Reuters Morning Bid

The 4% problem

Wed, 13 May 2026 10:07:00 -0000

U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a rebellion inside his own Labour Party as thirty-year gilt yields hit their highest since the 1990s.

Today’s recommended read: G7 long bond stress intensifies, Mike Dolan

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Warshed and ready

Tue, 12 May 2026 10:04:00 -0000

Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Today’s recommended read: Warsh's red lines worry world finance by Mike Dolan

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Xi marks the spot

Mon, 11 May 2026 09:34:00 -0000

Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally unacceptable."

Today’s recommended read: Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs, Clyde Russell

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Week ahead: Yuan to watch

Sun, 10 May 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate discussions.

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Week in review: Big oil bets, jobs and tariffs

Sat, 09 May 2026 10:22:00 -0000

Amanda Cooper and Peter Devlin discuss the week that was, including Reuters revelation that a total of $7 billion oil price bets ahead the Iran war news. Hear how US jobs numbers beat expectations beat for a second straight month and what another court ruling on tariffs could mean to the global economy.

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Unstoppable stock rally?

Fri, 08 May 2026 10:01:00 -0000

Stocks are still defying gravity, even as Gulf tensions flare and President Trump's tariffs face another legal setback. With U.S. jobs numbers due later today, investors are about to find out how much good news is already priced in.

Today’s recommended read: Shrinking US fuel stocks leave Trump exposed, Ron Bousso

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Chip stock boom

Thu, 07 May 2026 09:46:00 -0000

Asian markets return from Golden Week to a tech-driven rally, with Japan's Nikkei surging 6% and SoftBank jumping nearly 20%. Meanwhile, Tehran mulls a one-page U.S. proposal to end the Iran war, and U.S. labor market data shows hiring holding up despite the oil shock.

Today’s recommended read: Trapdoor creaks for dollar if Iran war ends, Mike Dolan

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Iran's 'Trump' card

Wed, 06 May 2026 09:28:00 -0000

Oil falls and stocks hit another record high after the Trump administration suspends "Project Freedom," citing progress in Iran negotiations. AMD surges 16% and Samsung jumps more than 10% on roaring chip demand tied to the AI build-out. And long-dated government bond yields climb to multi-decade highs in the U.S. and UK.

Today’s recommended read: US long bonds over 5% - buy or beware?, Mike Dolan

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What is the NACHO trade?

Tue, 05 May 2026 09:33:00 -0000

Oil holds above $110 a barrel as fighting in the Gulf intensifies, with Iranian forces striking a UAE oil installation and small boats exchanging fire with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a sharp upgrade to U.S. earnings forecasts and soaring AI spending projections keep equity investors from heading for the exits.

Today’s recommended read: Forget 3% US inflation. It's heading for 4%, Jamie McGeever

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The week ahead: Fed fight

Sun, 03 May 2026 09:00:00 -0000

Kevin Warsh steps into the Fed chair role this week with three regional Fed presidents calling for the removal of any easing bias and Jerome Powell staying on the board until 2028 — leaving no immediate new vacancy for the White House to fill. Plus, Friday's payrolls report will be the week's key test of whether the employment side of the economy remains as resilient as it has been since the Iran conflict began.

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Week in Review: OPEC minus one

Sat, 02 May 2026 09:00:00 -0000

The UAE announced it is pulling out of OPEC, a move that analysts say could complicate the group's ability to manage production quotas. The Fed held rates but recorded its biggest board dissent since 1992, with Powell announcing he'll stay on as governor and warning against what he called a "battering" of Fed independence. The Bank of England and ECB signaled they could hike as soon as June, though bond yields fell as markets scaled back their most aggressive rate expectations. And Tech earnings powered Wall Street to its best month since 2020, with the four largest tech companies committing more than $700 billion to AI infrastructure.

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Yen jolt

Fri, 01 May 2026 10:58:00 -0000

With Japanese markets on holiday and liquidity thin, the yen jumps sharply on what sources suggest may be a second round of official buying. Central banks in Europe lean hawkish despite stagflation concerns, while Apple's earnings beat is tempered by Tim Cook's warning that iPhone prices could rise due to chip shortages.

Today’s recommended read: The UAE dumping OPEC may not affect crude as anticipated, by Clyde Russell

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Powell era ends, hawks rise

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 10:19:00 -0000

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the Iran blockade could last months, sending Brent crude to its highest level since the war began and feeding U.S. inflation expectations. Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain on the Federal Reserve board after his term as chair ends May 15, a move that blocks Trump from immediately filling his seat. Plus, Meta slid around 7% on rising CapEx concerns, while Alphabet surged roughly 7% on the strength of its cloud business.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war stasis brings US inflation expectations back to the boil, Mike Dolan

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OPEC fractures

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 10:10:00 -0000

OPEC loses its fourth-biggest producer. Jerome Powell prepares to chair what is almost certainly his final Federal Reserve policy meeting with inflation ticking back up. And a quiet Wall Street Journal report about OpenAI missing targets is rattling the entire AI trade - right before Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta report after the bell.

Today’s recommended read: Transatlantic rate convergence may be a mirage, Mike Dolan

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Yen and bear it

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:33:00 -0000

A rare split vote at the BOJ sharpens the debate over Japan’s next rate move, even as the yen struggles to rally. Oil holds above $100 with the Iran conflict frozen, while tech stocks power ahead into a pivotal earnings week.

Today’s recommended read: 'See through' Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead, Mike Dolan

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The Powell hour

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 09:33:00 -0000

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads into what could be his last meeting as Fed chair as oil tops $100 and Wall Street seems unfazed by geopolitical tension. AI‑linked stocks lead global markets higher ahead of a big week for tech earnings.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war hands OPEC's swing producer crown to America, Ron Bousso

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Week Ahead: The Fed is watching inflation

Sun, 26 Apr 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Central banks take the spotlight this week, with U.S. inflation data set to test expectations for rate cuts. Plus a look ahead to key mega‑cap earnings.

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Week in Review: Talking about Kevin

Sat, 25 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0000

Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearings put a spotlight on the future of the Fed. SpaceX’s IPO filing shows Elon Musk retaining control of the rocket maker. Plus, DeepSeek’s latest model shows China’s growing self-sufficiency in AI.

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Stocks over shocks

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 10:02:00 -0000

Oil prices climb again after U.S. President Donald Trump warns Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. But stocks keep rallying, helped by upbeat AI earnings from Intel.

Today’s recommended read: Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries, Mike Dolan

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Tech, against the odds

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:55:00 -0000

Oil prices are climbing and geopolitics are getting worse, but markets keep clinging to tech. Tesla’s shares pop on positive cash flow, then slip on higher spending plans, raising the question of how long tech optimism can outweigh rising energy costs and global risk.

