Over the past week, we saw renewed efforts to restart negotiations—including a Pakistan-backed diplomatic push—but no meaningful progress. Ceasefires continue to be announced and collapse just as quickly.

At the same time, something more significant may be taking shape beneath the surface:

👉 The “third way” between escalation and accepting Iran’s rise may no longer exist.

• Why recent diplomatic efforts—including talks involving Pakistan—failed to gain traction
• How Iran may be building a pathway around the blockade through Pakistan, Russia, and Oman
• What it means for Iran to emerge as a potential “fourth center of world power”
• Why shifting alliances in the Gulf could reshape the balance of power
• The concept of a growing power vacuum as U.S. influence declines
• What escalating coordination between regional and nuclear powers could signal

This conflict is no longer just about military escalation.

It’s about who fills the power vacuum—and how the global system reorganizes around it.

• Whether Pakistan deepens its role as a land and economic outlet for Iran
• Continued coordination between Iran, Russia, and regional partners
• Any shift from demonstration-level force to direct strikes on infrastructure
• Signs that Gulf states become direct targets of pressure or instability

New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time.

Pape publishes ongoing updates and frameworks on this conflict via Substack.

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

🎯 In this episode:🧠 Key takeaway:📊 What to watch next:🎧 Follow the series:🔗 Follow Robert Pape’s analysis:📡 About the show:

In this episode, Scott sits down with U.S. Army Special Forces Major John Kowalski to break down what that means for the future of conflict—and whether America is ready for it.

Drawing on real-world examples from Ukraine, Iranian-backed proxy forces, and conflicts around the globe, Kowalski argues that unmanned systems are not just another capability—they are fundamentally changing how wars are fought. In some cases, they are already responsible for the majority of casualties and are allowing low-resource actors to punch far above their weight.

The question is what comes next.

For decades, U.S. Army Special Forces have operated as 12-man teams built around advising and enabling partner forces. But if future conflicts are dominated by drones in the air, on the ground, and at sea, that model may no longer be enough.

Kowalski makes the case that Special Forces must adapt—structurally, not just tactically—including the potential need for new roles, new training pipelines, and a fundamental rethink of how teams are organized and deployed.

This conversation explores:
– Why drone warfare is accelerating faster than most militaries can adapt
– How non-state actors are using cheap systems to create strategic effects
– What the U.S. is getting right—and where it may still be behind
– How Special Forces could evolve to remain relevant in future conflicts

If the current trajectory continues, the next major conflict won’t look like Iraq or Afghanistan.

It will look very different.

And the time to adapt is now.

Over the past week, multiple ceasefires were announced—and just as quickly fell apart. At the same time, the U.S. and Iran have continued escalating pressure through a de facto blockade dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz.

But the most important takeaway from this conversation is more fundamental:

👉 This is not a negotiation. It’s power politics.

• Why ceasefires and “deals” keep collapsing almost immediately
• The enforcement problem in international politics—and why agreements don’t hold
• How both the U.S. and Iran are effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz
• Why the conflict is shifting toward a longer war dynamic
• How escalation signals are being used to demonstrate credibility
• What potential retaliation against U.S. naval forces could look like

In international conflict, there is no court to enforce agreements.

Every concession can create new vulnerability—and that makes real compromise extremely difficult.

• Any direct attacks on U.S. naval vessels operating near the blockade line
• Further escalation tied to strikes on infrastructure (power, bridges)
• Whether negotiations resume—or continue to break down
• Signs the conflict is settling into a sustained long-war dynamic

New episodes released weekly tracking how this conflict evolves in real time.

Pape publishes ongoing frameworks and updates on this conflict via Substack. https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

At the Water’s Edge delivers practitioner-level insight into national security and geopolitics—bridging academic theory with how conflicts actually unfold in the real world.

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Dr. Colin P. Clarke, Executive Director of the Soufan Center, to break down how terrorism is evolving—and why the next phase may be more dangerous than the last.

They explore Iran’s strategy of using proxy organizations like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and why dismantling centralized control could actually increase the risk of more fragmented, unpredictable, and violent terrorist activity.

The conversation also covers:

• Why today’s terrorism threat is more decentralized and complex than during the Global War on Terror
• How terrorist groups are funding themselves through organized crime and global networks
• The role of private military companies like the Wagner Group in fueling instability
• Why ISIS and its affiliates remain a persistent global threat
• How great power competition is intersecting with terrorism in places like the Middle East and Africa
• The risk of escalation between nuclear-armed states like India and Pakistan

This is a practitioner-focused discussion on where terrorism stands today—and what policymakers, operators, and analysts may be missing about what comes next.

Colin P. Clarke X/Twitter: @ColinPCarke

Soufan Center Intel Brief: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief/

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly speaks with Samuel Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses, one of the leading analysts tracking Russian military adaptation and the role of drones and emerging technology on the battlefield.

They discuss how Western analysts misunderstood Russian capabilities before the 2022 invasion, how the massive proliferation of small drones has made the battlefield increasingly transparent, and why both Russia and Ukraine have turned to commercial technology and civil society to sustain combat operations.

The conversation also explores the early role of artificial intelligence in the war, how soldiers on both sides are modifying technology at the tactical edge, and what lessons the United States military should be learning from the conflict.

As China, Iran, and other major powers study the war closely, Ukraine has become a real-time laboratory for the future of warfare—and a warning about how quickly modern conflicts can evolve beyond anyone’s expectations.

• The battlefield is becoming transparent.
The widespread use of small drones means that forces operating near the front line are increasingly visible, forcing militaries to rethink mobility, concealment, and survivability.

• Commercial technology is now part of warfare.
Both Russia and Ukraine have relied heavily on off-the-shelf drones, radios, and other commercial components, often sourced through civil society networks.

• Civil society has become a wartime logistics system.
Volunteer groups and online fundraising campaigns have helped supply frontline units with critical equipment—from drones to communications gear.

• AI is beginning to appear on the battlefield.
Artificial intelligence is being used to process massive quantities of battlefield data and assist with target identification, though fully autonomous systems remain limited.

• The world’s militaries are watching closely.
China, Iran, North Korea, and others are studying the war in Ukraine to understand how drones, electronic warfare, and battlefield adaptation are reshaping modern conflict.

Ojeda spent 24 years in the U.S. Army, much of that time at Fort Bragg, before returning to his hometown in southern West Virginia, where he served as a state senator and became known for his outspoken populist style of politics. In this conversation, we explore how military service shapes his political worldview, the challenges veterans face when transitioning to civilian life, and the role Congress should play in overseeing the executive branch during times of geopolitical tension.

