one side of the road to the other? 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

Disorder Podcast Live: Ordering the Global Financial Disorder 

17:30 – 20:00 BST;  14 May 2025  

Join us for a live recording of the Disorder Podcast with Tom Keatinge, Director of the Centre for Finance and Security at RUSI IN LOND AT 61 Whitehall 

To attend become a paid for member of the Ordering the Disorder Substack here and then follow the RUSI prompts to attend: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/disorder-podcast-live-1730-may-14?triedRedirect=true 

Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast, Behind The Lines, with Jonathan Terra: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-crisis-in-the-atlantic-alliance-ep-2/id1704344656?i=1000702371956  

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To discuss the future of NATO and Five Eyes, Jason is joined by longtime friend of the Pod, Kori Schake. She has lived her entire professional life advocating for the Transatlantic Alliance and American global leadership. She started her career as NATO desk officer at DoD under GHW Bush and is now Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). 

Kori and Jason look at what might happen if America further withdraws from the world and abandons its traditional allies; what happens next in Ukraine; if Trump has a real peace plan; and how his cabinet members are acting like a megaphone rather than as genuine advisors. The duo look at scary scenerios: like what happens if the US tried to kick Canada out of the Five Eyes Intelligence sharing partnership and why Trump’s allies drive his policy choices towards the extremes. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Pls Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support us as we try to support NATO and Five Eyes - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

Hear Kori previously on Episode 6 NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964  

Read Kori’s piece in The Atlantic - https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/02/intelligence-agencies-weakened/681711/  

Check out her views on Signalgate: https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-wrong-signals-the-proper-role-of-a-defense-secretary/ 

And hear her on AEI’s ‘What the Hell’ Podcast talking US Defence policy: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/wth-a-european-supreme-allied-commander-of-nato/id1467993804?i=1000701043889  

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In this episode, hosts Alexandra Hall Hall and Jason Pack are reunited in person in DC. Jason talks of his misadventures on Capitol Hill – and relates anecdotes he has picked up about the DOGE sledgehammer, Republicans bullying Canadians, and the post-apocalyptic feeling of the place. Jason and Alex anchor the episode around the divergence btw the US and Europe on issues of: Democracy, Misinformation, Corruption and Fraud; National Security/Foreign Policy; and Economy/Tariffs. 

They delve into the way the political climate ‘feels’ in the US under Trump's administration, and the differences in judicial accountability of major political figures between the US and Europe – looking at the Le Pen case in particular. Jason expresses his mad admiration of France and Sweden. 

Plus: could civil disobedience grow in the US? Are Trump’s policies being decided by non-experts who launder Russian misinformation like Laura Loomer – a new Tiktok influencer Rasputin? And can Kier Starmer be bold enough to help us Order the Disorder? And what can Sir Keir learn from Canada’s Mark Carney who seems naturally gifted at standing up to Trump. So, ELBOWS UP, dear Mega Orderers. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Pls Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support what we do - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

Read Alex’s interview with Tom Malinowski: https://bylinetimes.com/2025/03/22/why-the-democrats-must-start-fighting-back-against-trump-and-musk/  

Read Trump’s firing of NSA chief is ‘rolling out the red carpet’ for cyber attacks: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/trump-fires-nsa-cyber-command-timothy-haugh-00273859  

Read Trump Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/trump-negotiation-tariff/682300/  

For more on Laura Loomer: Far-right activist who met Trump before he fired NSC officials: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly8y27dwgpo  

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If it is so plain for all to see, how are they getting away with it? 

To find out, Jason is joined by Frank Vogl. Formerly a foreign correspondent for The Times (UK), and then a senior official at the World Bank, Frank set up Transparency International in 1993, and then co-founded the Partnership for Transparency Fund in 1998. These two global organizations are at the forefront in the fight by civil society against corruption. Now, Frank is an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and the author of many articles and two books on global corruption – ‘The Enablers’ and ‘Waging War on Corruption’. 

In their discussion, Jason and Frank delve into the overt corruption of various decisions early in the 2nd Trump Administration, providing a focus on the role cryptocurrency plays in this corruption. Then, they look at the dismantling of anti-corruption mechanisms, and the transformation of the Republican Party into a vehicle for Trumpism and mafioso crony enrichment of Trump’s allies. Then: they analyse the complicity of Western nations in enabling corruption, and the economic implications of these actions. 

Finally, as they Order the Disorder, Frank pushes for the establishment of an international anti-corruption court, and argues that European governments can and should step up to help fight back against this corruption. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

For more on Frank’s work visit - https://www.frankvogl.com/news  

For more on Transparency International - https://www.transparency.org/en/  

Get Frank’s book The Enablers: How the West Supports Kleptocrats and Corruption - Endangering Our Democracy - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Enablers-Kleptocrats-Corruption-Endangering-Democracy-ebook/dp/B09JGL62L1/  

Get Frank’s book Waging War on Corruption: Inside the Movement Fighting the Abuse of Power - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Waging-War-Corruption-Movement-Fighting/dp/1442218533/  

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The attack, which was later claimed by Qilin, a Russian-speaking cybercriminal gang, was a stark example of how cybercrime has become a national security threat. Attacks against hospitals, schools and businesses of all shapes and sizes have normalised what should be intolerable: cybercriminals, in many cases harboured by hostile states, regularly disrupting and extorting victims, causing misery in the process and creating disorder for the UK economy and society. 

To help us understand this challenge, and as part of our ongoing series of episodes featuring top experts from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Arthur was joined by Jamie MacColl, a Research Fellow in Cyber and Tech at RUSI. Jamie's research focuses on the national security implications of cybercrime, including the relationships between hostile states and cybercriminals. He has given evidence on ransomware on more than one occasion to the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy and also represents RUSI at the Counter Ransomware Initiative, a multilateral grouping of more than 80 countries committed to combating ransomware. Prior to working at RUSI, Jamie worked as a cyber threat intelligence analyst in the private sector. When not working on cybercrime, he is the guitarist in the British band Bombay Bicycle Club.   

They discuss the current state of ransomware, its scale and impact, the role played by rogue states such as Russia and North Korea, and the reasons for the lack of coordinated international  progress in combating the issue.

Finally, as Jamie and Arthur order the disorder, Jamie proposes moving our response to ransomware from the current failing law enforcement model, to an intelligence and counter-terrorism led approach. 

Producer: George McDonagh  

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  

Show Notes Links: 

More on the RUSI Disorder partnership - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast  

Become RUSI members for more of their brilliant content:  https://my.rusi.org/membership.html  

Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5  

High-level summaries on ransomware as a national security threat: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/12/31/how-ransomware-could-cripple-countries-not-just-companies  

Read RUSI piece The Rise of Ransomware as a National Security Threat:  https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/organised-cybercrime-rise-ransomware-national-security-threat  

Read RUSI piece Beyond the Bottom Line: The Societal Impact of Ransomware: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/beyond-bottom-line-societal-impact-ransomware  

Read about the links between cybercrime and state threats:  https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/untangling-the-russian-web/  

Read RUSI article Ransomware: A Life and Death Form of Cybercrime https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ransomware-life-and-death-form-cybercrime   

Read about the impact of ransomware on the UK: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/occasional-papers/ransomware-victim-insights-harms-individuals-organisations-and-society  

Read Ransomware: A Life and Death Form of Cybercrime from RUSI: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ransomware-life-and-death-form-cybercrime  

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The trio discussed the role of sanctions in deterring Putin, and whether the West can finally go further and use seized Russian funds. Plus: Trump’s role – and if Europe (alongside Starmer and Carney) will finally step up to the plate. And they finish with listener questions addressing everything from what happens when Putin dies to if sanctions even work in the first place. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

Hear our other recent episode with Sir Bill https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/84604876351c72eed9ce64fd4031a343  

Hear our previous episode with Stephanie Baker https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/d478c812a95d36c7ee6bf7c7beef4ccf  

For more on Stephanie visit https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/  

Read Sir Bill’s piece calling for Russian asset seizure: 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html  

And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia’s state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets  

Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine’ | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc 

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Please listen to Part 1 before coming to this episode. 

In this conversation, Julia and Jason focus on how extreme ideas enter the mainstream and the implications of the concept of the ‘Overton Window’ [more on that in the links below] for how the boundaries of acceptable political discourse change as ever more extreme ideas are articulated. Jason pushes Julia to draw on her undercover work among the incel community to explain their worldview and the centrality of the concept of being red-pilled.  

And as they Order the Disorder, they discuss the importance of defending expertise in public discourse and Julia proposes an institution that could prevent people from falling into conspiracy theories. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

For an explanation of the Overton window visit https://theweek.com/102517/the-overton-window-explained  

For more on Julia visit https://www.julia-ebner.com/speaker  

For a great video about her life and experiences: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4Kv6P6VII  

Get Julia’s book ‘Going Mainstream: Why extreme ideas are spreading, and what we can do about it’ - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Mainstream-extreme-ideas-spreading/dp/1804183784  

Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/  

Listen: Episode 77 - The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cc41cbf3e1c05fb8a696e0faad151283 This is the second part of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It. 

Please listen to Part 1 before coming to this episode. 

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How has this happened? When did the extremes become mainstream? And what draws people to these radical ways of thinking in the first place? Then as we delve deeper why do extremists so frequently rely on conspiracy theories to articulate their political programs? Why don’t they come out and just voice the radical or exclusionary political program directly? Why do they conceal it via complex conspiracy theories about Lizards, Pedophilia rings, and a Jewish plot to dilute the purity of the white race? 

This is the first episode of a two-part interview with Julia Ebner -- the princess of extremist infiltration, the queen of counter radicalization, and author of Going Mainstream: Why Extreme Ideas are Spreading, and What We Can Do About It. 

The duo delve into the intricate relationship between conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies. Analysing how conspiracy theories serve as a unifying force among various radical groups, by providing a framework for scapegoating and explaining grievances. Plus: the psychological appeal of conspiracy myths, their role in modern political movements, and the historical context that shapes these narratives 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

For more on Julia visit https://www.julia-ebner.com/speaker  

Get Julia’s book ‘Going Mainstream: Why extreme ideas are spreading, and what we can do about it’ - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Going-Mainstream-extreme-ideas-spreading/dp/1804183784  

Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/  

Listen: Episode 77 - The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cc41cbf3e1c05fb8a696e0faad151283  

For a great video about her life and experiences: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4Kv6P6VII  

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Then, Jane and Alex departed the stage, while Arthur and Jason were joined by Neil Melvin, RUSI’s Director of International Security. The trio investigated if Trump actually has a grand strategy and is deliberately accelerating the long durée US pivot to Asia or if he is merely a strategic-less deliberate Disorderer. Then the trio looked at the role Europe plays in global security, while Neil and Jason had an agreeable -- and not even staged -- disagreement about the ideal position the UK can play in global security  – should the UK continue cozying up to the US? Or seek to counterbalance it by forging new relationships and convening a coalition of orderers? 

Lastly, the recording ends with a Lord of the Rings-themed question from a Mega-Ordering audience member.  If you would like to hear the rest of the audience questions and have access to the full recording, please join the pay for substack. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack (paid members can listen to the whole unedited event including listener q and a): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

More on the RUSI Disorder partnership - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast  

Become RUSI members for more of their brilliant content:  https://my.rusi.org/membership.html  

And From Neil Melvin Read:  Europe's attitude to Trump is dangerously naive. He demands action, not words: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/21/europes-attitude-trump-dangerously-naive-he-demands-action/  

And for more on Neil’s bio: https://www.rusi.org/people/melvin  

Read Jane’s piece about OSCE’s potential role - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/its-time-to-use-the-osce/ 

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To help us find governmental Order amidst all this privatized Disorder, Jason is joined by George Monbiot -- Guardian columnist and co-author of ‘The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came to Control Your Life)’. 

