The US winter wheat crop is struggling, with only 30% rated good to excellent, according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress Report. The April cattle on feed report showed 11.6 million head, with 7.26 million steers and 4.32 million heifers. Egg production in March increased by 5% to 9.22 billion eggs. Dry weather forecasts were noted for parts of Nebraska, Colorado, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, with winds gusting up to 60 mph and humidity as low as 6%.

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Wheat prices are rising due to reduced acreage, especially in Australia. Fertilizer prices and weather conditions are also influencing planting decisions. Cattle and calves on feed slightly decreased year-over-year, with placements in feedlots down 7%. Live and feeder cattle futures declined, while cash trade picked up. Weather warnings include freeze alerts across the Midwest and red flag warnings for dry conditions in several states.

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Pre-weekend profit-taking influenced trade, with energy markets softening due to ceasefires in Israel-Lebanon and US-Iran. Soybean sales dropped to the lowest since the marketing year began, with significant purchases from Egypt, Costa Rica, Indonesia, Canada, and Japan. Corn sales rose 3% to 1.4 million metric tons, with major buyers including Japan and South Korea. Wheat sales fell 39% to 100,300 metric tons, with notable purchases from Nigeria and Vietnam. Hog futures were pressured by rising culling in China. Freeze warnings were issued for parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.

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Wheat is leading the market due to US Plains weather stress and lower global production forecasts. Soybean spread activities pressured nearby contracts. Early US planting raised expectations for an earlier harvest. Corn remained unchanged amid ethanol output and inventory increases. Cattle saw elevated technical positions, with live cattle slightly firmer than feeders. Dry weather warnings were issued in the central US, with strong winds and low humidity. Listeners were encouraged to read more at agriculture.com and subscribe to the podcast.

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Listen to the SF Daily podcast for today, April 15, 2026, with host Lorrie Boyer. These quick and informative episodes cover the commodity markets, weather, and the big things happening in agriculture each morning.

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Commodity traders noted a lack of fresh bearish or bullish news, with the energy complex trading in the red, adding pressure to the ag sector. US soybean planting is ahead of last year, with 814,562 metric tons inspected for overseas delivery in the week ending April 9. Corn assessments totaled 1.78 million metric tons, down from the previous week. Wheat inspections fell to 320,797 tons from 342,884 tons a week earlier. Livestock markets faced pressure from inflation and future demand concerns. Severe weather alerts were issued for Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, and Texas, with potential for flooding and critical fire conditions.

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Grain futures are supported by concerns over rising global input costs and steady export demand. Wheat fields in the southern plains may be abandoned, tightening supply. New crop contracts in soybeans are leading gains, with speculators reducing net long positions in corn and beans. The March consumer price index rose 3.3%, driven by energy costs up 10.9%. Weather warnings for strong winds and low humidity in the central US were issued. Live cattle futures closed higher, and feeder cattle saw gains despite strong winds.

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The USDA's April WASDE report maintained corn ending stocks at 2.1207 billion bushels, raised the average cash corn price to $4.15/bushel, and increased soybean use by 35 million bushels. Soybean sales to China, Japan, and Egypt were significant, while corn and wheat sales improved. Wheat imports increased, and exports saw a 9% rise. Livestock markets showed mixed trends, with cattle finding support on the 100-day moving average.

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The US wheat crop is under significant stress, with fields in poor condition unlikely to benefit from forecasted rains. The soy complex is firmer, led by a rebound in soy oil, while corn is supported by technical strength and domestic demand. The April WASDA report is expected to be released, with traders anticipating minimal changes. Ethanol production rose to 1.116 million barrels per day, with inventories at 26.053 million barrels. Cattle finishing was higher, supported by cheaper feed grains and reduced border reopening odds, while hogs declined. Flooding warnings were issued for several rivers in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

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The US-Iran ceasefire caused crude oil to drop $20/barrel, the US dollar weakened, and equities surged. Soybeans tried to firm, while grains faced modest pressure due to improved rain chances and rising Russian wheat estimates. Fertilizer costs surged, with concerns over long-term supply disruptions. Feeder cattle saw the heaviest losses, live cattle prices slipped, and hog futures were pressured by lower global pork demand. Intense winds were forecast for parts of the Midwest, potentially causing power outages and tree damage.

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Crude oil prices are affecting commodities, with little fresh news ahead of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Steady corn and soybean balance sheets and slight wheat adjustments are expected. Corn and soybean inspections rose, while wheat inspections declined. Ethanol margins are near 40 cents per gallon, and soybean crush margins hit a record 299 cents per bushel. Livestock markets firmed, with hogs showing strength despite China's herd reduction. Winter weather advisories were issued for parts of the Midwest, with freeze warnings across a broad area.

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While recent moisture was welcome for sme areas, drought conditions persist, particularly for the winter wheat crop. Traders are monitoring potential threats to early corn and soybean prospects. Strong demand and firm cash markets are supporting soybeans, while live cattle futures saw gains, and the CME feeder cattle index and wholesale box beef prices varied. The podcast also mentioned the movement of grain vessels from Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey to China and the U.S., indicating potential shifts in domestic demand.

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The market complex is closed today due to it being Good Friday. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on commodity markets, with President Trump's statements on the conflict's end being met with skepticism due to ongoing Iranian strikes. The market complex was closed for the holiday, and energy prices influenced corn and soybean prices. Southern Illinois and Indiana met their initial crop insurance planting dates, but rising energy costs and job losses tempered gains. The February crush report showed soybean processing at 214 million bushels, down from January, and corn ethanol usage at 425 million bushels, also down from January.

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Traders remain due to the US-Iran conflict. February crush and grind numbers met expectations, and weekly export sales are anticipated to be similar to the previous week. Weather conditions in the US plains and Argentina are influencing price discovery. In livestock, rising retail beef and gasoline prices are altering consumer buying patterns, and there's speculation about the US reopening its border to Mexican live cattle imports. China's pork reserves are expected to stabilize domestic prices, pressuring US hog futures. Markets are closed tomorrow due to Good Friday.

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In the USDA's prospective planting report released yesterday, corn acres were slightly above expectations, while soybean and wheat acres were lower, with wheat plantings at a 102-year low. US corn planting is expected to decline 3% year-over-year, with significant reductions in key states. Soybean planting is projected to increase by 4%. Wheat planting is expected to drop 3% to the lowest since 1919. Live cattle futures rallied, while lean hog futures declined. China's hog sector struggles with oversupply. Winter storm warnings were issued for central Wisconsin and the North Dakota-Minnesota border.

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USDA corn inspections rose to 1.79 million metric tons, up from 1.7 million tons the previous week. Soybean assessments dropped to 586,427 metric tons from 1.11 million tons. Wheat inspections were 364,219 metric tons, down from 459,467 tons. Since September 1, corn exports are at 46.4 million metric tons, soybeans at 29.8 million metric tons, and wheat at 20.3 million metric tons. Drought in the Southern Plains and rising energy costs are affecting markets. Livestock prices are fluctuating, and severe weather conditions are forecasted in Minnesota and Arkansas.

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The grain markets are positioning ahead of quarterly reports, expecting larger corn stocks and soybean acreage shifts, livestock markets with box beef stabilizing and tight pork supplies amid historically low cattle/hog inventories, plus dry weather warnings for Nebraska and the southern plains with fire risks.

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Grain markets are experiencing fresh buying and short covering ahead of USDA reports, with traders cautious until April 1. The US-Iran conflict's uncertainty is driving commodity volatility, with potential for 10,000 additional troops. US hog and pig inventories rose slightly year-over-year, with 74.3 million head and 2.86 million sows expected to farrow from March to May. Beef supply remains tight, with select cuts trading $5 above choice. Dry, windy weather in the southern plains is expected to cause power outages and damage.

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Next week's grain market reports may show 4-4.5 million acres moving from corn to soybeans. Ethanol production rose to 1.1016 million barrels per day, with inventories at 27.17 million barrels. Beef weights increased to 966 pounds, and live cattle futures cooled after a rally. Strong winds and low humidity in central Nebraska and the Texas Panhandle pose fire risks. The podcast is sponsored by Bear Crop Science, promoting Dolero Complete fungicide.

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Analysts expect fewer corn acres and more soybeans due to rising input costs and strong early-season grain demand. Countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers cost U.S. producers $6.9 billion from 2021 to 2025, with North Dakota, Kansas, and Montana facing significant fertilizer costs. Livestock markets showed mixed trends, with hog prices dropping 10% in a week. Western Nebraska and Eastern Wyoming face intense winds and dry conditions, with over 800,000 acres burned in recent wildfires.

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Grain markets are consolidating ahead of key USDA reports on planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks. Fertilizer prices are rising, potentially shifting acres from corn to soybeans. Soybean inspections rose to 1.1 million metric tons, while corn inspections increased to 1.7 million metric tons. Wheat inspections were at 458,411 metric tons. Livestock futures rose due to softer feed grain prices and a bullish cattle on feed report. Dry conditions in western Nebraska and Eastern Wyoming pose fire risks.

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The US-Iran conflict, now in its third week, is causing economic strain and potential oil price spikes. Cattle placements declined 4% year-over-year to 11.55 million head, with marketings at 1.52 million head, the second-lowest since 1996. Hog futures slipped, and record heat in the southern plains increased wildfire risks.

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Grain prices are seeing light profit-taking as export demand eased, with corn sales down 22% week-over-week to 1.17 million metric tons. Wheat sales fell 58% to 189,900 metric tons, and soybean sales dropped 35% to 298,200 metric tons. Mexico was a top buyer in all three categories. Critical fire weather conditions were reported in the Northern and Central High Plains. The US-Iran conflict and a stagnating US economy impacted livestock markets, with cash cattle and hog trade at moderately lower prices.

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Soybean crush margins are at a two-and-a-half-year high, and ethanol margins have surpassed last summer's levels. Ethanol production declined by 33,000 barrels per day to 1.093 million barrels, with significant drops in the Midwest. Livestock markets faced pressure, with money managers pulling capital from the complex. Fire risk is high in the central and northern High Plains, and a wintry mix is expected in the upper Midwest.

The Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady at 3.5-3.75% due to geopolitical uncertainty.