The discussion covers everything from VA bureaucracy and rural economic decline to war powers, foreign policy, and populism in both political parties.

While the conversation touches on highly political issues, the goal of this episode is not endorsement but understanding—examining how a combat veteran running for Congress views the current strategic and political moment in the United States.

• Transitioning from military service to civilian life

• The VA disability system and challenges veterans face navigating it

• Why Ojeda believes veterans should run for public office

• Campaigning as a populist Democrat in a Republican-leaning district

• The role of grassroots campaigning vs. corporate PAC funding

• Congressional oversight of the executive branch

• War powers and constitutional limits on presidential authority

• How foreign policy decisions affect military communities

• Trade policy, manufacturing, and the economic challenges facing rural America

• Working across the aisle in Congress

Richard Neece Ojeda II is a retired U.S. Army major and former West Virginia state senator. During his military career he served in multiple deployments during the Global War on Terror. After leaving the Army, he entered politics and became known for his outspoken advocacy on behalf of working-class communities and veterans.

He is currently running for Congress in North Carolina’s 9th District.

Scott Kelly is a former U.S. Army Special Forces officer and the host of At the Water’s Edge, a podcast examining national security, geopolitics, and the strategic challenges shaping the world today from a practitioner’s perspective.

If you enjoy the show, please consider:

• Following the podcast

• Leaving a rating or review

• Sharing the episode with someone interested in national security or public service

The views expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the host or the podcast

But the larger question remains:

What happens next inside Iran?

In this follow-up conversation, Scott Kelly is joined again by Zolal Habibi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine how one major opposition movement views this moment—and what they believe comes after.

This episode explores the practical, political, and strategic dimensions of regime change in real time.

• Whether war strengthens or weakens the Iranian regime internally

• The NCRI’s announcement of a provisional government

• Claims of resistance activity inside Iran

• The formation of a potential “Liberation Army”

• Opposition unity and tensions with the monarchist camp

• Kurdish autonomy vs. territorial integrity

• The risk of state collapse and “Libya scenarios”

• Whether foreign coordination is necessary—or dangerous

• What a post-regime transition would actually require

• Does war produce a rally-around-the-flag effect inside Iran?

• What would signal real regime fracture versus narrative momentum?

• Can armed opposition movements coordinate without fragmenting?

• What safeguards would prevent a cycle of revenge or state failure?

• What confidence can be offered that Iran would not become the next failed state?

There are multiple competing Iranian opposition groups with different visions for Iran’s political future.

Zolal Habibi represents one of those organizations. Invitations have been extended to other factions—including representatives from the monarchist camp—to present their perspectives in future episodes.

The claims expressed in this conversation are those of the guest and her organization and may not be independently verifiable in real time.

Regime change is often discussed as a headline.

Much less often is it examined as a messy, structural process involving institutions, armed actors, coalition dynamics, and governance capacity.

This episode focuses on those mechanics—not just the rhetoric.

We explore how 20 years of uncontested air dominance reshaped American warfighting culture — from precision targeting in dense urban battle spaces to the rise of persistent ISR and smartphone-level situational awareness tools at the platoon level.

Key topics include:

• How close air support evolved during the surge years

• The relationship between ground commanders, JTACs, and pilots

• Risk mitigation culture in the post-9/11 wars

• Whether technological dominance created institutional dependency

• NATO’s role at the tactical edge of the fight

• Jointness as one of GWOT’s enduring legacies

• The political-military divide and the importance of clearly defined end states

We also discuss what must be unlearned from GWOT as the U.S. military prepares for potential large-scale conflict in contested environments — where air superiority and persistent coverage may not be guaranteed.

This episode is a candid reflection on tactical excellence, institutional adaptation, and strategic ambiguity.

Ethan Brown is a former U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) specialist who served 11 years, including time embedded with the 75th Ranger Regiment as part of Air Force Special Tactics. He is the author of the JTAC trilogy, a detailed examination of close air support and air power integration during the post-9/11 wars.

Visual Friendlies: Tally Target

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Subscribe to At the Water’s Edge for weekly long-form conversations on national security, civil-military relations, and emerging strategic challenges.

The conversation explores recent protest activity, internet shutdowns, disputed casualty figures, and the role of so-called “resistance units” operating inside Iran. Scott presses on difficult questions: When do protests evolve into insurgency? How durable is the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus? What would political transition actually look like? And how realistic are competing visions — from secular republic to monarchy restoration?

Topics include:

• The significance of Tehran’s bazaar strikes

• Nationwide protest dynamics and generational shifts

• Internet blackouts and information verification challenges

• Claims of organized “resistance units” operating inside Iran

• Casualty reporting and the difficulty of independent confirmation

• The historical designation and delisting of the MEK

• Armed resistance and the “right to resist” debate

• Competing opposition visions: republic vs. monarchy

• Kurdish autonomy and territorial integrity

• U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic

• What a post-regime transition plan might entail

  
  

  This episode presents the perspective of an organized Iranian opposition figure. Claims regarding casualties, arrests, and internal dynamics are contested and difficult to independently verify under blackout conditions. The purpose of this discussion is analytical: to examine how resistance movements conceptualize escalation, legitimacy, and political transition.

  
  

This discussion does not advocate for any particular faction. Instead, it examines how one organized resistance constituency conceptualizes escalation, legitimacy, and regime change — and where those assumptions warrant scrutiny.

Future episodes will examine regime durability, fragmentation risks, and competing analytical perspectives.

Guest: Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek, U.S. Air Force | PhD Political Science | prolific writer on strategy, security assistance, and the defense industrial base

What this episode is about
America’s military can execute at breathtaking speed—but sustaining a long war is a different game. In this conversation, Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek breaks down why the U.S. defense industrial base struggles to surge production, why supply chains are more opaque than most policymakers admit, and why “resilience” can’t be wished into existence with slogans and PowerPoint.

Key topics

• Why the U.S. can be “tactically awesome” for a short fight—then hit limits in missiles, munitions, and sustainment

• The “black box” problem: the government often lacks visibility into tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers

• Why throwing money at production doesn’t automatically remove chokepoints (casings, propellant, and other bottlenecks)

• The mine-to-missile reality: minerals, refining, machining, certification, and how China shows up at multiple points in the chain

• The tradeoff between efficiency (markets) and resilience (surge capacity)—and why the market won’t fund resilience “as a charity”

• Continuing resolutions, short funding cycles, and how uncertainty drives small suppliers out of the defense ecosystem

• The workforce constraint: skilled trades, machinists, and why you “can’t Zoom-call the bolts into a submarine”

• Strategic infrastructure beyond the obvious: power grids, pipelines, and data centers as a bedrock of modern command-and-control

• Why “digital warfighting” runs into practical limits: electricity, cooling, transformers, copper, and long lead times

Notable quotes

• “We can do great war stuff for about a week. Anything longer than that gets really hard.”