In their conversation, the duo chart the evolution of neoliberalism and how it has shifted core governance functions (like transport, health care, and security) from the public sector to private enterprises, leading to a new form of oligarchy. Plus: they look at the failures of centrist politicians to come up with compelling alternatives and they hypothesize about the psychological motivations of the wealthy elite. 

Finally, as they Order the Disorder, they put forward the need for a new political narrative that emphasises community and solidarity - especially on a local level. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to get a discount on our March 21st event with Bill Browder and Stephanie Baker at the Frontline Club): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

Get George Monbiot and Peter Hutchison’s book The Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism (& How It Came to Control Your Life) - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/455534/the-invisible-doctrine-by-hutchison-george-monbiot-and-peter/9780241635902  

For more on the New Books Network which runs lots of podcasts about every sort of topic - https://newbooksnetwork.com/  

And for an NBN podcast on the historic origins of neo-liberalism check out: https://newbooksnetwork.com/neoliberalism  

Read George’s piece - Trump and Musk have launched a new class war. In the UK, we must prepare to defend ourselves - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/19/donald-trump-elon-musk-class-war-uk-us-oligarchies-democracy  

Listen back to our episode with Harvey Whitehouse (start with P1) - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/36cb340116979a4aa2dfdca524988d27  

And buy his book out now in paperback: https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529159158  

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Despite these worrying moves, at the moment, the U-turn remains hypothetical… all words, not yet binding actions. So… how seriously should we take this perspective shift? Does the ‘Vance/Trump Oval Office Ambush’ change everything? And what are the implications for Europe and its allies if America actually switches sides to support Russia long term?

To discuss this perilous moment, we’re joined again by Sir Bill Browder, a successful investor, a globally acclaimed author, and a famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate. Browder’s tireless advocacy for holding dictators and their henchman to account is widely known. He was a guest on the Disorder programme in Ep 26, a few days after his friend Alexei Navalny was murdered by Putin. [NB: the interview at the core of this episode was recorded on Feb 26 before the Oval Office Trump/Zelenskyy/Vance meeting.]  

Today, Jason and Sir Bill discuss the transactional nature of Trump 2.0 and the seek to work out whether the recently announced Ukraine mineral deal actually amounts to a hill of beans. Browder emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation, the moral implications of Trump’s proposed U-turn.

Finally: as they Order the Disorder, Bill and Jason discuss the practicalities of how to turn confiscate currently frozen Russian assets and use them to fund Ukrainian defence.

Producer: George McDonagh

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn

Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links:

Jason’s substack on the the Oval Office Trump/Vance ambush of Zelenskyy: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/he-may-not-be-a-russian-agent-but

For a podcast produced out of Kyiv and dedicated just to the War in Ukraine: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/history-in-the-making-the-war-in-ukraine/id1752915858

Watch Bloomberg Editor Javier Blas on the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have any significant rare earths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=nqJ6Vgetyn8&t=23s&fbclid=IwY2xjawIuZ8ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfHqQQ2oA1u0f9dwlY57utRKDAlMk3uustcJ_QaiEBTeO2Duhzu5d1guUA_aem_CogDpEa6G7WcwC-7R5q6DQ

Read the FT explainer of the US-Ukraine Mineral deal: https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6

Listen to our previous episode with Sir Bill Browder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece

Read Sir Bill’s piece calling for Russian asset seizure:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html

And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia’s state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets

Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine’ | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc

For more on illicit funds and foreign interference, listen to our recent episode with Peter Geoghegan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a7b4de27e0e05e297d97a505357d7050

Part 1 & 2 with Tom Burgis on the issue of UK’s permissiveness over foreign political financing https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b / https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/2ccf0f088b7679b5b053679466f6a42d

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Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack to get details of our March 11th event at RUSI: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

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As Trump and his cronies attempt to tear down all the checks and balances which have traditionally governed how the Executive relates to other branches of American governance, especially over the issue of impoundment, will the Courts or Congress genuinely stand up? If they don’t, or are unable to, is America facing a genuine constitutional crisis? Or is the issue not so much a constitutional crisis but a coordination one - and because we’re in an era of peak disorder – Congress, the Courts, the Dems, popular opposition, protesters, Lincoln Project people, business advocates of non-monopolistic competition – aren’t able to coordinate coherently enough to make a difference? Also why are there not massive popular protests across America, or is now not the right time for them? 

This week, Jason and Alex unpack these issues and more as they try to navigate listeners through the choppy seas of peak Disorder washing over the world. They reflect on the impact of recent Trump policies to defund USAID and undermine Ukraine, debating whether there’s any real coherent end goal to these radical policies beyond strewing Disorder. They also debate whether Trump’s America First agenda makes America stronger or weaker. Jason explains the importance of Russell Vought within Trump’s team, while arguing that Neo-populism isn’t actually about any real solutions or making America Stronger, but is merely about increasing the ‘Disorder and Distraction quotient’ to keep the Neo-populists in power. 

Meanwhile, Alex and Jason argue that the Democratic Party needs to coalesce around a single ‘leader of the opposition’ type-figure to prosecute the case against Trump’s actions. They also dive into Lala-land with their alter-egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. They finish not by Ordering the Disorder, but by diagnosing exactly why the world is living through peak Disorder. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

To examine the real architect of the Disorder, listen to the Today Explained episode about Russell Vought https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-explained/id1346207297?i=1000693687429  

To grasp the constitutional implications of what is transpiring, listen to the excellent 538 podcast with Galen Druke interviewing constitutional law professor Peter Shane https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trumps-theory-of-presidential-power/id1077418457?i=1000693800713  

Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril 

Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis  

And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right 

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As this episode drops, European leaders are finally trying to get out in front of events by meeting in Paris in an emergency summit, to counter with their own ‘peace proposal’ that would actually be beneficial for Ukraine’s future. Disorderly much? 

In this episode of Disorder, Jane Kinninmont tries to navigate these complexities in conversation with Jason Pack, as she brings us her personal reportage from last weekend’s Munich Security Conference. During her visit there, we hear three on-the-spot interviews (Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak; Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister; and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies) - discussing the shifting dynamics of US-European relations, the implications of Trump 2.0 on the Ukraine conflict, and the urgent need for Europe to reassess its defense priorities in light of potential US unpredictability. Plus: in an attempt to Order the Disorder, what can be done to foster unity among European nations? 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril 

Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis  

And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right 

For more on Jane’s interviewees and their outputs: 

Serhiy Leschenko, advisor to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak - https://x.com/leshchenkos?lang=en 

Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defence minister: his bio here - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/todor-tagarev/  

And see his recent ECFR piece “prepare for the worst - four scenarios for Ukraine under Trump 2.0” -https://ecfr.eu/article/prepare-for-the-worst-four-scenarious-for-ukraine-under-trump-2-0/   

Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, head of special projects at the Institute of Security Studies, headquartered in South Africa with offices in Senegal, Kenya and Ethiopia -  https://issafrica.org/author/ottilia-anna-maunganidze 

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It’s hard to tell. The current Labour government is still refusing to set out in detail its plans for Defence, including when it might increase spending to 2.5% of GDP. Instead, we are left waiting for the publication of a new Strategic Defence Review. So are Starmer and co missing an opportunity to be mega Orderers? 

To understand these issues and more, for our first episode in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), we’re joined by Matthew Savill. He’s the Director of Military Sciences at the London-based defence and security think tank. His team focusses on understanding trends in modern warfare and its impact on military strategy, capabilities and planning. Before joining RUSI he spent over 20 years in national security roles in government, starting as an intelligence analyst, and later moving on to policy and operations, working in both the Ministry of Defence and the UK Cabinet Office, and on deployments in Iraq, the Middle East and Afghanistan. 

Jason and Matthew discuss on the UK's role in defense and security, the challenges faced by the UK in military procurement and capabilities, and the need for the UK to maintain its status as a major global player. They compare the approaches in France and the UK, and whether we’re in a potential pre-war era, and whether Britain needs to maintain independent military capacities. 

As they Order the Disorder, they look at whether AI could be the way Britain becomes Mega Orderers, and Matthew leaves with a message for Starmer: invest in people. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

More on our partnership with RUSI - https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast  

Read Matthew’s analysis, Starmer’s New National Security Adviser: A Consequential Choice 

 - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/starmers-new-national-security-adviser-consequential-choice  

Read Matthew’s piece, A Hollow Force? Choices for the UK Armed Forces - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hollow-force-choices-uk-armed-forces  

Read The Disintegrated Review? Britain and the Ukraine Crisis by Matthew https://wavellroom.com/2022/03/14/the-disintegrated-review/  

Our episode on AI with Marc Warner - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/3f615a6ab068a88f5dcd8d444dbbb60f  

Our episode with Jonathan Powell - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/94c9f3ec23902d3f606bffb43dc39928  

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To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by returning guest Peter Geoghegan, an Irish writer, journalist, and director of Democracy for Sale. The duo discuss: the pervasive influence of money in UK politics, how money buys attention and then indirectly influence, and this constellations implications for democracy. Peter tells Jane about the rise of super donors in UK politics and how social media algorithms spread Disorder. 

To finish, they look at how to Order the Disorder. Peter pushes for transparency in governance, and tells Kier Starmer to put a spending cap on individual’s political donations. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Hear our Previous episode with Peter - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a50fd0d6c8ad45567cac6b47cf060d4e  

Peter’s website - https://www.petergeoghegan.com/  

Peter’s substack - https://democracyforsale.substack.com/  

RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security specialises in the intersection of finance and global security. Their research includes work exploring the nature of the threat from global illicit flows, the harm they cause and how best to respond - https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/research-groups/centre-for-finance-and-security  

Listen to Ezra Klein talking about the attention cycle - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/democrats-are-losing-the-war-for-attention-badly/id1548604447?i=1000684362481  

Read Anne Applebaum’s piece on Musk and political interference in Europe https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/03/musk-tech-oligarch-european-election-influence/681453/  

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On today’s Emergency Cast, Jane and Jason spontaneously convene to deal with peak disorder and delve into all the interlocking crises, dead catting, plane crashing, impounding, tariff barrier erecting, and AID stopping that has come to a head during Trump’s Second Week of his Second Term. 

In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jane wonders how much of the world will respond by trying to figure out how to decouple - slowly, gradually, cautiously – from the U.S. because U.S. politics does not exactly seem at its most stable. And Jason muses that Canada, Mexico, the UK and the EU could have chosen to present a united front to Trump, but appear to have elected not to. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

This is a most compelling podcast from the 538 about the ways in which the Trump Presidency threatens the constitutional balance of powers and how the issue of Impoundment is at the very core of the structural and legal threat of Trumpism to 're-do' the underlying structures of America: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000687276109    

From the Washington Post, ‘Senior U.S. official exists after rift with Musk Allies of Payment System’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/01/31/elon-musk-treasury-department-payment-systems/   

From CNN, ‘Inside 45 hours of chaos: The brief life and quick death of Trump’s federal spending freeze’: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/politics/inside-brief-life-trump-federal-spending-freeze/index.html   

From CNN, ‘Trump suggests his plan for Gaza Strip is to ‘clean out the whole thing”’:   https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/25/politics/trump-gaza-strip-jordan-egypt/index.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawIJDhZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfyYNmWDBz3iKiscGQHjvHQx_ZfwOPriV_8VGZmlxTh1JhZ-_NiNKbntsw_aem_rjBE8gcyRVXKVXMhTc-mAQ    

From Congressional Democrats, ‘Background on Unlawful Impoundment in President Trump’s Executive Orders’ https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/fact-sheets/background-unlawful-impoundment-president-trumps-executive-orders  

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Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast  

Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky  

Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f  

Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  

Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934  

Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email  

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Here at the Disorder programme, we try to help Order the Disorder by separating the performative sound and fury of Trump 2.0 from its actual meaningful actions. Jason’s hunch is that much of Trump 2.0 will be Kabuki theatre, as many of Trump’s so-called signature policies are things that he cannot enact as they violate the constitution, but a large implication of his overall programme is to foster deliberate disorder making the US completely different from other markets on things like EVs, oil and gas exploration, manufacturing, worker safety, and regulation, in general. 

