FICC Focus

Masters of the Muniverse: New York City and the Market’s Future

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 11:02:00 -0000

New York’s shifting political environment has significant implications for the city’s finances and municipal bond portfolios. In this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, Pat Luby, head of municipal research and senior municipal strategist at CreditSights, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Gastall, head of municipal research and strategy, and BI senior associate Karen Altamirano. Luby also shares his views on the growing importance of muni ETFs, new-issue volume trends, and what they could mean for issuers and investors.

Macro Matters: Jerome Schneider on Funding Market Risks

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 18:37:00 -0000

Funding markets have remained remarkably calm even as investors continue to debate risks around Federal Reserve balance-sheet policy and the outlook for repo. Jerome Schneider, managing director at Pimco and head of short-term portfolio management and funding, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI US and Canadian rates strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Schneider discusses why the funding backdrop looks more resilient than in past stress episodes, how the Fed’s backstops have changed the market’s risk profile and where he still sees pockets of illiquidity. The three also examine the tradeoffs between money-market funds and ultra-short strategies, how investors are using front-end products during bouts of volatility and what mandatory central clearing could mean for repo market structure.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Around the World of Global Credit in 60 Minutes

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 05:00:00 -0000

Global credit risk has been repriced wider and tighter by the Iran war and strategic insights are essential for outperformance. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Reto Bachmann (Structured Credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share takeaways on their recent research, relative value and major themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

EM Lens: Identifying Alpha Opportunities in EM Fixed Income

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 13:45:00 -0000

Creditors are returning to emerging market fixed income as supply-demand technicals are supportive, rating momentum is positive and real-yield differentials are wide. Thys Louw, emerging market fixed income portfolio manager at Ninety One, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to discuss alpha potential in EM hard- and local-currency debt. Louw and Sassower assess the allocation gap among institutional investors and the effect of rising cross-asset correlations on EM fixed income returns.

Credit Crunch: Saturna’s Drum on Sukuk Growth, Geopolitical Risk

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 10:30:00 -0000

“The market reaction has been very measured. Spreads have clearly moved in response to changes in fiscal outlooks and ratings,” says Patrick Drum, Saturna Capital’s fixed-income lead and portfolio manager, discussing the impact of current events in the Middle East on sukuk and the Islamic finance market. It’s “not so much the conflict itself. Tension is really back to the basics of balance sheet.” Drum joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest Credit Crunch podcast to examine sukuk, the market’s size, composition and growth, and the economic backdrop that has helped drive it beyond $1 trillion. The episode also covers risk-adjusted returns, underlying assets and his view of the market’s continued evolution.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Investor Survey 2Q - Iran, Rates, Dollar vs. Euro

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 13:14:00 -0000

Credit and high yield had first quarter losses due to the Iran war impact, especially on rates. Will 2Q revert those losses, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 2Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with Manuel Schoeffler, Head of High Yield at Deka Investment GmbH. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

State of Distressed Debt: Weber, Aguirre on Attaining Owner DNA

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 12:43:00 -0000

“Troubled businesses don’t turn around on a dime. They took years to get messed up. They got worse through the restructuring when they were capital-starved,” observed Jon F. Weber, founder of Jon F Weber & Co. “A lender should not have the expectation that, upon pouring in liquidity and improving the capital structure, they’re going to immediately improve. We’re in the reality business... We have to establish what can be realistically achieved with a 70%-80% probability and align awards, budgets and all of those things around those outcomes.” Weber and Jon F Weber & Co. board director Alvaro Aguirre shared their well-honed insights with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel, as they delved into their recent paper, “From Creditor to Owner: Adapting an Ownership Playbook.” They highlight the need for lenders to act swiftly and decisively to prepare for potential ownership, as well as the common pitfalls that can arise during this transition. The podcast concludes (1:02:40) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Balluku and Brendel to discuss the latest developments in Hertz, First Brands, New Fortress Energy, Multi-Color Corp., Serta and Telesat. JFW &Co.'s paper may be found here:

https://jonfweber.com/thought-leadership/f/from-creditor-to-owner-adopting-an-ownership-playbook

Macro Matters: Fed Past & Future with BNY's Reinhart

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 20:44:00 -0000

The Federal Reserve still has an easing bias and may lower rates another 50 bps this year, says Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for BNY Investments, on this edition of Macro Matters in the FICC Focus podcast series. Reinhart joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss BNY Investments’ view on the economy and central bank actions as uncertainty remains high around energy prices. The two discuss the economic backdrop and how the path of nominal growth may remain steady even as the inflation/real growth mix shifts. Reinhart also discusses the cadence of work while he was with the Fed’s Monetary Affairs staff and as secretary of the Federal Open Market Committee.

FX Moment: Iran War Shift First Step Out of Sterling Bear Cycle

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 18:07:00 -0000

The US-Iran ceasefire and associated relief in risk aversion and pullback in oil prices may be a first step out of the sterling-dollar bear cycle of the past few weeks. There will be cyclical relief as the market adjusts back to less hawkish Bank of England rate expectations, which were hurting the pound via the stagflation narrative. Structural relief may also emerge, as the expected monetary-fiscal policy mix implies less reliance on fiscal stimulus to support the economy and reduces fiscal credibility concerns that have become a constant consideration for sterling. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Bloomberg Economics Chief UK Economist Dan Hanson discuss the U-turn in Bank of England rate and growth expectations in the context of the Iran conflict, fiscal policy, as well as how UK politics could shape sterling’s near- to mid-term dynamics.

EM Lens: Seeking Solace Ahead of the IMF’s Spring Meetings

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 10:30:00 -0000

Sovereign balance sheets should come under renewed pressure as the war-induced oil shock forces EM governments to take extraordinary measures aimed at actively defending their domestic economies. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the risks facing EM creditors as the war in Iran endures. Natalucci and Sassower differentiate between level and trend when discussing the medium-term impact on EM growth and inflation expectations, with potential for yields to decline once recession probabilities reach critical mass.

Macro Matters: The Auto ABS Landscape With BI’s Chadehumbe

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:26:00 -0000

Wider spreads and credit enhancement causing upgrades in auto asset-backed securities reduces the sector’s risk against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist. Chadehumbe joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s US Rates Strategist to discuss the findings from the first ABS Primer on available on the terminal. Though spreads are tight compared to the five-year average, inflation may not cause spreads to widen. The note also makes the case for Auto ABS against similarly rated and maturity corporate debt. Chadehumbe isn’t concerned about the current level of subprime delinquencies given the credit enhancement these structures have, but is concerned with the job market and what happens if delinquencies rise much further.

All Options Considered: Iran War, Hormuz and Market Tails

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 11:32:00 -0000

Cross-asset markets are under stress given the bi-modal risks of de-escalation vs. prolonged conflict. This edition of All Options Considered podcast discusses the probability distribution around the outcomes of the Iran war and markets. BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Edward Fishman, author of Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare and Senior Fellow at Council on Foreign Relations.

Credit Crunch: GSAM’s McClain on High Yield Risks, Resilience

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 14:57:00 -0000

“Technicals for high yield post-Covid have been very strong, with pretty limited net new supply, minimal downgrades, strong demand given elevated base rates and pretty reasonable credit spread,” says John McClain, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s global co-head of High Yield and Bank Loans. “We’re seeing some net new supply from areas like data-center debt,” and “large LBO bonds that are coming over the next couple of weeks, in conjunction with a couple of decent sized cap stacks migrating to high yield will probably lead to some indigestion in the marketplace.” McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest Credit Crunch podcast to discuss data-center vs. software issuance, private credit knock-on effects and where to find value in the current market.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Monroe’s Uddin on Software, Middle-Market Lending

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 10:30:00 -0000

“The thesis of AI is very big. It’s probably one of the largest events in at least my lifetime,” says Monroe President Zia Uddin, discussing the creditor concerns about how AI may affect borrowers. “But what ends up happening is everyone kind of throws the baby out with the bathwater.” Uddin joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about why not all software is created equal when it comes to AI exposure, as well as the benefits of originating deals and having navigated prior cycles when it comes to responding to market volatility. Uddin also discusses the large domestic opportunity, growth areas for the firm, the current interest rate climate, the varied risk profiles of large vs. mid-market lenders and retail vs. institutional needs.

Macro Matters: Fed Communications With Bloomberg’s Mike McKee

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 18:44:00 -0000

The atmosphere around the Federal Reserve has evolved as Chair Jerome Powell has grown more comfortable in press conferences, even amid legal and political pressure. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News international economics and policy correspondent, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI US and Canadian rates strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series to discuss this and other issues. The conversation explores the future of Fed communications, including debate over the SEP and dot plot, whether a Kevin Warsh chairmanship could bring fewer public remarks from officials, and what changes might be realistic for the balance sheet, bank regulation and the Fed’s broader mandate. They also examine dissents at the FOMC, how different types of policymakers adapt once inside the institution, and why this year’s semiannual monetary policy testimony may not occur before Powell leaves office.

Credit Crunch: Proskauer’s Boyko on Outcomes in Private Credit

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 13:08:00 -0000

“What’s different in private credit versus large broadly syndicated loans is in private credit they’re very focused on the ability to incur additional debt, the ability to distribute assets or distribute money through dividends or otherwise,” says Stephen Boyko, partner and co-founder of Proskauer’s Private Credit Group. “They’re also incredibly concerned about the flexibility of the documents.” Boyko joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the evolution of private credit and private credit documentation, why current headlines are inconsistent with market trends and lender protections. The two also discuss key covenants, the incidence of default and the growing bias toward higher-Ebitda borrowers.

State of Distressed Debt: Davis Polk’s Resnick on Emerging LME Trends

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 10:30:00 -0000

“The theme that we’re seeing a lot of is, do we do the same old LME that we would have done six months ago or a year ago, or should we do more of a comprehensive fixing of the balance sheet once?” says Brian Resnick, a restructuring partner and head of Davis Polk’s Liability Management & Special Opportunities practice, discussing trends in liability management strategies as borrowers prepare for looming 2028 debt maturities. On this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Resnick joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore the growing consideration of more aggressive, one-shot deleveraging transactions and the advantages for lenders within the “in-crowd.” They also discuss the implications of banks expanding into private credit, what happens if anti-cooperation language gains traction, and the increasing sophistication of disqualified lender provisions. The podcast was recorded at the 22nd annual Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference.

Macro Matters: Central Banks With BE’s Wong, BI’s Worthington

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 22:27:00 -0000

The soaring short-term yields in the UK may be somewhat overdone, says Bloomberg Intelligence European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. BI’s US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey and Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joined him on a webinar the morning of March 19 to discuss the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the European Central Bank meetings and the ramifications for rate markets. The trio also discuss some scenarios that were asked during the live Q&A portion of the webinar, and highlight how oil is currently forcing central banks to rethink inflation forecasts.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

EM Lens: Shifting to Second Derivatives in EM Sovereign Debt

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:01:00 -0000

Emerging market central banks have adopted a hawkish bias following the war-induced oil shock, yet fiscal concerns could weigh on domestic currencies as local governments attempt to mitigate the negative impact of rising energy prices. Cem Karacadag, head of global sovereign debt at Barings, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, on this episode of the EM Lens podcast to assess portfolio risk, country exposure and institutional interest in the wake of the war in Iran. Karacadag and Sassower discuss issues ranging from curve shape and currency volatility to spread resilience and safe-haven positioning.

Credit Crunch: AGL’s Comer on CLOs, Active Management and Growth

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 10:30:00 -0000

“We traditionally have turned over about 60% of the portfolio per year,” says AGL Credit Management’s Chief Operating Officer Wynne Comer, discussing the company’s approach to managing collateralized loan obligations. “That’s 30% through prepayments, 30% through active management.” Comer joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the evolution of the CLO market past and present, her transition from banking into asset management, AGL’s extension into private credit and the outlook for continued growth. Comer also explores due diligence, the state of regulation, where bonds play in the CLO market and factoring for AI.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

EM Lens: War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren’t Kind to EM Economies

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 10:30:00 -0000

Emerging market governments are implementing extraordinary measures to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices, as the war-induced oil shock stirs stagflation pressures and pushes most asset classes lower. Gustavo Medeiros, head of EM research at Ashmore Group, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist on this episode of the EM Lens podcast to assess underlying risks and potential opportunities should the war in Iran endure. Medeiros and Sassower focus on structural factors such as terms of trade and energy price pass-through when discussing the medium-term impact on EM growth and inflation expectations.

Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Scenarios with BNY’s Granet

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 18:09:00 -0000

The yield curve may continue its steepening trend, with recent flattening just a cyclical retracement, Jason Granet, CIO of BNY says on this Macro Matter’s episode of the FICC Focus podcast series. Granet joins co-hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest-Rate Strategy team to discuss the state of the economy, how BNY assesses the outlook and how it thinks about sizing risk. The focus turns to Federal Reserve policy, the Treasury yield curve and funding markets.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Iran War, Software Rout and Credit a Safe Haven

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 15:01:00 -0000

Credit suffered a software loan wobble and private credit contagion before the war in Iran, but it’s been a safe haven vs. rates and equities since hostilities started. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, global head of credit strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence and Sarah Harrison, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, discuss their prognosis on the war, reflect on how various credit classes fared during the technology supply wave and software wobble and then contrast credit performance with rates and equities since the Iran war began. They also discuss supply and relative value across high grade, high yield and loan markets, along with the road ahead amid this volatility.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

State of Distressed Debt: Moelis’ Murray on Private Credit Workouts

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 11:30:00 -0000

“The goal is to set the company up for longer-term success,” explained Rachel Murray, managing director at Moelis & Co. “If we’re solving quarter-to-quarter, you’re probably not investing in the business as you should; there’s distractions for management, it’s putting more pressure on the business, and frankly, probably their peers and competitors are going after their customers and creating noise.” In her conversation (7:40) with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel at the 22nd annual Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference, Murray explored how private credit’s growth and heavy dependence on relationships alter the restructuring dynamic, relative to traditional large cap leveraged finance workouts. This episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast concludes (31:40) with BI’s Noel Hebert joining Negisa and Phil to discuss the latest developments in First Brands, Saks, Multi-Color Corp., Ardagh Group and Serta.

Masters of the Muniverse: MMA Founder Doe on Prediction Markets

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 11:30:00 -0000

Prediction markets may revolutionize the municipal bond industry by improving credit transparency, trading efficiencies, hedging strategies and portfolio management. On the inaugural episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, MMA founder Tom Doe and Bloomberg Intelligence’s new head of municipal research and strategy, Matthew Gastall, discuss the possibilities and promise of prediction markets. They also explore potential policy actions in regions exposed to the greatest infrastructure and energy risks.

The Masters of the Muniverse podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Macro Matters: DC Policy Update With BI’s Nathan Dean

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:22:00 -0000

It’s surprising that the Basel III Endgame proposal may raise bank capital requirements 3-7% given that President Donald Trump’s mantra is deregulation, says Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst. Dean joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, to discuss the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s stablecoin proposal implementing the Genius Act, along with open questions around rewards, yield and the Clarity Act. They also discuss the state of the Basel III endgame and related proposals that could reshape global systemically important bank capital through 2027, how tariff authority is shifting after a Supreme Court ruling — and why litigation may be the next battleground — and what the November midterms could mean for legislative gridlock, investigations and policy path dependence. There’s also a quick detour to Ira’s World Cup picks.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

All Options Considered: Middle East Conflict, What Markets Are Missing

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 18:24:00 -0000

As conflict escalates across the Middle East, the dominant frameworks for reading Iran, its system, its strategy, and its staying power are widely misunderstood.
BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Professor Anoush Ehteshami, International Relations in the School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University, to examine the geopolitical backdrop and its transmission into financial markets. The podcast is moderated by Karima Fenaoui, BI's Research Content Officer.

FX Moment: Iran War and Assessing the Shifting Dollar Narrative

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:43:00 -0000

The Iran war challenges Bloomberg Intelligence’s early 2026 dollar bear view via two key channels. First, the large-scale risk-off move over the past few sessions has revived the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, reinforcing that in a broad-based flight-to-safety backdrop the greenback comes out stronger. Second, if the recent oil-price surge persists, it could lift global inflation and force markets to rethink expected 2H Fed rate cuts, weakening the yield-driven case for a softer dollar.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI’s Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu discuss how higher oil prices can also support the dollar vs. the euro or yen through the net oil exporter vs. net oil importer dynamic. They also revisit BI’s strong Asia FX convictions from early 2026, including a still-supportive yuan outlook.

Credit Crunch: IR+M’s Gubitosi on Corporates, Securitized Value

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 11:30:00 -0000

“You can still find some attractive value within the front end of the securitized curve,” says Income Research + Management’s Co-Chief Investment Officer Jim Gubitosi, when discussing the relative value within US spread assets. Gubitosi joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the scaling of assets and strategies at IR+M, an active approach to security selection, the current credit climate for corporates and structured debt, and how market technicals may be contributing to recent resilience.

Macro Matters: SFVegas Recap with BI’s MBS Strategist Adelberg

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 20:50:00 -0000

The cadence of announcements about housing affordability and deregulation may accelerate into the midterm elections in November, Bloomberg Intelligence chief MBS strategist Erica Adelberg says. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Adelberg joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, to discuss key takeaways from the Structured Finance Association’s conference held Feb. 22-25 in Las Vegas. They explore GSE reforms, regulatory changes, shifts in credit scoring used while processing mortgage applications and the use of AI in the mortgage process. They also cover the talk around the health of the economy and why few expect a recession in the foreseeable future.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Around the World of Global Credit in 60 Minutes

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 08:48:00 -0000

Global credit markets are tight, and strategic insights are essential for performance. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share takeaways on their recent research, relative value and major themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG.

EM Lens: Cyclical Sweet Spot for EM Persists, Dollar a Key Risk

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 11:40:00 -0000

Emerging market fixed income is off to another strong start in 2026, with scope for further upside as long as the dollar cooperates and cross-asset volatility remains low. Christian Lawrence, chief cross-asset strategist at Cooperative Rabobank, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to discuss investor positioning, currency hedging and event risk. They discuss drivers of institutional demand, including yield differentials, terms of trade, artificial intelligence and geopolitical developments.

Macro Matters: US Rates Outlook With Goldman’s Marshall

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 17:00:00 -0000

News from the labor market and on the inflation front has been consistent with a fairly low-volatility environment, says Will Marshall, Goldman Sachs head of US Rates Strategy. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Marshall joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, to discuss rate volatility’s move lower, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary and balance sheet policy, the Treasury yield curve and the relationship of swap spreads and Treasury yields. They also examine Goldman’s outlook for Treasury supply.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Wellington's Bannister Talks Private Credit 2.0

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 11:30:00 -0000

"Helping... investors to really understand what they could get in these markets is helpful because I think it is where our economy is moving, and we all want to be able to benefit from that growth," says Wellington's Director of Private Credit Emily Bannister, when discussing the shift to privately owned companies. Bannister joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about public-private convergence, leveraging Wellington's deep public market history, transitional real estate and growth equity. The two also touch on private credit in oil infrastructure, and positioning the business for growth.

Credit Crunch: Investor Survey 1Q - Fed, Earnings, Tech Supply

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 14:15:00 -0000

Credit and high yield had a good 2025 despite tariffs and rate volatility, as spreads held their ground. Will 1Q sustain this resilience, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 1Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with Ashwin Palta, global high yield PM at BNY Investments Newton. They discuss tight spreads, Fed actions and impending US tech sector supply into Europe, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

FX Moment: Assessing Narratives That Take the Euro Past $1.20

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 18:15:00 -0000

The G-10 FX narrative has mainly been dollar- and structurally driven year-to-date, while euro headlines have been sidelined. This could change into 2H as European fiscal stimulus starts to lift the region’s economic narrative and validates the ECB-driven relative yield advantage into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Constantin Bolz, Head of G-10 FX for UBS’s Chief Investment Office, focus on the euro side of the bullish euro-dollar view and how a cautiously optimistic euro macro narrative can be consistent with a euro-dollar break of $1.20. They also present their strongest G-10 FX convictions for the year — on pro-cyclical currencies including the Aussie dollar and the Norwegian krone — and touch on expected Swiss franc and yen fortunes for 2026.

State of Distressed Debt: Andrew Milgram on Middle-Market Opportunity

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 18:47:00 -0000

“It is the inconsistency of decisions which oftentimes bedevils a company’s ultimate success. You create that consistency. You can also push decisioning down from the C-suite into the next operating level. That creates dynamism and speed in decision-making. Speed in decision-making creates faster turns in the capital in the business,” says Andrew Milgram, managing partner and chief investment officer of Marblegate Asset Management. Milgram discusses how his firm works with portfolio companies to improve processes for better operational outcomes in this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. In his hour-plus conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel, Milgram shares his perspective on how Marblegate’s direct-investing approach and focus on the middle market de-emphasizes the credit cycle. He also discusses First Brands Group, liability management exercises and his outlook for 2026. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining to break down the latest legal developments at First Brands and Serta, followed by a discussion with Brendel and Hebert around Saks’ DIP battle with Amazon and Axonic.

Credit Crunch: Apollo’s Matt Nord on Hybrid Growth, Opportunity

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 14:36:00 -0000

“Hybrid is the ultimate in creative solutions,” says Apollo’s co-head of equity and head of hybrid, Matt Nord, when discussing the firm’s fast-growing hybrid strategy and the types of solutions that may allow it to triple in scale over the coming years. Nord joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about controlling for downside, the benefits of scale and why the lack of realizations across private equity is creating a need for more tailored funding solutions. The two also discuss Apollo’s investment ethos, including its value orientation and pursuit of “excess return per unit of risk.”

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

All Options Considered: Japan's Election and Market Implications

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 00:00:00 -0000

The Japanese bond market has experienced significant volatility and increased currency intervention risks this year. Ahead of the snap election in which the prime minister is seeking a renewed mandate, this edition of the All Options Considered podcast features BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu in conversation with Kristi Govella, Associate Professor of Japanese Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford. They discuss Japanese politics, the fiscal outlook and implications for the market.

Macro Matters: MBS Update With BI’s Erica Adelberg

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 22:08:00 -0000

Housing affordability challenges are a feature, not a bug, Bloomberg Intelligence chief MBS strategist Erica Adelberg says. On this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Adelberg joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, to discuss Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, recent proposals aimed at improving affordability for first-time home buyers and shifts in her views on relative value in the MBS market. Adelberg notes that efforts by the Federal Reserve or US government to address housing affordability could raise longer-term risks.

Credit Crunch: Lazard’s Whittaker, Howard on EU Stress, Advisory

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 11:30:00 -0000

“There’s no binary differentiation between capital solutions and restructuring anymore,” says Lazard’s co-head of Europe Restructuring and Liability Management, Sam Whittaker, when discussing the continuum of solutions available to debtors under stress. Whittaker and Lazard’s co-head of European Debt Advisory and Capital Solutions, Tom Howard, joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the current stressed and distressed landscape in Europe, sectors of concern, the evolution of balance-sheet solutions and documentation flexibility. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Beach Point’s Hunsaker on Structured Landscape

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 11:30:00 -0000

“We’ll risk-manage the portfolios such that, when beta is an uncompelling opportunity set, we have more risk-management overlays in place. And luckily, where we are today with the short rebate that you get paid to borrow and short bonds, it’s not that much of an opportunity cost,” says Beach Point Capital Portfolio Manager and Head of Structured Credit Benjamin Hunsaker, discussing limited excess-return prospects in the context of long-short strategies. Hunsaker joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to explore the climate in consumer and mortgage-backed credit products, the effect of policy headlines, supply-side housing issues and opportunities in commercial real estate.

Macro Matters: Morgan Stanley’s Hornbach on Dollar, Yield Curve

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 20:07:00 -0000

A currency is like the equity of a country, so the dollar’s recent decline is akin to a drop in the stock of the US, says Morgan Stanley Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach. He joins this edition of Macro Matters, part of the FICC Focus podcast series with co-hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest Rate Strategy team, to discuss the US and global economic and central-bank outlooks. The trio examine how these may affect currencies, yield curves and risk assets across G3+ markets.

Macro Matters: Europe-US Divestment Concerns Look Overstated

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 19:49:00 -0000

Americans seem to be overreacting to concerns that European investors might divest from US assets, Bloomberg Intelligence chief European interest rate strategist Huw Worthington says. On this edition of the Macro Matters podcast, Worthington joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, to discuss global rates volatility and how European countries might be able to respond financially to recent policy initiatives. They also exchange views on upcoming central bank meetings relative to pricing.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

State of Distressed Debt: 2026 Outlook, STG, First Brands, Hertz

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 20:24:00 -0000

Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed Debt hosts Noel Hebert, Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku explore what 2026 may have in store for the leveraged finance markets. Noel and Phil open the podcast by discussing the scarcity of distressed opportunities as high yield spreads test all-time tights, with would-be catalysts for a reversal repeatedly shrugged off by a seemingly invincible credit rally. Negisa then breaks down the latest legal developments in newly bankrupt STG Logistics, First Brands and United Site Services. Phil shares his first-day thoughts on Saks Global Enterprises’ Chapter 11 filing. The podcast concludes with Negisa’s take on the fallout from the Supreme Court’s denial of Hertz’s petition for review and Phil’s thoughts on Ardagh’s Chapter 15 filing.

Credit Crunch: Leveraged Loan, Private Credit, CLO Outlook 2026

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 08:00:00 -0000

Private credit is becoming an alternative to loan financing and CLOs are driving most loan supply. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence and Paul Mehta, Leveraged Credit Portfolio Manager at Aberdeen Investments, reflect on how both the US and European leveraged loan markets fared and on the outlook for loans in 2026. They discuss BI’s leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth relative to the bond market using Bloomberg loan and bond indexes. They also address private credit in detail including financing premiums, sizes and risks along with the outlook for CLO issuance, reinvestment risks, arbitrage evolution and implications for 2026.

All Options Considered: Equity Derivatives Dynamics With UBS

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 17:03:00 -0000

SPX correlation is historically low, while the average single-stock volatility is elevated amid AI momentum. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Maxwell Grinacoff, Head of US Equity Derivatives Research at UBS. They discuss the dynamics of equity volatility, growth of derivative-based ETFs, shift in product composition and option flow as a source of market dislocations.

Macro Matters: Ample Reserves and Fed Stigma With Darrell Duffie

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 20:26:00 -0000

The quantity of reserves is now determined by the amount necessary to run the payment system, says Darrell Duffie, a professor at Stanford University. On the Macro Matters podcast, Duffie joins hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s US and Canada rates strategist, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s policy implementation framework. They cover ongoing shifts in balance-sheet policy and a return to net Treasury purchases, changes to the US banking and payments systems and what those mean for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. They also touch on the nuanced challenges posed by stigma around the Fed’s lending facilities.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Axar’s Axelrod on Zombie Owners and Credit Cycle

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 12:58:00 -0000

“Time can be a good thing. Time can be a very bad thing…I think the whole market moves a bit slower now when there are problems in terms of how those problems get dealt with,” says Axar Capital founder & CEO Andrew Axelrod when discussing the evolution in markets away from mark-to-market investment vehicles. Axelrod joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about how he sees the current credit backdrop, whether the 4Q credit flare-ups are cockroach, canary or just commonplace, and the challenges to recoveries from zombie owners.

FX Moment: Brown Brothers Harriman's Haddad on G10 FX in 2026

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 12:50:00 -0000

The 2026 dollar bear view is at the mercy of confirmed Fed dovishness, with the different stages of respective G10 monetary policy cycles likely to shape currency performances this year. If this is your central working assumption, then the case for dollar-yen downside becomes more compelling again, as does our Australian dollar bullish bias. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Brown Brothers Harriman Global Head of Markets Strategy Elias Haddad discuss their currency views for 2026, focusing on the key drivers and strongest G10 FX convictions. Haddad confirms a dollar-yen bearish case, while Childe-Freeman believes that the bullish Aussie view from 4Q25 can extend this year.

Macro Matters: 2026 US Economic Drivers With CFB’s Shulyatyeva

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 20:59:00 -0000

The Conference Board isn’t expecting a recession, but Yelena Shulyatyeva, the research group’s senior US economist, anticipates a meaningful slowdown in consumer spending. On this Macro Matters podcast, Shulyatyeva joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US rates strategist, and BI senior US and Canada rates strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the outlook for the US economy and its drivers in 2026. They talk about risks to the inflation profile, including the state of pass-through inflation from tariffs, and the path for core services. They also hit on AI’s directional impact to productivity, geopolitical risks and potential shifts to Federal Reserve independence narratives.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

EM Lens: Between a Rally and a Hard Place in EM Local Rates

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 11:39:00 -0000

EM local government bond valuations look less appealing as we enter 2026, with cross-asset volatility poised to rise from historically low levels. Phoenix Kalen, global head of emerging market research at Société Générale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to discuss her year-ahead outlook for EM local rates and foreign exchange. Kalen and Sassower discuss investor positioning as we near the end of the EM monetary-easing cycle, with sentiment starting to fade amid potential for wider growth differentials between the US and Europe.

Credit Crunch: NISA’s Eichhorn on Alpha and Liability Management

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 11:30:00 -0000

“All alpha is excess return, not all excess return is alpha,” says NISA CEO and Head of Investment Strategies David Eichhorn when discussing the use of appropriate benchmarks to measure performance and beta masking as alpha. Eichhorn joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about hedging liabilities and utilizing derivative overlays, targeting high information ratios and being a liquidity provider, and the evolution in liability management. The current rate backdrop and funded status for defined benefit plans, as well as leverage costs for BDCs are also discussed. Pensions & Investments (P&I) rankings were based on U.S. institutional,
tax-exempt assets managed internally (covered for overlay) as of December 31, 2024; published on June 16, 2025. NISA paid a standard fee to access the full set of data published by P&I. Other survey participants may have reported overlay strategies on a basis other than notional values and, as such, direct comparison and rankings may not be appropriate. Visit www.pionline.com<https://www.pionline.com> for more details, including past rankings and methodology.

FICC Focus Special: High Yield Outlook

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 11:30:00 -0000

As part of Bloomberg Intelligence’s 2026 Fixed Income Markets Outlook: Opportunity Amid Policy Uncertainty event, this panel examines the outlook for junk bond yields and total returns, consumer health, the role of private credit and top sector picks. Stephen Flynn, senior telecom and media credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, moderates a discussion with Winnie Cisar, global head of strategy at CreditSights, John McClain, global co-head of high yield at Goldman Sachs and Meghan Robson, head of US credit strategy and desk analyst at BNP Paribas.

FICC Focus Special: Panel Discusses Investment Grade Outlook

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 13:32:00 -0000

This special edition of the FICC Focus podcast features the recording of a Dec. 4 panel discussion exploring investment grade spreads, issuance and strategies to outperform in the year ahead. Moderated by Rob Schiffman, senior technology and internet credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the conversation features Meghan Graper, global head of debt capital markets at Barclays, Amanda Lynam, head of macro credit research at BlackRock, and Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at Lafayette College. The panel gathered as part of Bloomberg Intelligence’s 2026 Fixed Income Markets Outlook: Opportunity Amid Policy Uncertainty event.

State of Distressed Debt: Latham's Sobolewski on Debtor Playbook

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 11:30:00 -0000

“Ad hoc groups are decades old at this point. Co-ops are new. Since when do we have to promise to be friends? I think [co-ops] are inherently lame.” John Sobolewski, Partner and Global Chair of Latham & Watkins' Liability Management Practice, sat down with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Philip Brendel at the Beard Group’s 2025 Distressed Investing Conference on Dec. 2. John shared his views on the LME landscape’s evolution and direction, jurisdictional considerations, and why he suspects the pervasiveness of cooperation agreements results from unhealthy lender distrust and advisers’ self-interest.

Credit Crunch: KKR’s Pietrzak on Asset-Based Finance, AI Impact

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 11:30:00 -0000

“There’s some articles out there that [suggest] once there’s losses, there could be a bunch of fire sales of assets ... not true,” says KKR Partner and Global Head of Private Credit Daniel Pietrzak when discussing misunderstandings about private credit markets. “We’ve got $131 billion of AUM. Almost none of that has any redemption feature.” Pietrzak joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about volatility, continued market growth – especially in asset-based finance – and strategic partnerships like the company’s recent deals with Harley-Davidson and PayPal. They also examine global opportunities, how AI factors into lending decisions and the benefits of diversification.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

EM Lens: Event Risk Set to Rise Yet EM Should Still Outperform

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 11:31:00 -0000

Event risk is poised to increase across the emerging-market fixed income landscape, as creditors must contend with elections in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel and Peru. Elina Theodorakopoulou, managing director and EM portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to decompose year-to-date performance in emerging-market debt and set performance targets for 2026. Theodorakopoulou and Sassower touch on topics ranging from fiscal spending and monetary stimulus to new issuance and credit rating migration.

FICC Special: Harbor’s Litton Talks US Commercial Real Estate

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 12:16:00 -0000

US commercial real estate is set to keep stabilizing in 2026 as liquidity improves and capitalization rates decline. Harbor Group International President Richard Litton joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief fixed-income strategist, Damian Sassower, to discuss his company’s approach to asset management amid an affordability crunch that shows no sign of abating in the year ahead. Litton and Sassower discuss the various loan types and financial structures that institutional investors can access across the US commercial real estate market.

Credit Crunch: Around the World of Global Credit in 60 Minutes

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 17:10:00 -0000

Global credit markets are tight, and strategic insights are essential looking into 2026. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's global head of credit strategy, hosts BI's global credit strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Reto Bachmann (Structured Finance), himself (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share takeaways on their market outlook, relative value and major themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Global BIFX Team Shares Strongest FX Views into 2026: FX Moment

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 17:09:00 -0000

The Fed and yield-driven bearish US dollar view remains our central working assumption into 2026, yet this could be a bumpy run depending on how US economic and inflation data evolve throughout the year. Beyond the dollar outlook, we touch on a compelling bullish Aussie view, look into the Hungarian forint appeal, as well as expected yuan and Malaysia ringgit outperformance in Asia FX. In Latam FX, we see possible outperformance for the Mexican peso vs the Brazilian Real.

In the last episode of FX Moment of the year, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and her team, Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu, Asia FX Strategist Chunyu Zhang, EMEA EM FX and Rates Strategist Sergei Voloboev and Senior Latam FX Strategist Davison Santana present their strongest FX conviction into 2026.

State of Distressed Debt: Jennifer Selendy on LME Battles, Antitrust

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 11:35:00 -0000

“You’re in the realm of the antitrust principles and the vapors that come off the big antitrust cases. I was very skeptical of the idea of a single company’s debt instrument … being a product market,” says Jennifer Selendy, founding partner of Selendy Gay, discussing how the latest legal challenges in Altice and Selecta to creditor cooperation agreements in the liability management sector stand on the very periphery of the antitrust doctrine. In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku on this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Selendy also discusses her involvement in the early days of LME litigation, in-court lessons and surprises, and the Incora saga. Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert, Phil Brendel and Negisa discuss their outlooks for 2026. The podcast concludes with a discussion on the latest developments at Hertz, First Brands, Ardagh Group and Azul.

The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Macro Matters: BI Rates 2026 US Treasury Market Outlook

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 20:44:00 -0000

The Federal Reserve may cut its benchmark rate below 3% next year, bull steepening the yield curve beyond what’s priced into forwards, says Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist. Jersey is joined by BI US and Canada rates strategist Will Hoffman on this episode of the Macro Matters podcast to discuss the BI Rates team’s recently released 2026 US Treasury Market Outlook. The pair discuss the state and direction of the US economy and how Fed interest-rate and balance-sheet policies are likely to shift. They also touch on the supply-and-demand outlook for the Treasury market, as well as relative value across the yield curve.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Views from Above - How to Think Credit at Tights?