• “Resilience isn’t something the market provides out of charity.”

• “You can’t Zoom-call the nuts and bolts of making a submarine.”

• “The defense industrial base is a black box—and that’s terrifying in a crisis.”

Referenced reading

• Foreign Policy: “How to Fix America’s Broken Arsenal” (Matisek and co-authors)

• Additional related work discussed: resilience and industrial base commentary (FPRI)

Follow / connect

• Scott Kelly — Host, At the Water’s Edge

• Lt Col Jahara “Franky” Matisek — USAF, scholar-practitioner on strategy and the defense industrial base

Call to action
If this episode made you rethink “deterrence,” share it with one person in defense tech, infrastructure, or policy—and drop a comment with the single chokepoint you think would break first in a major-power conflict.

Key Takeaways

• Why how we treat the GWOT generation directly impacts future recruiting and readiness.

• What the MBV is (and isn’t): “half an MBA,” built to give senior leaders the core business foundation.

• The underrated value of grad school for vets: time, perspective, and exposure to “what’s possible.”

• Why in-person cohort/community can be a force multiplier during the 1–2 year transition window.

• How veterans should think about GI Bill ROI (and why everyone wants your benefits dollars).

• The veteran “secret sauce” businesses miss: disciplined initiative + relentless after-action review mindset.

• Why the chain of command often gives well-intentioned but wrong transition advice—and how to recalibrate.

• “A PhD in the human condition”: the leadership dataset vets carry into any organization.

  
  

  Quotes

• “Transition is a process, not an event… it takes about two years.”

• “Graduate business education exposes you to what’s in the realm of possible—and what you don’t want to do.”

• “If you’re spending other people’s money, they won’t give it to you unless you know how to run a business.”

• “Veterans bring disciplined initiative—the secret sauce of the American military.”

• “You have a PhD in the human condition.”

  
  

  Chapters

• 00:00 Why veteran transition is a national security issue

• 03:16 MG Matt Smith’s background + what the MBV is

• 06:58 Classroom dynamics: experience, discipline, and veteran accountability

• 13:12 2001 vs now: how academia’s view of veterans has changed

• 15:43 The “three buckets” of MBA value (skills, translation, time) + what’s missing

• 19:52 Timing grad school with retirement + the power of an in-person support system

• 24:28 “It’s okay not to know”—transition goals and changing plans

• 29:41 GI Bill ROI, reality checks, and why location/industry matters

• 31:03 “Business as a language course” + the PMP as translation

• 34:13 Doing anything you want (and failing fast) after service

• 39:49 “PhD in the human condition” and why vets don’t see their own value

• 44:15 Advice to employers: how to actually utilize veteran talent

• 47:14 MG Smith’s personal transition at the one-year mark

• 49:29 What Emory could do next + why society needs vets at places like Emory

• 54:22 Closing thoughts: GWOT ended quietly; transition didn’t—plus gratitude to Vietnam vets

In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott Kelly is joined by former Air Force pilots, Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) veterans, and military scholars to take on one of the most contentious debates in U.S. defense policy: should the A-10 Warthog be retired?

Drawing on combat experience from Iraq and Afghanistan, Pentagon planning, and military history from World War II to Ukraine, the panel makes a clear case that retiring the A-10 isn’t about obsolescence—it’s about priorities. They break down what close air support (CAS) actually requires, why multi-role fighters like the F-35 cannot replace a dedicated CAS platform, and what is lost when institutional knowledge and CAS culture disappear.

This is a ground-truth conversation about war as it is actually fought—low, slow, close, and unforgiving—and why the A-10 still matters in an era of great-power competition.

• Steve Call — Former B-52 pilot, Pentagon strategist, military historian, author of Danger Close

• Nathan Bachand — Former TACP, Air National Guard, PhD historian, founder of the TACP Foundation

• Conan Higgins — Former TACP with 25 years of service, former law enforcement officer, PhD in international law, author on crisis leadership

• What the A-10 was actually designed to do—and why that mission still exists

• The difference between dedicated CAS and “CAS as a checkbox”

• Why speed, stealth, and altitude don’t replace loiter time, visibility, and survivability

• The limits of the F-16 and F-35 in real close-air-support scenarios

• CAS as an offensive enabler, not just a defensive backstop

• Lessons from World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Taiwan war games

• Why drones and light attack aircraft are not true A-10 replacements

• Institutional incentives, budget priorities, and the Air Force–Army divide

• What ground troops lose when CAS culture disappears

• Close Air Support is not obsolete—it has been deprioritized

• No existing aircraft replaces the A-10’s combination of survivability, loiter time, and firepower

• CAS requires people, culture, and repetition, not just sensors and software

• Future wars will still put soldiers in the mud—and they will still need air support they can trust

• “You can atomize terrain from the air forever—but if you want to keep it, you put young men in the mud.”

• “The sound of the A-10 gun is the hand of God saying: don’t worry, I’ve got you.”

• “If the F-35 had outperformed the A-10, you’d already know about it.”

• CAS — Close Air Support

• TACP — Tactical Air Control Party

• JTAC — Joint Terminal Attack Controller

• FACA — Forward Air Controller (Airborne)

Takeaways

Veterans face significant challenges when transitioning to civilian life.

The Wounded Warrior Project plays a vital role in supporting veterans.

Finding purpose is crucial for veterans after service.

The VA system can be complex and difficult to navigate.

Community support is essential for veterans' mental health.

Veterans should not feel alone in their struggles.

There is a need for better mental health resources for veterans.

The stigma around seeking help is decreasing.

Veterans are valuable members of society and should be supported.

Trustworthy organizations are essential for helping veterans.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Personal Connections

03:13 Wounded Warrior Project: Mission and Impact

04:11 Transitioning from Military to Civilian Life

07:15 Challenges Veterans Face in Reintegration

10:03 Finding Purpose After Service

13:17 Navigating the VA System

16:14 Bureaucratic Challenges and Solutions

23:12 The Importance of Supporting Veterans

25:18 Transitioning from War: The Future of Veteran Support

27:56 The Ongoing Battle: Mental Health and Suicide Among Veterans

33:23 Finding Purpose: The Path to Healing

36:39 Addressing Mental Health: The Need for Immediate Support

46:31 Navigating the Veteran Service Organization Ecosystem

53:08 A Message to Veterans: You're Not Alone

takeaways

• Trade is not just about money; it involves various stakeholders.
• The government plays a crucial role in negotiating trade agreements.
• Political changes can significantly impact trade negotiations.
• Cultural factors are essential in understanding negotiation dynamics.
• The U.S. has shifted from a focus on economic prosperity to economic security in trade policy.
• China is a formidable economic rival that requires a strategic approach.
• Working with allies is crucial in addressing the China challenge.
• NAFTA's impact shows the need for careful consideration of trade agreements.
• Trade policies should be holistic, addressing both international and domestic concerns.
• The future of trade will involve navigating complex international relationships.