To break it all down, in this episode, Jason and Alex reflect on the implications of Trump's pronouncements, the combination of lofty Presidential rhetoric mixed with Trump’s standard American carnage imagery, why previous POTUSs and VPs showed up for the Inauguration, and the impact of Trump's executive orders. They also look at the ceasefire in the Middle East and examine if similar tactics might actually work with Russia/Ukraine.  

Plus: the depressing and corrosive precedent of Biden's pardons, the shift in Silicon Valley's political allegiance, the role of BitCoin and AI on the American economy, the dynamics between the UK and US, and the role of the UK in a Trumpian World… Why can’t Starmer step up and be a mega Orderer? 

To Order the Disorder, the pair suggest that Europe and aligned powers get their act together and start mega ordering, without the US in tow. The show concludes as Jason and Alex postulate that constraining Trump will not happen from external forces, but maybe just maybe there is a potential for the excesses of Trumpism to be contained or managed by internal forces within the Republican Party. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast  

More on Trump’s pardons for Jan 6th rioters https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/opinion/trump-pardons-bolton-jan-6.html  

More on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/world/middleeast/hamas-gaza-israel-cease-fire.html  

Hear Jason on The Bunker - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934  

Jason was interviewed by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email  

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In today’s episode, Nina joins Arthur Snell to tell that story – and look at the role of dis- and mis-information around the globe. If the US under Trump turns into a deliberate disorderer in the information space, who will be left to order? There is an argument that medium powers like the UK, Brazil and the EU will hold the key to stemming the tide. 

Nina is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in the early 2020s, 

she became better known as an expert on disinformation. In 2022, she was appointed by 

the Biden administration to the Disinformation Governance Board, part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. But after Fox attacked her personally, the role was pulled. Since then, she has worked in various NGOs and in other foundations, and her current work is with American Sunlight, which tries to counteract disinformation by providing clear information and research to Americans. 

In her conversation with Arthur, she shares insights into the challenges of combating misinformation in the current political landscape, the role of media and big tech in amplifying disinformation, and the implications for democracy. Plus: the duo discuss shifting dynamics within the Republican Party regarding Russia, Elon Musk's influence, the rise of deepfake technology, and the gendered dimension to the violence that permeates online spaces.  

And then as they try to Order the Disorder, they look at Brazil as a place where disinformation regulation is starting to work, the importance of information literacy, and what’s been done educationally in Ukraine, plus – could smaller, stronger online communities be the answer? 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

For more on Nina visit https://www.ninajankowicz.com/  

For a CBS explainer on what happened to Nina and the role played by Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=64&v=z6havT5C9_M&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F  

Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5  

Read recent report from the American Sunlight Project on Deepfake Pornography Targeting Members of Congress https://www.americansunlight.org/updates/deepfake-pornography-targeting-members-of-congress  

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To discuss this and more, Alex Hall Hall and Jane Kinninmont final co-host a podcast of their own. They (who both have on-the-ground experience in Gaza) discuss: the challenges of establishing trust between the conflicting parties; the fragility of the deal that is currently being agreed; and the need for Western leaders who are trying to leverage the sides for further progress to also emphasise with local populations’ concerns. 

Plus: does Trump’s strongman diplomacy actually work? 

As they Order the Disorder, the ladies discuss the potential for a new Palestinian leadership, the importance of political will/brinksmanship, and the need for a comprehensive approach to rebuilding Gaza – including addressing economic dependencies. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Jane’s Nov 2023 analysis on need for Europe to chart a political pathway out of the violence - https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/europe-and-gaza-political-pathways-out-of-the-violence/ 

Jane’s 2020 article on virtual dialogue with Palestinian youth - https://theelders.org/news/palestinian-perspectives-future 

Jane slags off Jared Kushner’s approach to “peace” in an oped for Haaretz during Trump 1 - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2019-06-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/jared-kushners-paradigm-busting-mideast-peace-deal-just-wont-work/0000017f-e9a9-d639-af7f-e9ffd4e00000 

Read What Gazans Really Think of the War, Who They Blame, and What They Want to Happen Next by Alex https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/20/gaza-hamas-israel-opinion-poll/  

Polling from a youth-led Palestinian polling organisation: 

https://institute4progress.org/ 

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To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK. 

The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences.  

Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this. 

Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy 

Read Has Sudan’s Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point 

More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/  

Read ACLED’s Raleigh Report from December 2024: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the-raleigh-report-december-2024/ 

Read Semafor’s Predictions for Africa in 2025: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2025/africa-in-2025  

RUSI experts in this region are, Dr Joana de Deus Pereira https://www.rusi.org/people/de-deus-pereira, Christopher Hockey https://rusi.org/people/hockey , Michael Jones https://rusi.org/people/jones 

Read RUSI’s paper, Conclusions Paper: Thematic Research Meeting on the Impacts of Disinformation Campaigns in the Sahel (Southern Neighbourhood) and Effects on Radicalisation and Extremist Movements in the EU: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/conclusions-paper-thematic-research-meeting-impacts-disinformation-campaigns-sahel-southern  

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This begs the questions: Could Trump 2.0 symbolise a shift in the Republican foreign policy establishment away from the neoconservatism which has dominated it for four decades and towards a novel and novel approach to American foreign policy? Is this new approach filled with internal contradictions? And what do these countervailing wings of Trumpism mean for Trump 2.0 Administration’s approach to American adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran? 

To investigate, Jason is joined by Dr Alan Mendoza, founder and Executive Director of The Henry Jackson Society -- a Westminster think tank known for proposing bold and neo-conservative solutions to the crises facing Britain and the world. 

The duo begin by reflecting on the historical significance of figures like Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson(D-WA) and the historical inversions represented by Trump's isolationist and transactional approach to global order. Then: Alan and Jason embark on an around the world tour investigating the current structural weaknesses of Russia under Putin, the fragility of dictatorships in general, the growing threat posed by China, strategies for confronting it, and the importance of deterrence in global politics. 

After the ad break Alan and Jason look at: Britain's historical and current role in the Middle East, asking, could Britain compensate for Trumpian aloofness by seeking to reassert a leadership in the MENA region? They explore the influence of Iran as a destabilizing force, the situation in Gaza, the challenges posed by Hamas, and the need for an activist and bold British foreign policy to draw on Britain’s unique strengths and secure her interests. 

As the Order the Disorder, Alan proposes that Britain should invest more in cultivating hard power, while Jason stresses the need for upping Britain’s capacity in the sanctions space. Finally, if he were King for a day, Alan would established a new international institution just for functioning democracies – that could work adjacent to the UN – and act as a coordinating forum for the world’s ordering powers. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

In this week’s substack we will have extra audio content about Hamas disinformation about Gazan civilian casualties during the Israel-Hamas war 

Show Notes Links 

Watch/read interview with Alan about Putin: https://www.the-sun.com/news/13187114/putin-rule-power-russia-mafia/amp/  

Read Restoring Deterrence: Destabilising the Iranian Regime by the Henry Jackson Society https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/restoring-deterrence-destabilising-the-iranian-regime/  

Read Timothy Snyder on Trump, Russia and Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/timothy-snyder-trump-musk-russia-ukraine-putin  

Listen to our episode on Canada’s role in the world: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/601e6a1721995fa854010c309c11ab24  

Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f  

Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  

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In this episode, we continue our spotlight on Hebrew music as it is still Hannukah and the tune we start out with asks the question ‘What will happen in the new year? We have to wait and see’. Jason is joined by fan favourite Jane Kinninmont to discuss the past year: reflecting on the myriad challenges faced by Orderers. They dissect the most Disordering events of 2024 as well as providing some hypotheticals like the various dogs that didn’t bark: the assassination attempt against Trump leading to an American civil war or a hot war between Israel and Iran emerging due to a miscalculation. 

Plus: what is the background of Susan Wiles, who is she, what stock does she come from, and what is her likely role in the incoming Trump government (could she be a power behind the throne and a real orderer)? We also discuss the centrality of the immigration issue to the global neo-populist movement. 

Meanwhile, Jason wonders: has the center-left got it all wrong? Have we been too biased on the pod in 2024 in cheerleading for Starmer and American centrists? This chain of thought culminates in some musings on Angela Merkel’s leadership, and her missteps, and the influence of conspiracy theories in popular culture. The show ends predictability by our discussing how each of us can help to order the disorder in 2025, emphasizing the importance of civic engagement and individual empowerment to help drive positive policies. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

For more about our Glaswegian Fan Favourite Jane Kinninmont: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/  

And her recent fascinating article in The Times of India ‘Ayatollah after Assad’: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/ayatollah-after-assad/  

Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/ 

If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast  

For more of Yoav Oved’s music visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB  

Or instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1  

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Plus:  Alex’s recent trip to Georgia, highlighting the protests against the Georgian Dream government’s cancellation of EU membership, and how the West should respond. Also: the plight of the Kurds in Northeastern Syria, the need for a jamboree international conference of aid and capacity building support for Syria, the importance of proactive Western leadership on issues like Georgia and Syria and the potential profound consequences of inaction.  

And as they Order the Disorder, they express hope for positive change amidst global disorder. For Xmas Jason wishes for ‘Two NATOs on climate change, one NATO on tax havens, and a partridge in a pear tree,’ while Alex wishes for ‘the EU to come up with a way to bypass Hungary and Slovakia and put sanctions on Georgia before the end of the year.’ 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read more about the plight of the Kurds of Northeastern Syria- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/middleeast/kurdish-forces-syria-turkey-isis-america.html 

Alex has written this great overview article about the situation in Georgia from her recent trip:  https://bylinetimes.com/2024/12/17/the-west-will-regret-abandoning-the-georgian-people-to-the-clutches-of-russia/ 

And Arthur Snell has interviewed one of the leading experts on HTS and the Syrian anti-Assad jihadi landscapes: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/inside-hts-what-does-al-jolani-want-and-how-will-they-rule/id1704344656?i=1000680598620 

If you like the way the Disorder Pod sounds check out ‘Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off? – podcast’  where the reporting and the audio production are done by our producer George McDonagh: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/dec/19/can-a-steel-town-survive-if-its-furnaces-are-turned-off-podcast  

For more on Evoke visit https://www.evokemusic.org/  

For more of Yoav Oved visit his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/YoavSings/?locale=en_GB  

Or Instagram https://www.instagram.com/yoavsings/?__d=1  

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So what does Canada do when the world’s largest trading relationship (Canada’s with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief’ for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo? 

To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America’ to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes. 

Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau’s handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025.  

Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/stalemate-why-the-house-of-commons-has-ground-to-a-halt/id1621425319?i=1000677888744 

Listen to Marci’s appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada: https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-panel-what-trump-means-for-canada?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=804175&post_id=151283084&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ruvru&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email 

Listen to our Ben Ansell episode about other elections: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/50e9a35e0737bb9d0ddf29460a199c37  

Read profile of Melanie Joly: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/world/canada/melanie-joly-foreign-affairs-profile.html  

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There has been a genuine outpouring of jubilation among Syrians at home and abroad - even the ones working at the Syrian embassy in Moscow who ‘chose’ to fly the rebel flag. But the international responses are messier - regional players talk of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity, while several countries welcome the new order with bombing raids (especially Turkey and Israel who are now operating inside Syria to weaken their enemies and occupy buffer zones). Meanwhile, even as Europeans ask whether jihadis will dominate the new Syria, the same European governments (notably Austria) are simultaneously drawing up plans to deport the Syrian refugees seeking asylum in their country -- because it must be safe now, right? 

In this bonus episode examining the Post-Assad Syria: From Euphoria to Uncertainty, Jason is joined by our returning Glaswegian champion, Jane Kinninmont. She is just back from an international conference in Doha where she sat one row behind Russia’s FM Sergei Lavrov. 

