The Dick & Paul Show en Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it). https://megaphone.imgix.net/podcasts/1f28d0be-926c-11f1-bac5-9387fb0555c4/image/8663265a6a742ba6bdcd1eb46adf3f7f.png?ixlib=rails-4.3.1&max-w=3000&max-h=3000&fit=crop&auto=format,compress The Dick & Paul Show episodic Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it). Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it).

]]> RiskReversal Media dickandpaulshow@riskreversal.com Prediction Markets & The "Big Score" Economy In this episode, Dick and Paul dig into why "lottery-style" speculation is exploding — from South Korea's illegal 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF mania (where a huge share of active young traders are piling in despite a government ban) to the boom in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where over 96% of bettors end up losing money to sophisticated market makers like Jane Street and Citadel. They break down what an "edge" actually means (and why most people who think they have one don't), why the bid-ask spread is quietly eating traders alive, and how a growing wealth gap plus economic unease is pushing people to chase a "big score." Along the way, they connect it all to a fascinating idea from Cornell mathematician Steven Strogatz on synchronization and mimicry — the same force behind fireflies blinking in unison, viral frozen yogurt lines, and crowded Yosemite trails — and what it means for herd behavior in markets. They close with practical thoughts on how to recognize when you're mimicking the crowd instead of thinking for yourself, and what to do about it. --- Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it). Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0000 full 2 Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky In this episode, Dick and Paul dig into why "lottery-style" speculation is exploding — from South Korea's illegal 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF mania (where a huge share of active young traders are piling in despite a government ban) to the boom in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where over 96% of bettors end up losing money to sophisticated market makers like Jane Street and Citadel. They break down what an "edge" actually means (and why most people who think they have one don't), why the bid-ask spread is quietly eating traders alive, and how a growing wealth gap plus economic unease is pushing people to chase a "big score." Along the way, they connect it all to a fascinating idea from Cornell mathematician Steven Strogatz on synchronization and mimicry — the same force behind fireflies blinking in unison, viral frozen yogurt lines, and crowded Yosemite trails — and what it means for herd behavior in markets. They close with practical thoughts on how to recognize when you're mimicking the crowd instead of thinking for yourself, and what to do about it. --- Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it). In this episode, Dick and Paul dig into why "lottery-style" speculation is exploding — from South Korea's illegal 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF mania (where a huge share of active young traders are piling in despite a government ban) to the boom in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, where over 96% of bettors end up losing money to sophisticated market makers like Jane Street and Citadel. They break down what an "edge" actually means (and why most people who think they have one don't), why the bid-ask spread is quietly eating traders alive, and how a growing wealth gap plus economic unease is pushing people to chase a "big score." Along the way, they connect it all to a fascinating idea from Cornell mathematician Steven Strogatz on synchronization and mimicry — the same force behind fireflies blinking in unison, viral frozen yogurt lines, and crowded Yosemite trails — and what it means for herd behavior in markets. They close with practical thoughts on how to recognize when you're mimicking the crowd instead of thinking for yourself, and what to do about it.

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Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it).

]]> 1883 The Barriers to Mediocrity Have Collapsed Dick and Paul dig into why general-purpose AI models are doing to robotics what they already did to language — and why that's a bigger deal than the humanoid-robot hype suggests. They trace the throughline from Chinese EVs to laundry-folding robots to Rich Sutton's "Bitter Lesson," then make the case that cheap, general-purpose automation is set to collapse wages across the board. Along the way: a takedown of the "infinite abundance" argument coming from Silicon Valley and Washington alike, a detour through Veblen's theory of the leisure class, and a prediction that doesn't sugarcoat where this is headed. Show Notes China’s ‘Insane’ Car Market Flooded With Hundreds of New Models (Bloomberg) America has become an entrepreneur’s paradise (The Economist) 3hrs of Memo Folding Laundry (Sunday Robotics YT) --- Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it). Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:00:00 -0000 full Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky Dick and Paul dig into why general-purpose AI models are doing to robotics what they already did to language — and why that's a bigger deal than the humanoid-robot hype suggests. They trace the throughline from Chinese EVs to laundry-folding robots to Rich Sutton's "Bitter Lesson," then make the case that cheap, general-purpose automation is set to collapse wages across the board. Along the way: a takedown of the "infinite abundance" argument coming from Silicon Valley and Washington alike, a detour through Veblen's theory of the leisure class, and a prediction that doesn't sugarcoat where this is headed. Show Notes China’s ‘Insane’ Car Market Flooded With Hundreds of New Models (Bloomberg) America has become an entrepreneur’s paradise (The Economist) 3hrs of Memo Folding Laundry (Sunday Robotics YT) --- Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it). Dick and Paul dig into why general-purpose AI models are doing to robotics what they already did to language — and why that's a bigger deal than the humanoid-robot hype suggests. They trace the throughline from Chinese EVs to laundry-folding robots to Rich Sutton's "Bitter Lesson," then make the case that cheap, general-purpose automation is set to collapse wages across the board. Along the way: a takedown of the "infinite abundance" argument coming from Silicon Valley and Washington alike, a detour through Veblen's theory of the leisure class, and a prediction that doesn't sugarcoat where this is headed.


Show Notes


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Two of the sharpest minds in tech, Dick Costolo and Paul Kedrosky, pull back the curtain on AI, startups, and the future that’s rushing toward us. With insider access, fascinating guests, and a healthy dose of irreverence, they’ll make you laugh while they explain how the world might end (and how we might still save it).

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