• Navigating the Complex World of Trade
• The Role of Government in Trade Negotiations

• "Trade is not just about money."
• "Trade negotiations take years to develop."
• "Economic security is becoming a priority."

Chapters

00:00 Understanding Trade Negotiation

02:26 Negotiation Tactics and Challenges

07:25 Political Dynamics in Trade Negotiations

14:05 Evolution of U.S. Trade Policy

19:52 Economic Security vs. National Security

28:41 The Role of Allies in Trade

33:38 Lessons from NAFTA and Future Trade Agreements

38:08 Advice for U.S. Trade Policy

• Take every call; it sharpens your skills.
• The military teaches accountability and communication.
• Viral moments can lead to unexpected opportunities.
• Networking is crucial, especially for veterans.
• Preparation is key for public speaking engagements.
• Embrace the chaos of media attention.
• Always protect your personal information online.
• Unexpected connections can lead to great opportunities.
• The importance of community support for veterans.
• Humor can be a great way to connect with others.

Chapters

00:00 A Dog's Emergency and a Viral Moment

13:53 Media Attention and Career Opportunities

16:34 Preparing for the Tonight Show

19:43 The Journey to New York City

22:26 Unexpected Media Engagements

24:48 The Impact of Viral Fame

25:11 Preparing for the Tonight Show

27:59 Navigating the Green Room Experience

30:54 The Anticipation of Going Live

33:52 Going Off Script on National Television

36:55 Meeting the Jonas Brothers

40:05 Transitioning to Fox and Friends

43:01 The Aftermath of Fame

46:28 Returning to Reality

• There are nearly 26 million drones in total.
• Only about a million drones are registered.
• 25 million drones remain unregistered.
• Most drones are relatively new and prone to crashing.
• Information can be readily obtained from most drones.
• Drones present a danger to helicopters and low-flying aircraft.
• The risk associated with drones is expected to increase.
• Unregistered drones complicate aviation safety.
• The technology surrounding drones is rapidly evolving.
• Regulatory measures are needed to address drone safety.

takeaways

• America's national debt is a significant concern that has been growing for decades.
• Government shutdowns have minimal economic impact but highlight political dysfunction.
• Deficits can hinder economic growth and limit opportunities for future generations.
• Entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare contribute to structural deficits.
• Political leadership has failed to address the looming fiscal crisis effectively.
• The future of Social Security is uncertain, with potential cuts looming in the next seven years.
• AI may improve productivity, but it won't solve fiscal issues overnight.
• Sovereign wealth funds are not a viable solution for the U.S. due to a lack of surplus.
• Tariffs raise revenue but can harm economic growth and are a regressive tax.
• Supply chain resilience is crucial for national security and economic stability.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Douglas Holtz-Eakin

04:49 Government Shutdown Dynamics

07:57 Impact of Shutdown on Fiscal Health

12:49 The Deficit Dilemma

17:44 Entitlement Programs and Structural Deficits

22:46 Potential Solutions for Social Security

26:47 The Role of AI and Sovereign Wealth Funds

30:57 Tariffs and Global Supply Chain Fragility

32:15 Supply Chain Resilience Post-Pandemic

34:02 Government's Role in Supply Shortages

35:30 Long-Term Thinking in American Politics

36:51 Congressional Accountability and Military Actions

38:25 Influence of Special Interests in Politics

38:49 Understanding the Congressional Budget Office

41:54 The Future of the Dollar and Global Trade

44:40 The Federal Reserve's Independence and Its Importance

48:58 Comparing Monetary Policies: U.S. vs. Other Countries

53:54 National Security and Fiscal Policy

57:43 Bipartisan Solutions for Economic Reform Find out more about Douglas Holtz-Eakin and the American Action Forum here

00:00 Introduction to Henrietta Levin and Her Background

07:58 European Perspectives on China

11:04 Understanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

14:03 China's Long-Term Goals with the SCO

16:56 China's Vision for Global Governance

20:15 The Significance of the Recent SCO Summit

23:12 China-India Relations and Their Implications

25:57 The Future of the SCO and Regional Dynamics

30:23 China's Growing Influence in Asia

36:10 Contrasting Development Models: China vs. the West

41:03 The SEO and Alternative Financial Systems

46:58 Turkey's Role in the SEO and Its Complex Relations

54:19 Navigating US-China Relations: Strategies and Outcomes

 Scott and Jake Dyal, CEO of Certus Core, discuss the intersection of AI, data integration, and national security. They explore the challenges faced by government agencies in managing and utilizing data, particularly in the context of drone and sensor data. Jake shares insights from his experience transitioning from government service to the private sector, highlighting the bureaucratic hurdles and the need for innovative solutions in government contracting. The conversation also touches on the importance of small bets in defense innovation and the evolving role of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU).

takeaways

• Custom data products are essential for various government missions.
• Integrating multiple data sources enhances decision-making capabilities.
• Philosophical foundations can influence data integration technologies.
• The ATO process is a significant barrier to innovation in government.
• Startups face numerous challenges in navigating government contracting.
• The DIU has had mixed success in facilitating innovation.
• Bureaucratic processes often hinder timely technology adoption.
• Small bets in defense can lead to significant advancements.
• Building relationships with trusted partners is crucial for success.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction to Certus Core and Its Mission

03:08
The Challenge of Data Integration in National Security

05:59
Philosophical Foundations of Data Communication

09:05
Transitioning from Government to Private Sector

11:56
Navigating Bureaucracy in Government Contracting

15:03
The Role of Innovation in Defense

17:48
Barriers to Effective Government Acquisition

20:58
The Future of Defense Technology and Partnerships

Support the show

In this episode of 'At the Water's Edge,' host Scott interviews Alex Tarascio, a pollster from Cygnal, a private GOP polling firm known for its accuracy. They discuss the intricacies of polling, the differences between private and public polling, and the impact of partisanship on polling results. Alex shares insights on current voter sentiment, the role of corporate clients, and the challenges of polling on national security and foreign policy issues. The conversation also touches on the disconnect between military perspectives and public opinion, the future of national security issues in polling, and the importance of political accountability in democracy promotion. As they look ahead to the midterms, they explore key trends and issues that may influence voter behavior.