Today’s recommended read: A Warsh-led Fed's 2% inflation goal might be a different 2%, by Mike Dolan

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Oil shrugs

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 10:21:00 -0000

Oil traders shrug at U.S. President Donald Trump's Iran ceasefire extension. Tesla kicks off a crucial earnings week. Plus, Kevin Warsh signals a future where Fed independence comes with real trade-offs.

Today’s recommended read: Warsh's impossible mission - Tame inflation and please Trump, Mike Dolan

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Another bite at the Apple

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 09:35:00 -0000

Markets shrug off Middle East tensions as tech stocks ride the AI wave. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faces Congress. Apple investors stay calm as Tim Cook steps aside, handing the helm to longtime hardware chief John Ternus.

Today’s recommended read: Can Europe take advantage of its savings buffer over US? by Mike Dolan

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Strait talk

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:30:00 -0000

Shifting signals around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz send oil prices swinging again, keeping energy markets on edge. U.S. equities stay driven by tech momentum, while UK assets watch renewed political strain.

Today’s recommended read: Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon?, Clyde Russell

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Week Ahead: Back to business

Sun, 19 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0000

As Wall Street regains lost ground, a political fight over the Federal Reserve threatens to unsettle what comes next.

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Week in Review: Strait expectations

Sat, 18 Apr 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Oil slides as Iran signals shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. banks post solid earnings and China beats growth forecasts.

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Markets fly high, airlines not so much

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 10:27:00 -0000

Stocks are rallying on hopes of an end to the Iran war but European airlines are cancelling flights as the energy crunch deepens. Plus, Netflix founder Reed Hastings is stepping down.

Today’s recommended read: China is coming back – and the timing couldn’t be better, by Stephen Jen

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China's surprise

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 09:45:00 -0000

China’s economy beats expectations and TSMC delivers another blockbuster quarter. Plus, attention swings back to Washington, where President Donald Trump renews his feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just as his nominee for chair, Kevin Warsh, prepares to face Congress next week.

Today’s recommended read: In the world of war and rivalry, tech is the victor, by Mike Dolan

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Wall Street bets the war is over

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 09:33:00 -0000

The U.S. blockade on Iranian portsis still in force, but the S&P 500 is back flirting with record highs. Plus, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh heads to Congress next week — with just a month to get confirmed before Jerome Powell steps down.

Today’s recommended read: Back to square one? Markets bet Iran war is over, by Mike Dolan

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Markets tune out the noise

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:31:00 -0000

Wall Street rebounds to pre-war levels as markets shift focus to earnings. Goldman Sachs delivers standout results, though its stock slips. Meanwhile, the IMF prepares fresh economic forecasts as oil shocks and slowing trade complicate the global outlook.

Today’s recommended read: Orban's fall clears another roadblock for European markets by Mike Dolan

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Blockade and a hard place?

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 09:36:00 -0000

Oil markets react as the U.S. says it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz following collapsed Iran talks, and U.S. President Donald Trump warns Americans to expect prolonged high fuel prices. And Europe sees a political shift after Hungary’s Viktor Orban is defeated at the polls.

Today’s recommended read: Trump returns to weary and failing playbook with Hormuz blockade threat by Clyde Russell

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Week ahead: Markets look for reassurance

Sun, 12 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0000

Hungary votes today, in what could be the country’s most consequential election in years. This week’s bank earnings kick off with expectations still high, but investors will be listening closely for how Wall Street talks about geopolitical risk and private credit.

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Week in Review: Whither the ceasefire

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0000

Markets rallied after a US–Iran ceasefire announcement. But with shipping still stalled in the Gulf, oil infrastructure damaged, and fuel costs rising, the economic fallout is already being felt.

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Oil markets remain tense despite a ceasefire

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:41:00 -0000

Gas prices are climbing, crude is hitting records, and the latest data could show the biggest inflation jump in years. We explain how energy shocks ripple through the economy — and why the Fed’s “transitory” hopes are looking shaky again.

Today’s recommended read: Ceasefire uncorks market relief, but outlook remains sobering, by Jamie McGeever

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A fragile ceasefire

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:59:00 -0000

Markets cheered a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. Less than 48 hours later, doubts are creeping back in — with oil flows still limited, the Fed reassessing inflation risks, and airlines warning of higher costs for consumers.

Today’s recommended read: Refined fuel prices retreat in Asia, but still show supply stress, by Clyde Russell

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The ceasefire that markets want to believe

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:50:00 -0000

The U.S. and Iran have agreed a ceasefire. Markets are surging, oil is down 15%, and suddenly a Fed rate cut is back on the table.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war ceasefire pushes energy markets into twilight zone, by Ron Bousso

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Iran deadline approaches

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 09:26:00 -0000

Global markets remain on edge as President Trump's Iran deadline looms with no sign of a quick resolution. Samsung's blockbuster profits lift Asian stocks briefly, while U.S. services data underline the Fed’s growing dilemma.

Today’s recommended read: It's time to end the world's delusions over the Iran energy crisis, Clyde Russell

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Markets play the guessing game

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 10:15:00 -0000

U.S. markets reopen after the long weekend to mixed signals as Trump sets a new Iran deadline, OPEC talks up higher output, and a surprisingly hot US jobs report lands, complicating the Fed’s inflation fight.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war exposes frailties of 'no-hire' US economy by Jamie McGeever

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Week ahead: What the oil shock means for inflation

Sat, 04 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0000

Next week a new U.S. inflation report lands just as the fallout from the Iran war ripples through energy markets. We look at what the data could show, how energy prices are feeding through the economy, and how the Fed is thinking about its next move.

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Markets space out

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 10:28:00 -0000

President Trump’s Iran war address leaves markets uneasy. Plus, investors brace for U.S. jobs data. And far from Earth, NASA returns to the Moon as SpaceX prepares a record-setting IPO.

Today’s recommended read: Oil shock resilience in March - or smoke and mirrors?, by Mike Dolan

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End in sight?

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:44:00 -0000

Markets rally as investors hope for an end to the Iran war, sending oil lower and stocks higher. U.S. consumers stay unexpectedly confident despite energy shocks, while Nike shares tumble after warning of a sharp slowdown in China sales.

Today’s recommended read: Haven or dry powder, cash did fine in March, just ask Buffett by Mike Dolan

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Q1 and done

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:53:00 -0000

Q1 2026 will be one to remember: oil ending at multi‑year highs, US gas prices crossing $4, and markets struggling to price geopolitical uncertainty. As the Fed stays patient, attention turns to labor data and tightening financial conditions.

Today’s recommended read: Market tightening gives central banks time to wait and watch by Mike Dolan

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Fuel on the fire

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 09:37:00 -0000

Markets start the week under pressure as conflict pushes oil prices sharply higher. G7 policymakers debate ways to shield consumers from fuel costs, while new European inflation figures could provide the first real evidence of how the energy shock is feeding through.

Today’s recommended read: Crude oil and LNG supply are at risk of the worst-possible scenario by Mike Dolan

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Week Ahead: Treasury tremors

Sun, 29 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Consumers confront rising energy costs as confidence data looms, just as a Good Friday jobs release will postpone a market response. At the same time, widening spreads and weak auctions highlight strain in Treasury markets and concerns over liquidity.