Jane and Jason tell stories from their times in Syria… about sweets and about being spied on. They break down all things Syria. Trying to draw lessons from a disorderly past to an orderly future. 

We examine: did Russia and Iran throw Assad under a bus? Several things changed in the regional calculus but - primarily they realized the game was up for Assad domestically. To save him they would have needed to commit major forces, and at a time when Israel might well have willing to join the fight to make sure that Iran lost - at least if Iran sent troops. And while those were clearly the major calculations, the “benefits” part of the Russo-Iranian cost-benefit analysis of propping up Assad had also dwindled.   Iran wasn’t actually getting so many benefits from Assad -- who spent most of the year trying to stay out of the regional war, avoid confronting Israel and pursue normalisation with Arab states.  

The episode ends with Jane and Jason Ordering the Disorder by concluding that the West and the Middle East alike were caught horribly unprepared. Still wounded by the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, Western countries may shy away from lending serious capacity building assistance to a democratic Syrian led transition process - but fatalism is the wrong approach - the transition is more likely to be more peaceful and more successful if more political and economic resources are invested in it - especially by democratic countries willing to use carrots and sticks.  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

The David Runciman Pod that Jane mentions explaining linear vs cyclical and non-linear conceptions of history: https://www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the-history-of-bad-ideas%3A-the-end-of-history 

Jason’s appearance on Monocle’s The Globalist talking more about the Alawites: https://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-globalist/3495/play/  

A great Special Briefing from my former colleagues at MEI about what’s next in Syria: https://www.mei.edu/blog/special-briefing-after-assads-fall-whats-next-syria-and-region 

Israel, Seeing an Opportunity, Demolishes Syria’s Military Assets: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-syria.html 

A visual timeline of the events: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-rebels-timeline-assad.html  

While international support is crucial, Syrians must lead their country’s political transition: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/while-international-support-crucial-syrians-must-lead-their-countrys-political-transition   

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We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers. 

On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific. 

In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7  

And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b  

For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome  

And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/  

And the Irish elections:  

https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html  

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Today’s guest on Disorder, Ben Ansell holds the contrarian view that democracy is actually alive and well. He asserts that even if we are not happy with recent outcomes, we should still trust the process.  

Ben Ansell is Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. He was the 2023 BBC Reith Lecturer and the presenter of ‘What's Wrong With Democracy?’ by Tortoise Media and ‘Rethink’ on BBC Radio 4. His most recent book is ‘Why Politics Fails’ and he writes the Substack 'Political Calculus’.  

In the episode, Jason and Ben embark on an around-the-world tour to survey this epic year of elections and analyse the state of democracy globally. They look at the key features that have defined this cycle, especially anti-incumbency sentiments.  

QUOTE OF THE SHOW ‘This is the only year, 2024, where in every single MAJOR WESTERN country, the incumbents lost votes. They didn't always lose office, but they often did, because when you're losing 5 or 10 % of votes in competitive systems, you're a goner. First off… it looks, if you look at John's FT graph [in the shownotes], things have just got more volatile over the last decade or so anyway. And so that might be just a change among voters, that voters have become more like consumers. I mean, we are all consumers [in our mind sets]. And in most of the countries that have elections in capitalist markets, we [are used to] switching goods all the time. And I suppose there's reason to believe that [moving forward] we might switch parties all the time.’ 

Jason and Ben delve deeper into the unique case of Georgia, where incumbents have managed to increase their majority despite global trends. The duo also cover the outcomes of the European elections, the implications of criminality as a feature rather than a bug of global neopopulism, and the roles of Russian and Chinese influence operations in election results across the world. The episode concludes with Ben – an optimistic mega-orderer by temperament and intellectual conviction – genuinely Ordering the Disorder by saying that Trump can, and will, be contained and that the institutions of American democracy can actually withstand another Trump term. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

FT anti-incumbency graph/article: https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893  

Why Politics Fails https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/444113/why-politics-fails-by-ansell-ben/9780241992753  

Rethink: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08gt1ry  

What's Wrong With Democracy?: https://www.tortoisemedia.com/listen/whats-wrong-with-democracy/  

Ben’s Substack: https://benansell.substack.com  

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Jumping off from these prompts Alex and Jason cover myriad topics including: the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, whether JD Vance could become President before 2028, the ways we can incorporate the lessons of behavioral economics into political decision-making, and the role of the transgender issue in the recent election campaign. Plus: the challenges for liberal elites in truly understanding Trump voters, if Taylor Swift and other celebrities actually helped or hurt the Dems, and why even in these dark days, we can remain optimistic about the potential success of a collective effort to preserve democracy. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Learn more about the history of Thanksgiving: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day  

And the Origins of Turkey: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/why-americans-call-turkey-turkey/383225/  

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In this episode, Jason and Alex discuss what will happen to the ongoing legal cases against Trump, the forthcoming Trump administration’s attempts to disorder and dismantle American institutions and checks and balances, and the likely evolution of the Supreme Court. After a lengthy discussion of the initial proposal of Matt Gaetz’s as Attorney General and his subsequent withdrawal, Alex introduces listeners to Xela Llah Llah, her Trump-voting alter-ego who lives on the other side of the looking glass and who will occasionally be coming on the podcast to explain politics from her point of view. 

After some wise words from Xela which ‘help us empathize with the other side’, Jason and Alex turn their attention back to the UK, looking at whether Starmer’s appearance at COP means anything, and how (if at all) he can push to become a more prominent global leader on a range of issues. In a rather downbeat and informal Ordering the Disorder segment, we examine the future of multilateralism and the global political order (is there any such thing anymore?) 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Matt Gaetz’s Bio and why Criminality leads to loyalty: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000677307816  

On Matt Gaetz’s replacement Pam Bondi: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/pam-bondi-attorney-general-trump.html  

And for a Trump Cabinet Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-administration-cabinet-appointees.html  

Also a link back to last week’s episode discussing how Starmer should be bolder: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep83-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-the-two-matts/id1706818264?i=1000677421360  

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In this episode, Jason is joined by Matt Kelly and Matt d’Ancona – the hosts of The New European’s ‘The Two Matts’ podcast. They discuss the abysmal state of the world and Keir Starmer’s inability to lead with vision. They review and assess the rise of neopopulism in both the UK and the US. The conclusion is that the goose is cooked. Complacency and a lack of bold messaging has led to the evisceration of the centre-left globally. Jason even questions if he is of the centre-left anymore, concluding he may simply be a disillusioned and increasingly radical centrist. While the Two Matts share bon mot about recent horrific developments in Britain, Jason explores some lessons from Hungary and Israel, which may possibly shed some light on the likely future trajectory of neopopulism in America. Delving briefly into the shocking and depressing cabinet appointments trickling out of MAGA world, the Two Matts and Jason also reflect on the social legacy of the Trump era and its lasting impact on Western political discourse. In place of Ordering the Disorder (which may no longer be possible as Disorder has already won), The Two Matts answer lightening round questions about the most macabre moments of Trump-iness and some of the humorous aspects of the challenges ahead. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Get the Two Matts podcast - https://podfollow.com/2matts  

Read the latest edition of the New European here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/edition/the-beast-unleashed/  

Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/  

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And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time? 

In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting. 

Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/  

What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win 

“I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks  

Trump’s Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html  

Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans:  https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/  

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Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order. 

Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t cancel American democracy 

Show Notes Links 

To Get Sasha’s Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From’: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/  

Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/  

On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines 

On ‘Defending Europe with less America’: https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp  

‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency’: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/ 

On Michigan’s Arab voters: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbWljaGlnYW4taGFycmlzLXRydW1wLWFyYWItYW1lcmljYW5zLWxlYmFub24td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1nYXph&pid=OC20506955  

And the ‘Uncommitted’ movement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/michigan-biden-harris-gaza-uncommitted-arab-vote/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bWljaGlnYW4tYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLWdhemEtdW5jb21taXR0ZWQtYXJhYi12b3Rl&pid=OC20506955  

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In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister’s office and the Foreign Office.  

Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn’t achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win 

Show Notes Links 

The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/ 

UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf 

A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/ 

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Conspiracy theories are not only, not new, they are a core part of how campaigns of social change are articulated. The more radical the change – the French Revolution, the rise of Hitler, or Trump’s election—the more paramount the need for conspiracy theories to motivate the required action need to bring it about. Given his recent study of the phenomenon, Jason articulates his view that the conspiratorial rhetoric around this election embodies a new ‘us vs. them’ turn in American political life. He urges Andrew and listeners to Read beneath the surface! And Unpack the True hidden meaning of the conspiracy! 

Pointing to his New European Article (published this week), Jason concludes: Conspiracy theories are a socially acceptable way of articulating a Politics of Ressentiment – of pitting groups against each other. Just like Brexit, Trump has signalled that he will ‘take back control’ from the minorities, Jews, uppity feminists, transgender activists, immigrants, urban lawyers, and all the other groups you hate and feel have too much power. Spooky indeed! 

Show Notes Links 

Read Jason’s New European Article here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/  

And revisit last week’s Disorder episode 76, ‘The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers’ with Joe Uscinski here:  https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi 

Check out Andrew Keen’s Substack here: https://keenon.substack.com/  

Listen to Andrew podcast on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kkWdvi3xdG7JvTbQ0l9Ho  

And one of his fun episodes on Intellectual Objectivity here: https://keenon.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-geeky-intellectuals  

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Jason Pack is joined by Zongyuan ‘Zoe’ Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Jason and Zoe discuss how China's economic policies – characterized by a motley mix of market-driven and state-controlled elements – have led to both tremendous Chinese excellence in manufacturing and also oversupply. The duo also discuss: the changing US-China relationship, the implications of Chinese overproduction on the global economy, and the role of massive Chinese provincial government debt. 

As they Order the Disorder, they suggest how existing institutions like the World Trade Organization could work better, and how to patch up the failing marriage between China and the West. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read Zoe’s article ‘China’s Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model’ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu 

Read more on why ‘China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable’https://www.ft.com/content/553b106c-2bba-4f90-86d6-8496fc9cf902 

On the Chinese hacking of Trump and Vance’s phone’s: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/chinese-hackers-targeted-trump-and-vances-phone-data/index.html  

For more on China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy? https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy-241260 

To get more on Zongyuan Zoe Liu https://www.cfr.org/expert/zongyuan-zoe-liu 

Watch US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns explain The China Challenge https://foreignpolicy.com/live/burns-china-us-competition-diplomacy/ 

Read George Manus’ piece ‘China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity‘ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/chinas-plan-to-boost-flagging-growth-is-the-very-definition-of-economic-insanity 

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To explore this complex world, Jason Pack is joined by Joseph Uscinski. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, author of ‘Conspiracy Theories: A Primer’, and editor of Conspiracy ‘Theories and the People Who Believe Them’. 

Throughout the episode, Jason engages in a conspiracy to come up with a unified field theory of how to unlock the meaning of conspiracy theories. Joe rains on his parade, rejecting most of Jason’s pet theories, while unsurprisingly approving of his own pet theory: ‘Conspiracy Theories are for Losers and express a coherent world view that suits those without economic or political power’. 