Fri, 28 Nov 2025 12:15:00 -0000

Credit is tight and entering 2026 in uncertain times. Bloomberg’s London Credit Outlook event addressed this theme in depth and was recorded for this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast. Host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, was a panelist on the macro panel, along with Iain Stealey, International CIO Global Fixed Income, JPMorgan Asset Management and Ashwin Palta, Global High Yield Fund Manager, Newton Investment Management, and Bruce Douglas, team leader, leveraged finance at Bloomberg News, moderating. The panel addressed rates impact on credit, the sovereign crisis, AI hyperscaler issuance, default risk and value hunting down the capital structure.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Credit Crunch: Where AI Fits With Cognitive Credit’s Rob Slater

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 13:32:00 -0000

“If there are things in your business that need to get done, but they’re pretty low risk, this is a great place to start because it has a very attractive risk-reward payout,” says Rob Slater, CEO and founder of Cognitive Credit, reflecting on one of the two areas where AI makes the most sense to deploy. “If you do an AI experiment and it doesn’t really work, you’re not really any worse off.” Slater joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss Cognitive Credit’s work to automate portions of the analytic process, beginning with reliable financial-data extraction, and how that can scale into valuation. The two discuss the increased prevalence of technology across the credit investing landscape, and the growing need to be “doing something,” building on the themes of the firm’s white paper, “Why every credit investor now needs a credit data strategy.” The founder’s journey and the evolving needs of a growing business are also discussed.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Macro Matters: Global Asset Allocation With Stephen Dover

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 20:10:00 -0000

Policy rates will likely be cut three times in 2026, with the 10-year yield between 4-4.5%, says Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton. Dover is joined by BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss global fixed-income markets and cross-asset relative value. The trio discuss the economic outlook for 2026 and relative value in US rate markets and abroad amid expected policy easing from the Federal Reserve. They also hit on shifts in private assets and global equity markets, before discussing how AI narratives may evolve in the coming years.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Sound Point's Steve Ketchum on Credit's Revolution

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 11:30:00 -0000

“Everyone we compete with, other CEOs of asset managers, credit asset managers that I talk to, are hyper-focused on making sure that there's not another cockroach running around in their portfolio,” says Steve Ketchum, CEO and founder of Sound Point Capital, when reflecting on the potential positive side effects of recent high-visibility credit events. Ketchum joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the evolution from modest beginnings to nearly $45 billion in assets under management, synergies across the Sound Point product suite, the role of strategic partnerships, scale and one of their core ethos: wanting to have more ideas than capital. They also reflect on the growing role of private credit and how CLO structures have evolved. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sound Point Disclaimer: Assets under management as of October 1, 2025. This material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. It is being provided solely for informational and reference purposes only and is not intended to be, and must not be, the basis for any investment decision. Statements represent the subjective views of Sound Point and cannot be independently verified and are subject to change. Past performance is not necessarily indicative

of future results.

Credit Crunch: Credit Clubs, Sovereign Crises, AT1s vs. Hybrids

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 18:18:00 -0000

Credit is tight, though it’s fared better in 2025 than rates and equities through many crises across the globe — France, tariffs, Fed concerns and Britain’s doubtful fiscal health. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, showcases the Credit Clubs in Milan, Madrid and (upcoming) in London. He discusses these crises and ways to engage in credit with Samuel Sibony, Portfolio Manager at Algebris Investments. They cover the subordinated vs. senior debate in depth with a particular focus on AT1s and corporate hybrids, the tightness of the BBB and BB buckets vs. B value and the robustness of high yield in a rate risk environment, and defaults migrating to private credit. Credit Crunch is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on ⁠Apple Podcasts⁠ and ⁠Spotify⁠. Register for our London credit event on November 27th here.

Credit Crunch: Akin’s Ramanathan on Capital Solutions

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 11:30:00 -0000

“The uptake among public companies actually is the biggest evolution in the field, because public companies are beginning to recognize the value of this asset class,” says Ranesh Ramanathan, partner and co-head of the Global Capital Solutions Practice for Akin, discussing capital solutions as a financing alternative. Ramanathan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about building a product suite, and meeting a company where they are at with a tailored solution. The pair also examine the difficulties in building awareness, the broader growth in funding alternatives, potential extensions for Akin’s platform and lessons learned through the great financial crisis.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

State of Distressed Debt: Houlihan Lokey’s Tuck Hardie Is Back

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 13:57:00 -0000

“It may or may not be good ... or binding precedent, but I think ConvergeOne will actually make the holdout risk worse because the minority lenders will now point to it and say ‘Sorry pal, you can’t jam this down my throat in court, so you’re not jamming it down my throat out of court either,’” says Houlihan Lokey Managing Director Tuck Hardie. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel on this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast to review the workout landscape, sponsors’ exit strategies and LME trends. Prior to that, Phil and Noel reflect on high yield’s run and current vulnerability. To conclude, BI’s Negisa Balluku discusses the latest developments in First Brands, Spirit Airlines, Lifescan and Incora, while Phil reviews 2025 Prepack Plan Performances and Ardagh Group.

The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Also, a heads up! Negisa and Phil will be at the Beard Group’s 32nd Annual Distressed Investing Conference on Dec. 2-3, 2025. We are excited to hear from the top professionals on the latest machinations in distressed investing. Conference: https://www.distressedinvestingconference.com/agenda.html

All Options Considered: Bloomberg Volatility Forum NYC 2025, Part II

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 18:43:00 -0000

Secular AI themes, product development in the volatility ecosystem and fault lines in the economy, as well as navigating volatility in digital assets, are among the key discussion points in this edition of the All Options Considered, featuring part II of the recording of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in NYC on Oct. 28. It starts with the fireside chat on digital assets by Randy Little, Partner, 50T Funds, moderated by Stacy-Marie Ishmael, executive editor, Bloomberg News. That’s followed by the final panel of the conference on multi-asset volatility and macro views by Jeff Blazek, Multi-Asset Co-Chief Investment Officer, Neuberger Berman, Nancy Davis, Managing Partner & Chief Investment Officer, Quadratic Capital, Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO, Unlimited Funds, and Matthew Glazier, Co-Head of Global Derivative Trading, Prudential. The panel was hosted by Tanvir Sandhu, Chief Global Derivatives Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

FX Moment: Fiscal Strain Leaves No Way Out of Sterling Bear Trap

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 16:31:00 -0000

The UK fiscal predicament will likely keep sterling under pressure heading into the Nov. 26 budget. The view is starting to look crowded, and recent moves appear stretched, but any upside is set to be contained until the fiscal path clears. For now, sterling bulls might have to settle for some consolidation ahead of the budget and/or renewed dollar weakness, which isn’t in sight yet. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Laura Cooper, managing director and head of macro credit at Nuveen, discuss UK fiscal- and monetary-policy dynamics and the shaky sterling backdrop. Laura and Audrey also touch on the recent dollar rebound and share their views into 2026.

FX Moment is part of the FICC Focus podcast. Listen to FICC Focus on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

All Options Considered: Bloomberg Volatility Forum NYC 2025

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 17:22:00 -0000

This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in NYC on October 28th. It starts with the keynote speech by BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets, followed by the discussion from the first panel on the derivatives market by Benn Eifert, Managing Partner, co-CIO Head of Multi-Strategy at QVR, Diego Parrilla, Chief Investment Officer at Quadriga Asset Managers and Ilya Gofshteyn, Head of Research and Lead Macro Strategist at Capstone Investment Advisors. The panel is hosted by Noel Hebert, Chief US Corporate Credit Strategist & Global Director of FICC Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Credit Crunch: New Mountain’s Kaplan on Net-Lease Landscape

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 11:30:00 -0000

“Manufacturing assets, the availability of them, have been chronically undersupplied for decades,” says Teddy Kaplan, CEO of Net Lease for New Mountain Capital, when making the investment case for the sector within a net-lease portfolio. Kaplan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss sale-leasebacks, the evolution of the marketplace and the synergies of net lease within the New Mountain product set. They also explore on-shoring trends dating back through several administrations, asset-multiple arbitrage, identifying the right markets and tenants, as well as geographic growth opportunities. Kaplan and Hebert conclude with a conversation on managing distress within the portfolio and the emergence of asset-backed funding solutions.

FICC Focus: Newmark’s Hinton on US Commercial Real-Estate Outlook

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 10:56:00 -0000

Investor sentiment is improving across commercial real estate as liquidity improves, cash flows stabilize and capitalization rates compress. Jimmy Hinton, chief revenue officer for US capital markets at Newmark Group, joins BI chief fixed income strategist, Damian Sassower, to discuss his firm’s approach to price discovery, leverage and deal flow. Hinton and Sassower discuss the role of leasing velocity, lending standards, operating expenses, concessions and net absorption when identifying opportunities across the industrial, retail, office, multifamily, life sciences and hospitality sectors.

Macro Matters: US and Canada Monetary Policy Recap and Outlook

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 20:18:00 -0000

I don’t think that the next Fed chair does much to change my expectations for the terminal rate this cycle, says Stuart Paul, US & Canada Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul is joined by BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US & Canada rates-strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss takeaways from the recent Federal Reserve, and Bank of Canada meetings. The trio discuss the outlook for monetary policy and yields on both sides of the border. They also touch on the upcoming release of the Canadian federal budget, the end of the Federal Reserve’s asset runoff program and what comes next for balance sheet policy, in addition to the impact of political influence on the path of monetary policy.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Corbin Capital’s Cocke on Value in Fixed Income

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 16:03:00 -0000

“Where your capital is going to create value, that’s the area we want to focus on the most. So today we see a lot of that in telecom broadly defined data-center digital-infrastructure financing,” says John Cocke, Partner and Deputy Chief Investment Officer of credit for alternative asset management firm Corbin Capital Partners, discussing opportunities in the credit markets. Cocke joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about Corbin’s involvement in a broad range of fixed-income products, including high yield bonds, leveraged loans, mortgage-backed securities, private credit and litigation finance.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Macro Matters: Trade and Fed With Fed Watch Advisors’ Emons

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 16:00:00 -0000

Renewed US-China trade tensions, the impact of tariffs on rare-earth minerals and the growing uncertainty facing markets are among the topics discussed in this episode of Macro Matters, part of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus series. Host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief interest rate strategist, speaks with Ben Emons, founder and CIO of Fed Watch Advisors, about how these developments could influence inflation, unemployment and the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. They also examine gold’s surge, global spillovers and what lies ahead for Fed policy and leadership.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

State of Distressed Debt: Cadwalader’s Mintz on Recent LME Litigation

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 13:23:00 -0000

“If I were a lender, I would sign a coop with everyone — or mostly everyone — the day after the loan closes, and then just let it sit there.” That’s Douglas Mintz’s solution to the damaging frenzy that often erupts when word spreads that creditors are organizing ahead of a potential liability management exercise. In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku, Mintz, who is a partner in Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP’s Financial Restructuring practice and a member of the firm’s Special Situations team, discusses the dynamics between majority and minority creditors, examining how recent rulings in ConvergeOne, Incora and American Tire Distributors are shaping creditor strategies. Prior to that, BI’s Phil Brendel and Stephen Flynn examine the current state of the communications sector, which houses the largest share of distressed-debt supply. The podcast concludes with a roundtable discussion on First Brands, Spirit Airlines, New Fortress Energy and Telesat.

Macro Matters: Gold and Gold Stocks With Merk Investments CIO

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 17:39:00 -0000

Gold isn’t showing signs of true dollar debasement, if it were, there would be an even more severe market reaction, says Merk Investments co-founder and CIO Axel Merk on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Merk joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey to discuss the reason gold has been climbing rapidly in recent weeks. Merk thinks the gold rally is due to speculators, central-bank and institutional buying, while he outlines how retail investors seem to have been sellers. Good management among gold producers is key for adding value when investing in the precious-metals sector. The two discuss the shifting relationship of real yields and gold performance.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Investor Survey, France, Trade War and 4Q Outlook

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:58:00 -0000

Credit and high yield had a good 2025, despite tariffs and rates volatility as spreads held ground. Will 4Q sustain this resilience and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook, with Alexis Renault, global head of high yield at Oddo BHF. They discuss the French fiscal problems and trade war's impact on credit, potential ECB action in a sovereign crisis along with distress and default rates. The podcast also covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

Credit Crunch is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

All Options Considered: Equity Derivatives With Susquehanna

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 15:19:00 -0000

There are some interesting developments in equity volatility which have trading implications from the pronounced spread between VIX and SPX realized volatility, low stock correlation, rise of single stock volatility and the shape of the VIX curve. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Chris Murphy, Co-Head Derivative Strategy at Susquehanna, to discuss equity volatility and flows.Register for the 2nd Annual Volatility Forum in New York, October 28 at Bloomberg's headquarters.

Macro Matters: ABS Market Review With BI’s Rod Chadehumbe

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:10:00 -0000

Asset-backed securities issuance remains slightly behind the same period in 2024, even with Tricolor-related angst continuing, notes Bloomberg Intelligence ABS Strategist Rod Chadehumbe on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Chadehumbe and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey discuss Tricolor’s effect on the ABS market, how the consumer is driving issuance, recent trends in subprime credit-card and auto-ABS delinquencies, and his outlook for spreads.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series

FX Moment: Mizuho's Rochester on the Yen

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 17:10:00 -0000

The unexpected election of the LDP’s Sanae Takaichi and her known bias for expansionary fiscal policies is questioning the yen’s bull case and the currency’s sharp and broad selloff since the Oct. 4 result is a taste of what could come. For now, we don’t have enough information to assess how or when fiscal stimulus will eventually unfold, so it’s premature to call a sustainably bearish view until the fiscal prospects can be quantified.

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss Japanese fiscal and monetary-policy dynamics and the potentially binary yen implications. Jordan and Audrey also discuss the dollar and the euro’s near-term political predicament.

This episode was recorded on Oct. 8. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

EM Lens: From Risk to Resilience With Andersen’s Natalucci

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Institutional appetite for high-beta asset classes continues to endure yet traditional safe havens are not behaving as they should. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Market Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss investor positioning and risk sentiment ahead of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s 2025 Annual Meetings. Natalucci and Sassower touch on issues ranging from global trade and geopolitics to term premia expansion and AI-related capital expenditure.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Macro Matters: All Things Rates with BofA Strategist Swiber

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 22:41:00 -0000

The Federal Reserve moving away from the federal funds rate as the policy target would be welcome, said Meghan Swiber, senior US rates strategist at Bank of America Securities on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Swiber and Bloomberg Intelligence Head of US Rates Strategy Ira Jersey also discuss BofA’s views on the yield curve, Treasury issuance and Federal Reserve policy.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Rithm’s Nierenberg on M&A, Recasting Perceptions

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 10:30:00 -0000

“Being able to underwrite a consumer, being able to offer that product to that consumer and then being able to touch that consumer is very, very important,” says Michael Nierenberg, CEO of Rithm Capital, discussing the company's focus on asset classes where it has an edge. Nierenberg joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Erica Adelberg on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about growth through M&A, changing the market’s perception of the company, recent deals for Crestline and Paramount Group, the history and growth of Rithm’s mortgage business, and what’s next. They also discuss effects of the yield curve and monetary policy, the implications of a low-volatility backdrop and asset classes that require caution.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Macro Matters: Mortgage-Market Update With BI’s Erica Adelberg

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 17:29:00 -0000

Mortgage-backed securities may benefit from renewed bank demand as Fed easing improves net interest margins, according to Bloomberg Intelligence mortgage strategist Erica Adelberg. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, she joins host Ira Jersey, BI’s chief US interest-rate strategist, to discuss mortgage issuance, market structure, the role of cash buyers in housing and how the Fed’s balance sheet is likely to affect mortgage supply. They also review research indicating that a significant portion of mortgages originated in recent years can now be refinanced.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

All Options Considered: Volatility of NFT Art - View from Christie's

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 11:17:00 -0000

Digital art has been around for decades but blockchain technology provides provenance. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI chief global derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nicole Sales Giles, Director of Digital Art at Christie's to discuss the volatility of the NFT art market, AI generated art and emerging artists to watch.

Macro Matters: Global Central-Bank Meetings Review — Rates Recap

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 19:19:00 -0000

The official line is that QT has added 15-25 bps on 10-year gilts, but it’s probably adding quite a bit more than that, says Huw Worthington, chief European rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who sees signs that central banks are addressing that now. In this episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Worthington is joined by BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US & Canada rates-strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss takeaways from the recent Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Canada meetings. The trio discusses the outlook for the path of monetary policy and the direction of interest rates and yield curves across North American and European sovereign-bond markets. They also examine the focus on shifting balance-sheet policies as North American funding markets see some pressure and the Bank of England slows the pace of asset runoff.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Adams Street’s Diehl on Trends in Private Capital

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 16:42:00 -0000

“I think it’s very difficult to predict a world where you might go back to zero interest rates. And so that all portends that there’s likely to be an uptick in default rates,” says Jeff Diehl, managing partner and head of investments at Adams Street, discussing potential challenges awaiting direct lenders after the strong growth of the asset class. Diehl joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about Adams Street’s approach to private credit managers, a focus on sectors exposed to disruption, how having private equity (PE) and venture capital exposures creates synergies. They also discuss private market secondaries, how hyper-scaling in parts of the direct-lending market may add returns risk and the outlook for PE exit activity. The information presented herein is provided for informational and educational purposes only; it is not investment advice, nor is it an offer or sale of, or a recommendation related to, the securities of any fund or company, investment products, or investment advice. This podcast is a recording of extemporaneous remarks delivered in an informal, conversational format. The comments are high-level in nature, represent the subjective impression of the speaker, may be forward-looking and are subject to change. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and there can be no guarantee against a loss, including a complete loss, of capital.”

State of Distressed: Joele Frank’s Freitag on Distressed Liaisons

Sat, 13 Sep 2025 10:30:00 -0000

“I spend most of my time trying to downplay the stuff that you find fascinating, right?,” Joele Frank Partner Michael Freitag says. “The inter-creditor interaction, the creditor versus sponsor interaction, the creditor versus issuer action. We try to position all of that as this noise, this thing going off to the side, being managed by sophisticated investors and sophisticated advisors.” In this episode of The State of Distressed Debt, Freitag discusses with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel how distressed companies’ strategic communications have evolved over the past 30 years. (6:20) Freitag delves into the crafting and sequencing of press releases and 8-Ks as part of a comprehensive restructuring strategy, stressing that accurate, timely communications are critical to combat the growing presence of “dark arts” in social media. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Hebert and Brendel for a roundtable discussion on Spirit Airlines, LifeScan, At Home, Azul, TPI Composites, Claire’s and QVC Group. (1:14:00)

EM Lens: Risk Appetite Is Improving, Capital Flows to Follow

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 12:41:00 -0000

Foreign demand for emerging-market local debt is improving, as overseas investors pursue yield differentials amid diminishing currency volatility. Bertrand Delgado, head of Latin America strategy at Societe Generale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to assess macroeconomic conditions across Latin America and the broader EM landscape, with implications for institutional investors across the globe. Delgado and Sassower touch on topics ranging from portfolio flows and foreign direct investment to cross-asset volatility and currency skew.

Macro Matters: Federated Hermes Gallo on Fixed Income Outlook

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 18:23:00 -0000

“The Federal Reserve was created to have a degree of what I like to call operational independence”, says Federated Hermes Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income RJ Gallo on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. He joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss future movements of the Treasury yield curve, recent economic data and its quality, and effects of recent government policies such as tariffs and the budget. On monetary policy and the risks to Fed independence, he believes the Fed was created to have a degree of operational independence, but as an organization with board members appointed by political officials, it’s not outside the political sphere.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: France, Tariffs, Fed, UK: Credit Always Resilient

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 12:12:00 -0000

Credit fared better than rates and equities through multiple crises this year across the globe — France, tariffs, Fed concerns and even the UK worries. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, discusses these crises and the multi-asset outlook with Iain Stealey, international CIO of global fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. They cover US, Europe and UK growth, inflation, central bank views and the dollar. The state of credit fundamentals and default expectations for the next year across Europe and the US are examined in detail, highlighting the resilience of credit in outperforming rates and equities.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Masters of the Muniverse: Munis Await Institutional Backstop

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 18:30:00 -0000

Institutional demand has been slow to return to the muni market in 2025, leaving performance at the long end under pressure. Yet signs are emerging that banks, insurance companies, and crossover buyers may be stepping back in as tax clarity improves and relative value looks more compelling. In this episode of FICC Focus, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Karen Altamirano is joined by her former co-host, Eric Kazatsky, managing director and client portfolio manager at MacKay Shields, to discuss his new role, and how institutional money could help support the yield curve into year-end.

Macro Matters: Yield-Curve Steepening With Mizuho’s Konstam

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 18:05:00 -0000

The real yield curve may steepen from both ends much further then it has, Mizuho Securities Head of Macro Strategy Dominic Konstam says on this Macro Matters edition of FICC Focus podcast. Konstam joins host Ira Jersey, head of interest-rate strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence. After reviewing Konstam’s career arc, the two discuss term premium and how shifts in the yield curve could effect risk assets. Konstam thinks Trump Administration policies will continue to weight on the dollar.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

FX Moment: Bank of Nassau’s Thin Sees Dollar Leg Lower Into Fall

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 14:44:00 -0000

Fiscal policy returned to the forefront of G10FX drivers in early September — which isn’t particularly positive for the dollar — and part of the structural bear case we identified earlier this year. In this episode of FICC Focus, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Dr Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited argue that the dollar’s next leg lower could be cyclical in nature, with any further weakening in US non-farm payrolls likely to engender continued Fed rate-cut talk into the September FOMC Meeting. Win and Audrey also acknowledge a less-supportive context for the euro, but conclude on enough dollar bearishness to validate $1.20 euro-dollar later this year. For now defensive FX such as the Swiss franc has its merits.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

FICC Special: A Primer on Property Lending With Varde's Dunbar

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 16:00:00 -0000

Commercial real estate debt strategies continue to unlock value for institutional investors as providing credit solutions across the capital stack grows increasingly more complex. Jim Dunbar, partner and head of Real Estate Lending at Varde Partners, joins BI chief fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his firm’s approach to identifying opportunities and managing risk in commercial and residential real estate. Dunbar and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in real estate finance, with a focus on engineering returns, servicing loans and scaling strategies.

Macro Matters: Who Benefits From Defense Burden-Sharing?

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:49:00 -0000

Defense burden-sharing among US allies is a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s international agenda, but has been overshadowed by tariff discussions. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series, George Ferguson, senior aerospace/defense & airline analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins host and BI chief interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss shifts in defense spending and weapon systems. They also examine how spending may shift based on proximity to threats. Ferguson assesses the companies that may benefit from these increased outlays, and some of the challenges in fulfilling orders.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Significant Risk Transfers Feeding Private Credit

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 15:10:00 -0000

Significant Risk Transfers or SRTs have been a crucial part of balance sheet management for banks and an attractive investment class within private credit for credit investors looking for alternatives to public credit markets. Demystifying SRTs and understanding the process and evaluation of these assets is crucial for credit investors. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence hosts an investor, Matthew Moniot, Head of Credit Risk Sharing at ManGroup and a seller, James Plunkett, Head of Capital and Risk Distribution at Natwest along with Lento Tang, Senior Bank Analyst who has published a survey on SRTs, in a highly informative podcast.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify

All Options Considered: Perception of UK's Outlook vs. Reality

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 10:00:00 -0000

The perception of the UK economic outlook on a macro level may be perceived to be negative through the lens of social media. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI chief global derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, chief UK economist at Bloomberg Economics to discuss the state of the economy, bond market volatility and the fiscal outlook.

Credit Crunch: Palmer Square’s Bloomfield on Traditional, Static CLOs

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 13:34:00 -0000

“So it’s a tough situation when you’re managing a spread-based portfolio, like a CLO. And obviously we don’t have the luxury of tightening the spreads on the liability side,” says Matt Bloomfield, partner at Palmer Square and president of Palmer Square Capital BDC, when discussing the current pace of re-pricings across the leveraged loan market. Bloomfield joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about traditional and static CLOs, a less-conventional approach to business development companies and Palmer’s roots in opportunistic credit. They also discuss relative value and the current credit landscape, the advantages of scale, diversification and leverage.

International Rates Alpha With Invesco’s Baijal: Macro Matters

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 17:27:00 -0000

The future of the dollar is dictated by the large overhang of unhedged dollar assets, says Hemant Baijal, head of macro alpha strategies at Invesco. Baijal joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, on this episode of the Macro Matters podcast to discuss the world of international bond funds. They cover strategic approaches to managing global rates, credit and FX risks, and how those have shifted in recent months. They also explore relative value across nominal and inflation-linked curves.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Credit Crunch: Around the World of Global Credit in 60 Minutes

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 13:36:00 -0000

Global credit is very tight and strategic insights are very valuable at this juncture. In this latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy hosts the Global Credit Strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Meet Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Heema Patel (Europe) and Reto Bachmann (Structured Finance) as you get to know their research and data along with their key views on the markets and themes they cover. All strategists discuss the place of their markets in world credit, relative value, and their new product launches. Visit BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG to access all their research and data.

Credit Crunch is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Masters of the Muniverse: Inside Muni Strategy With Jason Hannon

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 12:23:00 -0000

The record-breaking pace of muni issuance and investors’ risk-off tone toward duration have driven a sharp steepening of the municipal yield curve, leaving it trailing other fixed-income sectors. In an environment also marked by market volatility and shifting policy dynamics, the case for active management in munis has never been stronger. In this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Karen Altamirano talks with Jason Hannon, head of municipal strategy and senior portfolio manager at Wilmington Trust, about how this year’s developments are shaping muni investment decisions.

Credit Crunch: Apollo’s Cortese on Credit Trading, IG Privates

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 10:27:00 -0000

“So for us, it’s a $40 trillion market,” says John Cortese, head of portfolio management at Apollo, when talking about the mostly investment grade opportunity in private credit, including asset backed deals and corporates. Cortese joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about where the growth comes from, the evolution of a secondary market and why private credit works for high grade borrowers. They also get into the shifting landscape in credit trading, the advantages of being big and fast, relative value plays and lessons learned from trading synthetics in the early aughts.

EM Lens: Dusting Off Global Macro Playbook With Citi’s Willer

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 11:32:00 -0000

Emerging market economies are benefiting from better-than-expected growth and inflation expectations, with local rates looking set to outperform amid a more dovish US Federal Reserve. Dirk Willer, managing director and global head of macroeconomic research at Citigroup, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging-market fixed-income strategist, to assess the fixed-income landscape, with implications for interest rate and currency markets across the globe. Willer and Sassower touch on topics ranging from systematic drivers and foreign positioning to FX-hedge flows and central bank reserves.

Macro Matters: Inflation Pricing With JPMorgan’s Phoebe White

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 17:42:00 -0000

JPMorgan’s Phoebe White, head of inflation strategy, says a September interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve risks pushing inflation expectations higher. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives work, how investors use them to hedge and JPMorgan’s outlook for breakevens and real yields. The BI US Interest Rate Strategy team has recently published research on TIPS, including a market outlook and an analysis of market structure.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Credit Crunch: Vontobel’s Jackson Talks Credit Relative Value

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 10:26:00 -0000

“I want a decent proportion of my returns to be from actively trading either through themes, individual instruments or...between EM and DM, between Europe and the US,“ says Andrew Jackson, head of Investments and leader of the Fixed Income Boutique for Vontobel. Jackson joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Damian Sassower on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk beta vs. alpha exposures, current risk pricing across credit, the emerging-market landscape and the value in active management.

State of Distressed Debt: Axar’s Axelrod Keeping Loan-to-Own Alive

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 16:13:00 -0000

On the latest episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed podcast, Andrew Axelrod, founder & CEO of Axar Capital, shares how focused distressed debt buyers such as Axar Capital are often the best bid for middle-market troubled loans as they stand ready to commit capital and sweat equity to the turnaround. In his conversation with BI’s Chief US Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Analyst Phil Brendel (5:55), Axelrod touches on Axar’s “loan-to-own” strategy, what he looks for in management teams, and the importance of “sticking to the process.” The podcast concludes with Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion on At Home, Claire’s, CommScope, LifeScan, the SCOTUS pitch in Serta, and Ardagh Group (1:04:33).

Macro Matters: Secular Macro Trends With Invesco’s Brian Levitt

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 18:00:00 -0000

History suggests that technology improves lives and standards of living, despite the fears that often accompany it, says Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Levitt is joined by host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, to discuss the state of the economy and long-term structural trends. The trio also dives into short-term inflation dynamics, strategic investment decisions in times of uncertainty and risks to currently priced narratives across asset classes.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Dollar Bear Views Hold and Recent Rally Already Over: FX Moment

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 12:02:00 -0000

The cyclically and structurally dollar bearish narrative that dominated 1H have just been revived by the weakness in the July Non Farm Payrolls figures and associated dovish Fed expectations adjustment (cyclically dollar negative) as well as by the controversial and highly unexpected firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief (structurally dollar negative). Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Elias Haddad, Senior Market Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Investor about whether the recent US dollar rebound may be over already.

Elias and Audrey agree that the dollar bear view stays in place beyond near-term summer distortions and with the $1.20 plus euro-dollar year-end case holding for now.

Real Estate Private Credit With Madison’s Zegen: FICC Special

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 11:56:00 -0000

Real estate private credit has grown into a major source of debt financing for the US commercial real estate market, bridging the gap left by traditional banks and lenders. Josh Zegen, principal and co-founder of Madison Realty Capital, joins BI Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Damian Sassower to discuss his firm’s approach to loan origination, acquisition, servicing and valuation. Zegen and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in commercial real estate, with a focus on financing costs, return expectations, market trends and institutional appetite.

BlackRock’s Brownback on Global Fixed Income: Macro Matters

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 19:10:00 -0000

There’s a wall of money that is a transcendent supportive influence over global assets, says Russ Brownback, co-portfolio manager of the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund on this episode of the FICC Focus Podcast. Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey hosts this Macro Matters edition delving into Brownback’s views on the dollar remaining the global reserve currency, finding yield among development market sovereigns, technical factors supporting global asset markets, and his views around select opportunities to sell fixed-income volatility.

Mortgage Market Update With BI’s Erica Adelberg: Macro Matters

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 16:38:00 -0000

Mortgage-market investors will need to pay especially close attention to policy shifts and actions in coming weeks, says Erica Adelberg, chief mortgage strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. On this Macro Matter’s episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Adelberg is joined by host Ira Jersey, BI’s head of US interest-rate strategy, to discuss the mortgage-backed securities market. Adelberg explores how the MBS landscape is evolving amid recent policy shifts, including GSE-privatization discussions, the broadening of mortgage-credit access through the adoption of VantageScore, changes to VA loss-mitigation strategies and shifting demand across mortgage-backed securities products. The analysis also considers the influence of the Federal Reserve on MBS supply and demand dynamics.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

ICG’s Saitowitz on Landscape, Outlook for CLOs: Credit Crunch

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 10:30:00 -0000

“From the beginning of 2024 till now, literally every six months you could set your alarm to it... the reprices were occurring,” says David Saitowitz, head of US Liquid Credit for ICG. Saitowitz joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to review the current landscape for CLOs, including the steady wave of repricings and refinancings, the quick recovery from April volatility and why he’s cautious about the intermediate-term outlook. The two discuss growing the US liquid-credit business, staying disciplined amid market swings, control economics for the CLO equity tranche and much more.

Ninety One’s Kent on Blurring Lines Between EM and DM: EM Lens

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Traditional safe havens are misbehaving as the once-distinct boundaries between emerging and developed markets begins to blur. Peter Kent, co-head of Emerging Market Fixed Income at Ninety One, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed-income strategist Damian Sassower to break down the risks and opportunities facing asset allocators across the globe. Kent and Sassower touch on global trade, supply shocks, capital flows, fiscal balances, investor positioning and currency volatility as the perceived safety of developed market debt is called into question.

Stablecoin Regulation Update With Nathan Dean: Macro Matters

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 16:40:00 -0000

The GENIUS Act is just the beginning of the regulatory process for stablecoins, notes Nathan Dean, senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence on this Macro Matters episode. Dean joins hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of BI’s interest-rate strategy team to discuss why the act was created, how demand for Treasury Bills and repurchase agreements may shift over time, as well as briefly touching on the proposed change to the bank supplementary leverage ratio.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Oaktree’s Rosenfelt on LME Tensions: State of Distressed Debt

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Disqualified lender lists may be counterproductive because when you get to the negotiating room “it’s often the distressed funds that are the more ‘constructive’ from the perspective of the sponsor” says Ross Rosenfelt, a managing director in Oaktree’s Opportunities group. In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Rosenfelt sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explain why sponsors may be getting steered in the wrong direction when they put credit opportunity funds on their DQ list. He dives into Oaktree’s approach to liability management exercises, cooperation agreements and why recent related antitrust bluster around those agreements isn’t keeping him up at night (8:15). Prior to that, Brendel and BI’s Noel Hebert discuss their shared amazement at both the equity and debt markets’ ebullience. The podcast concludes with a round-table discussion on Sunnova, At Home, Wolfspeed, Marelli and Yellow Corp (1:06:00).

BI’s Huw Worthington, Ira Jersey Talk G3+ Rates: Macro Matters

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 17:12:00 -0000

US Treasury yields are the lowest among the G3+, once hedged back to US dollars. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s US interest rate strategist, and Huw Worthington, his European rate strategy counterpart, take up the topic in this episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The analysts discuss central bank policy action and government bond markets in general. They also discuss why long-end yields have been more sensitive to fears of rising deficits than shorter-maturity bonds. Terminal users can view their note on how Treasuries are the lowest-yielding sovereign bond market, after the currency hedge, by clicking here.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Investor Survey, Trade War and Dollar, 2H Outlook: Credit Crunch

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 13:01:00 -0000

Credit and high yield had a good 1H, shaking off tariffs and a spread rout with a strong recovery. Will 2H be as strong, and why? Thomas Samson, high yield portfolio manager at Muzinich & Co., joins Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, to discuss the results of BI’s 3Q High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook. They also talk about dollar flows into euro-denominated assets, the trade war’s effect on market dispersions, and how private credit and loan markets are influencing high yield and default rates in 2H. They cover investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.

Rates Volatility With Quadratic’s Davis: All Options Considered

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 15:03:00 -0000

Rates volatility has compressed with the Fed on hold and mean reversion of yields, but exhibited a bumpy path in 1H. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the dynamics of rates volatility and reliability of strategies to diversify portfolios.

Euro-Dollar 2H Bullish View May Get Cyclical Support: FX Moment

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 10:01:00 -0000

The nearly 15% euro-dollar rally in 1H was fueled largely by dollar weakness and a potentially bullish cyclical case for the euro — especially expectations for a supportive fiscal and monetary policy mix — which may continue to support the outlook into 2H. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS’ Chief Investment Office, about how evolving euro-area and US fiscal and monetary policy may help euro-dollar strength into 2H and beyond, depending on how the US economic story plays out. They also discuss the de-dollarization trend and how the SNB could address the challenge of an appreciating franc.

Stablecoins’ Appetite for T-Bills, ESLR Reform: Macro Matters

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 20:11:00 -0000

There will almost certainly be some stress later this year in funding markets, but it might fall short of the level required for the Federal Reserve to step in, Will Hoffman, Bloomberg Intelligence senior associate for US and Canadian rates strategy, says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Hoffman is joined by co-host Ira Jersey, chief US rates strategist, to discuss the recently announced potential changes to Basel capital rules, such as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (ESLR). After discussing what it means (or doesn’t mean) for Treasury markets, the pair unpack the biggest topics in the world of money funds, including the potential for stablecoin growth and tokenized money fund adoption driving net demand for T-bills. They also dive into the debt-ceiling unwind — covering T-bill net issuance patterns and the potential disruption to repo markets.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Barings’ Bryan High on Adjusting to Volatility: Credit Crunch

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 10:30:00 -0000

“If you were a client that was focused on North America, you’re probably picking your head up a little bit and saying, ‘What else do you have away from North America that could be interesting?,’” according to Bryan High, head of Barings’ Global Private Finance Group. High joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the benefits of a global platform amid uncertainty, when secondaries make sense, where the growth is in private credit and managing for effective leverage. They talk about being with a borrower through its life cycle, finding structures for less-conventional opportunities and much more.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Fed Thoughts With BI Rates Strategist Ira Jersey: Macro Matters

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 20:39:00 -0000

The Federal Reserve may cut faster and to a lower interest rate then the market is pricing, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. Jersey flies solo on this episode, discussing his takeaways from the June FOMC meeting, his view on the timing and pace of rate cuts and what it would mean for the Treasury yield curve.

Liquidity and Central Bank Reserves with Matt King: All Options Considered

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 10:30:00 -0000

As cross-asset volatility resets following peak tariff fear, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil options market has moved higher. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, to discuss the impact of changes in central-bank reserves, liquidity and flows on markets.