Contact the Show: contact@atthewatersedge.org

Cygnal Polling: https://www.cygn.al/

Magpie Spice Co: https://www.instagram.com/magpiespice/

takeaways

• Polling accuracy has improved significantly since 2016.
• Private polling firms have different incentives than public ones.
• Voter sentiment on national security is low, around 5%.
• Partisanship heavily influences polling results and methodologies.
• Benchmarking polls serve different purposes than public polls.
• Corporate clients can impact the type of polling conducted.
• Young women are becoming disengaged from politics and news.
• The issue of abortion is losing its significance in voter motivation.
• Public perception of tariffs is mixed, with many preferring free market solutions.
• Political accountability is essential for effective democracy promotion.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction to Polling and Alex Tarascio

04:45
The Evolution of Polling Post-2016

07:47
The Impact of Partisanship on Polling

10:41
Confidentiality and Trust in Polling

13:39
Public vs. Private Polling Approaches

16:35
National Voter Trends and Current Polling Insights

19:33
Sampling and Its Importance in Polling

22:37
Corporate Clients and Political Affiliations

25:39
Trump's Favorability and Public Perception

28:36
Tariffs and Public Opinion

30:35
Understanding Partisan Dynamics in Polling

32:42
The Impact of Tariffs on Public Opinion

34:47
National Security and Foreign Policy in Polling

38:07
Public Sentiment on Foreign Policy Issues

41:02
The Shift in American Foreign Policy Perspectives

44:01
The Role of Political Diversity in Democracy Promotion

49:20
Challenges in U.S. Foreign Assistance Programs

53:12
Polling Insights for Upcoming Elections

01:01:29
Engaging with Signal's Work and Personal Projects

Support the show

In this episode, Scott and Dr. Jahara 'FRANKY' Matisek discuss the current state of global conflicts, particularly focusing on the dynamics between Israel and Iran, and the tensions between Pakistan and India. They delve into Trump's national security strategy, exploring its foundations and implications, including a modern interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. The conversation also highlights the role of Security Force Assistance Brigades (SFABs) in U.S. military strategy, the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the shifting landscape of U.S. global leadership. The discussion culminates in reflections on the need for accountability and a coherent grand strategy in national security policy.

Original article

Contact the show: contact@atthewatersedge.org

takeaways

• Trump's national security strategy is often seen as a symptom of broader issues rather than the root cause.
• Sanctions can have a delayed effect, impacting economies over time despite immediate appearances.
• The U.S. is perceived as breaking the international order, which could have long-term consequences.
• A coherent grand strategy is essential for effective national security policy.
• Accountability in the national security establishment is lacking, leading to a disconnect with the public.
• The Monroe Doctrine is being reinterpreted to address modern challenges, particularly with China.
• SFABs play a crucial role in enhancing military strategy and interoperability with allies.
• America's soft power is diminishing, affecting its global standing.
• The national security establishment is facing challenges in adapting to new political realities.
• Trump's foreign policy reflects a unique approach that diverges from traditional strategies.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction and Background of the Guest

05:22
Trump's National Security Strategy Overview

08:30
The Monroe Doctrine and Its Modern Implications

11:38
Shifts in Military Strategy and Resources

14:30
The Role of SFABs in Modern Warfare

17:43
Comparing Trump's Policies to Previous Administrations

20:27
Sanctions and Their Effectiveness

23:30
The Future of U.S.-Russia Relations

26:31
Conclusion and Future Implications

34:36
Global Perceptions: America vs. China

36:36
The Evolution of Soft Power in U.S. Foreign Policy

38:59
Trump's Administration: A Shift in Foreign Policy Dynamics

42:29
The National Security Community's Disconnect

43:56
The Impact of U.S. Wars on Global Reputation

48:42
Trump: A Symptom of Deeper Issues

54:29
Accountability in National Security

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In this episode, Senator Bushra Anjum Butt discusses the escalating tensions between Pakistan and India, particularly focusing on the implications of the Indus Water Treaty and the need for international mediation. She emphasizes Pakistan's mission of peace and the importance of diplomacy over war, while also addressing the role of the U.S. in influencing regional stability. The conversation highlights the risks of escalation and the current domestic sentiment in Pakistan regarding the conflict.

takeaways

• Nuclear war poses a global threat beyond immediate casualties.
• Pakistan's delegation in the U.S. aims to mediate peace with India.
• The Indus Water Treaty is crucial for Pakistan's water security.
• War is not a viable solution to conflicts between nations.
• International mediation is essential to prevent escalation.
• The U.S. has significant influence over India's actions.
• Pakistan seeks economic development and trade over military conflict.
• Domestic sentiment in Pakistan is currently united against India.
• The political landscape in Pakistan is complex and evolving.
• A healthy U.S.-Pakistan relationship should focus on mutual growth.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction and Mission of Peace

07:49
The Indus Water Treaty and Its Implications

10:49
Recent Hostilities and Kashmir Conflict

13:50
Appeal for International Mediation

17:05
US-Pakistan Relations and Economic Development

19:46
Pakistan's Diplomatic Strategy

22:50
Escalation Risks and Water Security

25:50
Domestic Sentiment and Political Unity

28:45
Future of US-Pakistan Relations

contact the show: contact@atthewatersedge.org

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In this conversation, Dr. Steve Call discusses the evolution of air support in military operations, focusing on the role of Tactical Air Controllers (TACPs) and the historical context of air-ground integration. He highlights lessons learned from World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War, emphasizing the importance of close air support (CAS) in modern warfare. Dr. Call also addresses current challenges facing CAS and the future of air support in the military, advocating for a deeper understanding of operational concepts versus strategies.

takeaways

• ALO tours were seen as a dark hole in careers.
• American military integrates air support tightly with ground units.
• The history of air-ground coordination is rich and complex.
• Lessons from WWII shaped modern air support strategies.
• Post-WWII, the Air Force focused on strategic bombing over CAS.
• Korean War required a reinvention of CAS tactics.
• Vietnam War established NCOs as key players in air support.
• Desert Storm showcased the effectiveness of CAS.
• Post-9/11 operations highlighted the need for coordination.
• Current trends threaten the effectiveness of CAS.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction to Steve Call