Jason and Joe discuss how conspiracy theories have become intertwined with certain types of modern political movements (especially disordering neo-populist ones), the psychological and social factors that motivate belief in conspiracy theories, the role of antisemitism throughout much conspiratorial thinking, and how these theories often target marginalised groups. The show closes with various sharp debates like over whether entertainment value or calls to political action have key roles to play in the spread of conspiracy theories. Lastly, when they Order the Disorder, Jason and Joe disagree vehemently over the role of global institutions should play in curtailing the spread of conspiracy theories. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ to get the special substack-only second episode on Backgammon and Politics with former World Champion of Backgammon Sander Lylloff which drops tomorrow October 23rd 

Show Notes Links 

For various experts who think Conspiracy Theories entail and motivate actions: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/marianna-in-conspiracyland/id1690561703?i=1000616687886  

Get Joseph’s book, Conspiracy Theories: A Primer: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/conspiracy-theories-joseph-e-uscinski/1133459048  

Listen to Joseph explain conspiracy theories and the people who believe them: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dr-joseph-uscinski-conspiracy-theories-and-the-people/id1599806986?i=1000549404259  

Listen to Joseph on confronting conspiracy theories: 

https://www.podcastone.com/episode/Episode-8---Confronting-Conspiracy-Theories-with-Joseph-Uscinski  

Read how conspiracy theories have taken hold in far right communities: https://www.thejc.com/lets-talk/i-went-undercover-among-the-fascists-and-this-is-what-i-found-rd5o5whq  

Read the definition Jason uses for popular conspiracy theories: https://allthatsinteresting.com/popular-conspiracy-theories  

Read definition of the 6 types of conspiracy theories: https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2024/02/25/a-psychologist-explains-6-types-of-conspiracy-theories/  

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But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia’s fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin’s Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer’s Club’ where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West? 

In this’ investigative’ episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.’ The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap’ on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin’s access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security’: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  

Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b  

For more on Stephanie visit: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/  

Get Stephanie’s book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583  

Readna review of Punishing Putin: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/13/punishing-putin-review-us-economic-sanctions-russia-war-ukraine/  

Read more from Stephanie on how Seizing a Russian Superyacht is much more complicated than you think: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/russian-oligarch-s-seized-yachts-are-costing-tax-payers-millions  

And for some amusement amidst all the seriousness, Read ‘Giuliani Has Curious Links to a Jewish Village in Ukraine’ by Stephanie https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/guiliani-link-to-jewish-village-ukraine  

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In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by the former #1 Giant of Backgammon, Wilcox Snellings. In the 1990s, he was considered by his peers to be the best player in the world. The duo discuss: Wilcox’s upbringing, New York’s gambling culture, the milieu of high stakes gambling and its myriad lessons for confronting disorder with probabilistic calculations. 

The duo explore how concepts of expected value and game theory, which underpin modern economics, derive from gambling. They also explore the concepts popularized by Nate Silver in his new book 'On the Edge', which focuses on the dichotomy between ‘the River’ (i.e. the community of risk takers) and ‘the village’ (i.e. the community of PC, play-it-safe, left-leaning establishment elites). Wilcox and Jason explore how today’s crop of political leaders often fail to utilize the principles of risk vs reward calculations and fail to grasp inherent causal connections when making decisions. In the Ordering the Disorder section, Wilcox and Jason link the failure of left and centrist politicians in tackling the challenges of campaign finance, taxation equity, and income inequality to their risk averseness.  

If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear its partner episode with Sander Lylloff the 2022 World Champion of Backgammon Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Next week that special bonus episode will drop only on the Substack. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to the World’s current number 1 Giant of Backgammon Mochy talking to Jason’s friend Etan Ilfeld: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803  

Venture into online backgammon and amongst the stars on Backgammon Galaxy: https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/  

For another more personal interview about Wilcox’s life: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Wilcox+Snellings&mid=801C99A1E7F69963E00A801C99A1E7F69963E00A&FORM=VIRE  

Read more about Nate Silver’s book https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/09/09/on-the-edge-the-art-of-risking-everything-nate-silver-book-review 

And a fairly cogent critique of Silver’s book:  

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/on-the-edge-book-review-nate-silver-risk/  

Read Jason’s article written in Dubai three years ago about Backgammon, peace making, and the Abraham Accords: https://www.mei.edu/publications/personal-vantage-point-gamble-abraham-accords-dubais-first-international-backgammon  

Watch Jason Play a commentated tournament backgammon live from Dubai starting at 3:51:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDxx1yG78o  

Listen to current world number 1, Mochy on Backgammon and Life on the Etan Ilfeld Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803  

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Both Jason and Sir Vincent argue that it is impossible to Order the Disorder globally on issues like climate change without tackling the Middle East head on. This episode is both a heartbreaker and a must-listen. 

For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

On the impact of recognising a Palestinian state: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44j1njggjo  

For more on the Balfour Project: https://balfourproject.org/#:~:text=-%20Balfour%20Project.%20Peace%20with%20justice,%20security%20and  

On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284  

On the economic impacts of one year of war on the region and the globe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-year-to-the-war-in-gaza/id1584397047?i=1000671757710 

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To mark the sober anniversary of October 7, Jason Pack is joined by Sir Vincent Fean. Over the course of a long and distinguished diplomatic career, Sir Vincent was British Consul General in Jerusalem – which is essentially Britain’s Ambassador to the Palestinians. Currently, Sir Vincent urges the British government to recognise a Palestinian state via his role as trustee and former Chairman of The Balfour Project, an NGO. 

In this first part of a two-part episode, Jason and Sir Vincent seek to shine light on a few interrelated topics: firstly to provide an overview of the last year of tragedy, violence, and death in the Middle East; to unpick Israeli military strategy or lack thereof, to contextualize the vast humanitarian suffering of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians; to situate the Oct 7 attacks in the long continuum of Jewish persecution; and examine the re-emergence of previously dormant forms of conspiratorial antisemitism around the world. Please join us tomorrow for Part II of the discussion btw Jason and Sir Vincent. 

For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

A quick factual overview from Deutsche Welle on the October 7th attacks and the ensuing year of violence: https://www.dw.com/en/october-7-hamas-attacks-on-israel-a-year-later/a-70399696#:~:text=On%20October%207,%202023,%20Hamas,%20the%20Palestinian%20militant  

A more detailed strategic look at what happened on October 7th: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamas-october-7-attack-tactics-targets-and-strategy-terrorists#:~:text=Hamas%20fighters%20killed%20an%20estimated%201,400%20Israelis,%20largely  

On the Nova Massacre and Oct 7th videos: https://time.com/6565186/october-7-hamas-attack-footage-film/  

Listen back to ep on ICC Verdict: Ep24. What does South Africa stand to gain from accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/7a0930e7d9052f19cd7072d72214edfb   

UNRWA Imperiled by Terrorism Charges: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/unrwa-israel-gaza-terrorism.html 

On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284  

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In this special episode focusing on the VP debate, and the threat Vance presents to democracy, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Greg Olear, host of the Prevail podcast and author of ‘Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail.’ 

The pair analyze the implications of the debate for the upcoming election, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential threats posed by Vance's political agenda. Plus to Order the Disorder, Alex and Greg delve into the need for the Democrats to communicate effectively. 

For more on the ongoing US Presidential race, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Vance and Walz stick to policy in polite VP debate - but who won? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o  

CBS cut mics and fact-checked JD Vance in a more civil VP debate, drawing the ire of Trump and his allies: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/media/vance-walz-debate-cbs-moderators-fact-check/index.html  

Listen to Greg’s podcast Prevail at https://pod.link/1553506699  

Read his Substack Prevail at https://gregolear.substack.com/  

Get his book Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail https://www.amazon.com/Rough-Beast-Re-Elected-Democracy-Prevail-ebook/dp/B0D4MS1D25  

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To find out, Arthur Snell and Jane Kinninmont recorded a special bonus episode of the podcast. The duo discuss: the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran – examining the motivations of both parties. They analyse Netanyahu's political manoeuvring, the complexities of Lebanon's political/sectarian landscape, and the potential for diplomatic solutions amidst the chaos. Plus, they dissect the challenges faced by the international community in addressing the crisis and the implications for US influence in the region, as they try and Order the Disorder. 

For more on the fast moving situation across Lebanon and the wider region, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast Behind The Lines: https://shows.acast.com/65196b0b1488340011cf14a1  

Read Tom Fletcher’s (a former guest from Episode Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cd7401e8093b8bb8f10c639a30db226c) piece on what’s next for the region: https://www.ft.com/content/f78a4277-8f94-40c4-a4d4-6c0bde361ecb  

Read Michael Young’s Twitter Thread on the latest: https://x.com/beirutcalling/status/1840008152336527715?s=46  

More on the moving situation in Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/  

Read this really insightful bio of Hassan Nasrallah by Hassan Hassan (from Syria) and Karim Shaheen in New Lines magazine - https://newlinesmag.com/argument/end-of-an-era-what-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-spells-for-the-middle-east/  

Read this article by Michael Young (@beirutcalling) which covers both the regional risks and the domestic political implications - https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/09/israel-has-assassinated-the-secretary-general-of-hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah?lang=en&center=middle-east  

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Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug 5, 2024, after a brutal government crackdown against protests had resulted in hundreds of deaths. The country’s president, the armed forces, and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition. However, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government’s reforms and the slow progress towards elections.  

Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its transition from corrupt populism/creeping authoritarianism back to democracy needs to be aided by outside economic help and by being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivalries. Bangladesh’s transition is unfolding amidst Peak Disorder. This makes it very fraught. To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about ‘Peak Disorder’, Jason is joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre. 

To get more background information and perspective about this very complex topic pleasure join our substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links: 

Michael’s sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation: 

https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/the-geopolitics-sheikh-hasinas-fall-explained-3676511 

Michael’s bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman  

For a real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh: 

https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190 

A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman: 

https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/bangladesh-politics-and-the-business-of-remembering/104180756 

And for an update on the current state of play in Bangladesh and what might lie ahead: 

https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-khaleda-zia-election-3525d4c39c748a974f67b62efadb23b9 

And for the conceptual take on how Tyrants rise and fall revisit Ep 67 with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e 

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In this episode, Jason is joined by the host of The Jordan Harbinger Show. The pair discuss: how Jordan got kidnapped (and Jason shares his own tale of being kidnapped in Syria and Lebanon); what life is really like in North Korea; why symbols matter so much in dictatorships; the psychology of Xi Jinping; how to deter China from invading Taiwan; why dictators are so fragile and touchy about being made to look bad; and how campaign finance reform could help us order the disorder. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

To listen to Jordan’s show visit https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ 

Check out his episode ‘A Divorce Lawyer’s Guide to Lasting Love Part One’ here: https://www.jordanharbinger.com/james-sexton-a-divorce-lawyers-guide-to-lasting-love-part-one/  

And our previous episode with Marcel Dirsus on the innerworkings of Tyrannies here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e  

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Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links: 

Listen to our first episode here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/63ff389b562a075c49a81c86e239b85c  

And listen to some of the other favourite episodes that this episode references, 

With Bill Browder (on Navalny’s death): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece  

With Evegenia Kara Murza (whose husband has just been released in the prisoner swap): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8  

With Miles Taylor (author of the famous Anonymous article in the NYT): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed  

With Armen Sarkissian (the former President of Armenian - Part 1): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/380a900513c99b34f849e4d74119f46a  

And the one containing arguably our greatest moment with Kurt Volker: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/f20a464df3a71e64f887891339b720dc 

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To discuss the deep connections between Tyranny and Disorder, we are joined by Marcel Dirsus, Jason’s old Oxford chum, former Libya-Analysis LLC contractor, and author of ‘How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive’. Marcel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University and a member of the Standing Expert Committee on Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. 

Jason and Marcel dig into the psychology of tyrannical leaders and the structural factors that push tyrants to behave as they do. They explore the concept of the ‘selectorate’ — i.e. who really matters in a given society to keep the ruler in power.  They explain how tyrannies have a much smaller and more elite ‘selectorate’ than democracies… this explains why pleasing these very few elites in the immediate term is the key variable required to keep dictators in power… and since those few pillars of regime support might flip at any moment, tyranny is actually an incredibly brittle form of government… and can actually collapse at any moment if its support pillars are removed 

In the Ordering the Disorder section, Marcel and Jason urge democratic nations to realize the true extent of weakness prevalent in most dictatorships and target tyrants’ henchmen to help create a more Ordered globe. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

What is the Selectorate and what are the implications of ‘Selectorate Theory’ on how we understand international politics?  oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-293 

Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/  

But if you want to actually learn about Libya rather than simply reading some kooky stories that Marcel includes about Qadhafi, get Jason’s book: https://globalenduringdisorder.com/  

Read more about Marcel at https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/07/17/taking-on-the-global-brotherhood-of-despots  

Visit his website https://www.marceldirsus.com/  

Visit his substack https://thehundred.substack.com/  

And for the reference to Nadav Safran’s ‘Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security’: https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Arabia-Ceaseless-Quest-Security/dp/0674789857  

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Trump acknowledged that he cannot go against Putin’s wishes, that he does not want the Ukrainians to win the war; and then when taunted by Kamala about the small ‘crowd-size’ at his rallies, Trump simply imploded: spewing grievance-filled conspiratorial lies about Haitian Migrants eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio, that Democrats order doctors to kill babies after birth, and that the Biden-Harris administration gives transgender transition surgeries to illegal aliens. 