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Soybean harvest and safrinha planting continue in Brazil, but crop expectations remain uncertain. Southern Argentina faces dry conditions, and China has production issues with new crop wheat. Brazil's new export rules for soybeans are unclear, and the U.S. is working to secure fertilizer supplies amid the Iran conflict. North Dakota allocated $100 million for farm financial stability. Livestock markets saw gains, with live cattle at $1.45 to $1.97 and feeder cattle futures up 432 to 522. Weather forecasts included light snow in the Midwest and a heat wave in the western U.S.

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Soybean prices will see an expanded trading limits set at $1.05 per bushel due to profit-taking and geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China. Corn and wheat also declined. USDA export inspections showed corn at 1.65 million metric tons and soybeans at 966,000 metric tons, up from previous weeks. Livestock markets saw mixed results, with cattle and box beef prices stronger, but hogs limited by a weaker cutout. Weather forecasts predicted dry conditions for the Corn Belt, with potential snow in the northern plains and a heat wave in the West.

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Profit-taking set the tone for grain trade, with funds adding more length than expected, leading to selling. Investors boosted net long positions in corn and soybeans to their highest levels in over a year. Wheat saw a reduction in net short positions. Live cattle futures declined, and wholesale beef prices firmed. Blizzard warnings were in effect across parts of the Midwest, with significant snowfall and high winds forecast. Listeners were encouraged to read more at agriculture.com and subscribe to the podcast.

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Demand for corn, wheat, and soybeans is declining due to high futures and shipping costs, with diesel prices rising 92 cents per gallon since the US-Iran conflict. Corn sales dropped 26% week-over-week to 1.5 million metric tons, with Japan as the largest buyer. Wheat sales rose 49% to 455,400 metric tons, led by Mexico. Soybean sales increased 19% to 456,700 metric tons, with Indonesia as the top buyer. Livestock markets saw mixed results, with feeder cattle prices down due to high grain costs. Blizzard warnings were issued for parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois, with potential snowfall up to eight inches and strong winds causing power outages.

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Grain futures are influenced by energy markets, with rising energy costs pushing fertilizer values higher. Ethanol production rose to 1.120.6 million barrels a day, the highest since January 9, with significant increases in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. Ethanol inventories dropped to 25.58 million barrels. Live cattle futures faced losses, and lean hog futures weakened. Extremely dry weather in the Midwest and South Dakota poses risks of property damage and travel disruptions.

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Crude oil futures rebounded due to escalating Middle East tensions, with Iran potentially deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. US March reports showed minor adjustments in corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets, while South America's crop estimates were revised. Tractors and combine sales in the US declined significantly, with tractors down 12-26% year-over-year. Livestock futures saw mixed results, with live cattle and lean hog prices varying. Dry, windy weather is expected across the northern Midwest and southern plains, posing fire risks.

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The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is expected to have minimal market impact unless it delivers a surprise. Corn prices may fall below expectations due to rising urea prices. Global food costs are rising, with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reporting a 5-month high in February. A strike at the JBS beef plant in Greeley could begin on March 16. Thunderstorms with potential for large hail and tornadoes are forecast for northern Illinois and parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

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Crude oil prices surged over $100 per barrel, with concerns of reaching $200 due to geopolitical tensions. The US labor report showed unexpected job losses, and AI-driven layoffs are anticipated. Heavy rains in Brazil delayed soybean harvesting and corn planting, while Argentina's crops face stress. Domestic processing margins are strong, supporting the cash market. The CFTC reported a net short position of 52,243 futures contracts in corn and a net long position of 187,491 in soybeans. Livestock markets were mixed, with hog prices firming due to lighter slaughter runs and stronger demand. Red flag warnings were issued for the southern plains due to high winds and low humidity, posing fire risks.

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Grain futures are strengthening due to rising energy prices linked to USA-Iran tensions and reduced South American crop estimates, though Brazilian soybeans are entering export markets and displacing some US business.

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Grain futures are stable due to strong energy prices and lower South American crop estimates. USDA projects a decline in corn acres, potentially leading to higher prices. Ethanol production fell to 1.095 million barrels per day, with inventories reaching 26.313 million barrels. Livestock values are correcting, supported by a tight US cattle inventory. China's pork production reached 15.7 million metric tons in Q4 2025, causing prices to drop. Severe thunderstorms are forecasted for Central Iowa, with potential for large hail and tornadoes.

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South American crop estimates are being lowered, particularly Brazil's soybean crop. Despite expected record production, exports may decline due to rising domestic use. Corn used for ethanol declined slightly, while soybean crush increased. Rising feed grain costs and technical profit-taking affected cattle feeders, but tight cattle inventory and New World screw worm cases in Mexico supported prices. Severe weather is in the forecast for today and tonight in the Midwest.

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Geopolitical tensions are affecting markets, with crude oil leading a rally due to potential supply disruptions from the Middle East. OPEC is prepared to increase production if needed. Speculators cut net short positions in corn and raised bullish positions in soybeans, with net long positions in soybeans reaching the highest since December 9. In wheat, bearish positions decreased. Livestock markets saw losses in live and feeder cattle futures, and a drought is impacting 49% of U.S. pasture land, up from 36% last year. Winter weather advisories were issued for several regions.

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South American crop issues—especially Argentina's declining soybean ratings (26% good-to-excellent) and Brazil's delayed safrinha planting—provide modest support. EPA biofuel waivers help soy oil, while US corn and soybean export sales dropped sharply. Dry weather is forecasted in many states, and windy conditions for much of the Midwest today.

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South American crop concerns (Brazilian soybean quality issues from rain), and strong domestic demand with soybean crush margins near summer highs and improving ethanol margins supporting corn basis. There is high wildfire danger for those in Central and Western Nebraska with low humidity and high winds.

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Agricultural markets are experiencing month-end positioning with mixed South American crop outlooks and quality concerns in Brazil. The ethanol industry's significant economic impact is highlighted, contributing $50 billion to US GDP and supporting over 300,000 jobs while purchasing $24 billion in corn during difficult times for farmers. Livestock markets show mixed results with cattle under pressure from rising feed costs. Weather forecasts predict light snow in the Midwest today, followed by dry, windy conditions that will elevate wildfire risk.

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Grain trade is positioning for March contracts, with soybean production in Brazil and Argentina affected by weather. US egg production rose 2% year-on-year to 9.2 billion eggs in January, with 7.88 billion table eggs and 1.31 billion hatching eggs. Cattle futures showed initial strength but later losses, influenced by Brazil-South Korea beef trade talks and negative margins in the livestock sector. Hog futures held gains amid weather concerns. Severe weather warnings were issued for parts of Texas and Oklahoma, posing fire risks.

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The impact of the Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariff program has led to uncertainty in trade conditions, prompting investors to seek safe havens like gold and silver. USDA data showed a 2% year-over-year decline in the number of cattle and calves on feed as of February 1, with placements down 5%. Live cattle futures slipped, and export sales were at a five-week low. Extremely dry weather is expected in the Texas Panhandle, posing a risk to hard red winter wheat. The National Weather Service also warned of critical fire weather conditions along the I-25 corridor.

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The grain markets are consolidating amid geopolitical uncertainty, with USDA reporting 94 million acres of corn plantings, 5 million fewer than last year and 600 million bushels short of demand, raising rationing concerns. Soybean plantings are expected to increase by 4 million acres. Red meat production declined, with beef output down 6% and pork down 2%. Winter storm warnings persist in Iowa, with potential snowfall up to 10 inches. The CME feeder cattle index rose, while box beef prices varied. The podcast is sponsored by Bear Crop Science, offering 0% APR financing on crop protection products.

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Soybean demand remains strong, with export sales and domestic crush elevated, despite lighter Chinese buying. Corn acres are projected to drop by 4 million, potentially pulling ending stocks below 2 billion bushels. Wheat prices are firming due to global weather concerns. US hatcheries increased egg and chick placements by 2% year-over-year. Georgia led in broiler-type eggs and chicks placed. Cattle futures closed mixed, with anticipation for higher cash cattle prices. Winter snow warnings were issued for parts of several states, including Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa, with significant snowfall expected. Dry conditions with high winds and low humidity were forecast for the US southern plains, posing fire risks.

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Planting delays in Brazil are causing concerns, pushing more acres outside the optimum yield window and extending opportunities for U.S. corn exports. The USDA Ag Outlook Forum highlighted expectations for fewer corn and more soybean acres in the U.S. this spring. Inspections of corn and wheat for overseas delivery fell, with corn at 1.49 million metric tons and wheat at 375,402 tons. Cash cattle prices rose, and live cattle prices are below cash, with mixed box beef prices. Blizzards and extremely dry weather were noted in various regions, affecting travel and elevating fire risks.

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Commodity markets are quiet due to President's Day and China's Lunar New Year, with Argentina's soybean crop rated 32% good to excellent and corn at 43%. Brazil's crops are generally better. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig urged year-round E15 availability, noting a 44% increase in sales in 2024. Livestock cash cattle prices rose $4, and beef prices were mixed. High winds and low humidity in the Midwest pose risks to property and travel.

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The commodity markets are closed today in honor of Presiden't day. Argentina's crop rating declines, the U.S. inflation data easing to 2.4% in January, and beef prices rising 17%. China's food prices are down, with meat costs decreasing by over 6%. Investors increased their net long positions in soybeans and reduced bearish bets on corn. Livestock markets saw mixed results, with cash cattle trades expected to be higher. Weather notes highlighted dry conditions in the southern plains and potential fire risks in eastern Colorado. The podcast also promoted Bear Crop Science's 0% APR financing offer.

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Traders are taking profits after a strong week, with soybean ratings in southern Argentina declining to 32% good to excellent and 32% poor to very poor. US corn exports have increased by 31% year-over-year, with 60.8 million metric tons committed since September 1. The USDA raised its corn export outlook to 3.3 billion bushels for the 2025-2026 marketing year. Live cattle prices are mixed, and beef demand remains strong despite tight supplies. Weather forecasts predict above-normal temperatures and rainfall in parts of Missouri, with potential for wildfires in Oklahoma and Texas.