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Week in Review: Trump tries to steady markets

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0000

This past week, oil prices swung as rhetoric around the Iran conflict rattles markets, with traders gauging how far energy shocks could push inflation. As the OECD warns of price pressures, nerves are showing in US Treasuries.

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Another day, another deadline

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 10:25:00 -0000

Oil is on track for its steepest fall in six months as Trump buys more time on Iran. But with the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted investors are guessing in the dark. Plus, Elon Musk could launch the biggest IPO ever — and he wants retail investors along for the ride.

Today’s recommended read: War, oil shock, uncertainty? Time to raise US equity outlook, by Jamie McGeever

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Oil's new normal

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 10:27:00 -0000

The Iran conflict continues to reshape global energy math. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has reset his China visit for May. Plus, a California ruling finds Meta and Google negligent in how they designed products for young users.

Today’s recommended read: Iran oil shock sets US Treasury seismograph twitching, Mike Dolan

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Oil down, expectations up

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 10:21:00 -0000

Oil has slipped below $100 after Iran hinted it may ease passage through the Strait of Hormuz, while reports of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 15‑point plan have markets searching for a turning point — despite little clarity on what it actually involves. We look at how a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Trump’s approval at a new low fits into the wider market mood. Plus, what new business surveys reveal about how the real economy is absorbing the energy shock.

Today’s recommended read: Gulf war rattles petrodollar foundations, Mike Dolan

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Markets get whiplash

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 09:36:00 -0000

Markets remain uneasy as U.S. President Donald Trump's 48‑hour ultimatum for Iran stretches to five days with no clarity on negotiations. Oil climbs back above $100 and today’s PMI surveys offer the first read on how the war is hitting business confidence.

Today’s recommended read: Why $100 oil won't break the American consumer, Jamie McGeever

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Deadline shock rattles global markets

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 09:55:00 -0000

Global stocks tumble after President Trump gives Iran a Monday deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a sharp escalation. Energy prices jump and traditional safe havens falter, leaving investors with few places to hide.

Today’s recommended read: Trump's Iran war oil shield is cracking, Ron Bousso

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Week ahead: Bubble, oil and trouble

Sun, 22 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Investors head into the final full week of the quarter after a turbulent stretch dominated by the Iran conflict, an energy shock, and shifting AI sentiment. Key survey data this week will offer the first read on how the war is filtering through to business activity.

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Week in Review: Shock to the system

Sat, 21 Mar 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Qatar warns of multi‑year output losses after strikes on its main gas field, intensifying concerns over long‑term supply. The Fed stays steady on policy expectations, while the ECB and BOE pivot toward rate hikes.

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Eye of the storm?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 10:05:00 -0000

Energy markets catch their breath after Western moves to boost supply, though Qatar’s gas sector warns of years-long disruption. Plus, a dramatic shift in rate expectations drives one of the steepest selloffs in European sovereign debt in months.

Today’s recommended read: Kevin Warsh's first move as Fed chair could be a rate hike, Jamie McGeever

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Energy shock tests central banks

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 09:56:00 -0000

A strike on Iran’s South Pars field sends oil above $110 and natural gas higher. The Fed leaves rates unchanged but adopts a more cautious tone. Investors now look to the BOE, ECB and BOJ for signals on how they’ll handle the inflation threat.

Today’s recommended read: Don't panic, don't capitulate: investors try to see beyond Iran war, Mike Dolan

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The Fed's next move

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 10:06:00 -0000

A blackout kept officials quiet as the oil shock hit. Now Fed Chair Jerome Powell returns with new projections — aiming to signal caution without moving rates. The physical oil market is screaming tighter supply while the paper market barely reacts. Plus, Micron’s AI surge keeps equities buoyant.

Today’s recommended read:Inflation expectations flash a warning - but not a long-lasting one, by Mike Dolan

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Oil's not well

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 09:32:00 -0000

Policymakers gather this week under renewed inflation pressure as crude returns to $100 and tensions in the Gulf rise. Meanwhile, chip producers warn that wafer shortages may persist to 2030, challenging tech supply and capital‑spending plans.

Today’s recommended read: Oil shock sparks rate repricing in historic 'G4' central bank week, Jamie McGeever

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Oil prices put markets over a barrel

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 10:06:00 -0000

Oil trades back above $100 as the Iran war enters a third week. Markets watch a packed central bank calendar while U.S.–China trade talks begin in Paris, with a possible Trump–Xi summit now uncertain.

Today’s recommended read: US is quickly exhausting tools to absorb Iran war oil shock by Ron Bousso

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Week Ahead: Gulf drives markets

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 23:00:00 -0000

As tensions rise in the Middle East and oil prices jump, central banks from the Fed to the ECB are reworking their inflation math once again. The fresh oil shock is reshaping rate expectations—while hidden risks in private credit and software debt bubble up in the background.

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Week in Review: A bad time to be a forecaster

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 11:00:00 -0000

A historic oil reserve release fails to cool prices, core inflation refuses to ease, and markets push rate‑cut hopes way back as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions reshape economic expectations in real time.

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Russia back on‑tap

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 10:22:00 -0000

Washington eases sanctions to free up more Russian oil as Brent crude tops $101 a barrel. We break down the market fallout, the inflation squeeze and the impact on the Fed.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war is one 'TACO' too far, by Jamie McGeever

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$100 today, $200 tomorrow?

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 09:52:00 -0000

Oil surges to $100 again as Gulf attacks mount. Tehran says it’s ready to squeeze global oil until crude hits $200 a barrel. We explain why markets are taking that threat seriously and how it’s reshaping everything from shipping costs to inflation bets.

Today’s recommended read: Iran oil shock prompts ECB hawks to seek 2021/22 rematch, by Mike Dolan

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Strait ahead

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 09:53:00 -0000

Tension in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping traders on edge and reshaping how markets think about energy. Plus, Oracle shares deliver a surprise lift, even as the world powering AI looks stretched. And JP Morgan spots some unsettling signals inside private credit.

Today’s recommended read: The dangerous politics of US oil-driven redistribution, Mike Dolan

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Buckle up

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 09:38:00 -0000

Oil prices whipsaw as Trump signals the Iran conflict may end soon, sending volatility surging across global markets. Stocks, bonds, and rate expectations swing wildly, while China delivers a surprise trade boom that adds another twist to an already unpredictable day.

Today’s recommended read: How oil shock and financial stress can feed each other by Mike Dolan

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Oil shock

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 10:33:00 -0000

Oil prices surge past $100 as the Middle East conflict enters a second week, raising fears of a prolonged supply shock. Combined with weak U.S. jobs data, stagflation concerns intensify while global markets fall, bond yields jump, and investors shift toward dollar liquidity.