We at the Disorder Pod don’t want to count chickens before they are hatched, but were both favourably surprised by Kamala’s performance. As we pointed out in Ep 65, she does portray herself in a rigid, prosecutorial vibe and has been weak at explaining the specifics of her programmes. She might play identity cards a bit much for some middle-aged white males. And yet!, Sept 10, 2024 may go down in history as the first time that an opposing politician beat Donald J. Trump at the game of television. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush failed at it in the 2016 Republican Primary. Hillary and Biden may have won debates against him but they never beat him at the game of television. Whereas, Harris made Trump look like a buffoon and she successfully baited and taunted him on live TV before tens of millions. She made the contrast extremely clear: that she wishes to Order the American economy and the world, while Trump wishes to Disorder it. 

Show Notes Links: 

Read Alex’s Byline Times Article, ‘A Stumbling Trump Receives a Well-Deserved Shellacking at the First Presidential Debate’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/11/donald-trump-kamala-harris-debate-president-receives-shellacking-at-the-first-presidential-showdown/ 

Listen to Mehdi Hassan on the Guardian pod explain Gish-Galloping and how Donald Trump’s debate strategy usually works and how it can be (and was defeated): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000668961270  

Listen to the 538 on the history Presidential Debates and how much they have swung the polls in the past: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000668933282 

Listen to our take on Harris’s weaknesses with white men from yesterday here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3MtV4SS0QjAQGN5p9distS?go=1&sp_cid=40c19a23f8ed49573a18b2bb3c9b9b95&utm_source=embed_player_p&utm_medium=desktop&nd=1&dlsi=c462b99a0ae7432c  

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Pivoting away from this doom and gloom, the duo take listener questions. They look at how host countries could better assimilate migrants; whether Starmer should take a braver approach to push the UK back into the single market; how to stave off the rise in populist parties like AfD; how to push back against anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories from one’s colleagues; and if a nationalised health system like the NHS can deliver ‘Ordering Solutions’ for its population or if the failure of the NHS at present showcases that state-led mega ordering is simply not possible in today’s world. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to our million downloads episode which was referenced numerous times, especially about Sweden, Privatization, health care, and assimilation/migration, https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c8bf88a4b5b3bfc2ba60f36c12bc4de  

And for more on Harris and her problems being bold and landing with White men: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-political-director-warns-of-trouble-sign-for-harris-as-she-lags-with-white-male-voters-in-key-states/ar-AA1q3lkL  

And her problems also surface with Hispanic voters, especially men: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/skeptical-voters-wrestle-know-kamala-harris-seen-donald-trump-rcna168784  

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Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World   https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227 

For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/  

Explore the ideas of Peter Turchin’s ‘Ultrasociety’: https://peterturchin.com/book/ultrasociety/  

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In today’s episode, Jason Pack is joined by Harvey Whitehouse, Director of the Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion at Oxford University and author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World. Jason and Harvey explore: why cultivating a deeper understanding of evolutionary biology helps us explain the exact sociological appeal of strongmen like Putin and Trump; whether the decline in global religiosity has made societies less governable; and why the concept of identity fusion can shed light on how humans see their very essence of their being as part of a group and are willing to act collectively and selflessly to achieve what are perceived as shared interests. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World  https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227  

For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/  

Listen back to Claire York in ‘Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?’ https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ddabc397bd974b61f558504f5fff388f 

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The two ruminate on a host of topics including: the rather surprising interconnections between neo-liberal reforms in Sweden and Syria and what they tell us about our era of Global Enduring Disorder; whether 2004 was the worst year in geopolitics, but the best year to drink arak in Damascus; whether a certain kind of vulgar Hegelianism might just save us from the current disorder; and whether Kier Starmer might just have what it takes to be the antidote to the rise of the far-right authoritarians. The episode concludes with Jason taking stock of what he has learned from doing the Disorder pod by laying out his vision for the kind of global institutions needed to make a Global Enduring Order come into being while Karim explains why bottom-up organizing and more voluntary associations are also needed to help us Order the Disorder. 

Links:  

For more on Karim Zakhour and the Försvarshögskolan: https://www.fhs.se/sc/profile-page.html?identity=400.506a10b718cee96f44e50adb  

The Origins of AGE: From States and Markets to Scientific Methods  

(https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-13722-8_23) 

What will the world look like in a hundred years? What will the study of international relations be like? This article lays out a vision of the future, at once familiar and unexpected. 

Entrepreneurs of desperation: Young men and migration in interior Tunisia 

 (https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003353232-11/entrepreneurs-desperation-karim-zakhour) 

The article looks at how young men in Tunisia try to navigate around harsh economic realities and dream of better lives. 

While We Wait: Democratization, State and Citizenship among Young Men in Tunisia's Interior Regions 

(https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1456250&dswid=5417) 

Why did the Tunisian democratic experiment fail? Based on long fieldwork this Ph. D thesis argues that democratization creates both opportunities and deep uncertainties that are amplified by economic failures and thus creates its own authoritarian reaction.   

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

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To discuss whether AI could be used as an ‘Ordering Force’ if regulated properly, Jason is joined by Marc Warner. Marc is the founder of Faculty.AI, and has worked with many UK government agencies and leading multinational brands to implement impactful AI solutions. He sat on the Prime Minister’s AI Council, helped the NHS use AI to save thousands of lives during the pandemic, and attended the first ever AI Safety Summit. 

Jason and Marc discuss: the role AI could play in fixing Britain’s broken public services, whether a Starmer-led Britain could become an AI superpower, and how the whole globe desperately needs global co-ordination to keep AI from turning into a Disordering technology. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to our previous episode with Miles Taylor, Ep25. Could Artificial Intelligence-powered disinformation campaigns cause electoral mayhem? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed  

Read: ‘Using AI to transform public services’ (foreword written by Marc & Tony Blair) https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/governing-in-the-age-of-ai-a-new-model-to-transform-the-state  

Watch: ‘Human Led AI’ - a talk by Marc https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/human-led-ai  

Read: ‘AI Could Save (the UK) Government £200 Billion Over Five Years’ https://www.institute.global/insights/news/ai-could-save-government-gbp200-billion-over-five-years  

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Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Read Full Text of ICC Application for Arrest Warrants https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-icc-prosecutor-karim-khans-application-for-arrest-warrants/  

Listen to our episode with Bill Browder, Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece  

Hear our episode with Evgenia Kara Murza, Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8  

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Alex and Jason close the episode by proposing how the EU could use its trading might to incentivize global co-ordination on issues like climate change and AI. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com

For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com

And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata  

And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/  

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While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions. 

To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/  

For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/  

And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata  

And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/  

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Amidst this biggest year of elections in human history, the Tunisian election (initially scheduled for July 25 and now pushed back to October 6) has been largely forgotten in the mainstream media and even ignored by western policymakers. Yet, the dynamics at play in neo-populism’s current ascendancy in Tunisia – fear of migrants, coordination failures on behalf of Western allies, as well as Chinese and Russian meddling – are a perfect microcosm of the key aspects of Enduring Disorder elsewhere. 

On the pod, Jason is joined by Tunisian Presidential candidate Olfa Hamdi: the founder and leader of the Third Republic Party of Tunisia and former CEO and Chairwoman of the Tunisian National Airline Tunisair. She and Jason investigate: the return of communism in Tunisia; President Qais Saied’s foreign policy alignment with Russia and China; pressures emanating from the southern border of NATO; Europe’s loss of the moral high ground, and the larger topics of the western foreign policy towards the Arab world and the battle to uphold democratic norms and checks and balances throughout the world.  

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Olfa Hamdi Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign in Tunisia: https://www.newswire.com/news/olfa-hamdi-announces-2024-presidential-campaign-in-tunisia-22169766 

Tunisia’s Backsliding Democracy Turns on Migrants: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/tunisia-elections-saied-ghannouchi-eu-migration-deal/  

Tunisia abandons two-state solution; courts Iran, China, and Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tunisia-abandons-two-state-solution-courts-iran-china-and-russia

Tunisia: Joint Statement Calling for End to Crackdown: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/18/tunisia-joint-statement-calling-end-crackdown  

Tunisia's 2024 election: What role will migration play?  https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521 

Young Tunisians Don’t Trust Kais Saied Anymore: https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521  

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Few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive.  Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane.  Yet, better late than never.   

On this Emergency cast: Jason and Alex discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis  

Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning 

Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/  

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To find out we’re joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells Jason about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

“Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo  

The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm  

Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf  

Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/  

Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/military-stakes-war-ukraine  

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Alex and Jason predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance. 

As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate  

Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt  

Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden  

For More on the Republican convention:  

As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified documents case against Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-documents-case-dismissed 

Alistair and Rory on how the Assassination attempt will affect the US election and how Rory survived an Assassination attempt against him in Iraq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0OwsWUbmOw  

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To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006.  

Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X  

Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964  

About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us 

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Despite the positive news of Britian’s Independence from Neo-Populists, the Enduring Disorder still prevails in many corners of these resplendent Isles. Jason tells of his undercover ethnographic field trip to Clacton-on-Sea, where he discovers that Reform are actually just the UK branch of the MAGA movement. Jason and Alex debate if: 1) Britain is in a phase of post-populism or proto-populism; 2) if the wave has crested or if Britain is just at an earlier stage in development than France or the USA; 3) What we can extrapolate about how the British electorate’s protest votes over Gaza or immigration bode for the American election; and 4) the power of the anti-system and anti-incumbency pressures and how these two factors might be the big difference btw the British and American elections -- as in the US both anti-system and anti-incumbency tendencies are working for the Republicans and against the Dems, whereas in the July 4 UK election the anti-system vote worked against the Tories and for Reform while the anti-incumbency vote worked for the Tories and against Labour. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack to get a recent clip of Jason on Al Jazeera English talking about Sir Keir’s approach to Gaza: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Oh Baby What a Night, the Two Matts on the Rise of the Lib Dems and Starmer’s flawless mastery of the first past the post system: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-two-matts/id1236139906?i=1000661232273 

Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email  

Listen to an potted biography of Sir Keir’s personal, professional, and intellectual journey: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/origin-story/id1624704966?i=1000660203835  

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In this episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the rather uninspiring election campaign so far. They analyse why Labour’s play-it-safe ‘Gareth Southgate approach’ is dissuading some voters; what a Starmer premiership means for the UK’s relationship with the EU (could some stealth mega-ordering be on the horizon?); and how David Lammy and Kier would almost certainly reignite an increasingly ‘special relationship’ with a Biden/Democrat-led US, or how they would struggle to navigate a ‘specially-challenged-relationship’ with a Trump-led White House. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Read In Picture-Postcard English Villages, a Seismic Political Shift Is Underway (on Jeremy Hunt) from the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/uk-election-jeremy-hunt.html 

Sir Keir Starmer must win. Only his government can shape the future we want to see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-general-election-2024-a-labour-victory-would-be-a-reason-for-hope  

And when will we get the results: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/21/general-election-timetable-when-what-time-results/  

Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email  

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Biden’s debate performance truly has massive implications for global order: it will embolden Pyongyang, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow; it creates a dangerous global vacuum with an absence of orderers for many months until the dust settles from the US election; and it leaves the democratic party with an urgent choice how to choreography the process of substituting Biden out for a younger candidate.  