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New crop soybeans are gaining strength, supported by strong demand and quality issues in Brazilian soybeans. Ethanol production rose to 1.11 million barrels per day, with inventories at 25.214 million barrels. The April live cattle contract showed potential for higher cash trade, while dry conditions in cattle country are causing concern. The House passed a bill to repeal fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada, expected to face a veto.

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The USDA's February WASDE report showed modest adjustments to domestic balance sheets, with traders skeptical about increased Chinese soybean purchases. Corn stockpiles are projected at 2.1207 billion bushels, up from 2.2127 billion, with exports at 3.3 billion bushels. Wheat inventories are expected to end at 931 million bushels. Beef prices were down, with Choice down 21 cents and Select down 45 cents. Light rain and snow are forecast for parts of Central Iowa, with potential for isolated slick spots.

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The WASDE report is set to be released today with no major changes expected, with a focus on South American crops and China's production and demand. USDA data showed corn inspections rose to 1.31 million metric tons, wheat to 580,130 metric tons, and soybean inspections declined to 1.14 million metric tons. The cattle market is unaffected by Argentina's beef imports due to tight supplies. High beef prices persist. Severe winds are forecast for Central Oklahoma, and flood advisories are issued for eastern Nebraska due to ice jams.

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Futures markets are seeing little movement, with minor adjustments expected in the upcoming WASDE report. South American production, particularly Brazilian soybean sales, is slow, affecting export potential. Speculators increased bullish bets on soybeans and reduced net short positions in corn and wheat. The JBS plant strike and tariff reduction on Argentine beef may impact the market psychologically. Dry conditions in the U.S. southern plains and Nebraska pose fire risks. The podcast also highlighted cattle futures volatility and weather warnings.

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Commodity markets are stable ahead of the WASDE report, with soybean sales down 47% week-over-week to 436,900 metric tons, led by China. Corn sales dropped 37%, and wheat sales fell 33%. Live cattle futures declined due to potential strikes at a JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado. Weather updates included flood watches in eastern Nebraska and winter weather advisories in eastern Indiana and Ohio. The podcast is sponsored by Bear Crop Science, offering 0% APR financing on crop protection products.

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Commodity markets reacting to President Trump's claim of China buying 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, potentially reducing ending stocks. Traders are skeptical without confirmation. Soybean demand is supported by Brazil's slow export program and farm economy issues. Ethanol production dropped to 956,000 barrels per day, the lowest since April 2024, with inventories at 25.130 million barrels. March feeder cattle futures are nearing a chart gap, but the cash cattle trade is uncertain. Weather notes include potential ice jams on the Missouri River and freezing drizzle in eastern Iowa and Northern

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A US-India trade deal was announced, with tariffs on Indian goods reduced to 18% and India agreeing to stop buying Russian oil, expected to boost US agricultural exports. Beef prices remain strong, with choice at $250 and select at $232. Weather forecasts include freezing drizzle in Minnesota and Wisconsin, potentially causing travel hazards. The podcast is sponsored by Bear Crop Science, offering 0% APR financing on crop protection products.

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Gold is up nearly $300 and silver over $9, driven by the U.S. government shutdown. Argentina's corn production estimates were revised down, and China's corn imports are rising. U.S. corn inspections fell to 1.14 million metric tons, down from 1.55 million tons a week earlier. Cattle futures rose due to strong cash cattle trade, with the lowest cattle inventory since 2018. Winter weather advisories were in effect in parts of the U.S., with forecasts of up to three inches of snow in some areas.

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Profit-taking from late last week and a drop in crude oil due to Middle East tensions and moderate US weather pressured markets. The USDA reported a decline in cattle and calves, with total cattle at 86.2 million head, down 0.5% year-over-year. Beef cows were down 1%, milk cows up 2%, and the calf crop down 2%. Cash cattle trade developed late, with Southern live cattle prices up $5 and Northern dress cattle up $9. Box beef prices were mixed. Light snow is possible in Northern Iowa and surrounding areas.

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A late-night Senate deal led to a US dollar rebound and metal price drops. Soybean exports from Brazil are robust, but Argentina's crop ratings have declined. Farmers aggressively sold soybeans, with 74% stored commercially as of November 30. Corn and wheat storage also increased, indicating potential selling pressure. Cash cattle trade remained uncertain, with packers reducing slaughter rates. Winter weather advisories were issued for parts of the Midwest, and extremely cold conditions were forecast

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Gold surged nearly $200 an ounce, and silver over $7, driven by a weaker US dollar and crypto instability. Corn and soybean prices rose due to reduced Argentine crop estimates and Brazilian export delays. The American Soybean Association reported a 45% drop in soybean oil used for biofuels, citing unclear policies. The EPA proposed a 67% increase in biofuel blending levels for 2026-2027, potentially adding 200 million bushels of soybeans. Cattle futures saw slight losses, and extreme cold weather conditions were noted in several regions.

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There are weather concerns in South America, particularly Argentina, where crop ratings are declining due to spreading dryness. In the U.S., bitter cold persists, and global tensions are high, with President Trump threatening to raise tariffs on South Korea. Export inspections were mixed, with corn assessments rising, but wheat and soybean inspections declining. Cattle futures are up, with feedlots holding out for higher cash prices. Extreme cold warnings are in effect across the U.S., with wind chills reaching 20 degrees below zero in some areas.

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A weakening U.S. dollar and rising metals are impacting agricultural markets, with gold up $110 an ounce and silver nearly $8. Dry conditions in Argentina lowered soybean ratings, while winter storms in the U.S. influenced cash markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported a net short position of 95,867 corn futures contracts and a net long position of 14,624 soybean futures contracts. Cash cattle traded steady to higher, with box beef prices up. Cold weather warnings were issued across the U.S., with wind chills reaching minus 22 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas.

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Markets are consolidating, with attention on South American weather, particularly Argentina's soybean ratings and Brazil's delayed rains. Ethanol production dropped to 1.190 million barrels a day, with inventories rising to 25.713 million barrels. Cattle futures were stagnant, awaiting the cattle on feed report. The "Make America More Ground Beef" initiative aims to lower retail ground beef prices by 18-25% by diverting 800,000-1 million dairy cattle. Winter storm warnings and extreme cold alerts were issued across the U.S.

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Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and EU eased, stabilizing markets. In Brazil, a slow soybean harvest and dry conditions are affecting corn planting. In the U.S., dry weather persists, limiting grain movement and tightening commercial inventories. Iowa's corn and ethanol industry faces decline without E15 and ultra-low carbon ethanol, with corn prices projected to drop to $1.52/bushel by 2025. Winter storms are expected across the U.S., with extreme cold warnings and significant snowfall forecasted.

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Commodity markets are showing signs of stabilization after trade tensions, with soybeans supported by meal and oil strength, and corn by Brazilian harvest delays. US egg production in December rose slightly, with 9.110 billion eggs produced, including 7.818 million table eggs and 60 million broiler-type hatching eggs. Live and feeder cattle markets saw volatility due to New World screw worm concerns. Winter storms are forecasted across the central US, with extreme cold warnings in North Dakota to Michigan.

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Gold surged over $130, and silver over $6 due to geopolitical tensions. The US dollar weakened, and equity markets signaled a sell-off. China and Canada finalized a trade agreement, potentially impacting North American oil. Argentina's crop ratings and production estimates are declining, while Brazil's outlook is mixed. China has met its promise to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans.

The US chicken industry faces growth challenges, with per capita consumption expected to rise to 107 pounds by 2030. Cattle markets were affected by false rumors of a new case of New World screw worm. Winter weather advisories were issued for parts of the Midwest, with potential snowfall and extreme cold.

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Commodity markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Net short positions in corn futures increased to 90,658 contracts, the largest since October 21, while bullish bets on soybeans decreased to 19,985 contracts, the smallest since October 14. Hedge funds reduced their net short positions in soft red winter wheat to 108,247 contracts. Live cattle futures ended sharply lower, with cash cattle trading around $233. Cold weather advisories were issued for several states, including Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, with wind chills dropping to minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit.

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USDA data showed soybean sales surged 54% week-over-week to 2.06 million metric tons, led by China, Egypt, and Mexico. Corn sales increased 10% to 1.14 million metric tons, with major buyers including Mexico and Japan. Wheat sales rose 32% to 156,300 metric tons. Cattle traders are optimistic about higher prices, while winter weather advisories were issued for several states. The podcast also mentioned the potential impact of New World screw worm on the market.

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Attention is being put on Brazil's soybean crop in favorable conditions, but final yield estimates are uncertain. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, influenced crude oil prices, which fell below $60 per barrel. Ethanol production surged to a record high of 1.119 million barrels per day, with the Midwest leading production. Livestock markets saw higher cash trade potential, but packers' aggressiveness remains uncertain. Severe weather warnings were issued for dry conditions in parts of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska, posing fire risks and potential power outages.

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Global corn ending stocks have been raised, but prices increased by 10 cents a bushel. Corn, soybean, and wheat export inspections rose week-over-week. In livestock, packers purchased some cattle for deferred delivery, while feed lots held out for higher cash cattle prices. The WASDA report was favorable for the cattle market. Weather forecasts included snow and ice in northern Minnesota and strong winds in central Iowa. Markets saw corn, soybeans, and soybean meal trading lower, while soybean oil and spring wheat rose.

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USDA data on corn markets, including increased harvested acres, national yield, and production, as well as raised global corn ending stocks and US cash price estimates. Export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat saw significant increases. In livestock, packers purchased some cattle for deferred delivery, while feedlots held out for higher cash cattle prices. The WASDE report was favorable for the cattle market. Weather forecasts included snow and ice in northern Minnesota and strong winds in central Iowa, potentially affecting agricultural activities.

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Commodity markets rose due to investor shifts into safe havens amid geopolitical tensions and potential legal actions against Federal Chair Jerome Powell. The USDA's WASDA report is expected to show larger quarterly stocks but steady ending stocks. Soybeans saw a rise due to China's purchases, while corn and soybean positions adjusted. Wheat markets showed mixed sentiment. Cattle prices were anticipated to rise, but packer bids were disappointing. Dry conditions in Nebraska and Missouri pose fire risks. The podcast also highlighted the importance of the WASDA report and the Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC.