04:43
Steve's Military Background and Education

08:57
The Evolution of Tactical Air Control

12:48
The Importance of Air-Ground Integration

16:48
Historical Context of Close Air Support

20:57
The Dilemma of Air and Ground Forces

24:46
Post-War Air Power Perspectives

28:56
The Reinvention of Close Air Support

32:48
The Fighter Mafia and Its Impact

36:53
Lessons from History and Future Implications

37:41
The Impact of Desert Storm on Air Power

41:35
The Role of Close Air Support in Modern Warfare

53:49
Challenges Facing Close Air Support Today

56:47
The Future of Air Force Close Air Support

01:03:55
The A-10 vs. F-35 Debate

01:06:48
Final Thoughts on Close Air Support Strategy

Dr. Steve Calls Books:

Danger Close: Tactical Air Controllers in Afghanistan and Iraq

Selling Air Power: Military Aviation and American Popular Culture after World War II

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In this episode, Scott interviews Ethan Thornton, the 21-year-old CEO of Mach Industries, a defense technology startup focused on creating innovative unmanned systems. They discuss the transition from traditional defense strategies to a new era of great power competition, the challenges of government contracting, and the importance of decentralized manufacturing. Ethan shares insights on the development of their products, Viper and Glide, and the cultural shifts needed within the defense sector to foster innovation and agility.

Mach Industries Website

takeaways

• Ethan Thornton is the CEO of Mock Industries, a defense tech startup.
• Mock Industries focuses on creating unmanned systems for modern warfare.
• The company aims to provide asymmetric capabilities to the U.S. military.
• Ethan emphasizes the importance of decentralized manufacturing in defense.
• The journey of building a startup in the defense sector is challenging but rewarding.
• Government contracts can be navigated successfully with the right approach.
• Cultural shifts are necessary within the defense bureaucracy to encourage innovation.
• The future of warfare will heavily involve unmanned systems and technology.
• Ethan's background as a tinkerer and engineer shapes his leadership style.
• Building a strong team is crucial for the success of a startup.

Chapters

00:00
Introduction to Mock Industries and Its Mission

06:13
Innovative Defense Technologies and Their Importance

09:24
The Viper: A Game-Changer in UAV Technology

12:17
Funding and Growth: From Idea to Reality

15:21
Navigating Government Contracts and Market Dynamics

18:26
Manufacturing Challenges and Strategies for Success

29:18
Contracting Vehicles and Prototyping Challenges

32:26
Balancing Capacity and Usability in Product Design

35:54
Business Models: The Key to Disruption in Defense

39:49
Building a Mission-Driven Team

42:44
Cultural Shifts Needed in the Defense Industrial Base

46:44
The Role of Unmanned Warfare in Modern Conflict

50:58
The Impact of Cultural Change on the Defense Sector

Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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Insights from Jamie Miller shed light on how Trump’s foreign policies align with the sentiments of his voter base. This episode reveals the evolving perceptions of national security among Americans and explores the implications behind Trump's strategic decisions.

• Unpacking Trump's "America First" philosophy 
• The shift in Republican foreign policy strategy 
• Voter perceptions on immigration, safety, and national security 
• Understanding the implications of cabinet picks for Trump’s second term 
• The possible risks of hardline immigration policies on geopolitics 
• The evolving nature of America's role in global affairs 

If you liked what you heard, please follow the podcast and share with your friends, and even consider going to the support the show link in the episode description. 

Jamie Miller's Blog: https://reasonablearguments.com/

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In this conversation, Dr. John Klein discusses the evolution of space warfare, the importance of maritime doctrine in understanding space strategy, and the complexities of military and civilian infrastructure in space. He emphasizes the need for the US Space Force to adapt to the changing landscape of space competition, the significance of spectrum control, and the intersection of space and cyber warfare. Klein also highlights the role of commercial entities in space and the challenges of managing risks associated with technological innovations. The discussion concludes with insights on the necessity of understanding rival perspectives to navigate the future of space as a tool of national power.

Get John's book here

takeaways

• The evolution of space warfare necessitates a re-examination of its strategic importance.
• Maritime doctrine provides valuable insights for understanding space warfare.
• Choke points in space include both physical locations and electromagnetic spectrum.
• Spectrum control is crucial for effective space operations and cyber warfare.
• Space and cyber operations are increasingly interconnected in modern warfare.
• The privatization of space raises questions about military and civilian infrastructure roles.
• Globalization and technology transfer in space present both opportunities and risks.
• Managing risks associated with space innovations is essential for national security.
• The US Space Force must adapt to the realities of space competition.
• Understanding rival perspectives is key to effective space strategy.

titles

• Navigating the New Frontier of Space Warfare
• Space Warfare: A Maritime Perspective

Sound Bites

• "Space was a war fighting domain."
• "The mindset of space has changed a lot."
• "We need to prepare for conflict in space."

Chapters

00:00
The State of Space Warfare Today

01:50
Evolution of Space Warfare Concepts

04:51
Maritime Doctrine Applied to Space Warfare

07:34
Spectrum Control and Cyber Warfare

10:48
Military and Civilian Infrastructure in Space

13:39
Emerging Competition and Proxy Warfare in Space

16:34
Commercialization of Space and Globalization Risks

19:50
Capabilities for Great Power Competition in Space

22:57
Deterrence Strategies in Space Warfare

26:23
Embargo and Blockade in Space

28:07
Understanding Space Force's Role

31:35
Commercial Integration and Space Strategy

33:58
Building a Space Force Identity

38:46
Space Force as a Hegemon in Space

42:45
Navigating Competition and Cooperation

49:31
Cultural Understanding in Deterrence

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summary

In this conversation, Ethan Brown discusses the evolution of close air support (CAS) and the critical role of Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTACs) and Tactical Air Control Party (TACP) members during the Global War on Terror. He highlights the importance of air-ground integration, the lessons learned from past operations, and the future challenges faced by the TACP community in an era of great power competition. The discussion emphasizes the trust dynamic between ground forces and JTACs, the technological advancements in air power, and the need for continued prioritization of close air support capabilities within the Air Force.

contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

takeaways

• The Global War on Terror fundamentally changed air-ground integration.
• JTACs played a crucial role in close air support operations.
• The TACP community is often overlooked despite their importance.
• Close air support requires detailed planning and situational awareness.
• Trust between ground forces and JTACs is essential for mission success.
• Technological advancements have significantly impacted air power capabilities.
• Lessons learned from past incidents shape current practices in close air support.
• The future of the TACP community is uncertain within the Air Force.
• Close air support is not just about calling in airstrikes; it's about command and control.
• The evolution of warfare necessitates a reevaluation of JTAC roles.