To counterbalance Jason’s doom and gloom, he is joined by the ever up beat Glaswegian Jane Kinninmont who presents the view on Biden from the European capitals. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

As for what needs to happen now, here are what centrist Democrats  commentators are saying: Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html  

Frank Bruni: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/presidential-debate-trump-biden-2024.html  

Scores of cogent podcasts have emerged dissecting the optics of the debate and what the Dems have to do now. Here are a couple that we have found particularly useful: 

Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-presidential-debate.html 

The Rest is Politics US: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/advantage-trump-will-the-democrats-move-to-replace/id1743030473?i=1000660512902  

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That event ended the age of the traditional European empires, unleashed the mud and blood of the Great War, catalysed the fall of the Tsar and theoretical Marxism’s transformation into a totalitarian reality, and uncorked the nationalist genie that would lead to Hitler, the Second World War, the Holocaust, and later the Cold War. But did it also start our era of Enduring Disorder?  

Jason has certain contentions about the relative degree of order and disorder in the past -- notably that the years 1815-2011, in general, and 1946-2003, in specific, were periods characterized by global order and coherent hegemonic leadership -- but what if he is wrong? What if our global disorder didn’t start in 2003 but rather in 1914? 

In this special anniversary episode of Disorder, Tim Butcher tells Jason Pack about that fateful day exactly 110 years ago, what its disordering implications have been, how they have rippled down the years, and how modern history can be thought to have begun on that street corner in Sarajevo.  

Princip has been variously described as the `bloodiest assassin in history’ and ‘the most important person in the entire 20th century’… but in this episode, we are going to investigate if he is -- possibly more so than even Trump, Putin or the Ayatollahs -- our world’s true disorder-in-chief… As Tim explains, there is every reason to feel that the world of the Fin de Siècle was in fact more order than what came after it and that Princip is the author of the Disorder that we now inhabit. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Buy ‘The Trigger: Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War’ by Tim Butcher - https://www.amazon.com/Trigger-Hunting-Assassin-Brought-World/dp/0802123899/  

For more on Gavrilo Princip’s biography: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Gavrilo-Princip  

For more on Tim Butcher’s amazing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Butcher  

And for his great episode on our sister Pod, Battleground: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/121-how-the-2006-war-relates-to-gaza-today/id1617276298?i=1000640849125  

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But then again, is it in the long-term interest of most major states, citizens, and multinational corporations to work together to fight climate change? Or is it actually a rational calculation for certain states or corporations (like oil producing ones) to fight the creation of global coordination mechanisms and delay the energy transition and look to profit from the current high demand for the fossil fuels that they either export or produce? 

To discuss this issue, Jason Pack is joined by Olivia Azadegan and Hassan Damluji. 

Hassan Damluji is a British-Iraqi development expert and author of The Responsible Globalist: What Citizens of the World Can Learn from Nationalism. He is Co-founder of Global Nation, which focuses on improving international cooperation to combat climate change, pandemics, inequality and conflict. Olivia Azadegan is a British-Iranian, a fellow at the Women Leaders in Energy and Climate Change at the Atlantic Council and a winner of a Forbes 30 under 30 Award. 

The trio discuss: what is the role of the MENA region in fighting climate change, how can nations effectively coordinate to incentivise each other to act now, and why low hanging fruit like reducing methane emissions could help us Order the Disorder. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to our previous Climate Change focusing on COP episode at: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/57a09a9714313530fa16475c09396f7b  

For more on COP and collective action: 

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/12/13/in-a-first-cop28-targets-the-root-cause-of-climate-change  

How MENA countries face achieving climate resilience: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/04/assessing-climate-adaptation-plans-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa?lang=en  

Exploring the Energy Transition and Net-Zero Strategies of Gulf Oil Producers: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/exploring-energy-transition-and-net-zero-strategies-gulf-oil-producers  

A profile of our Queen for an episode: https://www.forbes.com/profile/olivia-azadegan/  

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In major interstate warfare, the defense retains its traditional advantages just as it did when Carl von Clausewitz penned his famous ‘On War’; in counter insurgency warfare separating insurgents from the shelter they receive from the local population remains as complex as when Mao Tze Dong wrote his ‘On Guerrilla Warfare’; and maintaining deterrence vis a vis one’s adversaries remains just as important as when Theodore Roosevelt suggested at the Minnesota State Fair in 1901 that one should ‘speak softly, and carry a big stick.’  

Drawing on his extensive research over decades, Martin presents a rare treat for Disorder listeners sharing his theories on deterrence, the imitative nature of war, what makes people willing to fight and die, the tragedy of the Palestinians, propaganda in War, and what can be done to help Israelis and Palestinians understand each other’s narratives better. Martin Van Creveld has written 33 books with fluidity and grace on topics as wide ranging as tank battles, feminism, human consciousness, Western philosophy, and terrorism. Martin has briefed every major Western military and his books ‘Command in War’; ‘Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton’; ‘The Transformation of War’; ‘The Sword and the Olive’ and ‘The Rise and Decline of the State’; ‘the Culture of War’; ‘Pussycats: The West and the Rest’ have changed how war is studied at military academies the world over. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

On supply in War: https://www.bookandsword.com/2021/07/03/some-thoughts-on-van-crevelds-supplying-war/ 

On airpower: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/24/books/review/book-review-the-age-of-airpower-by-martin-van-creveld.html 

Famous Martin Van Creveld Quotes: https://www.azquotes.com/author/3400-Martin_Van_Creveld  

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These days, many on the progressive left are outraged with Biden, Sunak, and Starmer’s centrism and demand a more humanitarian approach to Anglo-American foreign policy, but are those progressive voices sufficiently concerned about whether or not their preferred approach will lead to global order? Jason is joined by Professor Megan Stewart of the University of Michigan to discuss the implications of her co-authored essay in Foreign Affairs, ‘The Progressive Case Against Retrenchment’. 

Megan explains that progressive American scholars have largely characterized their ‘progressive vision of foreign policy’ as one where the US and the West restrains its exercise of hegemonic power abroad. She explains that for these progressive thinkers, the U.S. is the greatest source of imperialism, war, and insecurity. Megan explains why they think this way and Jason shares his feelings that this train of thought is a recipe for further disorder. Megan concludes with a dose of hard nose realism arguing that force MAY be justified on progressive grounds, and that a truly progressive foreign policy means grappling with inevitable tradeoffs and trying to minimize them.  

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Read Megan's co-authored article The Progressive Case for American Power

 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/progressive-case-american-power

For more on Megan: https://www.meganastewart.org/bio 

Her book Governing For Revolution: Social Transformation in Civil War:  https://www.meganastewart.org/book-project  

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In part 2 of Jason’s conversation with Tom Burgis, the duo talk about some of the biggest corruption cases in British history, how the complex story of post-Cold War deregulation has fuelled both global corruption and donations to the Tory party. This story has surprising implications for who has access to the British royal family and fundamentally who owns the truth. 

After the interview, Jason and Alex ‘Order the Disorder’ by discussing whether increased international co-ordination can curtail illegal money flows, and what a potential incoming Starmer-led Labour government could do domestically to prevent illicit gains from being recycled into campaign donations. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland 

Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy 

Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’  https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland 

For more on CMEC’s visit to rogue Libyan general Haftar: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/libyan-general-haftar-meets-uk-conservative-delegation  

For more on Mohamed Amersi and his liable suit against Charlotte Leslie, read Tom’s ‘Tory fundraising machine to come under scrutiny in UK court case’ in the FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/fcf90497-e283-4645-b18f-d95d35ff3fcd  

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To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Tom Burgis -- award winning investigative journalist, and author of Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth. In this episode (Part 1 of 2), the duo discuss how laws and decisions in the City of London and Washington, DC actually enable kleptocratic behaviour in places like Nigeria and Kazakhstan. Plus: why  are skilled middlemen and fixers so critical in enabling transnational corruption? And what kind of systemic risks do such dirty dealings abroad and the offshoring of illicit gains pose to our own politics and security? 

To Order the Disorder, Alex Hall Hall joins Jason to analyse how the conduits of mega corruption is actually at the centre of our post-Cold War global story, and not at its periphery. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Get Tom’s book Cuckooland: Where the Rich Own the Truth https://tomburgis.com/cuckooland  

Read the New Stateman’s, ‘Britain’s new oligarchy - Tom Burgis’s Cuckooland shows how the power to shape our politics is available to the highest bidder.’  https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2024/03/britain-new-oligarchy-tom-burgis-cuckooland 

Read PodBible’s interview with Alex and Jason here: https://podbiblemag.com/disorder-giving-order-to-the-global-enduring-disorder/  

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So why do so many governments seem obsessed with national fertility rates? Should they be in the business of encouraging more people to have children – and if yes, what kind of incentives do or don’t work? Are their coherent international regulations governing adoption and surrogacy and if not, why not? Is the domain of demography another realm of coordination failures and enduring disorder? 

To start this week’s episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the overall demographic state of our planet and why there can be so much traffic at the Holland Tunnel even amidst failing fertility rates. Alex talks about her own IVF journey and the thought process that led to the eventual adoption of her kids and she discusses why governments need holistic approaches to fertility rather than the mere use of cash incentives. Jason rails about the glaring need for global governance to provide universally acknowledged rules concerning adoption, surrogacy, and to deter the use of those pesky chemicals in plastics that reduce men’s sperm counts. 

To close the show, Alex and Jason take some listener questions. They cover: 1) Could Russia implode when Putin loses in Ukraine? 2) Should Britain finally create a written constitution? 3) Are voices that point out western hypocrisy without proposing solutions actually spreading disorder? And 4) All things considered (meaning holidays, NHS, and public transport) is one better compensated in the UK or US for the same work? 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to Birthrates Are Plummeting Worldwide. Why? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show/id1548604447?i=1000649683423  

Hear Are we living through an infertility epidemic? https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000650753528  

Listen to The Guardian’s The chilling policy to cut Greenland’s high birth rate https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000652922783  

Check out Who screwed millennials: a generation left behind – Full Story podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000650954693  

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To get a native-born insider’s view on the election, Jason is joined by his Scottish doppelganger (Jane Kinninmont) to discuss what the election could mean for UK foreign policy, post-July 4th Britian’s ability to be an orderer on the global stage, and also what this election timing means for developments North of Hadrian’s wall. 

The duo discuss: alternate theories as to why this election timing came about, where the electoral battlelines are being drawn (solidly in the centre ground – especially on foreign policy), if the electoral competition is not focused on wildly different worldviews but on competence, and the potentially disordering role of anti-system players like Corbyn, Galloway, Farage, and Richard Tice.   

The show ends with Jason putting forward his mystical grand unified theory of how Irish, Italian, Israeli, and British elections effect US elections. You wouldn’t want to miss it. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links: 

For a quick overview of the mechanics of how Sunak’s team called the General Election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rr73w103vo  

For Arthur Snell’s recent substack: ‘Is this why he called it now?, An excellent new podcast gave me thought of a possible reason for Sunak's timing: https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/is-this-why-he-called-it-now  

Inflation in UK now lower than in EU or US and yet GBP to USD still strong: 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-election-date-lifts-fog-over-promising-market-recovery-2024-05-23/ 

How a potential disordering disaster has been averted: BEN ANSELL, in the FT on ‘Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangers’: https://www.ft.com/content/176d4b78-1e9a-45c9-8c3c-a74e758ec22f 

David Lammy on Labour’s Foreign Policy vision: https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/what-labours-foreign-policy  

Labour saying things on defence and security spending that appeal to US Republicans  and a generally more isolationist US – see Elbridge Colby praising David Lammy: https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-ally-hits-out-at-david-cameron-for-lecturing-us/  

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This episode starts with a short emergency-cast about the crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter due to fog. Jason briefly investigates if the death of this ‘disorderer-in-chief’ is likely to bring any more order to the Middle East region, before rejoining our regularly scheduled programming about Ukraine. 