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South America faces dry conditions, slowing planting, while US wheat production is split between the dry Southern Plains and the moist Northern Plains. Analysts anticipate lower corn and soybean production, with stocks-to-use ratios influencing market sentiment. The Supreme Court may rule on US tariffs, with a 28% chance of tariffs remaining. Corn sales plummeted 76% from the prior four weeks, with significant purchases from South Korea, Japan, and Mexico. Soybean sales also declined, with China being a major buyer. Wheat sales rose 24% weekly but were down 55% from the average. The National Weather Service forecasts heavy snow in the Southern Plains, potentially impacting roadways.

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With traders adjusting ahead of the USDA report expected to show slightly lower corn and soybean production. Export demand, particularly from China, remains crucial. Ethanol production dropped to 1.098 million barrels per day, with stocks reaching a five-month high. Cattle futures corrected after overbought conditions, and cash cattle trade is anticipated. The new dietary guidelines prioritize meat, dairy, fruit, and vegetables. Weather forecasts predict light snow in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with potential for more snow on Saturday.

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There is the potential for China to buy more U.S. soybeans than its 12 million metric ton target, with U.S. beans priced competitively against Brazil. Corn demand remains strong, with China auctioning off government reserves. Ethanol composition in U.S. gasoline reached a record 11.11% in October, driven by E15 and flex fuels. Live cattle futures rose, supported by feeder cattle strength and the discovery of the New World screw worm in Mexico. Rain is forec

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Commodities are not showing significant buying or selling pressure, with markets positioning ahead of the USDA's upcoming reports. South American weather is mixed, with Brazilian soybean values firming despite harvest. China is rumored to have booked US soybean cargoes, with soybean inspections up to 980,518 metric tons. Cattle futures are rebounding, with renewed consumer interest in beef. Winter weather advisories are issued for parts of Wisconsin and Michigan, with freezing rain expected.

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Commodity markets are recovering from oversold conditions, with increased trading volumes and higher gold and silver prices due to US military action in Venezuela. US corn and wheat exports are up, while soybean exports are down due to the U.S.-China trade war. Cash cattle prices rose, and live cattle broke out of a trading range. Dry conditions in the southern plains and winter weather advisories in Minnesota and Wisconsin

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Grain markets are quiet due to holiday trading, with attention on South American weather and US export activity. Deliveries against January contracts include 913 lots of soybeans and 48 lots of soy oil. China's 2026 import quota for countries under new safeguard measures is 2.7 million metric tons, down from 2024's 2.87 million tons. Cash cattle are expected to trade at steady prices, while box beef prices remain high. Weather forecasts predict above-average conditions in the plains and colder weather in the Midwest.

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Grain futures declined yesterday as traders took profits ahead of the holiday weekend, while metals saw their strongest year since 1979. Dry conditions in Argentina, with no rain for two weeks, are a growing concern. Tensions escalated between China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine continued to strike each other's export terminals. Live cattle futures strengthened, with spec traders holding a net long position of 94,868 contracts. USDA wholesale box beef prices dropped. The U.S. is expected to start January colder than normal, especially in the northern regions, influenced by La Niña.

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Today is the final trading day of the year, with market action focused on year-end positioning. The January 12 WASDA report, which will include final old crop production numbers and quarterly grain stocks, is highly anticipated. Brazil's soybean harvest is off to a strong start, while Argentina faces drought conditions. The Iowa Department of Agriculture reported a new case of highly pathogenic avian influenza, impacting 15 birds, bringing the total affected to nearly 185 million since 2022. Live cattle prices are supported by tight numbers, but box beef prices are low. Arctic air is expected to surge, bringing snow showers across the Midwest and Northeast.

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The commodity complex is seeing consolidation in grain markets due to profit-taking in precious metals. The soy complex is recovering, and Argentina's crop conditions are deteriorating. USDA export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat were lower compared to the previous week and last year. Live cattle futures were mixed, with cash cattle trade expected to remain steady. Feeder cattle futures showed mixed results. The National Weather Service forecasts tranquil weather with milder temperatures across much of the country, except for the eastern two-thirds.

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Grain markets faced pressure with corn, soybeans, and wheat trading lower, influenced by lower metals and energy markets. Ethanol production surged to a two-year high, averaging 1.107 million barrels per day, with the Midwest leading the gains. Cattle futures may trade sideways due to limited cash activity. Snow and rain are expected in parts of Illinois and Wisconsin, with potential for slick areas and up to three inches of snow in northern Wisconsin. Listeners are encouraged to read more at agriculture.com and subscribe to the podcast.

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Grain markets saw solid gains, led by soybeans, corn, and wheat, with corn posting five consecutive session gains. Red meat production dropped 7% year-over-year in November, with beef down 9%, pork down 4%, and calf slaughter down 42%. Cash markets showed mixed results, with corn and spring wheat basis strengthening. Winter weather advisories were issued for parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana, potentially impacting travel and power outages.

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Grain futures rose, supported by corn and soybeans, while wheat markets and the US Dollar Index increased slightly. Cattle markets were mixed, with tightening beef supplies driving support. Beef stocks were down 3.42% year-on-year to 425.5 million pounds. Managed money increased net long positions in live cattle. Wholesale beef prices fell. Warm air prevails, but a pattern change with colder temperatures is expected. Listeners are encouraged to read more at agriculture.com and subscribe to the podcast.

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Commodity markets are experiencing the influence of outside markets, a weaker US dollar, and weather conditions in South America. Red meat and cold storage rose 1% monthly but declined year-over-year, with frozen meat supplies down. Cattle futures fell due to a lack of cash trade, while hog futures saw modest support ahead of the hogs and pigs report. The US hog inventory rose 1% year-over-year, with producers planning to increase sell firings. Weather forecasts predicted warm temperatures and dense fog across the central and southern US, with freezing drizzle in northern Wisconsin.

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Commodity markets received a boost due to safe-haven buying, with gold surpassing $4,500 an ounce and soybean exports picking up. The USDA reported increased corn, soybean, and wheat inspections, with corn at 1.74 million metric tons and soybeans at 870,199 tons. The cattle market showed mixed reactions to the bullish cattle on feed report, with some chart gaps closing. Weather notes indicated potential winter storm impacts in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and record-breaking warmth in central Nebraska.

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There is a decrease in bullish positions and an increase in short positions. The CFTC's weekly report showed net long positions in corn and soybeans, and net short positions in wheat. Livestock markets saw mixed results, with cash cattle trading at varied prices. The cattle on feed report showed lower placements, impacted by the Mexican border closure. Winter weather advisories were issued for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, with potential for snow and ice, while dry conditions in the southern plains raised fire concerns.

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The US's flash sales and China's soybean purchase target, and increased corn and wheat imports despite a strong domestic crop. USDA data showed corn exports up 70% YoY, wheat exports up 23%, and soybean exports down 46%. China's November corn imports rose 87.5% YoY, and wheat imports surged 279%. Cattle futures dropped, with estimates for cattle on feed at 98.3%. Extremely dry conditions in western Nebraska and dangerously cold weather in North Dakota were also noted.

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The market is experiencing choppy trading due to a lack of fresh news and seasonal factors. Brazil and Argentina face drought stress, affecting crop estimates. U.S. ethanol production hit a record 1.130 million barrels per day, with significant gains in the Midwest. Cattle futures struggled to break price resistance, leading to selling. Weather updates included blizzards in the northern U.S., intense winds in South Dakota and Nebraska, and dry conditions in Kansas, posing risks of tree damage and fires.

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There are several external market pressures on commodity markets, including a 4.6% US unemployment rate and crude oil dropping to $55 per barrel. South American weather is favorable for established crops, but there are questions about planting in Safrina. Brazil saw a 5% annual decline in tractor sales, with high horsepower tractors down 28%. Live cattle futures showed minor gains, but packers' purchases for deferred delivery may limit holiday purchases. High winds and winter weather are forecast across the Northern US, affecting visibility and road conditions.

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Technical trading and mixed demand are showing signals on the markets, with concerns over China's soybean purchases and biofuel blending policies. Brazil's expected corn export delay until July benefits U.S. exports. SinoGrain auctioned 513,000 metric tons of soybeans. USDA reported 1.58 million metric tons of corn inspections, down from 1.74 million tons a week prior, and 795,661 metric tons of soybeans inspections, down from 1.03 million tons. Live cattle contracts faced market challenges, and intense winds were forecasted for the Northern Plains.

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The impact of data-driven insights on farming success, noting the importance of soil types and seed selection. Soybean markets are struggling due to rising costs and uncertainty over renewable fuel usage, with exports lagging behind last year's totals. Corn exports are up 74% year-over-year, driven by global demand and lower quality supplies. Wheat exports are also up, by 23%. Cattle futures are recovering from price drops, with packers being aggressive in purchases. Winter storm warnings are in effect across several regions, with significant snowfall and cold wind chills forecasted.

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There are no major changes in the upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. The USDA's 2026 baseline acreage estimates predict a decline in corn, soybean, and wheat plantings. Soybean inspections rose to 1.02 million metric tons, while corn assessments fell to 1.45 million tons. Cattle futures remained steady, influenced by the box beef market. Winter storm warnings were issued for much of the Northern US, with significant snowfall expected.

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No major changes are expected in today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. The USDA's 2026 baseline acreage estimates predict a decline in corn, soybean, and wheat plantings. Soybean inspections rose to 1.02 million metric tons, while corn assessments fell to 1.45 million tons. Cattle futures remained steady, influenced by the box beef market. Winter storm warnings were issued for much of the Northern US, with significant snowfall expected.

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Soybeans faced pressure due to weekend rains in South America and weak energy complexes, with doubts about China's import intentions. US corn and wheat markets were supported by low-quality grain in China and Black Sea export disruptions. Speculators raised net long positions in soybeans and reduced bearish stances on corn. The global food cost index declined to 125.1 points in November. Livestock markets saw higher cash cattle prices, but were affected by President Trump's price-fixing investigation. Severe weather is forecasted for the Northern US.

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China's soybean purchases are lagging, with a reported 2.25 million metric tons, well below the 12 million target. Argentina's corn planting is 9% behind last year, raising concerns about late-season stress. USDA reported robust corn and wheat exports but a 39% drop in soybean exports. Cattle futures saw a positive week, with packers buying at higher prices. The FDA conditionally approved a topical solution for cattle. Winter weather advisories were issued for parts of the Midwest, with potential snowfall and slippery roads.

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Commodity markets saw mixed trade, with South American weather impacting Brazilian crop estimates. China's soybean purchases have slowed, raising doubts about meeting purchase goals. Ethanol production reached a record high of 1.1206 million barrels per day, with the Midwest leading at 1.068 million barrels. Brazil's pork and chicken production and exports for 2025 and 2026 were forecasted. Winter weather advisories were issued for the southern plains.

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The ag markets are feeling the impact of weather in South America and Black Sea conflicts on crop forecasts, with Brazil's soybean projection at 175 million metric tons. The US may see increased export demand due to these issues. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut odds are 88% due to a softening labor market. China rejected Brazilian soybeans due to pesticide contamination, potentially shifting imports to the US. The CFTC report showed a net short position in corn and a bullish position in soybeans. Spain's African swine fever cases could boost US pork exports, while cattle futures rallied, and box beef prices declined.

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China's return to the U.S. export market is expected to influence demand. The U.S. saw sporadic flash sales, with shippers avoiding the Black Sea, potentially increasing U.S. grain export demand. Red meat export sales were mixed, with beef sales for 2025 at a five-week low. Corn and soybean inspections varied, with corn down and soybeans up from the previous week. The cattle market showed cautious trading, while winter weather advisories were in effect from Indiana to the Atlantic.

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China has rejected Brazilian soybeans due to pesticide contamination, leading to suspended exports from five Brazilian firms, which could benefit the U.S. despite price differences. U.S. soybean sales from September 1 to mid-October were down 32% year-over-year, while corn and wheat exports saw significant increases. The U.S.D.A. reported that corn exports were up 58% and wheat exports up 23%, but soybean exports were down 38%. Additionally, winter weather advisories were issued from Kansas to the eastern seaboard, with expected snowfall affecting road conditions.

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China's significant purchases of U.S. soybeans and sorghum were highlighted, with China buying over 4 million metric tons of beans and 600 metric tons of sorghum. Corn sales averaged 68 million bushels per week, above the 18-year high. Broiler placements rose 3% year-over-year to 191 million chicks. Cattle futures saw support due to potential Mexican border reopening stages. Severe weather warnings were issued for Iowa and Illinois, with up to 14 inches of snow expected. The podcast also mentioned a trading glitch on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and early market closure due to the holiday.

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Corn values in China have surged due to low stocks, with port stocks at 1.2 million metric tons, down from 3.4 million last year. Soybeans had a choppy trade, while December wheat showed an uptrend. Cattle prices rose, supporting the livestock complex. Weather notes indicated a deepening trough over the Midwest, bringing colder air and potential winter storms. Markets are closed today and will reopen for a shortened session tomorrow.

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Agricultural markets are in holiday mode, with December grain registrations at 80 corn contracts, 34 lots of soft red wheat, and 176 lots of hard red wheat. US soybean export pace is low, with 29 million bushels loaded this week, the lowest in 19 years but still within weekly needs. Speculators increased their net short positions in corn and wheat. Cattle futures showed substantial weakness, with northern dress cattle trading $15 lower. A major winter storm is forecast for the Midwest, expected to bring significant snow and high winds.

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Commodity markets saw light short covering, with export interest rising despite South American weather issues. The cash market remained firm due to the Thanksgiving holiday and an approaching winter storm. Livestock markets were impacted by the Tyson plant closure announcement, leading to lower cattle futures. Soybean inspections dropped to 799,042 metric tons, down from 1.21 million tons the previous week. Corn inspections fell to 1.63 million tons, while wheat inspections rose to 474,530 metric tons. Winter storm warnings were issued for Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, with potential snow accumulations up to two feet.

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Key points in trade will include the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday on trade volumes, with most activity expected today and tomorrow. Argentine soybean sales to China could affect the US soybean complex. The USDA reported a 2% year-over-year decrease in cattle on feed, with placements down 10% year-over-year. Milk production in 24 major states rose 3.9% to 18.7 billion pounds in October. Strong winds and storms were forecast for parts of the Midwest and South, potentially causing damage and power outages.

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Commodity markets saw limited buying, with soybean complex support weakening due to potential delays in biofuel incentives. Grains, particularly wheat, faced pressure from increased rain chances and the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The International Grains Council revised corn and wheat production estimates. Cattle futures were affected by lower cash prices and the removal of tariffs on Brazilian beef, which could pressure prices. Weather forecasts indicated potential storms in the southern plains. The podcast also promoted Liberty Ultra herbicide from BASF.

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China increases soybean purchases, and we are seeing solid corn demand from South Korea and Mexico, and potential delays in biofuel incentive suspensions. Ethanol production rose by 1.5% to 7.63 million barrels, with exports averaging 145,000 barrels daily. S&P Global forecasts 95 million acres of corn, 84.5 million acres of soybeans, and 44 million acres of wheat for 2026. Cattle carcass weight averaged 956 pounds, and China imported 560,000 metric tons of corn in October.

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Chinese soybean purchases are supporting the market, with a 12 million metric ton agreement. Brazil's soybean crop estimate was slightly reduced, indicating it may peak. Grains are mixed, with corn and wheat seeing elevated positioning. China imported 70,000 metric tons of pork in October, a 21% year-over-year decrease. Retail growth in China was 2.9% in October, the lowest since August 2024. The EPA and Army Corps proposed a new Waters of the US rule. Livestock traders are cautious due to tariff reductions and the upcoming cattle on feed report. Weather forecasts predict heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Midwest and central plains.

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China booked 14 U.S. soybean vessels, boosting export bases and supporting the market. NOPA crush reached an all-time high of 227.65 million bushels, indicating increased soybean demand. Export inspections showed corn loadings at 2.05 million metric tons, soybeans at 1.18 million metric tons, and wheat at 246,533 metric tons. Livestock markets saw feeder cattle leading a charge, with mixed box beef prices. Weather forecasts included light snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and rain in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic.

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The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed US soybean carryout at 290 million bushels, the tightest in three years. Corn stocks globally are down 34 million metric tons in two years. The White House's tariff rollback was positive but raised concerns about trade deals. USDA updated beef and pork balance sheets, with beef production for 2026 trimmed to 25.76 billion pounds. Cattle prices are mixed, and weather forecasts predict scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central plains.

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The WASDE update is expected to lower U.S. yields and production but maintain steady to slightly higher carryout demand, particularly for soybean exports and corn feed. The market is influenced by interest rates, with potential steady rates in December and rising inflation. USDA predicts Brazil's soybean crop at 175 million metric tons, corn at 131 million metric tons, and wheat at 7.5 million metric tons. Drought conditions in the Midwest have expanded slightly, affecting major corn and soybean producers. Livestock futures are down, and a new sterrefly dispersal facility in Mexico raises border concerns. Red flag warnings for fire danger are issued in Northwestern Nebraska and South Dakota due to extremely dry conditions.

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The CONAB update on Brazil and the delayed weekly ethanol report were released, with the November WASDE report expected tomorrow. Soybean sales outside China remain strong, but trade is skeptical about future sales due to weather and US economic pressures. Tractor and combine sales plummeted in October. Cattle and hog markets were volatile, with live cattle and hogs losing ground. Dry and windy conditions in South Dakota and Texas increase wildfire risks.

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The agricultural market's focus on positioning ahead of the USDA's upcoming report and the potential impact of the reopening of the US government on data release. The conversation highlighted the importance of export sales, the financial market's interest in labor data, and the influence of South American weather on crop estimates. Dairy prices plummeted, with cheese blocks down 8.4% weekly and 6.3% annually, while milk production rose 4.2% year-over-year to 18.3 billion pounds. The weather forecast included dry conditions in northern Missouri and extreme eastern Kansas, and potential snow and wind in northern Indiana.

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Soybean exports were below trade estimates, with 1.09 million metric tons. Soybean crush reached a record 205.4 million bushels in September, a 10% increase. Cattle futures are supported by tight inventory but face uncertain demand. Hogs may see profit-taking due to lower pork supplies. Dry conditions in the US southern plains and snow showers in Ohio were also highlighted.

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Futures are positive due to a partial government shutdown resolution, with gold up $80. China's soybean purchases are uncertain, affecting market confidence. The November WASDA report is expected to adjust US production estimates. Consumer confidence dropped significantly, impacting investor sentiment. A bipartisan vote extended government funding until January, but ACA tax credits remain unresolved. Cattle futures declined, and weather forecasts predict severe storms in Indiana and Illinois, with freezing conditions in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

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Trade with China remains uncertain, with a 75% chance of the US Supreme Court ruling against President Trump's tariffs, affecting US exports. The USDA's next WASDE report is anticipated, with expectations of reduced corn and soybean production. Drought conditions have worsened in a nine-state region, particularly in Iowa and Illinois, impacting corn and soybean growth. Cattle futures face challenges, with tight supplies offering some support. Box beef prices were mixed, with choice down and select up. Weather conditions, including fire risks in Nebraska and cold fronts in the Midwest.

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The U.S. government shutdown has reached 36 days, affecting trade. Mississippi water levels are rising, while Brazil and Argentina's planting progresses normally. Russia will allow 20 million metric tons of grain exports, up from 10.6 million last year. Ethanol production hit a record high, with output rising to 1.120 million barrels a day. The cattle market faces uncertainty due to tariff reviews and funding issues for SNAP. Dry conditions in Iowa raise wildfire concerns, with snow expected later in the week.

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Soybean prices dropped due to profit-taking after a $52 rally, with traders awaiting Chinese business. Corn prices rose due to high export interest and drier Brazilian crops. Wheat prices fell slightly despite US drought stress. SP Global projected a US corn yield of 185.5 bushels per acre and a soybean yield of 53 bushels per acre. Archer Daniels Midland's third-quarter profits declined, particularly in the crushing business. Cattle markets were impacted by government rumors, and weather forecasts included windy conditions in Oklahoma and Arkansas, with a cold front expected late Saturday.

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China's purchase of Brazilian soybeans is reducing market bullishness, with ADM shares down nearly 8% due to biofuel policy uncertainty. Export inspections showed corn at 1.67 million metric tons, soybeans at 965,063 metric tons, and wheat at 350,293 metric tons. AGCO expects a rough 2025 and flat 2026 due to trade concerns and high costs, reporting $6 billion in sales and $1.35 EPS in Q3 2025. Dry weather warnings were issued for central Nebraska, with winds gusting up to 35 mph.

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It's a stronger start for grains due to light new month buying and trade tensions easing with China's purchase of seven U.S. soybean vessels. The U.S. harvest is 85-90% complete, with soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels. The EPA is urged to reallocate small refiner waivers to maintain the Renewable Fuel Standard. Livestock markets saw lower cash prices, with Southern live cattle down $4 and Northern dress cattle down $9-$11. Dry conditions in Minnesota and Wisconsin pose wildfire risks, while frost warnings are issued for Arkansas.

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Pre-weekend and month-end consolidation were primary trade goals, with trade hesitant without Chinese confirmation. Brazil's safrinha production areas are drying, and the U.S. government shutdown affects SNAP benefits. Drought conditions improved slightly in an 11-state area, but worsened in Iowa and Wisconsin. The October live cattle contract ends, with futures adjusting to cash prices. Box beef prices fell, and frost advisories were issued for Missouri and other states.

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The lack of results for ag from the U.S.-China trade meeting yesterday is disappointing for the industry, particularly for soybeans. The ongoing government shutdown disrupted news flow, affecting export sales and the November WASDA report. Ethanol production declined slightly, with inventories rising to 22.316 million barrels. Cattle imports from Mexico remain halted, pressuring the market. Freeze warnings were issued from Central Nebraska to Central Texas, signaling the end of the season's freeze warnings.

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Mixed to weaker futures are being seen due to profit-taking after recent gains in corn, soybeans, and wheat. China's purchase of three U.S. soybean vessels was noted as supportive but insufficient to sustain momentum. The European Union trimmed its grain and oilseed crops, with no increase in corn or soybean imports. American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland highlighted rising input costs and urged lawmakers to act. Live cattle and feeder cattle features saw mixed results, with cash cattle expected to trade lower. Weather warnings for freeze and high winds were issued across the Midwest and southern plains.

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There is a rebound going on in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets, driven by improved trade relations with China. Final U.S. harvest data show less production than expected, with 72% of corn and 84% of soybeans harvested, behind last year's pace. Iowa experienced a hard freeze, while Kansas saw delayed wheat planting due to Fall Armyworms. Cattle markets are affected by the Mexican border situation and weather, with feeder cattle prices dropping. Freezing weather is expected across several states, impacting livestock and crops.

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Gains are being felt in the commodity markets, particularly soy oil, soy meal, and soybeans, driven by a potential trade deal with China. China is expected to need 250-300 million bushels of soybeans before the next South American crop. The U.S. government remains closed, but a new trade framework was unveiled, potentially ending China's halt on U.S. agricultural imports. Global grain production is expected to rise, with wheat output forecast at 827 million tons. Cattle futures were pressured by government actions, and cooler weather is forecast for the southern plains, with potential for hard freezes and increased wildfire risks.

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Profit-taking occurred in futures after a recent rise, with global trade, particularly US-China relations, being a key focus. Japan's soybean imports from the US are expected to increase minimally, while India is interested in non-GMO corn. Drought conditions improved slightly in an 11-state area, with specific percentages for states like Iowa and Illinois. Live cattle futures showed uncertainty, and feeder cattle prices were affected by the government shutdown. Freezing weather is moving east, and flood watches are in effect for parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

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Corn, soybeans, and wheat are seeing strength, supported by light buying. The energy complex, including crude oil and gold, is also rising, aiding the ag sector. The USDA resumed some services and is expected to release $3 billion in ag subsidies. The White House plans to import more beef from Argentina, facing opposition. Argentina's soybean exports are projected to rise significantly. Ethanol production surged to its highest level in four months, while inventories dropped. Weather forecasts include freeze warnings across the Corn Belt.

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November options expire this Friday. Better rains are forecast for Brazil and Argentina, but dry areas persist. Trade talks with China are progressing, but concerns about a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi impacted markets. China's deflation and reduced consumer demand, including a 1.6% decline in restaurant sales, are affecting commodity demand. The USDA will distribute $3 billion in Farm Aid, with operations resuming tomorrow.

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Soybeans are serving as the market leader

with moderate gains, while corn and wheat showed fractional gains and minimal losses, respectively. Harvest yields are lower than expected, supporting market prices. US-China trade relations improved, boosting export business despite the government shutdown. Weekly export inspections met or exceeded estimates. President Trump's suggestion of importing beef from Argentina to lower prices sparked concerns among cattlemen, with no significant impact expected due to tight cattle supply. Weather forecasts included freeze warnings and strong winds affecting planting.

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Soybean meal posted solid gains due to falling yield reports and potential Chinese demand, while grains held steady. Gold continued its upward trend, driven by global financial risks. The US government shutdown may delay the November WASD report. Potash and phosphate prices fell, with potash down 1.5% to $328 a ton and phosphate down 0.3% to $851 a ton. Nitrogen prices remained unchanged. Cattle traders liquidated due to President Trump's beef price statement. High wind warnings were issued for North and South Dakota, and freeze warnings for western Kansas and eastern Colorado.

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Risk buying is supporting corn, soybeans and wheat.. Yield data suggested crops might fall short of USDA estimates. Wheat demand rose due to dry conditions in the southern plains. Ethanol production increased to 1.074 million barrels per day, while stocks dropped to 22.612 million barrels. Cattle futures remained bullish, with President Trump addressing high beef prices. Thunderstorms and cold weather were forecast for parts of the U.S., affecting planting and crop conditions.

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Harvest data shows yields below early estimates, with 44% of the U.S. corn harvest and 58% of soybeans completed. Iowa farmers faced fungal diseases due to wet conditions, with fungicide-treated corn performing better. Cattle futures were mixed, and boxed beef prices varied. Weather forecasts predicted scattered thunderstorms in parts of South Dakota and Iowa, with a low severe weather threat.

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It appears that China is avoiding US imports, and the White House is targeting Spain. US soybean inspections for overseas delivery increased to 994,008 metric tons, up from 783,495 tons the previous week. Live cattle futures have risen for eight consecutive days, with feeder cattle contracts closing over $4 higher. Boxed beef prices showed gains, with choice up 51 cents and select up 80 cents. Weather forecasts predicted above-normal temperatures in parts of Missouri and Kansas, with thunderstorms possible by Friday. Frost is possible in southern Michigan.

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The US government shutdown is impacting trade data releases. Chinese soybean imports surged 13% year-over-year in September, with a 24% increase from Brazil. US-China trade tensions remain, with potential tariff increases. Livestock markets are strong, with tight cattle supplies driving prices. Weather forecasts include cold fronts in Ohio and thunderstorms in central Iowa.

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Soybeans show some strength, while wheat prices fell due to increased global production estimates, including a 600,000 metric ton rise in Russia's harvest forecast. Corn basis firmed as farmers held off marketing. Trade tensions with China added $1.66 per bushel to US soybean costs. China is diversifying corn and soybean sourcing, including investments in Angola. The National Corn Growers Association expects a 50% increase in ethanol demand with E15 blends. Cattle futures were strong, with November futures gaining 2048. Frost advisories were issued for parts of the Midwest.

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The impact of US-China trade tensions on commodity markets has caused soybean futures to weaken due to a $50 per metric ton import cost increase and potential Chinese retaliation. The ongoing US government shutdown is limiting data flow and affecting markets. The International Monetary Fund forecast a weaker 2026 global economy, partly due to US tariffs. Deere & Company is seeing opportunities overseas despite a 20% drop in early purchase orders. Cattle futures are supported by tight supplies, with box beef prices showing some stability. Strong winds and low humidity in parts of Minnesota raise wildfire risks.

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Corn yields are variable, with some farmers reporting yields 50-70 bushels per acre below last year due to disease pressure. Soybean yields are less variable, but concern over low moisture persists. China's demand remains strong. Basis values are firming, and open interest is up for both corn and soybeans. Ethanol production rose to 1.07 million barrels per day, with inventories falling to 22.71 million barrels. The cattle complex recouped losses, with feeder cattle futures leading gains. Dry weather in Iowa is expected to give way to storms, with freeze warnings issued for Michigan and parts of Indiana and Ohio.

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US wheat harvest is progressing, and there are firming basis values despite low yields and potential subsidies. Corn and soybean basis values have risen, with soybean basis up 15 cents in the east and 40 cents in the west. The government shutdown delayed the release of the monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates. Winter wheat planting in Kansas is progressing, with 34% planted as of September 28, compared to a five-year average of 36%. Cattle prices are strong, with choice box beef at $63 and select at $91.20. Severe weather is forecast for parts of the southern plains, while freeze warnings are in effect in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

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Basis is firming in terms of values in the western and eastern Corn Belt, and soybean basis in the eastern region. The US government shutdown has delayed the monthly world agricultural supply and demand estimates. Weekly export inspections showed corn loadings at 1.6 million metric tons, soybean loadings at 768,117 metric tons, and wheat at 505,096 metric tons. AGCO forecasts moderate growth next year, with a $1 billion share buyback program. The cattle market faces tight supplies, with cash trading lower and box beef prices declining. Weather updates included freeze warnings in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and rainfall expected in western Missouri.

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Except for corn, commodity markets are seeing gains as tech stocks are benefiting from favorable trade deals. Soybean production is expected to fall short of demand. The U.S. government shutdown delays the October world agricultural supply and demand estimates. Global food prices declined in September, with dairy losses offsetting high red meat costs. The Purdue University CME Group ag economy barometer showed a decline in farmers' belief in their farms' strong balance sheets, with crop farmers facing more financial stress. Livestock producers are benefiting from high prices, while grain farmers face production cost increases and crop price weaknesses. Weather updates included freeze warnings in North Dakota and scattered showers in central Iowa.