Charlesbank’s Hau on Playing to Your Strengths: Credit Crunch

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 11:53:00 -0000

“We are sourcing, identifying misunderstood, high-quality middle-market companies where we have a real edge...,” said Sandor Hau, Managing Director & President, Credit, at Charlesbank, who oversees the company’s opportunistic credit investment team. Hau joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss cutting teeth on the ground in the Asian financial crisis, missing out on the dot.com boom, a private equity approach to credit investing and tradeoffs between primary- and secondary-market investments. He also spoke about valuing heritage, leveraging learnings across the firm and portfolio companies and much more.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

CGI’s Jamison on Emerging-Market Opportunities, Risks: EM Lens

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 10:59:00 -0000

Sentiment is improving across the emerging-market investment landscape, but it takes local expertise to manage risk and crystallize returns. Thea Jamison, Founder and Managing Director of Change Global Investment, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to break down the opportunities and risks facing emerging-market equity practitioners across the globe. Jamison and Sassower touch on performance dispersion, market catalysts and idiosyncratic opportunities across a broad range of EM countries, from Greece and Poland to Nigeria and Vietnam.

The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

SVP's Geenberg on Distressed Turnarounds: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 09:32:00 -0000

"If you've got [a company] that just doesn't have a logical strategic long-term owner or the industry's consolidated in a way that nobody can regulatorily do it, you're buying into a problem...And so we try to be very thoughtful about that coming in. And sometimes that means you can't do a deal. Sometimes that means you have to do it even cheaper to account for a discount on the backend too."David Geenberg, Head of Strategic Value Partners' North American Investment Team, explained to BI's Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel why contemplating exit strategies up front is part of SVP's investment process. Geenberg detailed how SVP's global investment team blends complementing skill sets to help it tackle all facets of its portfolio companies' investment cycle, including sourcing paper, restructuring, litigation, identifying corporate leaders, M&A, and strategic planning (6:25). Prior to that, BI's Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the return of risk appetite in May as tariffs were reeled back. The podcast concludes with BI's Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Hertz, Serta, Azul, Sunnova, and WeightWatchers (1:12:45).

The Price of Football With Kieran Maguire: Macro Matters

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 10:30:00 -0000

This week we’re talking economics and finances of the world’s game with professor, author and podcaster Kieran Maguire of University of Liverpool. (We apologize in advance for those who thought this show was about gridiron football, but with the Club World Cup beginning June 14, we thought it would be interesting to discuss football/soccer finance and some economic implications of the 2026 World Cup in North America.)

Maguire joins Macro Matters podcast host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist, and Business of Sports co-host and EM Lens host Damian Sassower, BI’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist. The group discusses football club valuations, the economic benefits (or pitfalls) of hosting the World Cup, and how clubs used debt to finance player transfers and club operations.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Sail Tariff, Default Seas with Alternative Credit: Credit Crunch

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:49:00 -0000

Credit globally recovered to nearly where it was as trade tensions eased, with various trade deals or tariff pauses while rate cuts are priced for central banks, especially the ECB and BOE but not the Fed. The big question is how to play credit after this recovery. In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Craig Scordellis, CIO of Credit at CQS UK, discuss how alternative credit and leveraged finance offer opportunities after the spread rally. They discuss tariffs, their effect on global inflation and currencies, central bank policy and outlook, state of credit fundamentals and default views for the next year across Europe and the US.

Monroe’s Koenig on Navigating Risk Amid Growth: Credit Crunch

Sat, 07 Jun 2025 10:30:00 -0000

“I’m an entrepreneur, I’m a capitalist. I love growth, I love to back entrepreneurs,” said Ted Koenig, founder, chairman and CEO of Monroe Capital, on how he sees the firm’s expansion to over $20 billion in assets under management from its founding in 2004. Koenig joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the company’s founding, attracting capital, identifying partners for growth and the market landscape. The three talk about diversification and CLOs, how big is too big and giving back to the community.

US Debt Dynamics, Hard Data May Shape 2H Dollar Bears: FX Moment

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 10:13:00 -0000

The structural dollar bearish case is holding into 2H, though fiscal considerations are what dollar bears may lean on going forward after being driven mainly by tariff uncertainty and the impact on the de-dollarization narrative. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief G10FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Stuart Paul, US and Canada economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the US debt dynamics and how the fiscal outlook could shape and drive the dollar view into 2H. Stuart and Audrey also touch on the narrow path to a potential dollar recovery via short-term cyclical dynamics should the US economy prove more resilient than expected. This isn’t Bloomberg Intelligence’s central working assumption, but it’s a scenario worth acknowledging.

Sue Hill on T-Bill Scarcity and Central Clearing: Macro Matters

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 16:58:00 -0000

“I’m just waiting for the T-bill tsunami to come, and it can’t come soon enough,” says Sue Hill, senior portfolio manager and head of the Government Liquidity Group at Federated Hermes. Hill joins Macro Matters hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior associate US-Canada rates strategist, to discuss the state of the money-market complex amid debt-ceiling-induced supply scarcity. The trio examine the limits and nuances of alternative liquidity-management wrappers, where individual needs and mandates dominate asset compositions. They discuss the debt ceiling, and how her team manages allocation decisions around low but non-zero default risks, as well as unattractive yields relative to alternatives. Also addressed was how the Federal Reserve’s RRP facility may have a permanent home as part of the money fund ecosystem, and the industry’s slow but steady push toward central clearing as the mid-2027 deadline inches closer.

Canyon’s Potts Leans Into CRE Complexity Premium: FICC Special

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 15:59:00 -0000

Commercial real estate lending remains highly sensitive to US interest rates, yet it also offers a much wider complexity premium than competing fixed income asset classes, with potential for outsized investor returns. Robin Potts, chief investment officer of Real Estate at Canyon Partners, joins BI chief fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss her firm’s approach to risk management, recovery mechanisms, loan origination and product evolution. Potts and Sassower discuss financing structures, liquidity trends, operating expenses and the broader landscape for institutional capital.

Canyon’s Kivitz on Cycles, Risk and Uncertainty: Credit Crunch

Thu, 29 May 2025 16:55:00 -0000

Market uncertainty can create its own opportunity, and when it comes to investing, “rules are meant to be broken in terms of finding attractive situations.” That’s according to Jeffrey Kivitz, chief investment officer for Canyon Capital Advisors, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss the firm’s approach to distressed and opportunistic credit. We talk about pricing risk amid uncertainty, solving for borrower needs, why the ingredients may be in place to see and more traditional, elongated credit cycle, and much more.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Bond Tax Exemption Lives On, for Now: Masters of the Muniverse

Sat, 24 May 2025 12:09:00 -0000

Municipal bonds scored a win in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed by the House earlier this week. They didn’t lose tax-exempt status, though the bill now moves to the Senate, where it can be changed and sent back to the House for another vote. BI analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by BI tax analyst Andrew Silverman and BI policy analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the legislation. The team discusses the legislation’s impact on the tax-exempt municipal market, federal spending and the bond market’s signaling of displeasure with deficits.

Fiscal Policy vs. the Bond Market - Who Breaks?: Macro Matters

Thu, 22 May 2025 16:09:00 -0000

“I think ultimately the bond market is the disciplinarian for fiscal policymakers” says Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management. Medeiros joins Macro Matters hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior associate US-Canada rates strategist, to discuss all things US and Canadian rates. The trio has one foot on each side of the border on this episode, unpacking the recent bond-market moves and their drivers. They cover the developing state of fiscal budgets and potential stimulative impacts on these economies, as well where monetary policy and yield curves may be headed as price-sensitive investors demand additional premium for long-dated sovereign debt.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Gibson Dunn’s Greenberg Unpacks Co-Ops: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 16 May 2025 10:30:00 -0000

“The cat-and-mouse game will continue,” says Scott Greenberg, the global chair of Gibson Dunn’s Business Restructuring and Reorganization Practice Group, referring to sponsors using “sneaky” nondisclosure agreements and anti-cooperation provisions to combat lender coordination in “three-dimensional” liability management. In a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Negisa Balluku at Beard Group’s Distressed Investing Media Night, Greenberg discussed his extensive involvement in the evolution of cooperation agreements, the flexibility of larger lenders with “more skin in the game,” and drawbacks of organizing too early. He also delved into the impact of reputational risk in the enforceability of co-ops, cultural differences that influence lender dynamics in European and US markets and his definition of “success” in liability management.

The conversation took place on May 6. The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Trade War Easing, Wide Spreads Aid Credit Outlook: Credit Crunch

Wed, 14 May 2025 13:16:00 -0000

Credit recovered from the tariff rout with trade war easing with many deals across US, China and UK while the new government takes shape in Germany and rate cuts priced for central banks - especially the ECB and BOE - adding momentum. The big question is whether this strength will continue? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Amir Fergani, Head of Credit LDI at Generali Asset Management, discuss tariffs, fiscal policies German and French politics and their effect on inflation, growth and central bank policy, the dollar weakness and its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after big rates moves.

Carronade’s Gropper on Investing: State of Distressed Debt

Tue, 13 May 2025 14:43:00 -0000

Carronade Capital Management Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer Dan Gropper expects the US to be in for a “rough ride.” “If I were today sitting on the board of a major corporation, I’m not sure I’d build my new factory or start a new division or open 14 new restaurants. You’d want to know what’s going to happen with the economy. And so even the uncertainty without the second- and third-order effects that can and will occur from tariffs, even before that happens, I think you’re already seeing people starting to pull back,” said Gropper, when he joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel at the Beard Group’s Distressed Investment Media Night on May 6. He detailed his firm’s investment approach, which is rooted in deep distressed investing experience and a collaborative DNA (6:35). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Brendel discussed the sharp widening of spreads in the energy sector and credit’s gloomy outlook. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Serta, Hertz, GOL, Incora, Ardagh, CommScope, WW International and Rite Aid (28:20).

Andy Constan on Fed Policy and Bond Market Myths: Macro Matters

Fri, 09 May 2025 12:17:00 -0000

Andy Constan, chief investment officer of Damped Spring Advisors, said a combination of potential expenditure cuts, which he estimates at around $300 billion per year, represents the largest fiscal tightening of his lifetime. Constan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US strategist, and Will Hoffman, US/CAD senior rates strategy associate, on this episode of Macro Matters to discuss all things interest rates. They talk about some of the biggest bond market myths as well as the path forward for the Fed’s balance sheet as quantitative tightening downshifted into low gear. The trio also discuss the likelihood for shifts in Treasury issuance as well as where monetary policy and bond yields may be headed. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Navigating Crypto Volatility: All Options Considered

Tue, 06 May 2025 15:17:00 -0000

Bitcoin’s volatility (currently 40%) is declining as adoption increases and the options market expands. In this edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings and 1RoundTable Partners, to discuss how to navigate volatility in digital assets.

Reasons to Believe in Better Canadian Dollar Fortunes: FX Moment

Thu, 01 May 2025 11:20:00 -0000

There's a case to argue that peak tariff headlines negativity is behind for Canada and that can be associated with improved fortunes for the currency. In this episode of FX Moment, BI's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets, about Canada's economic and political dynamics, for a Canadian dollar focus episode. The Bank of Canada will probably end up being more dovish than expected in 2025, but it isn't alone and combined with more expansionary yet credible fiscal dynamics under Mark Carney's leadership, that should all help the growth narrative and the currency.

Jeremy and Audrey also discuss the longer-term increased Canadian dollar appeal in a context of de-dollarization and global reserves diversification strategies.

AI Is Coming in Hot to Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 18:48:00 -0000

Though we’ve covered the coming (and in some ways already here) technology revolution for the municipal space in many prior episodes, our latest focuses more on the practical application of Artificial Intelligence. In other discussions with vendors, AI has been used to help scale businesses to prime them for growth. In this instance, AI is being used to hopefully generate alpha and provide an edge to the market. In this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Eugene Grinberg, CEO and co-founder of SOLVE, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano.

Crayhill’s Mendez Speaks on Defensive ABL Appeal: Credit Crunch

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 17:00:00 -0000

Tariff-induced uncertainty has rapidly altered the cost of capital for companies across all sectors, with potential for wider spreads to persist. Carlos Mendez, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Crayhill Capital Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to dive into the firm’s focus on commercial finance and renewable infrastructure asset-based lending, and the insulation its defensive approach provides. We discuss Crayhill’s recently announced oversubscribed fund, market dislocations and private credit competition, along with technological adoption and tools for dealing with stress.

Managing Through Volatility With Sonal Desai: Macro Matters

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 15:41:00 -0000

The dollar and equity markets remain expensive even after the recent declines, says Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Desai joins host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and associate North American rates strategist Will Hoffman for a discussion about the recent extreme volatility. She thinks focusing on the broader economic outlook and market valuations is a way to stay focused on longer-term returns. Desai examines why the dollar isn’t likely to lose its reserve-currency status.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Davis Polk’s Tsiouris on Next LME Act: State of Distressed Debt

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 21:21:00 -0000

“I don’t think that we’ve seen the full potential of these deals. What we’re going to see … in the coming years [is] sponsors and companies actually needing to execute on these third-party deals,” says Natasha Tsiouris, a partner at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, about keeping the threat of the “deal away” alive in evolving liability management transactions. Tsiouris, in a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel at the Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference, shared her perspective on the future of liability management, the mounting pressures on the “deal away,” the shift toward lender consensus and the arrival of private credit restructurings.

The State of Distressed Debt podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Tariffs and Volatility Flash Update: All Options Considered

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 16:57:00 -0000

Wide intraday-trading ranges across markets highlight risks on the downside and sensitivity to any positive news on the upside. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist, discusses tariff-led cross-asset volatility. Measures of equity convexity have spiked and spot-volatility reactivity has increased. Rates volatility has surged, but it’s still below 2022-23 hike-cycle levels.

SCP’s Perkins on Middle-Market Workouts: State of Distressed Debt

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Building relationships is fundamental to turning around middle-market companies, according to SierraConstellation Partners (SCP) Founder and CEO Lawrence Perkins, as employees are “in the center of the bullseye [and] doing the work every day, taking the calls from the vendors, taking the calls from the analyst, the private equity sponsor...the direct lender.”

In his feature interview with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel (7:36), Perkins shares he’s encountering more “distressed by accident” lenders these days, courtesy of the private credit boom, than the “distressed on purpose” ilk. He delves into the differences between Chapter 11, Article 9 sales, and Assignment for the Benefit of Creditors (“ABC”). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel open up with thoughts on April’s market whiplash. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining them for a roundtable discussion on Hertz, J&J, Ardagh, Franchise Group, Yellow Corp and Telesat (67:28).

Links mentioned in the podcast: https://www.distressedinvestingconference.com/media-night.html

Looking Through Tariffs, With Principal’s Shah: Macro Matters

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 12:21:00 -0000

Given inflation may be a feature of economy in the coming years, real estate and public infrastructure may be places for investors to consider, saysSeema Shah, chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Shah joins host and BI chief US rates strategistIra Jerseyto discuss investment ideas and regions in the midst of market volatility stemming from the tariff war.

Metacapital’s Narula on Mortgage Market Shakiness: Credit Crunch

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 10:27:00 -0000

The mortgage market may be on the brink of major transformation amid freshly implemented tariffs, proposed deregulation and the potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier are joined by Deepak Narula, founder and co-chief investment officer of Metacapital Management, to explore emerging opportunities in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). They discuss the negative convexity profile for the asset class, prepayment impacts, stagflation scenarios, utilizing machine learning models, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going private and more.

Andersen’s Natalucci on Fallout in Financial Plumbing: EM Lens

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 17:21:00 -0000

Global markets are struggling to digest the unprecedented economic and financial stability challenges posed by an all-out trade war. Dr.Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower, chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to break down his growth and inflation outlook for developed and emerging markets across the globe. Natalucci and Sassower touch on issues ranging from central bank stimulus and de-dollarization to the risks posed by private credit and shadow banking.

High Yield 2Q Investor Survey, Views Amid Tariffs: Credit Crunch

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 06:00:00 -0000

High yield had good first quarter gains with default rates low but cracks started developing in March even before Liberation day which led to a substantial rout with spreads selling off at record speeds. Will 2Q be a huge loss or will there be a turnaround and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Global Head of Credit Strategy, discusses the results of the BI 2Q25 High Yield Investor Survey, along with the market outlook, with Per Wehrmann, Head of European high yield at DWS Investments GmBH. The podcast covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value across asset class (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sector.

Orion's Lewnowski on Mining and Commodity Outlook: Credit Crunch

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 10:26:00 -0000

Copper and uranium may be well-positioned as economies seek to balance energy needs against social demands. Oskar Lewnowski, Founder and Group CEO of Orion Resource Partners, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Rob Barnett on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss supply-demand dynamics across the commodity landscape, themes (including energy and technology) incentivizing new investment and the structural positioning of various minerals. They also explore funding the construction phase of new mines, investment horizons, the geopolitical climate and the alliance between environmental and mining interests.

Tariffs, Bonds, and Dollars With James Grant: Macro Matters

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 19:08:00 -0000

The risk to bondholders is that the 2% inflation target becomes unbearable for the Fed, says Jim Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Grant is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, Will Hoffman to discuss the outlook for US financial markets following a sweeping US tariff announcement. The trio discuss the rise of economic uncertainty and the extent to which recession risk may be priced in markets. They also unpack the role of US exceptionalism and persistent goods disinflation in the context of long-term market trends and how it may shift in a world leaning away from free trade.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

US Tariffs and FX Effects - What You Need to Know: FX Moment

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 15:01:00 -0000

It may be all about US tariffs in early 2Q, with the April 2 US tariff announcements and possible retaliation from trading partners risking to entertain increased risk aversion, which bodes well with our bullish view for defensive FX such as the yen. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Bloomberg Economics Chief Trade and Climate Economist, Maeva Cousin, about what tariffs are in place already, what may come next and what are the likely implications - growth and inflation - for the US economy and its key trading partners.

In particular, Maeva shares her latest model findings and how the long list of US grievances with the international trade system could turn into hefty tariff hikes and a sizable stagflation risk for the US.

Leste’s Gennari Is Leaning Into Real Estate Credit: FICC Special

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 10:42:00 -0000

Real estate private credit is uniquely positioned amid the recent wave of loan maturities and reduction in bank capital. Ricardo Gennari, managing director and head of US Real Estate Credit at Leste Group, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief fixed-income strategist, to discuss his firm’s approach to loan origination, liquidity maintenance and portfolio management. Gennari and Sassower assess the potential for alpha generation in real estate private credit, from traditional office and multifamily to data centers and self-storage.

BlackRock’s Rosenberg on Systematic Multi-Strat: Credit Crunch

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 13:01:00 -0000

Factor-driven, trend and pure alpha are among the sleeves within systematic investing that can fuel returns. Jeffrey Rosenberg, managing director and senior portfolio manager for BlackRock Systematic, has spent years identifying and mining such returns. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on Credit Crunch to discuss the evolution of systematic investing, defensive alpha, the opportunity in high-dispersion markets, the evolving microstructure of credit and BlackRock’s “glass box” approach. That and more in this latest episode. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Bloomberg Volatility Forum London 2025 Part II: All Options Considered

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 11:05:00 -0000

There has been growth in the product offering in the crypto options market, which often has a right-tail skew and exhibits spot-up, vol-up dynamics. This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in London on March 18. The panel discussion on the crypto adoption curve was moderated by Anna Edwards, Boomberg News' Anchor, with Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance, University of Sussex and Exponential Science Foundation, Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives, Cboe Global Markets, and James Harris, CCO, Zodia Custody.

Bloomberg Volatility Forum London 2025: All Options Considered

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 13:10:00 -0000

A comfortable environment of US exceptionalism has been replaced by noise around tariff risks, the EU’s fiscal bazooka and US policy pivots, which has supported cross-asset volatility. This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in London on March 18. Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu gave an opening speech on macro and volatility across markets. A panel discussion on the options market was moderated by Noel Hebert, BI’s global director of FICC strategy, with Dennis Davitt, CEO at Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth, Pierre-Henri de Monts de Savasse, senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay and Pierre de Saab, Former Partner at Dominice & Co Asset Management.

A ‘Generational Opportunity’ in Munis: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 11:53:00 -0000

With municipal bond exemptions potentially endangered and credit risks on the horizon, some may consider this to be a transformational time in the muni market. This month we welcome Patrick Haskell, managing director and head of the Municipal Bond Group at BlackRock, to discuss why he thinks it’s a “generational opportunity to capture income” within the muni market. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk with Haskell about the opportunities in high yield, the rise of active ETFs and the outlook for munis amid the backdrop of tax-policy uncertainties.

Chilton’s Horan on Fed, Economy and Bonds: Macro Matters

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 18:49:00 -0000

Fed Chair Jerome Powell rehabilitated the word “transitory” and injected it into our understanding of where the economy and inflation are now, says Tim Horan, in this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Horan, the chief investment officer of fixed income at Chilton Trust, joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss the economy and fixed-income markets. Horan said he is avoiding longer-maturity Treasuries, but notes that he finds municipal bonds attractive for investors in some states.

New Mountain’s Holson on Defensive Direct Lending: Credit Crunch

Sat, 15 Mar 2025 10:30:00 -0000

Direct lending remains a pillar of private credit, providing companies with new and flexible sources of financing in today’s high interest-rate environment. Laura Holson, Chief Operating Officer of Credit and Managing Director at New Mountain Capital, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on Credit Crunch to discuss the firm’s focus on “defensive growth” direct lending, and expansion into other areas of the private credit markets, including BDCs and CLOs. The conversation touches on collaboration within New Mountain, deal sourcing, the addressable market, direct lending risk premiums, secondary market viability, and more.

Tariffs, Debt Brake, Fed and ECB Impact on Credit: Credit Crunch

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 08:02:48 -0000

Government bonds sold off in the past weeks, due to tariff news from the US and the debt brake being eased soon in Germany and this has increased the probabilities of rate cuts by central banks, including the Fed. Credit rallied through this mayhem and the big question is, will this strength continue? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Pierre Krief, Head of Credit at CDC (Caisse Des Depots ET Consignations) discuss tariffs and debt brake effect on inflation, growth and central bank policy, its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after the big rates moves.

They discuss rates, yields and credit spreads along with curve steepening, the dollar weakness and their impact on credit.

Anchorage’s McGrath Breaks Down LMEs: State of Distressed

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 11:18:00 -0000

“Even if we hear rumblings that NDAs are out there with third parties and private lenders are looking at assets,... we’re still in a position where — why wouldn’t they come back to us — because we have more to give,” said Patrick McGrath, partner at Anchorage Capital. “If I’ve invested in a structure and I have a group, I can give them more time. That’s valuable. I can address interest rates. I can probably provide the money a little bit cheaper and I can give them certainty as opposed to them saying I’m going to finance the business away.” McGrath sat down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku at the Wharton Restructuring & Distressed Investing Conference last month (8:00). He dove into the intricacies of liability management exercises, including the asymmetry of information, discerning whether “deals away” are credible, and the importance of institutional reputation.

Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Brendel discuss how March may shake up complacent high yield and syndicated loan markets. The podcast concludes with a BI roundtable discussion covering J&J, Franchise Group, Spirit Airlines, Yellow, Ardagh, WW International, and Serta Simmons (1:14:20).

Artisan’s Cirami Dusts Off the EM Cold War Playbook: EM Lens

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 11:20:00 -0000

It’s back to the future in emerging-market debt, and creditors should look to the Cold War when analyzing geopolitical risk in global fixed-income portfolios. Michael Cirami, Managing Director at Artisan Partners and a portfolio manager for EMsights Capital Group, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his company’s approach to investing across the emerging and frontier debt markets. Cirami and Sassower assess the potential for alpha generation in EM fixed income, from off-benchmark positioning and idiosyncratic risk to shifting inflation dynamics and deteriorating growth expectations.

Dollar at Crossroads as Tariffs, Growth Path Evolve: FX Moment

Sat, 01 Mar 2025 08:00:00 -0000

The weakening path recently observed through US survey evidence has yet to be confirmed by a sustained turn in the core economic news flow, but if confirmed, this could entertain a more bearish dollar outlook than envisaged at the start of the year. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Valentin Petrescou, senior portfolio manager at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, discuss the US dollar outlook amid an ever-evolving tariff narrative, with Petrescou arguing that a trade war scenario may not be all that dollar bullish in the current economic cycle. The two also discuss the merits of yen exposure in FX diversification strategies and conclude a euro-dollar parity scenario is fading.

Delos’ Lefkovits on Private Credit, Default Trend: Credit Crunch

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 13:02:34 -0000

Hybrid capital solutions may aid small and medium enterprise companies confronting balance-sheet challenges amid persistently high borrowing costs. Ari Lefkovits, managing partner at Delos Capital, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss trends in private credit markets, and Delos’ advisory and principal investment approach. The conversation digs into the adoption of co-op agreements between lenders, transformations in the default process, hybrid capital benefits as well as inflation and tariff impacts.

CRE Sentiment and Risks with CREFC’s Pendergast: Macro Matters

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 18:46:07 -0000

A spate of economic and political headlines has traders working harder than usual to assess US indicators for clues on interest rates and property markets. In this episode of the Bloomberg Intelligence Macro Matters Podcast, Lisa Pendergast, president and CEO of CREFC, joins host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey, senior REIT analyst Jeffrey Langbaum and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss all things commercial real estate. They discuss changes in sentiment post-Covid-19 and relative value across market segments. They also examine the potential for continued office-space conversions, and how the industry is approaching its maturity wall with the Federal Reserve on hold.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Gemcorp CEO Delivers Masterclass in EM Private Credit: EM Lens

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 12:06:03 -0000

Atanas Bostandjiev, founder & CEO of Gemcorp Capital Management, joins BI chief emerging markets fixed-income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his firm’s approach to engineering performance and mitigating risk in emerging and frontier markets. Securitization expertise is critical when extending private credit to local operators across emerging markets, with heavy focus on principal protection and repayment. Bostandjiev and Sassower examine loan structuring, deal flow, exit strategies and currency risk, as foreign creditors’ appetite for incremental carry extends to EM.

VIX, Rates Vol, Gold With Susquehanna: All Options Considered

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 13:18:00 -0000

There has been a lot of information for the market to digest so far this year and rates volatility has drifted lower with the Fed on hold for now, while elevated US economic policy uncertainty has helped support VIX. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhuis joined byChris Murphy, Co-Head Derivative Strategy atSusquehanna, to discuss cross-asset volatility and flows.

Catastrophe Bonds & Extreme Events With Man AHL: Credit Crunch

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 11:30:00 -0000

Catastrophe bonds offer issuers additional capacity for underwriting risk, while providing investors with a stream of uncorrelated returns. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier are joined by Tarek Abou Zeid and Andre Rzym, partners and portfolio managers at Man AHL to discuss the growth and adoption of cat bonds. The discussion gets into real-world examples, from Hurricanes Andrew and Milton, to the 2006 FIFA World Cup. They also talk about primary vs. secondary markets, payout structures, cybersecurity and terrorism, target investors and much more.

Sustainability Makes SMAs Tick: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 13:31:58 -0000

Despite economic data once again signaling inflation is on the rise, the future of rate cuts becoming uncertain and an evolving fiscal-policy landscape, there’s much to be optimistic about within the muni market. On this month’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk to Tim Coffin, Director of Sustainability at Breckinridge Capital Advisors. We discuss the rise in separately managed accounts and how the demand for sustainable investing is unlikely to wane.

Dissecting Fixed Income With Wellington’s Khurana: Macro Matters

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 18:57:51 -0000

If the economy evolves a certain way, the Federal Reserve isn’t far from cutting rates more than the market thinks, says Wellington Management Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana. Khurana joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest-Rate Strategist Ira Jersey and senior Canada and US rate strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss the current dynamics and trends across fixed-income markets. The trio examines the shifts in the US inflation outlook and subsequent market pricing for Fed policy action, as well as the state of the domestic labor market. They highlight the potential shifts in fiscal policy under the new administration and the changes to nominal growth and wage expectations under several scenarios.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Derrough on Restructuring’s 3D Chess: State of Distressed Debt

Sat, 08 Feb 2025 11:30:00 -0000

In his 35 years on Wall Street, Moelis’ Global Co-Head of Capital Structure Advisory Bill Derrough hasn’t seen a rescue-financing environment as robust as today, “where we [can] run so many parallel processes at the same time.” As one of the key bankers behind Hertz’s successful bankruptcy auction and American Airlines’ game-changing Chapter 11 exit merger, Bill shares with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel some “war stories” and his insights on trends in liability-management exercises, the rise of cooperation agreements and developing creative restructuring solutions (6:00). Prior to that, Noel and Phil discuss the high yield market’s historically-tight spreads and 4.5-year respite from a surge in distressed inventory. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a round-table discussion covering Serta Simmons’ impact on equitable mootness, Hertz, Yellow Corp., Spirit Airlines, GOL Airlines and Franchise Group (1:30:00).

High Yield 1Q Investor Survey, Europe vs. US Views: Credit Crunch

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 07:00:00 -0000

High yield credit had a strong 2024 as yields rallied and spreads followed, while defaults didn’t blow up as feared. In Europe, the index default rate stands at a low 2.5% and the US at 1.1%, while the share of stressed and distressed bonds drastically came down. Will 1Q sustain those gains, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief European credit strategist, discusses the results of the team’s 1Q25 High Yield Survey, along with the market outlook, with Marco Salcoacci, senior high yield fund manager at Union Investments. The report covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They assess how deeply high yield prospects differ between Europe and the US.

Tariff Mercy Helps Sterling, but Cyclical Pain Stays: FX Moment

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 09:27:00 -0000

The pound may be getting a bounce from the optimism that the UK could dodge President Donald Trump’s tariffs as trade headlines roil global markets, but not all is rosy for the British currency on the domestic cyclical front. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss the pound’s position vs. peers on the tariff narrative front, UK’s near-term economic prospects and the Bank of England monetary policy outlook ahead of the Feb. 6 meeting. They also look beyond the positive dollar narrative to identify strong G-10 FX views for 1Q, with the bullish cyclical and structural yen case in the limelight at a time when defensive currency positioning makes sense.

Global Central Bank Review and Geopolitical Risks: Macro Matters

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 22:11:29 -0000

Markets may be having to assess more than the normal number of cross currents in the economy right now, with a new US administration, stock volatility and a host of geopolitical developments. On this episode of the Bloomberg Intelligence Macro Matters podcast, host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Frank Rose, president of Chevalier Strategic Advisors, to discuss the primary geopolitical risks the US faces in coming years. They also review key appointees from the Trump administration and their potential influence on international policy, while exploring the threats stemming from Eurasia, with a focus on Russia-China relations. Jersey is also joined by BI’s Chief European rates strategist Huw Worthington and senior rates strategy associate Will Hoffman. They examine the results of the recent Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings, and what those may mean for the path of monetary and yield curves.

Arini’s Lemssouguer on Dislocated European Credit: Credit Crunch

Mon, 27 Jan 2025 11:15:00 -0000

European credit markets have gone through a significant shift in market dynamics over the past five years, as low-interest-rate debt is coming due and traditional sources of financing retreat. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier are joined by Arini Capital Management CIO and Founder Hamza Lemssouguer on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss how Arini is capitalizing on structural inefficiencies in high yield credit markets. The conversation gets into the founding of the firm and their approach to running a long/short book before touching on the extension into CLOs, dispersion despite tight spreads and the impact of shifting costs of capital.

The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Crypto, Multi-Asset Volatility With CBOE: All Options Considered

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 11:31:30 -0000

It may be a good year for the volatility market as pro-business government policies and elevated equity exposure that drive market overshoots could see high reactivity on the downside. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on market volatility and is joined by Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. They discuss cross-asset volatility, flows and crypto options market.

Benefit Street’s Byrne on Multifamily CRE Appeal: Credit Crunch

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 12:38:00 -0000

As others head for the exit from the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, Benefit Street Partners President Richard Byrne views this as the perfect time to fill the funding void that could arise. Byrne joins hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on Credit Crunch to discuss the budding opportunity in CRE as a result of higher interest rates. The discussion gets into CRE debt vs equity, an impending CRE maturity wall, the multifamily sweet spot, relative value within direct lending and much more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

Muni Road Ahead Looks Bright: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 11:30:00 -0000

With expectations for future tax cuts softening and muni yields levels remaining attractive, greater buying opportunities may be on the horizon in munis. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Mark Paris, chief investment officer and head of Municipals at Invesco. They discuss why the outlook on muniland looks bright, and why muni issuers are well positioned to manage future policy shifts.

Debts, Deficits and Bonds With Schwab’s Jones: Macro Matters

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 20:22:23 -0000

The two standout risks with the new US administration are tariffs and immigration policy, Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab, says in the latest episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Macro Matters podcast. Jones is joined by host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the outlook for Treasury markets and the economy. The pair discuss the recent drivers of yields across the curve, as well as inflation and potential fiscal risks to growth as the new administration enters office. They also hit on government debt and deficits, and how these influence bond market valuations.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Leveraged Loan, CLO Outlook 2025, US vs. Europe: Credit Crunch

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 17:22:15 -0000

CLOs are driving loan supply and in this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Credit Strategist and Desmond English, Head of European Leveraged Loans at Amundi, reflect on how both the US and European leveraged loan markets fared last year and the outlook for loans in 2025.

They discuss BI's leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth relative to the bond market and private credit in detail and also address the outlook for CLO issuance, reinvestment risks and arbitrage evolution and implications for 2025.

HSBC’s Kettner Is Leaning Into High-Beta Asset Classes: EM Lens

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 11:30:00 -0000

High-beta asset classes will likely swing on US-centric narratives, but the country’s financial conditions remain supportive despite a less dovish Federal Reserve. Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his investment outlook for 2025, with US equities, high-yield debt and emerging-market credit standing out. Kettner and Sassower touch on trade policy under President-elect Donald Trump, the fiscal challenges facing China, historically tight credit spreads and the continued pursuit of incremental carry.

The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Waterfall’s Raghavan on CRE’s Outlook: State of Distressed Debt

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 14:29:00 -0000

“There is one AAA bond that has taken a loss so far in CMBS. There will be plenty more.” Waterfall Asset Management’s Head of ABS Strategy Keerthi Raghavan didn’t mince words in laying out his view of the office real estate market, one of the few corners of the credit universe offering significant distressed opportunities. Raghavan, speaking with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel, examined the widely different segments of the commercial real estate market, his data-centric approach to investing and strategies employed amid distressed situations (5:50). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel highlighted the risks investors take when the market speculation is high, evidenced by historically tight spreads and a dearth of distressed debt. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two analysts for a round table discussion covering Ligado Networks, Serta Simmons, Party City, Hertz, Incora, and CommScope(1:25:40).

Key interview take aways and time stamps:

Approach to active portfolio management: Thematic vs. idiosyncratic (00:18:30)
Assessing building quality and valuation of an asset (00:34:00)
Trading, sourcing and liquidity of CRE credit risk (00:46:40)
CRE investor base and price discovery: Valuations of RE vs. CRE debt (00:55:00)
Workout process dynamics and misalignment between counterparties (01:08:45)
Market outlook and risks over the coming 12-24 months (01:20:30)

PineBridge’s Oh on Favorable Credit Environment: Credit Crunch

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 11:30:00 -0000

Incoming pro-growth policy, while inflationary in nature, could result in a strong credit environment in the eyes of PineBridge Investments’ Global Head of Credit, Steven Oh. Oh joins Bloomberg Intelligence corporate credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to walk through various macroeconomic pathways. The conversation touches on central-bank policy expectations and the geopolitical climate, before diving into portfolio composition, sector exposures and the current default landscape.

No One-Way Dollar View in 2025; Timing Turn Is Tricky: FX Moment

Tue, 07 Jan 2025 16:25:36 -0000

The path of least resistance continues to be cyclically driven dollar-bullish and euro-dollar-bearish views into early 2025, but that’s a narrative that’s priced in, extended and crowded. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Constantin Bolz, head of G10 FX for UBS’ Chief Investment Office, about what could trigger a turnaround in the euro-dollar fortunes in 2025, with several “known unknown” potential game changers when it comes to how much dollar upside is likely. The two also touch on non-dollar, strong G10 currency convictions, with Bolz favoring the Aussie, the yen and sterling in diversification strategies.