Over the last two weeks, Russia has been gaining territory in Ukraine’s northeast, while the shelling of Kharkiv has progressively increased. This does not come as a surprise. The Ukrainians have been on the back foot militarily since their 2023 Summer offensive stalled. 

What is the strategic logic of Russia’s recent advance? Jason is joined by acclaimed military historian Saul David. He co-hosts our sister podcast within the Goalhanger network, Battleground. Saul and Jason debate the strategic logic behind Russia’s recent moves – proposing three alternative theses for Russia’s actions: 1) Putin is trying to create a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine; 2) the current offensive is a faint to draw Ukrainian troops to the north prior to a Russian attack in Donbass; 3) Russia is trying to turn Kharkiv into Mariupol, Grozny, or Aleppo, that is to say to aerially decimate the city and inflict tremendous humanitarian suffering on its populace without any hope of actually conquering it.   

After sketching a broad-brush stroke picture of the tactical and strategic situation on the ground, Saul and Jason discuss how new shipments of Western armaments will affect the current fighting; recent Russian attempts to assassinate President Zelensky; if the murder of Navalny has changed battlefield dynamics at all; the role of China and the ongoing Gaza war upon the fighting in Ukraine; and what are the relevant historical parallels to the current fighting and what lessons they hold for orderers. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

For a quick overview of Iranian President Raisi’s death and what happens next: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/world/europe/raisi-iran-instability.html  

Listen to Goalhanger’s excellent Battleground Pod here: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground  

Get Saul’s Sunday Times bestselling book, Sky Warriors: British Airborne Forces in the Second World War, here: 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Sky-Warriors-British-Airborne-Forces/dp/0008522162 

Learn more about what is going on: 

Is the Russian offensive a faint? Read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/16/russias-victory-day-campaign-just-ran-into-a-wall-of-ukrainian-mechanized-troops/  

More on Tactics and Armaments affecting development in Kharkiv: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/15/russia-kharkiv-offensive-ukraine-vovchansk-weapons-biden/   

For more on Blinken’s visit to Kyiv: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/ukraine-zelenskiy-calls-for-more-air-defences-as-blinken-arrives-in-kyiv 

And on the Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky:  https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-1897852 

Find out more on Ukraine's will to survive and defend Kharkiv from Jade McGlynn: 

Her recent Pod with Arthur Snell:  

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656?i=1000653710733 

And her Dispatch from Kharkiv commemorating the 2 year anniversary of the war: https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/despatch-from-kharkiv/ 

Finally, Jason and Bill Browder’s ideas on the need for a seizure of Frozen Russian asset via Navalny acts: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/what-makes-a-martyr-alexei-navalny-shines-a-light-on-vladimir-putin-s-evil-tyranny/ar-BB1ja4If  

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Under the bill, NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations "bearing the interests of a foreign power”. The law has been met with mass protests across the country.

So what does the passing of this bill mean for Georgia’s hope to become an EU and NATO member? What could it mean for the countries elections later this year? And how should the West respond?

To find out, Alex Hall Hall (who served as Ambassador to Georgia), speaks to Ia Meurmishvili. An international journalist based in Washington, DC. She a former Managing Editor at Voice of America's Georgian Service, where she hosted the weekly TV show, "View from Washington."  She is a frequent commentator and moderator in international discussions about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the Caucasus and Eurasia region.

Twitter: @DisorderShow

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/

Producer: George McDonagh

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn

Show Notes Links

Read Alex’s article How the Georgian ‘Foreign Agents Bill’ May Cost it Everything its People Have Ever Dreamed Of – And Benefit No One But Russia https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/02/how-the-georgian-foreign-agents-bill-may-cost-it-everything-its-people-have-ever-dreamed-of-and-benefit-no-one-but-russia/

Georgia approves controversial 'foreign agent' law, sparking more protests https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69007465

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But should all our politicians just be more empathetic? Actually electorally that might not work.  Do Democrats actually want to see Biden empathise with Speaker Johnson blocking aid to Ukraine? Would Labour voters accept it if Kier Starmer had sympathy with Boris Johnson lying to parliament? And does the Israeli electorate want a politician who has empathy for why Hamas committed the atrocities of Oct 7?  

So what does empathy really mean in geopolitics? And how can it actually be put into practice in today’s politics? Most crucially how could a genuinely empathetic politics be useful in trying to order the disorder?  

To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Dr Claire Yorke. She is an author and academic whose work explores the role and limitations of empathy and emotions in international relations, diplomacy, strategy, and political leadership. She is currently a Senior Lecturer at the Australian War College in Canberra. Jason and Claire discuss: what exactly is empathy? Can or should you empathise with someone that you fundamentally disagree with? And could empathetic leadership help us Order the Disorder? 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Read Claire’s essay, Is empathy a strategic imperative? https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800  

Read Claire Yorke: "Personal and Political Emotions in the Mind of the Diplomat.". https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2022.2152800  

Claire’s website: https://claireyorke.me  

Find out more about Empathy Week – to help grow empathy in the classroom and create a new generation who understands its value - https://www.empathy-week.com  

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All these countries American allies are thinking of nuclearizing as they have a growing fear that they might not be able to rely on the US if the chips are down. All of this talk leads us to wonder will nuclear weapons ever be used and are nuclear threats and discussions of nuclearizing important even if the weapons will never be used? 

In this episode of Disorder, Jason Pack talks to Jane Kinninmont. Jane is a peace and security expert with two decades of experience covering the Middle East, at the Economist Intelligence Unit and Chatham House. She is now with the European Leadership Network, which brings together more than 400 current, former and future European leaders to reduce nuclear risks and prevent conflict. The duo discuss: what are the risks of countries like South Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Is the current non-proliferation treaty regime up to scratch? And does nuclear non-proliferation actually work? 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different: https://thebulletin.org/2024/03/germany-debates-nuclear-weapons-again-but-now-its-different/  

Read Keir Starmer: Labour commitment to nuclear weapons unshakeable: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790435  

For more on Jane’s background and work: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/person/jane-kinninmont/  

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In part 2 of his conversation with Dr Armen Sarkissian - Armenia’s former president and prime minister – Jason discusses Armen’s book, ‘The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World’. They look at how: 1) successful small states could use their growing economic power to promote stability, 2) how Armenia could leverage its most unique strategic resource, its diaspora, and 3) why bringing together small states into an international club – the S20 – could actually make a big difference in helping to Order the Disorder. 

In the Ordering the Disorder segment, Jason and Alex discuss whether we’re in a world where smallness is an asset, how NATO and the EU should respond to Armenia’s geopolitical tilt towards the West, and whether the S20 could present novel ways to Order the Disorder. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Orderers, If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/ 

Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/ 

Armenia’s Westward shift and the new aid package: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Armenias-Shift-West-Draws-Ire-from-Moscow-and-Baku.html  

From the Washington Post: A cry for the refugees of emptied Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘We are nobody’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/11/david-ignatius-nagorno-karabakh-refugees-azerbaijan-enclave/  

On the Mayhem in the Georgian Parliament: https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1779820924734206064  

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In the first of a two-part series, Jason is joined by Dr Armen Sarkissian, a world-renowned theoretical physicist, diplomat, and businessman. He was Armenia’s president from 2018 to 2022 and also its prime minister from 1996 to 1997. In their interview, they discuss the century old genocide, the novel round of ethnic cleansing that happened seven short months ago in Nagorno-Karabakh, how in the 1990s Armenia could have forged a peace deal from a position of strength with Azerbaijan but missed the opportunity, and why the legacy and implications of the Armenian genocide have been largely forgotten but are essential to maintaining any form of global order.  

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Get Dr Armen Sarkissian’s book The Small States Club: How Small Smart Powers Can Save the World - https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/the-small-states-club/  

For the Encyclopedia Brittanica Definition of the Armenian Genocide: https://www.britannica.com/event/Armenian-Genocide/Genocide  

Armenia Under Siege: https://www.newsweek.com/armenia-under-siege-opinion-1889040  

On Calouste Gulbenkian as Mr 5%, and the wealthiest man in the world in his day: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jan/03/mr-five-per-cent-calouste-gulbenian-worlds-richest-man   

Controversial land sale puts Jerusalem Armenians on edge: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65876162  

If you are moved to help the plight of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh we recommend you donate to 'The Tumo Foundation 501(c)3' for Artsakh Teens here: https://armenia.tumo.org/t4at/

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To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding.

Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities.

Twitter: @DisorderShow

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/

Producer: James Hodgson

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn

Show Notes Links

For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36

For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/

For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/

And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656

Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45

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China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching? 

To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  

For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html  

Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article 

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/  

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Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him. 

To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict.  They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory.  

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news 

The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/  

Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/ 

And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews:  https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/  

Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec  

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Jason is joined by Laura Cretney: a Yemen expert and founder of Pink Jinn, an online marketplace focused on supporting small businesses and communities affected by conflict in the MENA region. 

The pair provide a primer on how we got to here: Who are the Houthis and how did this ‘rag tag militia’ from the mountains end up with so much leverage over the global economy?  

They also unpick the implications of the Houthis: Are the attacks on global shipping actually changing the course of the conflict in Gaza? And what does the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the competing social media narratives emerging around it, tell us about the regional and global order (or lack thereof)? 

Lastly, the pair try to Order the Disorder by debating the role Diaspora communities in the US and UK can play in providing expertise and human networks to help improve Western policymaking towards the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Gaza, and throughout the MENA region. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Hear our previous episode on Yemen here

Background on the Dawning of a new age of eco-terrorism here

To find out about the recent attacks on British shipping visit here

Read about the impact on Israel here

And the impact on the global economy here

And why designating the Houthis as terrorist may backfire can be read here

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In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, host of the Behind the Lines podcast and former British High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago to discuss the multiplicity of interconnected roles Caribbean nations play within the Global Enduring Disorder. The pair discuss: Haiti’s recent gang uprising, the high homicide rates throughout the Caribbean, the historical role of the Caribbean as the first truly globalized region in human history, why former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands are increasingly turning to money laundering and drug trafficking, and how the legacy of the sugar trade has left societal scars in the region that are still felt to this day. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack here

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Read the report, ‘Homicide and Organised Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean here

Read more about Haiti here 

Discover more about Andrew Fahie’s drug case here

Read ‘The Crime Conundrum in the Caribbean’ here

Buy Arthur's, How Britain Broke the World here

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Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

For the origins of Enshittification visit here

Enshittification as word of the year here  

Read more of Alex’s writing at Byline Times  

And Jason’s at his website

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To discuss, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Indrani Bagchi – one of India’s most respected foreign policy journalists, a former Associate Editor for the Times of India, and currently Chief Executive Officer of the Ananta Centre. The duo discuss India’s approach to Russia, China, the UK, and the Israel-Gaza conflict. At the interview’s conclusion, while trying to Order the Disorder, an incensed Jason butts in with his strong personal hunch that India has much latent ordering potential but that Modi has deliberately squandered it in pursuit of his divisive and disordering neopopulist policies. 

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Show Notes Links 

Find out more about India’s wealth income inequality from TIME here

Read about Kejriwal’s arrest here

For more on India’s election here 

Learn about how Modi’s Neo-Populist consolidation here

More on the arrest of opposition politicians here

And about the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada here

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This week we celebrate the six-month anniversary of Disorder, by talking with a guest from our very first episode, the man who inspired this podcast, Brian Klaas. Brian’s page-turning new book ‘Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters’, is not only a dynamic read, it has much to say about whether our lives, our politics, and our relationships can ever be truly ordered. In the conversation, Brian and Jason agree disagreeably about the following issues: do most people believe that good things happen to good people, that one’s lot in life is somehow earned, and that ‘things happen for a reason’? Can some disorder be good in our personal lives? Is Order a spiritual rather than a rational virtue?  

Twitter: @DisorderShow 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  

Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn