Our conversation covers…

• What Quantum Computing Actually Is — A primer on qubits, superposition, and why quantum computers aren’t “faster classical machines” but fundamentally different systems designed to simulate nature and solve specific classes of problems.

• Why Quantum Matters Now — Breakthroughs in error correction and hardware have shifted quantum from theory to an engineering race, with major implications for drug discovery, materials science, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.

• The Economic and National Security Stakes — Quantum’s potential impact on cryptography, advanced manufacturing, biotech, and defense makes it a strategic technology with an extremely small margin for error in global competition.

• From Science Project to Industrial Policy Challenge — The bottleneck is no longer just physics but scaling. Talent pipelines, fabrication capacity, supply chains, and the kinds of public-private partnerships needed to move from lab prototypes to deployable systems.

• What Winning Looks Like — Leadership isn’t just building the first powerful machine. It’s shaping standards, securing supply chains, protecting encryption, diffusing capabilities across industry, and sustaining innovation in a tight U.S.–China technological race.

Plus, the encryption stakes, the engineering bottlenecks, the race with China — and a reading list and job resources for those interested in the field.

Thanks to the Hudson Institute for sponsoring this episode.

Zach’s Quantum Technology Reading List:

• Quantum Computing Fundamentals: But What Is Quantum Computing? by 3Blue1Brown

• Quantum Computing Overview: The Map of Quantum Computing by Domain of Science

• Quantum Sensing: Atomic Advantage: Accelerating U.S. Quantum Sensing for Next-Generation PNT by CNAS

• The Quantum-Classical Divide: Are the Mysteries of Quantum Mechanics Beginning to Dissolve? by Philip Ball, Quanta Magazine (February 2026)

• Systems Engineering Bottlenecks: Computer Science Challenges in Quantum Computing: Early Fault-Tolerance and Beyond by Jens Palsberg et al., IEEE Quantum Week (2025)

Further reading if curious:

• When We Cease to Understand the World by Benjamín Labatut (2021)

• Introduction to Special Issue on the Early History of Nuclear Fusion by M. B. Chadwick and B. Cameron Reed, Fusion Science and Technology (2024)

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• Why Mythos is a Dr. Strangelove moment — and whether the better analogy is a nuke or a pandemic
• Who gets the keys: Ukraine vs. South Korea vs. Japan vs. the Five Eyes, and why the Defense Production Act now looks likelier than the supply-chain-risk designation
• The death of the patch model — and the return of air-gapped networks, mesh comms, and couriers shuttling classified work in person

• Steve Feinberg's half-trillion-dollar portfolio, the rise of direct-reporting program managers, and why a Senate-confirmed deputy can now make American industry rise and fall

Hey God It's Dario song: https://suno.com/s/2d0u5eLbSyzDeDY3

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We discuss:

• Why "counterfactual policy impact" matters more than white papers and what's wrong with project-based funding
• Cross-partisanship vs. picking sides: IFP pulls the rope sideways, FAI builds a big tent on the right
• Vertical integration over specialization — the person who wrote the brief should be the one selling it on the Hill
• Whether AI eats the think tank or just the parts that weren't working anyway

Timestamps

00:38 — Applied think tank vs. white paper mill

16:56 — Partisanship: FAI's conservative tent vs. IFP's cross-partisan design

37:09 — Why researchers should do their own comms and outreach

50:26 — Betting on young talent as policy entrepreneurs

57:56 — Will AI eat the think tank?

song: https://suno.com/s/I244K1rIpPdB6lO9

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We discuss…

• Whether Iran’s Strait of Hormuz toll booth is a Trump card or a wasting asset

• How the administration fumbled the messaging on the war’s most heroic moment — the JSOC pilot rescue deep inside Iran

• The Prussia 1806 parallel: are we a great military machine that’s forgotten how to fight?

• Colby’s bizarre knife fight with Pope Leo

• McMasterism, dereliction of duty, and why no one is pushing back

song: https://suno.com/s/uGE7Es3ELd6r8ao5

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To discuss, we’re joined by Cat Buchatskiy, Director of Analytics at Snake Island, a military analytical group, along with Chris Miller

Our conversation covers:

• How battlefield pressure forced Ukraine to build a drone war machine from scratch — from a handful of soldiers flying off-the-shelf drones to domestic assembly at a massive scale.

• Ukraine’s industrial legacy and whole-of-society mobilization repurposed its civilian tech sector into a wartime industrial base.

• Why modular design, frontline reassembly, and tight feedback loops allow Ukraine to iterate faster than traditional defense systems.

• The constraints of global supply chains, the impact of export controls, and how China is playing both sides of the war.

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Then: the AWACS that "only" lost a third of itself on a Saudi tarmac, why CENTCOM is still parking high-value aircraft like it's 2003, and what Operation Spiderweb and three years of Ukrainian drone warfare should have taught us but didn't. Plus Pete Hegseth's ongoing purge of the officer corps, the Enron theory of Pentagon innovation, and why the War of 1812 is the best analogy for where this is all heading.

Tony's article on CENTCOM sucking: https://www.breakingbeijing.com/p/what-did-we-learn-centcom

Justin on just war: https://justinmc.substack.com/p/just-war-theory

song: https://suno.com/s/vroapDDimBnmCxdO

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• The Pendleton Act myth — Why civil service reform didn’t begin or end with Pendleton, and why starting the story there misses what actually made the system work.

• The rise of the subject-matter state — How early 20th-century agencies staffed with real experts — entomologists, engineers, agronomists — made the U.S. bureaucracy arguably the most capable in the world.

• From expertise to org charts — How mid-century functional reorganization hollowed out mission-driven agencies and replaced subject knowledge with process management.

• What competence delivered — From agricultural breakthroughs to infrastructure build-out, what a serious, technically grounded civil service was able to accomplish.

• Whether we can rebuild — DOGE, the abundance movement, state capacity, and why this might be the best time in decades to make the government work again.

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Today’s guest is Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, creator of Spike the Fine Motor Hedgehog, and a successful Supreme Court plaintiff in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. Co-hosting is Peter Harrell, who submitted an amicus brief on the tariff case that shook the world.

Our conversation covers:

• David v. Goliath — Why a mid-sized toy company sued when industry giants stayed silent, and what that says about incentives and courage in corporate America.

• The Existential Math — How tariff costs were set to jump from $2 million to $100 million, putting 500 jobs and a century-old family business at risk.

• Why Manufacturing Stays in China — The hard economics of toy production, supply-chain concentration, and why moving to Vietnam, India, or Mexico isn’t a simple fix.

• Rule of Law and Refunds — What it means to win at the Supreme Court, what should happen with the overcollected tariffs, and the constitutional guardrails around taxation.

• Legacy and Responsibility — Why taking a stand was necessary to protect this company’s mission.

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Shashank Joshi of The Economist, Justin Mc, and Tony Stark drop in to Second Breakfast for week two of the Iran war.

We discuss…

• Why CENTCOM’s 6,000-target tally sounds like a Vietnam body count

• The staggering failure to prepare for mine and drone countermeasures for the one strait CENTCOM exists to keep open

• The prospect of a special forces raid to seize Iran’s HEU

• How AI targeting machines like Maven can generate industrial-scale target banks without a theory of victory

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Our conversation covers…

• Why government software is so broken — Despite spending over $100B annually on IT, critical systems at agencies like the Social Security Administration and U.S. Department of the Treasury still run on decades-old code that few engineers know how to modify.

• How two-year software projects become three-week ones — why AI agents are particularly good at the painful migration and modernization work engineers tend to avoid.

• What “software abundance” actually means — AI agents can handle the tedious work of switching systems 24/7, collapsing the switching costs, and forcing software vendors to compete on value rather than locking customers into outdated systems.

• AI for cybersecurity — From triaging massive vulnerability backlogs to automatically fixing CVEs, AI will be essential for defending critical infrastructure as attackers gain the same tools.

• The coming “post-coding” world — As models converge in capability, the key bottleneck shifts from writing code to understanding problems, reviewing systems, and deciding what should be built in the first place.

Plus, the future of procurement in an AI world, fraud detection in government datasets, the DMV as a software problem, and why Kaplan thinks the real skill of the future is knowing which problems matter.

Thanks so much to Cognition for sponsoring this episode.

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Cohosting today is Bryan Clark of Hudson, JustinMc and Eric Robinson.

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Emmy Probasco, a fellow at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and former Navy officer with deep expertise in autonomous weapons and military AI adoption;

Michael Horowitz, a University of Pennsylvania professor who previously ran the Pentagon office that rewrote U.S. policy on autonomy in weapons systems;

Bryan Clark, a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute and retired Navy officer specializing in naval warfare and military technology; and

Henry Farrell, a political scientist and writer focused on the intersection of technology, geopolitics, and economic coercion.

[00:00] America's First Precise Mass Campaign Against Iran The U.S. debuts the Lucas drone — a sub-$100K system reverse-engineered from Iran's own Shahed 136 — alongside legacy Tomahawk strikes in a campaign of unprecedented scale and velocity.

[10:00] Regime Change Without a Plan The panel debates the theory of victory when you decapitate leadership but have nobody to pick up the pieces, with implications for nuclear proliferation, Gulf stability, and the Strait of Hormuz.

[18:00] Weapons Stockpiles, Air Defense, and What China Is Learning Burning through expensive interceptors against cheap drones risks drawing down Pacific stockpiles, while China gets a front-row seat to how American air defenses operate at scale.

[25:00] Claude Enters the Chat: AI in Military Operations Claude's integration into CENTCOM's Maven Smart System prompts a discussion on what military AI actually does — mostly boring bureaucratic tasks — and why the Terminator narrative misses the point.

[46:00] The Anthropic–Pentagon Fight Mike argues the dispute is about personality and politics, not policy — Anthropic never refused a government request, and the real clash is over who gets to decide future use cases.

[56:00] Treating a U.S. Company Like Huawei Threatening Anthropic with supply chain risk designations — tools built for foreign adversaries — could chill the entire tech sector's willingness to work with the Pentagon and poison allied trust in American tech.

If we're doing emergency pods once a week now should I stop calling them emergency pods?

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Wario Amodei's slow jam vibe: https://suno.com/s/cf3KDdVQ5F0KCjow

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Freedman is now part of the father-son writing duo samf.substack.com.

Note: we recorded this in the summer of 2023. Thanks to the Hudson Institute for sponsoring this conversation.

In this far-reaching conversation, we discuss:

• How the Falklands saved Thatcher’s premiership, making her the Iron Lady,
• Why the great strategic decisions of history rarely have clear, pivotal moments,
• Parallels between Putin, Xi, and the Argentine junta — what the Falklands campaign tells us about Ukraine, Taiwan, and the future of war,
• How nuclear war went from being a “winnable” geopolitical contest to the apocalyptic dog that didn’t bark,
• What Cold War arms control treaties can and can’t tell us about AI,
• The best strategists not covered by last week's interview with Hal Brands,
• Lawrence Freedman's recipe for wide reading and prolific writing.

Outro music: Oh! It's a Lovely War (1918) · Courtland & Jeffries (Youtube Link)

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Eric Slesinger of 201 Ventures drops in https://ericslesinger.com/

outtro music: rubio's speech https://suno.com/s/KnIpTyZIU7iJSeIf

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We discuss…

• The mechanisms behind the success of the CHIPS Act,

• What CHIPS can teach us about other industrial policy challenges, like APIs and rare earths,

• What it takes to build a successful industrial policy implementation team,

• How the fear of “another Solyndra” is holding back US industrial policy,

• Chris Miller’s recent interest in revitalizing America’s chemical industry.

This post is a collaboration with the Factory Settings Substack: https://www.factorysettings.org/. Subscribe for more insights from former CHIPS Program Office leaders!

Suno song link: https://suno.com/s/wwVYK10LfrAD5zK2

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Special thanks to guests Jasmine Sun, Hamilton Morris, Aaron Kesselheim, Marcus, and David. This episode was produced by Lily Ottinger with additional reporting from Irene Zhang and Nick Corvino.

Check out Jasmine's NYT article here.

ChinaTalk merch available now at https://chinatalk.printful.me/. Your purchase helps us make more content like this!

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We discuss:

• Rickover’s immigrant origin story from Polish village to almost being deported at Ellis Island and his improbable path into the Naval Academy.

• Drive, discipline, expertise, and how Rickover bent Washington to his will.

• Rickover as tyrant, teacher, technocrat — what his contradictions reveal about leadership, power, and effectiveness.

• Why Rickover matters now — nuclear revival, defense procurement reform, engineers vs. lawyers, and a major archival digitization effort.

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We discuss:

• How China’s game industry climbed the value chain from low-cost mobile and PC titles to globally competitive AAA releases,

• Why Genshin Impact reset global expectations, becoming the template for live-service “cash cows,”

• China’s domestic market’s newfound self-sufficiency, as hundreds of millions of middle-class gamers mean Chinese developers no longer need international success,

• Steam’s magical liminal status in China as a de facto gateway for uncensored and imported games,

• Why gaming is a global language in ways movies and music aren’t, and how mechanics and genres travel even when stories don’t,

• The Wuchang: Fallen Feathers controversy, where nationalist backlash led to patched-out boss deaths and preemptive self-censorship.

We also cover Daniel’s pick for the biggest Chinese game of 2026, the looming Genshin-style live-service bubble, and how a game set in 1984 East Germany channels distinctly Chinese workplace anxiety.

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Chapters

00:00 Cultural Exchange and Chinese Short Form Content

08:14 Influencers and the Appeal of the China Aesthetic

14:13 Contradictions in the Chinese Narrative

25:06 Recommendations for Exploring Chinese Culture

33:33 Jia Zhangke's Cinematic Vision

38:12 Chengdu hip hop

41:48 The Future of Chinese Cultural Products

42:56 Censorship and the Dynamics of Domestic Entertainment in China

Outtro Music:

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suno: https://suno.com/s/SJ0FoEPMVZ3QS441

'He couldn’t capture Canada, but captured infamy— The only general in history who failed at treason and geography!'

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The disney take on PLA purges: https://suno.com/s/Wv1yQyxdUhWBzyA0

08:50 Deep read into the WSJ nuke traitor allegations

22:10 Xi getting paranoid?

26:13 Taiwan implications

32:38 Succession implications

45:55 It must really suck to work in Chinese politics

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Jordan's flower app: https://cut-from-the-masters.vercel.app/

Jordan's acting app: https://acting-trainer.vercel.app/

Jordan's mahjong trainer app: https://mazel-jong.vercel.app

Suno song: https://suno.com/s/BArMAm90qTxbupUz

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Davos disco: https://suno.com/s/2SpR62beigk2JeDr

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Our guest today is Dan Kim, who served at USITC with stints at Qualcomm and SK hynix before returning to government as the Chief Economist for the CHIPS Program Office. He recently joined TechInsights as Chief Strategy Officer. Also joining us is Chris Miller of Chip War fame. 

We discuss:

• What $39 billion can and can’t buy — why the CHIPS Act was never meant to de-risk the U.S. from China or Taiwan, and what “success” looks like when autarky is neither affordable nor desirable,
• Apple vs. Xiaomi + BYD — invention versus fast-following as competing models of national power, and which system performs better when the goal shifts from profit maximization to geopolitical resilience,
• What resilience actually means — capability vs. capacity, weakest links, and whether economic security should be measured as “time to recovery” rather than self-sufficiency,
• Managed dependence vs. overreliance, and whether dependence itself can be a form of power,
• Why the U.S. still lacks a clear theory, metrics, and institutional design for industrial strategy — and what you can do about it.

Subscribe to the ChinaTalk Substack to stay updated about the essay contest!

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• Xi, Trump, and what drove the roller coaster of US-China relations in 2025
• Why it feels too quiet right now and what could get this train off the rails in 2026

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Do note we conducted this interview in July of 2025.

We discuss Richard's excellent paper on AI and cyber you can find here: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4079-1.html

Teddy Collins cohosts. Thanks to Hudson for sponsoring this episode.

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Before joining the Hoover Institution, Mike Kuiken spent two decades on the Hill including as the senior national security advisor for Senator Schumer and as a PSM on the Senate Armed Services Committee. He was appointed to the commission by Leader Schumer. Leland Miller, the co-founder and CEO of China Beige Book, was appointed by Speaker Mike Johnson.

We get into…

• What the U.S.-China Commission does, and why “alligators closest to the boat” explains Congress’s blind spots,

• The case for an economic statecraft agency, and reorganization lessons from post-9/11 sanctions reform,

• The year supply chains became sexy — and the best-case scenario for responding to chokepoints like rare earths and pharmaceuticals,

• Xi’s unresponsiveness to consumer spending concerns, and the military-tech developments he’s targeting instead,

• The quantum software gap, synthetic biology in space, and Congress’s role in competing with China.

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happy new year!

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Today, our conversation covers: 

• METI’s reputation as a juggernaut of industrial policy, and how the organization has evolved since the 1970s,

• How Japan conceives of and pursues economic security,

• METI’s criteria for market intervention, and how it balances economic security considerations with business incentives,

• Japan’s experience dealing with China’s weaponization of rare earths,

• How Japan maintains strong relationships with the U.S and other allies.

Thanks to the U.S.-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this episode.

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Joe Weisenthal, host of Odd Lots and my podcast host alter ego, come to celebrate his ten years of hosting, reflect on the medium and China.

01:21 following your podcasting bliss

21:19 handling guests

26:06 china

46:04 journalism integrity

49:24 parenting in nyc

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Book: Thousand Mile War https://www.amazon.com/Thousand-Mile-War-Aleutians-Classic-Reprint/dp/0912006838

Outtro music:

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We discuss:

• The “Fear Factor” in Asia: Why Japan and South Korea are ramping up defense spending not because of Trump’s strength, but because his unpredictability and isolationism have forced them to buy “insurance policies” against a U.S. exit,

• Corruption and “Own Goals”: How “draining the swamp” has turned into institutional degradation — and why the Trump family’s entanglement of personal business interests with foreign policy damages U.S. credibility and strategic leverage,

• Adversary, Not Competitor: Why the U.S. needs to stop viewing China as a strategic competitor and start treating it as a strategic adversary — one whose win-lose economic model is designed to hollow out global industrial bases,

• Education as National Security: Why tariffs are a distraction and the only real way to beat China is a massive domestic push for workforce training,

• AI and Inequality: Rahm’s evolving thinking on artificial intelligence — why he’s still learning and why a technology that boosts productivity but widens inequality is a political and social risk.

Plus: prescient observations on Iran, why Ari Emanuel’s robot UFC idea might actually be sound policy, Rahm’s case that he’s now the real free-market capitalist in the room, and rapid-fire takes on J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and the 2028 Republican field.

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• Why his 1992 dissertation on détente is suddenly relevant again – and why “positive linkage” fails to change adversary behavior,

• How mutual assured destruction has shifted from nuclear weapons to rare earths, supply chains, and technology, and why the U.S. and China are stuck in a costly, uncomfortable stalemate,

• Trump’s unorthodox use of economic leverage and America’s resilience problem,

• CFR’s new cross-fellow initiatives on China, economics, and open-source analysis,

• Plus: an inside look at how think tanks work — salaries, funding, and what to expect from Mike Froman’s tenure leading the CFR.

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• The hottest NDAA takes on the airwaves (DFC, OSC, AUKUS, Taiwan, contested logistics, Xi's money)
• Tony has an amazing tv pitch for the deposed dictator White Lotus
• SOCOM creatine and super soldiers

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outtro music, a fan song to Jameison Greer: https://suno.com/s/yTi5R7xDRcM7p2ho

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26:18 we get into the second strike

Tony's Taiwan baseball podcast rec: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6s26btM3CFq7FgUUmdECST?si=gMIOtaZxSPKYzk5qCNMePQ

Kimi said I should set the song to veggietales, so I did. https://suno.com/s/P4XaZR6f1mphSrkP

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01:00 AI Mandate--OpenAI slipping

19:03 Dylan sells TSMC on AI better than sama

24:17 Doug teaches a lesson on railroad bubbles and ai

32:30 Sarah Friar fails up

35:17 Zohran-Trump

Suno slop: Moody's man came down from New York City https://suno.com/s/5DGCTgqam8dQMkZf

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Here's the full text of the peace plan: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia

Chapters

00:00 China bans pufferfish sperm

02:14 Peace Deal Drama

11:12 How the Trump Court explains everything

20:11 The Future of Russian Military Power

30:34 Lessons from Syria and chemical weapons

39:02 Where's Europe though

49:32 Lessons from Ukraine + William Manchester's absurd memoir

our broadway suno take on the plan: article 5: but different! https://suno.com/s/Dwx3udwSMVMRNxFV

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Our conversation today covers…

• What sets Z.ai apart from other Chinese models, including coding, role-playing capabilities, and translations of cryptic Chinese internet content,

• Why Chinese AI companies chase recognition from Silicon Valley thought leaders,

• The role of open source in the Chinese AI ecosystem,

• Fears of job loss and the prevalence of AI pessimism in China,

• How Z.ai trains its models, and what capabilities the company is targeting next.

Co-hosting today are Irene Zhang, long-time ChinaTalk analyst, as well as Nathan Lambert of the Interconnects Substack.

Follow Z.ai on X: https://x.com/Zai_org

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Chapters

16:24 The Future of Defense Technology and Startups

33:37 Cultural Shifts in Acquisition Practices

44:57 Taskers and Bureaucratic Inefficiencies

55:06 Vendor Lock and Software Solutions

Outtro music: more suno slop https://suno.com/s/FVtn90DmV8xuLcfp

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Our article on 'China makes AI girlfriends and America makes AI boyfriends' https://www.chinatalk.media/p/why-america-builds-ai-girlfriends

More on the Hefei model: https://hellochinatech.substack.com/p/china-hefei-model

05:53 ai

12:46 remorseful AI models

29:43 AI in porn

32:17 ai voice generation uncanny valley

34:55 good Chinese AI models and the hefei model

47:40 Vice Signaling

Outtro music: a suno song with kimi-generated generated lyrics called "A glitch in the gospel" https://suno.com/s/O8tIJ63c7t3NOEtO

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00:00 Colby's trainwreck of a hearing + right wing DC food

16:42 Countering Drones

35:32 How to train seriously

Guests include:

• Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/
• Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/
• Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC

Outtro music: more suno https://suno.com/s/hpZX8pdjirTsM5je

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03:01 IEPA Tariffs and Their Implications

17:27 Reciprocity and Trade Agreements

20:13 USMCA and Fortress North America

39:01 Decoupling from China: A Strategic Perspective

43:41 Trump's Economic Approach to China

47:48 The Chips Debate: National Security and Economic Interests

01:05:24 Reflections on Political Discourse and Legal Arguments

01:16:17 a ridiculous suno song

We discuss Oren's 'Grand Strategy of Reciprocity' https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/grand-strategy-reciprocity and 'Stop Selling the Rope' essays https://americancompass.org/stop-selling-the-rope/

Outtro music: Suno does Hamilton for this case https://suno.com/s/xPRkTjq5KQ4MPXLb

Peter's amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-1287/380641/20251024173045050_24-1287%2025-150%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf

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Chapters

02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling

05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did?

08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations

24:12 Blockades

28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology

43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections

44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights

Outtro music: suno' s version of bad bunny singing about antietam. I promise I won't do this for every episode outtro until the AI gets better.

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We discuss…

• Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
• Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
• The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
• Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
• How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
• Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.

Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (⁠https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f⁠)

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Chapters:

00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama

07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style

24:27 National Defense and International Relations

40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability

48:33 Implications of a Minority Government

01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump

Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust

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We discuss…

• Whether Ukraine represents a revolution in military affairs and what lessons the war holds for other theaters
• Why roughly 80% of casualties in Ukraine are caused by UAVs, and the symbiotic relationship between artillery and drones,
• The limits of FPVs and UAVs, tactics to counter UAV attacks, and the role of unmanned ground vehicles,
• Institutional friction within the Ukrainian forces,
• How Chinese components and commercial drones from DJI are shaping the battlefield.
• Drone incidents over Europe, burden sharing, and the US policy climate.

Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f)

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00:00 Venezuela

16:08 Shutdown Effects on Military Operations

34:45 The PE Army Takeover + Datacenters

46:32 Submarine Detection and Naval Strategy

48:44 Sledge

Outtro Music: Botaste la Bola, Un Solo Pueblo

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• How Xi’s mafioso-style “decapitation strategy” has kept the PLA in line and why he’s purged more generals than Mao.

• Cognitive decline and how end-of-life thinking might be shaping Xi’s succession plans and Taiwan strategy.

• Tariffs, rare earths, and China’s appetite for pain vs. America’s.

• Beijing’s parochialism and its limits in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

• What intelligence work on China actually looks like and whether or not Xi’s era is duller than previous generations.

Plus: who might succeed Xi, comparing the Politburo Standing Committee to a frat house, and why chips and TSMC matter much less in Xi’s Taiwan calculus than most think.

Outtro Music:

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The book that Mike recommended is free to download online! https://history.army.mil/portals/143/Images/Publications/catalog/30-4.pdf

Outtro Music: The Shirelles, Soldier Boy

00:00 Gaza and the Middle East Peace Process

06:26 US-Latin American Policy and Military Engagement

10:38 AI and Nuclear Weapons: A Seductive Analogy

17:47 Nuclear Energy vs. AI: Lessons in Governance

20:02 The Future of AI in Military Operations

31:46 Transforming Military Lessons with AI

37:38 Operational Surprise and Historical Context

45:55 Social Acceptability of Military Technologies

57:59 Ethics and Accuracy in AI Warfare

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Today, our conversation covers…

• Why the US needs to maintain an advantage in the race for AI development against China,

• Whether the US’s AI industry is prepared for future competition from China,

• The lawyers vs. engineers debate, and what the US needs to build AI supply chains,

• How government and industry can work together to across the AI development process.

Outro music: Stephen Wilson Jr. - Stand By Me (Live at The Print Shop) (YouTube Link)

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We discuss:

• Why the U.S remains dangerously vulnerable to low-cost drone attacks and what it would take to get serious about defending the homeland,

• How bureaucratic logjams and budget dysfunction stall America’s adoption of counter-drone and other critical defenses,

• What the Ukraine war reveals about the future of warfare and what the US has yet to learn from it,

• Why confidence in American technological superiority is misplaced, and why state-of-the-art weapons may not guarantee a quick or decisive war,

• How humans will make military decisions in the age of AI.

Outro music: Kay Kyser - Praise The Lord And Pass The Ammunition (YouTube Link)

Gracie Fields - Thing-Ummy-Bob (That's Going To Win The War) (YouTube Link)

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Outtro Music: Paul Simon, Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAb2Mu0CRk4

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Today, our conversation covers:

• Huawei vs Nvidia, and whether China can compete with US AI chip production,

• Signs that chip export controls are working,

• Why Jensen is full of it when he says China is “nanoseconds behind”

• What sets AI chips apart from other industries China has indigenized,

• How the US has escalation dominance in a trade war with China, and the significance of BIS’s 50% rule,

• Chris’s advice for young professionals, including why they should still consider working in government.

  
  

  Outtro Music: Abao Uduli https://open.spotify.com/track/176BwQLW0IGc2mhkkMe0yH

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Outtro speech: George C. Scott's rendition of Patton's speech

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Outtro Music: Otis Redding, Something is Worrying Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ughAT80R8

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Outtro Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujC4p7mf0XE&ab_channel=Release-Topic

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Outtro Music: Boys of the Old Brigade, Wolf Tones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoQBXgbVVT4&ab_channel=rebelsongs

Book: https://www.rutgersuniversitypress.org/child-soldiers-in-the-western-imagination/9780813563701/

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In today’s conversation, we discuss…

• Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing,
• Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making,
• The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders,
• How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects,
• Nate’s hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that compares with real-world prospects for creating political change over the long term.

Outro Music: 動物園釘子戶 (Zoo Gazer) - 大大大大大象 (YouTube Link)

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Daleep Singh, former Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, now with PGIN; Arnab Datta, currently at Employ America and IFP; and Peter Harrell, former Biden official and host of the excellent new Security Economics podcast.

Today, our conversation covers:

• Why critical mineral markets are broken,

• How China achieved rare earth dominance,

• The history of rare earth mining and refinement in the US,

• What the MP Materials deal does, and whether it can succeed,

• The key ingredients for successful industrial policy, with case studies including a Strategic Resilience Reserve, a US sovereign wealth fund, and support for Intel.

Outro music: Ornaments Of Gold - Siouxsie And The Banshees (YouTube Link)

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Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk18bFIgOS4&ab_channel=ThereIRuinedIt

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In our conversation today, we discuss…

• What makes a robot a robot, and what makes robotics so difficult,
• The promise of robotic foundation models and strategies to overcome the data bottleneck,
• Why full labor replacement is far less likely than human-robot synergy,
• China’s top players in the robotic industry, and what sets them apart from American companies and research institutions,
• How robots will impact manufacturing, and how quickly we can expect to see robotics take off.

O*NET’s ontology of labor: http://onetcenter.org/database.html

ChinaTalk's Unitree coverage: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/unitree-ceo-on-chinas-robot-revolution

Robotics reading recommendations: Chris Paxton, Ted Xiao, C Zhang, and The Humanoid Hub on X. You can also check out the General Robots and Learning and Control Substacks, Vincent Vanhoucke on Medium, and IEEE’s robotics coverage.

Today’s podcast is brought to you by 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit that helps people find fulfilling careers that do good. 80,000 Hours — named for the average length of a career — has been doing in-depth research on AI issues for over a decade, producing reports on how the US and China can manage existential risk, scenarios for potential AI catastrophe, and examining the concrete steps you can take to help ensure AI development goes well.

Their research suggests that working to reduce risks from advanced AI could be one of the most impactful ways to make a positive difference in the world.

They provide free resources to help you contribute, including:

• Detailed career reviews for paths like AI safety technical research, AI governance, information security, and AI hardware,
• A job board with hundreds of high-impact opportunities,
• A podcast featuring deep conversations with experts like Carl Shulman, Ajeya Cotra, and Tom Davidson,
• Free, one-on-one career advising to help you find your best fit.

To learn more and access their research-backed career guides, visit 80000hours.org/ChinaTalk.

To read their report about AI coordination between the US and China, visit http://80000hours.org/chinatalkcoord.

Outro music: Daft Punk - Motherboard (⁠YouTube Link⁠)

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Outtro music: Chalte Chalte Title Song | Abhijeet, Alka Yagnik | Shah Rukh Khan, Rani Mukherjee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkOakcMqJ-8&ab_channel=T-SeriesBollywoodClassics

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Like and subscribe if you're just here for our Civil War coverage.

Guests include:

• Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/
• Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/
• Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC

Outtro Music: After going through twenty different John Brown's Body recordings this one was my favorite, an acapela rendition by Deborah Anne Goss https://open.spotify.com/track/20id0r7ZlSIFxKifoEFlfC?si=0d2a59f7dfe142fa

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Ian’s forthcoming book, The Freshwater War, will explore the naval campaign the US fought against Britain on the Great Lakes between 1812 and 1815.

Today our conversation covers….

• How Ian innovates when writing historical narratives,
• Whether Allied victory was predetermined after the US entered the war,
• Why the Kamikaze were born out of resource scarcity, and whether Japanese military tactics were suicidal as well,
• How foreign wars temporarily stabilized Japan’s revolutionary domestic politics,
• How American military leadership played the media and politics to become national heroes,
• Lessons from 1945 for a potential Taiwan invasion.

Cohosting is Chris Miller, author of Chip War. Thanks to the US-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this podcast.

Outro music: The Mills Brothers - Till Then (YouTube link)

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I don't buy Silicon Shield.

Lessons from Waymo on about the future of warfare.

Intertextual analysis of the Mick Ryan interview.

Fed Supernova, which is a terrible name for a conference, and counterintelligence.

Has John Bolton taken enough Ls already? I guess not.

Guests include:

• Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/
• Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/
• Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC

Outtro Music: Bach, Chris Thile, Partita 1 in B Minor 1002: VI. Double https://open.spotify.com/track/780bh3MspPK19jVDD7EIKu?si=4809af67eda34c38

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In today’s conversation, we discuss…

• Steve’s investigative process, including how he found people in mainland China willing to speak on the record about black market GPUs,
• The magnitude of smuggling, weaknesses in enforcement, and crudeness of US restrictions,
• China’s role in manufacturing the GPUs they aren’t allowed to buy,
• How Gamers Nexus monetizes content,
• What it takes to stand up to Nvidia as an independent journalist.

Check out ChinaTalk's previous work on the history of Nvidia here.

As of August 21st, YouTube has removed the full documentary. Gamers Nexus is working on getting the video back on YouTube, but you can watch it here in the meantime.

Outro music: Jim and Jesse - Ballad of Thunder Road (YouTube Link)

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In today’s conversation, we discuss…

• Lessons from the history of warfare, and how to apply them to modern conflict,
• Why superweapons don’t win wars, and how the human dimension of war will shape military applications of AI,
• Why economic integration alone cannot prevent a US-China war,
• The role of deception and the limits of battlefield surveillance, with case studies in Ukraine and Afghanistan,
• Mick’s four filters for applying lessons from Ukraine to a Taiwan contingency, and the underappreciated role of Taiwanese public opinion in shaping CCP goals.

Thanks to the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for sponsoring this podcast.

Outro music: Elvis Presley — Down by the Riverside (YouTube Link)

Reading recommendations:

Paul Kennedy — The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War

Norman F. Dixon — On the Psychology of Military Incompetence 

Aimée Fox — Learning to Fight: Military Innovation and Change in the British Army, 1914–1918 

Williamson Murray & Allan R. Millett — Military Innovation in the Interwar Period and Military Effectiveness trilogy 

Trent Hone — Learning War: The Evolution of Fighting Doctrine in the U.S. Navy, 1898–1945 

Brent L. Sterling — Other People’s Wars: The U.S. Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts (2021)

Dima Adamsky — The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel (2010)

Meir Finkel — On Flexibility: Recovery from Technological and Doctrinal Surprise on the Battlefield and Military Agility: Ensuring Rapid and Effective Transition from Peace to War

Andrew Krepinevich —  The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers

R.V. Jones —  The Wizard War: British Scientific Intelligence 1939-1945

Francis Hoffman — Mars Adapting: Military Change During War

You can find more syllabi on Mick Ryan's Substack (here and here)

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• What are the tradeoffs involved in selling
• Why China is talking like they don't even want the H20s
• Why selling HBM and semiconductor manufacturing equipment might be an even bigger deal than Nvidia chips

Check out the Horizon Fellowship to work in DC on emerging tech policy issues like AI chip export controls! https://horizonpublicservice.org/applications-open-for-2026-horizon-fellowship-cohort/

Outtro Music: It's a Shame, The Spinners, 1970

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRQQudHLi0A&ab_channel=TheSpinners-Topic

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Guests include:

• Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/
• Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/
• Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC

Outtro Music: Last Chance, Mary Cox https://open.spotify.com/track/3LAOSqy3DoiA1OiPxC9yMe?si=da00b16696f042f8

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We discuss…

• The central enigma of the Soviet dissident movement — their boldness in the face of hopeless odds,
• How cybernetics, Wittgenstein, and one absent-minded professor shaped the intellectual backbone of post-Stalinist dissent,
• Why the Soviet Union was such fertile ground for dark humor, and why humor played a vital role for Soviet resistance movements,
• How the architect of Stalin's show trials laid the groundwork for, ironically, a more professional legal system known as “socialist legality,”
• Similarities and differences between post-Stalinist and post-Maoist systems in dealing with opposition,
• Plus: Why Brezhnev read The Baltimore Sun, how onion-skin paper became a tool of rebellion, and why China’s leaders study the Soviet collapse more seriously than anyone else.

Today's episode is sponsored by Alaya Tea, cofounded by ChinaTalk listener Smita Satiani. Alaya Tea ships Indian teas straight from the source, and their products are 100% plastic-free. My favorite is their Assam black tea, which I've been using to make a fantastic milk tea. Go to ⁠alayatea.co⁠ and use the code CHINATALKTEA for free shipping.

Outro music: Владимир Высоцкий - Охота на волков (YouTube Link)

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To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law.

We discuss…

• Why some issues — like Romanian elections, the NYC mayoral race, or Zelenskyy’s outfit choices — can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume,
• Systematic biases in prediction markets, including why they overestimate the likelihood of a Taiwan contingency,
• What happens to prediction markets in the absence of insider trading regulations,
• Why prediction markets are still a solo endeavor, and what a profit-maximizing team of traders would look like,
• Bonus: How betting markets backfired on Romanian nationalists, what AI can teach you about betting, and other insights on winning from one of Domer’s contemporaries.

Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link)

This episode is brought to you by ElevenLabs. I’ve been on the hunt for years for the perfect reader app that puts AI audio at the center of its design. Over the past few months, the ElevenReader app has earned a spot on my iPhone's home screen and now gets about 30 minutes of use every day. I plow through articles using Eleven Reader’s beautiful voices and love having Richard Feynman read me AI news stories — as well as, you know, Matilda every once in a while, too.

I’m also a power user of its bookmark feature, which the ElevenReader team added after I requested it on Twitter. ChinaTalk’s newsletter content even comes preloaded in the feed.

Check out the ElevenReader app if you’re looking for the best mobile reader on the market. Oh, and by the way — if you ever need to transcribe anything, ElevenLabs’  Scribe model has transformed our workflow for getting transcripts out to you on the newsletter. It’s crossed the threshold from “95% good” to “99.5% amazing,” saving our production team hours every week. Check it out the next time you need something transcribed.

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• How Abe's assassination led to the LDP's three years of struggles
• What the latest results in the upper house election tell us about domestic Japanese politics
• What's the deal with big winners like Kōmeitō and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP)
• How domestic dynamics tie into US-Japan and China-Japan relations

Outtro Music: The Communist Party's 2025 Gender song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V59qOPTe62g&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%B1%E7%94%A3%E5%85%9A

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Against the backdrop of the Great Leap Forward, the Sino-Soviet split, the Cultural Revolution, and reform and opening up, we discuss…

• The moral dilemmas of a mid-level party cadre,

• What it’s like to be purged, and why the party prescribes self-criticism as therapy,

• “Frenemies” in the CCP, Deng Xiaoping’s autocratic side, and the unsung heros of the reform period,

• How Xi Zhongxun instilled party loyalty and other values in his son,

• Xi Zhongxun’s return from exile and his complicated relationship with reform,

• How Chinese leaders think about redemption, guilt, and survival,

• And a bonus: Why the PRC-produced biopic of Xi Zhongxun is so disappointing — and why his life deserves the Star Wars treatment.

Outro music: Teresa Teng - 小城故事 (YouTube Link)

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To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi, a longtime observer of US-Japan relations and former advisor to the late Shinzo Abe.

We discuss…

• Why 1970s trade competition is still impacting US-Japan relations today, and how Japan could create “Wow factor” when dealing with Donald Trump,

• How Shinzo Abe used golf, dinner parties, and history lessons to cultivate a close personal friendship with Trump,

• The roots of Japanese resolve in dealing with PRC aggression,

• The emergence of Russian disinformation surrounding the Japanese election,

• The political economy of the Japanese Self-Defence Force, and how Abe managed the controversy surrounding his reinterpretation of Article 9.

Co-hosting today is Charles Litchfield of the Atlantic Council. Thanks to the US-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this episode.

Outro music: Shinji Tanimura - Left Alone (YouTube Link)

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This biography gives me a feel for Chinese politics that I honestly thought I’d never have. It does an incredible job of digging deep to shed light on some of the most consequential moments in CCP history, as well as conveying what it was like to live as a senior official under Mao and Deng. Reading it was a powerful experience at both an intellectual and human level.

We get memorable vignettes, like 15-year-old Xi Zhongxun attempting to assassinate a teacher, or General Peng Dehuai using his shoe to silence Xi Zhongxun’s snoring in their shared bunk.

In this interview, we discuss:

• What we can learn about authoritarianism, the CCP, and China’s future from studying Xi’s father,

• Torigian’s methodology for uncovering hidden Party history,

• How the Party became an existential source of meaning, and how it weaponized suffering to paradoxically deepen political loyalty,

• The arc of Xi Zhongxun’s life — from a young revolutionary to key advocate of reform — and his role during Tiananmen,

• The interplay of family, love, and career under the all-encompassing shadow of the Party,

• The role of “Surrogate fathers” and patronage in navigating political ascent,

• How literature shaped China’s early revolutionaries, and even impacted the Party as we know it today.

Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, former ChinaTalk intern.

Outro music: The Temptations - Papa Was A Rolling Stone (YouTube Link)

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Outtro music: Todd Terje, Preben Goes to Acapulco https://open.spotify.com/track/70jWHwvymR4x1PUXXrUD1S

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Tracklist:

00:00 ‘Rhyme’ – Rubey Hu

01:02 ‘The Last of the Mohicans’ – SMZB 生命之饼

04:46 ‘秋茄子之味’ – 红发少年杀人事件

09:04 ‘The Wanderer of Renfengli 仁丰里的闲逛者‘ – DaYe 大叶

12:08 ‘back to the pond 1’ – Jian Cui

15:57 ‘Chapter II’ (excerpt) – Chen Mulian et al for xuán yīn

21:13 ‘月光爱人 De Luna Amour’ – 黑木 Heimu

27:27 ‘Ⱪorⱪetteng ⱪobeze / The Kobyz of Korkut 霍尔赫特的库布孜‘ (excerpt) – Mamer 马木尔

35:38 ‘སྒྲོལ་མའི་བསྟོད་པ་། Praise to Tara 度母赞’ – Kalzang Samdrub

37:08 ‘我不知不觉不伦不类’ – 小老虎 J-Fever

39:56 ‘1911 4th Mov. (live) 一九一一 第四回’ (excerpt) – Zhaoze 沼泽

46:55 ‘本该走神的(Should've Been Lost)‘ – 张醒婵 Nono

49:28 ‘失乐园’ – DJ小女孩 DJ Gurl

Some of these tracks are available on YouTube! We've aggregated those links on the ChinaTalk Substack.

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For the second anniversary of the Wagner uprising, ChinaTalk interviewed London-based historian Kamil Galeev, who was also a classmate of Jordan’s at Peking University.

We discuss…

• Why the Wagner Group rebelled in 2023, and why the coup attempt ultimately failed,

• How Wagner shifted the Kremlin’s assessment of internal political challengers,

• Similarities between post-Soviet doomerism and the American right,

• Historical examples of foreign policy inflienced by a victimhood mentality,

• Barriers to Chinese hegemony.

Outro Music: Султан Лагучев - Любовь беда (YouTube Link)

Today’s post is brought to you by 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit that helps people find fulfilling careers that do good. 80,000 Hours — named for the average length of a career — has been doing in-depth research on AI issues for over a decade, producing reports on how the US and China can manage existential risk, scenarios for potential AI catastrophe, and examining the concrete steps you can take to help ensure AI development goes well.

Their research suggests that working to reduce risks from advanced AI could be one of the most impactful ways to make a positive difference in the world.

They provide free resources to help you contribute, including:

• Detailed career reviews for paths like AI safety technical research, AI governance, information security, and AI hardware,

• A job board with hundreds of high-impact opportunities,

• A podcast featuring deep conversations with experts like Carl Shulman, Ajeya Cotra, and Tom Davidson,

• Free, one-on-one career advising to help you find your best fit.

To learn more and access their research-backed career guides, visit 80000hours.org/ChinaTalk.

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Guests include:

• Peter Harrell, former Biden official who hosts the Security Economics podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/security-economics/id1794022711)
• Matt Klein of the https://theovershoot.co/ substack
• Kevin Xu of the https://interconnect.substack.com/ subsctack

Outtro music: Emitt Rhodes, Textile Factory, 1970 https://open.spotify.com/track/1JO2jo0Cyg75mmCFlSW2bB?si=1706c809e80b4bd4

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Outtro Music (sounded like a let's get dylan a girlfriend prayer to me?) Finding Her, Kushagra, Bharath, Saaheal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZtSnQBsBW0

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Cohosting today is Kyle Chan of the High Capacity Substack.

Today, our conversation covers:

• Why Apple moved production to China in the 1990s, and why it struggles to leave,
• How Apple’s obsession with perfection catalyzed China’s industrial upgrading,
• The political side of production in China, including how Apple’s relationship with the Chinese authorities has evolved over time,
• The rise of Foxconn and other partners in Apple’s network,
• Fun anecdotes about Apple’s management style, including the “Divorce Avoidance Program.”

Read ChinaTalk's article China's AR glasses market here.

Outro music: Apple Blossom — The White Stripes (YouTube Link)

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We discuss…

• The life of Huawei’s founder, Ren Zhengfei, who rose from Cultural Revolution disgrace to become one of China’s richest businessmen,

• How Ren built Huawei, and what makes their corporate culture unique,

• Huawei’s strategic entry into developing and high-risk markets like Libya, Iraq, and Iran, and whether the controversial deal with the UK is a threat to national security,

• How Huawei outcompeted Chinese state-owned telecom companies and eventually achieved national champion status,

• How Ren’s personal interest in foreign art, music, and architecture advances Huawei’s market share.

Co-hosting today is Kyle Chan, a postdoc at Princeton and author of the High Capacity Substack.

Outro music: Back Fire - Annabel Yao (YouTube Link)

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We discuss…

• How Renaissance ⁠catalyzed⁠ over $200 million in philanthropic funding in its first year,

• The goals of the organization and how it has responded to Trump’s S&T funding cuts,

• What sets Renaissance apart from traditional philanthropic organizations, and lessons for China-focused research foundations,

• AI applications in education, from tutoring to dyslexia screening,

• Donor psychology, “portfolio regret,” and how to build trust within a philanthropic network.

Thanks to ElevenLabs for sponsoring this episode. Check out the ElevenReader text-to-speech app here.

Outro music: Mercy, Mercy, Mercy - Cannonball Adderley (YouTube Link)

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• Elon, Trump and the tech right
• The future of the R&D base and importance of immigrants
• Why short videos aren't terrible after all?
• Philanthropy and books

Read the social history of the machine gun!

Outtro Music: Youba by The Sway Machinery and Khaira Arby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYNUm4UfoAs

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• Jordan tries to save the NSF and immigrant visas with an AI researcher letter
• Our quarterly AI mandate of heaven update (there's been alot of movement!)
• Dylan makes bad slop jokes
• The Ezra Klein/Dylan Patel beef begins
• We recommend the amazing book Mitsui: Three Centuries of Japanese Business

Outtro music: באמפרים” (pronounced Bam-pe-rim, roughly “Bumpers”) by the Israeli hip-hop duo Ness & Stilla, 2024 https://open.spotify.com/track/3FihyZ7YA7vrNiSUfWww10?si=9817a9122faf4b08

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Outtro Music: FaceTime, Karencici, 2018. https://open.spotify.com/track/2PNDZp0ultOJrQL4AVENPO?si=46cdf72cdffb40a3

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To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed the legendary sinologist Orville Schell, who visited China during the Cultural Revolution and is currently at the Asia Society.

We discuss…

• Mao Zedong’s psychology and political style,

• Similarities and differences between Mao and Trump,

• How Mao-era traumas reverberate in modern China, including how the Cultural Revolution has influenced the Xi family,

• How Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping survived the Cultural Revolution, and which of their tactics could be useful in modern America,

• What civil society can do to defend democracy over the next four years.

Co-hosting is Alexander Boyd, associate editor at China Books Review and former ChinaTalk intern.

• Read Orville's article, "Trump's Cultural Revolution," here.
• Read the Asia Society piece on religion and political power here.
• Orville's crazy Asia Society event, From Pontius Pilate to Chairman Mao: Religion and Politics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opw9vqpPBqQ&ab_channel=AsiaSociety

Book recommendations:

• Joseph Torigian - The Party's Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping
• Perry Link - The Anaconda in the Chandelier - ⁠excerpt⁠ from ChinaFile
• William Shirer - The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich
• Victor Klemperer - I Will Bear Witness: A Diary of the Nazi Years, 1933-1941

Outro music:

Bach's Partita No. 1 for Solo Violin in B Minor, BWV 1002: VIII. Double, Gidon Kremer

https://open.spotify.com/track/3x1Rdpgy6QGSlW9tItHYdm?si=20fa2051dc5d4f91

Aria from J.S. Bach Cantata 'Schwingt freudig euch empor'

https://open.spotify.com/track/5pIy4Gll1YywqKX25EbbOb?si=520327db35f54201

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We discuss…

• The decline of bipartisanship and how to bring expertise back to Capitol Hill,

• The case for a new “Department of Competitiveness” 

• Industry’s role in policymaking and what it took to get semiconductor manufacturers on board with the CHIPS Act,

• Why Silicon Valley suddenly became interested in politics,

• How to optimize industrial policy in a stick-focused political environment.

Outro music: Moon River, Frank Ocean 2018 (YouTube Link)

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, who need no introduction, as well as Dan Wang, who has written beautiful annual letters and is back in the US as a research fellow at Kotkin’s Hoover History Lab. He has an excellent book called Breakneck coming out this August, but we’re saving that show for a little later this year.

Today, our conversation covers…

• The use of China as a rhetorical device in US domestic discourse,

• Oversimplified aspects of Chinese development, and why the bipartisan consensus surrounding Beijing might fail to produce a coherent strategy,

• The abundance agenda and technocratic vs prophetic strategies for policy change,

• How to conceptualize political actors complexly, including unions, corporations, and environmental groups,

• The value of podcasting and strategies for positively impacting the modern media environment.

  Outtro Music: Recomposed by Max Richter, I went with a deep cut Autumn 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUEeqvp_BrQ

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To explore these questions, we're joined by Divyansh Kaushik and Alex Rubin, who both work at Beacon Global Strategies. Divyansh holds an AI PhD from Carnegie Mellon, and Alex spent the past decade at the CIA focusing on China and emerging technologies.

We discuss…

• The Historical origins of the US R&D model, and the division of labor between universities, government, and industry,

• How budget cuts will impact the NSF, NIH, NIST, and DoD basic research,

• Why and how China attempts to emulate US research institutions,

• What a leaked wargame exercise from Guangdong province can tell us about China’s grand strategy,

• How institutions like ChinaTalk can complement the IC with fresh, independent research.

Outro music: The Elements - Tom Lehrer (YouTube Link)

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Co-hosting today is Michael Horowitz, another Penn professor who served in Biden’s Department of Defense.

We discuss…

• How to use open source PLA documents to conduct deep research,

• The evolution of Chinese defense strategy, including the impact of the third Taiwan Strait crisis,

• Nuclear modernization and China’s “no first use” policy,

• How the PLA makes decisions, including why they chose to develop cyber capabilities, anti-satellite weapons, and hypersonic missiles over proposed alternatives.

  
  

  Outtro Music: Beauty by Gui Bian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTlfSOCwYJ8

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I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It’s currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden’s National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

We get into…

• The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence,

• The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates,

• Why France proliferated despite US objections,

• How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia,

• China’s nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world.

Here's the RAND paper cited: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GUMnuxWoapmEYCw3g3NMUHxzZ6hVwWPi/view?usp=sharing

Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link)

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See Rush's Foreign Affairs article with Kurt Campbell here: https://archive.is/ZSTKP

Some Japanese outtro music to give the allies some love:

Karenai by Bonbero: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJcIOMsOaU&ab_channel=Bonbero

What's Popping by JP THE WAVY and friends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LOXU_hBNo&ab_channel=JPTHEWAVY

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Bill lays out the four clashing instincts driving policy in MAGA 2.0: revenge for decades of perceived slights, a bargaining bluff to coerce concessions, a fast‑cash revenue grab, and a fantasy of instant on‑shore fab construction.

Jay walks through the on‑the‑ground fallout: chip designers worrying about losing China sales, GPU‑specific duties warping supply chains, and a loophole that lets boards assembled in Mexico skate by.

We explore how blanket tariffs could accelerate China’s ascent in analog and trailing‑edge chips, undermine Biden‑era “ally‑first” export‑control diplomacy, and leave Commerce’s BIS badly under‑resourced to enforce the rules.

We also get into whether allies will sign up for Washington’s crusade after being slapped themselves, and whether Nvidia, Intel, and Tesla are “too important to punish.”

Outtro Music: Well Get It, Tommy Dorsey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgiHzCiB5Aw

Bible‑Verse Sign‑off “Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.” — Proverbs 15:22

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• Huawei is giving NVIDIA a run for their money
• What USG needs to do about it
• What smart semiconductor tariff policy would look like
• o3

Outtro Music, a little texas country for you all:

Ernest Tubb, Walking the Floor Over You https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQIRRReZIls

Hank Thompson, Wild Side of Life https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPvARPfquPc

And a completely wild post-WWII song I did not feel comfortable putting on the feed but worth a listen for the wtf factor: Ernest Tubb, Filipino Baby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WXnoCyKGw8&pp=0gcJCdgAo7VqN5tD

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“Tony Stark” is the author of Breaking Beijing, a Substack examining the military dimensions of US-China competition. Tony’s Substack goes deep on subjects you didn’t know you needed to understand, like Arctic policy, and takes a refreshing step back to look at great power competition holistically. Tony is also the author of Ex Supra, a sci-fi thriller about a near-future US-China war.

Today, we discuss…

• What it will take to win the 21st century, and what America needs to prioritize in the short, medium, and long term,
• Why investing in education, basic science research, and foreign aid pay dividends in military readiness,
• Why Washington is short on coherent China strategy,
• Taiwan’s impact on global nonproliferation efforts,
• How AI could change warfare, even if AGI can’t be considered a “wonder weapon.”

Outro music: Cmon - Fred Again (YouTube link)

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Dylan has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to macro or politics.

We fail to arrive at the 2011 Obama-Boehner deal.

I had a fever during the recording so don't really talk.

1930s-energy outtro music:

Victoria Spivey, Detroit Moan, 1936 https://open.spotify.com/track/7L3GgSuguDJXi1msw6Pe7W?si=ab99d3eea65647eb

Judy Garland, Over the Rainbow, 1938 https://open.spotify.com/track/3wAIcORchxdSkWv6v5AkaU?si=b6bfe7a8249147bb

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Outtro Music: Madeleine Chartrand - Tout Doucement, 1975 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e856a_xZ1TI&ab_channel=Vinyle33-45RPM

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Tanner's report: https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/03/obscurity-by-design/

Outtro Music: Nobody but You Babe, Clarence Reid, 1969 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCT7w2t8cyY

01:23 Geopolitical Implications of Trump's Management Style

35:02 Economic Vision and Industrial Renaissance

52:28 Economic Liberalism and Trump World

52:42 Industrial Policy Camps in Trump Administration

56:30 Laura Loomer and Trump World Geopolitics

01:04:04 Historical Parallels and Red Experts Problem

01:20:00 Taiwan Policy and Cultural Wars

01:29:40 China Policy and Trump's Tactical Approach

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In today’s interview, we discuss…

• Khrushchev’s removal from power and the transition to the Brezhnev era,
• How the USSR and China managed their relationships with Vietnam,
• Sino-Soviet border conflicts, Brezhnev’s negative feelings toward China, and Nixon’s rapprochement,
• Watergate and the inability of China or the USSR to understand American politics
• Why the Soviets decided to invade Afghanistan,
• Reagan’s approach to negotiations and his relationship with Gorbachev,
• How to manage the containment paradox and unknown adversary motives when competing with China and Russia today.

Co-hosting today is Jon Sine of the Cogitations substack.

Outro music: ДДТ- Родина (DDT - Motherland) (YouTube Link)

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To discuss we have on today Dan Hendrycks. A CS PhD, Dan runs the Center for AI Safety and is an advisor at xAI and Scale AI.

Here's his superintelligence strategy: https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/

For some more direct lessons from the Cold War to today's US-China dynamics, check out the show I did with Hal Brands (https://www.chinatalk.media/p/cold-war-lessons-for-us-china-today)

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Here's the article rating the clouds that SemiAnalysis wrote: https://semianalysis.com/2025/03/26/the-gpu-cloud-clustermax-rating-system-how-to-rent-gpus/

Outtro Music: Some Malaysian UK garage: GADISKU lucidrari, FITTO, Gard, 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVewUwqu1dM

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We get amazing vignettes like Liu Shaoqi making fun of the Americans for eating ice cream in trenches, Khrushchev pinning red stars on Eisenhower’s grandkids, and Brezhnev and Andropov offering to dig up dirt on senators to help save Nixon from Watergate.

Sergey earns your trust in this book, acknowledging what we can and can’t know. He leaves you with a new lens to understand the Cold War and the new US-China rivalry — namely, the overwhelming preoccupation with global prestige by Cold War leaders.

In this interview, we discuss…

• Why legitimacy matters in international politics,
• Stalin’s colonial ambitions and Truman’s strategy of containment,
• Sino-Soviet relations during the Stalin era and beyond,
• The history of nuclear blackmail, starting with the 1956 Suez crisis,
• Why Khrushchev couldn’t save the Soviet economy.

Co-hosting today is Jon Sine of the Cogitations substack.

Outro music: Виталий Марков "Главное, ребята, сердцем не стареть" (YouTube Link)

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We get into

• What Manus is and isn't
• What Manus tells us about the broader AI ecosystem's ability to produce products we actually want to use
• The political economy and liability issues that AI agents will engender

More ChinaTalk coverage: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/manus-chinas-latest-ai-sensation

Outtro Music:

La Marelu "Mala" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAB5rx8mqjM&ab_channel=LaMarelu-Topic

Alaska y Dinarama "A Quién Le Importa" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uQhdDtdXg0&ab_channel=YouMoreTv-Espect%C3%A1culo

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Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor at The Economist) and Michael Horowitz (Biden's Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities, now back at Penn) come on the show to discuss:

• Ukraine's Chances on the Battlefield: We revisit J.D. Vance's tweet war with Shashank where he claims Ukraine is fated to lose, highlighting how war is nonlinear and dependent on political cohesion, economic strength, and defense industrial capacity beyond just manpower.
• Trump's Pivot to Putin: We try to think through what Trump is doing with Ukraine and Russia at the strategic level and what the long term and second order consequences are.
• AI and the Future of Warfare: We discuss of how AGI would transform warfare, with Horowitz suggesting progress will be incremental rather than revolutionary, emphasizing government adoption challenges over 0 to 1 technical breakthroughs.
• "Precise Mass" in Combat: Ukrainian forces have demonstrated how AI-guided drones achieving 80%+ hit rates have changed battlefield dynamics, introducing the concept of "precise mass" - lower-cost precision systems deployed at scale across domains including air, land, and sea. See Mike's Foreign Affairs piece on the topic here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz
• Defense Innovation Challenges: Western bureaucratic processes severely impede military innovation, with Horowitz noting that reprogramming just 0.05% of the defense budget required over 40 congressional briefings, contrasting with Ukraine's wartime innovation speed and calling for acquisition reform.

Recommended Books:

• Under the Nuclear Shadow by Fiona Cunningham
• Army of None by Paul Scharre
• Billion Dollar Spy by David Hoffman

Outtro Music:

Santigold, You'll Find a Way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IodbPh7RkBw

Vampire Weekend, Walcott: https://open.spotify.com/track/0BZY839qKXibapu4S0GYE2?si=7ecc773a95ee4d62

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To find out, we interviewed Eddie Fishman, a former civil servant at the Department of State and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia. His new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, is a gripping history of the past 20 years of American sanctions policy.

In this show, we’ll talk about…

• The evolution of U.S. sanctions policy, from Iraq and Cuba to Iran and Russia,
• How Reagan’s deal with the Saudis turned the dollar into an economic chokepoint,
• The incredible success of sanctions against Iran, and how that playbook could have been used to punish Russia,
• Historical lessons in enforcement that are relevant for export controls on China today,
• The role of great civil servants like Stuart Levey, Daleep Singh, Victoria Nuland, and Matt Pottinger in building state power,
• Institutional challenges for economic warfare and the consequences of failure to reform,
• Strategies for writing groundbreaking books about modern history.

Outro music: 1970s Iranian Psychadelic Rock, Gole Yakhe by Kourosh Yaghmaei https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmhqVPXOKo4

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Today’s interview begins with one shocking truth — while medieval Europe suffered under near-constant war, East Asia’s Middle Ages were defined by great power peace.

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor David C. Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at USC and co-author of Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations.

We discuss…

• How East Asian nations managed to peacefully coexist for centuries,
• Why lessons from European history don’t always apply in non-European contexts,
• Why wars begin and how they can be avoided,
• How to interpret outbreaks of violence in Asia — including conflicts with the Mongols, China’s meddling in Vietnam, and Japan’s early attempts at empire,
• State behaviors that cannot be explained by power transition theory alone,
• Whether the Thucydides trap makes U.S.-China war inevitable,
• Old school methods for managing cross-strait relations.

Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä of the On Humans podcast.

Outro music: 荒城の月 "The Moon over the Ruined Castle" by 滝廉太郎 Rentarō Taki (Youtube link)

Cover photo of a Song Dynasty axe-wielding god https://dragonsarmory.blogspot.com/2016/12/song-chinese-armor-in-religious.html

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• Whether an AI innovation race is inevitable between the US and China,
• How the US should update export controls in light of DeepSeek’s R1 release,
• DeepSeek’s willingness to generate information about bioweapons,
• Technical defenses against model distillation and AI espionage,
• How advanced AI could eventually impact democracy,
• Whether there is tension between export controls and the belief that AI will broadly increase human flourishing.

Dario's blogposts:

Machines of Loving Grace: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace

On DeepSeek and Export Controls: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls

Outro Music: Lykke Li, I Follow Rivers (Magician Remix) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS6wfWu0JvA&ab_channel=LykkeLi

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• What DeepSeek does and doesn't illustrate about Chinese innovation
• Tensions between open-source cosmopolitanism and nationalism built into DeepSeek and the broader Chinese tech community
• DeepSeek's organizational and talent management strategy, parallels to OpenAI, and what the fame will mean for the firm and Chinese AI policy
• What DeepSeek should and may mean for the future of export controls and broader US innovation policy

The JS Tan article referenced: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseeks-secret-to-success

Dario's first article on our happy AI future: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace

Dario's second article on why America needs to export control China: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls

Outtro Music: Dizkar, 愛縂時刻盛開 https://open.spotify.com/track/1rXneAS9Djts7fwRGHUeG5?si=b2b29714802948de

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Outtro music: The Departure, Max Richter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R5Ppb9wqjY

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To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Adam Mossoff, professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University.

We discuss…

• How the patent system has shaped American society since independence,
• The extent to which patent policy caused the great divergence between the West and China,
• Whether Elon’s misunderstanding of patents will become the dominant attitude of the second Trump administration,
• The Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) and other threats to the U.S. innovation ecosystem,
• How to reconcile China’s IP theft with its robust domestic patent law,
• What the U.S. can do to facilitate innovation while competing with China in emerging technology.

Outro Songs from the American Revolution:

Liberty Song (Arthur F. Schrader rendition), and the Tory retort, Come Shake Your Dull Noodles (Arthur F. Schrader rendition)

Thanks to the Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes.

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Outtro Music: Дили-дили (Dili-dili) Artist: Гюлли Чохели (Gyulli Chokheli), 1967

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We discuss…

• The goals of Silicon Valley's pro-Trump constituency, from deregulation, to tariffs, to China policy,
• Whether Elon is standing up for Taiwan behind closed doors,
• Whether Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Poland need their own nuclear weapons,
• How Taiwan could bargain for independence with China’s leaders post-Xi,
• National health insurance as a potential solution to China’s aggregate demand problem,
• A Georgist perspective on China’s real estate problem,
• Why China’s demographic issues are overstated, 
• Recommendations for Taiwan’s economic development.

To hear more of Noah's musings, check out Econ 102, a podcast by Turpentine.

Outtro music: Wifey by Dizzy Dizzo 蔡詩芸 (Youtube Link)

Cover art: 清 冷枚 梧桐双兔图

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Outtro music: 大雨 - deca joins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FFALDn1yGQ

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To discuss, we brought on RAND's Lennart Heim, Jimmy Goodrich, Chris Miller, and Dylan Patel.

Outtro Music: Afida Es & the Siglap Boys - jangan goda, Malaysia, 1967 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvXrdwKST1U&ab_channel=schutbart

hasnah haron & the spiritual 70's _ bintang pujaan, Malaysia 1977 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4cMsoLttNs&ab_channel=nostalgiahassny

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To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed R. Nicholas Burns, Biden’s Ambassador to China, whose diplomatic career spans 35 years and 8 countries.

We discuss…

• Kissinger’s experience negotiating with the CCP,
• Why China’s negotiating tactics are so different from those of the Soviet Union,
• How European allies are helping to push back against Chinese aggression,
• Great power responsibilities, and whether Chinese leaders truly appreciate the reputational costs of helping the Russians and the Houthis,
• Biden’s victories with new partners in the Pacific,
• How diplomats express consequences and draw red lines during international crises,
• Areas of mutual interest where the U.S. and China can still engage productively,
• The importance of specialists in the Foreign Service. 

Outro music: 

Óró Mo Bháidín - Mary O’Hara

Auld Lang Syne - Rendition by The Irish Rovers, originally written by Robert Burns

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We get into…

• Pro-immigrant attitudes among Trump’s allies in Silicon Valley
• Creative political maneuvering that could make high-skill immigration reform a reality
• Whether Vivek is right about American culture aspiring to normalcy
• Other areas where Elon and the tech right might spend their political influence 
• How nativist backlash could influence Trump’s agenda
• Why India has yet to produce an influential, home-grown AI lab

Special thanks to Mani Subramani, Gauri Subramani, and our anonymous contributor who grew up in China for sharing their reflections on immigrant parenting. 

Outro song: Kishore Kumar, Rote Hue Aate Hai Sab https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e18Pgofqpnc

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This tracklist includes everything from Afrobeat-influenced Beijing funk endorsed by Gilles Peterson, to an electronic track crafted in a Tibetan monastery featuring Buddhist chanting. You can find links to listen to each track individually on the ChinaTalk substack. Enjoy!

1. Golden Seeds 黄金种子 by Sleeping Dogs

2. Never Broken, Never Healed by Seon Ga 信鴿

3. Aroma Compound by ayrtbh

4. Stage Riot 舞台 by Carsick Cars

5. Hereditary Nightmare 遗 传 噩 梦 by The Swan and Blossoms 天鹅与花朵

6. Kagi 鍵 by Voision Xi

7. 物件 (Object) by Mdprl & Git Bu$y Trio

8. Night Patrol by Fazi 法兹

9. Mantra Of Buddha Akshobhya 不 动 佛 心 咒 by Howie Lee

10. Ghostbomb by Ghostmass 大鬼众

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• Chinese labs' algorithmic progress (surprising to everyone but regular ChinaTalk listeners!)
• The geopolitical implications of scaling on test time compute
• What is and isn't working with US export controls
• And a whole lot more this was a great episode!

The CSET report I referenced: https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-sti-operations/

Chris and Lennart's ChinaTalk in early 2023 https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ai-compute-101-the-geopolitics-of

Outtro music: japanese citypop producers collaborating Beijinger Cheng Fangyuan in the 80s! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=403GCMhZ89Q&ab_channel=Heatwolves itself a cover of this Japanese track but better than the original https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyjnkuhRfJA&ab_channel=PopBULL

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Our guest today is Em who writes Active Faults, one of my favorite substacks that explores the China’s entertainment industry and celebrity fandom. It is a consistently dark read but one of my favorite discoveries this year. https://activefaults.substack.com/

Puttro music: one of those foreigners who showed up the Chinese singers in 歌手， China's 'The Voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMpnuYBcA_I

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Outtro Music: Young and Holtful by Young-Holt Unlimited, 1969. https://open.spotify.com/track/5am0dV7aB91Q6sWqIAuurA?autoplay=true

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Outtro music: Sabicas, Carcelera (Reflejo Andaluz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2_nX21D8Go

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The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo.

The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest.

In our conversation, we discuss:

• The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays;
• Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France;
• Advice for reading the book effectively;
• Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers.

For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch.

Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b

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Before DOJ, Lee was an attorney at DHS and then CBP, while Devin was a partner at Kirkland & Ellis and then worked with the Office of White House Counsel. Today we’ll be discussing the DOJ’s new proposed rule on data security. 

We get into…

• DOJ’s plan to protect your data from foreign adversaries,
• How public comments have shaped the proposed rule since the last time we interviewed Lee and Devin,
• DOJ’s tools for enforcing corporate compliance,
• The differences between data security regulations, privacy laws, and export controls,
• Why some public comments get accepted and some get rejected,
• The DOJ playbook for assembling a dream team of talented bureaucrats.

Thanks to Nicholas Welch for hosting this interview!

Outtro music: Bad Boys (Theme from Cops) (Youtube link) + Everybody Loves the Sunshine (Takuya Kuroda) (YouTube)

Submit comments here.

Check out our last show about the DOJ's data security rule here.

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Track 1: 芳草地 (The Fragrant Meadow) by DIGI GHETTO (艾志恒Asen/thomeboydontkill/mac ova seas/KIV/Mula Sakee/付思遥)

Track 2: 威远故事 (The Story of Weiyuan County) by GAI周延

Track 3: 变蓝 (Turning Blue) by 也是福 (Eddie Beatz) feat. PO8 and 喜辰晨

Track 4: 亚特兰蒂斯陷落 (Atlantis Surrenders) by 弗兰德斯坦/C-Low 

Track 5: 春雪采耳 (Ear Cleanse In The Spring Snow) by 施鑫文月 and 小老虎 (Lil Tiger)

Track 6: THE MESSAGE PT.2 by CREAM D and 艾热AIR

Track 7: 落幕 (Sunset) by Asen (feat. GALI, 堵琳Caroline)

Track 8: 囚 (Cage) by 李佳隆 (JelloRio)

Track 9: 恨与爱 (Hate and Love) by AThree 

Track 10: 不负责 (Why u blame on me?) by Capper and (ﾉI A I)ﾉ♡

Track 11: 危险派对 by 王以太

Links to all these songs can be found on the ChinaTalk Substack.

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No election content whatsoever!

1. 'Hohhot Aquarium' - NarrowLaneAngel 窄巷天使

One of the stand-out acts from the Kind of Shoegaze Vol. 1 compilation focused on young Chinese bands that was released at the start of the year, NarrowLaneAngel formed in Inner Mongolia in 2023. In August of that year, they released an eponymous debut EP.

2. 'Limpid' - Forsaken Autumn

Based in Shanghai, Forsaken Autumn have been together since 2011, propelled by the talents of britlulu (who also founded the East Asia Shoegaze Festival) and singer Ecke Wu. Released at the tail-end of 2015, Forsaken Autumn’s record Whenere — dubbed “the Chinese Loveless” by one commenter on Bandcamp — is a classic in Chinese shoegaze circles.

3. 'Nostalgia' - Summer Daze

Founded in 2021, Summer Daze are another band who featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series from Amemoyo. After a couple of early EPs, they've put out four new singles over the course of this year.

4. 'Firework' - The White Tulips

Xiamen music scene stalwart Chen Zhenchao (also known as Soda) has moved away from shoegaze into surf-rock and dream- and city-pop territory with his more recent projects, but in 2015 he and his band The White Tulips delivered the decidedly shoegazey Fondle. It’s re-release on vinyl in 2021 was a nod to its status as a Chinese shoegaze classic.

5. 'Float' - Chocland.doc 巧克力文件岛

Hebei five piece Chocland.doc apparently first came together at a former residence of Eileen Chang, but are seemingly yet to write a song based on Lust, Caution or any of her other novels. "Of course, the name of the band has no meaning," they say, "what you understand is what you understand."

6. 'Is your dream still out-focus' - Lunacid

Another one of China's newer shoegaze acts, Lunacid were formed in 2023. The trio hail from Changsha and also featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series.

7. '迷航' ('Dazedtrek') - 哲学思潮 (Philosophy Currents)

Formed just last year, 哲学思潮 hail from Nanning in Guangxi province, near the border with Vietnam. Their debut album Dazedtrek was recently made available on Bandcamp. 

8. 'Detached' - The Numen

Shanghai-based quartet The Numen met on arts review platform Douban and have pursued a shared love of shoegaze and indie-rock since the summer of 2023. They namecheck shoegaze greats such as My Bloody Valentine's Kevin Shields among their influences. 

9. 'Cat Tenant (Summer)' - Baby Formula

Formed by “three boring people with no expectations for the unknown journey ahead”, Beijing band Baby Formula came seemingly out of nowhere, dropped an impressive eponymous debut album in the autumn of 2013, and then promptly disappeared again. Still, their music continues to resonate over a decade later.

10. 'star' - Dear Eloise

As frontman for long-running band PK14, Yang Haisong is one of the godfathers of Chinese post-punk. Yet he’s also played a pivotal role in bringing more experimental, noisy, and yes, shoegazey sounds to the fore. Formed in 2007 with his wife (and one-time PK14 bassist) Sun Xia, Dear Eloise have released a string of atmospheric records over the years and remain an influential act in China.

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To discuss the successes, failures, and strategies of Soviet leaders, ChinaTalk interviewed Yakov Feygin. Feygin is the author of Building a Ruin: The Cold War Politics of Soviet Economic Reform, which examines how various Soviet leaders, institutions, and economists attempted to boost Soviet growth and national power. 

Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, writer of the Cogitations substack.

We discuss:

• The strengths and limitations of the Stalinist economic model,
• Khrushchev’s shift to “peaceful competition” with capitalism,
• Alternative policy paths that could have saved the Soviet Union,
• How technological optimism shaped Soviet reform efforts, inspiring the CCP in the process,
• Parallels between the institutions of the Soviet Union and those of contemporary China,
• The battle between political scientists and historians when analyzing the political economy of authoritarian states.

Outro music: Building a Ruin - Skyclad (Youtube link)

Links to all the books and papers referenced in this show are available on the ChinaTalk substack.

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訪談中、主要討論了以下幾個關鍵話題:

• 台積電的創立背景及其在全球半導體產業中的獨特定位
• 台灣政府在推動半導體產業發展中的角色,特別是工研院和科學園區的貢獻
• 台積電的管理模式,包括研發與製造部門的平衡以及人才培養策略
• 台灣半導體產業的國際競爭力,尤其是與三星等競爭對手的比較
• 台積電在全球地緣政治中的角色,以及"矽盾"這一概念的由來和影響
• AI時代對半導體產業的影響,特別是對記憶體和邏輯晶片整合的需求
• 台灣與美國在看待國際關係上的差異,以及這種差異對台灣國際戰略的影響

Special thanks to the host of this interview, Arrian Ebrahimi of the Chip Capitols substack. Cohosted by ChinaTalk editors Nicholas Welch and Lily Ottinger. 

Outtro music: Right Here Waiting, by Richard Marx. Youtube Link.

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We cover a lot of ground in this two-hour installment. During the first hour, we discuss…

• The aspects of imperial China’s governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon,
• The factors enabling Mao’s radical policies compared to imperial rulers,
• Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution,
• Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models,
• China’s economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s,
• How the events of 1989 permanently altered China’s trajectory,
• Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable,

In the second hour, we discuss...

• The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping,
• What sets Xi apart from his predecessors,
• Succession challenges and the importance of term limits in authoritarian states,
• Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization,
• How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China,
• Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China.

Outro music: Nothing to My Name (一无所有) by Cui Jian (崔健) (Youtube Link)

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In this first half of our two-part interview, we discuss…

• How the imperial examination system (known as keju) shaped Chinese governance, culture, and society,
• Why autocratic Chinese dynasties benefitted from a meritocratic bureaucracy,
• Statistical methods for analyzing social mobility in imperial China,
• How the keju system survived the Mongol conquest,
• What the tradeoffs in the imperial exam system can teach us about the future economic prospects of China and Taiwan.

Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä, host of the On Humans podcast. 

NOTES (Courtesy of Ilari)

A Rough Timeline of Chinese history:

Pre–221 BCE: Disunity (e.g. Warring States) 

221 BCE – 220: Unity (Qin & Han dynasties)

220 – 581: Disunity (“Han-Sui Interregnum”)

581 – 1911: Unity (Sui, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties)

Historical figures

Emperor Wanli 萬曆帝 | Shen Kuo 沈括 (polymath) | Zhu Xi 朱熹 (classical philosopher) | Hong Xiuquan 洪秀全 (leader of the Taiping Rebellion) | Yuan Shikai 袁世凯 (military leader) | Chiang Kai-shek 蔣介石 (military leader and statesman)

Modern scholars

Ping-ti Ho 何炳棣 (historian) | Clair Yang (economist) | Joseph Needham (scientist and historian) | Daron Acemoglu | James Robinson

Historical terms

Keju civil service exams | Taiping Rebellion

REFERENCES

A lot of the original data discussed in the episode is original from Huang’s book. As an exception, Huang references his co-authored article on civil service exams and imperial stability, written with Clair Yang.

Outtro music: 等着你回来 by 白光, a 1930s Shanghai starlet https://open.spotify.com/track/0aHMT9dIdPDz094fc37Xq0?si=d1591ff2339d421c

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Formerly an Obama official in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Kumar spent several years at Schmidt Futures focusing on science and technology philanthropy. He has been a mentor and cheerleader for ChinaTalk over the years, and he is the president of the newly established Renaissance Philanthropy.

We discuss:

• The inspiration behind Renaissance Philanthropy and its focus on mid-scale, field-transforming ideas
• Strategies for identifying underexplored, high-impact projects — including weather forecasting, carbon sequestration, and datasets on neurocognition
• Structural challenges for R&D funding at the level of government and universities
• The role of focused research organizations like OpenAI in accelerating progress and understanding long-term drivers of productivity
• A wide angle-view of US-China competition and strategic innovation
• The underresearched importance of alliance management.

Outtro music:

Song 1 - If ye love me - Thomas Tallis and the Cambridge Singers (Youtube Link)

Song 2 - Recercare (I) - Francesco Spinacino and Robert Meunier (Youtube Link)

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We discuss…

• How the intelligence community informs high-level policymaking,
• Why different institutional approaches are needed to collect intelligence on non-state actors vs nation-state adversaries,
• Challenges in assessing China’s technological and military capabilities,
• “Narrative Intelligence” and areas where intelligence agencies have a unique edge,
• Strategies for improving long-term forecasting and avoiding groupthink.

Outro music: Scorpions - Wind Of Change (Youtube Link)

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Nazak served in the Trump administration after a long career as a civil servant, where she was instrumental in shaping the Commerce Department’s work on China, first at the International Trade Administration and later leading the Bureau of Industry and Security. Peter worked in the Biden administration on the National Economic Council and National Security Council, focusing on international economics, export controls, and investment restrictions.

We discuss…

• The role of the executive in setting the industrial policy agenda
• Leadership shortcomings in the Biden and Trump administrations
• Competition with China — bipartisan consensus, bureaucratic inertia, and strategies to stop wasting time.
• Advice for America’s next president, from export controls to pharmaceutical decoupling and alliance management
• Creative approaches to supply chain resilience

This is 2023 CSET report Jordan referenced (See the “Understanding the Intangibles section)

Outtro Music: Jun Mayuzumi - Black Room (Youtube Link)

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Jeff Ding argues in a 2023 paper that great powers must harness general-purpose technologies if they want to achieve global dominance. That is, diffusion capacity (not just innovation capacity) is critical to economic growth — and China actually fares much worse in diffusion capacity than mainstream narratives imply.

In this show, we discuss the historical underpinnings of that argument and apply it to AI today — drawing out policymaking lessons spanning centuries of technologically driven great power transitions. We also get into:

• Why long-term productivity growth is driven by the diffusion of general-purpose technology, and what makes this so crucial for great power competition;
• Historical lessons from the UK, Soviet Union, US, and Germany illustrating the cultural and policy roadblocks to tech diffusion;
• The importance of decentralized systems, and how this helped America win the Cold War
• Why China’s diffusion capacity lags behind its innovation capacity, and how America should avoid getting locked into any one technological trajectory.

Co-hosting is Teddy Collins, formerly of DeepMind and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Outro music: 分享那奇沃夫/Prodby玉的单曲《亚克西》(Youtube Link)

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To discuss the domestic and international implications of patent policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Brian Pomper. Brian was the Chief International Trade Counsel to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, and he is now a partner at Akin Gump.

We discuss:

• The history of America’s innovation hegemony, from the signing of the Constitution to patent trolls and Elon Musk
• Why big tech companies spent decades systematically attacking the foundations of the US patent system
• The thermonuclear patent war of Apple vs Samsung
• The evolution of Standard Essential Patents (SEPs) as a battleground for emerging tech competition
• Why China’s approach to patent litigation is causing controversy in Europe
• The intersection of patent policy and international trade agreements.

Outtro music: Minitel Rose - Magic Powder (Youtube Link)

Here's the 2-hour show on global tech standards from the ChinaTalk archives: Global Standards: What's the Deal? Spotify link, Apple Podcasts Link

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We interviewed William Henagan and Robert Obayda, both directors of the NSC. We discuss:

• How Canada, Finland, and the United States are leveling up their cooperation in the Arctic through the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact); 
• The mechanics of industrial policy in the US government;
• Why cranes matter for national security, and the benefits of using carrots vs sticks;
• What icebreakers are for, and how Finland is punching above its weight in the NATO alliance.

Co-hosting today is former ChinaTalk intern Alexander Boyd, who is currently at the China Digital Times. 

Outtro music: Arctic Monkeys — A Certain Romance (link) and Mardy Bum (link)

Pictured: the Russian icebreaker Yamal.

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“To the extent present military and civilian leadership is articulating its strategy, it is one built, for the most part, on a continuation of previous programmatic and budgetary trendlines. If there is a strategy for losing a future war in China, this is it.”

Unit X traces the evolution of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), a group of Pentagon insurgents who are fighting to change how the DoD relates to emerging technologies.

We discuss:

• The origin story of DIU and its early struggles to break Pentagon bureaucracy;
• How DIU leveraged “waiver authority” to circumvent red tape under Defense Secretary Ash Carter;
• Why the defense industrial base is ill-equipped to keep pace with technological change;
• The case for shifting more DoD spending to non-traditional tech companies;
• Lessons from commercial spaceflight for future AI governance, including potential issues with a “Manhattan project for AI.”

Outtro music: 告五人 Accusefive - 愛人錯過 Somewhere in Time (Youtube Link)

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For a breather from the election chaos, ChinaTalk interviewed Will Lasry, Montreal-based designer, manufacturing specialist, and founder of Glass Factory. Will and his team are on a mission to make manufacturing transparent. They fly all around the world making documentaries on clothing factories and playing matchmaker between designers and producers. Check out his Youtube channel here. 

We discuss: 

• How clothes are made, including the complicated processes behind distressed denim and other trends; 
• What makes a country an ideal destination for manufacturing clothing, and whether rising labor costs will drive the industry out of China entirely;
• Xinjiang cotton, environmental destruction, and other unethical practices hanging over the fashion industry;
• Why Gucci and other high-end designers are betting that “Made in India” will soon be even more chic than “Made in Italy.” 

Co-hosting today is longtime ChinaTalk editor Irene Zhang.

Outtro music: Vinida Weng - WAIYA! (Youtube Link)

Thumbnail image: Link.

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How has the Strategic Patroleum Reserve evolved into new relevance with some fun new powers over the past few years, and how can America take lessons from this success and apply them to addressing critical minerals?

And what secrets of policy entrepreneurship can Arnab teach me?

To discuss we have on Arnab Datta of Employ America and Matt Klein of The Overshoot podcast.

Plus we get some parent corner!

Outtro music: Melody by Ash Island (matched my mood of wanting to scream things I don't understand) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHWWGm0nxYk

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Senator Todd Young of Indiana (R). He’s a rare breed on Capitol Hill these days: an actual legislator. Sen. Young drafted the Chips and Science Act with Sen. Schumer and is the co-author of my personal favorite bill this Congress which aims to establish an Office of Global Competition Analysis. He announced earlier this year that he would not be endorsing Trump’s candidacy this cycle.

We get into…

• Biden’s woes
• The case for an office of tech net assessment
• The future of tech legislation post-Chevron
• The Senate’s AI Policy Roadmap and where the GOP is on AI regulation
• Chinese espionage and high-skill immigration policy

Outtro music: AC/DC - Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap (Youtube Link)

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We get into King Lear, Richard II, Macbeth and Coriolanus to illustrate themes on conniving courtiers, political marriages, and politicians facing the end.

Joining us today: Eliot Cohen, author of The Hollow Crown, two dramaturgs Drew Lichtenberg and Kate Pitt, as well as actor Phil Schneider.

Kate's substack: https://shakespearenews.substack.com/

Phil's still looking for an agent! Reach out to me jordan@chinatalk.media to connect with him!

Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEqnXNsAFL8

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed David Lin, Abigail Kukura, and Venkat Somala from the Special Competitive Studies Project. SCSP’s new report outlines exactly how America should compete in the tech-powered future of geopolitics. 

We get into…

• The role of public-private research partnerships and SCSP’s relationship with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence;
• A strategy for upgrading US institutions with the help of emerging technologies like AI;
• The historical decline of government-backed research in the US;
• China’s industrial espionage and the potential for stolen innovations to consolidate authoritarianism across the globe;
• Bureaucratic moonshots and techniques for communicating urgency to the slow-moving American polity.

Our past episode on tech net assessment: Crafting A National Tech Strategy and Reviving Net Tech Assesment (Spotify Link) (Apple Podcasts Link)

Our past episode on bureaucratic moonshots: Peter Harrell on Bureaucratic Barriers to Competition (Spotify Link) (Apple Podcasts Link)

Outtro music: SadSvit - Касета (Youtube Link)

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed the CEO of Scale AI, Alex Wang. In a blog post announcing Scale’s $1 billion fundraising success, Alex wrote that Scale is aiming to grow into the world's data foundry for AI.

Alex grew up in Los Alamos, New Mexico, with two physicist parents who worked in the national labs, and he started Scale in college.

I am particularly excited to have Alex on the show because he is perhaps the only private-sector AI leader working with the DoD and thinking seriously about the national security implications of AI.

We discuss:

• The three key factors limiting rapid AGI takeoff, and how quickly these barriers will be overcome;
• China’s strengths and weaknesses in the race for AGI;
• National security implications for winning (or losing) the AI race;
• Prospects for AI net assessment and the case for a Manhattan project for data;
• Methods to prevent AI espionage without kneecapping innovation or profiling immigrants.

Outtro music: Zach Bryan - Pink Skies (Youtube Link)

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dmitri Alperovitch. Dmitri emigrated from Russia in 1994 at age 13. He co-founded the leading cybersecurity startup Crowdstrike, and has spent the past four years running his new think tank, the Silverado Policy Accelerator. 

He's also the author of the new book World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century. 

We discuss:

• Lessons from Cold War crises that almost went nuclear;
• Underappreciated parallels between the Soviet Union and China today;
• Groupthink in Washington as well as in Silicon Valley;
• What a productive economic relationship with China would look like given national security concerns;
• Some bold military and diplomatic recommendations for Taiwan;

… and more!

Work with Matt at Open Philanthropy: Clickable link, URL: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/openphilanthropy/f33460e1-e092-46ae-918a-85338ffad9a3

Kennedy's speech to the American people regarding the Berlin Wall: JFK Library.

Outtro music: Leningradskie mosty from 1957 USSR

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00:00:00 'Narcissus' Death' — Backspace (read more)

00:05:38 '红喷泉' — Pepper Heart (read more)

00:09:35 'Mail from the River' (live) — Wang Wen (read more)

00:15:30 '她的力量来自海洋' — Yang Haisong & Wang Xiaofeng (read more)

00:22:32 'Ollie' — 西红、CNdY (read more)

00:26:43 'Lost in Bamboos' — Cola Ren (read more)

00:30:38 'Southern Shanghai' — Voision Xi (read more)

00:34:20 'Liquid' — Duck Fight Goose (read more)

00:36:54 '玉林敬酒歌‘ — Run Run Run (read more)

00:40:35 'Mountains in Yukashima' — Birdstriking (read more)

00:45:38 'SonicBaby' — XIAOWANG (read more)

00:48:25 'My Vagina' — Fakeorgasm (read more)

00:50:25 'Mantra of Vajra Armour' — Howie Lee (read more)

00:54:08 'Bash Bayawan Muqam' — Mekit Dolan Muqam Group (read more)

00:59:13 'Μῆνιν ἄειδε, θεὰ παραμαινομένη ἐμοῦ...' — Ὁπλίτης (read more)

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Eliot Cohen: SAIS professor, military historian, and counselor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. He is also the author of The Hollow Crown: Shakespeare on How Leaders Rise, Rule, and Fall. 

Co-hosting is Jordan’s little brother, actor Phil Schneider. He recently graduated from Yale where he starred in a production of Hamlet. He’s played Romeo, Octavius Valentine, Richard II, and Leontes. Also, he’s looking for a new agent — reach out at jordan@chinatalk.media!

They discuss: 

• Royal/executive power — what getting it does to you, and why relinquishing it is so hard;
• Court intrigues of yore (and today);
• Timeless techniques for exhorting and manipulating the masses;
• What makes a great speech;
• What it really means to be an effective leader, and how great leaders know when it's time to quit.

Nixon's Farewell speech: Youtube link.

Outtro audio: Orson Welles Recounts Crossing Paths With Hitler And Churchill. Youtube link.

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What did the American invasion plan look like? Why did Marshall decide to go another route? What lessons do this and other amphibious invasions hold for Taiwan’s current force posture?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed US Army Field Artillery Lieutenant Colonel J. Kevin McKittrick, currently at the Air War College in Alabama and a veteran of multiple deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Co-hosting today is our resident Taiwan consultant Nicholas Welch.

We discuss:

• The US military’s aborted plan to invade Taiwan during WWII;
• Why bigger is better when it comes to amphibious assaults;
• What the US got right and the CCP gets wrong about civil-military relations;
• Taiwan’s defense concept, and the opportunities presented by “operational pause”;
• The awful, unending relevance of traditional artillery in modern war;
• And why the US doesn’t need its own “rocket force” … yet.

Outtro music: 被動 (Passive) by 伍佰 Wu Bai&China Blue. Youtube Link.

Photo: White House, July 29, 1942. Left to right: Admiral Ernest King, Admiral William Leahy, and General George Marshall. | Wikimedia Commons

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What happened to deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? Can the status quo be saved?

To discuss strategies for avoiding WWIII, ChinaTalk interviewed Jared McKinney of the Air War College and Peter Harris of Colorado State University, who recently co-authored a monograph entitled, “Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait.”

Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk’s resident Taiwan consultant, Nicholas Welch.

We discuss…

• Evidence of deterrence decay in the status quo;
• The difference between constraints and restraints, and how they fit together to form a lattice of successful deterrence;
• Whether symbolic solidarity with Taiwan does more harm than good;
• The values and costs of strategic ambiguity;
• How Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture;
• Lessons from the dance of death between Iran and Israel;
• Objective factors for measuring invasion risk, and whether the world should be scared about 2027;
• How to analyze decision trees for fundamentally irrational decisions;

... and more!

Outtro music: MJ116, 辣台妹 (HOT CHICK) - Official music video: MJ116【辣台妹 HOT CHICK】- (youtube link)

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Pablo Chavez, a fellow at CNAS and former Vice President of Google Cloud's Public Policy division, as well as the inestimable investing tycoon Kevin Xu. Xu, formerly of GitHub, is the founder of Interconnected, a bilingual newsletter on the intersections of tech, business, investing, geopolitics, and US-Asia relations.

In this interview, we discuss:

• The digital sovereignty movement and the lessons we can learn from China's Great Firewall;
• The value and risks of open source architecture in the future of AI governance;
• Meta’s long history of open source and how Llama fits into that strategy;
• The geopolitical and cultural forces driving nations to pursue their own AI strategies;
• The viability of sovereign AI initiatives in the face of global tech giants.

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• What DC should understand about the Bay Area AI engineer psyche
• What GPT4o and Google's AI Dev Day mean for the future of AI
• OpenAI's model spec, and exit, voice, and loyalty in the leading labs

Outtro music: Scarlett Johansson's The Moon Song

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Douglas Irwin is a Dartmouth professor and the author of Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy. On this episode, Irwin provides an overview to the history of U.S. trade policy from the 18th century to the modern day, highlighting significant legislation as well as the formation of important intergovernmental organizations that have sprung up along the way.

Outro Music: Janis Joplin, Mercedes Benz

19:53: On the flawed logic behind the Tariff Act of 1930, and the parallels with similarly problematic thinking in the modern day: “There’s absolutely a parallel there because some Democrats in Congress said, ‘You know, we ought to really think about this carefully, and not just our domestic interest but also our export interests, and other countries might retaliate.’ And basically, the reaction of most members of Congress was, Republicans at the time, ‘No, we don’t have to worry about that. This is a domestic piece of legislation, it doesn’t really concern other countries. They’re not going to retaliate.’ And, of course, they did.”

39:40: Doug discusses the tips and tricks behind one example of “tariff engineering”: “The tariffs applied to motorcycles with piston displacements of 700cc and above. What Honda started doing is producing a 699cc version. Now the difference [between the two] is imperceptible, but just by changing that one cubic centimeter, it changed the whole tariff treatment and you avoided a 45 percent tariff and were assessed at a much, much lower rate.”

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Earlier podcast deep dive on Chinese EV policy: ChinaTalk: Why Chinese EVs Will Take Over the World on Apple Podcasts

Earlier podcast on the deep history of US trade policy: ChinaTalk: Tarriffs, taxes, and trade: Doug Irwin on ChinaEconTalk on Apple Podcasts

Brad's paper: Power and Financial Interdependence (ifri.org)

Outtro Music: Golden Earring's Radar Love

Here's a fun playlist on the best car songs: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/6l0sSAdFwyCH1yzQX2IrKQ?si=fb3b8fdd29644631

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In this interview, we discuss:

• What is MITRE and how does it support national science & technology strategy
• How China threatens America’s infrastructure and university R&D
• The cyber workforce gap and how AI could fill it
• Finding mission-driven work for highly skilled technologists
• How the ecosystem of S&T and R&D funding evolved through the 20th century to today

Outtro music: Yung Bae, Magic Yung Bae - Magic (youtube.com)

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Today’s interview discusses:

• Sleuthing techniques for independent journalism;
• The challenges faced by Taiwanese semiconductor engineers relocating to Arizona;
• TSMC’s management style and the complaints raised by new American employees;
• The similarities and differences between TSMC’s expansion to the USA and Foxconn’s expansion to India;
• Whether adapting to American work culture will tank the prospects of the new Phoenix Fab.

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To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dr. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore.

Co-hosting today is James Crabtree, author of The Billionaire Raj.

We get into:

• What the border disputes between China and India can tell us about the political economy of the two nations;
• The anti-imperial history that frames India-China relations;
• Modi’s election prospects and India’s spirit of democracy;
• What score Biden’s diplomatic team has earned in Southeast Asia;
• Criticisms of Modi and accusations of democratic backsliding;
• Opportinities for friction in the US-India relationship, including Trump tariffs, immigration, and Russia;
• Whether the US is making a “bad bet” on India, and how India is prepared to involve itself during an invasion of Taiwan.

Outtro Music: Jhoome Jo Pathaan Vishal-Shekhar, Arijit Singh, Sukriti Kakar, Vishal Dadlani, Shekhar Ravjiani, Kumaar https://open.spotify.com/track/6FAYpZ4jve8vpvTwUvjK6H?si=66c7c984fd52497cs

12 Bande 12 Bande - song and lyrics by Varinder Brar | Spotify

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We get into:

• A stroll through recent economic history leading to today's 'boom times'
• Why more people are looking to leave traditional occupations for insurgent firms
• Challenges around demographics and immigration

Outtro Music:

Idol by Yaosobi https://open.spotify.com/track/1hAloWiinXLPQUJxrJReb1?si=36552bdc34cb4a73

Matsuri No Genzo by Hideo Shiraki and 3 Koto Girls https://open.spotify.com/track/6eTteH1zyZeQKZ2Mu7VC5d?si=230b3d1739d5417e

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Suzuki-san is a professor at the University of Tokyo. He serves as an advisor to Japan’s Ministry of the Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) as well as advising Japan’s space program. He served on the UN Security Council's Iran Sanctions Panel, and he also recently established the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan. 

We get into…

• What Japan’s new economic national security law does, and what it means for global semiconductor supply chains;
• The state of multilateral export controls;
• Nippon steel, the US election, and cooperation between East Asian democracies;
• Historical examples of economic coercion, from the Qing Dynasty to FDR vs imperial Japan to the Senkaku islands;
• Japan’s goals for space commercialization;

… and more!

Co-hosting today is Arrian Ebrahimi, student at Yenching academy and author of the Chip Capitols Substack.

Outtro Music: Every Breath You Take/Theme from Peter Gunn as featured on the Sopranos The Sopranos - Every Breath You Take (youtube.com)

Cover photo: Toyohara Kuniteru III | Illustration of the Imperial Diet House of Commons with a Listing of all Members | Japan | Meiji period (1868–1912) | The Metropolitan Museum of Art (metmuseum.org)

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• Intel's process progress and rocky financial road ahead
• Reflections out of GTC
• Jensen's galaxy brain

Photo of the woman who saved Intel, Dr. Ann Kelleher, General Manager of Foundry Technology Development.

Outtro music: YELLOW黃宣 & 9m88 - 怪天氣 Strange Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n_i0JupwRA

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Before his current posting as US ambassador to Japan, Rahm served as a senior advisor to Bill Clinton, multiple terms in the US House of Representatives, Obama’s first chief of staff, and the mayor of Chicago.

If nothing else, you can count on his gloves-off, no-holds-barred approach to politics — and he’s been no different when it comes to China. Notwithstanding reports that even officials in Biden’s NSC have told him to stop “taunting” China, Rahm has been consistently, uniquely willing to say out loud what virtually every other high-ranking US official doesn’t.

Of course, the ambassador — or, as his desk placard during his chief-of-staff days read, “Undersecretary for Go Fuck Yourself” — may take issue with that framing. His comments aren’t “critical,” Rahm says, but “truthful.”

This interview covers a ton of ground. On China:

• How the Biden administration is closing the chapter on “hub and spokes,” what tomorrow’s “latticework” architecture will look like, and what Asia-Pacific alliances might look like under a second Trump administration;
• The future of Japan-Korea, and a peek behind the curtain on how the historic Camp David summit materialized;
• Rahm’s “3 Cs” for China — calm, conflict, charm — and how US foreign-policy leaders should reckon the mutual inconsistencies among those three;
• And roads not taken by Xi: why Rahm thinks China’s entrepreneurial culture has taken a nosedive, and what China’s government today is most scared of.

And on politics and life:

• Why “diplomacy” and “politics” are the same thing — and why that’s a good thing;
• Whether the State Department suffers from a personality deficit, and what makes for a good ambassador;
• How to heal America’s body politic — post-Trump, post-Recession, post-GWOT;
• Why Rahm thinks “quality time” with kids is “BS,” and thoughts on raising kids as a time-crunched politician;
• And what Rahm thinks the biggest emerging threat to the world is.

I really enjoyed my trip to Japan, and I’d love a financial excuse to continue recording shows on the country. If you work at JETRO, METI, The Japan Foundation, Mitsubishi, Rakuten, etc. and are interested in seeing more deep coverage of Japan and US-China-Japan relations on this podcast, do reach out!

Outtro music: Tadao Hayashi Japanese Harp Trio's 1977 take on I Could Have Danced All Night Tadao Hayashi Harp Trio – The Impossible Dream 1977 (youtube.com)

Also from 1977, Tokai by Kaeko Onuki Tokai (youtube.com)

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To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Jason Kelly, the Chair and Vice Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology. Jason is the Co-Founder and CEO of Ginkgo Bioworks, a publicly traded firm that provides a horizontal platform for cell programming. Michelle Rozo is currently Vice President of Technical Capabilities at In-Q-Tel, and she previously held positions in Biden’s NSC, the Department of Defense, and on the Hill.

Co-hosting today is Chris “CRISPR” Miller, author of Chip War.

We get into:

• The powerful science behind genetic engineering ;
• How the US government turned biotechnology into a $1 trillion industry over the course of the last fifty years;
• Why generative AI is destined to revolutionize synthetic biology;
• And whether China’s national biotech champions can leapfrog the US.



Outtro music: Suite Bergamasque: Clair de Lune, No. 3 (youtube.com)

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To discuss the US domestic politics of the dramatic rollout and broader social, national, and geopolitical implications of the House's passage of a bill that would force Bytedance to divest from TikTok US, Ben Smith of Semafor joins the podcast.

Outtro music:

Olivia Rodrigo - Deja Vu 【Sped Up & reverb】 (youtube.com)

The Platters - Only You - Lyrics - YouTube

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Matt Clifford, according to Politico Britain’s most powerful tech adviser, joins ChinaTalk to discuss! He served as Prime Minister Sunak's sherpa for the UK AI Summit, chairs ARIA, the UK's answer to DARPA, and co-founded Entrepreneur First, a startup incubator with a strong presence throughout Europe and Southeast Asia. 

We get into:

• Tech Diplomacy & the UK AI Safety Summit: How countries are waking up to the watershed moment at the advent of powerful new AI, and the surprising commonalities in China’s perspectives on AI safety. 
• Organizational Design at ARIA: What are the challenges creating a world-class science project in government? How can you attract the best people and create the right organizational culture for success?
• Open Source AI and the Global AI Race — How should we evaluate the approaches to AI across different countries and private actors? What’s the verdict on open source models?
• Preparing for monumental changes — and why history cautions against expecting business as usual, and how fiction can open our mind to the possibilities.

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• Why Weibo keeps Molly up at night;
• Chinese elementary school kids’ academic prowess;
• How social issues gain attention on the trending list;
• Terrible bots;
• And what makes microblogging uniquely compelling.

Outtro music is 演员 by Joker Xue 薛之谦: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKuL5xaKZHM

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To discuss the State Department’s options for AI integration, we interviewed the State Department's Deputy Chief Data and AI Officer, Garrett Berntsen. He served as an officer during two tours in Afghanistan and recently rotated off the NSC. He's optimistic diplomacy can be more effective with comprehensive, timely, and accurate data-driven analysis, and that AI will be part of achieving that mission.

We get into:

• How AI can streamline bureaucratic busy work
• The value of data-driven negotiation prep in diplomatic contexts
• The benefits of transparency in a democratic society
• What level of risk is appropriate for the civil service
• How close he is to getting ChatGPT into State
• The balance between transparency and secrecy in the age of big data
• How the Snowden leaks changed the State Department’s relationship with technology
• What the State Department can and can't import from the private sector

Thanks to the Hudson Institute and Andrew Marshall Foundation for supporting this podcast.

Outtro music: 國蛋 GorDoN - White Noise ft. 蛋堡 Soft Lipa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ZM440owzw

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Chris Miller of Chip War cohosts.

We get into:

• How the political economy of technology in India led to world class software and services but underwhelming manufacturing
• Why India was slower to the uptake than China that socialism really sucks at getting your country rich
• What it takes to design a chip.

Outtro music: Ye Jo Des Hai Tera https://youtu.be/4tiVPuLbbHg?feature=shared

Image: spectacular Mughal painting of an elephant currently on at the Met. that I prompted with semiconductor alot https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/825607?pkgids=906

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The hosts of the excellent Latent Space podcast, Alessio Fanelli of Decibel VC and Shawn Wang of Smol AI, come on to discuss.

We get into:

• How the secret sauce used to push the frontier of AI diffuses out of the top labs and into substacks
• How labs are managing the culture change from quasi-academic outfits to places that have to ship
• How open source raises the global AI standard, but why there's likely to always be a gap between closed and open source
• China as a "GPU Poor" nation
• Three key algorithmic innovations that could reshape the balance of power between the GPU rich and GPU poor

Outtro music: CHEKI https://open.spotify.com/track/1zKL2bOEkMDGuIjLhG34YA?si=9a713a88aa3d4f71

Cover photo: "Inkstand with A Madman Distilling His Brains" 1600s Urbino. Kind of like training a model! https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/188899

The met description: In this whimsical maiolica sculpture, a well-dressed man leans forward in his seat with his head in a covered pot set above a fiery hearth. The vessel beside the hearth almost certainly held ink. The man’s actions are explained by an inscription on the chair: "I distill my brain and am totally happy." Thus the task of the writer is equated with distillation—the process through which a liquid is purified by heating and cooling, extracting its essence.

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Today, Matt chairs the China Program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

In this interview, we discuss:

• How Matt expects a second Trump administration’s China policy might develop.
• Why Trump is leaning more into strategic ambiguity than Biden, what that means for deterrence, and how that impacts the likelihood of him standing by were the PRC to invade Taiwan.
• Why bipartisan support for the US-China trade war will continue to shape the contours of great-power conflict.
• Matt’s look at the origins and political fallout of COVID-19.
• Plus, reflections on Mike Flynn and how Trump ran his NSC. 

SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER! https://www.chinatalk.media/

Outtro music: Miles Davis, So What https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylXk1LBvIqU

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Is the national security bureaucracy in America unwell?

To discuss, I have on today John Gans, a former Pentagon speechwriter, who’s had many, many other jobs in Washington. He is also the author of the fantastic “White House Warriors,” a history of the National Security Council.  

We get into:

• Why the organizational design of the NSC leads to such crushing burdens for midlevel and senior staffers
• The kinds of high-flyers that are drawn to the national security complex and what keeps them there
• How POTUS’s time constraints impact decision-making
• Why NSC’s historically are excellent at spotting problems but often overeager when crafting solutions
• The NSC’s role in America’s “forever wars.”
• Roosevelt, Kennedy, Nixon, and Trump’s “maverick model” of running the NSC compared to the Eisenhower vision of “regular order”
• How seemingly prosaic technological innovations like track changes and video conferencing have dramatically changed national security policymaking
• How reading Shakespeare can improve the quality of our policy-making
• What a better model could look like

Illustration from the New Yorker's recent feature on Sullivan. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat

Outtro audio from

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We discuss:

• The lack of surprises in the election results, the subdued vibes during the campaign, and contrasts between local perspectives and foreign media narratives.
• Why the KMT failed to win the presidency, notwithstanding voter dissatisfaction with the DPP.
• China’s surprisingly muted response to the election, and how it may reassess its cross-Strait policies given a third DPP president.
• The new composition of the Legislative Yuan, and the strategic position of the Taiwan People’s Party as gatekeeper.
• Observations from Kharis’s time in Taiwan during the election season, and the gift of Taiwan’s democratic process.

Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwlWDCCevY

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Trent Hone, author of Learning War and Mastering the Art of Command, joins to discuss.

Outtro Music: A selection from Brahms' 3rd Symphony, apparently Adm. Nimitz's favorite https://open.spotify.com/track/3T9xcTbS2E3epbncsMwkNC?si=296e316488c841d5

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ChinaTalk editor Nicholas Welch reads his latest recap of the 2024 Taiwan elections: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/taiwan-election-results-how-lai-won

Subscribe to the newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media

Outro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JV9ayVWYr8

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Today I'm running a crossover episode with the Retort AI, hosted by AI Ethicist Tom Gilbert and Nathan Lambert who writes the fantastic https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter covering technological advancements in machine learning.

Outtro Music: Bela Fleck et al, Bahar https://open.spotify.com/track/4D1ne3QFCBtUU2xFnoTir4?si=aeef1aefc6e047c6

Cover photo is a Midjourney a riff off of this very cool Derian portrait showing in the MET till Jan 21 https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/846896?pkgids=884

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• A Date With The Future 照亮你 (2023, mainland): Romance where a firefighter falls in love with a journalist!
• **Ordinary Greatness** 警察荣誉 (2022, mainland): Sitcom about a local police station.
• The World Between Us 我們與惡的距離 (2019, Taiwan): Acclaimed miniseries set in the aftermath of a mass shooting, addressing media sensationalism, treatment of the mentally ill, and the death penalty.

Outtro music: Kiss Me by Taiwanese artist Karencici https://open.spotify.com/track/7HZmJLWtISxYnoBqwx04bw?si=896165f1b52a4aa0

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• Innovation vs diffusion in the DoD context
• Data issues making her life difficult
• How CDAO sources and tests ideas for implementing AI into different corners of the kill chain

Thanks to the Andrew Marshall Foundation and the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for bringing you this episode.

Outtro music: SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS Andre 3k, Killer Mike, Future, Erykah Badu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kU0SmxKucCw

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Here's his accompanying year in review post https://jakenewby.substack.com/p/2023-in-review?utm_source=activity_item

Tracklist:

Intro: 'Lost in China' (excerpt) – Tation 天声 (self-released) This 'postmodernist rock band from Tibet' produced some of their best work to date on the remarkable Illusions of the New Era EP.

‘Wen’s Woozy Wrap’ – Pu Poo Platter (fRUITYSHOP) Key cut from Brooklyn-formed Chinese funk group’s debut LP.

‘Greedysleeper’ – A Wordless Orange 沉默橙 (Taihe) Young Wuhan group deliver soulful pop-rock on one of the year’s best albums.

‘Watch the Crown’ – BoomHan 包涵 (Seafood Market Records) A sample of the 17-year-old Changsha rap prodigy’s impressive flow, from his debut album Gravediggaz.

‘Umbrella’ (featuring J-Fever) – PO8 (Tildawn Music) Not a Rihanna cover. Chengdu rapper toys with Shanghai jazz sounds.

‘Rap’ – ZhiYu Xia 夏之禹 (Mintone Records) Sichuan-born rapper, dubbed ‘the Jia Zhangke of hip hop’, dissects how he fell in love with the genre.

‘Where’s Tommy?’ – Hualun 花伦 (bié Records) intriguing change of direction from the ambient soundtrack masters.

‘Specter’ – The Fallacy 疯医 (Modern Sky) Brilliant return to form from Henan post-punks enlivened by new recruit Li Zenghui, who also played sax with Black Midi earlier this year

‘Cliff’ – The river, Orchestration, Walkman! 河边走 (self-released) Short sharp burst of bewildering brassy brilliance from one of the best new bands to emerge in 2023.

‘Vanished Instant’ – A Fishy Tale 有话 (Qiii Snacks Records) Another young band with a psychedelic sound; recorded during a trip to a Zhejiang mountain village.

‘East Yunnan Hallucinations’ – Instinkto Industrio 本能事业 (Maybe Mars) Folksy rhythms mix with techno-dystopian lyrics on one of 2023’s most characterful records. 

‘Standing in the Wind’ – Zhaoze 沼泽 (self-released) Guangdong guqin-driven post-rock outfit’s new album is one of their best.

‘Station 2020’ – Wu Zhuoling 吴卓玲 (self-released) The leading lady of alternative Chengdu music serves up an immersive ambient tune.

‘The Little Assassin Who Lives Beside the Sea Becomes and Environmentalist’ – Li Daiguo 李带菓 (Beihesan) The Dali-based artist had a productive year; this beautiful number was among the highlights.

‘Daididau’ (excerpt) – Mamer (Old Heaven Books) A too-short taste of a 7-minute long improvised piece on traditional Kazakh instrument the sherter from musical genius Mamer.

‘Four Seasons’ – Hugjiltu (self-released) An emotive folk number from an album featuring ‘collaborations’ with tapes of the Mongolian musician’s late father.

‘Harbour for Bias’ – Louzhang 楼长 (Jyugam) An alt-ambient highlight from a strong year for this offbeat Guangdong electronic label.

‘Snoring in the Valley’ – Howie Lee (self-released) Quirky electronic music from the renowned producer, quietly slipped out at the start of the year.

‘Solaris’ – Zhang Weiwei 张玮玮 (self-released) Chinese folk grandee swaps his accordion for a synth to interesting effect on his first album in over a decade.

‘I Want An Earth’ – Yu Su (pinchy&friends) Title track from the celebrated producer’s impressive EP of clever, beguiling electronic sounds.

‘Holes of Time’ – 33EMYBW (SVBKVLT) A typically idiosyncratic slice of avant club music from one of China’s leading producers.

‘The Forest That Hears’ – Laughing Ears (self-released) A welcome return from one of the country’s most interesting electronic music artists.

‘W.C.’ (Liars remix) – otay:onii (No Gold) Acclaimed artist Angus Andrew adds a new dimension to otay:onii’s weirdness after bié Records released her third LP in March.

‘Ἀντὶ θεῶν’ – Ὁπλίτης (self-released) Incredible one-man-band creating blistering metal tunes examining Chinese social issues. In Greek, obviously.

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Please get in touch! I'm at jordan@chinatalk.media

Here's my cause exploration essay: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic

Outtro music: Gurrumul, Bayini https://open.spotify.com/track/1XZ9HxC4MiMUUNQ7WKFucM?si=a40c4dfdd71c428e

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• China's long term growth trajectory and implications for national power
• Zambia debt negotiations and Argentina's dollarization
• When strategic trade policy can make sense
• Panda export controls

Sign up here for international intrigue! https://www.internationalintrigue.io/?utm_source=chinatalk&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=1223

Kyla Scanlon of the https://kyla.substack.com/ newsletter cohosts.

Outtro music: I Hear a Rhapsody, Bill Evans and Jim Hall https://open.spotify.com/track/2oEvw0AfrT2fPNpEnBwVml?si=cc9f1add64034de7

Midjourney image: a panda bald eagle combined mystical animal in the style of a traditional chinese painting

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• The eternal chip war
• The battle for AI model supremacy
• EV competition
• Venture investing in China
• PDD and Temu's rise
• TikTok's impressive resilience

Here's ChinaTalk's attempt to benchmark Chinese models https://www.chinatalk.media/p/putting-chinas-top-llms-to-the-test

Outtro music: two songs from my spotify wrapped which are kind of ancillary to crappy US-China relations?

2gether, Mura Masa and Gretel Ganlyn: https://open.spotify.com/track/1Wqd0R1X1tuVK9FySVyLpt?si=48a61ddf3f094b57

No Talk, Lowell: https://open.spotify.com/track/0ToOqwERQswtN1O7AveCU9?si=9424183956b74960

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To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014.

Our conversation gets into:

• What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling;
• Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate;
• The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人;
• What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics;
• How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan;
• What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter;
• And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors.

DPP ticket:

• president: William Lai Ching-te 賴清德
• vice president: Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴

KMT ticket:

• president: Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜
• vice president: Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康

TPP ticket:

• president: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲
• vice president: Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying 吳欣盈

Outro music: 回春丹- 鲜花 https://open.spotify.com/track/35XxW360SO3puJQDfuaY4r

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• How he would fix Congress
• Why the early Cold War is still relevant today
• What he took away from his time in Iraq and the Eisenhower Archives
• Why all you should really do to understand China is listen to ChinaTalk and read our substack (at https://www.chinatalk.media/)

My book rec: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Machines-Modern-Times-Press/dp/0262529319

Outtro music, Ella Fitzgerald, My Cousin in Milwaukee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWy9XjHt324

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Some content we discussed:

• Jade Leung PhD thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665
• Jeff Ding and Jenny Xiao's piece: https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/recent-trends-chinas-llm-landscape
• The Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation

Image made by my mother on DALLE to represent Altman getting fired for the family groupchat.

Outtro music:

• Happy Survival https://open.spotify.com/track/5txZKim1ruceUUhDlU84yc?si=b0d183344163418d
• It'l All Be Over: https://open.spotify.com/track/1KFtR58Hn1nQ9fR0DRnC9n?si=512636c8caf24610

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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• Realistic expectations for bilateral US-China diplomacy
• What are the necessary ingredients for coherent and effective policymaking
• What Matt expects and worries about from a second Trump administration
• Why foundations and corporations should sponsor ChinaTalk!

Outtro music: Time/Breathe Reprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw1bJrFdCjY

Virtual insanity: https://open.spotify.com/track/24SUWisv2lYQiB3bVpE1sn?si=cf1cf18c0bc94ef7

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• Why things do or don't happen in the executive branch
• What reforms we might need to accelerate and amplify decision-making
• Lessons from the sanctions response to the war in Ukraine for China

Check out our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media.

James Brown--Bewildered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXlDeqSTRA

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Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND.

We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on:

• How to design a world-class research organization
• The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s
• Existential risks around AI and bio
• Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy
• What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture

And a ton more.

Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology

Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music:

Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03

Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc

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We get into:

• What AI diplomacy is looking like post-Bletchley Park
• What new applications OpenAI's latest announcements mean for future AI applications

Outtro: Bizarrap with Milo J https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGWa-GO8mKg

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We touch on:

• Immigration and federal hiring
• If AI + bio can ever be a safe thing
• What's going to happen to cloud access
• What are the hoops you'll need to jump through to train GPT5 and whether they're enough
• What to do about open source
• Why Jordan just wants to be an AI czar

RSVP to the Los Angeles meetup! https://partiful.com/e/SgjdajUSrD1aEOOrVgXk

Outro music (yea I was not going to impose Devo on you all): The B Tune by Bela Fleck https://open.spotify.com/track/6h6vvG1t4xtfP9lkOKzBTv?si=6ec3f32629bd46a2

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Jordan came in as a skeptic. Will he be convinced?

Here's the paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03718

Here's Markus' song choice: - -- ・ -・・ ・ ・-・・ ・- https://open.spotify.com/album/1NogWso5ElfJe4n8qKSdy9?si=mD9j5WB3TWuFGVkJRBI_Jg

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Key insights:

• Over ten years after coming to power, Xi is still purging corruption from the military, reflecting his continued lack of trust in the PLA;
• Corruption is historically endemic in the PLA in part because of its incentive structure, which makes graft a prerequisite for rising through the ranks;
• Xi’s efforts to break up the PLA’s supervisory apparatus have only been partially successful (they’re still the same people even if they’re in a different department);
• Amid the anti-corruption shakeup, China’s Rocket Force has been successfully developing hypersonic missiles, technology viewed as critical to countering US intervention in a regional conflict over Taiwan;
• Despite Xi’s apparent distrust of his inner circle of military advisors, an echo chamber–induced invasion of Taiwan is still a live possibility.

Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow with the National Defense University.

Nicholas Welch cohosts.

Outtro Music: The Weeknd's take on Drake's Trust Issues https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVCV6hyv7ac

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• What the deal is with inflation
• How policymaking is broken and what we need to fix it
• How Homer would tackle SBF
• Why goodreads is such a trash website

Outtro music: Chocolate Snow, Inflation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9E6F8xMjoA

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Zohar Atkins of the wonderful Meditations with Zohar podcast alongside Ari Lamm of Bnai Zion come to discuss and process the aftermath of the Oct 7th attack.

Outtro music: Ishay Ribo - Seder Ha'Avoda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECy3CMxShIQ

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Outtro music: Warren G Regulate remix https://soundcloud.com/dj-eric-rhodes/warren-wallen-mashup-final-edit

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To that end, I'm running a guest episode from the Promised Podcast, a show from TLV1 which is "an inside view of how Israel can warm your heart and make your blood boil. It’s a show by a journalist, a professor and an NGO professional who live in and love Israel even though it drives them crazy, and who each week discuss the latest in Israeli politics, culture, and society."

Thanks for listening.

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Our first guest is Carice Witte who is the founder and director of the SIGNAL Group.

Second in the episode is Ofir Dayan, a researcher at the Israel-China Policy Center at INSS.

Outtro music: World Champion, sung by family members and victims of terrorism https://youtu.be/yofkk5Vaif8?si=JskMFXK3-srR5z8L

Lyrics translation:

I'm a world champion in repressing

Anything that scares me, anything stressful, I put on mute

I'm a world champion in loving

Firstly myself, then at the stage and the street

The hardest is to give it to someone close

I'm a world champion in not being

In not solving your problems

Even the pictures on the walls

I wasn't the one who hanged them

I'm only in charge of the melodies

I'm a world champion in falling

And getting back up like a champ

You'll see, like a phoenix

I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on

I'm a world champion in wanting

At least trying

You'll see, how in the end

After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter

I'm a world champion

I'm a world champion in justifying

Weaknesses and desires

The urge is an old acquaintance

I know every old trick it keeps in its bag

But look, someday I'll be righteous

Deep down what I have is not enough, at all

I'm a little rat and life is a pipe1

Falling down the hole because I can't distinguish

Between good and evil, and where does it all lead to

You're being all usual

But soon we'll run out of fuse

I'm a world champion in falling

And getting back up like a champ

You'll see, like a phoenix

I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on

I'm a world champion in wanting

At least trying

You'll see, how in the end

After the losses, the victory is so much sweeter

I'm a world champion

I'm a world champion in compensating

Apologizing and pleasing

Sinning, cleansing myself

Exposing, covering up

Say, how can one write songs with a thousand expectations

Millions of views

I'm a world champion in falling

And getting back up like a champ

You'll see, like a phoenix

I'm burning, but choosing every day to live on

I'm a world champion

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We discuss:

• The nature of national power today;
• If China is peaking;
• How ideology impacts Beijing’s foreign policy;
• Campbell’s hopes and fears for the Biden administration’s Asia policy;
• Whether the US is still aiming to “maintain as large of a lead as possible” on chips and AI;
• How to think about the risk of and effectively deter military escalation;
• And the dark shadow of Tiananmen and its lasting impact on Chinese politics and US foreign policy.

Outtro music: Brahms: Sonata in E flat major for Viola and Piano, Op. 120, No. 2 I. Allegro amabile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYrC4rx5VrA

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• Huawei breakthrough implications and why NVIDIA's CUDA will make it particularly difficult to create a useful domestic AI chip
• Why China's AI companies have been underperforming my expectations
• How semiconductor industry dynamics parallel the challenges facing AI startups
• How pizza machines explain AI's future impact on the labor market
• Challenges and opportunities in investing in deep tech, including the eager but raw founder talent pool as well as the importance of market structure and distinguishing between R&D and engineering risk

This show was brought to you by Creative Ventures.

Creatives Ventures is at https://creativeventures.vc/

James writes at https://weightythoughts.com/ and tweets at @AJamesWang

Outtro Music: the legendary Combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell

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We get into:

• What's really happening with China's economy and why it matters strategically
• How China's potential peak parallels Japan's
• Why the world should and shouldn't be scared of China's progress in semis and EVs
• What another Trump Administration could do for US-China relations
• How Noah actually does his substack

This was a fun one, I hope you enjoy!

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• How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime
• Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years
• What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem
• How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space

Here's my piece on the topic: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/huaweis-breakthrough-the-strategic

And here's Dylan's: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise

Outtro music: 潮州土狗 - 50元的檳榔 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjl2qabfSNs

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• Origins of representative government trace back to medieval England, when the king consulted regional advisors – leading to development of Parliament
• Founders inspired by this model when establishing Congress, wanting representation for diverse parts of young U.S.
• But competing visions emerged for how Congress should work:
• Madison's view: embrace factional conflict and compromise
• Wilson's view: stronger centralized leadership
• These tensions played out through different eras of Congress:
• Early years: backlash against Hamilton’s Treasury power leads to first political party
• New Deal/WWII: Congress oversees executive branch while enabling key programs
• Civil rights era: Senate leaders allow extended filibuster, focus national attention, build enduring coalition
• 1970s reforms decentralize Congress but decrease cooperation between members over time
• Under 1994 Gingrich revolution, partisan centralization becomes norm – embraced by both parties
• Potential futures discussed, including a fever dream of Philip's where an immigration crisis actually prompts real lawmaking.

Outtro music: Nixon's 1972 campaign song

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Matt Sheehan of CIEP returns to discuss the AI regulatory policy process in China!

Matt's paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/10/china-s-ai-regulations-and-how-they-get-made-pub-90117

Outtro music: 曾涵江Cup ：天选 CHOSEN ONE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OB607_3sDYQ

Image: I took an image from Dunhuang and prompted it with "artificial intelligence"

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What was it like to paint in premodern China? How did a husband-wife and master-mentee team up to produce some remarkable art? Why is it okay to say Chinese art is "good" or "bad" while those who critique western art have so much heartburn over saying their opinion?

Cohosting is Joseph Scheier-Dolberg, Chinese paintings curator at the MET.

This episode is better experienced on YouTube. Check out the video on ChinaTalk's YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/Rxr6xOj29A8

Here's the link to the exhibit: https://www.metmuseum.org/exhibitions/learning-to-paint/exhibition-objects

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Treasury document: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/Treasury-ANPRM.pdf

Outtro music: 水碾河南三街 LSGCsikoriot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wzz1Deafh8

Midjourney: used this 18th century Japanese woodprint and prompted it with "quantum semiconductor"

https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55371

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To discuss these questions, I brought on Matt Goodman and Matt Reynolds of CSIS along with Matt Klein of The Overshoot and David Talbot of the Milken Institute.

We discuss:

–Why China uses economic coercion, especially against smaller states.

–How democracies might join together to deter and respond to this aggression.

–Why reslience beats retaliation when it comes to economic conflict.

Outro music: "(You're The) Devil in Disguise," Elvis Presley.

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Here's the playlist:

Intro music: Voision Xi - 'Too Late to Complain' from Five Loops in Her Way. More on that EP here; listen to Voision's jazz record Lost For Words here.

1. Voision Xi - 'Catch the Train' from Eating Music's Running With Friends. More on that compilation here.

2. Vii M - 'Man O' War (Cocoonics remix)' from The Other Side of Sublunary (The Remixes). More on Vii M and Sublunary here.

3. Lygort Trio - '藏身之处' from Lygort Trio. More on them here.

4. Hualun - 'Cities of the Red Night' from Tempus. More on Tempus here.

5. Zhou Shijue - '幸福来的这么自然‘ from 应运而生. More on his record with J-Fever and Eddie Beatz here.

6. 33EMYBW - 'The Unheard Southern Mountains' from Long May the Water Flow. More on that compilation here.

7. Li Daiguo - '小精灵幼儿园放学' from 吥哔呢未来音:奇幻童年.

8. Zhaoze - 'Stand in Wind' from No Answer Blowin' in the Wind. More on that album here.

9. Ὁπλίτης - 'Ὁ τῶν τραυμάτων ἄγγελος' from Τρωθησομένη. More on Hoplites here.

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To discuss, I brought on Dr. Jane Pinelis, Chief AI Engineer The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. She was previously the Chief of the Test, Evaluation, and Assessment branch at the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). Prior to joining the JAIC, Dr. Pinelis served as the Director of Test and Evaluation for USDI’s Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, better known as Project Maven.

Cohosting is Karson Elmgren of CSET.

Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM

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To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!)

We discuss:

• Precisely what we know and don’t know about l’affaire Qin;
• How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities;
• Qin’s possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way;
• How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin’s treatment resembles theirs; and
• Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don’t even know what’s going on!

Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston

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In addition to his teaching responsibilities, Kharis is the program manager of the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific, and previously was the program manager of the Taiwan Democracy and Security Project.

In this show, we discuss:

• The frontrunners’ profiles — Lai Ching-te 賴清德, Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜, and Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 — and what makes this three-way race different from previous elections;
• Why the KMT’s nomination process was somewhat quirky this time around;
• The importance of party unity, and why some Taiwanese political parties have failed to unify in past election cycles;
• What’s on Taiwanese voters’ minds — beyond national-security concerns;
• The CCP’s preferred winner — plus if and how any PRC-based interference may manifest over the coming months;
• Why Taiwan’s election system is “unhackable”;
• What to make of the spread of disinformation and hyper-partisanship in Taiwan’s domestic media;
• And some pro tips on escaping the DC bubble and understanding the Taiwanese populace.

Outro music: Bubble Tea, by Mango Street Papa 芒果街老爸

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• What institutional and cultural factors shape China’s auto market?

• What can Western democracies learn from Chinese industrial policy?

To discuss these questions, I brought on GWU professor John Helveston, an expert in tech and innovation policy and Chinese electric vehicles.

Outro music: 

https://open.spotify.com/track/4QQEzkxcONBthDLfzqIh9S?si=2af235017c8c4449

Photo: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images

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To discuss, this week I brought on Matt Lynley of the fantastic Supervised News substack as well as Lux Capital's Danny Crichton.

Jade Leung's thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665

Outtro music: https://open.spotify.com/track/2opgXfgG4tdM2fuHiamoaG?si=e1eabaf135d846d3

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Unlock Aid wants to see smaller stakeholders get access to more funding and seats at the table. The group’s executive director, Walter Kerr and COO Amanda Arch explain why.

We also discuss:

• How much the US spends on foreign aid each year and who gets that money.
• How to make the distribution of foreign aid more efficient.
• Why Unlock Aid wants to break down the barriers to accessing public funding.
• How AI could be used in foreign aid.
• China’s latest attempts to restrict data access to international researchers.

Outro music: 好了啦 (Piss Off) by 鼓鼓呂思緯 (GBOYSWAG) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D-ixUMcTPY

Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media!

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If you missed his episode back in 2020, give it a listen, too. And check out his recent thoughts posted on NBR, as well as his long-form special report, “Threats to Taiwan’s Security from China’s Military Modernization.”

In this episode, we cover:

• The status quo of Taiwan’s reservist forces and command-and-control capabilities — and how Western countries perceive that status quo;
• How the PLA’s military capabilities stack up against Russia’s performance in the Ukraine war thus far;
• What insights we can glean from PLA-facing propaganda;
• Why Ukrainian forces have been successful in repelling the Russian military thus far, and why Xi Jinping would loathe a protracted war over Taiwan;
• Paul’s take on the PLA’s recent military maneuvers against US and Canadian assets in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea;
• What the Taiwanese populace believes about PLA military action, US military support for Taiwan — and why these trends have changed over time;
• China’s robust satellite expansion program, and how it plays a role in its aircraft carrier “kill chain”;
• Likely and unlikely PLA invasion scenarios — and the corresponding discussions that would occur in the White House;
• What Taiwan military officials — like Admiral Lee Hsi-ming (Ret.) 李喜明 — think about Taiwan’s military readiness for an invasion.

If you liked the podcast, make sure to hop on our newsletter, too! https://www.chinatalk.media

Outro music: 逆光 - Kimberley Chen 陳芳語 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDw1B_hWwbw

This interview was taped on June 16, 2023, in Taipei.

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Outtro music: Repo Man, Coup d'etat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJjuVzZQj0U

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What happened, why does it matter, and does this make it any less likely we'll be in WWIII anytime soon?

Do discuss, I bought on Dali Yang, political science professor at UChicago, and Nathaniel Sher of Carnegie.

Subscribe to ChinaTalk at https://chinatalk.substack.com/!

Outtro music (a two-parter!):

Selena Gomez: Lose You to Love Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlJDTxahav0

Beyonce: Start Over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJAXC1lz65I

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Farmer show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fklN-OnYuGc

Dongbei show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xs0OJVemJz4

Animated show: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL0gnw1pNh6C1yA3EUU-aQrOjI3hvBC7oQ

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