Today’s recommended read: Compounding errors and narrow self-interest threaten global fuel crisis by Clyde Russell

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Week Ahead: Will rate cuts have to wait?

Sun, 08 Mar 2026 11:00:00 -0000

Markets brace for a prolonged Middle East conflict as energy prices drive uncertainty. Inflation data lands this week with fresh clues on how the surge in oil and gas could spill over. And with Kevin Warsh waiting in the wings, Fed rate‑cut hopes keep sliding.

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Week in Review: Seven days of war

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 11:00:00 -0000

Energy prices jump, bonds sell off and central banks confront new inflation risks as the Middle East conflict expands. And the U.S. economy unexpectedly loses jobs in February, adding fresh uncertainty to the macro outlook.

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Pressure at the pump

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 11:59:00 -0000

President Trump is brushing off a jump in gas prices, even as international markets brace for the steepest spike since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We unpack why the administration is betting the shock will be brief. Plus, why today’s jobs numbers could tell a very different story about the US economy.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war exposes fragility of Western aluminium market, by Andy Home

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Global stocks take a breather

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 11:33:00 -0000

Global stocks steadied on Wednesday despite crude jumping to its highest since June. Plus, Europe watches for an energy shock. And China sets its lowest GDP target since 1991, signaling deeper economic strain.

Today’s recommended read: Jet fuel's huge price surge points to coming pain from Iran war, by Clyde Russell

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Why aren’t investors fleeing to gold?

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 11:23:00 -0000

Gold isn’t rallying, oil isn’t spiking as much as expected, and Asia’s top-performing markets are suddenly collapsing as the conflict in the Middle East continues. Plus, Anna Szymanski and Mike Dolan explain why so many investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven.

Today’s recommended read: Gold flubs its lines amid Middle East mayhem by Mike Dolan

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Oil spikes and stocks slide

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 10:58:00 -0000

The widening Middle East war pushes oil and European gas prices sharply higher, rattling global markets for a second day. Treasury yields climb as inflation worries outweigh haven demand. Currency tensions escalate as Japan and Switzerland both threaten intervention.

Today’s recommended read: Dollar gets its mojo back - but only by default, Mike Dolan

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Special Edition: Iran

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 10:32:00 -0000

Energy markets enter crisis mode as conflict in Iran halts key shipping lanes and raises the threat of lasting supply disruption. Analysts warn crude could break into triple digits if the standoff continues. Risk assets retreat, and inflation worries creep back into bond markets.

Today’s recommended read: Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades, Ron Bousso

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Week Ahead: Shockwaves from Iran

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 12:46:00 -0000

Global oil and gas supplies are at risk from a widening conflict after Iran vows to avenge the killing of their supreme leader in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Energy prices are expected to jump when markets re-open and a prolonged crisis could send shockwaves through the global economy. Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid ⁠newsletter,⁠ and check out his columns on ⁠Reuters Open Interest⁠

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Week In Review: AI angst

Sat, 28 Feb 2026 10:00:00 -0000

An imagined dystopia of mass unemployment fuelled by artificial intelligence unnerves investors. Nvidia’s record‑breaking numbers fails to lift the mood. Plus, how global chip demand is reshaping markets from Seoul to Silicon Valley.

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Paramount’s Hollywood ending

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 11:27:00 -0000

Paramount‑Skydance secures Warner Bros. as Netflix bows out. Plus, Jack Dorsey's Block cuts nearly half its staff, calling it an AI reset. And, Anthropic won’t drop its AI safeguards, putting a $200M Pentagon deal on the line.

Today’s recommended read: Europe policymakers set for make or break decisions on industrial heat, Gavin Maguire

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Nvidia's 'meh' moment

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 11:01:00 -0000

Nvidia crushes expectations again but investors want more. Concerns about the AI economy overheating and Nvidia’s reliance on a small number of customers overhang the chipmaker. Plus, Iran talks in Geneva and Japanese politics and the yen.

Today’s recommended read: To win Europe's embrace, China needs to uncap the yuan, Mike Dolan

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AI relief rally

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 10:48:00 -0000

Anthropic’s new plug‑ins sent software stocks rallying - just weeks after the same AI fears wiped billions off the sector. Nvidia reports earnings today and a 5% swing could mean $230 billion in market value. Plus, U.S. President Donald Trump used the State of the Union to call out Big Tech’s power use, hinting that hyperscalers may have to build their own energy supply.

Today’s recommended read: Maybe the global economy isn't all about AI, Mike Dolan

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Fate of the union

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 10:30:00 -0000

Trump’s uneven tariff guidance provides little clarity before his State of the Union speech, and a sharp tech-led decline hits Wall Street as investors digest a viral worst‑case AI report. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk drops 16% after its latest obesity drug disappoints in trials.

Today’s recommended read: **Next Fed move a hike? Bostic's parting shot raises alarm, Mike Dolan**

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Levy let die

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 10:56:00 -0000

A dramatic weekend of tariff reversals leaves markets searching for direction, with questions mounting over U.S. fiscal planning. Meanwhile, oil prices retreat before the next round of U.S.-Iran discussions.

Today’s recommended read: **US LNG export surge and soft China demand meet record European imports, Clyde Russell**

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Week Ahead: Chip check

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 11:00:00 -0000

The world’s most valuable company reports earnings this week, and investors are nervous. With AI spending ballooning and just four customers driving most of Nvidia’s revenue, the market wants answers.

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Week in Review: Tariff takedown

Sat, 21 Feb 2026 11:00:00 -0000

A Supreme Court ruling overturns some of Trump's sweeping U.S. tariffs, prompting potential importer refunds. Plus, U.S. inflation remains stubborn and fourth‑quarter GDP lands sharply below expectations, reflecting slowing economic momentum at the end of 2025.

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Shutdown shadow

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 11:26:00 -0000

A 43‑day shutdown delayed U.S. GDP numbers, but the economy is still expected to be growing briskly. We look at why higher‑income Americans may finally be pulling back on spending, what the Fed will be watching in today’s PCE data. Plus how fresh strains in private credit and rising debt worries are adding a new layer of uncertainty.

Today’s recommended read: Morning Bid: Oil spoils tech tonic, Mike Dolan

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Nvidia’s Meta match

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 11:08:00 -0000

A mystery‑priced chip deal between Meta and Nvidia boosts Big Tech. Geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher. And even with AI spending exploding, Fed officials still aren’t convinced it will tame inflation anytime soon.

Today’s recommended read: Hawks circle as top two central banks switch leaders, Mike Dolan

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Changing of Lagarde

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 11:21:00 -0000

Christine Lagarde is reportedly considering an early exit as president of the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, Wall Street returns from its break with fresh anxiety about AI’s impact on Big Tech and future interest rates. Tonight’s Fed Minutes might offer a clue.

Today’s recommended read: China isn’t importing any US LNG, but it's still in the game by Ron Bousso

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Wall Street wakes up

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 10:36:00 -0000

Global markets return from a quiet long weekend on a softer note, gold and oil ease as U.S.–Iran talks begin in Geneva, and slowing UK wage growth boosts expectations the Bank of England may move toward a March rate cut.