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Soybeans showed the most profit-taking, with inconsistent yields and crop quality reported for corn and soybeans. Dry conditions in Brazil delayed soybean planting and harvest. The U.S. government shutdown's impact on trade and labor was monitored. California's passage of a bill allowing E15 sales could save drivers $2.7 billion annually. Livestock markets saw lower prices, with box beef and feeder cattle down. Dry weather in South Dakota and Illinois increased wildfire risks. The podcast is sponsored by John Deere, promoting off-season inspections

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The soybean market saw a spike due to potential trade discussions between the U.S. and China. Mixed field reports suggest a decline in U.S. production, supporting the market. Ethanol production dropped to 995,000 barrels per day, down from 1.04 million a week earlier. Cattle futures face a tug of war between tight supplies and reduced demand, with cash cattle trading at $5 lower than last week. Boxed beef prices also declined. Isolated storms were forecasted for parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Missouri, with potential severe weather.

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The impact of the US government shutdown is weighing on market buying interest and the uncertainty surrounding agricultural and economic reports. Key points included a 13% decrease in US corn stocks and an 8% decrease in soybeans from last year, with corn usage projected at 3.11 billion bushels in Q4. Chinese sorghum and corn imports are expected to drop, with sorghum imports forecasted at 5 million metric tons. Cattle futures saw a $5 increase, but beef remains bearish. Scattered thunderstorms are forecasted for parts of Nebraska and Kansas, with temperatures expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal.

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The commodities markets are feeling the impact of a potential U.S. government shutdown on commodity markets, with nearly every trading contract in the red. The September 1 inventory report revealed old crop carryout numbers for corn and soybeans, with corn drying issues in the Corn Belt and soybeans needing rain before harvest. Flash sales of corn to Mexico and potential U.S.-China soybean trade agreements were noted. USDA data showed declining wheat inspections but increasing corn and soybean assessments. Cattle markets are struggling, with boxed beef prices down. Wildfire risks are elevated in parts of South Dakota and Nebraska due to gusty winds and low humidity.

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Corn and soybean markets are stable with mixed yield reports and renewed export interest, particularly from China. Russia's wheat exports are down, keeping demand high. Argentina exported 2.66 million tons of soybeans to China in November and December, impacting U.S. farmers. Cattle futures closed higher despite lower cash prices, and feedlots face a tough decision on holding back cattle. The Midwest is experiencing unseasonably warm temperatures with no significant rainfall expected.

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Harvest yields in corn are variable, with disease pressure reducing yields by up to 70 bushels per acre. Corn and soybean basis are tightening. Argentina resumed soybean exports to China, and India is buying record volumes of soy oil. Mexico's corn imports may increase due to a border closure, impacting US exports. Wheat sales rose 43% week-over-week, with significant purchases from the Philippines, Italy, Indonesia, and Japan. Live cattle futures are under pressure, with box beef prices falling. The Midwest expects dry weather, while the southeast and southwest face potential flash flooding.

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The undervaluation of corn, soybeans, and wheat in the global market is driven by lower yields and strong demand. The interior cash market is choppy, especially for corn, due to increased storage capacity and tightening markets in the Southwest. Argentina reinstated export taxes on grains, beef, and poultry. Ethanol production fell to a four-month low, with inventories rising to 23.416 million barrels. Live cattle futures weakened due to lower box beef prices, and dense fog is expected in parts of the Midwest.

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The US corn harvest is progressing with lower yields than expected, leading to cautious market adjustments. Soybean exports from Argentina to China are surging due to a tax suspension, reducing demand for US soybeans. Wheat prices are firming due to high US demand. The US government plans to allocate $285 billion to support agriculture, including $5.5 billion for export finance. The National Corn Growers Association highlighted near-record high input costs, with corn production costing $897.44 per acre last year. Livestock markets showed mixed results, with feeder cattle demand strong due to border closures. Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of Kansas and Texas, with flood warnings issued.

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The soybean market's weakness is due to Argentina's suspended export taxes, which lowered prices. Despite a rally in tech stocks and concerns over the U.S. economy, crude oil prices dropped due to demand worries. China imported a record 12.3 million metric tons of soybeans in August, with 85% from Brazil and a 31% increase from the U.S. U.S. egg production declined by 2% in August, with a 5% rise in egg-type chicks. The cattle on feed report triggered a bullish response, and the discovery of the New World screw worm near the U.S. border could impact markets. Excessive rain in Kansas increased flood risks.

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The uncertainty in U.S. corn production and the persistent demand, with flash sales returning. Harvest yields are mixed, with some corn crops dying. Soybean yields are struggling due to a 36% drop in Chinese demand, with domestic demand remaining high. Trade tensions with China and Taiwan, along with seasonal harvest pressure, are driving safe-haven buying, with gold prices rising. A new case of New World screw worm near the U.S.-Mexico border was reported. Lower Mississippi River levels due to drought are affecting barge rates. Investors are turning bullish on beans, reducing net short positions. Cattle futures are rising despite weak cash and boxed beef prices. Severe weather is forecasted for the central and southern plains.

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Uncertainty in U.S. corn yields and quality is leading to questions about price discovery. China's soybean purchases are below expectations. Presidential talks between Trump and Xi may influence ag trade. Brazil's CONAB projected a 138.3 million metric ton corn crop for 2025-2026, down slightly from last year, with soybean production at 177.7 million metric tons. Wheat sales and exports saw significant week-over-week increases. Cattle traders are maintaining long positions amid weak boxed beef prices. Isolated thunderstorms and potential flooding were noted in the weather segment.

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.Wheat demand is strong due to logistical issues in the Black Sea, with U.S. exports 12% ahead of last year. Soybean demand remains robust despite minimal Chinese buying and weather concerns. Corn yields are impacted by disease and export demand. Ethanol production dropped to its lowest level since May, with inventories declining. Cattle futures may face a price correction due to reduced beef consumption. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Severe weather is expected in parts of the Midwest, with potential localized flooding.

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The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut may be limited by rising inflation. Economists predict a 40% chance of recession due to labor reports and inflation. Corn demand is high, soybean harvest is progressing with low moisture issues, and wheat exports could increase by 35 million bushels. US-China trade talks and potential US-India trade discussions could boost commodity demand. The EPA's proposal to reallocate renewable volume credits was welcomed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Livestock markets showed mixed results, with cattle futures weak and feeder cattle demand strong.

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The challenges in corn and soybean yields include some areas experiencing below-average yields and high shatter rates. Despite this, U.S. corn and soybean exports are up significantly, with soybean crush running 20% ahead of last year. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to a weakening labor market. Brazil's corn planting is slightly behind last year, and soybean planting is just starting. Export inspections of corn, wheat, and soybeans are up, with corn inspections at 1.51 million metric tons. Cattle futures are supported by tight supplies, and thunderstorms are forecast for parts of the southern plains and eastern Iowa.

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The USDA's August WASDE report showed a slight bearish trend despite increased harvestable acres. Disease pressure in corn fields is causing significant yield losses. Weather forecasts predict favorable conditions for harvest activity. Money managers turned bearish on soybean futures, with a net short position of 13,382 contracts. In corn, the net short position increased to 99,593 contracts. Livestock markets saw a negative tone, with cash cattle prices down. Storms are possible in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and dry conditions may lead to fire risks in Central

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All eyes are on the release of the September WASDE report today. Market traders anticipate small revisions to August figures, with corn yield trimmed by 2.5 bushels per acre and crop size reduced by 250 million bushels. Soybean yield is expected to fall slightly, and total crop size is forecast to be down 20 million bushels. Wheat stocks are steady, with larger production in South America. Corn and soybean exports surged year-over-year. Livestock markets are unaffected by Trump's beef price policy. Severe thunderstorms are forecast for parts of North Dakota and Illinois, posing flood risks.

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Tomorrow's WASDE report is expected to show trimmed corn and soybean stocks and minimal wheat stock builds. Water levels in U.S. rivers are declining, potentially impacting exports and harvest logistics. Chinese demand for soybeans remains low, with record stocks at Chinese ports. Ethanol production surged to 1.105 million barrels per day, the highest since June 13. Live cattle futures dipped, while feeder cattle contracts showed losses. Hot weather is forecasted for parts of Missouri, with thunderstorms expected in Kansas.

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With the WASDE report coming out on Friday, corn yields are expected to be trimmed, with the USDA potentially reducing demand. Soybean production cuts could have a larger impact on stocks. Wheat balance sheets are expected to remain unchanged. The livestock complex is focusing on Farm Bill 2.0, with the House aiming for September action. Brazilian beef exports are forecast to decline in 2026, affecting both production and exports. Live cattle futures dropped, and feeder cattle saw significant limit losses.

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Yields on corn and soybeans are expected to fall short of USDA estimates. Early reports indicate a slightly larger corn crop than last year, but quality concerns are rising. South American planting is underway, shifting market focus. Corn inspections for export rose to 1.44 million metric tons, while wheat and soybean assessments declined. A trade dispute between the EU and China escalated, with China imposing higher duties on EU pork imports. Cattle futures were mixed, with live cattle trading $2 lower. Flood warnings are in effect for parts of Kansas and Nebraska.

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Frost was noted on crop quality in the northern Midwest, and drought conditions have led to draft restrictions on the Mississippi River, affecting harvest and fertilizer transportation. The U.S. and Japan agreed on a trade deal, with Japan increasing corn, soybean, and bioethanol purchases to $8 billion annually. Speculators reduced net short positions in corn and soybeans, while hedge funds increased short positions in wheat. Cattle futures showed weakness, with cash prices fluctuating, and box beef prices declined. The September WASDE report will be issued on Friday.

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Corn and soybean prices held firm due to limited selling interest and lower-than-expected corn yields. The US Dollar's softness and delayed export sales data also supported markets. Ethanol production rose to 1.075 million barrels per day, with significant increases in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. Cattle futures declined, and a freeze watch was issued for western North Dakota. In Missouri, light rain and colder temperatures were forecasted.

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Concerns over the U.S. economy and a potential government shutdown, which has driven gold prices up and reduced interest in commodities. The market is awaiting firm U.S. yield data, with private analysts trimming corn and soybean yields. A flash sale of soy meal occurred, but large sales have been scarce. The Renewable Fuels Association applauded the passage of Assembly Bill 30 in California, which could save consumers $2.7 billion annually if E15 is available. Cattle futures are holding support levels, and intense winds are forecast for North Dakota and South Dakota, with potential damage and travel difficulties.