Sound Bites

• "This was the CAS War."
• "The most dangerous thing we do is call in close air support."
• "The buck stops with the ground force commander."

Chapters

00:00
Introduction to TacP and Close Air Support

04:43
Understanding Close Air Support

08:04
The Role of JTACs in Modern Warfare

10:57
The Importance of TacP Training and Knowledge

13:42
Challenges and Risks in Close Air Support

16:39
Lessons Learned from Historical Incidents

19:47
The Dynamics of Trust in Air-Ground Integration

35:27
Building Trust in Combat Operations

43:38
The Evolution of Close Air Support

46:51
Real-Life Examples of Close Air Support

52:33
The Future of JTACs in Modern Warfare

01:02:34
The Air Force's Commitment to Close Air Support

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In this  episode, Scott interviews Tim Mak, an American journalist living in Ukraine, about the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Tim runs a publication called The Counter Offensive, which focuses on telling the stories of the Russian invasion in Ukraine through human interest stories. They discuss various topics including the state of the conflict, the role of the international community, the impact on the Ukrainian people, and the long-term effects of the war.

The Counter Offensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/

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Guest David Kilcullen. The conversation explores the reasons behind America's failure in Afghanistan and the consequences of the Taliban retaking Kabul. It delves into the concept of counterinsurgency and its application in different contexts. The discussion highlights the mistakes made in Afghanistan, such as the failure to negotiate a peace settlement with the Taliban, the expansion of ISAF without understanding the local dynamics, and the attempt to replicate the surge strategy from Iraq. The disconnect between military leaders and civilian decision-makers, as well as the lack of accountability, are also discussed. The conversation with Dave Kilcullen explores the failures and lessons learned from the war in Afghanistan. Kilcullen highlights the lack of accountability within the institution and the inability to adapt to changing environments. He emphasizes the importance of a fighting force that can critique conventional wisdom and adapt when necessary. The collapse of the Afghan government and military is attributed to a focus on central government institutions rather than local governance systems. The relationship with Pakistan is discussed, with Kilcullen noting their fear of strategic encirclement and their desire to keep Afghanistan weak. He also emphasizes the need for better civilian-military coordination, political engagement, and a willingness to learn from past mistakes in future conflicts.

Counterinsurgency by David Kilcullen
The Ledger: Accounting for Failure in Afghanistan by David Kilcullen and Greg Mills

contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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The conversation explores the concept of readiness in the military and the challenges of balancing people-first initiatives with the pursuit of readiness. It delves into the definition of readiness and its various components, such as individual and unit training, equipment functionality, and supply. The conversation also discusses the Army's training cycle and the role of CTC rotations in preparing units for deployment. The impact of funding on readiness is explored, particularly in relation to personnel shortages and the need for modernization. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the tension between taking care of soldiers and maintaining readiness, highlighting the trade-offs between quality of life issues and training priorities. The conversation explores the challenges of balancing training and readiness with the well-being of soldiers and their families. It highlights the need for predictability and stability in training schedules to support soldiers and their families. The conversation also discusses the loss of training management mastery in the Army's officer corps and the focus on immediate results rather than long-term readiness. The impact of toxic leadership and the officer career track on training cycles and decision-making is also examined. The conversation concludes with a call for a better balance between training and soldier well-being, as well as the need for metrics that measure morale and command culture. 

contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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In this episode Scott interviews Leo Blanken (PhD), an associate professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School, about innovation as a tool of national security. They discuss the need for innovation in the rapidly changing strategic and technological landscape, the challenges faced by the US military in adapting to these changes, and the importance of a comprehensive national security strategy. They also explore the role of the defense industrial base and the relationship between the government and the private sector in fostering innovation. Dr. Blanken emphasizes the need for the military to slow down and be more thoughtful in its approach to innovation, focusing on purpose and capability rather than just grabbing technology for its own sake. The conversation highlights the importance of culture and incentives in driving innovation and transformation in the United States. It emphasizes the need for the military to leverage education opportunities as a way to foster mid-range innovation and develop strategic assets. The discussion also touches on the challenges of partnering with foreign forces and the need to understand their specific needs and priorities. The conversation concludes by addressing the issue of sacred cows in the defense budget and the importance of having tough conversations to drive innovation and question traditional approaches.

Leo Blanken (PhD) website: https://faculty.nps.edu/ljblanke/

contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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The conversation explores the competition and strategic implications of space exploration and activities between states. It discusses the role of the US Space Force, the reasons for the increasing focus on space as a domain of competition, and the activities of geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia. The conversation also delves into the concept of irregular warfare in space and the potential impact of privatization on space activities. Overall, the discussion highlights the need for strategic thinking and cooperation in the space domain.

Takeaways

• Space has become a new domain of competition between states, driven by advancements in technology, increased access to space, and the pursuit of national security interests.
• The US Space Force is a military organization focused on protecting national security interests in space and supporting joint operations.
• Geopolitical rivals such as China and Russia have their own space programs and objectives, which may differ from those of the United States and its allies.
• Space activities can be categorized as regular warfare or irregular warfare, with the latter involving actions below the threshold of armed conflict.
• The privatization of space activities offers opportunities for innovation and cost-effectiveness, but there is a need to balance commercial involvement with the inherent responsibilities of the government.

Link to Buy "Fight for the Final Frontier: Irregular Warfare in Space" https://a.co/d/jgiT0Ce

 Contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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Liza Tobin, Senior Director of the Economy Team at the Special Competitive Studies Project, discusses China's systemic rivalry with the United States and the need for a strong American industrial policy. She explains why China is the main geopolitical rival and outlines its goals for global dominance. Tobin also highlights the challenges the US faces in competing with China's brute force economics and the need for a coherent counter strategy. She emphasizes the importance of investing in the basic building blocks of AI leadership and the role of the US government in buying down risk and enabling companies to scale up. The conversation explores the role of government funding in research and development (R&D) and the challenges of relying on the private sector for critical national needs. It highlights the risks of dependency on China for critical infrastructure and the importance of investing in national objectives. The discussion concludes with a call to rebuild industrial capacity and an invitation to the AI Expo 

Link to AI Expo: https://expo.scsp.ai/about/

Contact the Show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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With death tolls rising on all sides, Israel's military operation in Gaza to rescue it's hostages and root out the Hamas terrorists that attacked it on October 7th continues to grind on. As imagines of Palestinian suffering reach audiences around the globe, South Africa has brought charges of genocide against Israel, claiming that the suffering of Palestinians isn't a tragic but inevitable result of Israel exercising its right to self defense, but instead a deliberate plan to destroy them as a nation. 

To unpack this, Francis Boyle (PhD) and Professor Amichai Cohen share their insights on the merits of South Africa's case, the role of the International Court of Justice, and how this case and recent rulings by the court will impact events moving forward. 

Francis Boyle (PhD): https://law.illinois.edu/faculty-research/faculty-profiles/francis-boyle/
Professor Amichai Cohen: https://en.idi.org.il/experts/1491

contact the show: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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Scott and Jahara 'FRANKY' Matisek discuss the misconceptions surrounding US military assistance and coups in Africa. They explore the goals of US security assistance in Africa and the challenges of promoting democracy through this assistance. They also delve into the need for a whole-of-government approach and the importance of staffing embassies and addressing economic development. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the Lobito Corridor as a development project aimed at countering China's Belt and Road Initiative in Africa. The conversation explores the geopolitical significance of the Libido Corridor, a transportation project in Africa that aims to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. It discusses the importance of the corridor in securing rare earths and minerals in the Congo and its potential benefits for African countries. The conversation then shifts to the idea of building Army Corps of Engineers in African countries to facilitate development and foster positive civil-military relations. It also highlights the advocacy for a peace engineering corps in every African military. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the challenges and depressing realities in Africa, including the rise of insurgency, terrorism, and declining democracies.

original article: https://irregularwarfare.org/articles/to-coup-or-not-to-coup-the-cold-war-hangover-of-us-security-assistance/

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Sean O'Keefe's wide ranging career in government stretched from being the staff director for the Senate appropriations committee, chief financial officer for the Department of Defense, Secretary of the Navy, and leading NASA. He shares his views on globalization, America's role in the world, the difficulties in creating an effective industrial policy to support America's national security, and how states need to cooperate in Space. 

contact the show: atthwatersedgewp@gmail.com

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Ethan Brown is an Airforce Special Operations veteran who is currently a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He wrote an article that deep dived the impact of 20 years of the Global War on Terror has had on how the American public sees the military and impacts recruiting. 

Link to article: https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-ghost-of-gwot-haunting-the-military-recruiting-crisis/

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Retired Army Special Forces two-star general Kurt Sonntag discusses the transition of special operations from counterterrorism to great power competition. He shares his experience leading the Combined Joint Task Force -  Horn of Africa and highlights the challenges of coordinating efforts with partner nations and interagency organizations. MG Sonntag also discusses the activities of great power actors in the region, including Iran, Russia, Turkey, and China. He emphasizes the importance of campaign planning and the need for better coordination between intelligence and special operations. MG Sonntag concludes by addressing the impact of billet cuts on special operations. In this conversation, MG Sonntag discusses the challenges in manning Special Forces and the need to maintain the proper force structure. He highlights the reduced manning strength of ODAs (Operational Detachment-Alpha) during the early stages of the war on 9/11 and the impact it had on their capabilities. MG Sonntag emphasizes the importance of maintaining the base organization of 10 to 12 members per ODA and the risks associated with deploying smaller teams. He also discusses his role in restructuring the Special Forces Qualification Course (Q Course) to address attrition rates and training inefficiencies.

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America is struggling to produce enough ammunition and other hardware to support our allies in a time of need, which has exposed deep cracks in our defense industrial base. Matt Stoller looked at how a series of consolidations among America's defense contractors has increased the costs while reducing the output of military equipment, and how there is no incentive among private industry to address the issue. Link to his article here: https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/why-america-is-out-of-ammunition

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In this conversation, Judge Baker discusses the sources of sovereignty and legitimacy in international law, the role of law in security beyond war crimes, and the challenges and importance of working with lawyers in the military. He also explores the two great legal challenges of our time: Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the rise of authoritarianism. Judge Baker explains the three purposes of law: authority, process, and values, and discusses the sources of international law, including treaties and customary law. He emphasizes the importance of supporting Ukraine and the rule of law, despite the practical limitations and potential risks involved. The conversation covers various topics related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including the question of escalation, increasing support to Ukraine, hesitation in providing support, concerns about the misuse of American weapons, security assurances, and NATO membership. It also discusses the Ring Around Russia initiative, which aims to promote the importance of national security law in the frontline states. 

Contact: atthewatersedgewp@gmail.com

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Check out Jon's book here: https://www.wireless-wars.com/

The conversation explores the competition between the US and China in the development and implementation of 5G technology. It highlights the importance of 5G in various sectors and the risks associated with relying on Chinese companies like Huawei. The conversation delves into China's approach to business relationships, including intellectual property theft. It also discusses the need for OpenRAN architecture as a solution to counter China's dominance in the telecom industry. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the challenges and importance of economic decoupling from China and the need for trust-based ecosystems. The conversation explores the challenges and potential of Open RAN, a new approach to building telecom networks. It discusses the need for established companies like Nokia and Ericsson to shift to Open RAN and the difficulties they may face. The role of engineers in designing complicated networks is highlighted, as well as the lack of expertise within carriers. The business incentives for vendors to adopt Open RAN are examined, along with the complexity of spectrum allocation. The conversation concludes by emphasizing the ongoing nature of the Open RAN story and its geopolitical significance.

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This episode explores the arguments for and against supporting the current rules-based international order and promoting freedom and democracy as a consistent American foreign policy principle. It discusses the historical context of the post-World War II era, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the questioning of America's role in the world. The episode examines the effectiveness of the current international order, highlighting the decrease in global violence and poverty. It delves into the democratic peace theory and the theory of capitalist peace, along with their criticisms and limitations. The episode emphasizes the need for cautious and nuanced foreign policy decisions and the responsibility of citizens to hold leaders accountable.

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Bob Curris served over 30 years in the military and led Psychological Operations teams around the world. He's concerned the Army is making cuts that will degrade America's ability to conduct information and influence operations as the need to compete in the information space is only increasing with the shift from the GWOT era to the era of Great Power Competition. Link to his original Military Times article here: https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2023/11/01/the-army-needs-to-invest-in-psychological-operations-not-cut-them/

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Discussion with Josh Paul on his decision to resign from the State Department over concerns with the Biden administration's Israel policy, the role of arms transfers in U.S. foreign policy, and the role America plays in the world. 

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Will the BRICS nations end the reign of the U.S. Dollar as the world's dominant currency, threatening America's prosperity and security? On paper, they could, but things get real messy real quick after that. The devil is always in the details. 

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As Israel prepares to invade Gaza and destroy Hamas, what challenges will it face and where can it all go wrong? We discuss the military, political, and economic implications of the ground assault and what lessons Israel should take from America's own experience fighting terrorists hiding among civilians in cities. 

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