Today’s recommended read: 'Global euro' may have to come with some FX lift by Mike Dolan

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Goldilocks zone

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 11:09:00 -0000

U.S. inflation edges toward the Fed’s target while Japan’s government faces weak growth that underscores its push for fresh stimulus. Meanwhile, energy markets brace for volatility as a low‑expectation second round of U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva threatens to sway oil prices.

Today’s recommended read: Suffocating Western pressure may finally force Russian oil output cuts by Ron Bousso

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Week Ahead: Horse power

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 11:00:00 -0000

A global rotation shakes up markets as money moves from pricey growth stocks into value. U.S. GDP and Walmart results may reveal whether momentum can last, and China’s Lunar New Year brings a surprising yuan rally that adds fresh intrigue to the week ahead.

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Week in Review: Irreplaceable?

Sat, 14 Feb 2026 11:00:00 -0000

From legal tech to finance, AI anxiety spread fast this week after another startup claimed it could do the job of entire teams. Plus, a rosy U.S. jobs report hides a much weaker white‑collar picture and a sliding dollar.

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AI phobia

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 10:50:00 -0000

Investors have turned from AI euphoria to AI paranoia, after one startup’s software demo sparked selloffs across insurance, logistics, and even Apple. Plus, fresh January price hikes and lingering Trump‑era tariffs mean today’s CPI reading could be a make‑or‑break moment for the Fed.

Today’s recommended read: What would it take for the Fed to raise rates?, by Mike Dolan

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Rate expectations

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 11:07:00 -0000

January’s blockbuster jobs report shattered the weak labor narrative and pushed expected Fed cuts further out. Add a CBO outlook with deeper deficits and higher‑for‑longer yields, and the path to 2026 rate cuts looks even murkier.

Today’s recommended read: Trump rate hopes and CBO budget math don't chime, by Mike Dolan

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Job jitters

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 10:40:00 -0000

Main Street is wobbling, from layoffs to weak retail sales. At the same time, TSMC reports blistering growth. Plus, a new AI tax‑management tool sends wealth‑manager stocks tumbling.

Today’s recommended read: Euro and yuan global ambitions hasten the dollar drop by Mike Dolan

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CapEx America

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 10:52:00 -0000

The renminbi jumps ahead of the Lunar New Year, big tech firms tap the bond market for major funding rounds, and UK politics stir brief market jitters as questions swirl around Prime Minister Starmer’s position.

Today’s recommended read: Roaring global growth train emerging from 2026 fog by Mike Dolan

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Tokyo drift

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 10:36:00 -0000

Japan’s ruling party secures its biggest majority ever, powering a rally in Tokyo shares while bonds and the yen stay steady. Wall Street looks to extend Friday’s explosive gains. And attention shifts to Wednesday’s employment numbers as debates rage over AI’s long‑term impact on jobs.

Today’s recommended read: **As global metals fever spreads, markets buckle under the heat, Andy Home**

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Week Ahead: Super Poll Sunday in Japan

Sun, 08 Feb 2026 08:00:00 -0000

This upcoming week, markets brace for Japan’s election fallout, fresh U.S. jobs and inflation data, and continued turbulence in AI‑driven tech stocks—three forces colliding to shape investor sentiment and test confidence across global markets.

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Week in Review: Friday flip

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 11:40:00 -0000

After a brutal week for tech, Wall Street suddenly flips. The Dow crosses 50,000 for the first time, chip stocks roar back, and AI fears give way to bargain‑hunting. We explain what actually changed — and why investors still aren’t convinced the turbulence is over.

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AI hangover

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 10:54:00 -0000

After months of optimism, markets are suddenly uneasy about who actually benefits from AI. With the monthly jobs report delayed, layoff notices and claims hint at a softer jobs market — and a $49 weight‑loss pill undercuts one of Europe’s biggest companies.

Today’s recommended read: China tightens clean tech grip with growing EV export reach, by Gavin Maguire

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Bit shaken

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 10:57:00 -0000

Crypto prices slip alongside a broad tech sell‑off, blurring the line between Bitcoin and risk assets — plus the ECB weighs its next move.

Today’s recommended read: US inflation isn't subsiding. It's heating up again, by Mike Dolan

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Tech wreck

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 10:54:00 -0000

A new AI release rattled software stocks and wiped billions off company values. Walmart’s trillion‑dollar milestone, and the signs the global economy may be heating up again.

Today’s recommended read: Warning from 'Down Under' may unsettle the Fed by Mike Dolan

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AI of the storm

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 11:01:00 -0000

OpenAI is reportedly unhappy with Nvidia’s newest chips, while Musk combines SpaceX and X‑AI into a trillion‑dollar IPO vehicle. Tariff cuts send the rupee and Indian stocks higher, but doubts remain over India’s pledge to ramp up U.S. imports and shift away from Russian crude.

Today’s recommended read: Dollar risk premium is rebuilding by Mike Dolan

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Warsh's balancing act

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 10:58:00 -0000

Donald Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve is no fan of the central bank’s quantitative easing policy. Mike Dolan and Anna Szymanski join today’s Morning Bid to explain why Kevin Warsh’s concerns over the Fed's balance sheet might be rippling through markets everything from gold to oil to crypto.

Today’s recommended read: How soon before Trump dubs Kevin Warsh 'clueless'? by Mike Dolan

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Week ahead: Groundhog day?

Sun, 01 Feb 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Europe’s central banks meet, the US checks in on jobs, and Big Tech reports earnings continue.

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Week in Review: Everyone's talking about Kevin

Sat, 31 Jan 2026 10:00:00 -0000

Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair steadied markets and lifted the dollar after a volatile week, while questions linger over rate‑cut expectations and Fed independence. Meanwhile, Elon Musk considers major mergers across SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla.

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Chair‑in‑waiting

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 11:12:00 -0000

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve. Plus, Apple delivers a blowout quarter driven by strong iPhone demand in Asia, even as chip shortages loom.

Today’s recommended read: Old-economy demands may stall emerging market decarbonization, by Gavin Maguire

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Hold steady

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 11:25:00 -0000

The Fed holds steady and markets shrug. Oil and gold climb as Iran tensions return. Meta earnings surge while Microsoft slides.

Today’s recommended read: Europe’s euro worry a mirror of US dollar dilemma?, by Mike Dolan

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Dollar drop

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 11:03:00 -0000

The dollar nurses steep losses and President Trump says it’s “great.” The Fed steps into its first policy meeting of the year under intense scrutiny over inflation, independence, and who might replace Jerome Powell. And Microsoft and Meta’s latest earnings put fresh focus on how the AI boom is reshaping Big Tech.

Today’s recommended read: Be careful what you wish for on a weaker dollar, by Mike Dolan

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Seoul searching

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 10:25:00 -0000

Trump signals he could hike tariffs on South Korea, unsettling regional markets. Microsoft’s latest AI hardware sparks fresh questions over who leads the chipmaking race. And a U.S. winter storm drives energy prices sharply higher amid production shutdowns.‌

Today’s recommended read: World's 'middle powers' de-risking from America, Mike Dolan

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Gold rush

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 10:49:00 -0000

Gold hits an unprecedented $5,000 as safe‑haven demand, central‑bank buying and political uncertainty intensify. Traders eye possible coordinated action to prop up the yen. And rising trade friction returns as Trump threatens 100% tariffs on Canada over a China trade arrangement.

Today’s recommended read: Battle for the Fed' heats up to challenge rate horizon, Mike Dolan

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Week Ahead: Powell play

Sun, 25 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

The Fed isn’t expected to make any changes to interest rates, but all eyes are on the central bank’s chair, Jerome Powell, as President Trump ramps up the pressure. And with four of the Magnificent Seven reporting this week, markets will find out whether the AI boom still has momentum.

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Week in Review: Trust issues

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

From Greenland brinkmanship to tariff threats and a Supreme Court test of Fed independence, investors were asking one big question this week: what happens to markets when political power strains alliances, institutions, and the trust that keeps borrowing cheap and volatility contained?

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Dimon in the rough

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 10:50:00 -0000

European leaders shelve retaliatory action after Trump backs off Greenland, Intel struggles to deliver the chips powering the AI boom and President Trump escalates his long‑running feud with Wall Street by suing JPMorgan and its CEO Jamie Dimon.

Today’s recommended read: Will the world cut its $27 trillion 'long USA' position? by Jamie McGeever

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TACO Thursday

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 11:13:00 -0000

Global markets bounce back after President Trump abandons his tariff threats against Europe in a return of what investors call the “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) trade. Plus, the Supreme Court signals it won’t let him fire Fed governor Lisa Cook and investors shift back to earnings season with Intel on deck.

Today’s recommended read: Greenland storm barrels into 'hyper bull' market by Mike Dolan

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Curve your enthusiasm

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 10:47:00 -0000

U.S. Treasury yields jump as tensions over Greenland and tariff threats rattle markets. Plus, the Supreme Court prepares to wade into the battle over Fed independence, and a sell-off in Netflix’s stock may be a warning to the tech industry.

Today’s recommended read: Europe’s energy weak spot reemerges in Greenland dispute by Ron Bousso

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American friction

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 10:32:00 -0000

Global markets sour as traders dump U.S. assets in response to rising tariff tensions between Washington and Europe. Japan’s bond market piles on pressure as yields surge toward multi‑year highs. And later today, Netflix steps into the spotlight with results that could swing tech sentiment in either direction.

Today’s recommended read: Trump's embrace of oil industry is turning into an awkward grip, Ron Bousso

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Frozen assets

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 10:27:00 -0000

A new tariff threat over Greenland puts the U.S. and Europe on edge. Meanwhile, Trump’s trip to Davos raises fresh questions about the next Fed chair, and China’s 5% growth headline masks weak demand and a cooling economy.

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Week Ahead: No business like snow business

Sun, 18 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

President Donald Trump’s trip to Switzerland sets the tone for the week as business leaders gather at Davos. Plus, the U.S. Supreme Court is preparing to hear from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, and heavyweight tech earnings later in the week give markets plenty to navigate.

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Week in Review: All roads lead to Jerome

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

Business leaders and global central bank chiefs stood up for Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, who was threatened with an indictment at the beginning of the week. Traders were also watching geopolitical hotspots - from Greenland to Iran - and a flurry of results from the biggest banks on Wall Street.

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Chips Ahoy

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 10:17:00 -0000

Taiwan announces a $250 billion US investment deal focused on semiconductor production. Plus, oil markets calm as expectations of a US strike on Iran fade, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report blowout earnings driven by a resurgence in deal-making.

Today’s recommended read: Japan's long-awaited return to normalcy brings uncertainty, volatility, by Jamie McGeever

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Chips don't lie

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 10:52:00 -0000

TSMC’s stellar earnings buoy tech sentiment after some volatility in the sector yesterday. Plus, Reuters sat down with President Trump in the White House for a wide-ranging conversation on everything from Iran to the Federal Reserve - we tell you how markets are responding to his comments.

Today’s recommended read: Is that it? The great dollar reversal fizzles

by Mike Dolan

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Credit where credit's due

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 11:05:00 -0000

JPMorgan warns President Trump’s proposed cap on credit card rates would hurt consumers as its shares sink on earnings. Investors digest softer U.S. core inflation even as rising food and energy costs keep pressure on the Fed. Plus, China’s record trade surplus is reshaping global flows.

Today’s recommended read: Trump's mortgage foray at odds with aggravating Treasuries by Mike Dolan

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FedExes deliver a message

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 10:30:00 -0000

Three former Federal Reserve chairs are warning that attacks against the central bank could cause inflation to jump. Meanwhile, Trump is upping the ante against Iran, threatening to issue tariffs against its trading partners. Plus, traders are watching the yen today after Japan’s prime minister reportedly hinted at early elections.

Today’s recommended read: Fighting the Fed, Trump tries credit easing by decree by Mike Dolan

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Powell’s Fed up

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 10:30:00 -0000

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the unprecedented threat of a criminal indictment “should be seen in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure”. Meanwhile, December’s U.S. jobs report shows weak hiring but steady unemployment, and unrest in Iran is sending oil prices swinging.

Today’s recommended read: Big Oil offers reality check to Trump’s Venezuela dream by Ron Bousso

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Week Ahead: Hey big lender

Sun, 11 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

Big banks kick off earnings season with expectations of blockbuster results after a record year for M&A and IPOs. Investors eye inflation data for clues on Fed rate cuts, while tech watchers await TSMC’s numbers to see if the AI boom will keep rolling along.

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Week in Review: What’s mine is yours

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

This week, Rio Tinto revived merger talks with Glencore, eyeing a more than $200B deal amid soaring copper demand. Warner Bros continued to resist Paramount’s advances. And defense stocks climbed after Trump pledged $1.5T in military spending.

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Copper bottomed

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 11:03:00 -0000

A spike in copper prices is reviving talks of a mining mega‑merger that could reshape global supply. Elsewhere, investors brace for a pivotal tariff ruling and fresh signals on whether the U.S. labor market is quietly cracking.

Today’s recommended read: Murky US jobs data risk deepening historic Fed divisions, Jamie McGeever

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Stocks locked or loaded?

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 10:35:00 -0000

Trump takes aim at defense companies and Wall Street landlords, jolting markets. Bond investors pile in as yields slide, jobs data looms, and the AI trade keeps roaring - even as signs of fatigue creep in.

Today’s recommended read: Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ targets China, US oil firms could pay the price, Ron Bousso

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Looking down the barrel

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 10:16:00 -0000

Markets react to plans to ship stranded Venezuelan oil to the U.S., reigniting oversupply fears. Attention now turns to U.S. labour data and jitters in Asia after China tightens export rules.

Today’s recommended read: Trump's Venezuela oil grab revives 'petrodollar' debate, Jamie McGeever

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AI, Robot

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 10:25:00 -0000

Nvidia and automakers take centre stage at CES with big bets on AI and autonomy, while the dollar drifts as investors refocus on U.S. data and Fed easing. Meanwhile, a $400,000 Venezuela wager shines a light on the risks - and reach - of prediction markets.

Today’s recommended read: Trump offers US oil companies a poisoned chalice in Venezuela, Ron Bousso

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Venezuela: Trump's pipeline dream?

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 10:36:00 -0000

U.S. action in Venezuela sets the stage for a major shift in global energy flows. But rebuilding Venezuelan output from 900,000 barrels per day to its former glory will take years, billions of dollars, and political stability that’s still far from certain.

Today’s recommended read: US oil refiners win, Chinese rivals lose in Trump’s Venezuela strike, Ron Bousso

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Stampede or stumble: how will 2026 test stock bulls?

Thu, 01 Jan 2026 11:00:00 -0000

Investors are bullish, cash levels are low, and fiscal stimulus is set to supercharge growth. But with inflation still sticky and Trump’s policies only beginning to bite, could this be the year the bull market stumbles? Anna Szymanski and Mike Dolan discuss on this special Year Ahead episode of Reuters Morning Bid.

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OpenA-IPO?

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 10:45:00 -0000

Fed minutes reveal sharp divisions on rate cuts, leaving markets cautious and the dollar under pressure. Plus, Warner Bros looks set to reject Paramount’s latest hostile bid. Meanwhile, IPO momentum is building, with potential record-breaking listings from OpenAI and SpaceX coming in the new year.

Today’s recommended read: What just happened? Ten charts to help make sense of markets in 2025 by Anna Szymanski

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Yuan direction

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 10:33:00 -0000

The Chinese onshore yuan has reached its highest level against the U.S. dollar in years, while silver and gold swing wildly on thin year-end liquidity. Plus, traders are watching geopolitical flashpoints - from Iran to Taiwan - going into one of the last trading days of the year.

Today’s recommended read: Tariffs, China, and the dollar: What Wall Street got wrong in 2025 by Jamie McGeever

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Silver streak

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Precious metals are shining, with silver surging to $80 an ounce and outpacing gold as investors hedge against uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts. Markets now await the Fed’s meeting minutes for clues on policy shifts, even as leadership changes loom. Meanwhile, dealmakers stayed busy through the holidays - could next year break M&A records?

Today’s recommended read: Every mineral is critical in the new metals age by Andy Home

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Tariffs, tech and tanks: Morning Bid's 2025 Year in Review

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 10:40:00 -0000

Join Amanda Cooper and Mike Dolan for a special edition of Reuters Morning Bid, as they look back on a whirlwind year for global markets. From Trump’s return to the White House and the ripple effects on trade and tariffs, to the AI-fueled stock boom and Europe’s historic rearmament, 2025 has been a year to remember for traders.

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Novo tips the scales

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Markets are waiting today to see how the U.S. economy performed in Q3. Plus, Novo Nordisk has capped off a difficult year with a decisive victory, with the FDA approving sale of its weight-loss pill for U.S. consumers. And Japan may have calmed its currency markets - for now.

Today’s recommended read: Guns and gold win in 2025, but other 'safety' trades bomb by Mike Dolan

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Yen again?

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 10:25:00 -0000

Japan’s yen keeps sliding despite last week’s rate hike, raising the specter of government intervention. Meanwhile, Washington’s campaign against Venezuelan oil tankers is keeping energy markets on edge. And with Christmas week underway, traders are still waiting for the famed Santa rally to appear.

Today’s recommended read: Oil’s geopolitical premium vanished in 2025 - and may not return by Ron Bousso

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The Week Ahead: GDP under the tree

Sun, 21 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0000

A backlog of U.S. economic indicators will hit markets this week, including GDP, consumer confidence, factory orders, and jobless claims. What story will they tell? Plus, geopolitical events are continuing to stir up energy markets ahead of the holidays.

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Week in Review: Three hawkish banks (and a partridge in a pear tree)

Sat, 20 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0000

Central banks sound hawkish heading into 2026. Plus, Warner Brothers rejects Paramount’s hostile bid, and Trump Media bets $6 billion on fusion energy.

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May I have this ByteDance?

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 10:45:00 -0000

The Bank of Japan ends a 30-year era of near-zero interest rates with a historic hike in an effort to tackle sticky inflation. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation may be sliding - but the data is leaving some economists scratching their heads. Plus, TikTok may have found a new set of ownership partners for its U.S. business.

Today’s recommended read: Five charts that defined agricultural markets in 2025 by Karen Braun

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Inflation nation

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 10:29:00 -0000

AI stocks are taking another beating as Oracle and Nvidia lead a bruising tech selloff into year-end. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation is set to show prices still running hot, and Europe’s central banks deliver their final policy calls of 2025.

Today’s recommended read: BoE needs to rein in rising real rates, Mike Dolan

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Crude awakening

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 10:26:00 -0000

Crude oil rebounds on talk of a Venezuelan blockade, but the bigger story is a looming global glut. Plus, US jobs data muddies the waters for markets, and Warner Brothers is facing a blockbuster takeover decision.

Today’s recommended read: Investment herd got it mostly right a year ago by Mike Dolan

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No sleep for Wall Street

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 10:28:00 -0000

Wall Street faces a double dose of payroll data as investors hunt for clues on the Fed’s next move. Meanwhile, Nasdaq pushes for near-24/7 trading and Ford pivots on EVs amid Trump's policy shifts.

Today’s recommended read: US Treasuries rebuilding risk premia, Mike Dolan

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The great stall of China

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 10:37:00 -0000

Beijing’s property woes and weak retail data weigh on Asia. Meanwhile, investors face a tense start to the last full trading week of the year as U.S. markets wrestle with AI anxiety and bond market jitters before jobs data.

Today’s recommended read: Sterling laps up UK-Japan rate squeeze, Mike Dolan

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The Week Ahead: A tale of two banks

Sun, 14 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0000

Two central banks in two major economies are expected this week to head in different directions, with Japan likely to raise and the UK expected to cut interest rates. Plus, traders are anticipating long-awaited US employment data, and the possible arrival of a so-called Santa Rally to finish the year.

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Week in Review: Bubble trouble

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0000

Oracle’s surprise spending spree reignites concerns about an AI bubble and debt-fueled tech growth. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates but signals a pause ahead, and Japan’s borrowing costs hit an 18-year high as markets brace for a hike.

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Mickey Mouse meets the machines

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 10:33:00 -0000

In a watershed moment for Hollywood, Walt Disney is letting OpenAI use iconic characters like Mickey Mouse, Cinderella and Yoda as part of a $1 billion deal. Oracle slumps as its massive spending and weak forecasts fan doubts over how quickly big bets on AI will pay off. And the oil market takes Washington’s pressure campaign against Venezuela in stride.