Diamond Hill’s Song on Credit Outlook, Landscape: Credit Crunch

Fri, 27 Dec 2024 11:30:00 -0000

The short end of the curve may be better positioned than longer-dated bonds as the interest rates are likely to stay high for longer, with president-elect Donald Trump’s policies potentially amplifying the challenges of bringing inflation to the 2% target, says Henry Song, portfolio manager for Diamond Hill Capital Management. On the latest episode of Credit Crunch, Song and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier discuss real positive yields, favorable carry for shorter-dated credit across corporates and securitized products as well as housing-related credit, thinking through portfolio construction and technology in trading.

Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Middle-Market Lending With Marathon’s Lueker: Credit Crunch

Mon, 23 Dec 2024 11:35:00 -0000

A resilient macroeconomic environment, along with rising M&A activity, have the direct-lending space primed for additional growth in the coming years. Curt Lueker, managing director and head of direct lending at Marathon Asset Management, joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss how the firm is capitalizing on its expertise in the core middle-market sector. The conversation dives into the firm’s recent partnership with Webster Bank, the investment committee process, secondary markets, central bank policy and much more.

Market Outlook Post December FOMC With Ben Emons: Macro Matters

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 21:18:50 -0000

Markets are front-loading the effect of potential Trump policy changes in 2025, which will keep volatility elevated says Ben Emons, founder and outsourced chief investment officer of Fed Watch Advisors. Emons is joined by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey, chief US rate strategist, and Will Hoffman, senior US and Canada rates strategy associate, to discuss the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the implications for markets in the year ahead. They discuss moves across domestic markets, including curve behavior and drivers in Treasuries, as well as the potential for additional volatility across global markets in 2025. The trio also hits on cross-currency hedging costs and direction, as well as technical adjustments to Fed policy, as it attempts to alleviate some stress in funding markets.

How Big Banks See 2025’s Muni Outlook: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 16:22:49 -0000

A new administration and the specter of inflation are among the levers for municipal bonds moving into next year. On this month’s Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three bank strategists with differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2025.Peter Degroot, head of municipal research and strategy at JPMorgan; Vikram Rai, who leads municipal-markets strategy at Wells Fargo; and Mikhail Foux, chief of municipal research at Barclays reflect on this year’s muni performance and discuss their calls for the year ahead.

KKR’s Pietrzak on Private Credit Scale, Value: Credit Crunch

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 14:27:17 -0000

Private credit has expanded toward $2 trillion for direct lending and related markets, with another $5 trillion in asset-based finance, making for ample lender opportunities in the view of Daniel Pietrzak, KKR partner and global head of private credit. Pietrzak rejoined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the market’s growth, the current risk climate and how the incoming presidential administration may influence the market opportunity. They also examine the recent growth in investment grade private credit, the risk transfer market and prospects for an active secondary.

2025 High Grade and High Yield Outlook, US vs. EU: Credit Crunch

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 06:30:00 -0000

With credit markets enjoying a strong 2024 and with many uncertainties, charting the course for 2025 is a challenge. Will US trade policies slow Fed cuts and will ECB easing stay the course as priced, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields filter into Europe? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marc Rovers, Head of European Credit at Legal & General Investment Management, discuss the state of credit and the 2025 outlook for US and Europe.

They tackle relative value across credit on both sides of the Atlantic; high yield and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the risks across the US, UK and Europe, including German and French politics.

Do EM Country Fundamentals Really Even Matter Anymore?: EM Lens

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 11:30:00 -0000

Emerging-market central banks have historically followed the Federal Reserve, yet 2025 will be a year of divergence as monetary and fiscal policy responses evolve. Sergey Goncharov, portfolio manager and head of fixed income Americas at Vontobel, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his year-ahead outlook for the EM fixed-income asset class. Goncharov and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US protectionism and Chinese stimulus to European growth and EM fund flows.

The Year Ahead in Rates, Credit and Currencies

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 10:53:00 -0000

Ol' Saint FICC is here to stuff your stockings with 2025 market outlooks from all your favorite podcast hosts. Rates, credit, municipals, EM, MBS, currencies, bankruptcy and volatility are all covered, while the team also takes a brief look back at memorable moments of 2024.

Bain’s Rufino on Special Sits Strategy: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 13:46:00 -0000

“A marriage…chemistry… [and] shared vision” is how Bain Capital partner Angelo Rufino described investments centered around a new asset class of hybrid capital that combines features of debt and equity in a conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku that took place live at Beard Group’s Distressed Investing Conference. As Head of Special Situations in North America as well as Head of Corporate Special Situations in Europe, Rufino shared his perspective on the bespoke nature and the “win-win” value proposition of a special situations product that provides both operational value-add and financing capital. (8:36)

Prior to that, Noel Hebert, head of Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed-credit analyst, assessed the impact of an improved M&A environment in a Trump administration on distressed-debt supply. The podcast concludes with Negisa, Phil and Noel discussing the latest developments in Spirit Airlines, J&J’s talc bankruptcy, Yellow, Hertz, Avon and Hearthside. (52:27)

ABS 2025 Market Dynamics With BI’s Rod Chadehumbe: Macro Matters

Thu, 05 Dec 2024 21:15:32 -0000

The significant tightening in corporate bonds recently has left asset-backed securities looking cheaper, says Rod Chadehumbe, Bloomberg Intelligence’s asset-backed securities strategist. Chadehumbe is joined by host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the state of the US ABS market. The pair dive into the engineering of the various types of products, as well as the general risk-reward profiles available to investors. They also hit on the liquidity and volatility dynamics of the asset class, expectations for ABS relative value in 2025 and forecasts for new issuance in the coming year.

Shifting EM Backdrop Will Breed Both Winners and Losers: EM Lens

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 13:35:10 -0000

Emerging-market assets are likely to swing on US-centric narratives, yet domestic growth and inflation dynamics may be of less concern than in previous cycles. Ricardo Adrogue, head of global sovereign debt and currencies at Barings, joinsDamian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the year-ahead outlook for EM credit, rates and foreign exchange. Adrogue and Sassower touch on issues ranging from US trade policy and EM remittances to Chinese deflation and a weaker euro.

The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

No Existential Euro Risk, But It's Not a Rosy Picture: FX Moment

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 11:52:30 -0000

Deteriorating French political headlines are exacerbating the underwhelming French and euro-zone economic narrative, confirming what has become a compellingly euro bearish case into 2025. Still, talk of an existential risk to the currency appears premature, and much of the bad news is arguably priced in. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Elliot Hentov, global head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, about what could trigger a turnaround in Europe's fortunes and how that could impact asset allocations into 2025.

Elliot and Audrey also touch on president-elect Donald Trump's key appointments so far and what they may mean for policy -- particularly trade.

Volatility Bite-Size: All Options Considered

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 17:15:16 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on how the US bond market volatility has remained elevated to equity and FX volatility. Rates volatility may drift lower with the Fed in no hurry but greater conviction on the neutral rate will be the signal for a more meaningful decline given forecast dispersion of policy rates remains a key support.

NAV Lending Prospects With Crestline’s Philipp: Credit Crunch

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 11:34:00 -0000

A slower exit environment for limited partners on the back of elevated rates and inflation has helped drive tremendous growth for the world of NAV lending over the past couple of years. David Philipp, partner in the Fund Liquidity Solutions Group at Crestline Investors, walks through the journey of the asset class with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch. The conversation gets into the evolution of the investor, public-market accessibility, synergies with adjacent Crestline strategies, LP concerns and much more.

Crews & Associates’ Mulholland on Treasury Market: Macro Matters

Mon, 25 Nov 2024 14:38:16 -0000

The biggest change to the Treasury market has been algorithmic trading, and the proliferation of high-frequency trading firms (HFTs) and principal trading firms (PTFs), those two are really the main market makers in the inter-dealer broker screens, says Dan Mulholland, senior managing director and head of sales and trading at Crews and Associates. Mulholland is joined by host, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss evolutions in Treasury trading and market structure. The pair discuss the shifts in depth of book and liquidity intermediation throughout the market, in addition to the drivers and potential risks of the basis trade. They also discuss recent moves in the Treasury market and expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, as well as how they may evolve into 2025.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Navigating CLO Equity With Eagle Point’s Majewski: Credit Crunch

Fri, 22 Nov 2024 11:30:00 -0000

A collateralized loan obligation’s (CLO) reinvestment period is among the keys to the success for the asset class in the view of Eagle Point’s Founder and Managing Partner Tom Majewski. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this edition of Credit Crunch to walk through Eagle Points focus on the higher-risk tranches of a CLO structure, with an emphasis on equity. The discussion touches on holder concentration, the growth in covenant-lite loans, misconceptions around forced selling, synergies with private credit markets and much more.

The Intersection of AI and Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 12:13:52 -0000

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the world of municipal bonds, with predictive analytics, data-driven decision-making and automated portfolio management just some of the ways the technology is transforming public finance. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano take a break from discussing the nuts and bolts of asset management and instead focus on the bits and bytes of how technology is applied to the municipal landscape. Joining us this month is Issac Kuofrom Parametric Portfolio Associates. Issac is a portfolio manager, technologist and painfully shy scratch golfer.

Beach Point’s Sauer on LMEs, Coops: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:00:00 -0000

Lenders must be “hyper-vigilant” at the whiff of a liability management exercise (LME), as cooperation agreements forged in response by the largest lenders often shut off membership once critical majorities are reached, according to Beach Point Capital’s senior vice president Jordan Sauer. Jordan shared with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel how his initial legal work at Wachtell Lipton with lender documentation served him well in identifying credit-agreement vulnerabilities and managing investments amid the jungle of LMEs and coop groups (6:20). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the implications of a historically low high yield spread for credit investors. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering Franchise Group, Hertz, Yellow, Spirit Airlines, J&J, Incora, and CommScope (1:06:30).

US vs. EU Credit Gaps On Election and Rate Cuts: Credit Crunch

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 15:29:04 -0000

With the US election having a clear result and credit markets enjoying a strong run this year, charting the course forward is a challenge. Will a Trump regime slow down Fed cuts and will the ECB continue on its previous easing course, and what will this mean for credit? Will stubborn US yields cause more divergence in credit until 1H25? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and James Turner, Co-Head of EMEA fundamental fixed income at Blackrock, discuss the state of credit and gaps across the US and Europe.

They tackle relative value across credit in different currencies; junk and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; fundamental and curve views. They also detail the impact of elections across the US, UK and Europe.

Deficits, Regulations, and Taxes with Nathan Dean: Macro Matters

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 13:03:29 -0000

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut 25 bps in this election week, not a surprise, but Jerome Powell wasn’t as hawkish as might have been expected. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest-Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Senior Government Analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the implications of the recent election cycle for the US economy and Treasury markets. They discuss the current state of executive policy uncertainty, and potential outcomes of various campaign promises, though Dean doesn’t think the debt ceiling is going to be an issue for the next four years. They also touch on potential changes in tax policies, fiscal budgets, and financial regulations.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Enjoy Dollar Bull US Narrative, With No Complacency: FX Moment

Sat, 09 Nov 2024 10:00:00 -0000

The cyclically-driven bullish dollar narrative got another boost last week, with President-elect Donald Trump's expected pro-growth stance implying a policy mix weighted more to fiscal stimulus and less to monetary steps, which would help the dollar. It's also better positioned if Trump pursues tariffs. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist, about how the economy, the Fed rate outlook and the fiscal trajectory could affect our dollar outlook.

Anna and Audrey touch on how US fiscal woes could impact dollar views via a worsening fiscal premium, though the dollar's role as the global reserve currency won't be challenged any time soon.

Unpacking Growth and Inflation Projections With the IMF: EM Lens

Fri, 01 Nov 2024 10:56:56 -0000

Geopolitical risk remains elevated, yet financial stability doesn’t appear to be a cause for concern as market practitioners turn their attention to year-end. Dr. Jason Wu, IMF assistant director of Monetary & Capital Markets, and Dr. Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Andersen Institute for Finance & Economics, join Damian Sassower, EM Lens podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed income strategist, to discuss the growth and inflation outlook for both advanced economies and emerging markets across the globe. Wu and Natalucci touch on issues ranging from central bank stimulus and US dollar debasement to term premia expansion and the evolution of private credit.

The EM Lens podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

UBS’ Sabatino on Fed Liquidity and SEC Regulation: Macro Matters

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:54:00 -0000

Cash is not on the sidelines. An investment in a money market fund is an actual investment, says Robert Sabatino, head of Global Liquidity Portfolio Management at UBS Asset Management. Sabatino is joined by host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rate strategist Ira Jersey and senior US and Canada rate strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss all things money markets. The trio examine shifts in the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s facilities and the money-fund industry, as well as how recent SEC regulatory changes have affected portfolio-management decisions. They also touch on drivers of volatility in the repo market, such as the growth of the Treasury market relative to intermediation capacity, as well as how money-fund assets may evolve as offering yields fall.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Using Technology to Go Odd-Lot Hunting: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 29 Oct 2024 12:02:07 -0000

Investors have poured $13 billion into high-yield municipal bond funds in recent weeks, a move that underscores the need for credit analysis and active investing, says Alex Petrone, managing director and head of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk with Petrone about using technology to assist in credit research in the highly fragmented muni market, how quickly fixed income asset management is changing and what 2025 may bring.

Listen Now: Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence

Sun, 27 Oct 2024 12:00:00 -0000

Reports of active management's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Active continues to grow and evolve in ETFs while mutual funds prosper and define benefit plans. Bloomberg Intelligence strategy team uncover active opportunities and glean insights from active managers and those who cover the industry. Listen to Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence.

400 Capital’s Hentemann on Securitization Market: Credit Crunch

Fri, 25 Oct 2024 10:30:00 -0000

By engaging across multiple sectors of the structured product markets, 400 Capital Management has the flexibility to independently deal with the unique cycles and phases of the various asset classes. Founder and Managing Partner Chris Hentemann joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through the process of navigating through those cycles. The conversation touches upon asset class allocations, the risk-transfer market, joint venture benefits, the attraction of commercial real estate, and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

Barings’ Ockerbloom Sees Opportunity in Real Estate: EM Lens

Wed, 23 Oct 2024 11:09:05 -0000

Real Estate remains highly localized, a feature which contributes to its noncorrelated and rate-sensitive nature, says Barings Head of US & European Real Estate John Ockerbloom. He joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s fixed income strategist, to discuss opportunities and risks facing real estate markets across the globe in this episode of BI’s FICC Focus podcast. Ockerbloom identifies opportunities in data centers, self-storage, health care and multiuse real estate. They also talk about what comes next for out-of-favor sectors such as office and retail.

Antares’ Mathew on Direct Lending’s Advantages: Credit Crunch

Mon, 21 Oct 2024 12:00:00 -0000

With plenty of private equity dry powder and a growing supply-demand imbalance, direct lending is well positioned to grow, according to Antares Capital Director of Asset Management, Vivek Mathew. Vivek joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on another special edition of Credit Crunch, recorded at the Greenwich Economic Forum. They discuss the benefits of being under the wing of the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the refinancing cycle, Antares’ co-investment approach, secondary-market viability and more.

Active Muni ETFs Are a Brave New World: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 10:30:00 -0000

The record growth in municipal bond ETFs, and more specifically actively managed muni ETFs, has led to more innovative alternative strategies. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management. They discuss Simplify’s ETF strategies and how option selling can improve a portfolio’s risk-adjusted returns.

Abrdn’s McCann on Fed Narratives and Fiscal Risks: Macro Matters

Thu, 17 Oct 2024 19:18:00 -0000

It does look like the Fed is nailing this soft landing, so we’re feeling quite positive around where we’re going, says James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at Abrdn. McCann joins host and senior US and Canada rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to unpack rapidly shifting economic narratives. The pair discuss changes in the the medium-term economic outlook, as well as recent developments regarding the state of labor markets and inflation. They also dive into the implications of strikes and hurricanes on near-term economic data, in addition to the balance of risks surrounding the upcoming US election cycle.

Polen Capital on Its Multiasset Solutions Outlook: Credit Crunch

Wed, 16 Oct 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Polen Capital, with deep roots in the world of growth equity investing, has expanded into the opportunistic high yield bond market, leveraging its acquisition of DDJ Capital in 2021. Polen CEO, Stan Moss, and Head of Credit, Dave Breazzano, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this special edition of Credit Crunch, live from the Greenwich Economic Forum. The conversation dives into the firm’s focus on growth, the benefits of a flexible high yield investment approach, leadership through uncertain times, the credit cycle and more.

High Yield 4Q Investor Survey, Europe vs. US View: Credit Crunch

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 14:53:28 -0000

High yield credit had a strong year (to date), as yields rallied and spreads followed, while defaults didn't blow up as feared. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 2.7% and the US at 1.2% but the share of stressed and distressed bonds has come down. Will 4Q sustain those gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q High Yield Survey, along with market outlook, with Peter Khan, Global High Yield Portfolio Manger at Fidelity Investments.

They discuss the BI 4Q investor survey report, which covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They discuss deeply how high yield prospects differ between Europe and the US.

Mercer’s Nuzum: Lean Into Emerging and Frontier Markets: EM Lens

Mon, 14 Oct 2024 19:05:22 -0000

Globalization has slowed, yet access to local markets is improving, and the EM asset class remains underrepresented in most global portfolios. In this episode of the EM Lens podcast, Rich Nuzum, executive director and global chief investment strategist at Mercer, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief emerging market fixed-income strategist, to discuss the Mercer’s affinity for emerging market assets and their role within large institutional portfolios. Globalization has slowed, yet access to local markets is improving, and the EM asset class remains under-represented in most global portfolios. Nuzum and Sassower touch on supply chain diversification, demographics, total return expectations and terms of trade.

Nouriel Roubini on Policy Stimulus, Stagflation & Geopolitical Risk: FICC Focus Special

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 10:31:00 -0000

Despite the recent spike in volatility, investor sentiment is broadly positive, yet tail risks are emanating as we push into year-end. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman & CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, joins BI Chief Emerging Market Fixed Income StrategistDamian Sassower, to discuss policy stimulus, growth potential and inflationary price pressures across the globe. Roubini and Sassower touch on issues ranging from diminished US exceptionalism and extreme China pessimism to elevated Mideast tension and the accompanying passthrough to commodities.

Bloomberg Volatility Forum NYC 2024: All Options Considered

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 11:52:09 -0000

This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in NYC on October 1st. It starts with the opening speech by BI’s chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets, followed by the discussion from the first panel on the options market by Pierre De Saab, partner at Dominice, Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management, and Deniz Cicek, Portfolio Manager at Axonic Capital. The panel is hosted by Noel Hebert, Direction of FICC Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence.

BlackRock’s Lynam Constructive on Credit Outlook: Credit Crunch

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Private credit markets have seen tremendous growth over the past decade, establishing themselves as viable sources of funding for companies across the rating spectrum. That growth may not slow down anytime soon, according to Amanda Lynam, head of Macro Credit Research at BlackRock. Lynam joins Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on this episode of Credit Crunch to walk through trends in the corporate-credit space. The discussion hits on how corporate credit spreads could tighten, the ebbs and flows of financing mix, the default cycle, regional relative value and much more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

JFW’s Jon Weber on Post-Reorg Boards: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 12:30:00 -0000

“LMEs buy time for the sponsor, but I’m increasingly seeing that that’s all it really does.” Jon Weber, founder of JFW & Co., doesn’t mince words regarding the effectiveness of the popular restructuring strategy. Liability management exercises leave executives with a “sword of Damocles” over their heads, failing to really fix anything and with an aftermath that remains a management distraction, Weber told Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel, in October’s feature interview for the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Weber shared his perspectives, honed at Icahn Enterprises, Goldman Sachs and Elliott Management, on running effective boards and companies post-reorganization (6:30). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discussed the complete dearth of distressed-debt inventory, as the distressed ratio plummeted to a 5.2% 28-month low in September. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion covering J&J’s latest Talc news, Hertz make-whole appeal, Audacy, Yellow, Tupperware, Telesat and what qualifies as a consensual release these days (59:00).

This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

State of US Systemic Risks with DiMartino Booth: Macro Matters

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 19:38:00 -0000

In the beige book, you see all 12 districts reporting declining spending in some way shape or form, and that’s unheard of: There is no such thing, and I think that is what got the attention of the Federal Reserve, says Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for QI Research. In this edition of the Macro Matters podcast, Booth joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief North American rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss changes to the microstructure of the US Treasury market, as well as some of the largest systemic risks to financial markets. The duo also touch on potential Fed reforms and changes to bank-capital rules affecting market-making activity and liquidity in US Treasury markets.

China Stimulus No FX Game Changer After Cyclical Lift: FX Moment

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 15:57:36 -0000

China's recent monetary and fiscal stimulus announcements may bring near-term cyclical relief and add to the bullish case for yuan-proxy currencies like the Australian dollar and may help to contain euro downside amid underwhelming domestic news flow. Yet a longer-term, structural boost is debatable. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX Strategist, talks to Dr Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman's global head of market strategy, about how the recent measures from China could shape the dollar outlook later this year and into 2025.

Win and Audrey also touch on how China could affect the euro as Europe's economic news flow disappoints, plus the US economic outlook and how the US presidential election might drive the dollar view.

FS Investments’ Beckman on Opportunistic Credit: Credit Crunch

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 18:58:38 -0000

The corporate credit landscape could face uncertain times ahead, with upcoming elections, policy shifts and global conflicts. Andrew Beckman, Head of Global Credit at FS Investments, joins Credit Crunch’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the firm’s approach to investing across public and private markets. The conversation delves into current risk-reward levels, the credit-quality sweet spot, leveraging the broader FS infrastructure, creditor-on-creditor violence and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.

Rate Volatility and Central Banks: All Options Considered

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 11:25:07 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Chief UK Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.

Vontobel’s Jackson on Outlook for Global Fixed Income: EM Lens

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 10:53:16 -0000

Andrew Jackson, head of fixed income at Vontobel Asset Management, joins BI chief emerging market fixed income strategist Damian Sassower, to discuss portfolio positioning and market expectations after the US Federal Reserve’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut. Despite the rise in volatility, investor sentiment toward emerging-market debt remains positive, yet tail risk remains elevated as 4Q approaches. Jackson and Sassower touch on issues ranging from new issuance and secondary-market liquidity to credit quality and default protection.

SVP’s Woltery on Opportunity in Europe: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 10:30:00 -0000

SVP operates as “one big virtual global office” built on three functional “pillars” — sourcing, dealmaking and its operating partners — according to HJ Woltery, the firm’s co-head of the European investment team. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel had an in-depth feature interview with Woltery on European distressed debt. They delved into SVP’s investment approach and how the restructuring landscape varies from the US and among European countries (7:15). Prior to that, Hebert and Brendel discussed August’s telecom-led credit rally and what the start of rate cuts means for the corporate credit cycle. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku joining the two for a roundtable discussion covering Avon, Hertz’s make-whole decision, Gol airlines, TPG, Diamond Sports, Mallinckrodt, Yellow Corp. and the proliferation of cooperation agreements (1:02:25).

Unemployment at 5% May Escalate Fed’s Rate Cuts: Macro Matters

Thu, 19 Sep 2024 18:44:45 -0000

The new supercore CPI to watch is the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, given US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on monthly non-farm payroll gains, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong is joined by Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to discuss key details and takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s 50-bp rate cut and accompanying policy announcement. The pair unpack the implications of changes in the Fed’s summary of economic projections as well as the outlook for the economy relative to current market pricing. They also discuss potential implications for monetary policy in the context of the upcoming presidential election.

The Future of Financial Research, With BI’s Dwyer: Macro Matters

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 12:00:00 -0000

With artificial intelligence tools, we think we can cover more, in more depth and with the same number of people, and we can be faster to market, says David Dwyer, director of global research at Bloomberg Intelligence. In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Dwyer joins host and BI chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the future of financial research within the context of rapid technological advancements. With BI celebrating its 15-year anniversary, the pair discuss the history of tech adoption and productivity gains within the financial-research sector, as well as how machine learning and AI tools will drive evolution in analysts’ workflows.

Solutions in a Changing Muni Landscape: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 13 Sep 2024 12:00:00 -0000

The performance of the broad muni index has been positive this year, while also notably falling short of the stronger showing by its fixed-income counterparts. However, the real winners can be found in the lower-rated muni credit rungs, with the Bloomberg Muni High Yield index leading the way. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by John Loffredo, vice chairman of MacKay Shields, to discuss the changing landscape of munis and how risk-managed relative-value approaches can help uncover opportunities.

Are Spreads Pricing Fed, ECB Cuts for Perfection?: Credit Crunch

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 14:13:27 -0000

Credit markets have had a strong year, a few blips notwithstanding. After the ECB cut rates twice, the BOE once and with the Fed about to embark on a long cutting cycle, are credit spreads too tight and priced for perfection? Is the rally in yields justified on expected rate cuts until 1H25? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Jamie Irvine, investment director at abdrn, discuss the state of credit across the US, UK, and Europe.

They tackle relative value across credit in different currencies; junk and high grade; fund flows and supply; defaults and ratings; and fundamental views. They also address the sterling credit market, and the impact of elections across the US, UK and Europe.

US Politics Could Soon Revive De-Dollarization Talk: FX Moment

Tue, 03 Sep 2024 15:22:15 -0000

The dollar's status as the ultimate global reserve currency is intact and the currency is still leading on the International Monetary System's key parameters. Yet geopolitics and China's efforts to push for internationalization of the yuan are keeping FX regionalization and de-dollarization topical. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, and BI chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu discuss how the looming US presidential election might affect de-dollarization.

Stephen and Audrey also touch on some key themes covered in their latest FX Deep Dive: ''De-Dollarization, FX Regionalization and the Yuan's Expansion'', including the role of gold as a factor in the de-dollarization debate. The deep dive can be found at BI CURR on the terminal.

VIX at 65, MOVE Above 100: All Options Considered

Fri, 30 Aug 2024 13:25:20 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu covers the VIX at 65 being due to market technicals and unreflective of fundamentals, as well as the support for rates volatility from uncertainty around the pace and extent that policy rates decline rather than the direction of travel, which is clear cut.

Schroders’ Graham Seeks Alpha in EM Corporate Credit: EM Lens

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 11:09:14 -0000

Emerging Market corporate and quasi-sovereign debt is outperforming the broader EM sovereign-credit complex, as the asset class returns to favor following years of below-average bond issuance. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Emerging Market Portfolio Manager at Schroders Autumn Graham joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower, chief EM credit strategist, to discuss the risk-return tradeoff in EM corporate credit. Graham and Sassower touch on issuer fundamentals, market depth, foreign positioning, geopolitical risk and the impact of deglobalization.

This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Rethinking Macro Credit Patterns via BI STRTE: Credit Crunch

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 07:00:00 -0000

Macro credit trends tend to be based on more of a feel than precise numbers. In this latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Heema Patel, Senior Credit Strategy Associate at Bloomberg Intelligence, delve into proprietary research and data on BI STRTE to make macro credit very precise. Explore their novel spread-prediction model with market and macroeconomic drivers, insights on index metrics -- default rates, rating quality/drift and credit ratios. They also discuss if green bonds are trading at a premium or discount, a methodology contrasting with the conventional greenium calculations.

Lastly, they address the main derivative play in credit, the cash-CDS basis and gain perspective on current market patterns and uncover alpha-generating opportunities.

How Canada’s Economy, Rates Have Diverged From US: Macro Matters

Thu, 22 Aug 2024 18:58:00 -0000

The Canadian economy is rife with potholes that could potentially be hit by a policy mistake, says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey and senior associate rates strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the state of the country’s economy and rate markets. They talk about the key drivers, outlooks and possible risks across the short and medium term, as well as key differences in US and Canadian central-bank mandates and potential policy paths.

The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

Johnston on Credit-Research Data Tools: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 12:21:53 -0000

As we edge closer to a US Federal Reserve rate decision and a presidential election, municipal credit will get more attention. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast, hosts and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano talk to Jennifer Johnston, director of research, municipal bonds, at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. She discusses how technology enhances credit research and why tax policy, slowing tax collections, falling revenues and pressured hospital margins are among areas of concern in 2H and beyond.

SLR Cofounders on Specialty Financing Advantages: Credit Crunch

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 13:13:05 -0000

SLR Capital Partners has built expertise in corporate lending, asset-based financing, life-science credits and other segments over nearly two decades. The firm’s cofounders Michael Gross and Bruce Spohler join Bloomberg Intelligence credit analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to talk about how the firm thinks about underwriting risk across borrowers and the types of investment vehicles they’ve built out. The conversation hits on their principal investment approach, how they deal with problematic loans, the current regulatory environment and more.

Sprayregen on Restructuring Landscape: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 12:36:26 -0000

Don’t expect “gentlemanly” behavior from corporate boards under financial stress, says Hilco Global’s Vice Chairman James H. M. Sprayregen, as they should consider exercising all the rights available to them under credit agreements to maximize enterprise value. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku speak with Sprayregen, who founded Kirkland & Ellis’s restructuring practice more than three decades ago, in this episode of BI’s State of Distressed Debt podcast. They talk about those early days at K&E, his new role at Hilco Global, the jousting among lenders and debtors, the Supreme Court’s Purdue decision and his restructuring outlook (5:38). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil discuss July’s sharply-tighter credit markets and what to make of early August’s wild swings as we head into credit’s toughest months. The podcast concludes with all three examining the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including SVB Financial, J&J, Ardagh, Incora, Diamond Sports, Yellow Corp. and Spirit Airlines (1:05:15).

BIoomberg Intelligence on the Great Dollar-Yen Unwind: FX Moment

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 14:11:00 -0000

The great dollar-yen unwind is under way, with the combined shift to much more dovish Fed-easing prospects and more hawkish BOJ expectations the perfect trigger to the unwind of the yen carry trade. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to BI's Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu about what is still a negative dollar-yen narrative, while acknowledging that the pace of the recent moves have been extreme and aren't likely to be sustained.

Stephen and Audrey also look at the implications of recent yen moves for yuan dynamics and revisit their BEER model, highlighting its useful reference at a time of extreme FX moves.

Future of Fed Policy Changes and Fiscal Scenarios: Macro Matters

Fri, 02 Aug 2024 11:45:00 -0000

The unemployment rate will surprise the Fed, rising to 4.5% at the end of this year, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the July FOMC meeting. The pair discuss Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at the meeting’s Q&A, and what that means for likely rate-policy outcomes. They also the examine potential implications of possible fiscal-policy changes to inflation, trade policy and real-economic activity.

Election Puts Muniland in Its Sights: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 13:49:24 -0000

With US presidential election campaigns in full swing, we thought it prudent to revisit what this year could mean for the municipal bond market in terms of heightened risks -- and even some scenarios where it would benefit. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macroeconomic issues accompanying the election will remain a hurdle. To discuss possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Andrew Silverman and Nathan Dean from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Systematic Credit Growth Seen by Insight’s Benson: Credit Crunch

Mon, 29 Jul 2024 10:25:00 -0000

Increased electronification and the growing prevalence of portfolio trading are creating opportunities for systematic credit, which seeks to harness the explosion of data to create models and strategies, says Paul Benson, head of systematic fixed income at Insight Investment. Benson joins BI credit strategists Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to discuss the history of the systematic approach, model dependency, excess liquidity premiums and identifying relative value. That and more in this latest episode of Credit Crunch. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Bonds Are Not Vegetables Says HSBC’s Steven Major: Macro Matters

Sat, 27 Jul 2024 09:00:00 -0000

Steven Major, HSBC’s global head of fixed-income research, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and BI senior rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss some of the most controversial topics across global bond markets in this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast. The trio dive into the determinants of longer-run equilibrium interest rates and the relationship between supply and yields. They also touch on regulatory constraints on dealer-intermediation capabilities and relative value across global bond markets.

Fed Easing Cycles and Unsustainable Fiscal Policy: Macro Matters

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 18:17:03 -0000

The economy is firing on all cylinders and continues to show positive momentum, says Lara Rhame, chief US economist at FS Investments. Rhame joins Macro Matters co-host and Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey and senior US rates strategy associate Will Hoffman to discuss the major drivers of the US Treasury market. The trio examine how the Federal Reserve may respond to current and future economic conditions, and the impact of various outcomes across asset classes and the Treasury curve. They also discuss the likely path of fiscal policy and the potential implications of sustained deficit spending on longer-maturity Treasury performance.

Central Bank Reserves, Markets, Bitcoin: All Options Considered

Tue, 23 Jul 2024 13:32:00 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matt King, Founder of Satori Insights. They discuss the impact of central bank reserves on cross-asset markets.

Shorecliff’s Nachman on Launching, Running a Fund: Credit Crunch

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 15:12:44 -0000

Shorecliff Asset Management’s Grant Nachman talks about the intellectually-enriching challenges of launching a new firm in this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s Credit Crunch podcast. Grant joins BI’s chief US credit strategist Noel Hebert and his colleague Sam Geier to discuss Shorecliff’s full-cycle credit-investing strategy, the benefits of having a lean team, a bottom-up due-diligence process, the ideal size for the strategy and more.

HSBC’s Ulgen on Emerging-Market Fundamentals, Sentiment: EM Lens

Wed, 17 Jul 2024 10:54:24 -0000

Murat Ulgen, Global Head of EM Research at HSBC, and BI’s Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower discuss how US yields and the dollar have driven emerging-market risk premiums and how resilient the asset class has been to rates repricing throughout 1H. They note dispersion within the broader market, the role of carry and the drivers behind the sentiment change in specific geographies - notably a curtailed bullishness for Latin America, and a shift toward Central and Eastern Europe and Africa. Their conversation spans Turkey, South Africa, China (and its EM role) as well as frontier and distressed markets.

High Yield 3Q Investor Survey, View Ahead of Cuts: Credit Crunch

Tue, 16 Jul 2024 15:02:19 -0000

High yield corporate credit had a strong 1H, despite rates volatility, as spreads rallied and defaults stayed low. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.85% and the share of stressed and distressed bonds has come down, while it's higher in the US. Will 3Q sustain those gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 3Q High Yield Survey, along with market outlook, with Peter Aspbury, Head of European High Yield and PM at JP Morgan Asset Management.

They discuss the BI 3Q investor survey report, which covers investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector. They also discuss how high grade and leveraged loan prospects compare with junk.

Global Elections Permeate Sovereign Bond Markets: Macro Matters

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:11:10 -0000

US congressional partisanship is at it’s highest level ever and there’s no fiscal restraint on either side of the aisle, says Macro Matters host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US rate strategist Ira Jersey. He joined BI’s chief European rate strategist Huw Worthington to discuss the implications of global elections across sovereign debt markets. The pair talk about recent volatility spurred by French and UK elections and their impact on relative value across markets. They also dissect the outcomes of the November US Presidential election and the implications of shifting trade and geopolitical stances on the economy.

Macro Matters is part of the BI FICC Focus pod cast series.

Time to Forget French Politics, Focus on the US Race: FX Moment

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 15:09:20 -0000

French and UK politics generated most headlines in recent weeks -- and France's political conundrum has yet to be solved -- but US politics are likely to take center stage and dictate the dollar's fortunes in the run-up to the Nov. 5 elections. Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to BI's senior government analyst Nathan Dean about the near-term political agenda and what considerations may dominate when it comes to finalizing the Democrats' candidate.

Nathan and Audrey also investigate how a second Trump administration may affect the dollar cyclically-- bullish via trade plus fiscal and monetary policy -- and structurally -- any tilt toward isolationism would be negative for the dollar in the longer term.

Jacoby on Purdue’s Impact; Uptier Rows: State of Distressed Debt

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 12:34:11 -0000

US Supreme Court Justice Brett M Kavanaugh would have a “great career as a restructuring professional,” according to University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill law professor Melissa B. Jacoby, as his Purdue Pharma 54-page dissent mirrored many bankruptcy lawyers’ skepticism regarding the US trustee’s arguments. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed Debt podcast, part of the FICC Focus series, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku interviews Jacoby, author of the new book Unjust Debts, on the impact of the Supreme Court’s Purdue decision on mass tort bankruptcies, including lingering questions about the future significance of consensual third-party releases (6:45). Earlier in the podcast, BI’s Phil Brendel and Noel Hebert discuss how the corporate credit market appears immune to geopolitical risks that don’t alter rate expectations. This episode concludes with all three discussing the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including Incora, Gol Airlines, Mallinckrodt and Diamond Sports (50:15).