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US corn and soybean crops are seeing a decline in ratings due to both normal maturity and disease. Market bulls are struggling to support yield estimates, including those from the USDA. US trade talks have stalled, and the export market has slowed. Soybean crush in the US increased by 5.9% year-over-year, with 6.14 million tons crushed in July. Cattle prices remain strong, but futures could weaken. Severe weather threats include large hail and damaging winds in Central Iowa, with more showers expected in central Nebraska and north-central Kansas.

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The impact of Southern rust and tar spot on corn yields could lead to potential losses of 20 bushels per acre in treated fields and 50 bushels per acre in untreated fields. Drought is also affecting crop estimates. A federal judge struck down many of President Trump's tariffs, potentially impacting trade negotiations. The US dollar is rallying while equities fall, and gold is reaching new highs. Scattered storms are forecast for parts of the Midwest.

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Friday was the end of the old crop marketing year for corn and soybeans, with the livestock complex mixed but lower due to profit-taking and overbought technical levels. Concerns include the lack of Chinese new crop demand for U.S. soybeans, with 7.2 million metric tons sold but none to China. China has booked 16.3 million metric tons of soybeans, primarily from South America and Australia. Canadian wheat production is down 1.1% to 35.49 million metric tons, with a 14.3% increase in winter wheat and a 3.6% rise in canola. Corn production is up 1.4% to 15.55 million metric tons, while soybean production is down 7% to 7 million metric tons. Weather notes highlighted potential heavy rain in the Mississippi River Valley.

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Corn prices are up, soybeans are mixed, and wheat is down. The weather is less impactful as harvest begins, with early corn maturity and white mold concerns in soybeans. Red meat exports increased, with beef sales up 34% and pork sales down 10%. Corn exports dropped to 2.09 million metric tons, led by Mexico. Soybean sales rose to 1.37 million metric tons. Wheat exports surged to 1 million metric tons. Cattle futures were under pressure, and feeder cattle remained in demand. Scattered showers are forecasted across the Midwest.

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The ag markets are awaiting harvest data, with solid new crop demand expected, especially for corn. Soybean and wheat bookings are also favorable. Ethanol output fell to its lowest level in three months, averaging 1.07 million metric tons. Cattle futures hit new highs, but boxed beef prices declined. Persistent showers in the Corn Belt may cause flooding. The National Weather Service issued flood warnings and watches for several regions.

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Weather models are indicating a dry finish to US soybeans and potential Chinese sales. Corn prices have dropped 50% since 2022, but production costs have only decreased 3.3%, leading to significant financial challenges for U.S. corn growers. The USDA forecasts a record 16.7 billion bushels of corn production. Beef prices rose again yesterday, with choice up 4.68 and select up 38. Severe weather is low risk in central Nebraska and central Illinois

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It's early contract positioning, particularly for September contracts, with uncertain yields and weather impacting the Corn Belt. USDA inspections showed a rise in corn and wheat exports but a decline in soybean inspections. Cattle futures opened lower but recovered due to lower feedlot placements and a new case of the New World screw worm in the U.S. Flood watches were issued for Central Oklahoma, with heavy rain expected. The five-state weekly averages reached new highs, and box beef prices increased.

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Trade is digesting smaller yield estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour, with US cumulative new crop corn sales at 16.7 million metric tons, nearing an all-time record. Soybean demand is good, but hindered by lack of Chinese business. Egg production in July declined 3% year-over-year, with 8.79 billion eggs produced. The cattle complex reached new highs due to strong equity markets and bullish Fed comments, but a neutral to negative cattle on feed report may dampen sentiment. Flood watches were issued for parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, and thunderstorms are expected in South Dakota.

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Soybean demand surged, with the domestic crush margin on soybeans rising 13 cents to $2.13 per bushel. Drought conditions in the Midwest, particularly in Michigan, are impacting corn and soybean crops. US red meat production declined, with beef down 4% and pork down 4% year-over-year. Cattle futures were mixed, with cash cattle prices steady. Strong winds and showers were forecasted for parts of North Dakota and Minnesota, posing flood risks. The podcast also highlighted the decline in US farm numbers and production.

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Pro Farmer Crop tour results indicate good yields but fall short of current USA production estimates. Corn disease cases are rising, affecting quality rather than production. Brazil's pork exports are expected to increase by 7.2% this year, potentially impacting U.S. exports. Ethanol production dropped to its lowest level in three months, with output averaging 1.072 million barrels per day. Cattle prices continue to rise, with new contract highs daily. Storms are forecasted in parts of the Midwest, posing a risk of severe weather and flooding.

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The Pro Farmer crop tour revealing high yields, potentially missing USDA estimates, and altering market interest. Soybean prices dropped due to the Philippines suspending its biodiesel mandate, impacting global vegetable oil supply. Cooler weather in the Corn Belt will temper evaporation but not increase precipitation. The American Soybean Association urged President Trump to prioritize soybean trade with China, noting the trade war's financial strain on farmers. US soybean exports to China fell, and China has not purchased US soybeans recently. Boxed beef prices increased, driven by reduced slaughter. Heat advisories were issued for the northern plains, with temperatures expected to reach 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

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The Pro Farmer crop tour, is noting good crops but concerns over reaching US yield targets due to elevated overnight temperatures and pollination issues. Market support persists despite a lack of bullish news. USDA grain and soybean inspections declined week-over-week, with corn and soybean inspections up year-over-year. Livestock markets saw new contract highs for live and feeder cattle, with packers struggling to improve margins. Hot weather advisories were issued across the Midwest, and storms with potential for strong winds were forecast for parts of Nebraska and Kansas.

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Soybean prices are affected by a correction from last week's gains, with the NOPA crush report showing a six-month high. The Pro Farmer crop tour will provide insights into crop potential. Futures demand remains high, especially in grains, with concerns over Chinese trade. The USDA plans to invest $750 million in a sterile fly production facility in Texas. Speculators raised their net short positions on corn and reduced bearish bets on soybeans. Cattle market volatility is high, influenced by the potential Mexican border reopening. Extreme weather alerts were issued for parts of the Midwest and South.

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The trade has been choppy, with significant swings, and traders are looking to even these out. Brazil's corn production increased, but exports are not expected to rise due to high interior demand. The NOPA soybean crush report is expected to show a build in usage from June. Corn sales overseas for the 2025-2026 marketing year dropped, with Mexico being a major buyer. Soybean sales more than doubled, with an unknown country being the largest buyer. Wheat sales fell slightly, but exports plunged 49%. Heat advisories are in effect for the Midwest, with temperatures reaching up to 109 degrees Fahrenheit.Several government reports are set to be released today.

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In yesterday's WASDE Report release, USDA cut to U.S. soybean stocks, which supported commodity markets. The USDA raised the U.S. corn yield to 188.8 bushels per acre. Beef output is projected to fall 3.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while pork output is expected to decrease slightly. Steer prices are forecast to rise 21% to $227 per pound in 2025. Cattle prices are also up, with strong demand driving boxed beef prices higher. Severe storms are expected in northern Nebraska, and extreme heat is forecast for central and southern Illinois.

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US corn sales are over twice last year's pace, focusing the market on production. Brazilian soybean prices are high, but farmers are not selling, impacting US corn prices. Investors reduced net short positions in corn futures, while soybean short positions increased. Cattle futures saw limit moves, with live cattle trading limit down. Weather updates included flood warnings in Kansas and potential flash flooding in Iowa and Illinois.

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The U.S. agricultural trade deficit reached a record high in H1 2025, with a $28.6 billion gap in the first six months. Soybean sales rose 71% week-over-week, while wheat sales increased 25%. Cattle futures surged, and beef demand remained strong despite high prices. Hot weather advisories were issued across the central U.S.

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Corn prices were below $4 a bushel yesterday due to favorable U.S. weather. Stone X estimated the U.S. corn yield at 188.1 bushels per acre, above the USDA's forecast of 181. Soybeans were steady to three cents higher, and wheat saw mixed action. Ethanol production dropped to 1.081 million barrels per day, with inventories at 23.715 million barrels. The cattle complex strengthened, with box beef prices surging. Central U.S. heat advisories were issued, with temperatures reaching up to 108 degrees.

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The USDA forecasts a potential record 2025-2026 corn yield of 181 bushels per acre, with total production at 15.75 billion bushels. Trade tensions and biofuel policy uncertainty impacted crop trading companies' profits. European Union grain output is expected to reach 279.2 million metric tons. Cattle futures rebounded, and triple-digit temperatures were forecast for parts of the southern plains.

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Wheat traders await fundamental news, with no trade talks between the US and China. Corn conditions are 73% good to excellent, soybeans 69%, and winter wheat harvested at 86%. South American soybean trades to China increased by 30 cents a bushel, while US Gulf prices declined. Corn inspections fell to 1.21 million metric tons, soybean inspections rose to 612,539 tons, and wheat assessments increased to 599,595 tons. Cattle futures remain tight, with strong consumer demand. Severe thunderstorms are forecasted in North Dakota and Central Illinois.

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The USDA fats and oils report showed 197.1 million bushels of soybeans crushed in June, a record for the month. US crude oil output reached a new high in May 2025. Old crop US corn sales are at a 16-year high. Farm real estate prices rose 4.3% to $4,350 per acre. Cash cattle traded $3 higher, and feed lots hold the upper hand. Severe weather is expected in parts of the Midwest.

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Weather conditions remain mostly benign, but crop damage reports from the Corn Belt, particularly in the upper plains, are concerning. The USDA reported a 1.2% month-to-month decline in June farm prices, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, and a 3.1% drop in grain and oilseed prices from May. The US and Mexico extended trade talks for 90 days, and a 15% tariff cap deal was reached with South Korea. Cattle futures faced a correction due to market vulnerability and Brazilian beef tarif

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Soybean deliveries were lighter than expected, which is positive for the market. The U.S. and South Korea reached a trade deal with 15% tariffs, but traders await deals with Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, and China. Ethanol production rose to 1.096 million barrels per day, the highest since June 13, with inventories at 24.414 million barrels. Live cattle futures outpaced feeder cattle, and box beef prices weakened. Extreme heat warnings persist in parts of the U.S., and rainfall is expected in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

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