Today’s recommended read: Permian to retain US oil crown even after hitting peak by Ron Bousso

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Silver linings

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 10:38:00 -0000

The Fed gives markets the rate cut they were expecting, but Powell’s guidance hints at a tricky road ahead. Plus, Oracle stumbles on AI spending plans, and silver hits a record as investors seek safe havens.

Today’s recommended read: Fade the Fed, global rates are heading higher, Mike Dolan

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Ready, Fed, go

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 10:46:00 -0000

Another rate cut is priced in, but the real story is the Fed’s guidance for next year - and who will deliver it. Plus, Canada signals the end of its easing cycle, and Oracle’s results reveal cracks in AI’s debt-fueled growth.

Today’s recommended read: AI masking the economy cuts both ways, Mike Dolan

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Chips to China

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 10:40:00 -0000

Nvidia wins approval from the White House to sell its second-most-powerful chip to China, raising new questions about the AI race. Plus, oil prices slide as Ukraine peace talks continue. And in Hollywood, Paramount’s hostile bid for Warner Brothers is setting up a dramatic showdown with Netflix.

Today’s recommended read: Texas makes clean power breakthrough as solar output overtakes coal by Gavin Maguire

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The rate cut before Christmas?

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 10:53:00 -0000

Markets are betting big on a rate cut this week as the Fed meets for its final decision of the year. Meanwhile, China’s exports rebound with a record $1 trillion trade surplus, and Netflix’s $72 billion Warner Brothers deal raises questions about antitrust and corporate debt.

Today’s recommended read: As Fed meets, elusive r-star still packs a punch, Mike Dolan

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The Week Ahead: The Fed takes center stage

Sun, 07 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0000

All eyes are on Fed chairman Jay Powell, whose rate-setting committee meets this week and the central bank's independence continues to be a hot topic of debate. As oil markets are roiled by the prospect of Ukraine peace, the potential for equities to overheat the entire financial system is also coming into focus. Join hosts Anna Szymanski and Mike Dolan for Reuters Morning Bid: The Week Ahead.

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Week in Review: Netflix streams big

Sat, 06 Dec 2025 11:00:00 -0000

Netflix stuns Wall Street by winning the bidding war for Warner Brothers. Plus, Europe takes steps towards building a multilateral defense bank, and Kevin Hassett takes the lead in the race for Fed chair. Join Anousha Sakoui and Elena Casas for Morning Bid: Week in Review.

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Meta gets a reality check

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 10:38:00 -0000

Mark Zuckerberg is scaling back on the Metaverse as investors demand frugality. Meanwhile, Netflix pulls ahead in the Warner Brothers deal, and the Fed’s inflation numbers could seal the case for a holiday rate cut.

Today’s recommended read: U.S. consumer delinquency glass is half full, Jamie McGeever

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Dollar slips, Microsoft trips

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 11:02:00 -0000

The dollar just logged its worst day since October as weak U.S. jobs data and Fed uncertainty weigh on markets. Meanwhile, Japan’s 30-year bond auction draws its strongest demand in six years, and Microsoft stumbles on concerns about its software targets.

Today’s recommended read: Can AI break a 150-year trend without overheating the economy?, Mike Dolan

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Hassett allocation

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 10:46:00 -0000

Markets digest Trump’s Fed chair tease and oil is back in focus after Kremlin talks. Plus, Boeing’s stock takes flight on cash flow optimism after years of turbulence.

Today’s recommended read: Bond termites, not vigilantes, are the big risk, Mike Dolan

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Gravity knocks on Bitcoin's door

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 11:20:00 -0000

December isn’t feeling so merry for Wall Street. Investors are on edge after a slide in cryptocurrencies and a global bond selloff triggered by a looming interest rate hike in Japan. Plus, Tesla’s European sales slump continues.

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Today’s recommended read: OPEC+ to spark spending race with new oil quota system, Ron Bousso

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December starts in risk-off mode

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 10:49:00 -0000

Hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan put stock markets under pressure. Record-breaking Black Friday spending suggests U.S. shoppers are still splurging online - but inflation and shaky confidence tell a more complicated story. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is holding oil output steady heading into 2026.

Today’s recommended read: Hassett may be 'shadow Fed Chair' for five months, Mike Dolan

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The Week Ahead: Fed rumors and AI rivalries

Sun, 30 Nov 2025 11:00:00 -0000

December rolls in, with big questions looming: Who's ahead in the Fed race? Which tech titan takes the AI crown? And what might 2026 look like for markets? Join hosts Anna Szymanski and Mike Dolan for Reuters Morning Bid: The Week Ahead.

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Week in Review: Place your Fed chair bets

Sat, 29 Nov 2025 11:00:00 -0000

From Black Friday shoppers to the data center failure that froze futures, and a looming Fed decision – the market news didn’t stop this Thanksgiving week. Join Nell Mackenzie and Elena Casas for Morning Bid: Week in Review.

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Black Friday’s $78 billion question

Fri, 28 Nov 2025 11:35:00 -0000

Shoppers hunt bargains while markets hunt stability. A CME tech glitch freezes futures, the dollar faces its worst week in months, and oil is in focus as Ukraine peace talks swirl. Plus, why your Black Friday discount might not be as deep as you hoped.

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The AI wars

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 11:06:00 -0000

The AI wars just got real - Alphabet is muscling in on Nvidia’s chip turf, and markets are watching every move. Meanwhile, President Trump may name a new Fed chair before Christmas, and investors brace for the UK’s tax-heavy budget. Join Mike Dolan and Elena Casas as they break down the big stories moving global markets today.

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The $4 trillion club

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 10:42:00 -0000

Markets are buzzing as Fed officials stoke expectations of a December rate cut - so why is the dollar playing it cool? Plus, Alphabet edges closer to the $4 trillion club alongside Apple and Nvidia, and retail sales data drops just in time for Black Friday. Join hosts Peter Devlin and Amanda Cooper for all the stories shaping your trading week.

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Fed cut back in the mix

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 11:07:00 -0000

In our first episode of our new daily show, hosts Mike Dolan and Anna Szymanski dig into why markets are suddenly betting on a December Fed rate cut and digest what the Ukraine plan means for oil prices. Find out everything you need to know to start your trading day as investors get read for a volatile Thanksgiving week. Follow us on your favorite platform for markets news straight from our newsroom.

Today’s recommended read: Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries

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Introducing Reuters Morning Bid

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 17:53:00 -0000

Markets move fast. And every shift tells a story. Reuters Morning Bid brings you everything you need to know about markets, business and finance. Join our smartest financial minds live from the Reuters markets desk every morning. Host Mike Dolan will be joined by colleagues across the globe to give you the smartest takes on the news, trends and data points that are top of mind for investors.

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest.

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