Bittersweet Farewell to BN’s Joe Mysak: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 12:23:34 -0000

A lot has changed in the world of munis over the past 40 years, but don’t take our word for it. Joining hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamiranoon the June edition of Masters of the Muniverse is Joe Mysak of Bloomberg News, retiring this month after 40-plus years of covering public finance. In this month’s episode, we discuss Joe’s storied career at Bloomberg, how the muni marke thas changed and what to expect for the second half of the year. To help us bid him farewell, we’re also joined by a few special guests.

US Economic, Rates Outlook with BE’s Stuart Paul: Macro Matters

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 17:54:36 -0000

Watching the household survey portion of the Employment Situation report may be a better indicator of the economy, Stuart Paul of Bloomberg Economics says on this edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Paul joins host Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest rate strategist, to discuss recent economic data trends, the disconnect between surveys and hard data, upcoming data and the BE outlook for monetary policy. Paul says he believes US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may be somewhat dovish at the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, and could use the Jackson Hole symposium to signal a September interest rate cut.

TCW’s Foley Looks to EM Debt for Idiosyncratic Carry: EM Lens

Wed, 19 Jun 2024 10:48:18 -0000

Carry has been the primary driver of EM risk premia in recent years, yet the landscape may be shifting as growth improves, inflation recedes and geopolitical uncertainty takes hold. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Managing Director of Emerging Markets at TCW Penny Foley joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Credit Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss demand for idiosyncratic carry as investors look to EM for uncorrelated streams of future income. Foley and Sassower touch on election risk, foreign positioning, growth dynamics and central-bank policy divergence.

Pretium’s Ouderkirk on Accessing the CLO Market: Credit Crunch

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Diversification, lower default rates and elevated yields are just a few of the features of today’s collateralized loan obligation (CLO) landscape, says Senior Managing Director and Head of Structured Credit at Pretium Jerry Ouderkirk. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss the asset class’ current state and its evolution over nearly two decades. The dialog touches on what backdrops drive primary vs. secondary market allocations, default expectations, loan and CLO dynamics, among other topics.

Matt Doheny on Investing, Yellow, and FTX: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 14 Jun 2024 10:35:00 -0000

Citadel and MFN competing to fund an unsecured junior DIP financing was just one of the "remarkable" aspects of Yellow Corp's ongoing bankruptcy, according to its Chief Restructuring Officer Matt Doheny. The North Country Capital's founder and president sat with Bloomberg Intelligence's (BI) Phil Brendel to share his philosophies on distressed investing, derived from a wide-ranging career in law, finance, and politics. They dive into two of the most fascinating bankruptcy cases of our time -- Yellow Corp and FTX (5:30). Prior to that, Phil and Noel Hebert of BI discuss the high yield market's strength despite some serious headwinds presented by a "higher for longer" environment. The podcast concludes with BI's Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil to tackle the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including Red Lobster, WeWork, Rite Aid, Diamond Sports, J&J, Yellow, Rackspace, Genesis, and FTX (49:50).

G3+ Central Bank, Currency, Interest Rate Outlook: Macro Matters

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 22:00:00 -0000

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed are conflicted on economic data, says Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Marco Strategy Matt Hornbach in this edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Hornbach joins host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the G3+ central bank, currency and interest-rate outlook. Though the totality of recent US economic data has been very confusing, Hornbach thinks a clear trend will soon emerge. The Morgan Stanley base case is for the Fed to start cutting rates in September and do so at each meeting until mid-2025 before stopping. Such an outcome would cause the 10-year Treasury to rally to 3.75%, he said.

Can Start of Rate Cuts Keep Credit Spreads Tight?: Credit Crunch

Tue, 11 Jun 2024 13:53:27 -0000

Credit markets had a strong nine months of rally, particularly in spreads, although there were yield blips. As the environment changes with rate cuts, led by the ECB, are credit spreads too tight, despite low defaults? Is the rally justified on expected rate cuts for the rest of 2024? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Axel Potthof, Head of High Yield at Fisch Asset Management, discuss the state of credit after the first ECB cut and the long rally.

They discuss relative value across junk, high grade and loans, fund flows, defaults, rate cuts and yield-curve views in detail. They also address CLOs and their support for loans, while on private credit, they ask if it is taking anything away from public markets.

US Election Pricing, Income Funds: All Options Considered

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 16:47:07 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matthew Tym, Head of Equity Derivatives Trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. Discussion includes the US presidential election and impact of yield enhancement using options on index volatility.

BoC, Loonie Give Dollar-Bears a Plan B Till Fed Turns: FX Moment

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 19:20:00 -0000

The Bank of Canada's 25-bp June rate cut and statement bolster the view that dollar bears tired of waiting for the Fed could retain the loonie-bear view until a more-dovish US move unfolds, according to the latest FX Moment podcast. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Stuart Paul, US and Canada economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the BoC and Fed near-term dynamics and currency implications.

Canada's more-advanced economic cycle vs. the US justifies the early policy action from the BoC and validates the yield-driven loonie bearish case against the US dollar, euro and sterling. Given the Canadian-US dollar proxy qualities, these views will most likely hold when euro-dollar and/or sterling-dollar bulls return.

Global Economic Decoupling With MKP’s McMahon: Macro Matters

Thu, 30 May 2024 21:18:39 -0000

“You’ve come off a period of 15-plus years of a zero interest-rate policy that has allowed politicians to believe that you can spend money at no cost,” says Patrick McMahon, co-founder and CIO of MKP Capital Management, “And we continue to do that, but now in a tremendously different interest-rate environment.” In this podcast, McMahon is joined by podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey and Associate US Rates Strategist Will Hoffman. The trio discuss the state of the US economy and potential paths forward for monetary policy. They also dive into shifts in global economic conditions and the likelihood of interest-rate correlations breaking down as monetary-policy cycles begin to diverge.

Technological Advancement in Muni SMAs: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 28 May 2024 12:14:04 -0000

Higher-for-longer rates, along with elevated municipal-bond issuance, may signal that attractive entry points for muni investors are here for a bit longer. Though reinvestment season is typically a slower time for new issuance, this is an election year, which may mean issuers will want to avoid the uncertainties that come with every election season. Fund flows and rich ratios are concerns, but the asset class’s ability to provide low-risk, tax-exempt income remains a key feature, especially if inflation pressures increase. Joining hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on the May edition of Masters of the Muniverse is Nisha Patel from Parametric. In this month’s episode, we discuss the market outlook for the second half of the year and how technology overlays are driving Parametric’s strategies to help maximize returns.

17Capital's de Selancy on NAV Lending Expansion: Credit Crunch

Fri, 24 May 2024 10:41:01 -0000

NAV finance has been at the forefront of innovation in private credit markets, seeing tremendous growth since the start of the pandemic, when private equity funds began turning to alternative sources of funding. Pierre-Antoine de Selancy, co-founder and managing partner at 17Capital, joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on Credit Crunch to walk through how he's seen the evolution of the space. The conversation touches on the importance of fund-manager track records, use of proceeds, 17Capital's partnership with Oaktree, and a variety of other topics. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Rabobank’s Lawrence on Investing in a ‘New’ Old World: EM Lens

Fri, 17 May 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Geopolitical uncertainty is causing many developed and emerging market governments to invoke protectionist measures, and this new world order looks similar to the one that predated globalization. In this month’s episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Cooperatieve Rabobank Cross-Asset Strategist Christian Lawrence joins BI Chief EM Fixed-Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share his views on monetary policy, foreign-exchange carry, global growth and real-yield differentials. They also discuss central bank divergence, foreign positioning, inflation dynamics and option volatility.

This podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

PIMCO’s Jerome Schneider on Money-Market Dynamics: Macro Matters

Thu, 16 May 2024 17:26:20 -0000

Stickier inflation is here to say, and we probably aren’t returning to 2% in the near term, says Jerome Schneider, managing director and leader of short-term portfolio management and funding at PIMCO. Schneider is joined by host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey and Associate US Interest Rate Strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the state of short-term liquidity and money markets. The trio examine long- and short-term evolutions of the market, portfolio composition and the regulatory environment. They also wade into asset allocation, investor behavior and Federal Reserve policy.

High Yield 2Q Investor Survey, Loan vs. Bond View: Credit Crunch

Tue, 14 May 2024 14:42:16 -0000

High yield had a great 4Q rally in rates and spreads, which filtered into 1Q gains as defaults stayed low. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.95% and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds has come down, while it's higher in the US. Will 2Q sustain the gains, and why? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 2Q24 High Yield Survey with Fiona Hagdrup, Head of Leveraged Finance Funds and PM at M&G Investments, along with market outlook and trends in a Q&A format.

They discuss our 2Q investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail. They also discuss how leveraged loan prospects compare with junk.

Katten’s Winters on Distressed Governance: State of Distressed Debt

Sat, 11 May 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Investigations into debtors’ pre-bankruptcy machinations are evolving toward a “consensus model” where committees of independent directors are cooperating with unsecured committees, according to Julia Winters, a partner in Katten’s commercial litigation practice. She shared her perspective on corporate governance amid financial turmoil, when Chapter 11 examiners make sense and the critical role indenture trustees play with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel. Prior to that, Phil and Noel Hebert of BI discuss how the uncertain, higher-rate environment is whipping corporate credit spreads around. The podcast concludes with the BI Podcast team tackling the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including J&J, WeWork, Ardagh Group, Yellow, Diamond Sports, Spirit Airlines, 99 Cents Only Stores and Express.

BOJ Intervention Alone Won't Turn Dollar-Yen Fortunes: FX Moment

Thu, 09 May 2024 10:43:08 -0000

The challenges of unilateral FX intervention by the Bank of Japan may mean that a confirmed dovish Fed adjustment and/or a step-up in the BOJ tightening cycle remain the best path to address the cost-of-carry yen conundrum and take dollar-yen lower in the process, according to the latest FX Moment podcast. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G-10 FX strategist, talks to Chris Gaffney, World Markets president at EverBank, about whether it could be time to rejoin the dollar-bearish camp, with a focus on dollar-yen amid BOJ intervention considerations.

However, Fed rate cuts and/or aggressive BOJ rate hikes aren't on the agenda just yet: For now, the best case scenario for dollar-yen bears may be a 155-160 range.

Special Situations Landscape With Polus’ Dafforn: Credit Crunch

Mon, 06 May 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Slowing growth and elevated interest rates are opening the door to fresh opportunities in the special situations world, as companies face growing “time under tension.” Rob Dafforn, chief investment officer of opportunistic credit at Polus Capital Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. Dafforn dives into the three main investment targets — cyclical losers, secular losers and frauds — along with creditor-on-creditor violence, the management process for a long-short portfolio and much more.

Geopolitics, Biden vs. Trump and Markets: All Options Considered

Fri, 03 May 2024 11:20:00 -0000

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Jennifer Welch, Chief Geo-economics Analyst. They focus on geopolitics and market volatility, with topics including the conflicts in the Middle East, oil politics and the US election.

Fed Balance Sheet Runoff and Treasury Issuance: Macro Matters

Thu, 02 May 2024 20:52:23 -0000

Chairman Jerome Powell had opportunities at the May FOMC meeting to put interest rate hikes back on the table and surprisingly did not, says Ira Jersey, host and Chief US Interest Rate Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey is joined by associate US Interest Rate Strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the key takeaways from both the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Department’s May 1 policy announcements. The pair unpack the implications of the announced taper to the pace of Fed balance-sheet runoff, as well as deficit and Treasury-issuance trends over the coming months.

IMF’s Natalucci and Wu on Risks to Financial Stability: EM Lens

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 10:30:00 -0000

Loose financial conditions are helping to alleviate short-term stability concerns, yet medium-term vulnerabilities are rising as the result of less-optimistic monetary policy expectations. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Fabio Natalucci, deputy director of monetary and capital markets at the IMF, and Jason Wu, head of the IMF’s Global Markets division, join Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share their views on underlying asset valuations amid the recent surge in financial market volatility. Natalucci, Wu and Sassower discuss global monetary policy, central bank divergence, foreign exchange carry, Chinese shadow banks and US private credit.

The Economy, the Fed, and the Mortgage Market: Macro Matters

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 20:08:43 -0000

Inflation is holding stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s target, throwing expectations for rate cuts into turmoil and playing havoc with housing and mortgage markets. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI’s chief MBS strategist, and Will Hoffman, associate US rates strategist, to discuss the current and future state of the MBS market ahead of the May FOMC meeting. Adelberg breaks down recent trends across the US housing market, as well as year-to-date performance drivers for the MBS sector. She also examines the structural demand implications of continued MBS runoff from the Fed’s balance sheet.

Rate-Cut Delays Wounded Credit - How Much Longer?: Credit Crunch

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 14:03:49 -0000

Credit markets sold off in the past month, across the board, on rate-cut delays being priced in globally, led by the Fed. It takes us to an interesting juncture where we ask if this has longer to go or is largely done, and how it affects various asset classes in its aftermath.

In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Raphael Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital, discuss the global situation's effect on inflation and central bank policy, its impact on global credit and the challenges of taking a directional view after the selloff. They discuss rates, yields and credit spreads along with curve flattening, the euro weakness and their impact on credit.

Yieldstreet’s CIO on Opening Up Alternatives: Credit Crunch

Fri, 19 Apr 2024 14:44:00 -0000

Alternative investments have historically been available only to institutions and ultrahigh-net-worth individuals, but that may be changing. Yieldstreet Chief Investment Officer Ted Yarbrough says democratizing access to alternatives is the company’s mission. He joined Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier to talk about sourcing deals, leveraging technology and the importance of education when combining illiquid investments with retail clients. Yarbrough also spoke to the disruptive potential of Yieldstreet’s digital-only platform and his long-term outlook for the business. That and more on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Blind Spots in Active Muni Management: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 17 Apr 2024 15:04:14 -0000

Part of being an active manager is not only looking for assets that have an edge, are mispriced or are the next hottest thing, but also learning to avoid pitfalls and blind spots when it comes to municipal credit. In this Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Ben Barber, director of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton, joins BI analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano to discuss municipal active management and best defensive and offensive strategies.

Arena's Zwirn on Flexibilty in Special Situations: Credit Crunch

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 13:45:02 -0000

Complexity and illiquidity are desirable features for Dan Zwirn, CEO, CIO and Co-Founder of Arena Investors. Zwirn talks about the benefits of the special situations strategy, his concern about concurrent asset bubbles, and how partnering with others can benefit the investment process. That and much more as he joins hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier, each of Bloomberg Intelligence, on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

US Rate Markets Refresh After Two Weeks of Mayhem: Macro Matters

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 11:00:00 -0000

The US Treasury’s liquidity-support buyback operations aren’t quantitative easing by a different name, says Bloomberg Intelligence US Rates Strategy Associate Will Hoffman. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Hoffman joins co-host and BI’s Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to unpack the drivers and implications of a tumultuous two-week period for the Treasury market. The pair discuss key economic developments, including the recent CPI surprise that sent yields soaring. They also dive into details of the Treasury’s upcoming buyback operations, as well as the biggest takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes, including commentary on the evolution of the central bank’s balance-sheet policy.

Euro-Dollar Parity Talk, Dollar-Yuan, Intra-Asia FX: FX Moment

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 09:48:35 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, chief Asia FX and rates strategist, reflect on navigating the G-10 and Asia foreign exchange markets in 2Q, while awaiting a shift in US economic data, Fed easing expectations and the dollar's fortunes.

Audrey acknowledges recent chatter about euro-dollar parity, but doesn't embrace the view for now as much bearish news is priced in already. Stephen confirms that dollar-yuan bulls remain at the mercy of a dollar move lower and PBOC support for now, while there are also relevant intra-Asia FX views to consider into 2Q.

Volatility Forum 2024 Part II: All Options Considered

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 09:53:21 -0000

This edition of All Options Considered is part II of the recording of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in London on March 19th. This is the discussion from the second panel on zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs) by David Cross, Co-Head of US options at DASH Financial Technologies, Henry Schwartz VP and Global Head of Client Engagement at Cboe Global Markets, JB Mackenzie, Vice President & General Manager at Robinhood and Zubin Ramdarshan, Head of Equity and Index Product Design at Eurex. The panel is hosted by Bloomberg Anchor Kriti Gupta.

Ken Feinberg on Mass Tort Mediation: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 05 Apr 2024 14:00:18 -0000

Deadlines and ensuring the right parties are at the table are two crucial ingredients for successful mediations, according to Ken Feinberg, who was the Special Master of the Federal September 11 Victim Compensation Fund and has helped administer some of the most complex public crises in American history. He discussed mass tort’s intersection with Chapter 11 with Bloomberg Intelligence Bankruptcy Litigation Analyst Negisa Balluku (6:00). Prior to that, BI’s Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel discuss the risk-on euphoria in the credit markets, exemplified by half the US high yield universe now sporting spreads below 200 bps. The podcast concludes with Noel, Negisa and Phil reviewing ongoing bankruptcy and distressed situations, including Yellow, Genesis, Rackspace, Gol, WeWork, and Rite Aid (36:25).

DiNapoli on NY and Taxpayer Migration: Masters of the Muniverse

Sat, 30 Mar 2024 14:50:28 -0000

New York City hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic, and that leaves both the city and state concerned about future revenue to face any new economic contractions and market volatility. Thomas DiNapoli, State of New York comptroller, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano in this month’s bonus episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast to discuss aligning spending and revenue. This edition marks a slight departure from the previous slate of guests who have brought us perspectives on the market from the sell and buy sides and from data providers. As the economy potentially heads toward a more-volatile period, and with inflation proving to be anything but transitory, one of the largest issuers in the US muni market talks about risks and resiliency.

Volatility Forum 2024: All Options Considered

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 11:15:00 -0000

This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2024 held in London on March 19th. The first part is the opening speech by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets. This is followed by the recording of the discussion from the first panel on VIX and option strategies by Pierre De Saab, Partner at Dominice, Tom Leake, Head of Solutions at Capstone Investment Advisors and Valeriu Trufas, Fund Manager at Atlantic House. The panel is hosted by Bloomberg Anchor and Acting London Bureau Chief, Anna Edwards.

Chatterjee on Carrying in a Low-Volatility Beta Regime: EM Lens

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:46:15 -0000

Event risk will garner greater attention as the emerging-market election calendar heats up in May. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Wells Fargo Global Macro Strategist, FX & Emerging Markets Aroop Chatterjee joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM credit strategist, to share his views on funding currency diversification as the EM carry trade remains alive and well. Chatterjee and Sassower discuss the propensity for currency volatility to mean-revert, debate the impact of China’s economy on the broader commodity complex, and assess the impact of a shallower US Federal Reserve easing cycle on EM interest rate expectations.

Mid-Market Lending With Jim Fellows, First Eagle: Credit Crunch

Sat, 23 Mar 2024 10:00:00 -0000

Philosophy, process, people and performance — that’s what Jim Fellows, co-president and CIO of First Eagle Alternative Credit, says underpins FEAC’s investment approach. Fellows joins hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier, Bloomberg Intelligence credit analysts, on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through the value of culture, the evolution in direct lending, leveraged loans and CLOs, and why he wants credit to just be boring. They discuss mid-market lending, the right risk premium between direct lending and syndicated markets, and how the FEAC team leverages technology to complement the investment process. Credit Crunch is a part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Powell’s Dovish March Surprise With Anna Wong: Macro Matters

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 18:50:15 -0000

I think the Fed is extremely data dependent, if anything, too data dependent, says Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC focus podcast, Wong joins host Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to unpack the March FOMC meeting. The pair discuss the surprises and developments from the meeting, including revisions to the Statement of Economic Projections and their implications for the path of Fed policy. Revisions to longer-run rate expectations, intermeeting black swan events, thresholds for interest rate cuts, and risk cases to economic forecasts are also discussed.

Muni Manager’s Active Focus Bucks Tide: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 15 Mar 2024 16:31:19 -0000

Municipals are starting the year semi-flat, and the latest read on consumer prices won’t do much to alleviate the concern of market participants that performance could be stagnant for the foreseeable future. At the same time, there are still some areas of relative value, even though the absolute tradeoff from late 2023 has faded to a large degree. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by Jason Appleson, managing director and head of PGIM Fixed Income’s municipal-bond team. They discuss market dynamics, credit quality, election predictions and much more.

Is Credit Too Tight On Low Defaults and Rate Cuts?: Credit Crunch

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 16:29:42 -0000

Credit markets had a strong six months of rally, particularly in spreads, although not necessarily in yields. Are credit spreads too tight, and is that supported by low defaults? Is that rally justified on expected rate cuts? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Marina Cohen, Head of European High Yield at Amundi Asset Management, discuss the situation in credit and the specific challenges of portfolio management after a six-month rally.

They discuss relative value across junk, high grade and loans, fund flows, defaults, rate cuts and yield-curve views in detail. Particular attention was also given to private credit markets and how they are interacting with public markets in terms of supply and defaults.

Houlihan Lokey's Hardie on Yet-to-Crest Wave of Distressed Debt: State of Distressed Debt

Sat, 09 Mar 2024 12:00:00 -0000

The distressed cycle is on the upswing as rates pinch post-pandemic borrowers, in the eyes of William ‘Tuck’ Hardie, Managing Director in Houlihan Lokey’s Financial Restructuring Group (3:30). He joined the State of Distressed Debt podcast team to talk liability management transactions, where we are in the cycle, and why the involvement of private credit and CLO investors may mean more persistent distress. Tuck also shares stories from his 20-plus years with Houlihan and speaks to the culture that has enabled the team’s success. Prior to that, Noel Hebert and Phil Brendel of Bloomberg Intelligence review renewed declines in distressed debt and the general state of the market. The podcast concludes with BI’s Negisa Balluku and Phil reviewing ongoing bankruptcy and distressed situations including Gol, WeWork, Yellow, Audacy and Spirit Airlines (1:11:50).

Treasury Market Updates With AmeriVet’s Faranello: Macro Matters

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 18:33:40 -0000

The Federal Reserve is restrictive, and policymakers left themselves room to cut on the way up, says Greg Faranello, head of US rates at AmeriVet Securities. In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Faranello joins hosts Ira Jersey, BI chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, US rates strategy associate, to discuss the state of the Treasury market. The trio examine the recent repricing of Fed policy expectations, outlook for quantitative tightening and the impact of persistent federal deficits on the secondary Treasury market.

What's Next for the Swiss Economy, the SNB and Franc?: FX Moment

Wed, 06 Mar 2024 17:10:00 -0000

In the latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, talks about the Swiss economy, the SNB's outlook and prospects for the franc with Valerie Lemaigre, head of Investment Office and chief economist at Banque Cantonale de Geneve. In particular, Valerie and Audrey explore how the outlook for Swiss growth and inflation may sway SNB near-term monetary policy direction and why the franc's recent underperformance (to the extent that it feeds positively through the inflation channel) takes pressure off the SNB to begin imminent easing.

This suggests that a not-so-dovish March 21 SNB meeting may give the franc temporary breathing space, with a likely euro-Swiss near-term consolidation near 0.95-0.97, while dollar-Swiss remains at the mercy of the greenback's narrative.

JP Morgan’s Maciunas on Shifting Demand for MBS: Macro Matters

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 19:03:22 -0000

MBS demand from banks and international buyers is seen as weakening in the near term as expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut and a taper in the pace of quantitative tightening is being pushed further into 2024, says Nick Maciunas, head of agency MBS research at JP Morgan Securities. In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Maciunas joins hosts Ira Jersey, BI chief US rate strategist, and Erica Adelberg, BI’s chief US MBS strategist, to discuss shifts in MBS market dynamics. The trio dive into the microstructure of the market and how changes in Fed policy expectations impacts securities demand from the banking sector. They also touch on the drivers of the asset class’ recent underperformance and the implications of regulatory changes on hedging behavior.

Driving Illiquid Muni Pricing with AI: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 28 Feb 2024 12:00:00 -0000

For a market notoriously known for resisting change, the municipal bond market is arguably one of the most in need of advanced technologies. Artificial intelligence may finally bring better fair value pricing to munis’ nuanced and illiquid market. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by ficc.ai’s co-founder, Charles Elkan, to discuss how machine learning and muni ETFs can bring real-time pricing to muniland.

SocGen’s Kalen Remains Upbeat on Emerging Market Carry: EM Lens

Tue, 27 Feb 2024 12:41:06 -0000

Emerging market carry should continue to outperform, as the fall in foreign exchange volatility reflects capitulation by dollar bulls. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through edition of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of EM Research at Société Générale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed income strategist, to share her view on valuations and investor positioning across EM local rates, currencies and credit. Macroeconomic risks appear back-loaded to 2H, when US presidential elections may fuel a rise in EM volatility.

Acadian’s Richardson Dives Into Systematic Credit: Credit Crunch

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 11:30:00 -0000

Systematic credit investors seek to capitalize on mispricings that can be overlooked or hard to identify in more traditional investment strategies. Scott Richardson, director of Systematic Credit at Acadian Asset Management, has been at the forefront of the approach and joins Bloomberg Intelligence podcast hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through they keys to success: Identifying relative value, modeling default forecasts, portfolio construction, comparing value in primary vs. secondary markets, examining liquidity premiums and the importance of transparency. Credit Crunch is a part of the FICC Focus podcast series

Bitcoin ETFs, 0DTEs With CBOE: All Options Considered

Mon, 19 Feb 2024 14:40:00 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. They discuss zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), cross-asset volatility and potential for options on Bitcoin ETFs.

Inflation and Policy Pivots with Seth Carpenter: Macro Matters

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 18:31:00 -0000

Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, expects the Federal Reserve to taper its balance-sheet policy in May and to begin easing interest rates in June. Carpenter joins hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategy team to give his views on economies and markets in this Macro Matters edition of the BI FICC Focus podcast. The trio discuss ongoing economic and inflationary dynamics, including the disinflationary process, potential catalysts and impacts of adjustments to the Fed’s balance-sheet policy. Carpenter also digs into the US Treasury Department’s decision-making process when determining the composition of Treasury issuance.

High Yield 1Q24 Investor Survey and Outlook: Credit Crunch

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 16:17:36 -0000

High yield had a great 2023 in both US and Europe, due to a strong 4Q rally in rates and spreads. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.8% and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control, while it's higher in the US. Will 1Q sustain the 4Q gains, and will we see defaults pick up? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 1Q24 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.

They discuss our 1Q24 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.

Akin’s Abid Qureshi; BI on WeWork, Gol: State Of Distressed Debt

Mon, 12 Feb 2024 11:30:00 -0000

Sticky high rates have put an elevated floor under distressed supply. That’s the first topic Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed credit analyst, discuss in this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Then, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Phil interview Abid Qureshi, a partner in Akin Gump’s financial restructuring practice, on his insights into liability management exercises and the impacts of mediation (5:40). Finally, Negisa, Noel, and Phil discuss their outlooks for WeWork, GOL Airlines, Incora, and Diamond Sports (48:00) in light of recent developments.

Man Group’s Moniot on Rise of Credit Risk Sharing: Credit Crunch

Fri, 09 Feb 2024 11:30:00 -0000

Credit-risk sharing structures have undergone a significant evolution since the financial crisis, leading us to explore its emergence in markets and transformative impact on modern risk-management strategies. Man Group’s co-head of credit risk sharing, Matthew Moniot, joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. The conversation delves into the birth of the asset class, US vs. European markets and the structuring process.

Here We Go Again -- Dollar Bulls Back in Charge: FX Moment

Wed, 07 Feb 2024 14:30:36 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses the dollar's prospects in the wake of recent US macro news flow with Brad Bechtel, global head of FX sales and trading at Jefferies LLC. Brad and Audrey look at how the unexpectedly strong turn in US data has revived broad dollar strength, consistent with Brad's base case. Yet, given ever-changing G10-FX drivers and narratives, both favor taking a quarter-by-quarter approach.

Audrey and her guest agree the cost-of-carry conundrum won't be solved by the Bank of Japan ending YCC, or even modest rate rises. In the near term, they think yen bulls may look for Swiss-yen downside and forget about a sustainable decline in dollar-yen for now -- the latter pair may reach 152 before it reaches 140.

Unpacking January’s FOMC Meeting With BE’s Wong: Macro Matters

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 20:51:01 -0000

The risk of inflation re-accelerating is really in the last three months of 2024, says Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Wong joins host and Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss details of the January FOMC meeting, including implications for the path of monetary policy and any potential easing this year. The pair also address some of the risks to the economy, both to the upside and downside, that may influence future Fed decisions.

Game-Planning 2024 Election Impacts: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 19:31:44 -0000

With the election year well on its way, peak partisanship and geopolitical volatility may mean increased risk for municipal bond markets. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macro issues will continue to be a hurdle. To discuss these possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, we have Bloomberg Intelligence’s tax policy expert, Andrew Silverman, joining co-hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano of BI.

Blue Owl’s Packer on Direct Lending’s Long Runway: Credit Crunch

Fri, 26 Jan 2024 11:30:00 -0000

Blue Owl has grown from a few ideas to an alternatives manager with over $150 billion in assets under management, including almost $80 billion in credit. Craig Packer, co-president and head of credit for Blue Owl, joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the evolution of the company, the direct lending market, why the asset class can continue to grow, and where Blue Owl sees opportunity. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

State of Fixed Income, With UBS’ Bobby Martin: Macro Matters

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 13:54:28 -0000

“In the 12 months following a rate hiking cycle, typically, going out duration has a really strong potential return,” says Bobby Martin, Co-Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists at UBS Asset Management. Martin joins Macro Matters host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jerseyto review the state of domestic and global fixed-income markets. The pair discuss the stronger-than-expected macroeconomic backdrop and what it means for markets, as well as the risks facing the US economy in the medium term.

Easing Cycle and Cross-Asset Volatility: All Options Considered

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 13:25:55 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the key themes in the options market amid the focus on the easing cycle this year.

G3+ Deep Dive Summary — Asynchronous Rate Cycle: Macro Matters

Wed, 17 Jan 2024 15:50:09 -0000

Global rate cuts seem certain, but the timing is less so. In this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist is joined by colleague Huw Worthington, chief European rate strategist, to preview the themes and research found within their recently published deep dive on the G3+ rates markets. The report features a comprehensive review of the global sovereign debt markets that underpin the world’s financial markets. It includes proprietary models and centralized analysis of influential trends and catalysts from the BI global interest-rate strategy team across the medium to long term, along with forecasts from Bloomberg Economics. Read the report here on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Keep Calm, Carry On with Leveraged Loans and CLOs: Credit Crunch

Tue, 16 Jan 2024 14:55:49 -0000

CLOs are driving loan supply and in this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Credit Strategist and Paul Mehta, Head of Leveraged Loans at Aberdeen, reflect on how the leveraged loan market fared last year and the outlook for loans in 2024.

Canyon’s Sheffield; Latest on Rite Aid, Audacy & More: State of Distressed Debt

Sat, 13 Jan 2024 11:00:00 -0000

Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US credit strategiest and Philip Brendel, BI distressed credit analyst, talk about the seasonal credit trends that helped push the US distressed ratio to 19-month lows, and how the supply of distressed debt isn’t likely to see much of a rise until at least the beginning of March. Chaney Sheffield, a partner at Canyon Partners, joins them to discuss his outlook for distressed opportunities in the new year, and talks about his firm’s investment platform and process (5:50). Finally, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku offeres an update on developments in Rite Aid, Yellow Corp, Diamond Sports, Audacy bankruptcies and FTX’s litigation against Grayscale (1:00:00).

Looking at G-10 FX Prospects in a Weak-Dollar World: FX Moment

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 11:14:00 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses 2024's currency prospects with Mark Andersen, global head of asset allocation at UBS Wealth Management. In particular, Mark and Audrey look at how the 4Q 5% US dollar BBDXY selloff affects their 2024 outlook. The broadly weaker US dollar narrative remains in place, and Mark highlights a particularly strong case for the Aussie and the yen this year, while sterling's improved virtues are highlighted by Audrey.

Identifying Alpha Opportunities in EM Rates, Credit and Foreign Exchange: EM Lens

Wed, 10 Jan 2024 11:30:00 -0000

Emerging markets enter the new year on a high note as fixed-income investors continue to embrace the soft landing narrative. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through Podcast, Emso Asset Management Co-CIO Jens Nystedt and Global Head of Research Patrick Esteruelas, join Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM credit strategist, to deliver their year-ahead outlook on EM rates, credit and foreign exchange. From US exceptionalism and extreme China pessimism to central bank policy easing and election-related risk, the trio identify challenges and opportunities facing EM investors in 2024.

Fed’s Lips Are Getting Looser, Says Mike McKee: Macro Matters

Thu, 04 Jan 2024 19:21:39 -0000

The Federal Reserve’s communications have gotten more open — perhaps too open — during the time Michael McKeehas covered the central bank for Bloomberg News. McKee, international economic and policy correspondent, joinsIra Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of theFICC Focus podcast. McKee talks about the shifts in the Fed’s communications policy, how it’s influenced his reporting and policy makers’ interactions with markets. The two discuss press conferences, the Fed’s June 2022 “leak” to the media and why the Fed tends to stay out of discussions about fiscal policy following former Chairman Alan Greenspan’s advocacy in the early 2000s.

Looking Ahead and Reflecting on Rates, Credit and Currencies: FICC Focus

Thu, 28 Dec 2023 12:00:00 -0000

What might we expect in the New Year for rates, fixed income and currency markets? The FICC Focus team looks ahead to 2024, and reviews some memorable moments from 2023 in this special year end episode of the FICC Focus podcast.

Volatility Wrapped - Key Themes of 2023: All Options Considered

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 12:00:00 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives a brief overview of the key themes from the volatility markets in 2023 and the outlook ahead.

KKR’s Pietrzak on Private Credit Filling the Void: Credit Crunch

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 10:27:12 -0000

Returns, diversification and the derisking of bank balance sheets are among contributors to the growth in private credit in recent years. KKR Partner and Global Head of Private Credit Daniel Pietrzak joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the market’s growth, asset-based vs. direct lending, the benefits of scale and more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

2023 in Rearview, How Banks See 2024: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 15 Dec 2023 15:42:00 -0000

JP Morgan’s Head of Municipal Research and Strategy Peter Degroot, Wells Fargo’s Head of Municipal Markets Strategy Vikram Rai and Barclays’ Head of Municipal Research Mikhail Foux join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano on this month’s Masters of the Muniverse podcast. The three strategists reflect on the municipal landscape for 2023 and in some cases hope that their calls for the year ahead are not dashed by unforeseen forces, once again.

Fed’s Dovish Surprise With BE’s Stuart Paul: Macro Matters

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 19:52:40 -0000

“The last mile on inflation will be difficult, but the Fed is more optimistic that they can thread the needle,” says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins FICC Focus host and Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey, and Associate US Rates Strategist Will Hoffman to review the results from the December FOMC Meeting. Paul and the US Economics team anticipated the dovish tone from Chairman Powell, yet highlight several areas of surprise, such as the Fed’s confidence in a soft landing despite a slowing macroeconomic backdrop. Jersey, Paul and Hoffman dissect the outcome of the meeting and discuss the implications for domestic rates markets and the economy across the short and long term.

Carronade Capital’s Andy Taylor; Purdue at SCOTUS Takeaways: State of Distressed Debt

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 11:30:00 -0000

Noel Hebert, head of Bloomberg Intelligence’s global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed-credit analyst, review the credit markets’ November “melt-up.” Then, they have a wide-ranging discussion with Andy Taylor, head of research at Carronade Capital, on the opportunistic investing process, the power industry’s AI tailwind and financial technologies to “kick the can” (3:45). Finally, Negisa Balluku, BI bankruptcy-litigation analyst, joins Noel and Phil to share her take on Purdue Pharma’s oral argument before the Supreme Court. They also cover the latest developments in WeWork, Yellow Corp., Audacy, Rite Aid (1:15:15).

2024 Credit Outlook and Private Credit Focus: Credit Crunch

Mon, 11 Dec 2023 15:32:13 -0000

The inflation vs. recession debate is crucial to the 2024 outlook and the path of central bank rate cuts critical for all markets, including credit. The key question is whether a huge rates rally will be boosting credit or if it needs saving from alternative sources like private credit, which has been booming. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Fabian Chrobog, Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer at North Wall Capital Ltd, discuss all aspects of 2024 Outlook including central bank actions, credit conditions, yield curves, rating moves and defaults.

There's a special focus on private credit including premiums demanded over public markets, investor and issuer incentives, securitisation and the outlook for 2024 volume.

This episode was produced and edited by Victoria Garcia Loustau.

Navigating Dollar, Asia FX in Changing Economic World: FX Moment

Thu, 07 Dec 2023 12:04:44 -0000

The latest FX Moment podcast focuses on how evolving macroeconomic narratives could shape the US dollar outlook into 2024, with persistent uncertainties warranting pragmatism even if you still believe, as we do, in an underwhelming US economy in a disinflationary context, with associated dollar weakness. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, BI's chief Asia FX and rate strategist, also discuss China's macroeconomic predicament, acknowledging the not-so-bearish effect on currencies amid pessimism in China expectations in 2024 vs. 2023.

Stephen and Audrey also reflect on the key investment themes and drivers for Asia currencies in 2024 and identify the best-poised and most-exposed Asia currencies as we contemplate 2024.

This episode was produced and edited by Victoria Garcia Loustau.

Don’t Be Naive After a November to Remember in EM Debt: EM Lens

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 13:00:11 -0000

Emerging-market creditors are riding high after another strong November, with returns ranging from 5-6%. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Cathy Hepworth, managing director and head of EM debt at PGIM Fixed Income, joins host Damian Sassower, BI’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to deliver her year-ahead outlook on EM interest rates, credit and currencies. With policy-easing under way across a growing number of developing economies, she discusses the opportunities and challenges facing EM central banks as they attempt to navigate the expected slowdown in global growth.

Arcmont’s Cavalier, Brooks on All-Weather Credit: Credit Crunch

Thu, 30 Nov 2023 17:29:11 -0000

Rising volatility, maturity walls and the withdrawal of traditional lenders are driving issuers and investors to capital solutions experts in the private credit world. Alice Cavalier and David Brooks, co-heads of the Capital Solutions Strategy group at Arcmont Capital Management, join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast. A deep dive into refinancing solutions, private lending and secondary debt, all part of Arcmont’s three-pronged investment approach, as well as regional complexities and the competitive landscape within private-credit are discussed.

Tax-Loss Harvesting Comes to Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 21:12:21 -0000

There’s been heightened volatility in rates and tax-loss harvesting may or may not be the best course of action. On this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, part of the FICC Focus podcast series, Andy Kalotay, a leading authority on quantitative analysis of municipal bonds, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an in-depth discussion about the muni market this year, tax-loss harvesting and what’s on the horizon for 2024.

Rate Markets Mispricing Early Interest Rate Cuts: Macro Matters

Thu, 23 Nov 2023 16:59:07 -0000

Rate markets are mispricing early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Huw Worthington and Ira Jersey say on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. They discuss their general views for government debt issuance, which part of the investor base may buy the new debt and central bank policy outlooks. Worthington also goes into detail about recent plans for fiscal stimulus going into the UK elections, which need to occur sometime in 2024.

Brandywine Global's McClain on Risk, Value in High Yield: Credit Crunch

Tue, 21 Nov 2023 13:35:00 -0000

Economic and monetary policy uncertainty have been among the few constants confronting credit markets throughout 2023, generating divergent views around return prospects even as high yield markets look set to exit the year largely unscathed. “I haven’t seen more dislocations than I see today,” John McClain, Portfolio Manager High Yield & Corp Credit Strategies at Brandywine Global talks about the array of options in today’s credit market. McClain joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about what’s ahead for high yield, targeting esoteric risk and some of the structural changes impacting the asset class.

Fed More Macro-Relevant Than China, Russia & Israel: EM Lens

Thu, 16 Nov 2023 11:28:00 -0000

Emerging market investors have found the Fed more macro-relevant than China, Russia or Israel in recent weeks, as equities are up, oil is down, spreads have tightened and the US dollar has declined since the war erupted in Gaza. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Win Thin, senior vice president and global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his outlook on EM interest rates and foreign exchange. From the rise in US Treasury volatility to China’s sluggish economic recovery, the opportunities and challenges facing emerging-market economies are also reviewed.

Rout and Rally: Investing In a 5% World: Credit Crunch

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 16:20:31 -0000

The inflation vs. recession debate and how that will drive a Fed pause vs. pivot dynamics is casting a shadow over all markets, including credit. The key question for us is whether the tightening of financial conditions will affect credit. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, chief European credit strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies at Mizuho international, discuss the macro headwinds due to central bank tightening, especially the Fed, and the impact on risk-free and risk assets, including credit.

They address yield-curve inversion and its correction, and the impact on credit conditions. The episode also highlights credit fundamentals and flows.

Revisiting Dollar Price Action as Bears Look to 2024: FX Moment

Fri, 10 Nov 2023 17:22:46 -0000

Our latest FX Moment podcast focuses on changes in US dollar price action and what can be learned when it comes to finalizing 2024 US dollar prospects. Host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX strategist, and Jeremy Stretch, Chief International Strategist at CIBC World Markets discuss the dollar-negative narrative that could unfold in 2024, and conclude it won't be an easy ride for dollar bears as long as the Fed holds onto a high-for-long rate language, with Jeremy suggesting that euro-dollar could see a pullback toward $1.02-$1.03 before contemplating a brighter outlook.

Audrey and Jeremy also look at the outlook for the Canadian dollar, with the prospect for 2024 Bank of Canada dovishness likely to leave the currency exposed to not only the US dollar, but also vs. the euro and the Aussie dollar.

Electric Capital's Meyers on Crypto; Hertz Post-Petition Interest Row: State of Distressed Debt

Tue, 07 Nov 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Distressed debt has risen sharply in the past two weeks, with the outlook increasingly uncertain heading into year-end. Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss this and other topics in this edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. In other topics, Balluku interviews Electric Capital General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer Emily Meyers on the impact of bankruptcies on crypto's regulatory landscape here and abroad, the SEC's recent losing streak in court and Meyers' outlook for legislative progress (7:40). Also, Balluku, Hebert and Brendel discuss Rite Aid, Akumin, WeWork, Incora, Hertz's post-petition interest fight and Diamond Sports (50:10).

UK Focus Shifts to 2024 Cut Pricing: All Options Considered

Fri, 03 Nov 2023 16:41:04 -0000

The bar has increasingly moved higher for the Bank of England to hike again in this cycle after leaving rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. The market is focused on the timing and extent of 2024 rate cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.

BI Rates’ November FOMC and Refunding Recap: Macro Matters

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 19:59:06 -0000

“Our view is that the Fed is done hiking. But the question now turns to how long the Fed maintains rates at this level,” Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist says. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey reviews recent developments following the November FOMC meeting and the Treasury department’s quarterly refunding announcement. He says Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than he had at previous meetings, but still anticipates the Fed holding rates at current levels through 2024. Jersey also highlights a framework for how the quantum of Treasury debt may affect yields at differing levels of economic growth.

Oaktree's Panossian on Compelling Credit Options: Credit Crunch

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 11:00:00 -0000

“There's not enough private credit capital relative to private equity demand,” Armen Panossian, managing director, head of performing credit and incoming co-CEO for Oaktree Capital Management says. Panossian joins Bloomberg Intelligence's Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this Credit Crunch episode of the podcast FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion about private-credit growth, the high-yield opportunity, expected impacts from a prospective economic slowdown and more.

TCW’s Whalen on Strategy for a ‘Not Soft Landing’: Credit Crunch

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 11:00:00 -0000

“There’s always an opportunity at the issuer level in leveraged finance,” Bryan Whalen, co-chief investment officer and a generalist portfolio manager for TCW’s fixed income group says. Whalen joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss positioning for economic turbulence across core-plus and high yield, the value proposition in mortgage-backed securities and why corporate credit spreads look tight.

Taper With No Tantrum as Tighter Conditions Take Hold: EM Lens

Wed, 25 Oct 2023 10:27:00 -0000

Emerging market risk premia is on the rise, as higher geopolitical risk amplifies the impact from tighter financial conditions. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, JPMorgan Managing Director of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on emerging market interest rates and foreign exchange. From the selloff in US Treasuries to rising oil prices and China's struggling economic recovery, we discuss the opportunities and risks facing EM investors.

Growing a Fledgling Fund Amid Muni Chaos: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 19 Oct 2023 18:15:37 -0000

Rates are higher (for longer, if we’re being honest), the curve is pancaking and, once again, fixed-income losses will be headline fodder. However, with every tick higher in benchmark yields, municipals get an opportunity that many in the asset class won’t see in a career. For those investors focused on building an income stream and less on immediate statement marks, munis are becoming the must-have accessory for this fall season.

James Pruskowski, chief investment officer and head of the Global Client Business at 16Rock asset management, joins Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano this month to discuss the latest run-up in rates, the macro headwinds buffeting the market and what technological change in munis may look like.

Rise of Zero-Day Options With CBOE: All Options Considered

Mon, 16 Oct 2023 10:57:19 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at CBOE. They address concerns over zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), the typical users and common strategies traded. Other topics include the lack of reactivity of the VIX to market declines and dispersion trading.

PGIM’s Robert Tipp on Global Bond Markets: Macro Matters

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 18:06:54 -0000

“There’s no hope on the [US federal] deficit front,” says Robert Tipp, PGIM’s Chief Investment Strategist and head of global bonds on this 200th edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Tipp joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on this Macro Matters episode to discuss the state of the global rates markets, including Tipp’s view on the near term and more secular drivers of Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s policy. Tipp sees the longer-term bull market in rates coming to an end, and looks for the Fed’s policy-rate terminal floor to be at or above 3%. Importantly, he also views deficits as being detrimental to the Treasury market, but sees opportunity for investors to benefit from being in corporate credit as the Fed’s hiking cycle ends.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment of the podcast, US interest rate strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about financial conditions and how tightening feeds into the Fed’s near-term interest rate action.

High Yield 4Q23 Investor Survey and Outlook: Credit Crunch

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 14:36:47 -0000

High yield had a great year in terms of returns in both US and Europe. In Europe, we saw just two index defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control while its surged in the US. Will 4Q sustain this year's gains, and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.

They discuss our 4Q23 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.

Damodaran on Valuation; Latest on Hawaiian Electric, Diamond Sports, and More: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 10:00:00 -0000

“Disruptors can ruin the status quo, but they can replace the status quo with something that is not sustainable because it doesn’t have a core business model. Streaming right now is in that space,” Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus podcast.

In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss corporate credit’s resiliency amid negative seasonals and high rates. Then, Hebert and Brendel have an in-depth feature interview with Damodaran on a wide variety of valuation challenges, including inflation, distressed companies, disrupted media, dysfunctional governments and foreign conflict (7:50). Balluku rejoins in the last segment to review the latest developments for Hawaiian Electric, Alameda, Grayscale, Audacy and Diamond Sports (1:11:42).

Can't Underestimate US Recession Risks, Dollar Effect: FX Moment

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 09:14:09 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics' US economist, discuss possible US recession risks, the US economic outlook into 4Q and 2024 and associated downside risks for the dollar. Audrey and her colleague talk about how the US economy already may have started to turn, and how -- combined with a mid-term disinflation outlook -- 2024 Fed rate cuts may be contemplated after all, which could trigger yet another change in the FX narrative and give dollar downside a chance again.

Audrey and Stuart also touch on US politics and how government shutdown risks could soon return as a market consideration and potentially become more of a dollar driver than in the past, with more of a negative effect.

Man Numeric's Kamenski, Lam on Systematic Credit Evolution: Credit Crunch

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 10:40:39 -0000

“Your optimized portfolio isn't optimal if you can't trade it.” Paul Kamenski and Robert Lam, co-heads of credit for Man Numeric, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the evolution and outlook for systematic credit. Trade automation, training models and why systemic credit is still in it's early stages of growth. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

Discussion on Call Overwriting, Rates, 0DTE: All Options Considered

Tue, 26 Sep 2023 11:05:00 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Pierre de Saab, Partner at Dominice to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape. Topics discussed includes interest-rate volatility, VIX risk premium, call overwriting strategies and zero-days-to-expiry options (ODTEs), which now make up more than 50% of the overall volume of SPX options traded.

BOE Hits Pause, But For How Long?: All Options Considered

Mon, 25 Sep 2023 07:32:12 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the Bank of England, economic outlook and market volatility.

Infrastructure Becomes Locked Market in Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 13:23:51 -0000

Despite trillions being passed through recent bills to reduce inflation and spur infrastructure spending, neither goal has really been met. At first blush, the prospects of all that federal money being directed at much needed infrastructure improvements and repairs was music to the muni markets ears. However, that dream of being part of the funding solution has never really materialized and only added to the myriad of issues facing the tax-exempt market.

Joining myself and Karen this month to discuss the many challenges the municipal market is facing is Hector Negroni, Founder and CEO of Foundation Credit. For those unfamiliar, Foundation is a leading alternative asset manager dedicated to municipal credit and infrastructure debt markets in the United States. Hector is no stranger to our markets, with a career spanning over 3 decades in investing proprietary trading, public/private financing, derivatives, and structured products.

Post-FOMC Rate Review With BNP Paribas’ Marshall: Macro Matters

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 16:44:30 -0000

“The 10-year Treasury ending the year around 4.2-4.3% seems fair, but the recent selloff has been overdone,” William Marshall, head of US rates strategy at BNP Paribas says. Marshall joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast to discuss his market views in the wake of the September FOMC meeting. The pair dissect recent yield moves across the curve, as well as underlying catalysts and narratives. These include a persistently high federal deficit, elevated Treasury issuance and potential sources of demand for securities amid a deluge of T-bill and coupon issuance. Marshall sees no broad liquidity pressures on funding markets via the impact of the Fed’s asset runoff, which could continue past his expectations for interest rate cuts beginning in June.

Paul Hastings' Hansen on Crypto, Mass Tort, & 'Creditor-on-Creditor Violence'; Latest on Yellow, 3M, and Diamond Sports: State of Distressed

Tue, 19 Sep 2023 09:40:00 -0000

In this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss high yield’s and distressed’s uncanny strength through the summer amid higher rates. Then, bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Brendel have an in-depth interview with Kris Hansen, co-chair of the financial restructuring group at Paul Hastings, on how “creditor-on-creditor violence” is a misnomer, the intersection of crypto and bankruptcy, Chapter 11 as a forum for resolving mass tort and his outlook for restructurings (6:10). Balluku, Brendel and Hebert wrap up with the latest developments for Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Alameda, Grayscale, Yellow Corp., Diamond Sports and National Cinemedia (1:22:09).

Questions From West Coast Investor Trip: Macro Matters

Sun, 17 Sep 2023 12:44:23 -0000

Should the US economy avoid a recession over the coming months as anticipated by the Bloomberg Economics team, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for all of 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on the latest episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The Fed may be forced to end asset runoff in 1H24, he says, as reserves become scarce. In addition, Jersey answers other common questions from buy-side investors during his recent California roadshow, including about the potential near-term impact of federal deficits on domestic rate markets. US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman views nuances to August’s monthly Treasury statement and the implications for issuance.

Isolating Idiosyncratic Risk Factors in EM Dollar-Pay Debt: EM Lens

Fri, 15 Sep 2023 10:17:00 -0000

Emerging market currency volatility is on the rise, as the dovish tilt in monetary policy causes real yield differentials to converge with the US and Europe. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through episode, Shamaila Khan, Head of Emerging Markets & Asia-Pacific at UBS Asset Management Americas, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her outlook on emerging market debt. From idiosyncratic risk in EM distressed debt to China’s struggling property sector, we discuss the opportunities and risks facing EM creditors.

Sustainability and ESG In Credit: Why Bother?: Credit Crunch

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 14:07:18 -0000

Credit markets saw stupendous growth in socially responsible and green bonds from a variety of credits and many sustainability and ESG specialized funds and investment vehicles have taken off in the past four years.

In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Mitch Reznick, Head of Sustainable Fixed Income at Federated Hermes Limited, discuss the shades of sustainable bond and fund types: Sustainability, ESG, SRI, Green, GSS among others and differentiate them and address their performance and alpha vs. mainstream credit. They also discuss flows into such funds and supply of these securities in comparison to mainstream. Lastly, they discuss the various relevant global regulations, including stewardship.

Bigger BRICS Renews Dollar Demise Talk, But In Vain: FX Moment

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 15:47:04 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, BI chief Asia FX and rates strategist, look into how the recently announced plan for a larger BRICS has rekindled the de-dollarisation theme. Audrey and her colleague address the highly relevant economics and politics behind the BRICS extension and look into how this may impact de-dollarisation.

In practice, expect limited impact for decades to come, with the dollar unchallenged on the International Monetary System (for now), and the euro arguably more of a challenger than the yuan in the near term.

Active Management, Fixed Income Chaos: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 30 Aug 2023 15:58:59 -0000

Money has been leaking out of municipal mutual funds this year, but the same can’t be said for alternative products, such as exchange traded funds, though there’s been some recent cooling, especially in separately managed account platforms, an area we’ve spent much time exploring this year on Masters of the Muniverse. In this episode of the podcast, Andrew Clinton, CEO and founder of Clinton Investment Management, sits down with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano for an in-depth discussion about the muni market, recession expectations, his feelings post-Jackson Hole and the outlook for 4Q.

Hildene's Jefferson, Mehra on Structured Strength: Credit Crunch

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 10:00:00 -0000

The keys to evaluating structured credit are “the value of the assets, the value of the structure and the value of the option,” according to Brett Jefferson, founder, president and co-CIO of Hildene Capital, with $14 billion in assets under management. Jefferson and co-CIO Dushyant Mehra join Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch episode, part of the FICC Focus podcast series for an in-depth discussion on the value in TruPs, identifying the fulcrum in CLOs, mortgage-backed products and the benefits of diversification.

US Rate-Market Review With TD’s Gennadiy Goldberg: Macro Matters

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 18:50:10 -0000

The Treasury market selloff throughout August was in part due to increased issuance, but largely driven by the market repricing the future path of monetary policy, TD Securities USA’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Gennadiy Goldberg says on this Macro Matters podcast episode hosted by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey. Goldberg discusses his views on the Treasury market, the future of global monetary-policy actions and investor expectations for the economy.

In this week’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Rate Strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the BI Rates team’s recent research note, which highlighted what may come next for technical yield levels.

Credit Correction: Is That Enough? - Credit Crunch

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 13:58:50 -0000

Credit markets have had a correction in the past month, across the board. It takes us to an interesting juncture where we ask if the correction has longer to go or is largely done, and which asset classes stand to benefit most in its aftermath.

In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Boris Okuliar, Co-Head of Global Liquid Credit at Ares Management, discuss the situation in global credit and the challenges of directional view after this correction. They discuss rates, yields, credit spreads and supply in detail. There's a particular focus on leveraged loans, high yield bonds, the impact of the CLO market and private lending.

Euro Bullish Cyclical Narrative Holds But Only Just: FX Moment

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 14:43:38 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G10 FX Strategist and Maeva Cousin, senior euro area economist at Bloomberg Economics, look into the euro and US near-term growth dynamics and how these may shape BI's euro-dollar outlook into year-end. We also touch on the euro-inflation outlook and European Central Bank's rate prospects for 2023 and 2024.

For now, our positive euro-dollar relative growth differential outlook holds, but recent euro data have underwhelmed while US data have tended to overwhelm. The euro price action has been resilient thus far, though our strategists conclude this is no time for complacency.

Losada on Extracting Excess Returns in Latin America: EM Lens

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 10:15:00 -0000

Latin America central banks continue to focus on inflation, yet fiscal deficits remain elevated and growth is in decline. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast episode, Fernando Losada, Managing Director and Head of Latin America Sovereign Research at Oppenheimer, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on Latin American debt markets, with a focus on Central America and the Caribbean. From tourist inflows and remittances to oil imports and climate change, we discuss the economic and fundamental risks that have the potential to affect fixed-income valuations.

BI’s Adelberg on Mortgage-Backed Securities: Macro Matters

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 11:45:00 -0000

Spreads of mortgage-backed securities may remain wide, though net and gross supply could remain depressed given interest rate and housing market dynamics, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief MBS Strategist Erica Adelberg says. Adelberg joins Macro Matters podcast host and BI’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to share her view on relative value within the mortgage markets, compare MBS to corporate bonds and discuss how recent bank regulations may affect mortgage demand. You can access more of Adelberg’s research on the BI Mortgages Dashboard by typing {BI MORTN }.

Brubaker on ‘Non-distressed’ Debtors; Latest on J&J, Crypto, Cineworld: State of Distressed

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 10:35:00 -0000

The red-hot credit rally leaves debt markets vulnerable ahead of historically-worst months, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku say on this month’s edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. Guest Ralph Brubaker, the James H.M. Sprayregen Professor of Law at the University of Illinois College of Law, joins Balluku for an in-depth feature interview on corporate tortfeasors’ persistent efforts to exploit Chapter 11 protections (6:50). Hebert, Balluku and Brendel wrap up the episode with the latest developments for Johnson & Johnson, Cineworld, Crypto and Diamond Sports (50:20).

Related research:

Ralph Brubaker, The Texas Two-Step and Mandatory Non-Opt-Out Settlement Powers (July 2022)

Amici Curiae Brief of Bankruptcy Law Professors Ralph Brubaker, George W. Kuney, and Bruce A. Markell, In re Purdue Pharma (Mar. 2022)

BOE Steps Down Pace on Lack of Upside Surprises: All Options Considered

Fri, 04 Aug 2023 12:06:34 -0000

The Bank of England stepped down the pace of tightening as it closes in on the peak but isn't quite yet done and remains highly data dependent. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Bloomberg Senior UK Economist.

Riding Volatility as Turmoil Recedes: All Options Considered

Mon, 31 Jul 2023 13:12:32 -0000

The re-risking with the market being chased higher has crushed equity volatility while the skew in rates at the back of the curve is toward higher yields. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, Founder of Quadratic Capital Management. Discussion points include key themes from the rates and equity volatility markets.

Find out more about Quadratic Capital Management here: http://www.ivoletf.com

Post-Federal Reserve Meeting Thoughts: Macro Matters

Thu, 27 Jul 2023 17:07:37 -0000

The Federal Reserve may remain on hold for the rest of the year as inflation should moderate, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics Anna Wong says on this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. Wong joins host Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss her view on the economy and future Fed policy. Jersey mentions some investors are concerned about a reacceleration of inflation, to which Wong handicaps the possibility, but notes even if inflation does climb a bit again, the Fed might not have to hike rates further.

In this week’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Strategy Associate William Hoffman asks Jersey about his deficit and Treasury issuance forecast. Jersey notes additional Treasury coupon issuance may be announced at next week’s Treasury Refunding announcement.

Castlelake Co-CEO on Asset-Based Private Lending: Credit Crunch

Tue, 25 Jul 2023 10:00:00 -0000

Asset-based finance has moved nearer center stage in the fast growing private credit market, competing with corporate direct lending for attention. Castlelake’s Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer Evan Carruthers joins hosts Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s director of FICC research, and Sam Geier, senior credit strategy associate, on this Credit Crunch podcast episode to talk about the current landscape and opportunity amid uncertainty. Turbulence in aviation finance and innovation in consumer, as well as the small and medium enterprise space are among topics discussed.

Green Shoots Are Sprouting in Emerging Market Debt: EM Lens

Fri, 21 Jul 2023 14:00:23 -0000

Green shoots are forming in emerging market debt as growth slows, inflation eases and the geopolitical climate turns more market friendly. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Ilke Pienaar, Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income Sovereign Research at PineBridge Investments, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her mid-year outlook on EM credit. She discusses the firm's key convictions across EM, with Asia high yield exhibiting improved fundamentals and attractive valuations.

Carlyle's Pavelski on Private Credit; Latest on Crypto, Audacy

Wed, 19 Jul 2023 10:03:32 -0000

BI global credit strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss how credit markets are "melting up" with equities, but that it may be fleeting. Noel and Phil also have an in-depth feature interview with John Pavelski, co-head of North America for the Carlyle Credit Opportunities Fund, on the possibilities created as the private credit market weathers a distressed cycle (10:30). Finally, Negisa, Noel and Phil discuss the latest developments in crypto bankruptcies, Audacy, Diamond Sports and J&J (1:04:30).

Building a Better Muni-Management Trap: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 18 Jul 2023 15:10:05 -0000

The landscape for municipal asset management has been changing over the past year, and there’s been lower beta options such as exchange traded funds and separately managed accounts. For those looking to expand or break into this space, scaling the business is the single largest pain point. Investortools’ Senior Vice President James Morris joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast to discuss this challenge and highlight an off-the-shelf solution.

Time Has Come for a Revival of Dollar Bear Views: FX Moment

Thu, 13 Jul 2023 15:02:47 -0000

The Fed's nearing rate peak and evidence of a turning US economy should revive the bearish view of the US dollar in 2H. In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, examines the outlook for the US and global economies and the implications for currencies with Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas, UBS Global Wealth Management.

In particular, Solita and Audrey acknowledge that beyond a structurally dollar-negative case that's not going away, a shifting US cyclical and inflation narrative and near Fed rate peak are giving dollar bears another chance in 2H, with $1.15 euro-dollar and 0.85 dollar-Swiss feasible into 2H and beyond.

High Yield 3Q23 Survey and Outlook: Credit Crunch

Tue, 11 Jul 2023 15:05:21 -0000

European high yield has had just two defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control after a positive 1H for returns. Will 3Q sustain the 1H gains and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to hear Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence discuss the results of the 3Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.

They discuss our 3Q23 survey publication, in detail, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sectors in detail.

Post-Payrolls Rate View, RRP During TGA Rebuild: Macro Matters

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 17:31:36 -0000

The Treasury yield curve may remain inverted for quite a while, but bull steepening could begin as the Federal Reserve finished its interest rate hikes, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist says in this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast.

Jersey provides his short- and longer-term view of the rate markets, mentioning how the real federal funds rate may peak at about 2.5% if consensus inflation estimates and market pricing are realized. Jersey is also joined by US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman to discuss the rebuild of the Treasury General Account (the government’s checking account held at the Fed), and how T-bill issuance has thus far been primarily funded by lower use of the Fed’s reverse repurchase agreement facility. They also talk about how Fed liabilities move around during the TGA rebuild, and Jersey gives his expectation of when the Fed runoff might end due to bank reserves reaching their “tipping point.”

A Review of Global Central Bank Policy Actions: Macro Matters

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 17:08:33 -0000

After central banks gathered in Portugal at the ECB Forum earlier this week, a turn in European inflation and a strong 1Q GDP revision in the US caused a sell off in developed market sovereign debt. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by his European counterpart Huw Worthington on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Huw gives his outlook for inflation and central bank policy actions in Europe and the UK, while Jersey highlights his shift in view that the Federal Reserve may hike further.

In this episode’s Interest Rate Intro segment, US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the Fed’s bank stress tests and how they may be affecting markets. Jersey gives a summary of the tests and his view that bank compliance has depressed risk taking and therefore liquidity.

Waterfall’s Jack Ross Talks Structured Markets: Credit Crunch

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 13:25:00 -0000

Structured credit markets have evolved into a multi-trillion dollar asset class, one that we dive into in the latest episode of Credit Crunch, part of the FICC Focus podcast series. Waterfall Asset Management’s Managing Partner and Cofounder Jack Ross, one of the pioneers in asset-based securities, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Director of FICC Research Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Strategy Associate Sam Geier for an in-depth discussion about the transformation of the asset class over Ross’ storied career, areas of concern in commercial real estate and consumer spending, as well as how the burgeoning private credit space is influencing the investment landscape.

This recorded discussion is not intended to be and does not constitute an offer of Waterfall Asset Management, LLC’s (“Waterfall”) investment advisory services. The information, statements, commentary, views, and opinions (collectively, the “Commentary”) provided in this discussion are general in nature, may reflect the perspective of the individual rather than Waterfall and the Commentary is not intended to be and should not be construed as the provision of investment advice by Waterfall, to that listener or generally, and do not result in any listener being considered a client or customer of Waterfall. Any discussion of the past performance of any investment, sector, or market is not indicative of any future results. Further, the Commentary is as of the date of recording and may not be current at the time that listener hears the discussion. Waterfall does not undertake any obligation whatsoever to provide any form of update, amendment, change or correction to the Commentary.

BOE Goes Faster Increasing Stagflation Risk: All Options Considered

Fri, 23 Jun 2023 14:43:10 -0000

The Bank of England remains highly data-dependent, re-accelerating to a 50-bp hike "at this particular meeting" given the upside inflation surprises. The wide difference between actual inflation data releases vs. consensus keeps volatility elevated at the front end of the yield curve. The flattening of the curve reflects the risk to growth and increased pricing of cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist.

Building A Bullish Narrative in EM Local Debt: EM Lens

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 10:27:00 -0000

An improving inflation outlook alongside weaker cross-asset volatility and more moderate global growth is contributing to the bullish narrative in EM local government debt. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of Emerging Market Research at Societe Generale, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her mid-year outlook on EM local currencies and debt. She discusses the firm's key EM trading themes, and highlights various structural, idiosyncratic and tactical opportunities.

Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong on Fed Jawboning: Macro Matters

Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:06:46 -0000

The Federal Reserve may not hike the additional 50 bps shown in the infamous “Dot Plot” at the June monetary policy meeting, Bloomberg Economics’ Chief US Economist Anna Wong remarks. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to recap the FOMC meeting and discuss her views for the future. Wong still expects a mild recession in 2H, thinks the Fed will maintain interest rates near the peak and that balance-sheet reduction will continue into next year. She also believes Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was relatively neutral, though the dot plot was hawkish.

Muni Ladder Strategies Can Boost Returns: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 15 Jun 2023 14:11:00 -0000

The stage is set for municipals to look better vs. other fixed income in 2023-2024. Though fund flows remain a concern, the asset class’ ability to provide tax-exempt income exceeding inflation remains a key feature, especially if recessionary pressures increase. Parametric’s Nisha Patel joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse FICC Focus podcast to discuss the advantages of technology-driven systematic solutions and some of the strategies used to maximize returns. Patel also shares how not all ladder strategies need to be passive.

Pretium's Matt Cantor on Litigation Finance; Latest on Serta, Incora, FTX and Diamond: State of Distressed Debt

Mon, 12 Jun 2023 10:00:00 -0000

Credit markets have a dour seasonal outlook and piecemeal restructurings are flailing. BI Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss these issues and more on the June edition of the State of Distressed Debt Podcast. Guest Matthew Cantor, Head of Legal Strategies and Special Situations of Pretium Partners, shares his views on litigation finance, distressed banks and the distressed cycle (8:12). Also of note: the latest developments in Serta, Incora, FTX, Diamond Sports, J&J and Cineworld (46:05).

Credit Troubles in Size, ESG and CDS: Credit Crunch

Fri, 09 Jun 2023 05:07:45 -0000

European credit markets have shifted since the banking crisis and the rally that followed, especially the shrinkage in junk. It's always interesting to hear views from across regions and this time we head to sunny France for some Gallic finesse in credit portfolio management.

In the 11th episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, and Benoit Soler, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Credit at Keren Finance, discuss the situation in European credit and the specific challenges of ESG portfolio management with new regulations and the failure of CDS to "deliver" when expected.

Not Easy Being a Euro Bull, But It's No Time to Quit: FX Moment

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 16:28:48 -0000

Ever-changing drivers and low FX conviction views have been consistent with a $1.06-$1.10 euro-dollar in recent months, but a break of $1.10 toward $1.15 and higher remains feasible later this year. In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, reflects on the euro-dollar's outlook as we contemplate 2H and after a very challenging 1H for bullish views.

Childe-Freeman believes the positive narrative holds into 2H, with the European Central Bank's and Fed's monetary-cycle lags, a possible adjustment to more-supportive euro-US economic surprises and the US debt-ceiling deal are likely to help the view. Cyclical uncertainty in China is an unwelcome negative consideration, but it's arguably partly priced in. Click the exhibit to hear the podcast.

Abrdn’s Mondillo on Private, Public Corporates: Macro Matters

Thu, 01 Jun 2023 16:26:17 -0000

Corporate fixed income looks attractive compared with equities, Abrdn’s Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income says. Mondillo joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how private debt markets can offer opportunities and less volatility than some public credit areas. He also reviews Abrdn’s preferred sectors given its outlook for a recession beginning in early 2024, and the effects political policy and the Federal Reserve may have on fixed-income investing.

Credit After Crisis - US vs. Europe: Credit Crunch

Thu, 25 May 2023 13:52:09 -0000

The banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic led to significant repricing and revaluation in credit markets globally. But the rally following government and regulatory actions has recovered much of the lost ground.

In the 10th episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, and Noel Hebert, Chief US Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the aftermath of banking crisis and the rally, performance of banking bonds including AT1s and CDS indexes and the outlook for credit markets on both sides of the Atlantic including fundamentals, defaults, central bank actions, yield-curve impacts and return forecasts.

Time to Talk About China's Recovery Again: FX Moment

Wed, 24 May 2023 14:35:31 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, Chief Asia FX and rates strategist, reflect on China's recovery story and on how some recent underwhelming monthly indicators reports may affect prospects into 2H as well as the currency market.

Our analysts see the recent China economic news flow as a readjustment to more realistic growth expectations as opposed to evidence of a bleak outlook, with the recovery story intact for now. This implies that while the yuan is exposed near-term -- and that's not ideal for euro bulls either -- a more supportive narrative should return in 2H.

Inside Zero-Day Options With CBOE: All Options Considered

Tue, 23 May 2023 10:34:36 -0000

Questions have arisen around the growth of zero-days to expiry options, which now make up more than 40% of the overall volume of SPX options traded, and how this boom may be impacting the stock market. This edition of the All Options Considered podcast focuses on zero days to expiry options, or 0DTEs, and addresses the diversity of the investor base and what type of strategies are being traded. BI’s Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Arianne Adams, Senior Vice President, Head of Derivatives and Global Client Services at Cboe Global Markets.

Assessing Opportunities and Risks Across EMEA Region: EM Lens

Mon, 22 May 2023 13:09:03 -0000

Geopolitical risk is accelerating across Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, yet the region continues to outperform as end-of-cycle dynamics take hold. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s EMEA FX & Interest Rate Strategist Sergei Voloboev joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his outlook on local currency and debt markets in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Voloboev also shares his views on Turkey’s general elections, Israel’s proposed judicial overhaul and South Africa’s energy crisis.

Schroder's Lisa Hornby on Mortgages, Corporates: Macro Matters

Thu, 18 May 2023 17:24:25 -0000

Lisa Hornby, Schroder Investment Management’s Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income, says mortgages and shorter-term Treasury securities are more attractive than corporates given the firm’s outlook for the economy. Hornby joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornby discusses why she thinks corporate credit may be challenged in some cases, yet says that broadly the risks are name-specific, rather than being confined to certain sectors. In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rates Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey how a debt-ceiling deal could affect the Treasury General Account, along with bank reserves and other Federal Reserve liabilities.

Fixed Income Manager Sees Opportunity: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 12 May 2023 13:17:00 -0000

Despite positive year-to-date performance, navigating the heightened volatility in the rates market and declining new issue sales have been just some of the challenges investors have had to contend with this year. Though some have chosen to hide out in high-yield cash equivalents such as money-market products, opportunities exist if cloudy valuations can be navigated. Belle Haven Investments’ CEO and CIO Matt Dalton and Director of Research Dora Lee join Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode to share their muni-market perspective.

Bank of England, ECB, Fed Policy Decisions: Macro Matters

Thu, 11 May 2023 17:49:47 -0000

The market interpreting comments following the Bank of England’s 25-bp rate increase at the May policy meeting doesn’t square with the view of Bloomberg Intelligence European Interest Rate Strategist Huw Worthington. On this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Worthington suggests that the UK’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, while the European Central Bank could raise somewhat further. He notes that quantitative tightening via asset runoff by the ECB is just beginning at full force. Recent credit-rating actions on France might have implications for reviews of Italy and could affect markets.

BI US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey also speaks with Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics Anna Wong about recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy actions last week. She discusses her view of the economy and inflation — highlighting the risk that inflation doesn’t fall aggressively — and the Fed remaining on hold for longer than the market is pricing.

Credit Index Futures: A New Frontier: Credit Crunch

Wed, 10 May 2023 14:25:59 -0000

Market downswings and rallies and concern about the next crisis have been major preoccupations over the past two years. A significant credit-market innovation helping to address this was introduced in this period and it's coming to the forefront now -- credit index futures.

In the ninth episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Davide Masi, Fixed Income ETD Product Design at Eurex, discuss the need for credit index futures, the features of the Investment Grade (LXY) and High Yield (AHW) futures contracts along with their underlying benchmarks, their merits for hedging and risk-taking and their potential in terms of trading costs and volume.

Corbin’s Bergstrom on Credit Landscape: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 05 May 2023 11:00:09 -0000

“I worry less about liquidity risk because we’re generally assuming there isn’t liquidity there. I worry more about recovery risk. If something goes wrong in a small-cap stack…a lot of the advisory, workout and bankruptcy costs are much more onerous in a smaller-cap stack,” Corbin Capital’s Chief Investment Officer Craig Bergstrom says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus Podcast.

In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how the credit markets are locked in to their seasonal trends, and if continued, may tumble this summer. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Bergstrom on the current credit opportunity set, private credit and evaluating credit funds (7:39). Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the podcast for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including Bed Bath & Beyond, National CineMedia, Johnson & Johnson’s second foray in Chapter 11 and Exela Technologies (1:06:20).

Eurozone & UK Rate Markets With ING Research: Macro Matters

Thu, 04 May 2023 20:05:03 -0000

ING’s Antoine Bouvet, head of European rates strategy and James Smith, developed market economist, join Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this episode of the Macro Matters editions of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the economy and rate markets of the Eurozone and the UK. Bouvet and Smith give their outlook for inflation, central bank policy and government bond markets.

Let's Talk Sterling Recovery, UK Economic Prospects: FX Moment

Wed, 03 May 2023 15:53:48 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses her still-positive sterling outlook and revisits the UK's near-term cyclical dynamics and longer-term structural considerations with Dan Hanson, senior UK economist at Bloomberg Economics. The pair acknowledge the better-than-expected backdrop that's helped sterling year to date and discuss the risks to the UK's economic outlook, with implications for monetary policy and the pound. Hanson also explains the main longer-term challenges facing the UK economy, in particular regarding productivity and fiscal considerations.

Beyond unexpected economic resilience thus far this year, there are other reasons supporting a more upbeat pound outlook, including improving post-Brexit UK-EU relations.

Discussion on Cross-Asset Volatility: All Options Considered

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 12:40:12 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Matthew Tym, Head of Equity Derivatives Trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. Discussion includes the volatility reset in G10 FX and equity market.

Crossover Buyer Lifts Value Lens Hood: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 27 Apr 2023 12:51:19 -0000

Municipal performance through the first four months of 2023 is a semi-welcome respite from the tough 2022 that many asset managers faced. The tax-exempt market is still contending with the same challenges that somewhat define the sector such as supply and demand imbalances and municipal valuations that seem overly rich until they unwind in the other direction. Though sole exempt investors are strapped in and along for the ride, those who live in the crossover world can maneuver more adeptly around “relative value.” Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research & Management joins Bloomberg Intelligence Strategist Eric Kazatsky on this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode to explain how a true cross-over investor is looking at munis’ potential opportunities.

High Yield 2Q23 Survey and Outlook: Credit Crunch

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 13:03:47 -0000

European high yield had its first default but the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control after a positive first quarter for returns. Will 2Q sustain the 1Q gains and when do we see a default wave, if any? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discussed the results of the 2Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.

We discussed our 2Q23 survey publication covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative value opinions by geography, rating and sectors in detail.

As Inflation and Growth Concerns Collide: EM Lens & Look-Through

Mon, 24 Apr 2023 13:12:28 -0000

Deteriorating US economic fundamentals are fueling late-cycle serendipity in emerging market currencies, yet any declarations alluding to a demise in the dollar smile will likely prove exaggerated. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Jonny Goulden, managing director and head of EM sovereign strategy at JPMorgan joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share his views on EM foreign exchange resilience, the glide path for short-term interest rates and spillover from US financial sector stress to EM credit spreads.

NewEdge Wealth’s Ben Emons on Global Fixed Income: Macro Matters

Thu, 20 Apr 2023 16:48:20 -0000

Bank debt may be an attractive asset class, NewEdge Wealth’s portfolio manager and head of fixed income Ben Emons tells Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist and host Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Emons discusses his views on future central-bank policy action in the US, Europe and emerging markets. He also reviews how the yield curve could react, highlighting that EM was early in tightening monetary policy. Jersey asks Emons about the challenges of investing in private credit and how loan markets are being altered by the transition to SOFR away from Libor.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey what could happen after the debt ceiling raised, and how the Treasury Department may refill government coffers.

Credit Crisis Over? US vs. Europe: Credit Crunch

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 15:57:43 -0000

The banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic has led to significant repricing and revaluation of certain instruments in credit markets. But the rally following government and regulatory actions has recovered some of the lost ground.

In our seventh episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Noel Hebert, Chief US Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the banking crisis aftermath, performance of banking bonds including AT1s and CDS indexes and the outlook for credit markets on both sides of the Atlantic including fundamentals, central bank actions, yield curve impacts and return forecasts.

Fidelity’s Van Duzer on Workouts; J&J Talc: State of Distressed

Thu, 06 Apr 2023 10:00:00 -0000

“There’s a growing trend to get in front of these names a little earlier...FOMO is alive and well in the creditor community...no one wants to find out a deal has been done around them. Particularly if it is an aggressive up-tier exchange,” Fidelity Investments’ Nathan Van Duzer says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus Podcast.

In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how SVB’s demise stirred up distressed supply in March. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Van Duzer on the workout playbook and how the restructuring business has changed over the past 20 years (5:20). Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg News’ Eliza Ronalds-Hannon also join the podcast for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including Johnson & Johnson’s second try at settling talc claims in Chapter 11, 3M, Voyager Digital, FTX, Bed Bath & Beyond, AMC Entertainment, Cineworld and Diamond Sports (1:15:10).

Fixed Income Outlook With Amundi US’ Duensing: Macro Matters

Wed, 05 Apr 2023 15:10:35 -0000

Adding duration to fixed income portfolios will be attractive as the economy slows later this year, Amundi US’ head of fixed income Jonathan Duensing explains to Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist and host Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast. Duensing discusses how Amundi analyzes markets prior to investment decisions, noting his team’s bottom-up approach. He says mortgage-market extension has made evaluation of the sector easier. On the recent banking turmoil, Duensing suggests risks may be quelled thanks to quick policy action. Regulators did a good job ringfencing the regional banks over the the past month to avoid contagion to the broader financial system, Duensing says.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment of the podcast, US Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the difference between Libor and secured overnight financing rate (SOFR). Jersey explains that SOFR isn’t a like-for-like replacement and suggests that the Bloomberg Short-Term Bank Yield (BSBY) might be better for assessing financial liquidity risk.

Swiss Focus With Valerie Lemaigre of BCGE: FX Moment

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 13:38:33 -0000

In our latest FX Moment Podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, talks about the Swiss economy, the SNB outlook and the Swiss franc prospects with Valerie Lemaigre, head of Investment Office and chief economist at Banque Cantonale de Geneve. In particular, Valerie and Audrey touch on how the Swiss growth and inflation outlook may impact the SNB's near-term monetary policy decisions and the consequences for the Swiss franc outlook.

In a broadly weaker-dollar environment -- and despite the recent Credit Suisse predicament -- dollar-Swiss bears are back on track, with 0.90 a feasible level after all, while the risk to the recent 0.97-1.00 euro-Swiss range may become tilted to the upside in a stronger ECB-driven euro world.

Discussion on Bond, FX Volatility: All Options Considered

Thu, 30 Mar 2023 14:33:23 -0000

As the error bands around the outlook widen and cycle turns bring lots of noise, directional views have become much more challenging. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Anna Raytcheva, CIO and Founder of Sonya Capital Management. Points covered include key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, liquidity issues and FX volatility lagging the moves in the bond market.

Are Market Pricing Cuts Off Base? : Macro Matters

Wed, 29 Mar 2023 18:11:17 -0000

The market pricing for 2023 Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is off base, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong says on this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Wong joins host and Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss her view of the economic environment, the affect the banking turmoil may have going forward, and how the job market could develop. Wong suggests there might be a risk that after a pause, the Fed could be forced to increase interest rates more as inflation may remain sticky.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the path of banks’ net interest margins. Jersey highlights how shifts in capital rules and interest being paid on reserves as reasons for higher NIMs, even as the yield curve has inverted. Yet, distributional affects could be striking and leave room for fear of more banking issues.

Interest Rate Volatility: Emerging Market Lens & Look-Through

Mon, 27 Mar 2023 13:35:46 -0000

Interest rate volatility remains a risk, but it’s still possible for the Fed to achieve a “softish” landing, with positive implications for the broader EM complex. In this episode of the Emerging Market Lens & Look-Through podcast, Kevin Daly, investment director at Abrdn Investments joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to share his views on emerging and frontier markets as the outlook for global growth deteriorates.

Banking Chaos and Central Bank Hikes: Credit Crunch

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 13:16:17 -0000

The inflation vs. recession debate and how that will drive Fed pause vs. pivot dynamics is casting a shadow over credit markets. Key questions include whether the tightening of lending standards will drive up defaults or whether resilient fundamentals will prevent this.

In our sixth episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence and Robert McAdie, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy at BNP Paribas, discuss the banking crisis, macro headwinds due to central bank tightening and its impact on risk-free and risk assets, including credit. They address yield-curve inversion and its correction, and its impact on the credit curve. The podcast also highlights quantitative tightening by the ECB and BOE and what can cause the markets to spook.

800-Pound Gorilla ETF Bullish on Munis: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 15:26:35 -0000

There’s been a sharp drop in rates across the curve, but that’s come at the expense of two bank failures and the introduction of a new depositary back-stop facility from the federal government, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode, Vanguard’s head of municipal investment Paul Malloy joins BI strategist Eric Kazatsky to discuss all things macro and micro in the world of munis.

Mortgage Market Slows Down Again: Macro Matters

Thu, 09 Mar 2023 19:50:20 -0000

The supply of mortgage-backed securities remains very tight as refinancings have dried up again, Bloomberg Intelligence Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg says on the FICC Focus Podcast.

In this Macro Matters edition, Adelberg joins Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss recent housing and mortgage data, remarking on how exceptionally low application volume shows persistent stress on the market. Slow prepayments have caused light gross issuance, even with the Federal Reserve reducing its mortgage holdings. Adelberg says she thinks the Fed won’t consider selling mortgages directly as this could disrupt market function.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment, BI Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the generally inverted yield curve. Jersey notes that the inversion is the market’s expectation of where policy rates will be in the future. He states that the market thinks the yield curve will be inverted for the next two years, but much less so than it is currently.

The First Default; How Many More?: Credit Crunch

Tue, 07 Mar 2023 14:36:42 -0000

We have potentially seen the first European high yield index default (bond rated D but not yet out of the index) in nearly two years, while the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds continues to fall given a long rally. Where is the risk in the high yield index and how big a default wave do we see this time? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discusses the default outlook and trends in a Q&A format with Zachary Swabe, Portfolio Manager for High Yield, UBS Asset Management.

We discuss the risk profile of the index by rating and sector, the proportion of CCC and CC-D credits, their evolution and relative valuations, and the impact on supply and returns in detail. We also address the macroeconomic outlook affecting high yield in the near and long term.

SVP's Khosla Sees Growing Opportunity. BI on Seasonal Market Gains: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 03 Mar 2023 13:53:35 -0000

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how March may buck 2023's credit rally. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Victor Khosla, Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Strategic Value Partners on maintaining an investment culture while experiencing significant growth and his views on the current opportunity set (6:38). Finally, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg News' Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join them for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including J&J's and 3M's forays in Chapter 11, Revlon, Bed Bath & Beyond, FTX, and Cineworld (1:11:52).

How Ever-Changing Narrative Shapes the Dollar Outlook: FX Moment

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 16:47:25 -0000

FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, reflects on how the G10 FX narrative has evolved over the past couple of months and how this has shaped dollar sentiment back to all bullish from all bearish. Identifying how the narrative evolves from here is the next key challenge when it comes to assessing the US dollar's likely near-term fortune, and data watching may become highly relevant again in the next few weeks in that respect.

Bloomberg Intelligence's FX team expects a negative dollar story to return in the course of 2023, but it can't be a linear view and the US macro and yield trajectory must adjust back to more benign levels first.

DWS' Staples on Yield Curve: Macro Matters

Tue, 28 Feb 2023 17:17:41 -0000

Interest rates could remain higher than the previous few cycles, with an upward sloping yield curve by the end of 2024, Gregory Staples, DWS Investment Management’s head of fixed income in North America, says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.

In this Macro Matters edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Staples, who talks about his role at DWS and the variety of strategies he helps to manage. Among other topics, Staples discusses the differences in managing fixed income investments for insurance companies and mutual funds, his short- and longer-term view for markets, and what sectors may be at risk given DWS’ expectation for a midyear economic slowdown.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment, BI Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the average time it took the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates historically after reaching the peak. As a second question, Hoffman inquires about what factors tend to influence TIPS real yields. Listeners can hear more about this topic, which was covered in our Oct. 27 FICC Focus Podcast.

Chinese Equities May Offer Respite During a Profit Recession: EM Lens

Tue, 28 Feb 2023 13:12:31 -0000

Fundamentally, Chinese equities stand out from global peers as the nation’s profit recession appears to be ending just as the rest of the world decelerates. In this month’s Emerging Market Lens & Look-Through edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors, who shares his views on investor positioning and market valuations in a world of slower growth and declining profitability.

Discussing 0DTE, CTAs, VIX: All Options Considered

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 12:05:17 -0000

The scenario of an extreme market impact from zero days to expiration options may be overstated and Commodity Trading Advisors' positive beta to equity may be a near-term headwind for SPX. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dean Curnutt, the CEO of Macro Risk Advisors. Points covered include key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, 0DTE options, CTAs and VIX optionality.

High Grade Rally and Supply Deluge: Credit Crunch

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 11:59:48 -0000

Investment grade had a sustained good run in the past four months with spreads compressing all the way combined with bumper supply in the new year. How long will it sustain and are we due a correction if spreads are indeed rich? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discusses the investment grade market with Heema Patel, Credit Strategy Associate at Bloomberg Intelligence.

We discuss the place of high grade relative to rates as well as high yield, this year's record supply, valuations, upcoming ECB QT and its impact on high grade, along with high grade ratings and fundamentals in detail.

Muni SMA Juggernaut Gives Their Take on How 2023 Shapes Up: Masters of the Muniverse

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 14:42:00 -0000

In this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by Adam Stern, the co-head of research at Breckinridge Capital Advisors. Breckinridge is a $42 billion asset manager and has long been considered one of the industry's firsts in muni ESG. Stern gives his take on the current state of Muniland, and if ESG investors are losing confidence in the designation and standards. muni ESG

High Yield 1Q Survey and Outlook: Credit Crunch

Wed, 08 Feb 2023 13:02:25 -0000

The European high yield default rate remains at zero, and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds continues to fall given a long rally. How long will it sustain and when do we see a default wave, if any? Please join Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence as he discussed the results of the 1Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.

We discussed our 1Q23 survey publication covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default view, supply forecast, relative by geography, rating and sectors in detail. We also addressed the macroeconomic outlook affecting high yield in the near and long term.

Mark Andersen of UBS AG, What now for the dollar?: FX Moment

Mon, 06 Feb 2023 17:39:00 -0000

In our latest FX Moment Podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist, talks currency prospects with Mark Andersen, Global Head of Asset Allocation at UBS Wealth Management. In particular, Mark and Audrey discuss the US dollar outlook following the remarkably strong US January employment report and to what extent this data is a game changer, or not, for the currency prospects for the rest of the year.

US, UK, EUR Rates Markets: Macro Matters

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 15:58:51 -0000

Short maturity government bond yields in Europe and the US may move somewhat high in the near term, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by his European counterpart Huw Worthington to discuss the February meetings of the US, UK and European central banks and the corresponding rate markets. Jersey notes his view that the market still doesn’t think the Federal Reserve can remain on hold, even though Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly said the Fed wouldn’t cut. Worthington thinks short-term German yields are about 0.5% too low, but that the markets are broadly in a range near term.

In the Interest Rate Intro segment, BI Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey why he thinks the market doesn’t believe in the Fed’s resolve.

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King Street's Goldschmid Talks Shop, J&J's 3rd Circuit Loss

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 13:43:42 -0000

"It takes a long time to slow things down, especially when you’ve just pumped $2.5 trillion of monetary stimulus into the economy," Paul Goldschmid, partner & co-portfolio manager at King Street Capital, says about why this credit cycle may take longer to play out vs. those seen in the past 20-30 years.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how credit is hard to keep down in January as well as what’s next, followed by an in-depth feature interview with Goldschmid about distressed markets today and King Street’s investment process (6:15). Negisa Balluku joins the podcast to talk about Johnson & Johnson’s litigation loss in the Third Circuit, Party City and Genesis (1:03:07).

Preparing for Landing: All Options Considered

Fri, 27 Jan 2023 15:11:19 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses the key themes from the volatility markets year-to-date, reflects on the low volatility regime and the outlook ahead.

Last Year’s Laggards Are This Year’s Leaders: EM Lens

Wed, 25 Jan 2023 14:39:26 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Sergey Goncharov, Emerging Market Portfolio Manager at Vontobel. Goncharov shares his outlook for EM credit, as primary markets are open for business and corporate default rates remain low amid rising risk of recession. Central bank policy rates are well above pre-pandemic levels, and we see potential to receive in EM local debt markets as monetary tightening subsides.

Remote Work Prophet Comes to Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse

Mon, 23 Jan 2023 15:22:28 -0000

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by Stanford University Professor and "Prophet of Remote Work," Nick Bloom. We discuss how remote work has a history much deeper than the pandemic and what the future may look like for the workplace, cities and public transit.

Brown Rudnick's Stark on Bankruptcy Playbook: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 11:00:00 -0000

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss distressed debt’s awful 2022 performance and what’s next. Then, Philip and BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku have an in-depth feature interview with Robert J. Stark, Chair of Brown Rudnick’s Bankruptcy & Corporate Restructuring group on corporate restructuring strategies and dynamics from all angles (8:00). Finally, Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join them for a roundtable discussion on names in the news - FTX, Voyager, Cineworld, Revlon, Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and Endo. (1:43:32).

Listeners are also invited to join Bloomberg Intelligence Analysts Negisa Balluku and Holly Froum on Jan. 27 at 10:00 AM as they revisit the intersection of mass torts and bankruptcy in light of the evolving legal framework.

https://bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_gw4NrtsRTn-GBen_qfxBzg

With key rulings on the horizon, large corporate defendants and lawyers alike are keeping an eye on 3M and Johnson & Johnson’s attempts to short-circuit mass tort litigation via Chapter 11.

Leveraged Loan Outlook and Review: Credit Crunch

Thu, 19 Jan 2023 06:00:00 -0000

CLOs are driving loan supply and in our second Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Paul Mehta, Head of Leveraged Loans at Aberdeen, reflected on how the leveraged loan market fared last year and the outlook for loans in 2023.

We discussed our leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth vs. the bond market in detail. We also addressed the outlook for CLO issuance and arbitrage for 2023.

DM Rates Outlook: Macro Matters

Wed, 18 Jan 2023 16:07:55 -0000

Developed market central banks continue to fight inflation, but are at different points in tightening monetary policy. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England may be nearing the end of hiking regimes, while the European Central Bank may be somewhat slower to end tightening, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Interest Rate Strategists.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Huw Worthington, BI's European Interest Rate Strategist. Worthington reviews his views on how much further the ECB and BoE may increase rates and the affect that may have on government bond yields. He also discusses the different ways central bank balance sheet runoff may increase net issuance of debt - which creates risk for some countries. Italy in particular is a worry for the London based Worthington, with the ECB potentially needing to intervene if spreads widen. The possibility of the Bank of Japan eliminating yield curve control is also discussed.

In a new segment of the podcast, “Interest Rate Intro,” US Interest Rate Associate Strategist Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the interaction of central bank Treasury purchases and market pricing.

ECB and BOE Credit QT Scope and Impact: Credit Crunch

Mon, 09 Jan 2023 15:47:14 -0000

In our inaugural Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Credit Strategist and Heema Patel, Credit Strategy Associate, reflected on the scope and impact on credit markets of Quantitative Tightening by the ECB and BOE in 2023. Our positive outlook for credit returns in Europe is in place but the central banks have a key role in deciding if such a view will materialise or not. This podcast aims to give an idea of the size and monthly pace of such quantitative tightening by the ECB and BOE and what can cause the markets to spook.

Quant Modeling: Macro Matters

Thu, 05 Jan 2023 15:55:55 -0000

Quantitative modeling is an ever growing component of financial analysis, with most investors using some form of it within their investment processes.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Vera Tian and Alex Montiel, Bloomberg Data Scientists working with the BI FICC research team. Tian discusses how she developed the BI Rates model for two-year inflation swaps and the work she’s doing on equity-derivative markets. Her work allows investors to determine how much the market is long or short gamma, giving a clue to potential market moves. Montiel describes the process for building the BI Rates Federal Reserve sentiment model and iterations thereof. He and Jersey note that data availability are important. Montiel also previews a fair-value model of the Treasury yield curve.

In a new segment of the podcast, “Interest Rate Intro,” US Interest Rate Associate Strategist Will Hoffman asks Jersey about the repurchase agreement market — what is it, how does it work and why is it important?

There Are Views Outside Dollar Bearish Box in 2023: FX Moment

Wed, 04 Jan 2023 21:34:37 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, Chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu and EMEA EM FX and Rates Strategist Sergei Voloboev reflect on the outlook for global currencies as we start 2023 and more specifically, on the extent to which the late 4Q 2022 dollar sell-off affects their 2023 currency outlooks, if at all. They also contemplate some relevant FX views and themes outside the dollar box for this year.

Our analysts' 2023 dollar bearish narrative is intact, but this can't be a linear view and a temporary risk-off return - that could could be triggered by a wide range of drivers including a shift back to more hawkish Fed expectations, earnings disappointment and/or geopolitical jitters, China macro concerns - could revive the US dollar in 1Q.

All Options Considered End-of-Year Episode: All Options Considered

Tue, 20 Dec 2022 15:22:04 -0000

Big Banks Think 2023 Muniland Rebounds: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 16 Dec 2022 11:00:00 -0000

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and co-host Karen Altamirano are joined by three local men who have differing takes on the municipal landscape for 2023 and in some cases hope that their calls for the year ahead are not dashed by unforeseen forces, once again. In no particular order they are joined by Peter Degroot Head of Municipal Research and Strategy at JP Morgan, Vikram Rai Head of Municipal Strategy at Citi and Mikhail Foux Head of Municipal Research at Barclays.

Dec. Fed Plus MBS Deep Dive: Macro Matters

Thu, 15 Dec 2022 18:46:18 -0000

The market will eventually believe that the Federal Reserve's "Put" is further out of the money meaning the central bank may keep the federal funds rate at the peak for longer than the market is pricing, says BI Chief US Rate Strategist Ira Jersey.

In this Macro Matter's edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI Mortgage Strategist. Jersey first discusses the December Federal Reserve meeting, his market outlook, and his view that the market will eventually believe in the Fed's resolve to bring inflation down via keeping interest rates higher for longer.

Adelberg then discusses the micro foundations of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market, from underwriting to settlement. She describes the To Be Announced (TBA) market, how it fits into the financial landscape, and gives thoughts to the affect of "specified pools" of mortgages being included in the Bloomberg Structured Products Index.

Fundamentally Triggered, EM Rally Fueled By Repositioning: EM Lens

Wed, 14 Dec 2022 15:23:31 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Christian Lawrence, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at Rabobank. Lawrence reflects on valuations amid the ongoing position squeeze, and shares his year-ahead outlook for emerging market rates and FX. Latin America stands out as the region is rife with risk premia that is tightly correlated to thematic macroeconomic variables.

Mark Shapiro on FTX, After Living Lehman & Distress Round-Up: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 09 Dec 2022 14:16:00 -0000

“End of the day, there was a 45-cent recovery to unsecured creditors of Lehman. Do you think that’s going to happen here [with FTX]?...It’s apples and oranges. Because Lehman had a real asset base,” Mark J. Shapiro, Shearman & Sterling Partner and Chairman of the Financial Restructuring & Insolvency group, says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss distressed debt’s poor performance year-to-date. BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Shapiro on FTX’s sharp fall, having witnessed Lehman’s collapse as its Head of Restructuring in 2008 (8:18). Hebert, Brendel and Balluku review their latest observations of crypto, Endo International, 3M, Diamond Sports Group, Talen Energy and Cineworld (27:49).

Bloomberg Intelligence will host a webinar on Cineworld’s Bankruptcy & Wider Industry Implications on Dec. 16 at 10:30 am ET. Click here to register: https://bloomberg.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_1pvGba9SRRqKQewVpB0v1w

Bloomberg Aggregate Index Outlook: Macro Matters

Thu, 08 Dec 2022 19:54:02 -0000

Treasury yields may fall further by the end of 2023, leading to positive returns for the Bloomberg Aggregate Index overall, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and BI Chief Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg to discuss their outlook for the Bloomberg Aggregate Index. Jersey notes that his view that Treasury yields could decline further by the end of next year is based on a slowing of economic activity, but with the Federal Reserve loath to ease interest rates too soon thereby causing more yield-curve inversion in 1H, followed by bull steepening (less inversion) in 2H.

Adelberg sees the possibility for positive excess returns in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). She notes a lack of supply and wider spreads could bring in buyers of MBS, and that the risk of a convexity-related mortgage-refinancing wage is unlikely. Hebert says that corporate issuance may slow in 2023 and that a slower economic environment could mean modestly negative excess returns for investment-grade corporate debt.

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2023 Evolving FX Drivers and Losing US Dollar Appeal: FX Moment

Wed, 07 Dec 2022 16:05:19 -0000

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G10 FX strategist, along with chief Asia FX and rates strategist Stephen Chiu, reflect on next year's Global FX Outlook and assert that evolving FX drivers mean that conditions for a weaker US dollar are in place as we contemplate 2023. There are risks to the view and it's not a linear outlook, but looming inflation and rate peaks, a shift of focus from inflation to growth and a return in risk appetite mean that the case for holding dollars is weakening considerably.

Munis Fight Regulation and Change: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:28:10 -0000

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Boards; President and CEO, Mark Kim. This edition comes at a time when municipal fixed income is feeling pressure from evolutionary forces. In fact, one of the best analogies we can give, is that munis are the John Dutton of fixed income Yellow Stone ranch, and the asset class is hell bent on resisting any sort of change or threats. However, if we take a step back and look across the landscape of investing, we could all agree that more change and transparency is never a bad thing.

UK Economic Outlook, Bond Market Volatility: All Options Considered

Wed, 23 Nov 2022 21:56:58 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, BE's Senior UK Economist. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds and the outlook for the economy.

Goldman’s 2023 Rate Call: Macro Matters

Thu, 17 Nov 2022 17:29:12 -0000

“We are certainly not talking about six or seven percent [federal funds target rate, but]... modestly above 5%,” Goldman Sachs Chief Interest Rate Strategist Praveen Korapaty says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.

In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Korapaty to discuss his team’s outlook for the Federal Reserve policy action and Treasury yields for 2023. Korapaty discusses his view that 10-year yields may climb above the recent highs and his view that interest rate cuts won’t come early. Jersey and Korapaty also discuss the transition from Libor to the secured overnight financing rate.

Structural Bulls or Sluggish Bears? Trend Reversal Lifts All EM Boats: EM Lens

Thu, 17 Nov 2022 13:00:00 -0000

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Kaushik Rudra, Managing Director & Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Standard Chartered Bank. Rudra shares his outlook for emerging market fixed income, as falling US treasury yields and a weaker dollar fuel the technical rally in risk assets. China remains in focus following recent steps by Beijing to alleviate pressure on the domestic economy, and property market in particular.

The Path to a Euro-Dollar Recovery: FX Moment

Thu, 10 Nov 2022 13:02:00 -0000

Fed’s What Next: Macro Matters

Tue, 08 Nov 2022 18:22:39 -0000

“Powell did a masterful job in neutralizing the market rally from [after the Federal Reserve] put out its statement. I think Powell did what he needed to in order to ensure they could slow the pace of rate hikes, while moving the terminal rate higher,” Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong says on this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus Podcast.

In this Macro Matter’s edition, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Wong to discuss the aftermath of the November Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Wong notes her view that the market is pricing for her current expectation of rate hikes. Jersey and Wong then discuss how long the Fed may keep the federal funds rate at its peak, how the future economic situation may develop, and what the Fed’s reaction function could be. Wong then produces an impromptu Fun Fed Fact segment explaining how the “dual mandate” developed in the late 1970s.

Prof. Jacoby on Mass Torts & Bankruptcy, Distressed's Slow Climb: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 04 Nov 2022 10:00:00 -0000

With distressed supply settling back following a test of June’s highs, Bloomberg Intelligence expects it may consolidate a bit between $100-$150 billion as seasonal trends turn supportive in December, and believes this distressed supply rise will continue, however, more likely in drawn out and steady fashion rather than quick and volatile. FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss the leisurely pace of this distressed cycle and when it may pick up. Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku has an in-depth feature interview with Melissa B. Jacoby, Professor of Law at UNC School of Law (7:50) and Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the panel to share thoughts on distressed credits in the cinema and crypto spaces, as well as Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Revlon and Incora (42:40).

Hybrids Plummet, Private Credit Booms, Pensions Dive: Credit Chat

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 16:11:09 -0000

Hybrids have significantly underperformed in 2022 and now trade wider than their high yield brethren, a trend that could extend into 2023. Private credit continues to grow assets and influence, yet spreads trail far behind their similar named “parent” companies. Bloomberg Intelligence’s global analysis also suggests changes in discount rates could be a big benefit for pension liabilities. This month’s podcast highlights the credit implications for BT, Telefonica, Boeing, Blackstone, KKR and other business-development companies.

In this Credit Chat edition, European TMT analyst Aidan Cheslin, US Financials analyst David Havens and US Industrials analyst Matthew Geudtner join Robert Schiffman to discuss declining hybrid valuations, the growth of the private credit industry and the impact of rising rates on pension underfunding.

UK Bond Volatility, Crypto to Housing Market: All Options Considered

Mon, 31 Oct 2022 17:50:15 -0000

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Professor Gregory Besharov at the University of Oxford. They discuss the volatility in UK bonds, crypto and the housing market.

EM Currencies Battle, But China Still Elephant in Room: EM Lens

Fri, 28 Oct 2022 16:56:41 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Rohit Goel, Director of Macro Research at Breakout Capital. Goel shares his outlook for EM currencies, as persistent dollar strength fuels the call for coordinated FX intervention. China remains the elephant in the room, and Goel shares his views following this month's Communist Party Congress.

TIPS and Inflation-Linked Securities: Macro Matters

Thu, 27 Oct 2022 14:50:20 -0000

“There is significant interest rate risk in TIPS in ETFs and Mutual Funds because they can’t necessarily get enough leverage to do a break-even trade,” Winshore Capital Partners Portfolio Manager Robert Tzucker tells Bloomberg Intelligence.

In this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Tzucker to discuss Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and other inflation linked instruments. Tzucker discusses how TIPS work, market liquidity and that he believes that TIPS are the market expectation of inflation, but the market sometimes gets it wrong. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the October Bank of Canada and European Central Bank meetings that were relatively dovish to expectations. Jersey then answers the question of how this week’s central bank decisions might affect near-term Federal Reserve announcements.

US Pension Fund Investing: Macro Matters

Fri, 21 Oct 2022 13:16:50 -0000

"Who would have thought LDI would be in the popular press in my whole career?" says David Eichhorn, CEO of NISA Investment Advisors on this edition of the FICC Focus Podcast.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Eichhorn joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss Liability Driven Investments (LDI), particularly US Defined Benefit pension plan, which he helps manage. Eichhorn discusses how LDI investments differ from other types of plans, how his firm manages risk, and his view for the future of the pension industry. During a discussion about if US pensions could contribute to a market move similar to what occurred in the UK in the recent past, Eichhorn notes that US plans take much less interest risk and manager derivative collateral much differently than their cousins across the pond. The show's Fun Fed Fact segment takes a bit of a turn when BI Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos and Jersey discuss the Treasury Refunding dealer questions about potential Treasury buybacks and TIPS issuance.

Tough Year of Returns: Masters of the Muniverse

Mon, 17 Oct 2022 17:53:24 -0000

Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at Abrdn Plc, talks about his outlook for state and local debt after a rough 2022.

Global Financial Crisis Part Deux? Unlikely: Credit Chat

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 15:07:01 -0000

Global banks are much better positioned from a capital and liquidity perspective than they were heading into the 2008 financial crisis, yet pockets of concern are beginning to percolate. Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis suggests solid credit quality is supported by considerable liquidity, but potential funding needs for U.S. Bancorp, PNC Financial, Truist and Mitsubishi UFJ may create bond-pricing anomalies, while Credit Suisse’s ultimate fate is a major question mark.

In this Credit Chat edition, Senior US, European and Asia Bank Analysts Arnold Kakuda, Jeroen Julius and Pri de Silva join Robert Schiffman, to share their views on bank balance-sheet flexibility, rising funding needs and increased volatility of bond and credit-default swap prices.

How Close Are We to a US Dollar Turnaround?: FX Moment

Fri, 07 Oct 2022 17:57:45 -0000

In our latest FX Moment Podcast, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, along with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the 4Q FX Outlook, with the US dollar bullish drivers arguably priced in and the currency looking stretched and overvalued, but a catalyst for a turnaround has yet to be identified.

Our FX Strategists also touch on the theme of FX interventions, which may become more frequent in some cases, but when unilateral in nature, aren't likely to sustainably reverse the trend.

Canyon's Todd Lemkin, Distressed Surging, & Cine-Worry: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 06 Oct 2022 14:43:00 -0000

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss September’s rise in distressed supply amid a dearth of risk appetite. Included is an in-depth feature interview with Todd Lemkin, Chief Investment Officer of Canyon Partners (6:15). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon join the panel to share thoughts on Endo International, Celsius Network, Voyager Digital, Cineworld, Bed, Bath & Beyond, JUUL, and Envision Healthcare (1:07:15).

US Infrastructure with Henry Cisneros: Masters of the Muniverse

Mon, 03 Oct 2022 17:04:59 -0000

Amanda Albright and Eric Kazatsky are joined by Henry Cisneros, Chairman of American Triple I Partners, to talk about US infrastructure and why Cisneros sees a 'golden' era ahead.

Aftermath of Mini-Budget on Volatility, Economy: All Options Considered

Fri, 30 Sep 2022 16:35:57 -0000

In this special UK edition of the All Options Considered podcast on volatility, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by BE's Chief European Economist, Jamie Rush. They discuss the market turmoil and economic outlook in the aftermath of the UK mini-budget.

Is Sterling Nearing Currency Crisis Status?: FX Moment

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 15:09:24 -0000

In our sixth FX Moment Podcast, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, along with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of currency crisis and whether this applies to the current FX market environment. Our FX Strategists touch on the increasingly debated sterling crisis theme and look back into past currency crisis situations for more insights on the current context.

Relentless Dollar Strength Leaves EM Currencies in Limbo: EM Lens

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 13:01:09 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Mr. Caesar Maasry, Managing Director & Head of EM Cross-Asset Research at Goldman Sachs. Maasry shares his outlook for emerging market currencies, as relentless dollar strength is fueling comparisons to the early 1980s when coordinated central bank intervention was required to stem the pain.

Rise of the Muni ETF: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 17:59:32 -0000

Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by Senior Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas to discuss the rise of municipal ETFs, current pricing wars and predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles 2022-23 season.

Managing Endowments: Macro Matters

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 14:30:29 -0000

“The drivers of secular stagnation were... Technology, demographics, and globalization... They may have changed a little bit, but not that much,” Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of the Lafayette College Endowment tells Bloomberg Intelligence, noting his view that secular stagnation will return.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, Memani joins BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the differences between being a sell side analyst, mutual fund manager and managing an endowment. Jersey asks about the process of analysis and asset-class selection within an endowment and alpha generation. Memani also gives his outlook for the economy longer term, including his view that secular stagnation, an environment of low inflation and low real growth, will return as the Federal Reserve finishes fighting inflation. BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos joins for the podcast’s Fun Fed Facts segment. He talks about the Fed’s updated “dot plot” and Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that sales of securities isn’t imminent.

S&P 500 Volatility and UK Inflation: All Options Considered

Fri, 16 Sep 2022 15:00:00 -0000

In this third edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker is joined by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu and Partner at Dominice, Pierre de Saab, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape.

Sycamore Tree's Trey Parker, Market Recap, 3M and Cineworld: State of Distressed Debt

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 14:25:00 -0000

It’s been a surprisingly calm summer for credit, but a rocky fall may be on tap, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss what credit looked like in the summer and what could potentially happen in the fall. They are joined by Trey Parker, Sycamore Tree Capital Partners Co-founder & Chief Investment Officer, for an in-depth feature interview. (6:42) BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon also share thoughts on Revlon, 3M, Celsius Network, Cineworld and Bed, Bath, and Beyond. (42:50)

Risk Alert? Shipping, Retail, Asia Banks: Credit Chat

Tue, 13 Sep 2022 15:38:54 -0000

Rising rates and recessionary fears are growing, yet credit across continents and sectors may be well positioned for additional supply and demand headwinds. Analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence suggests strong credit profiles, access to low cost capital and considerable financial flexibility are supportive of reduced volatility for Walmart, Home Depot, Maersk, CMA CGM, DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking, even as global recessionary risks rise.

Mortgage Market Mayhem: Macro Matters

Thu, 08 Sep 2022 17:55:00 -0000

High mortgage rates are have a negative effect on Agency mortgage-back securities performance relative to Treasuries, and the Fed's quantitative tightening may make it worse due to changes in sector allocations in the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Chief Agency Mortgage Strategist Erica Adelberg and BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos who discuss the mortgage market, Canadian interest rates, and how central bank balance sheet runoff could affect the relative returns of several asset classes.

Decline in Market Value of Benchmark-Eligible Debt: EM Lens

Fri, 02 Sep 2022 14:59:07 -0000

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Win Thin, Senior Vice President & Global Head of Market Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman. Thin shares his outlook for emerging market currencies, as the stronger greenback is suppressing non-dollar asset class returns, causing the market value of benchmark-eligible debt to decline by nearly 6% in the last month alone.

Political Partisanship: Macro Matters

Thu, 25 Aug 2022 14:54:33 -0000

Political partisanship in Congress will remain wide, which could cause government shutdowns and another debt-ceiling crisis in late 2023, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Government Analyst Nathan Dean as the two discuss the upcoming midterm congressional elections, the federal budget continuing resolution and how political partisanship could affect markets. Dean also talks about scenarios if President Joe Biden doesn’t run for reelection. The US Rates Strategy team recently highlighted increased political partisanship in the Senate.

In today’s Fun Fed Fact segment, BI North American Rates Strategist Angelo Manolotos reviews the previous Jackson Hole address by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Jersey and Manolatos discuss what Powell might highlight in his Aug. 26 speech.

How Does China's Macro Predicament Affects Our Calls: FX Moment

Fri, 19 Aug 2022 15:29:30 -0000

In our fifth FX Moment edition, the host, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman discusses China's current cyclical conundrum, the PBOC outlook and currency implications with Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu.

While the weakening Chinese growth dynamics leave the yuan exposed near-term, it does not alter Stephen's more constructive long-term outlook for the Chinese currency.

Bet on Gaming, Health Care, Retail Credit?: Credit Chat

Tue, 16 Aug 2022 16:44:01 -0000

A 2H recovery may not be the rising tide that lifts all boats as recession, inflation and remaining Covid-19-lockdown risks disproportionately have a negative impact across pockets of health care providers, Macau gaming operations and European consumer and beverage debt issuers. Our global Bloomberg Intelligence team’s analysis suggests competitive pressures may further push Weight Watchers spreads wider, while inflation affects margins for Carrefour and Tesco, and Macau’s casino recovery remains slow.

In this Credit Chat edition, Louise Parker, BI European consumer analyst, Cecilia Chan, BI Asia gaming and tech analyst and Mike Holland, BI health care analyst join Robert Schiffman, BI senior credit analyst, to share their views on rising food and beverage prices, China’s gaming challenges and why historically defensive health care credits are showing signs of distress.

New Mesirow CEO Eyes Market In Transition: Masters of the Muniverse

Mon, 15 Aug 2022 15:06:00 -0000

The financial services industry has been challenged for years with firms having to navigate the global pandemic and remote work, all while dealing with legacy battles such as fee compression, customer retention and talent recruitment. To that last point, starting a new role during the pandemic is a difficult task for some. Starting a new role as CEO is even more challenging.

On this month's Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and co-host Amanda Albright are joined by the new Chief Executive Officer of Mesirow, Natalie Brown.

US Rates Potpourri: Macro Matters

Thu, 11 Aug 2022 16:23:49 -0000

If the market prices out Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2023, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey thinks that could be enough for the Treasury yield curve to invert more than it has in 40 years.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host Jersey is joined by Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Manolatos reviews some details of the consumer price report, including how sticker, lower volatility sectors continue to contribute 3% (more than half) to core CPI - and more worrying is that medium volatility sector prices continue to accelerate. Jersey discusses his views for the Treasury market, including a core view that the yield curve could invert even more.

In today’s Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolotos highlights that the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policy making group, has all seats filled for the first time since July 2013. Jersey notes that given the disparate ideologies on the FOMC, a member of the board of governors may dissent in coming quarters.

Market Recap, Moelis' Bill Derrough, Crypto: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 04 Aug 2022 19:14:10 -0000

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discusses with BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel the first up month for distressed in 2022. Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the call to present the interview she and Brendel conducted with Bill Derrough, Moelis & Company's Global Co-Head of the Capital Structure Advisory (6:07). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the panel to share her thoughts on Revlon as well as 3M's and Johnson & Johnson's recent mass tort Chapter 11 cases. (1:07:14). Wrapping up the call is a discussion on the abrupt collision between Crypto and Chapter 11.

Fed’s Not Quite Done: Macro Matters

Thu, 28 Jul 2022 19:56:48 -0000

If Bloomberg Economics is right at the Federal Reserve hikes to 5%, the two-year Treasury yield should be near 4% and the Treasury yield curve would be more inverted, notes Bloomberg Intelligence.

In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Wong discusses why she thinks the Federal Reserve wasn’t as dovish as the market thought, and why additional interest rate hikes may be in the cards even after a soft 2Q GDP print. She details the BE version of the Taylor Rule and her belief that it’s superior to more traditional models. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos quips that the Fed’s statement is now 268 words, but could get somewhat shorter over time. Jersey jests that the statement length and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet have been broadly correlated. The strategists briefly discuss the statement as a communications tool in different regimes.

ECB, Bonds and Crypto Volatility: All Options Considered

Wed, 27 Jul 2022 15:42:00 -0000

In this second edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker and Co-Head of Derivatives Strategy at Susquehanna International Group, Chris Murphy, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape of the bond market to S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

China Doom or Recovery, Industrial M&A Risk?: Credit Chat

Tue, 26 Jul 2022 15:59:24 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, Global Head of Credit Research, Daniel Fan, Senior China Real Estate Analyst and Pri De Silva, Senior Asia Financial Institutions Analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on downgrade recession risk for US industrials, the impact of potential “boycotts” on China property value and limited financial risk for the Chinese banking system.

A slowdown in growth is unlikely to affect China’s banking system, avoiding a 2008-like crisis, yet the country’s real estate sector may become further depressed. In contrast, despite over $150 billion of industrial bonds at risk of downgrade, recession fears in the US could be overblown. Following GE’s decision to separate in multiple stand-alone entities, 3M is following suit, with potentially Danaher not far behind, scenarios that may be beneficial for all parts of the capital structure.

New York State of Mind: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 21 Jul 2022 14:16:58 -0000

In this edition of Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by New York State Comptroller, Thomas Dinapoli. We cover such topics as the recovery of the State and New York City from the worst of the pandemic, tackling pension returns in a volatile environment, challenges ahead for State finances and the debate over best baseball teams.

Is the U.S. Dollar Overvalued?: FX Moment

Mon, 18 Jul 2022 13:49:36 -0000

In our fourth FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of FX valuation, with particular interest on whether the U.S. Dollar may be overvalued.

Our FX Strategists look into their updated BEER, fair value model and assess whether the dollar may be overvalued vs its G10 peers.

Western Hemisphere Rates: Macro Matters

Fri, 15 Jul 2022 13:27:41 -0000

The yield curves in the US and Canadian dollar could invert more than any cycle since the early 1980s and the German government curve might not invert at all, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Strategists.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Huw Worthington, BI Chief European Rates Strategist and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist to talk about current inflation, the central bank and the differences and similarities between recent and coming interest rate moves. Angelo kicks off the podcast reviewing Canada’s 1% interest rate increase on July 13 and his view for additional hikes. Huw discusses why the ECB has been somewhat behind other central banks in raising policy rates. As the show was being recorded, the euro-dollar exchange rate moved through parity to 0.9966 generating a conversation about currencies to end the show

Fixed Income Returns Turn Positive?: Global Fixed Income Forecasts

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 15:51:22 -0000

In this Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower and Bloomberg ESG Index head Chris Hackel.

Sassower and Jersey discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Don't Sleep on 60-40 as Fixed Income Return Forecasts Rebound. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Sassower notes that $9 trillion of market cap has been destroyed during the past year's selloff. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns. Hackel discusses shifts in client interest for ESG index product, and notes some of the trends in that asset growth for ESG product, particularly after the explosion of equity ESG funds.

Assessing the Landscape for EM Private Equity: EM Lens

Fri, 08 Jul 2022 11:42:41 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Cate Ambrose, Chief Executive Officer of the Global Private Capital Association. Ambrose shares her outlook for EM private equity, with a focus on the sectors, countries and opportunities capturing interest from institutional investors across the globe.

Current Market Views & Litigation Claims: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 07 Jul 2022 15:45:37 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss the ongoing surge in distressed debt and how long it may last; Marathon Asset Management's Bruce Richards shares his distressed market views with Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon (6:30); Phil, Noel, and Eliza are then joined by BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, who details material risks to Citibank's potential bankruptcy claims against Revlon and TPC Group noteholders' priority spat.

Assessing the Impact of a U.S. Recession on Emerging Market Fixed Income: EM Lens

Fri, 01 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

SPECIAL EPISODE | Risk of a U.S. recession is growing more likely, with the potential to impact valuations across EM asset classes. As Fed tightening, China lock-downs and the war in Ukraine collide, who is best positioned and why? How has the risk of contagion evolved across EM and how do you expect policy makers to respond? Join industry leaders from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Brown Brothers Harriman as we explore the key trends that are reshaping the global investment landscape.

Portfolio Manager Perspectives & Positioning in an Inflationary Environment: EM Lens

Fri, 01 Jul 2022 11:00:00 -0000

SPECIAL EPISODE | After nearly four decades of dormant inflation, EM economies must now contend with rising price pressures and the possibility that they may take longer to dissipate than initially anticipated. What is the impact of higher interest rates on market structure and liquidity? Is a more persistent inflationary impulse causing creditors to adjust their investment timelines? Join industry experts from Pimco, Lazard, Cerberus, Itau and Swiss Re as we explore the key trends that are reshaping the global investment landscape.

Has the Dollar Peaked Yet?: FX Moment

Thu, 30 Jun 2022 20:36:36 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassoweris joined by Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Latin America fixed income & FX strategy at Bank of America. Irigoyen shares his outlook for the region in the wake of higher inflation, slower growth and the broader shift toward populism.

Inflation & Populism in Latin America: EM Lens

Wed, 29 Jun 2022 12:35:21 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Claudio Irigoyen, Head of Latin America fixed income & FX strategy at Bank of America. Irigoyen shares his outlook for the region in the wake of higher inflation, slower growth and the broader shift toward populism.

Muni Bonds Discover the Blockchain: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:09:49 -0000

Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss new developments at the intersection of the sleepy municipal bond market and blockchain technologies. This week we are joined by Tammie Arnold and Stephen Winterstein from Alpha Ledger.

Corporate Strategy: Macro Matters

Fri, 17 Jun 2022 11:52:58 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Noel Hebert, BI Chief US Credit Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist.

Jersey shares his thoughts on the June FOMC meeting, which he calls a “dovish 75-basis point hike” as Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that interest rate increases of that magnitude wouldn’t be common, and said he expects the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate to over 4%. Hebert then discusses the fundamentals, technicals and valuation of the investment grade and high yield corporate bond markets. He notes a shift in investor preference toward floating rate loans and the challenges some companies may have as rate increases bump up interest expense. Hebert also reviews some sectors he’s concerned with, and others which may outperform as the Fed tightens monetary policy. In this episode’s Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews the Fed’s summary of economic projections and the dot plot, noting how, if the high dot for year-end is realized, there would need to be at least one additional 75-bp move before year-end.

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Volatility Landscape: All Options Considered

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 20:26:15 -0000

In this first edition of All Options Considered, Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker is joined by BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu and Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Artemis Capital Advisers, Christopher Cole, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape.

Why Retail, Crypto Are Punishing Credit: Credit Chat

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 12:33:40 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Mike Campellone and David Havens to discuss the increasing risks in the retail and financial services sectors on inventory and supply chain issues, inflation, rising rates and the drop in crypto valuations.

New Distressed Debt Surge: State of Distressed Debt

Wed, 08 Jun 2022 17:06:00 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI's bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss why we believe a new distressed debt surge is starting, developments and ramifications of J&J's Talc subsidiary's strategic Chapter 11 filing, reports of Revlon debt restructuring talks, Talen Energy and TPC Group.

Asset Class Selection: Macro Matters

Thu, 02 Jun 2022 18:37:17 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ben Emons, Managing Director of Global Macro Strategy at Medley Global Advisors, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist.Emons discusses his views on the commodity, equity and fixed income markets, including how energy prices affect some equity sector spending patterns and how input costs are impacting earnings. Additional downside in stocks is possible, he notes. Jersey and Emons then discuss Federal Reserve monetary policy and the possible terminal rate for the federal funds target rate. In this episode's Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos' reviews the Fed's profit remittances to the Treasury Department and how they could develop over time. Jersey notes that the lack of remittances may mean little to Treasury supply as budget deficits continue to improve.

Currency Peg & Developments in the U.S. dollar: FX Moment

Fri, 27 May 2022 12:19:00 -0000

In our Second FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the U.S. dollar and explore the theme of currency peg, with a focus on the HKD.

Our FX Strategists discuss the recent dollar price action, with a focus on what triggered the pull-back and on whether it can be a sustained pull-back.

Credit Recession, Depression or Just Right?: Credit Chat

Tue, 24 May 2022 16:35:00 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Van Hesser, Senior Managing Director and Chief Strategist at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, to discuss the transition from stimulus-fueled super growth back to normal and its impact on high grade and high yield credit spread direction and volatility.

Mortgage Market & Fed QT: Macro Matters

Thu, 19 May 2022 17:56:00 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Erica Adelberg, BI Mortgage Strategist, and Angelo Manolatos, BI Senior Associate Interest Rate Strategist.

Adelberg discusses how the agency mortgage-backed securities differs in structure from other fixed income asset classes and reviews how the entire market structure has shifted amid climbing rates. She notes the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff and the possibility of sales of MBS and why that may be more challenging than some think. Jersey shares his view that sales in 2022 are unlikely. The call ends with the Fun Fed Facts segment and Manolatos' views on the length of the Fed's recent statements.

High Yield Fund Management with Pimco: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 13 May 2022 12:30:00 -0000

Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the worst start on record for municipal bonds and explore the key differences of active vs passive management for tax-exempts. They are joined by David Hammer Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management at PIMCO.

New Debt Distressed Surge: State of Distressed Debt

Mon, 09 May 2022 21:35:00 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments. Topics include why we expect a new distressed debt surge may be upon us, views from the recent Milken conference, GWG Holdings' difficult bankruptcy, Revlon's turnaround and Talen's liquidity struggles.

Fed Shock, Not Awe: Macro Matters

Thu, 05 May 2022 19:58:00 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist.

Wong and Jersey discuss the Federal Reserve's May 4th meeting which Chairman Jerome Powell squashed the possibility of a 75 basis point interest rate increase in June, which left the markets thinking the meeting was hawkish. Jersey notes he did not hear it that way, while Wong notes she expects two more 50 basis point increases, followed by a string of 25 basis point hikes. Wong goes over the hawkish and dovish scenarios for the the policy rate, and discuss the risk of recession in 2024 after the Fed is finished raising rates. The BI US Rates meeting reaction can be found here; while the BE reaction is available here.

Euro Focus: FX Moment

Fri, 29 Apr 2022 15:56:06 -0000

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.

In our first FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the euro and the yuan.

Our FX Strategists discuss the recent euro price action, with a focus on the lack of revival after the re-election of pro-European French President Emmanuel Macron, as the focus remains on overwhelmingly bearish international drivers. Stephen touches on the recent yuan underperformance and implications for our longer-term views on the Chinese currency.

May Fed Meeting Preview: Macro Matters

Thu, 28 Apr 2022 17:50:00 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Associate Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos.

Jersey previews his views for the May 4th FOMC meeting and discusses his view for future 50bps interest rate increases and the possible affect on the Treasury yield curve. The team's written preview can be found Fed Terminal-Rate Calibration Makes Pace of 2H Moves Uncertain. He also mentions the Treasury Department's refunding announcement expected a few hours prior to the Federal Reserve statement release. He expects coupon security auction sizes to stabilize after having been cut the past several quarters. Manolatos then discusses his view for the Bank of Canada and inflation expectations. Jersey also mentions the risk that inflation may remain above the Fed's target and what might occur if the central bank remains quite hawkish. Manolatos then discuss how quickly the Fed's Treasury Bill portfolio will runoff given current asset runoff plans.

Private Replacing Junk, Loans?: Credit Chat

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 19:30:17 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Bloomberg News' Olivia Raimonde, David Brooke and Rachel Butt to discuss what's driving this year's sharp drop in high yield debt issuance, the transition of investor demand toward leverage loans and private credit, and the rise in distressed credits.

Searching for EM Alpha? Ask the Experts: EM Lens

Tue, 19 Apr 2022 12:15:17 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by the Founder and CIO of Emso Asset Management, Mark Franklin, and the co-deputy CIO, Jens Nystedt. The guests share their outlook for emerging markets in the wake of Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging and the war in Ukraine.

Algos Take Center in Liquidity Crunch: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 13:30:00 -0000

Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss algorithmic trading and increase in electronic tool usage in the municipal industry, with guests Marty Mannion and Matt Schrager from TD Securities.

Positive Returns Even with Hawkish Central Banks: Global Fixed Income Forecasts

Mon, 11 Apr 2022 16:52:48 -0000

In this inaugural Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower.

The two discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Global Creditors Tempted to Lean In After $5 Trillion in Losses. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Jersey and Sassower also discuss one of the risk higher yields will post to returns, but Jersey notes that the path matters, suggesting higher yields may be a near-term risk, while longer term an economic slowdown is more likely. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns.

Incora's New Financing & Toys R Us Litigation: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 07 Apr 2022 13:45:06 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments in the distressed debt markets. Topics include where we are in the distressed debt credit cycle, Incora's new financing and debt exchange, Toys R Us litigation, AMC's foray into gold mining and Exela Technologies' array of capital structure maneuvers.

De-Dollarization, FX, and Treasuries: Macro Matters

Thu, 31 Mar 2022 15:59:39 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu.

The trio discuss their report “Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization,” in which they note the dollar is likely to remain the dominant reserve currency, but regional trade blocks may form. Childe-Freeman highlights the challenges for the euro to overtake to dollar, such as lack of fiscal and banking union within Europe. Chiu suggests that Chinese financial markets need to mature further for the yuan to greatly increase its use in international transactions, but notes the yuan could reach FX reserve levels similar to the pound sterling or Japanese yen.

Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R8IMK9T0AFBB

Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Overstated?: Credit Chat

Wed, 30 Mar 2022 18:25:58 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Jeroen Julius, Jody Lurie, Spencer Cutter and Mike Holland to discuss the risks, and potential rewards, a broad swath of issuers across banking, energy, healthcare and leisure as inflation rises, war rages in Ukraine and pandemic headwinds/tailwinds persist.

Putin's War Has EM Creditors Singing Bond Market Blues: EM Lens

Fri, 25 Mar 2022 13:18:47 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Blaise Antin, Managing Director & Head of Sovereign Research at TCW Group. Antin shares his outlook for emerging-markets following Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. From rising geopolitical risk to global monetary policy tightening, emerging-market debt performance should remain volatile.

High Yield Munis featuring John Miller of Nuveen: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 18 Mar 2022 15:33:00 -0000

Months long spikes in rate volatility has adversely impacted the municipal market in 2022. One of the positives to come of this sea change is that credit may start to be re-priced back into the municipal market. That could impact high yield moreso than investment grade credits. These are among the issues discussed by BI Senior U.S. Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky and guests John V. Miller from Nuveen and Bloomberg's Amanda Albright.

What's Next For the Fed?: Macro Matters

Thu, 17 Mar 2022 16:01:13 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos.

Wong and Jersey discuss their views on what's next for the Federal Reserve after it raised interest rates by 25 bps. Wong notes she was surprised by the hawkishness of the Fed's dot plot, while Jersey was surprised by Chairman Jerome Powell's mention that details of asset runoff would appear in the minutes of the meeting. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolatos reviews the developments of the dot plot and suggests that two members likely moved down their long term neutral federal funds rate expectation.

Russia-Ukraine War on Distressed Supply: State of Distressed Debt

Tue, 08 Mar 2022 15:02:39 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert contemplate how long the lull in distressed may last as analogs in the past may offer an answer. The two also discuss how the Russia-Ukraine war may impact on distressed supply, Revlon, and Diamond Sports' recent exchange offer.

Russia's EM Fallout: Macro Matters

Fri, 04 Mar 2022 17:54:36 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence EM Credit Strategist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos.

Sassower and Jersey discuss the implications of recent political events, including the UN vote after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sassower analyzes the various political actions from China, India, and even Cuba. He also discusses possible market drivers in the near term for currencies, commodities and credit spreads. Jersey notes that dollar funding doesn't appear to be driving Libor/OIS wider, but rather an expected slowdown in bank profitability. Manolatos then offers his view on the Bank of Canada's interest rate hike, and Jersey his take on the Federal Reserve and U.S. rates markets.

Restrictive Monetary Policies & Sustainable Finance: EM Lens

Tue, 22 Feb 2022 14:51:29 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Fabio Natalucci, IMF Deputy Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, and Rohit Goel, IMF Financial Sector Expert. Natalucci discusses the risks to financial stability as restrictive monetary policy overlaps with record debt levels. Goel delves into the world of EM sustainable finance as flows into ESG-related investments have surged in recent quarters.

Bitcoin's Growing Influence on Credit: Credit Chat

Wed, 16 Feb 2022 21:32:14 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by credit analysts David Havens and Himanshu Bakshi and BI's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, to discuss the rising impact of Bitcoin on corporate credit, including Coinbase and Block.

SMA Changing the Game in Muniland: Masters of the Muniverse

Mon, 14 Feb 2022 21:34:06 -0000

In this latest episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the changing landscape of muni buyers with our guest is Sylvia Yeh, Co-Head of Municipal Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. We also look at how the rocket like growth in separately managed accounts is changing the way buyers look at tax-frees.

Multi-Asset Investing: Macro Matters

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 19:42:06 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Lauren Goodwin, Investments Economist and Strategist at New York Life, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos.

Goodwin discusses her views on the inflation after the January CPI print surprised to the upside, and notes a risk that wages could continue to climb, making inflation more persistent. She explains which sectors she thinks will outperform and suggests the market may be pricing for too many Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year - with four being her base case. Manolatos reviews how the market has re-priced for the path of Fed interest rate increases and notes that the terminal rate is approaching 2% on the back of the strong inflation print.

Volatility and Declines in Treasuries: State of Distressed Debt

Fri, 04 Feb 2022 14:26:57 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss why volatility and declines in Treasuries and equity doesn't faze distressed debt supply. The two also review how Sinclair Broadcast Group stakeholders may perceive Diamond Sports Group's proposed transaction, which would bring in $600 million of new financing and shuffle Diamond's debt stack a bit.

FOMC Takeaways: Macro Matters

Thu, 27 Jan 2022 16:44:06 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI's head of Fixed Income Market Structure Research Sean Savage and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey shares his takeaways from the Jan. 26 FOMC meeting and post meeting press-conference, as well as the market reaction. Savage discusses how the central bank continues emphasizing its policy rate target as its main tool, and also the composition of the FOMC's balance sheet and how the T-bill portfolio may evolve. Manolatos says how the MBS unwind may be a bit different than last time and weighs in on the Bank of Canada's decision.

G10 FX: Macro Matters

Fri, 21 Jan 2022 13:27:03 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos.

Freeman begins discuss the reasons the dollar may have turned recently and why she's still somewhat bullish, but believes the euro could also surprise as she thinks economic growth may beat expectations. She then talks about central bank outlook may affect her view on FX, plus how currency pairs may react to a risk off event as central banks tighten monetary policy. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos reviews how the Federal Reserve started portfolio runoff in the prior tightening cycle, and how much is available for runoff if the Fed decides to take such action later this year.

It Doesn't Get Any Better Than This; Or Does It?: BI Credit Chat

Thu, 20 Jan 2022 20:52:02 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, BI's Global Head of Credit Research and Stephen Flynn, BI Sr. Telecom, Cable & Media analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the trajectory of high grade and high yield fundamentals, rising star potential, funding expectations and outlooks for Ferrari, Ford, Tesla, Netflix, T-Mobile and Dish.

Asset Class Challenges & Brazilian Election Risk: EM Lens

Thu, 20 Jan 2022 11:53:18 -0000

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Dr. Win Thin, Senior Vice President & Global Head of Market Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman. Thin shares his 2022 outlook for emerging markets, as the asset class faces challenges from Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging to Russian foreign policy, and Brazilian election risk.

Sustainable Investing in Munis: Masters of the Muniverse

Tue, 18 Jan 2022 20:52:43 -0000

In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Amanda Albright, Bloomberg News, Ksenia Koban, Payden and Rygel, Monica Reid, Kestrel Verifiers and Chris Hartshorn, ICE. All are here to discuss the municipal market and how investors and issuers are embracing sustainable investing.

Central Banks: Macro Matters

Thu, 13 Jan 2022 21:05:00 -0000

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief European Interest Rate Strategist Huw Worthington and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey discusses the end state of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and how he believes it will begin to reduce its assets beginning in May or July, soon after interest rates are first raised. Worthington says it may be a long way off from the start to asset runoff for the ECB, as the central bank said it won't start reduction until it hikes, and that is unlikely before mid-2023. And Manolatos shares his outlook for the Bank of Canada and notes that government bond liquidity may be at risk as assets run off quickly.

Intelsat's Confirmation, Nordic Aviation Capital's Chapter 11 Filing: State of Distressed Debt

Mon, 10 Jan 2022 14:17:06 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss why higher rate fears and omicron may not derail the credit rally through 1Q. The two also review Intelsat's confirmation, a recent Hertz legal decision, Nordic Aviation Capital's Chapter 11 filing, and some highs and lows of bankruptcy auction experiences.

2022 Outlook for Currency and Debt Valuations Across EM: EM Lens

Wed, 22 Dec 2021 13:40:08 -0000

In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, host and BI Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Christian Lawrence, Managing Director and Senior Cross-Asset Strategist at Rabobank. Lawrence shares his 2022 outlook for currency and debt valuations across EM. And the two assess the pace of central bank policy tightening on bond yields, credit spreads and local currencies across the globe.

Fed Policy Near & Longer Term: Macro Matters

Thu, 16 Dec 2021 20:06:32 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief US Economist Anna Wong and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey begins the show discussing the Federal Reserve's December meeting with Wong, with a focus on the press conference. Wong notes her view that the Federal Reserve may hike as early as March, with both she and Jersey agreeing an initial hike by June 2022 is very likely. Jersey notes that faster taper announcement hasn't roiled markets because he believes the January-March 2021 Treasury sell off was a "taperless tantrum." Wong also discusses her risk case scenarios for future Fed action.

In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos discusses the nuances of the Feds continued purchases and the affect on bank reserves and the Fed's reverse repurchase agreement facility. He notes that the RRP facility may fall in the near term as T-bills are issued reducing bank reserves as the Treasury General Account increases. Jersey and Manolatos discuss when, why, and how an early start to Fed balance sheet reduction may occur.

Tomorrow's Credit News Today: Credit Chat

Thu, 16 Dec 2021 15:32:00 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie and credit reporter Lisa Lee join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the credit market's biggest risks and rewards heading into 2022 with uncertainty, inflation and spreads increasing.

2021 Muni Recap and 2022 Outlook: Masters of the Muniverse

Thu, 16 Dec 2021 15:25:46 -0000

In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Peter DeGroot, Head of Municipal Bond Research and Strategies from JP Morgan, Vikram Rai, Head of Municipal Strategy at Citi, and Mikhail Foux head of Municipal Strategy and Research at Barclays. All are here to recap 2021 municipal bond successes and look ahead to the new year.

Omicron Impact & Memorable 2021 Bankruptcies: State of Distressed Debt

Thu, 09 Dec 2021 16:11:50 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert share their views on how the omicron variant may impact high yield and distressed. The two also review some memorable 2021 bankruptcy themes (Hertz, Intelsat, Washington Prime Group), and provide thoughts on the direction of distressed credits Revlon and Sinclair subsidiary Diamond Sports Group.

North American & European Interest Rates: Macro Matters

Fri, 03 Dec 2021 18:41:39 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief European Rate Strategist Huw Worthington and Interest Rate Associate Rates Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Jersey begins the show with his outlook on U.S. rate markets and the Federal Reserve in 2022, and suggests a faster taper at the December Federal Reserve meeting doesn't mean faster or fewer hikes, as the market is pricing. Worthington discusses his view on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England -- including how the BOE might conduct balance sheet reduction via bond sales should the bank hike interest rates to 1%. Manolatos provides his view on the Bank of Canada, which he thinks will be relatively hawkish, and in the Fun Fed Facts segment notes that if the Fed does double the pace of taper it will leave open possibility for interest rate liftoff at the March 2022 meeting.

Outlook for Currency and Debt Valuations in Latin America: EM Lens

Mon, 22 Nov 2021 14:32:32 -0000

Alejandro Cuadrado, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), joins Damian Sassower of Bloomberg Intelligence to share his outlook for currency and debt valuations across Latin America. The two discuss the outlook for portfolio flows, potential for future monetary tightening and post-election positioning in Argentina and Chile.

High Yield Municipals & ETF featuring Jim Colby of Van Eck: Masters of the Muniverse

Fri, 19 Nov 2021 20:40:58 -0000

In this Masters of the Muniverse edition, host BI Senior US Municipal Strategist, Eric Kazatsky is joined by Jim Colby, Senior Municipal Strategist of Van Eck, to discuss high yield municipals heading into 2022, and navigating a black swan event for an ETF.

Transitory Inflation Still in Play: Macro Matters

Thu, 18 Nov 2021 17:10:25 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Ian Shepherdson, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, to discuss inflation dynamics and the Federal Reserve's reaction function. Shepherdson doesn't believe the Fed will hike prior to 3Q22, even with the next few months' inflation running very hot. In a second segment, Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews his views on Canadian interest rates and suggests that the Bank of Canada may hike prior to the Fed, and rates generally should climb in 2022.

Inflationary Impact on Energy, Utility Debt: Credit Chat

Mon, 15 Nov 2021 22:56:18 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of energy and utility analysts (Spencer Cutter, Jaimin Patel and Paul Vickars) join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the sectors biggest risks and rewards as inflationary pressure and demand are rising.

J&J's Subsidiary's Bankruptcy & Distressed Debt Update: State of Distressed Debt:

Wed, 10 Nov 2021 20:36:04 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel join Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss how distressed debt may be stuck in a trough through May. Also discussed: The latest in Johnson & Johnson's subsidiary's (LTL Management LLC) bankruptcy filing as well as GTT Communications' pre-packaged filing.

Muni ETF Industry, Closed End Funds & New Players in Munis: The Muniland

Thu, 04 Nov 2021 18:32:38 -0000

This Muniland edition, hosted by Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky, focuses on muni ETF industry.Neil Azous, PM for Rareview Tax Advantaged Income ETF (RTAI). discusses muni ETF industry, Closed End Funds and how being a new player in the industry can give edge.

BoE, BoC & the Fed: Macro Matters

Wed, 27 Oct 2021 15:03:17 -0000

This Macro Matters edition, hosted by BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey, focuses on central banks' outlooks. Dan Hanson of Bloomberg Economics discusses the Bank of England and his view that higher inflation now may push the bank to hike too quickly, causing inflation to undershoot after a few years. Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos reviews the Bank of Canada meeting and shares his skepticism of the early hikes the market is pricing. And host Jersey gives his views of the Federal Reserve taper and suggests that the Fed may wait longer than the market is anticipating to hike, which may lead to further yield curve steepening.

Original recording date: October 21, 2021

Consumer Inflation Woes: BI Credit

Mon, 25 Oct 2021 12:59:52 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of consumer analysts including Jody Lurie, senior travel and leisure analyst, Mary Ross Gilbert, senior U.S. consumer products analyst, and Louise Parker, European consumer staples analyst, join Robert Schiffman to share their outlook for consumer credits, with systemic risk and inflationary pressures showing signs of rising.

Factor-Based Investments & Smart-Beta Revolution: EM Lens

Thu, 14 Oct 2021 15:16:51 -0000

In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, Alessio de Longis, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Tactical Asset Allocation for Invesco, joins Damian Sassower of Bloomberg Intelligence to discuss the smart-beta revolution, as factor-based investment expands from equities to fixed income and foreign exchange. De Longis shares his views on factor-based investment performance across different beta regimes, and highlights the growing importance of emerging market risk premia. The two focus on the importance of active management, portfolio diversification, market liquidity and tail risk when taking a factor-based approach to investment.

Macro Matters G10 FX Strategy

Wed, 13 Oct 2021 12:48:13 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman, who discusses why she thinks the dollar has more to rally - regardless of circumstances, how elections might affect the euro, and why Sterling remains at risk. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst Angelo Manolatos gives an update on how much the Federal Reserve's securities holds have grown as it prepares to reduce purchases next month.

State of Distressed Debt

Mon, 11 Oct 2021 12:53:15 -0000

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI Bankruptcy Litigation Analyst Negisa Balluku and Distressed Credit Analyst Philip Brendel join Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss the momentum in high yield markets, what may stop it and when. Also discussed: The latest for Washington Prime Group, Aeromexico, Latam Airlines, Intelsat and in Hertz’s Make-Whole battle.

Emerging Market Debt & Re-rating in China: EM Lens

Mon, 11 Oct 2021 12:50:55 -0000

In this EM Lens & Look-Through edition, host and BI Chief Emerging Markets Credit Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Jonny Goulden, managing director of global EM research at JP Morgan. Goulden shares his outlook for emerging market debt, as the asset class can add incremental returns to global fixed income portfolios in an environment characterized by historically low developed market bond yields. The two discuss the relative allure of EM carry, the re-rating in China credit and the risks associated with central bank tapering.

Macro Economic Matters and the Fed

Mon, 11 Oct 2021 12:49:17 -0000

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong who discusses her path to join Bloomberg, what she's looking at for the future of the economy, and why she thinks a 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike isn't out of the question. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Bloomberg Intelligence Associate Analyst Angelo Manolatos reviews the distribution of the FOMC's "dot plot" that now shows half the committee thinks an interest rate increase could come in 2022. He also mentions how market pricing differs from the newly minted 2024 dots.

BI Credit - Bank Exposure to Evergrande

Thu, 07 Oct 2021 15:40:56 -0000

In this Credit Chat edition, our global team of BI analysts including Jeroen Julius (Europe), Arnold Kakuda (U.S.) and Himanshu Bakshi (Canada, Australia) join Robert Schiffman to share their views on the outlook for bank and financial credits, with systematic risk and rates showing signs of rising.